Tuesday, August 25, 2015
8/25/15 Take Me to the Pilot
(a) Never chase.
(b) Size appropriately.
(c) Take hits immediately when wrong.
The point of having trading rules (ideally, ones which suit your personality and have withstood the test of time) is control. The three above allow me to manage risk and remain in control of each trade.
(a) 'Chasing' almost always (but not invariably) leads to a bad experience as the market will test your conviction.
(b) There are no trades with zero risk, which is the only time you should be 'all in.'
(c) When you're wrong, admit it and move on to a better set-up. The better set-up may even be the reverse of your original trade.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Wow - left to go golfing this aft and the Dow was around 16,200 and I get off the course and it's 15,666.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't seem like anything newswise happened, so I guess it was just too many sellers. Maybe we need 1 more down swoosh to make a real, firm bottom.
Overall though, I'm pretty happy with how my stocks acted (22 up, 9 down).
What's your gold bug golfing bud's take on miners right now?
ReplyDeleteThe hard core guy says it's the best buying opportunity for gold in years and is buying more. He also sold all of his other stocks. His average cost on gold is around $1,250, so he's underwater, but still a believer.
DeleteThe soft core guy is still buying the principal protected stocks (basically guaranteed 0 downside, but upside matches market capped at 4%)
Futures about to go thru the floorboards.
ReplyDeleteThat may not be a bad thing. Panic in the futures market wouldn't hurt.
Delete1937 scenario starting to become a conceivable option if we take out the October lows without much of a bounce
ReplyDeleteNice turnaround in futures...so far
DeleteFunny tweet on Hussman
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/michaelbatnick/status/636281214165389314/photo/1
Haha
DeleteGuesses on pain trade? Gotta be gap up no?
ReplyDeleteLooks like this is the case. Futures up huge
DeleteGotta be tough being a day-trader in the current environment.
DeleteSmooth sailing for B&H...
DeleteAny thoughts on the flash crashes that occurred Monday, pos or neg phenomenon?
ReplyDeleteOSK - Received the contract, I was pretty sure that was in the bag considering LMT doesn't need it.
ReplyDeleteOne of many things that makes me feel there is no crash on the horizon is Warren Buffet making that big Precision Castparts acquisition. Not that he is a market timer, but he does not buy overly expensive things and shows valuations are reasonable. Of course, there are certain areas of the market which are very expensive, like IBB, but that is normal and not really a concern.
ReplyDeleteI believe he still has a big cash position though right?
DeleteYep. He keeps a large float to support the insurance business and possible catastrophes, but the businesses he owns also generate a ton of cash every quarter he needs to deploy.
DeleteAnother green morning - let's see it can stay that way today.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure.
DeleteLL - Is there no place for cheap flooring for the masses? (Not everyone can afford the very best)
ReplyDeleteBought RUSS again at $52.5 pre market. I've been sticking with cash at the close and fading big moves. Been working so far...
ReplyDeleteGroundhog day! :)
DeleteYou've been clamouring for it, so here it is!!!.....ENPH magic number for today is 3.69!
ReplyDeleteSEDG seems to be more popular? If you've traveled to Israel, you'd know it's desert and solar works well there even at night! :)
DeleteThere must be some reason stimulus policies aren't cohesive.
ReplyDeleteDUST - We should own this one b/c PMs are going down regardless of what the equities market does. If equities margin calls occur gold will be sold or if equities rally people will hop out of PMs and join the equities rally. Just look at PM miners, this tells you there's no physical demand (they're all losing money at historic prices).
GDX. Holly crap. I hadn't looked at this in a while. Surprised.
ReplyDeleteFor PLAYERS only....GDX magic number for today is 13.00! So Hit It!
DeleteWonder when the flurry of bankruptcies finally arrives? Only then, following the washout, can gold even think about rallying (there will be no producers thus no oversupply).
DeleteThere ya go, buy it!
DeleteIts a global meltdown play. If 1,820 gives way then there's some credence to that scenario.
DeleteIf there wasn't other things to buy, I bet a long GDX short GLD trade would work out very well.
DeleteLots of stuff tanking, just look around a bit you'll notice.
Delete2009 - Recall gold tanked, with the equities market. True physical demand shows up on bottom line of producers balance sheets. Price doesn't matter if you can't sell your product.
DeleteKCLI still is very good in my opinion. At the current price of $46.35, you'll make 13.75% in 4 months or 50% annualized. With almost no risk which is nice in this environment.
