BITA’s nearest competitor is ATHM. It’s growing slower but has profits. Trades at 6.6x CY sales vs 2.9x for BITA. Trades at 16.4x next years EPS estimate vs 13.3 for BITA.
BITA had a 93% q-o-q rev growth last quarter vs 71% for ATHM. I think these have gotten a little overdone on the downside, especially BITA.
Also has $800M+ in the bank. I actually found this company back when it was trading at $8. They received an investment from Autotrader or Cars.com, can't remember which. I think it's worth a try here. Two gaps overhead: 37.37 and 42.68. about 20% and 40% from here.
Selling into very tepid bounces in 'oversold' asset classes. All positions off (or will be off end of day).
The vast majority of mutual funds stick to large-cap blue chip stocks. This has made it difficult to spot the turmoil beneath. US small caps off -7%. China has crashed. Taiwan has crashed. Brazil has crashed. Russia has crashed. Commodities now trading below 2009 levels. Should US indexes follow suit, all above asset classes will likely plunge even further (and percentage-wise even harder) from already washed-out levels. Unfair, but that's how it works.
You need to be careful looking at foreign stock markets these days because the US $ rise has made the foreign ETF's look much worse than the local markets. So, for example, the RSX (Russia ETF) looks bad, but the Russian market is actually up 40% since it bottomed in early 2014 - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/INDEXCF:IND
Maybe it's time. Saw that nat gas production is going down, as nat gas drilling has been dead for a long time, but now with oil drilling falling, gas byproducts also falling, so maybe the supply / demand falling into a better place.
But going to be tough to time the bottom for sure.
Landry and saut are two guys I listen / read fairly regularly. If I was more of a longer term investor I probably wouldn't but they tend to be more in tune with shorter term directions of markets.
I still think the market is ready to move higher. I don't think you would see stocks like tol and dhi doing so well in the midst of a downturn.
I am back in town now, and I see that producers added a minimal amount of hedges as of last Tuesday. Since gold is now pretty much at the same level as of last Tuesday, I think it is safe to keep all gold-related positions, because a rally that started with such low levels of producer hedging cannot die after just a minimal increase in the level of producer hedges.
No way I agree with this. At least there's no technical reason for making this statement. GDX is still below 2008 lows, for example, and is in a clear downtrend.
A bull case can be made for Gold to have a nice bounce if the Fed does not raise rates in September. I think a lot of the gold weakness is because people are starting to price in higher rates and increasing the opportunity costs of holding gold, but if rates don't rise, gold could have a good move upwards.
Problem is we have no way of knowing what the fed will do in Sept.
Look at how nat gas has performed since the 2008 peak. Why can't oil do the same? The demand for nat gas has been steadily rising as coal is pushed out. Yet the price is still in the $2's. This is what keeps me from investing in the energy space. Too many are looking for a bounce in my opinion. What if we have $40 oil for the next decade?
The US has a ton of NG, PBR looks like that stop of 4.97 is coming on like a train, and it is possible for oil to stay in the 40 for a decade but I think the Saudi's could not handle the self inflicted pain well. If that does happen think of the unintended consequences of that decision.
I guess we have to assemble a comprehensive list of pros and cons. If $40 oil where's the incentive to drill wells that also produce gas? I think the Pennsylvania shale is essentially coal bed shale and full of gas, more so than oil. The other coal that BTU mines isn't heaped in a pile it's spread out in a thin vane so impossible to stick a straw in the ground to collect gas?
REXX/SWN - Notice these Utica plays aren't tanking. CNX is there too, right, punching gas wells in the Utica shale. My understanding of this shale is it's basically a huge pile of coal that outgasses as it decays.
TREX- There are better (and more costly) choices out there. My clients are more inclined to use natural 'renewable' resources that hot plastic decks. This one is getting a lot of looks. It's really nice. Careful, turn down your volume. http://www.thermoryusa.com/home
Mark do you think that would be nice for patio attached to the house? Most use pavers here which I do not like all that much. The other choice would be just using tile. The area is small 420 sqft. What do you think?
Wood is fine in a dry climate but I can tell you even the new (less toxic) treated 5/8 deck lumber is complete junk. I think the plastic stuff requires the joists be closer together then it's fine. Anything dark gets hot.
Another pretty quiet day. SPY has been between 204 and 212 since the start of February. That's a long time in a very small range - guess we just have to wait for a break up or break down.
I really think there's a good chance the market will rip higher. I have seen so many trader comments suggesting caution and waiting for pullbacks. Just seems like we won't get that but instead we will see a move to 2175 or so. That's probably where we could expect a 5% or so pullback.
So much for TWTR. Now everything is dead.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of dead, grabbed some BITA
ReplyDeleteBITA’s nearest competitor is ATHM. It’s growing slower but has profits. Trades at 6.6x CY sales vs 2.9x for BITA. Trades at 16.4x next years EPS estimate vs 13.3 for BITA.
