re your compare years, could also be like a 2011 as David suggested or a 1998 - the headlines are similar to a 1998 where the US is doing well, but the emerging markets are having problems and China a currency issue. The 1990 chart could also be a good comparable as well.
GPRO might be interesting here to you guys. It's holding right around my last add and the JCP/AAPL dude is opening a new business and he'll bring one right to your house in 4 hrs. and teach you how to use it.
Analyst estimates summary from Thompson Reuters and Factset for 2016, fwiw.
"A lot can happen between now and January ’16, but the expectation is that SP 500 earnings in 2016 will at least be mid-single-digits and with a little help from Energy, might be a little better."
Rates - One thing gold bugs and most financial experts seem to agree on is, rates are poised to lift. Hmm, the TOG involves short US treasuries long gold/silver.... Supporting that is, TBT refuses to return to upper $30's despite markets selling off, market moving lower though should force rates lower in a search for safe harbor?
I'm not sure what to believe, there are many unanswered circular questions with these strategies and theories.
Automakers - Let's say rates were to increase mightily. Wouldn't that impact sales perhaps? Someone's betting on something, smart money knows what's coming.
MEOH - Off the cliff on volume, one of the largest methanol producers globally. Methanol is increasingly being used to remove nitrogen from waste water in treatment plants so as not to discharge the nitrogen in effluent to rivers.
PSEC - Goes ex-div in a few days, monthly distribution. I might just add if it gets whacked but hate having too many eggs in one basket b/c swinging for fences hasn't worked well for me. The only thing that has worked is taking small gains and not relying on hope. The reason is, there just isn't any reliable information available to small fries apparently, most info is misleading or wrong.
FCAU - BTW, I don't think this was sold in sympathy with VW's deceit..... I guess that was the excuse to suck in the unsuspecting and distribute to them.
Is CDTI an OEM vendor or who exactly do they have for customers? I find the Borg Warner's and Bosch's of the world are the OEM vendors for the most part, they developed the technologies and there's no reason to believe some tiny cap company has anything of interest.
If CDTI was actually in posession of IP someone needed then I'd agree but there has to be more than just VW taking shortcuts to avoid maintenance nightmares. VW now has a maintenance issue they somehow hoped to avoid by cheating and might need to actually fit a real emissions system.
GM kinda did this back in early 90's to improve fuel mileage and EPA caught this and made them keep the emissions running full time but fortunately the cat converter was already adequate so it was just a s/w change.
I guess a skimpy cat converter needs more fuel to keep it hot enough to work properly and that's one problem a diesel has is more fuel makes the engine run faster due to compression ignition thus you can't just dump fuel into the combustion chamber to keep the converter heated.
Diesels now use uric acid injection to the emissions system to keep the converter working, not sure if VW avoided that by cheating? I haven't read the flurry of articles.
I really have no idea. I'm the dumbest person in the world when it comes to old world technology. I just saw some heavy volume go into CDTI the day the news broke about VLKAY.
Plenty of analysts seem bearish on refining sector, despite the big whale Buffett buying, eh? There are big hairy smoking dividends, scary. So I guess CVRR and ALDW have tons more upside considering it's the job of analysts to mislead?
Took a large position in this. I really like the risk reward here. I will sell if we close below $31.80. Otherwise I think we could see a rally back to $34-35.
FCAU - $12.70 ish is probably the bottom if you think autos have more upside in them. There's no clear reason for today's low unless there's something going on the "experts weren't aware of".......
re FCAU and all the auto makers, I think the prices down are:
1. Environmental compliance costs look to be going up for them all 2. FCAU sells some diesel trucks in North America, plus a lot of diesel cars in Europe 3. The odds of a merger for FCAU are down 4. Companies may have to replace their diesel engines with gas which will be expensive.
Personally, I think the auto replacement cycle is intact and the VW issues will help other auto makers as these sale go to other companies.
CECE - This one comes to mind as an environmental services equipment provider. BWA - Makes autoparts and control systems. JCI - Also makes automotive control systems
FCAU - Meanwhile Chrysler makes a 700hp muscle car nobody aside from a few gearheads considers a must have. How much money has FCAU spent on developing their most sucessful products such as Jeep as opposed to Alpha Romeo? Not that I don't like Alpha Romeo, or the other high end stuff and realize margins on the low end stuff are low.