ReplyDelete$10, just like BXE.
DeleteYou can't compare to BXE. BXE is a small cap energy company in a horrid energy market. All commodity companies stock prices are driven by the underlying commodity, and small caps have great leverage both to the upside and downside.
DeleteKCLI is a well-capitalized, mid-cap insurance company who wants to buy back some shares to avoid SEC filing charges.
BXE is the worst performing small cap in a horrid market, and loaded with unsustainable debt. Would that be fair to say?
DeleteKCLI - Average down?
ReplyDeleteSequestration nine weeks away. Automatic unless Congress votes.
ReplyDeleteEVBS - I guess this one gets whacked had, sits right in middle of the gov contractor hotbed.
Laptop Crash:
ReplyDeleteArrived in Baltimore Sunday night, land of the crab cakes yum, laptop dies. I have no real fast reliable device on which to trade so just decided to wait for return trip.
Good luck with this volatility and trade well. Wish I were in the thick of battle.
Nice AAPL pick up 2nd.
CP - Yeah that's what I was talking about (Gold crashing with stocks in 2009). I doubt people expect another meltdown in stocks...I don't. But there have been plenty of sell signals from monthly charts that causes me to take almost no risk anymore until we get better technical setups to buy stocks.
ReplyDeleteCashin just had a great quote:
ReplyDelete"Theres not much more powerful of a force on earth than a free market that has changed its mind"
Yesterday's morning spike in GDX did trigger my buy stop order at $14.40. At mid-day, it seemed like the drop in GLD has stabilized and it could simply be making another higher low. Today's action shows that GLD is likely to get back to previous lows, or maybe even lower. SLV is already making new lows. It is unfortunate that the market crash has derailed a nice rally in GDX. In the spirit of 2nd_ave's head post, I am admitting that I should not be in GDX right now, and hence I just sold my position.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I see that VIX is staying above 30, but the price action seems to be stabilizing. The market might be putting in one of those wild volatility bottoms. So I just sold 2 SPY $215 puts, which I purchased a couple of months ago when SPY hit 210. Moved 1/2 of that money into January 2016 $25 put on VXX, since we know that VIX does not stay above 30 for a long time.
ReplyDeleteSilver - $1 from my target, wonder if it overshoots?
ReplyDeleteMoving the other 1/2 of the money I got today from selling SPY puts into 5 VXX January 2016 $25 puts on VXX.
ReplyDeleteSold my RUSS at a loss at $52.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we may finish strong today, which would be the first day since this downturn started - maybe a change in character helping show the bottom is in.
ReplyDeleteSo far, so good. What's the pain trade for tomorrow? Continuation of today I would presume.
DeleteKCLI- What are the max's again?
ReplyDeleteCan buy 249 shares in an account. 250 and higher and you don't get teh cash.
DeleteIn the past, I lost money pretty much every time I purchased options. The only consistent exception has been put options on VXX, if purchased when VIX was above 30 (I realized the benefit of this trade only after 2009, so I exclude the rare period in late 2008 - early 2009 when VIX stayed above 30 for a record of 7 months). I suspect the VXX puts I purchased today when VIX was at 35 will not be an exception to that rule...
ReplyDeleteWe're finally seeing a bounce, and I believe this one may have legs. DJIA now +525 points! I don't think this rally gets faded, at least not for a while.
ReplyDelete(a) Opened a position in RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) earlier at the 1030 window. EEM was bidding around 32.20 at the time, and is now 32.71.
(b) Bonds are off about -2%, no doubt a 'contra' fade to the strength in equities.
(c) GDX (miners) are off another -4%. I can't explain my faith in miners. It's close to the Biblical definition of faith in things unseen! I simply foresee a multi-month rally in the sector that will take off with virtually no passengers on board and continue for an extended launch. My position is small enough that I've taken a 'rule breaker' approach-> it's moved against me for sure.
Cara brainwashing I suspect - haha. I wonder how he is doing over there. Haven't checked in months.
DeleteThought hard about buying today - was thinking of adding to RYCEY (Rolls Royce), but held off. Guess I'm a little gun shy after the big moves we've had. If the bottom does hold, I'm sure I will be able to find things to add to at reasonable prices before they all get away.
ReplyDeleteI bet we get some follow through tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI grabbed a little TNA for a catch up trade at $62.74. I may off it after hours.
DeleteMeant to say I bought at $64.74. Sold at $65.
DeleteMy two cents on KCLI> if both the occurrence and the price of the buyout was 100% certain, there would be little volatility in price. So why the recent swings? Management can say anything they want. Prices don't lie. Not sure what to make of it.
ReplyDeleteMon pulled its bid for SYT. Obviously different circumstances but gives you a sense for what could always happen.
DeleteMON pulled the bid because SYT rejected it. If not, MON would have bought.
DeleteThe reason KCLI is being pulled down is you have 2 sets of shareholders, the small guys who hold under 250 shares and are waiting for the December payout (although some of these guys may be making forced sales). But you also have large holders who may be happy to sell their shares in the $46 range, because they were $43 a couple weeks ago and will not get the $52.50 regardless, because of their large holdings.
If this were a regular arb play, you'd see the big funds jump in and the stock would be over $50 now. But I've traded a lot of arb stocks over the years and a bad market can pull even really good deals down just because people need to sell. I really don't think the pullback from $48 to $46 is any concern about the deal being done, but more just market sentiment and some larger guys selling.
And this deal is not 100% certain, but I'd say at least 99%. There is a solid business case for management to save $7 million per year and at $52.50, they are getting a substantial discount to book value of over $70. It wouldn't make sense to try and cancel now and redo again later at a lower price as the stock price could well be higher in 6 months.
There's been some risk with M&A that I've noticed of late so I think maybe that's why there's a discount? M&A was a sure fire way to make a stock go higher but that has completely turned on its head. As a result, maybe there's just a lot of fear about deals in general now?
DeleteHere is the list of deals completed and cancelled from 2014 - http://www.mergerinvesting.com/history
DeleteNot sure why, but 6 didn't close out of about 150. Could be the buyer couldn't get financing, the government wouldn't approve, the seller couldn't get the votes - you'd have to look into each one. But by far and away they do close. Even in 2008, with all that turmoil, there was only one big deal I can recall not closing, MMM buying another chemical company which I can't remember and the Ontario Teachers Pension buy of BCE.
Here is the list of upcoming mergers - http://www.mergerinvesting.com/pendingmergers
You'll see a lot of the annualized profits are around 5%. Some are higher, so obviously more risk, but a deal like KCLI would be in the 5% range if it were not for the 250 share limit - I'm quite certain about that.
back to cash at the close. i still think we head lower.
ReplyDeleteI grabbed some SDS after hours at $23.16. I still think we see lower lows...possibly as soon as the end of this week.
ReplyDeleteS&P futures up another .3% so far tonight. Be good to see some follow through tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWhen I look at the YTD chart for the market, it is funny how it basically did nothing all year, then in 3 days starting August 20th, dropped 10%. Flash crash in 2010 was about the same magnitude. To me it seems like the crash this year was similar in nature, but spread over 3 days due to better market controls. After the 2010 crash, the market based around the lows for about 4 months before embarking on the next bull leg. Maybe we get something similar now.
I think I own the only 2 stocks that were RED today.
ReplyDeleteThere's something wrong with BXE besides oil. It was one of the first to be sold off, lucky "us"..
DeleteDon't look now but GOOGL's gap up obligation was addressed and then off to the races. Thought I'd mention that since nobody else did.
ReplyDeleteNVDA - Same for this one.
DeleteGOOGL and SUNE joining forces?
ReplyDeleteMark - Are you still holding GPRO? Starting to get interesting to me...but I'm not sure it's worthy of a 25 p/e given it's just a hardware company.
ReplyDeleteSold sds at 22.8 and bought tna at 65.7
ReplyDeleteLooks like Bill Ackman went from +10% at the end of July to negative for the YTD in August:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/26/us-hedgefunds-ackman-idUSKCN0QV2E220150826
3.7% GDP - Doesn't seem terrible to me.
ReplyDeleteKRE - Looks good here, no?
ReplyDeleteNEWM - I'd love to know something about Leon Cooperman's connection with this one. It's the only thing he's bought lately?
ReplyDeleteAKS - Wow man, it's up in before market but isn't steel in surplus?
ReplyDeleteBID - Good entry on this one?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yep, still have GPRO. Small position and will add at some point.
ReplyDeletePSEC - Ex-div 8/27, monthly
ReplyDeleteorders in for KCLI.
ReplyDeletePkay, I guess that's it if you didn't guess right you missed the move?