ReplyDeleteBITA had a 93% q-o-q rev growth last quarter vs 71% for ATHM. I think these have gotten a little overdone on the downside, especially BITA.
Also has $800M+ in the bank. I actually found this company back when it was trading at $8. They received an investment from Autotrader or Cars.com, can't remember which. I think it's worth a try here. Two gaps overhead: 37.37 and 42.68. about 20% and 40% from here.
DeleteREXX - Not on your screen?
ReplyDeleteCECE - lol, was watching this one and it began tanking. Been looking for it awhile now and found it again.
ReplyDeleteAKS - No worries, this one will be back to $3 by Mon or Tue, I'm sure.
ReplyDeleteSORL- Wow, what a range.
ReplyDeleteSelling into very tepid bounces in 'oversold' asset classes. All positions off (or will be off end of day).
ReplyDeleteThe vast majority of mutual funds stick to large-cap blue chip stocks. This has made it difficult to spot the turmoil beneath. US small caps off -7%. China has crashed. Taiwan has crashed. Brazil has crashed. Russia has crashed. Commodities now trading below 2009 levels. Should US indexes follow suit, all above asset classes will likely plunge even further (and percentage-wise even harder) from already washed-out levels. Unfair, but that's how it works.
I've made money doing that the whole way down.
DeleteYou need to be careful looking at foreign stock markets these days because the US $ rise has made the foreign ETF's look much worse than the local markets. So, for example, the RSX (Russia ETF) looks bad, but the Russian market is actually up 40% since it bottomed in early 2014 - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/INDEXCF:IND
DeleteTrue. Of course, unless I bought a hedged fund, I'm still way down. The same can be said of gold prices. But I understand your point.
DeleteWhat are the chances (circumstances) this reverses or is there no opportunity?
DeleteIt's been a crazy year. A little over 3 months ago, tof was a raging bull on Taiwan. Now the TSEC is -17% lower and at the 52-wk low.
ReplyDeleteYeah I saw that and am glad I got out of dodge. I do wonder if that market is due for a move up though.
DeleteWhat happened to the recovery?
ReplyDeleteI sold out of BITA at the open, thankfully. Bought PYPL in the high $37s. Plan on sitting on the PYPL for a long time and adding if it goes lower.
ReplyDeleteEnergy name buying/adds dominated the 13-F's I've seen.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's time. Saw that nat gas production is going down, as nat gas drilling has been dead for a long time, but now with oil drilling falling, gas byproducts also falling, so maybe the supply / demand falling into a better place.
DeleteBut going to be tough to time the bottom for sure.
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
DeleteSaut still sticking with the oil has bottomed call, but open to changing his opinion if things change. Interesting spot right now.
"Let me be blunt. If anyone of you out there believes that anyone in our business is going to be right all of the time, I have some news for you."
DeleteJeff Saut
Looks like another trendless day. Down open, bounce, then probably mill around without much change.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we get nothing till September this year. Still think this resolves to the upside, but sure in no rush.
Energy- Anyone have the time to try and track and BK's or takeunders of the small guys??
ReplyDeleteMaybe the best energy play out there is TSLA?
DeletePBR 5-10 years no-brainer
Deletebut just in case 4.97 stop out so as to avoid a SD.
DeleteOr just average down every Q or semi for a few years.
TOF or anyone, do you know who Mr. Landry is of whom Saut writes about?
ReplyDeleteMy guess is its Dave Landry.
Deletehttp://www.tradingmarkets.com/recent/why_this_man_is_one_of_wall_streets_top_one_percent-659580.html
Yeah it's Dave Landry.
DeleteLandry and saut are two guys I listen / read fairly regularly. If I was more of a longer term investor I probably wouldn't but they tend to be more in tune with shorter term directions of markets.
DeleteI still think the market is ready to move higher. I don't think you would see stocks like tol and dhi doing so well in the midst of a downturn.
I am back in town now, and I see that producers added a minimal amount of hedges as of last Tuesday. Since gold is now pretty much at the same level as of last Tuesday, I think it is safe to keep all gold-related positions, because a rally that started with such low levels of producer hedging cannot die after just a minimal increase in the level of producer hedges.
ReplyDeleteRyan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick 25m25 minutes ago
ReplyDeleteCheck out gold and miners. Just killed past 52-wks, now leading. Major change in play here? I think so. $GLD $GDX
No way I agree with this. At least there's no technical reason for making this statement. GDX is still below 2008 lows, for example, and is in a clear downtrend.
DeleteGold and PM investment for fun and no profit.
DeleteCECE/NEWM are doing well I see.
ReplyDeleteBXMT - Breaking out, you guys in?
ReplyDeleteI'm in for the div play.