The only way to improve margins on shitboxes for the masses is through automation, no? FCAU needs a vehicle extruding machine so they can literally just "squirt" out EPA compliant shitboxes. A single cylinder paint shaker engine with Borg Warner puffer box and plastic chassis printed on 3D printer might fit the bill?
Unless we're all going to hell in a hand basket instead....
Extruded and blow-molded plastic stuff makes me think of MCRN.
WYNN - Used to be $100 not long ago, remember that and maybe you recall oil in the $80's.... Maybe gold is a good idea but how can that be assuming central banks have run out of bullets and/or the recession doesn't materialize?
From what I've read, the knock on WYNN and all the Macau hotels is that Macau was mainly being used as a money laundering place for rich Chinese to get their money out of China, but the government is clamping down, which is why business is off so much, and people are saying unlikely to come back.
CDTI - I doubt these guys have jack squat, they simply suggest they can catalyze better with less..... The holy grail Detroit has searched for decades now, lol
Michael LipkaSeptember 24, 2015 at 10:08 AM Long EEM at $32.28
Michael LipkaSeptember 24, 2015 at 10:12 AM Took a large position in this. I really like the risk reward here. I will sell if we close below $31.80. Otherwise I think we could see a rally back to $34-35.
Michael LipkaSeptember 24, 2015 at 11:21 AM Sold EEM at $32.4
In Italy, even small banks have bullet-proof impenetrable areas where customers must pass through and can become trapped if they pose a threat but this smoke thing is an old idea that could actually grow legs, maybe. And to boot, infra-red vision could be used by authorities during rescue operations.
"Complete Security Systems Smoke Screen systems generate a thick, impenetrable and persistent smoke that does no damage to your property and is perfectly safe to breathe. The smoke will obscure the vision of any intruders or attackers, making it essentially impossible for them to continue with their attack. Our Smoke Screens will never leave a residue behind, which means you can get back to business straightaway. Our top-of-the-range technology is among the most effective on the market, so if you want the best for yourself and your business, better call Concept Smoke Screen."
I really think the Fed is delusional, talking about raising rates right now. Pull out your 1998 playbook to see what the Fed did in the midst of an emerging market collapse to help stem the selloff.
I bought back into SDS. Still keeping mostly cash. I think raising rates this year is absolutely ludicrous. Even the discussion is absurd. Again, why raise rates with no inflation and with the entire emerging market sector being on the verge of a crisis?
I ended up just keeping the SDS as I was about to sell it. I think we head lower. Might get a head fake bounce but we head lower with the Fed intent on raising rates.
I believe the 'short side' is the right idea. All the downside breakouts have led to massive overhang. It's going to be difficult for bulls to sustain a rally. But an overnight position in SDS is rarely warranted.
I think most investors would like to see higher rates to give confidence in the economy and jobs market. The no raise last meeting put more fear back into the market.
Yellen's speech calling for higher rates this year might end up being the catalyst for the next rally.
BB - I think the market is clearly speaking volumes about their view on interest rates.
The Fed passed on raising rates and the market tanked 100 S&P pts. After hours the Fed discussed raising rates. If we rally off of this even if its for a day or so then I suspect after we get through this down phase we will finally see the market rise on rising interest rates.
The econ reports today were actually quite strong which is a great sign and provides support for the concept of raising rates. I just worry that it's bad timing. But then again I think there's probably never going to be a great time.
I'm just excited to get back in the swing of putting more money to work. I was tempted to buy a bunch of stuff today in case we saw the lows. Things like TREX and ZG and other stuff related to housing which still seems to be a great long term area...maybe not the homebuilders themselves since they trade at fairly high multiples.
Now seems like a great time to be watching stocks and making your checklist of things to buy when we get through this funk. Investing in themes that are bigger themes going forward after we get through the whole rate hike thing and emerging market slowdown. I really like the idea of buying into sectors that benefit from improving home building, like TREX, CCS,and ZG, as well as banks and insurers benefiting from rising rates, like MET AFL NWLI BAC JPM KTHN IBKC etc. I also like GNTX, BITA, MMYT, YRCW, TA, QCOM, KNL, HOG, WMT...lots of stocks that seem really cheap right now.
FCAU/GM/etc... It's interesting to think current fear is automakers cannot meet emissions requirements, automakers are one of the big economic indicators.
Given automakers are under pressure, so too is one important econ indicator, no?
I only see selling, seems like. I may as well dump my remaining positions and burn the proceeds. FWIW, Buffett bought out one of my favorite indicators, PCP...
(a) Opening a position in BABA (Alibaba) @ 59 and change. (b) Reopening a position in RYWVX (Rydex 2x EM) at the 1030 window. (c) Will consider positions in VEIEX (Vanguard EM) and/or BEXIX (Baron EM) at the close.
One of my favorite Tina Turner songs, saw her once in Honolulu and she was electric and her energy cuts through you. She is right up there with the Stones in the live department.
If I had to guess, we have another move up on Monday into the green at some point. That's a good spot to short again. I think we grind lower next week to below the August 24th lows, then we rally.
Lots of noise right now but bigger picture we are trending lower and below the longer term moving avg (which is trending lower). So risks need to be managed aggressively
Where are we with the yield curve, has it flattened or steepened and if flatter is it a "bull flattening" No, I'm not referring to bulls being flattened, I don't believe...
Off the top of my head, the stocks to target next week should we get a false breakdown and then rally, are:
Housing / Insurers Stocks that have held up well like ZG EROS BITA
I basically just want to look for stuff that would work in a change in interest rate policy in the event we're in a 1998 scenario where the retest is the bottom and we rip hard from there to new highs.
There's a theory out there claiming corporate debt is too high to allow for rising rates. Further, the case is corporations took advantage of low rates to do buybacks and pay dividends instead of investing in growth are over-levered?
That's what makes interpreting the rate curve action so important at this point.
BTW, if your H2 or O2 sources are relatively dirty it might be wise to burn them in an internal combustion engine as opposed to running large volumes through and contaminating a fuel cell. The fuel cell could be the more efficient way of converting perhaps, so in that case the emphasis will be on contamination and the cell's ability to deal with that.
GOOG's electric car could use just about any source for electricity aside from a long cord, and the electric car isn't a new idea at all. Batteries are about as good as they've ever been I guess, are they now up to the task?
ENR - Currently PE is 130 but forward is 16, does this seem to indicate someone thinks battery sales are about to go parabolic? I see what looks like an IH&S....
DC Rail system - Asking for more financial assistance of course... I didn't realize the system is powered by direct current power supplies instead of alternating current, like I'm pretty sure Japanese rail is powered. Another interesting note is to my knowledge Japanese rail has almost never turned a profit.
So, I guess if it's a government funded project that competes with fossil fuel transportation it should be funded by using proceeds obtained via taxing competing (aka carbon most likely?) fuels.
Yellen - Oh I get it now, she ended the bull rally Bernanke kicked off ! Recall before a month or two ago, she quipped that equities markets were fully priced...
CECE - I keep watching this one while wondering when the concept of effluent treatment might regain focus, if ever. Maybe these guys have nothing innovative to offer?
Another case of an attractive FORWARD pe..... Not that these guys have anything known revolutionary to offer, or the market isn't saturated with competitive private equity interests.
Semiconductor industry is battling with their own form of carbon contamination, sounds like a familiar and related theme to me.... http://www.physics.rutgers.edu/bartgroup/EUV.htm
Who mines Chabazite, and has the market price been clobbered along with every other commodity on Earth?
Global distribution of known chabazite deposits: Global Distribution Chabazite is distributed in the following places: Germany - Fine crystals from Idar-Oberstein, Rhineland-Palatinate Czech Republic - At Repcice (Rubendorfel), near Usti nad Labem (Aussig) Ireland - At a number of localities in Co. Antrim Scotland - At Kilmalcolm, Renfrewshire Faeroe Islands - From Haeddin, on Eysturoy; Dalsnipa, on Sandoy; and Skutin, on Nolsoy Iceland - Large crystals at Breidhdalsheidhi USA - Around Paterson, Passaic Co. and Bergen Hill, Hudson Co. New Jersey; on Table Mountain, Jefferson Co. Colorado; at Goble, Columbia Co. and Springfield, Lane Co. Oregon Canada - In the Bay of Fundy district, Nova Scotia Mexico - On Table Mountain, Rosarito Beach, Baja California India - In the Khandivali quarry, near Bombay, Maharashtra Australia - At Richmond and Collingwood, Victoria, and on Fairy Mount, near Kyogle, New South Wales
Carbon sequestration - What's this guy Bill Gates, up to........?
In Squamish, British Columbia, a Canadian town halfway between Vancouver and Whistler where the ocean meets the mountains, a startup led by Harvard physicist David Keith – and funded in part by Bill Gates – is building an industrial plant to capture carbon dioxide from the air.
NC - In the Blender..... Why can't these guys squeeze tens of millions out of nearly $1B of sales, surely they aren't destined to wash up on Hamilton Beach? Yes, they have debt, unfortunately.
TerraPower, Bill Gates' development company has partnerships with the following, and more.
"Our domestic business partners include AECOM, ARES Corporation, Babcock and Wilcox Company, Brayton Energy, Burns and Roe, The Cameron Group, Columbia Basin Consulting Group, LLC, Creative Engineers, Inc., Cryogenic Consulting Service, Curtiss-Wright Corporation, Invensys, M&D Professional Services, NuVision Engineering, US Photonics and Veridiam."
Lost my internet Friday. Switched to cable 2 months ago and they ran the wire through a big maple tree to the house. Broke twice now and they just put it back through the tree for the 3rd time.
Was disappointed by the pullback Friday afternoon. I guess the best now would be a weak open Monday to try and shake out a few more people, but I do think we are getting close to the end of the people who are shaken out by lower prices and moving into the hand of people who buy lower prices.
What's this I keep hearing about the Yuan winning reserve status, are they attempting to convince us a communist country will be assigned the worlds reserve currency?
I dunno, I thought my math skills were pretty good, this seems like Chinese arithmetic.... And, I'm pretty sure a majority of Chinese could give a rat's ass about emissions
"11 million VW cars around the world are impacted by the emissions debacle including a few thousand vehicles in China. 35% of Volkswagen’s sales are from China."
NWLI - less than 1% from it's 52 week low. So if you'd bought this within the last year, you'd be lucky not to have taken a haircut. For practically zero dividend.
Talking to 3 of my friends this weekend, 2 of which are good investors and 1 is so-so - all value guys. All just doing nothing the last few months and waiting for a bottom. I guy really thinks we get an August retest. The smartest guy about 30% cash.
Made me think if a lot of guys are doing the same thing, maybe few buyers until we see some really low prices, so maybe this drags on longer. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bottom with October options expiration when a lot of people probably have puts expiring.
I'm not sure if the dollars here are enough to move markets, but the Saudi's are pulling money out of the market for spending at home, so probably the other oil countries are doing similar things and adding to selling pressure. Implies oil needs to bottom for markets to bottom, and they are generally trading together in the current market:
May a small buy of JST at $3.73. Following the COntra the Heard guy into it.
"This is an arbitrage play. There is a takeover bid by the head honcho at $4.50. Also, did a takeover bid last fall at $8.80, which fell off the rails. The risk is that this one could too. If it did, this is a stock that would fit into his portfolio under normal circumstances. Dividend yield of 0.78%."
It's super cheap, but it's also China with all the extra risks associated, which is the main reason I'm keeping it on the smaller side.
Bottom picking or short covering going on here this am.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think Mark? Near the bottom or still a long way down to go? Or maybe you don't worry about these things.
DeleteOh, no....I do worry about it, but I think we rally into year end. I think we're close if not there. Looking for new plays now into year end.
DeleteMike,
ReplyDeletere your compare years, could also be like a 2011 as David suggested or a 1998 - the headlines are similar to a 1998 where the US is doing well, but the emerging markets are having problems and China a currency issue. The 1990 chart could also be a good comparable as well.
GPRO might be interesting here to you guys. It's holding right around my last add and the JCP/AAPL dude is opening a new business and he'll bring one right to your house in 4 hrs. and teach you how to use it.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.enjoy.com/pages/home-att
DeletePromoting APPL/GPRO/ Sonos.
I close out my sds at 23.4. I flipped some nugt from 2.9 to 3.08.
ReplyDeleteIf you want a play on the next bounce I would suggest gold miners
Long hmy at .65
ReplyDeleteI see a stimulus / rate coming in China. That will be the catalyst for the rally
ReplyDeleteI would accept this as a shorting opportunity, honestly.
DeleteAnalyst estimates summary from Thompson Reuters and Factset for 2016, fwiw.
ReplyDelete"A lot can happen between now and January ’16, but the expectation is that SP 500 earnings in 2016 will at least be mid-single-digits and with a little help from Energy, might be a little better."
http://fundamentalis.com/?p=5190
Just heard on radio cell phone use in China is greater than 90% of population?
ReplyDeleteFCAU - Alright, wondering why this one's down so much? Saturated, market overcapacity? Same thing happened to energy.
ReplyDeleteRates - One thing gold bugs and most financial experts seem to agree on is, rates are poised to lift. Hmm, the TOG involves short US treasuries long gold/silver.... Supporting that is, TBT refuses to return to upper $30's despite markets selling off, market moving lower though should force rates lower in a search for safe harbor?
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure what to believe, there are many unanswered circular questions with these strategies and theories.
SAFT - Looks like bull flag perhaps, and pays a dividend.
ReplyDeleteI really like the risk/reward setup here for HMY, especially if gold rallies further on an economic stimulus / rate cut plan out of China.
ReplyDeleteI'm having trouble with the gross margin, looks headed for dilution and/or bankruptcy?
DeleteLong SPY at $190.88
ReplyDeleteCMRE - This company actually makes money, that's incredible!
ReplyDeleteChina builds military bases offshore by back-filling over coral reefs, that doesn't sound like concern over climate change to me.
ReplyDeleteAutomakers - Let's say rates were to increase mightily. Wouldn't that impact sales perhaps? Someone's betting on something, smart money knows what's coming.
ReplyDeleteMEOH - Off the cliff on volume, one of the largest methanol producers globally. Methanol is increasingly being used to remove nitrogen from waste water in treatment plants so as not to discharge the nitrogen in effluent to rivers.
ReplyDeleteGood indication of where sentiment is with this article:
ReplyDeletehttp://northmantrader.com/2015/09/20/game-over/
I think he's being a bit dramatic of course. The one country in the world with room to significantly cut rates? China
So in other words, following a monumental rally off 666 lows now sentiment has faded somewhat?
DeleteTomorrow the Pope is anticipated to include among other subjects, climate change in his address. Solar stocks anyone?
ReplyDeletePSEC - Goes ex-div in a few days, monthly distribution. I might just add if it gets whacked but hate having too many eggs in one basket b/c swinging for fences hasn't worked well for me. The only thing that has worked is taking small gains and not relying on hope. The reason is, there just isn't any reliable information available to small fries apparently, most info is misleading or wrong.
ReplyDeleteSold SPY. Hoping to reload at a double bottom today.
ReplyDeleteEVA - Alternative fuels, surely you guys believe in "carbon neutral" fuel sources, right? Pays a dividend, too! :)
ReplyDeleteFCAU - BTW, I don't think this was sold in sympathy with VW's deceit..... I guess that was the excuse to suck in the unsuspecting and distribute to them.
ReplyDeleteI'm actually looking to buy back. Hoping the market gives back some of these gains first.
DeleteSWC - Looks like now, VW will be forced to buy palladium for cat converters, no?
ReplyDeleteCDTI?
DeleteIs CDTI an OEM vendor or who exactly do they have for customers? I find the Borg Warner's and Bosch's of the world are the OEM vendors for the most part, they developed the technologies and there's no reason to believe some tiny cap company has anything of interest.
DeleteIf CDTI was actually in posession of IP someone needed then I'd agree but there has to be more than just VW taking shortcuts to avoid maintenance nightmares. VW now has a maintenance issue they somehow hoped to avoid by cheating and might need to actually fit a real emissions system.
GM kinda did this back in early 90's to improve fuel mileage and EPA caught this and made them keep the emissions running full time but fortunately the cat converter was already adequate so it was just a s/w change.
I guess a skimpy cat converter needs more fuel to keep it hot enough to work properly and that's one problem a diesel has is more fuel makes the engine run faster due to compression ignition thus you can't just dump fuel into the combustion chamber to keep the converter heated.
Diesels now use uric acid injection to the emissions system to keep the converter working, not sure if VW avoided that by cheating? I haven't read the flurry of articles.
I really have no idea. I'm the dumbest person in the world when it comes to old world technology. I just saw some heavy volume go into CDTI the day the news broke about VLKAY.
DeletePlenty of analysts seem bearish on refining sector, despite the big whale Buffett buying, eh? There are big hairy smoking dividends, scary. So I guess CVRR and ALDW have tons more upside considering it's the job of analysts to mislead?
ReplyDeleteLong EEM at $32.28
ReplyDeleteTook a large position in this. I really like the risk reward here. I will sell if we close below $31.80. Otherwise I think we could see a rally back to $34-35.
DeleteNSC - Does this one seem too expensive?
DeleteGetting a feeling the rip your face off rally is about to begin?
ReplyDeleteFCAU - $12.70 ish is probably the bottom if you think autos have more upside in them. There's no clear reason for today's low unless there's something going on the "experts weren't aware of".......
ReplyDeleteCP,
ReplyDeletere FCAU and all the auto makers, I think the prices down are:
1. Environmental compliance costs look to be going up for them all
2. FCAU sells some diesel trucks in North America, plus a lot of diesel cars in Europe
3. The odds of a merger for FCAU are down
4. Companies may have to replace their diesel engines with gas which will be expensive.
Personally, I think the auto replacement cycle is intact and the VW issues will help other auto makers as these sale go to other companies.
This makes sense, automakers are having issues meeting environmental regs. There must be some companies catering to the need?
DeleteSMED for instance, provides solutions for the healthcare industry waste disposal, one example of environmental services.
ANTM / FLY - These two charts look the same to me.
ReplyDeleteNEWM - Can you guys come up with something for this one aside from the fact a billionaire keeps buying and stuffing the shares into his son's account?
ReplyDeleteNAV - A 30% discount to last week's price at this point, at bottom of channel here. Not sure what the problem is...
ReplyDeleteCECE - This one comes to mind as an environmental services equipment provider.
ReplyDeleteBWA - Makes autoparts and control systems.
JCI - Also makes automotive control systems
Sold EEM at $32.4
ReplyDeleteFCAU - Meanwhile Chrysler makes a 700hp muscle car nobody aside from a few gearheads considers a must have. How much money has FCAU spent on developing their most sucessful products such as Jeep as opposed to Alpha Romeo? Not that I don't like Alpha Romeo, or the other high end stuff and realize margins on the low end stuff are low.
ReplyDeleteThe only way to improve margins on shitboxes for the masses is through automation, no? FCAU needs a vehicle extruding machine so they can literally just "squirt" out EPA compliant shitboxes. A single cylinder paint shaker engine with Borg Warner puffer box and plastic chassis printed on 3D printer might fit the bill?
Unless we're all going to hell in a hand basket instead....
Extruded and blow-molded plastic stuff makes me think of MCRN.
BX - There's a pretty healthy dividend too, perhaps being a slum lord has become a losing proposition?
ReplyDeleteFuckin' Germans.....
ReplyDeleteWYNN - Used to be $100 not long ago, remember that and maybe you recall oil in the $80's.... Maybe gold is a good idea but how can that be assuming central banks have run out of bullets and/or the recession doesn't materialize?
ReplyDeleteFrom what I've read, the knock on WYNN and all the Macau hotels is that Macau was mainly being used as a money laundering place for rich Chinese to get their money out of China, but the government is clamping down, which is why business is off so much, and people are saying unlikely to come back.
DeleteAdded to ENPH @ 3.80.
ReplyDeleteCDTI - I doubt these guys have jack squat, they simply suggest they can catalyze better with less..... The holy grail Detroit has searched for decades now, lol
ReplyDeletehttp://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/UPDATE%3A+Clean+Diesel+Technologies+%28CDTI%29+CEO+Comments+on+Recent+Auto+Emissions+Compliance+Reports/10916995.html
Grabbed some SDS at $23.01 just in case today was the bounce.
ReplyDeleteTGIBF.......
ReplyDeleteMichael LipkaSeptember 24, 2015 at 10:08 AM
ReplyDeleteLong EEM at $32.28
Michael LipkaSeptember 24, 2015 at 10:12 AM
Took a large position in this. I really like the risk reward here. I will sell if we close below $31.80. Otherwise I think we could see a rally back to $34-35.
Michael LipkaSeptember 24, 2015 at 11:21 AM
Sold EEM at $32.4
Man, you and I think a lot alike!
In Italy, even small banks have bullet-proof impenetrable areas where customers must pass through and can become trapped if they pose a threat but this smoke thing is an old idea that could actually grow legs, maybe. And to boot, infra-red vision could be used by authorities during rescue operations.
ReplyDelete"Complete Security Systems
Smoke Screen systems generate a thick, impenetrable and persistent smoke that does no damage to your property and is perfectly safe to breathe. The smoke will obscure the vision of any intruders or attackers, making it essentially impossible for them to continue with their attack. Our Smoke Screens will never leave a residue behind, which means you can get back to business straightaway. Our top-of-the-range technology is among the most effective on the market, so if you want the best for yourself and your business, better call Concept Smoke Screen."
NKE wow. What a move.
ReplyDeleteSold SDS at $23.06 after hours.
All of these moves are kind of silly. I do think we are set up for a rally but the timing is going to be difficult.
DeleteThe 6-month chart suggests that the recent pullback in GLD might have been a higher low in a new uptrend.
ReplyDeleteIt is also a bit surprising to see that today's bounce did not fade once $USD rebounded strongly from its lows...
Fear is built in as well, keep that in mind
DeleteI really think the Fed is delusional, talking about raising rates right now. Pull out your 1998 playbook to see what the Fed did in the midst of an emerging market collapse to help stem the selloff.
ReplyDeleteI bought back into SDS. Still keeping mostly cash. I think raising rates this year is absolutely ludicrous. Even the discussion is absurd. Again, why raise rates with no inflation and with the entire emerging market sector being on the verge of a crisis?
DeleteToday was a bull trap.
DeleteSold SDS at a loss. Apparently the futures started rallying after Yellen was rushed to the hospital following her speech.
DeleteI ended up just keeping the SDS as I was about to sell it. I think we head lower. Might get a head fake bounce but we head lower with the Fed intent on raising rates.
DeleteTricky right now.
DeleteJust caught a clip of her speech today, seems like a stick save? Then off to hospital, constant drama..... Need Dramamine.
ReplyDeleteShe abruptly said, “I think I will end here.” OMG, not literally?
DeleteClosed sds
ReplyDeleteGood idea.
DeleteI actually bought spy instead. In a weird twist of fate the market prob rallies on rate hike fears
DeleteI believe the 'short side' is the right idea. All the downside breakouts have led to massive overhang. It's going to be difficult for bulls to sustain a rally. But an overnight position in SDS is rarely warranted.
DeleteHow about no position?
DeleteI've basically been in no position for weeks
DeleteI think most investors would like to see higher rates to give confidence in the economy and jobs market. The no raise last meeting put more fear back into the market.
DeleteYellen's speech calling for higher rates this year might end up being the catalyst for the next rally.
So perhaps gold is in uptrend when it's red all night and green all day, just to present that necessary constant sinking feeling.
ReplyDeleteBB - I think the market is clearly speaking volumes about their view on interest rates.
ReplyDeleteThe Fed passed on raising rates and the market tanked 100 S&P pts. After hours the Fed discussed raising rates. If we rally off of this even if its for a day or so then I suspect after we get through this down phase we will finally see the market rise on rising interest rates.