ReplyDeleteCENX - Okay, WTF....
ReplyDeleteAdded to Rolls Royce (RYCEY). More than doubled my position.
ReplyDeleteEnergy stocks looking good today. TD out with a report last night showing how nat gas weighted stocks are getting dragged down with the price of oil, even though nat gas prices have held in well and Sept is typically the best month for nat gas.
ReplyDeleteNo doubt in my mind that if energy price can bounce, many of these small cap energy companies are very cheap and will boucen strongly if people believe the commodity prices hold.
But still just watching for now - been too many false bottoms in energy this year.
DeleteI'm expecting that too, and probably millions of others. I'll also wait and see. Unfortunately I won't be able to watch today though.
DeleteREXX - Is that a bull flag forming this morning?
DM - Up smartly, Have a look at it if you don't mind.
ENPH- Man, that's got to be discouraging.
ReplyDeleteAAAAnnnnnddddd.... TBT is red, lol....
ReplyDeleteThe global markets continue to maneuver their way out of a nosedive.
ReplyDelete(a) EEM (Emerging Markets) +2.5%, rocking and rolling on strength in commodities and a +5% rally in Shanghai. In my opinion, it's still a bear market, and I plan to close RYWVX (Rydex 2x EM) at the 1030 window. That said, the most violent rallies occur in bear markets (driven by squeezed shorts), so the rally may well defy logic and run further than anyone can foresee. I'll deal with that later if it unfolds.
(b) Copper prices spiking. I opened a position in FCX (Freeport McMoran), and closed within minutes for a +10% gain...only to see prices run another +5%. Volume is high, so the rally has legs and I may elect to reopen.
(c) GDX (miners) +2%, but action is muted.
(d) Crude +4%.
(e) DJIA up another +200 points.
(f) TLT (the long bond) +0.4%.
With prices whipping around so much, it's hard to identify trend changes.
ReplyDeleteAZO - Added to US1 list...... After a huge rally, makes the list. Not much value in this list me thinks....
ReplyDeleteSCCO - The under $25 trade still seems to be working..... Amazing.
ReplyDeleteSold TNA at $67.65
ReplyDeleteLong SDS at $22.32.
ReplyDeleteSold $22.42.
DeleteStill sticking with day trades and hoping for a dip to get into some stuff.
Well, really, just waiting for a low risk entry. I don't think after a 130 pt move up in the S&P would constitute as low risk.
DeleteBought back into SDS at $22.2. just another day trade. Not sure if the upside energy is spent in the short term but seems like a pullback is in order. We'll see
ReplyDeleteMy thinking is the dollar is rallying like crazy, which will bring back the concerns about its impact on earnings.
DeleteMy only concern is they could rally the market all the way until the end of the day.
DeleteTook SDS off for a loss. Looks like they may run this into the close.
DeleteGood commentary from Jeff Saut today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raymondjames.com/multimedia2.htm?url=Saut_Daily.wma&player=wmp&target=int&width=300&height=0
CP,
ReplyDeletere DM, I have no interest in utility stocks completely as all the ones I have looked at are quite overpriced compared to their traditional valuations, growth and the market. I think the only thing holding them up is their yield and perception of safety, both of which I think get hit by rising rates.
I have not looked at DM in particular, so there may be some company specific things which make it buyable, but I think all utilities will generally be facing strong headwinds.
If I was going to buy energy, I would go for E&P if I felt aggressive and integrated if I was more cautious.
I ended up buying back into TNA around $68.7. I was clearly wrong selling it…for now.
ReplyDeleteI'm tempted to go all Chinese on this rally. ie BIDU / BITA
Sold after hours $68.88
Delete(a) RYWVX closed the day +9.17%, or +3% above my 1030 closing price. I'm not surprised. I invariably underestimate the power of short squeezes.
ReplyDelete(b) FCX (Freeport McMoran). I completed a second round trip for another +10% gain and was pleased with my timing...until the stock shot up an additional +17% after hours on news that Carl Icahn has taken an 8.5% stake in the company!
(c) GDX (miners) managed to shake out even more traders heading into the final hour: http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AqtAzL9XG84SmM.0k0q0S.onv7gF?uhb=uhb2&fr=uh3_finance_vert_gs&type=2button&s=gdx Note the nosedive and recovery in the last thirty minutes of trading. There are virtually no fellow passengers on the train, which is the way I like it.
(d) Tiny position in SPY puts near the close. The major advantage of options is skin in the game with very little capital at risk.
The port is up almost +3% today. Short squeezes often lead to the largest short-term percentage gains.
"I have not looked at DM in particular, so there may be some company specific things which make it buyable"
ReplyDeleteI didn't think you'd look, you have your agenda to propagate.
KCLI - Who's agenda does this fit, DOWN TODAY was the move.
ReplyDeleteWell, I guess you are thinking of Mark who was trying to buy today and hopefully got a good price.
DeleteKCLI and FCAU were my only 2 red stocks today. I guess I can see KCLI as it was down much less than most stocks in the pullback because of the support of the buyback, so less room to bounce, but surprised about FCAU with no real news.
Have you looked at DM yet? NO! Why? Agenda.
DeleteI wrote up above about DM, didn't you see it?
DeleteYes I saw it. Nothing about what you mentioned seems correct, though. 1) It's not a utility and 2) The dividend is practically meaningless. Conclusion: You didn't look at it. I think I haven't been keen on it for reasons other than you mentioned but have begun to warm to it based on recent developments in the industry they operate.
DeleteSCCO - Nice move, I told you guys it would b/c it always has.
ReplyDeleteALDW - My dividend value play is still moving up. ROR will likely flatten, my guess.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - A one year downtrend so far, on that chart.
ReplyDeleteNWLI had a double from the start of 2013 to Nov. 2014, so I think it could just be working off the overbought condition. Plus $280, which it got to in Nov, 2014 pretty much matched its all-time highs from 2007/2008, so it could just be having trouble breaking out.
DeleteBut there is superb value in NWLI if you are patient and it has hit book value, which is $437 and going up every quarter during each of the previous market cycles and I think it will do so again this time. So, I think it more than doubles from here.
"I think it could just be working off the overbought condition."
DeletePractically the same could be said for $US
The more I look at stock charts, it really seems like Monday was a flash crash. Look at AAPL. $112 last Thursday, $112 today, but down 17% at the lows Monday - crazy.
ReplyDeleteYes, I picked up ALDW that day. Another one I've highlighted numerous times lately.
DeleteNVDA - I gave this one to you guys too.
ReplyDeleteEXAS - Could be breakaway gap. I do and have been watching 2n'ds pick b/c it's interesting but have come to wonder if some bad ideas are being presented on purpose. "I don't care about your money." is a pretty good reference point I believe.
ReplyDeleteBC - Here's another one, whip out your pencils. If you "just noticed" the flash crash, you're excused from class.
ReplyDeleteSilver - It appears I'm not the only one anticipating $13, the chart indicates thus:
ReplyDelete"The symmetrical triangle on the weekly graph has an unmet target of 1220. "
Sounds pretty incredible, huh? Well, maybe not considering most other commodities have plunged to 2009 prices. "If you're just noticing".
GM - Insiders have sold 99%, is that called inspiration?
ReplyDeleteCP, haven't heard anyone calling this week a "flash crash", but regardless sarcasm is not good for anyone. We are all trying to figure our way through the markets here and make money together.
ReplyDeleteI'm simply asking from an objective perspective, no fan of repeatedly being blindsided (for obvious reasons).
DeleteBesides, you refuse to discuss both sides of any argument thus you're not capable of being objective.
DeleteI see tweets indicating the Schwab platform is down this morning?
ReplyDeleteFriend of mine went to the Woodward Dream Cruise in Detroit and said GM and Ford had good exhibits, but Dodge was the best. Not a mention or Fiat car in sight, but could go for a ride in a Hellcat and they'd take you on a track and do burnouts and drifts and things.
ReplyDeleteHe's a car guy and said it was the most popular and interesting one.
Schwab is fine here.
ReplyDeleteKCLI- Yes, I got my shares yesterday BB. Thanks for the idea!
ReplyDelete(a) The SPY puts closed near the open for a minor gain (DJIA down -77 points at the morning lows).
ReplyDelete(b) GDX (miners) continue to ramp, currently +3%.
(c) Bonds are strong, TLT +1.2%.
(d) Emerging markets pulling back about -1%.
(e) Waited for FCX (Freeport McMoran) investors to sell the news, and reopened a minor position @ 10.68. Bouncing to 11, and likely to close the position quickly.
Interesting that commodities and the US$ are up today - gives some support to the idea the bottom in commodities is in and not just an inverse US$ play.
DeleteCan we please just close the market for the week now? Thank you.
ReplyDeletemb
Have fun guys, later!
ReplyDeleteBeen busy looking into starting up / buying a business. I've been talking with a company called Guidant Financial that allows you to roll money from your 401k/IRA into buying or starting up a C Corp...without paying an early distribution penalty. We're without a steady stream of income still and the latest roller coaster ride in the market has made me think a lot more about making this move. We have the money set aside to do this and extra money just in case, so it's not really out of necessity but more out of being cautious if things get ugly in the market. Probably should have done this in the beginning of the year before taking a hit recently but can't always time it perfectly.
ReplyDeleteI added to my YRCW and CRNT. I also picked up small positions in FCAU, TREX, VA, and Z.
I also bought back into SHAK...tiny position. I will add to this one over time very slowly, hopefully if it gets back near its IPO price
DeleteBeing somewhat cynical, I'd say we had out week of volatility, now today we are back to our boring range bound days we had the first 7 1/2 months of the year.
ReplyDeleteHard to guess what next week will bring.
BB- When does the stock swap happen for KCLI?
ReplyDeleteThe meeting where the vote will be held is December 15th. Over 66% of the holders are committed to vote yes already, so really just a formality. The money should be in your account a few days later, depending on how quick your broker is.
DeleteFrom the SEC filing:
Effective Date
The Reverse/Forward Stock Split will become effective as of the date that we amend our Articles of Incorporation through the filing of Certificates of Amendment to our Articles of Incorporation with the Secretary of State of the State of Missouri to effect the Reverse/Forward Stock Split or on any later date that the Company may specify in such Certificates of Amendment.
We intend to effect the Reverse/Forward Stock Split soon after the Reverse/Forward Stock Split is approved by our shareholders, subject to final authorization by our Board of Directors, and presently anticipate that the Reverse/Forward Stock Split will become effective on December 16, 2015. Within five business days after the effective date of the Reverse/Forward Stock Split, the Company intends to send to each shareholder of record of fewer than 250 shares of our Stock, and to brokers, banks and other nominees, based on information we receive from them in response to our inquiries, for each owner of fewer than 250 shares of our Stock held in street name, instructions, including letters of transmittal, asking them to surrender their shares of Stock. Upon proper completion, execution and return to us of the letter of transmittal, and the return of the letter of transmittal and accompanying stock certificate(s) for such shares, we will send the payments to these shareholders within five business days of receipt. Therefore, the timing of receipt of payment for these shareholders is dependent upon their proper surrender of their stock certificates and the delivery of properly prepared and executed letters of transmittal. Payment to holders of fewer than 250 shares of our Stock who hold their shares in street name will be made in accordance with the procedures of their broker, bank or other nominee. Any shares of our Stock acquired in connection with the Reverse/Forward Stock Split will be restored to the status of authorized but unissued shares.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/54473/000101410815000202/kcli-pre14a_aug42015.htm
FCX- Ican is losing his juice.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Wouldn't some people consider what your thinking of as 'buying a job'?
ReplyDeleteYeah. For sure
Delete(a) Heading into the close, taking partial profits on miners (which have moved +10% in two days). One thing I've learned about being 'bullish' on a sector: it's possible to be 'right,' but the market will do its best to throw you off. The path prices take on their way to a final destination will include steep inclines AND declines.
ReplyDelete(b) Closing RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) end of day. Bonds have traded higher for two consecutive days, but the buying has been tepid at best.
(c) FCX (Freeport McMoran) was unloaded at 10.97. Now trading @ 10.41.
(d) I believe Emerging Markets are a buy, and that the lows set on Monday will likely stand for some time. However, that doesn't mean we should run out and back up the truck. Keeping an eye on the sector for now.
Good shooting bro.
DeleteWhat do you guys think about oil? Is the worst over? Can it go into a prolonged bear market like nat gas did?
ReplyDeleteReally hard to know. Oil is different from natural gas in that nat gas is often produced as a byproduct and sold regardless of price, but oil is generally a primary product, so more price sensitive. There have been very long bear markets in the oil price, but also some quick rebounds.
DeleteBut with oil, there are so many factors to consider. Supply / demand, technology innovation, geo-political, etc. It's probably Putin and the Saudi's who ultimately decide where things and they seem to be looking at long term maximum cash, so short term, they may be willing to live with more pain.
If oil has bottomed though, a lot of the small cap stocks are very cheap