DeleteNice, seems to be working not just div but cap gain as well. PSEC is my div play but have been watching BXMT
DeleteCrickets......
ReplyDeleteJust hanging out at the pool.
DeleteNot all stocks were DOWN today, but MMYT/CBI/FCAU were, of course.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/08/17/goldman-cuts-yuan-forecast-sees-pressure-on-baht-ringgit-won-taiwan-dollar/
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ryanmcraver.com/blog/2015/8/16/traditional-pay-tv-negative-q1-abysmal-q2
ReplyDeleteThis gave me a laugh.
ReplyDeletei'm concerned now,
how do you kill a Kardashizombie?
shoot it in the ass where the brains are?
She can carry kids on that rear chair like an African woman.
DeleteI am a longer term investor, but also find Jeff Saut a good read and read every week.
ReplyDeleteDon't know anything about Landry.
A bull case can be made for Gold to have a nice bounce if the Fed does not raise rates in September. I think a lot of the gold weakness is because people are starting to price in higher rates and increasing the opportunity costs of holding gold, but if rates don't rise, gold could have a good move upwards.
ReplyDeleteProblem is we have no way of knowing what the fed will do in Sept.
China, there we go again.
ReplyDeleteI keep wondering about TREX as a play on housing...Mark - do you use this at all?
ReplyDeleteTrex is also like a short on oil, or at least low oil should be a tailwind considering plastics are used..
DeleteLook at how nat gas has performed since the 2008 peak. Why can't oil do the same? The demand for nat gas has been steadily rising as coal is pushed out. Yet the price is still in the $2's. This is what keeps me from investing in the energy space. Too many are looking for a bounce in my opinion. What if we have $40 oil for the next decade?
ReplyDeleteThe US has a ton of NG, PBR looks like that stop of 4.97 is coming on like a train, and it is possible for oil to stay in the 40 for a decade but I think the Saudi's could not handle the self inflicted pain well. If that does happen think of the unintended consequences of that decision.
DeleteI guess we have to assemble a comprehensive list of pros and cons. If $40 oil where's the incentive to drill wells that also produce gas? I think the Pennsylvania shale is essentially coal bed shale and full of gas, more so than oil. The other coal that BTU mines isn't heaped in a pile it's spread out in a thin vane so impossible to stick a straw in the ground to collect gas?
DeleteBXE - Still nowhere near $10, notice it's going the other way?
ReplyDeleteREXX/SWN - Notice these Utica plays aren't tanking. CNX is there too, right, punching gas wells in the Utica shale. My understanding of this shale is it's basically a huge pile of coal that outgasses as it decays.
ReplyDeleteTREX- There are better (and more costly) choices out there. My clients are more inclined to use natural 'renewable' resources that hot plastic decks. This one is getting a lot of looks. It's really nice. Careful, turn down your volume. http://www.thermoryusa.com/home
ReplyDeleteFeel the beat.
DeleteMark do you think that would be nice for patio attached to the house? Most use pavers here which I do not like all that much. The other choice would be just using tile. The area is small 420 sqft. What do you think?
WMT not feeling the beat.
DeleteMark never mind, I think the termites would like it.
DeleteWood is fine in a dry climate but I can tell you even the new (less toxic) treated 5/8 deck lumber is complete junk. I think the plastic stuff requires the joists be closer together then it's fine. Anything dark gets hot.
DeleteCENX - I thought they might take this under $5 but that didn't happen (yet).
ReplyDeleteInteresting article
ReplyDeletehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11805523/Doomsday-clock-for-global-market-crash-strikes-one-minute-to-midnight-as-central-banks-lose-control.html
ENPH magic number today is right where it's at. 5.25. Let's see if she holds.
ReplyDeleteWonder if $5 is defended or it just knives on through......
DeleteMAC - Teachers union not doing too bad on that one, collecting dividend.
GM might import Buicks from China.
ZINC - There ya go, the pump campaign has ended.
ReplyDeleteWow, all this over communist China?
ReplyDeleteMMYT - Okay, why isn't this one down 5%, eh? That's what I wanna know.
ReplyDeletegive it some time!
DeleteAnother pretty quiet day. SPY has been between 204 and 212 since the start of February. That's a long time in a very small range - guess we just have to wait for a break up or break down.
ReplyDeleteObviously financials and tech are holding this together.
DeleteAGM - Sure seems like there's a lot of interest.
ReplyDeletePMT - Looks like bear flag.
ReplyDeleteDo you guys ever mention stocks you've been watching?
i'm hiding under my desk so i haven't been watching.
DeleteTCBI - Watch this one to gauge likelihood of Texas recession?
ReplyDeleteI really think there's a good chance the market will rip higher. I have seen so many trader comments suggesting caution and waiting for pullbacks. Just seems like we won't get that but instead we will see a move to 2175 or so. That's probably where we could expect a 5% or so pullback.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete