Saturday, August 29, 2015

8/29/15 Cancel my subscription to a quick resurrection



Monday's spectacular plunge in global indexes notwithstanding, the outlook is 'mixed' at best.

(a) Emerging markets (EM) look best.  Most had already been trending down and near 52-lows.  Despite the probability that a long-term nadir was marked on Monday, it's it's also likely EM indexes will take a long time to recover.

(b) US indexes, on the other hand, are only a few percent off all time highs.  A retest of Monday's lows is likely.  One might argue that back-to-back declines in the DJIA to the 15,6xx level on Tuesday + Wednesday successfully (and sufficiently) tested the lows, a scenario to which I would at best assign 30% odds.

(c) Note that the VVIX (a measure of the expected volatility of volatility itself) reached levels on Monday that exceed those printed during the Lehman Crisis.  Levels remain elevated following the +6% recovery in US indexes later in the week.

Emerging markets represent a long-term buy at current levels, although we may see even better entry points in the next few weeks.  The best scenario for US indexes?  Continued weakness into October in a manner that leads to a washout in sentiment.  Additional steep declines are not necessary (a grinding sideways market will accomplish the same goal), although selling climaxes generally lead to more sustainable recoveries.  
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149 comments:

  1. MarkWAugust 29, 2015 at 2:26 PM

    CNN Breaking News ‏@cnnbrk 1h1 hour ago

    As president, Christie says he'll track undocumented immigrants like FedEx packages. http://cnn.it/1Jpkere

    ReplyDelete
  2. 2nd_aveAugust 29, 2015 at 5:19 PM

    Visiting my folks turned into a traffic nightmare, as 101 was shut down in both directions in Burlingame. Even the surface streets were clogged.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 2nd_aveAugust 30, 2015 at 8:58 AM

    Feet to fire, all indexes will close next Friday at levels lower than where they are now.

    ReplyDelete
  4. MarkWAugust 30, 2015 at 11:00 AM

    I don't know who this guy is but I think I agree with him.

    The sharp rally from Monday's panicky bottom is typical, says Felix Zulauf in a Barron's interview, and these recoveries tend to last for a few days to a few weeks, before the lows eventually get retested. Thanks to the continuing collapse of the Chinese bubble, it's Zulauf's hunch stocks will take out new lows in the next wave of selling.
    Like Latin America in the early 1980s, Mexico in 1994, Asia in 1997, and Russia in 1998, China has a balance-of-payments issue. The currencies involved in those instances fell 40-70%. Even if the yuan only falls 30% (it's down 10% already) - with China being the world's largest exporter - the price deflation translates into declining sales, profit margins, and profits for companies across the globe.
    "Central banks can’t solve the problem by providing more liquidity because liquidity isn’t the issue," says Zulauf. "We have plenty of liquidity; we don’t have enough borrowing capacity." What it means is lower prices, lower inflation, and lower interest rates. "The stock market will have to adjust to this new reality."
    At the start of the year, Zulauf predicted the Fed wouldn't hike rates in 2015, and he's sticking to that view. A tightening now "will probably send the wrong signal to the market, and at the wrong time."

    ReplyDelete
  5. BB CanadaAugust 30, 2015 at 5:37 PM

    Good video on the Rolls Royce investment story. These guys are long, so obviously believe, but seems like a very good risk/reward to me if you have some patience.

    http://www.gwinvestors.com/2015/08/22/rolls-royce-video-the-perfect-storm/

    ReplyDelete
  6. BB CanadaAugust 30, 2015 at 6:08 PM

    Futures down 1.3% so far tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  7. MarkWAugust 30, 2015 at 6:20 PM

    BB- Did you reply about the payout date for KCLI?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownAugust 30, 2015 at 7:17 PM

      Mark - I think he mentioned you can only do $15k per account. Might not be worth it. I mean I guess it's "free" money.

      Delete
    2. BB CanadaAugust 31, 2015 at 4:49 AM

      It is 249 shares per account max, so it depends on how many accounts you have and the size of your portfolio. In Canada, we end up with lots of accounts because of our tax laws so it can build it up to a good amount.

      The meeting where the vote will be held is December 15th. Over 66% of the holders are committed to vote yes already, so really just a formality. The money should be in your account a few days later, depending on how quick your broker is.

      From the SEC filing:

      Effective Date

      The Reverse/Forward Stock Split will become effective as of the date that we amend our Articles of Incorporation through the filing of Certificates of Amendment to our Articles of Incorporation with the Secretary of State of the State of Missouri to effect the Reverse/Forward Stock Split or on any later date that the Company may specify in such Certificates of Amendment.

      We intend to effect the Reverse/Forward Stock Split soon after the Reverse/Forward Stock Split is approved by our shareholders, subject to final authorization by our Board of Directors, and presently anticipate that the Reverse/Forward Stock Split will become effective on December 16, 2015. Within five business days after the effective date of the Reverse/Forward Stock Split, the Company intends to send to each shareholder of record of fewer than 250 shares of our Stock, and to brokers, banks and other nominees, based on information we receive from them in response to our inquiries, for each owner of fewer than 250 shares of our Stock held in street name, instructions, including letters of transmittal, asking them to surrender their shares of Stock. Upon proper completion, execution and return to us of the letter of transmittal, and the return of the letter of transmittal and accompanying stock certificate(s) for such shares, we will send the payments to these shareholders within five business days of receipt. Therefore, the timing of receipt of payment for these shareholders is dependent upon their proper surrender of their stock certificates and the delivery of properly prepared and executed letters of transmittal. Payment to holders of fewer than 250 shares of our Stock who hold their shares in street name will be made in accordance with the procedures of their broker, bank or other nominee. Any shares of our Stock acquired in connection with the Reverse/Forward Stock Split will be restored to the status of authorized but unissued shares.

      http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/54473/000101410815000202/kcli-pre14a_aug42015.htm

      Delete
  8. UnknownAugust 30, 2015 at 7:20 PM

    Been thinking hard about nat gas. I came into this year with 4 ideas that I had fairly strong conviction on:
    (1) FCAU long into the Ferrari IPO.
    (2) Short Biotechs around August.
    (3) Cash/caution in 2nd half of the year.
    (4) Long Nat Gas before the export terminals come online.

    I didn't take advantage of 1-3 like I should have. #4 I will have to have some exposure to.

    ReplyDelete
  9. UnknownAugust 30, 2015 at 7:58 PM

    Wow...this can't be a bull market top:
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-u8W_Zonvmgg/VeCYFwRuTfI/AAAAAAAAEHA/KuIIPS4I12Q/s1600/150828%2BHulbert.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BB CanadaAugust 31, 2015 at 4:54 AM

      And this one:

      http://www.naaim.org/newsresources/naaim-exposure-index/

      Delete
  10. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 5:36 AM

    Long ugaz 1.63

    ReplyDelete
  11. BB CanadaAugust 31, 2015 at 5:40 AM

    Surprise, surprise, it was almost all men on Ashley Madison:

    http://gizmodo.com/almost-none-of-the-women-in-the-ashley-madison-database-1725558944

    ReplyDelete
  12. BB CanadaAugust 31, 2015 at 6:41 AM

    TOF,

    I don't think you've missed it. Lot of excess valuation in IBB that still needs to come out.

    ReplyDelete
  13. MarkWAugust 31, 2015 at 7:30 AM



    Ahmad Chatila bought 9,700 shares last Friday at $9.92, bringing his total stake to 845,672.
    CFO Brian Wuebbels and several directors have also bought shares since Aug. 21. Wuebbels (50K shares) has made the largest purchase.
    SunEdison (SUNE +1%) remains down 69% from a July peak of $33.45. SA author Chris DeMuth, Jr. recently noted over 2/3 of SunEdison's equity was owned by hedge funds (Greenlight Capital, Lone Pine Capital, etc.), by far the highest concentration among top-50 hedge fund investments. "So, when hedge funds want to de-risk, SUNE... trades off by 60%. In such circumstances, the price system breaks and it is nearly impossible to discover a rational clearing price. However, the process can also run in reverse."

    ReplyDelete
  14. BB CanadaAugust 31, 2015 at 8:56 AM

    Oil jumping again today. Maybe bottom is in?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 9:14 AM

      Definitely open to the possibility that a bottom is forming like the 2009 bottom in stocks.

      Delete
    2. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 9:16 AM

      I moved to extremely bullish on stocks in July 2009 after seeing the market break above the 200DMA in May, then retest it in July. I'd be looking for a similar setup here. Might mean buying oil stocks higher but lowers the risk.

      Delete
  15. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 9:38 AM

    I grabbed a small starting position in PGH at $1.36...wish I bought down around $1.25 this morning. It's an oil / nat gas play trading at a significant discount to book. Obviously, if oil stays down its not going to do well. Still pays a dividend and is near breakeven cash flow / EBITDA at these levels oil / nat gas. I personally think Nat Gas will surprise people to the upside and this should help out PGH.

    ReplyDelete
  16. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 10:05 AM

    Long FCX at $7.53. Another play on nat gas.

    ReplyDelete
  17. BB CanadaAugust 31, 2015 at 10:17 AM

    Reading Jeff Saut and he is looking for a retest of the lows as were most of the guys on CNBC at lunch and others. Seems to be the consensus.

    Thinking that the last time I recall there were so many looking for a retest, we never got it and the markets just powered upwards. Could see the same thing happened this time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 10:31 AM

      That's exactly what I've been thinking. But this market is tricky. Seems like bearish consensus has actually been right lately.

      Delete
  18. MarkWAugust 31, 2015 at 10:43 AM

    Dicker likes CHK.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 10:53 AM

      Check out this database for the nat gas rig counts going back 30 years

      http://natgasinvestor.com/us-rig-count

      Not sure how much it matters but with coal being pushed out and liquefied nat gas exporting coming online for the first time ever by the end of the year, I can paint a picture for a spike that puts the 2013/14 spike to shame. I've read people in the media comment about how calm nat gas has been and that it's almost a safe haven for investors...

      Delete
  19. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 11:18 AM

    Sold PGH at $1.405.

    ReplyDelete
  20. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 11:31 AM

    Sold YRCW at $16.7 to $16.75

    ReplyDelete
  21. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 11:41 AM

    The average weekly trading range for nat gas is $0.20, which is the lowest it has been since 1999. Not that it will do it again, but when it got this low in 1999 the price went from $2.30 to $10 within 18 months

    ReplyDelete
  22. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 12:33 PM

    UVXY has held up very well, surprisingly. I believe this is setting the stage for a rally as its pretty obvious to me that people are hedging for more downside.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 12:37 PM

      At least that how I think it would NORMALLY work. Market has been anything but normal.

      Delete
  23. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 12:49 PM

    Long PBR at $5.87. Long FCX at $10.68

    ReplyDelete
  24. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 12:53 PM

    I bought back into YRCW at $16.55 a little earlier. Looking to hold some of this and trade it as well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 1:15 PM

      Sold it into the close. Still leaving myself with a lot of cash. On the one hand, an elevated volatility reading is a good thing if we rally as it could lead to a significant short covering rally. But on the other hand it could be that we're about to go through another nasty drop.

      Delete
  25. 2nd_aveAugust 31, 2015 at 1:29 PM

    Reopened partials in a few miners + EM stocks on pullbacks in both sectors. Fair amount of negative sentiment worked off IMO, especially in the early morning session.

    ReplyDelete
  26. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 2:44 PM

    I kept some FCX on, as well as UGAZ and CHK. Picked up a little GPRO after hours at $46.5

    ReplyDelete
  27. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 3:51 PM

    Cashed in most of my holdings after hours. Sticking with 75% cash, despite sentiment being so bad. I made 2% today which equates to my biggest day in a long time. Taking the gains when I can get em.

    ReplyDelete
  28. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 9:10 PM

    I agree with this guy, especially in light of $40 oil and its impact on Russia:
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000414130

    ReplyDelete
  29. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 6:07 AM

    Chk 7.38

    ReplyDelete
  30. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 6:10 AM

    Ugaz at 1.726 avg

    ReplyDelete
  31. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 6:17 AM

    Commodities are washed out. I'm looking to trade dips in them

    ReplyDelete
  32. BB CanadaSeptember 1, 2015 at 6:46 AM

    Surprised by the big down opening this morning. First of the month is usually good with the mutual fund inflows. Maybe the market is weaker than I think.

    ReplyDelete
  33. 2nd_aveSeptember 1, 2015 at 6:54 AM

    The good news: gold + miners +1%. The bad news: US + Global indexes off over -2%.

    The question is whether buying the dip (BTD) in global stocks will pay off this time. I don't think so.

    (a) Taking advantage of an early BTD reflex to clear all EM positions opened yesterday for minor losses (it’s notable [so far, anyway],that this morning’s lows in stocks like PBR [Petrobras] and VALE are well above yesterday’s lows).
    (b) GDX (miners) +1.7% in early going, and will be adding to positions on weakness.

    My initial ‘take’ is that the broad indexes will close at the day’s lows, which in the case of the DJIA may test an overnight low 16,057 in the futures market.

    ReplyDelete
  34. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 6:55 AM

    Fcx at 10.1 and pgh at 1.35

    ReplyDelete
  35. MarkWSeptember 1, 2015 at 7:07 AM

    I must have had an open order for ENPH...so I'm long.

    ReplyDelete
  36. 2nd_aveSeptember 1, 2015 at 7:14 AM

    Reopening a position in FCX (Freeport McMoran) on the -8% decline this morning to 9.79. Was it only last week that Carl Icahn drove the price to 11.98?

    ReplyDelete
  37. MarkWSeptember 1, 2015 at 7:37 AM

    SUNE- Solar flare.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 8:02 AM

      Seems to me that everything tied to oil is worth a bounce trade. Doubt it lasts though.

      Delete
  38. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 8:12 AM

    Long GPRO for a trade. $43. Hoping lows from last week hold.

    Long YRCW as well $15.4.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 8:20 AM

      Sold YRCW at $15.5. Huge score. Huge.

      Delete
    2. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 8:27 AM

      Sold GPRO at $42.8. This isn't gonna work here, yet. Not with this much selling going on.

      Delete
  39. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 9:17 AM

    How do you go from a sell to a hold on a stock? How can you hold a stock you've sold without buying it?

    ReplyDelete
  40. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 9:21 AM

    Added a little more PGH at $1.28

    ReplyDelete
  41. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 9:25 AM

    this market is not worth being a part of if you want to sit and hold stuff...at least that's how i'm approaching things. it could very well trend down all the way to the fed meeting in 2 weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  42. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 10:02 AM

    Sold CHK at $7.72.

    ReplyDelete
  43. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 10:09 AM

    I'm looking to exit PGH / FCX on strength today. Otherwise, its turn out the lights. Most people are scared but also wary of the bear trap. Tough spot. I'd rather just be in cash at the end of the day and fade excessive moves to each side.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 12:06 PM

      I sold these at 9.8 and 1.25.

      Delete
    2. BB CanadaSeptember 1, 2015 at 12:27 PM

      My thinking is that if I were to go all out, it could be very hard to get back in. I'm still having a pretty good year and the total return S&P was down less than 3% at the end of August, so really just flat for the year. I really don't see a big bear market coming now, which I would want to sell out mostly before. Markets can rebound very quickly too and I hate chasing stocks and paying up for them, so if we did bottom and I had little exposure, could be tough to get back to a full portfolio.

      Delete
    3. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 1:18 PM

      I agree and something I'm keeping in mind.

      Delete
  44. 2nd_aveSeptember 1, 2015 at 1:39 PM

    DJIA dips briefly below 16k to 15,980. Major decline + failed bounce + a downside break can present an event risk. I would want to see large buyers behind the next rally before risking capital.

    ReplyDelete
  45. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 2:04 PM

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0830-calpers-shortfalls-20150830-story.html

    ReplyDelete
  46. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 2:06 PM

    Saut Comments:
    http://www.raymondjames.com/multimedia2.htm?url=Saut_Daily.wma&player=wmp&target=int&width=300&height=0

    He mentioned there is a Dow Theory Sell Signal but he’s ignoring it unless the lows from last week break. He doesn’t think they will but he mentioned that a move below 1940 puts the test in play...and then what stocks do from there is key

    ReplyDelete
  47. UnknownSeptember 1, 2015 at 5:58 PM

    Bought fcx at 9.77 and chk at 7.47 after hrs

    ReplyDelete
  48. MarkWSeptember 1, 2015 at 8:28 PM

    Hell of a lot of people int he 'sucessful test' camp.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 4:13 AM

      Do U mean we already successfully tested it or we will successfully test it?

      Delete
  49. BB CanadaSeptember 2, 2015 at 6:08 AM

    Investor's Intelligence Survey %bullish vs. %bearish at lowest levels since 2009 lows. Sign we are probably close to a bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  50. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 6:32 AM

    Sold fcx and chk pre market

    ReplyDelete
  51. MarkWSeptember 2, 2015 at 6:41 AM

    TOF- I say we either don't get there or spike below to shake out those dip buyers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 7:11 AM

      China markets closed tmrw and Friday so I doubt we go lower

      Delete
    2. MarkWSeptember 2, 2015 at 7:27 AM

      I'm talking about over the course of the next month or so.

      Delete
    3. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 7:54 AM

      Oh, yeah. I think odds favor a move lower.

      Delete
  52. BB CanadaSeptember 2, 2015 at 6:48 AM

    And now we've got the first "full house" buy alert from Morgan Stanley since 2009, which is typically followed by a 23% gain the nest year. Like Euro-banks as way to play.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11837853/morgan-stanley-capitulation-MSCI-Europe-equities-China-bank-stocks-1998-bonds.html

    ReplyDelete
  53. BB CanadaSeptember 2, 2015 at 6:50 AM

    AGO up nicely this morning on signs of a deal with PREPA the Puerto Rico utility. Could still almost double from here on complete resolution of Puerto Rico and better interest rate environment.

    ReplyDelete
  54. MarkWSeptember 2, 2015 at 7:37 AM

    Added ENPH is 2nd acct. @ 4.34.

    ReplyDelete
  55. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 7:55 AM

    Long YRCW at $15.2
    MET at $48.22
    FCAU at $13.65
    TA at $11.55
    TREX at $37

    Thinking we rally to close out the week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 8:03 AM

      no china = no crash

      Delete
    2. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 9:33 AM

      Sold TREX at $37.4x. Will look to take the rest off if I feel like it has made a good run.

      Delete
    3. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 10:18 AM

      Sold MET at $48.42

      Delete
    4. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 10:20 AM

      Sold FCAU at $13.71

      Delete
    5. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 10:29 AM

      Ended up buying back into MET at $48.46...will let this run more.

      Delete
    6. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 11:37 AM

      Took it off at $48.51. Was a 60% holding so this move actually makes me a little bit of money.

      Delete
    7. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 11:45 AM

      Back in MET much smaller position at $48.31

      Delete
    8. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 12:00 PM

      Sold MET again at $48.4x

      Delete
  56. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 10:06 AM

    TA is pretty damn cheap down here especially with low oil. I added some more.

    ReplyDelete
  57. BB CanadaSeptember 2, 2015 at 10:45 AM

    I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the markets going forward for the rest of the year.

    Just seems so negative out there that not many people left to sell.

    Watching CNBC at lunch today and everyone was on board with us needing a retest after such a sharp move down. But if everyone is looking for it, it probably won't come.

    I don't generally do too much trading based on feelings, but am thinking about adding some more.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 11:40 AM

      I think it will take some time to work through these issues with the emerging markets. No idea what impact it has on us but my guess is we see a rounded bottom to the markets if we end higher by year end.

      Delete
    2. BB CanadaSeptember 2, 2015 at 11:46 AM



      At the start of the year, guys were talking about the 5 th year of the decade and 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle being so positive. I think we do finish positive as well, but it could well be the year than breaks those trends.

      Delete
  58. BB CanadaSeptember 2, 2015 at 10:50 AM

    TOF,

    We ended up booking a cottage in Carlsbad a block from the beach and 5 minute walk from Carlsbad Village. Waterfront was just too expensive, especially with the now 33% premium on the Canadian Dollar now. We are going for 12 days, so think it will be a good base for going into San Diego, but also good for exploring Torrey Pines and beach walking and getting into some of the coastal mountains.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 11:38 AM

      Sounds great. I think you'll like Carlsbad a lot.

      Delete
  59. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 12:01 PM

    My guess is we rally hard again tomorrow...right back to where we were on Friday

    ReplyDelete
  60. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 12:07 PM

    Long UGAZ at $1.61.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 5:12 AM

      Sold at 1.63. Taking small gains as fast as possible until we get some calmness in the market

      Delete
  61. MarkWSeptember 2, 2015 at 12:11 PM

    You have enough room for me right BB?

    ReplyDelete
  62. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 12:31 PM

    Grabbed some CHK at $7.31

    ReplyDelete
  63. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 12:49 PM

    TA is now trading at 2x EBITDA or 3x if you compare to enterprise value. Almost absurd valuation.

    ReplyDelete
  64. 2nd_aveSeptember 2, 2015 at 12:51 PM

    I’ve been waiting for another shot at the long bond. TLT is set to print its lowest closing price since July 29 in about 15 minutes. Scaling into a position in RYGBX (Rydex Long-dated Treasuries).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 12:58 PM

      My only concern with that is TNX is moving up above its 200 DMA and the 200 DMA is above to start sloping upward. Maybe the fed will be raising rates?

      Delete
  65. UnknownSeptember 2, 2015 at 12:53 PM

    Sold YRCW at $15.48

    ReplyDelete
  66. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 5:58 AM

    Back in ugaz at 1.61

    ReplyDelete
  67. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 6:33 AM

    sold chk at 7.47

    ReplyDelete
  68. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 7:21 AM

    Sold UGAZ at $1.66. I'm a gambler, but with a 3% gain heading into the report. I'll take it.

    ReplyDelete
  69. ChickenpookieSeptember 3, 2015 at 7:29 AM

    XYL

    ReplyDelete
  70. 2nd_aveSeptember 3, 2015 at 7:30 AM

    (a) DJIA up another +150 points. In my opinion (and it’s only an opinion), this is an opportunity to reduce risk for anyone still long.
    (b) GDX (miners) +2.9%. Trimming positions here.
    (c) FCX (Freeport McMoran) off @ 10.31 for a +5% gain.
    (d) TLT (long bond) flat.

    ReplyDelete
  71. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 7:36 AM

    Grabbed UGAZ at $1.64. I think there's room for a short squeeze here

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 7:37 AM

      thinking that its bullish if its still up on a bad report. could change quickly i guess

      Delete
  72. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 7:43 AM

    I ended up buying some PGH at $1.244 and CHK at 7.56. Looking at all commodity plays makes me think we have seen at least a short term bottom. Trading in stocks like CRK make me feel stronger about this.

    ReplyDelete
  73. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 7:47 AM

    Sold TA at $11.7

    ReplyDelete
  74. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 7:48 AM

    In general I'm taking gains as quickly as possible. I think it's great that we're rallying but lets keep in mind that China is closed right now and that is essentially a black hole in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  75. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 7:59 AM

    Kind of think CRK is a “tell” for nat gas. why is that thing skyrocketing?

    ReplyDelete
  76. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 8:16 AM

    SDS at $22.32 to help hedge any remaining longs I have...just in case

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 8:34 AM

      I have a list of about 20 stocks that I just keep an eye on. Anything down big = buy. Anything up big = sell. Just keep repeating this over and over for the time being until the VIX settles down.

      Delete
    2. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 8:38 AM

      At some point this will reverse and this strategy will not work. But I think there's a good deal of risk overseas that is weighing on our market and I don't see any magical cure to it anytime soon. So the best thing I can think of doing is day trading, taking 1-2% gains here and there. I'm actually up a few % over the past 2 weeks despite keeping very little risk on overnight and keeping 50% in cash. I've been getting good sleep and have still managed to make some money despite the volatility

      Delete
  77. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 8:28 AM

    Sold UGAZ at 1.65/6

    ReplyDelete
  78. BB CanadaSeptember 3, 2015 at 8:43 AM

    We've now made back all of the losses from the big down Monday and are back to the levels of 2 Fridays ago when things started falling apart. Will be watching to see if we turn back down now or break through. Fed meeting in 2 weeks, so probably we just trade around here till then as there is no clarity on what will happen at the meeting, but I still think the Fed Meeting will be a buy the news event regardless of what happens and we are up from there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 9:22 AM

      I took everything off the table and will enjoy the rest of the day. I think there's significant overhead resistance in the market, but that doesn't mean we can't go higher. Not sure where Yellen has been through all of this...I find it interesting that she hasn't spoken at all given most Fed heads would have been talking quite a bit in the past. Would be nice to see them actually take a hands off approach to the markets but I doubt that happens. I don't see how they could possibly raise rates right now. The economy isn't strong enough to be considered going into overdrive which is typically when they start raising rates. To raise now only so they can lower later is silly.

      If the Fed calls off rate hikes I think we have room to rally to 2,040 in the short term. I'm just looking for volatility to die down before committing money on a longer term basis.

      Delete
    2. BB CanadaSeptember 3, 2015 at 10:45 AM

      The rate raise now not is to control inflation, etc., but to remove the extra monetary stimulus. US GDP was over 3% last quarter, so the economy is doing fine. I think it would be smart to do now and then they can wait 6 months or even a year to see what effect it has and then make a better decision on where to go forward. Keeping rates too low does risk that if inflation leaps, they may need to do a full percentage point or more increase later on, which would be tougher for the economy to absorb.

      Delete
    3. BB CanadaSeptember 3, 2015 at 11:25 AM

      Smart selling earlier on today. Been a weak since 11:00 AM.

      Delete
  79. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 12:58 PM

    Long GILD into the close. Continuing with my theme of buying the stuff that is down on the day, to be sold tomorrow. Keeping lots of cash still.

    ReplyDelete
  80. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 3:14 PM

    Long AAPL after hours at $110.25. Thinking its at the lower end of the new up channel from the crash lows last week. Upside is $10 higher.

    ReplyDelete
  81. 2nd_aveSeptember 3, 2015 at 5:29 PM

    What I'd like to see is a retest of the August 24 lows. Lows printed that day for emerging markets will likely stand, whereas the outlook for domestic stocks is less sanguine. Until we see the DJIA in the 15k range, I would suggest patience.

    ReplyDelete
  82. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 6:09 PM

    I ended up just going to all cash and selling aapl and gild after hours. Peace of mind

    ReplyDelete
  83. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 9:56 PM

    Whoa...Nikkei down a lot. Same with India. We could see a helluva downturn next week at this rate, after a long holiday weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  84. UnknownSeptember 3, 2015 at 11:24 PM

    "Mario Draghi has unveiled a revamp of quantitative easing to
    allow for more purchases of each euro member’s debt as the
    weaker global outlook prompted a wholesale reduction of officials’
    economic forecasts through 2017. Draghi said the emergingmarket
    rout threatened global expansion and that consumer
    prices may barely grow this year." - Oliver Renick

    ReplyDelete
  85. UnknownSeptember 4, 2015 at 5:49 AM

    I bought a little russ at 42.29. Chased a bit but if today is weak I think we go thru the floorboards on tuesday

    ReplyDelete
  86. Telestar3dSeptember 4, 2015 at 6:09 AM

    If you look at yesterday's $$, oil, ES futs, copper and silver they hall hit and stopped at the 50 dma almost on the dot. Sell rips buy dips or reverse short rips cover dips.

    Actually like to see Dow drop 5K or 30% and really get bargains again, the quicker the better.

    More ZIRP/NIRP please.

    ReplyDelete
  87. 2nd_aveSeptember 4, 2015 at 6:21 AM

    NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) slightly below consensus estimates.

    (a) DJIA futures now -250 points (-1.5%).
    (b) EEM (Emerging Markets) -2%.
    (c) TLT (long bond) +0.8%.

    ReplyDelete
  88. 2nd_aveSeptember 4, 2015 at 6:55 AM

    Reopening a flyer in FCX (Freeport McMoran) on the -5% drop to 9.61.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Telestar3dSeptember 4, 2015 at 6:57 AM

    FCX 9.77 is .50 give back of Ichan effect.

    Long at 9.65 for a trade.

    ReplyDelete
  90. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2015 at 7:04 AM

    TRUMP - I think this guy must be a genius.

    ReplyDelete
  91. BB CanadaSeptember 4, 2015 at 7:10 AM

    Drove up to Montreal for the long weekend. Think I'll just ignore he market today and go sit on a cafe and watch the French girls walk by.

    Talk to you Tuesday.

    ReplyDelete
  92. 2nd_aveSeptember 4, 2015 at 7:23 AM

    I like the fear this morning. Taking a position in RYWVX (Rydex 2x EM) @ the 1030 est window. EEM (emerging markets) is trading near the September 1 lows. EWZ (Brazil) + FXI (China 'H' Shares) are both trading below even their August 24 and August 25 closes, which could be interpreted either positively or negatively.

    ReplyDelete
  93. MarkWSeptember 4, 2015 at 7:30 AM

    I sorta feel like were just testing a little here. I suspect we close green. I already am.

    ReplyDelete
  94. MarkWSeptember 4, 2015 at 7:31 AM

    Going to the City this morning to listen to some really nice audio equipment. Can't wait!

    ReplyDelete
  95. UnknownSeptember 4, 2015 at 8:31 AM

    Sold RUSS at $42.8-42.9

    ReplyDelete
  96. UnknownSeptember 4, 2015 at 8:49 AM

    Long GILD at $102.4, AAPL at $109.25, FCX at $9.65

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 4, 2015 at 9:08 AM

      Doubled up at $102.5, $109.05, $9.6.

      Thinking we close strong and finish flattish as people square up into the holiday weekend.

      Delete
    2. UnknownSeptember 4, 2015 at 9:21 AM

      Probably gonna be wrong on this one, especially if we can't get back up above SPX 1930

      Delete
    3. UnknownSeptember 4, 2015 at 9:49 AM

      Sold GILD / AAPL / FCX. Took the hit.

      Delete
    4. UnknownSeptember 4, 2015 at 10:10 AM

      Back in GILD $101.8

      Delete
    5. UnknownSeptember 4, 2015 at 10:58 AM

      Sold at $101.95

      Delete
  97. Telestar3dSeptember 4, 2015 at 10:29 AM

    FCX hit my ask out at 9.81

    ReplyDelete
  98. Telestar3dSeptember 4, 2015 at 10:31 AM

    Thinking about doing pairs trade BIS with best bio's say GILD BIIB AMGN.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 4, 2015 at 11:43 AM

      Why not just short IBB to avoid the decay factor with BIS?

      Delete
  99. UnknownSeptember 4, 2015 at 12:24 PM

    I think most people are expecting a ramp into the close. Doubt that materializes. I think most people are actually just going to close out longs into the close. Having said that, the obvious pain trade on Tuesday is a gap UP.

    ReplyDelete

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