The econ reports today were actually quite strong which is a great sign and provides support for the concept of raising rates. I just worry that it's bad timing. But then again I think there's probably never going to be a great time.
DeleteI'm just excited to get back in the swing of putting more money to work. I was tempted to buy a bunch of stuff today in case we saw the lows. Things like TREX and ZG and other stuff related to housing which still seems to be a great long term area...maybe not the homebuilders themselves since they trade at fairly high multiples.
But I don't we're there with being able to put a lot of money to work. Being conservative is the name of the game right now.
DeleteNow seems like a great time to be watching stocks and making your checklist of things to buy when we get through this funk. Investing in themes that are bigger themes going forward after we get through the whole rate hike thing and emerging market slowdown. I really like the idea of buying into sectors that benefit from improving home building, like TREX, CCS,and ZG, as well as banks and insurers benefiting from rising rates, like MET AFL NWLI BAC JPM KTHN IBKC etc. I also like GNTX, BITA, MMYT, YRCW, TA, QCOM, KNL, HOG, WMT...lots of stocks that seem really cheap right now.
ReplyDeleteWhen lots of stocks seem cheap, it is usually a good sign the market goes higher soon, in my experience.
DeleteDow Futures up 250 points this morning - let's see if it holds today.
Via Phone in bed....Raise the fucking rate.
ReplyDeleteThank You.
Sold spy pre market
ReplyDeleteOdds Fcau calls off Ferrari IPO due to market conditions should they deteriorate
ReplyDeleteI say slim chance of that. Question is, will there be bidders.
DeleteJust heard corporate polluters will be forced to buy credits from non-polluters?
ReplyDeleteWill airlines be labelled as gross polluters, thus making bio-fuel, etc. attractive propositions?
DeleteSeems like people are paying up for the TBT, is that bulliish for corporate stocks?
ReplyDeleteFCAU/GM/etc... It's interesting to think current fear is automakers cannot meet emissions requirements, automakers are one of the big economic indicators.
ReplyDeleteGiven automakers are under pressure, so too is one important econ indicator, no?
I only see selling, seems like. I may as well dump my remaining positions and burn the proceeds. FWIW, Buffett bought out one of my favorite indicators, PCP...
ReplyDelete(a) Opening a position in BABA (Alibaba) @ 59 and change.
ReplyDelete(b) Reopening a position in RYWVX (Rydex 2x EM) at the 1030 window.
(c) Will consider positions in VEIEX (Vanguard EM) and/or BEXIX (Baron EM) at the close.
ABAC - Well, so much for that one?
ReplyDeleteGrabbed a small position in TA again at $11.265
ReplyDeleteRitchie Bros. conducts its largest-ever Texas auction, selling US$70+ million of equipment and trucks
ReplyDeleteHave you guys looked at the trading in PCRX? My gosh. Buyers on 9/4 were ecstatic on 9/17. One week later? Total despair, if they're holding.
ReplyDeleteYes, I noticed that and don't understand but looks like something's very wrong. It was insider selling that made me think twice some time ago...
DeleteI'm not comprehending this:
ReplyDelete"Super Non Impressive 200 Point Rally"
Maybe people feel like it should be up 500?
DeleteLong SDS at $22.56
ReplyDeleteRussell 2000 is down. Makes me think red.
DeleteOut at $22.65
DeleteFriday comes early.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1pk6E8K9ZE
One of my favorite Tina Turner songs, saw her once in Honolulu and she was electric and her energy cuts through you. She is right up there with the Stones in the live department.
WB - "weibo.com" China's internet most popular website? A TWTR equivalent can't say I've heard of often.....
ReplyDeletesome of the stocks on my watch list filtered by lowest to highest P/Es
ReplyDeleteSymbol P/E
MET 7.94
IBM 9.29
AFL 9.74
ING 9.99
DFS 10.02
GS 10.29
COF 10.54
JPM 10.59
QCOM 11.64
SYF 12.20
HOG 13.37
ORCL 13.43
INTC 13.53
AXP 13.72
FDX 13.73
UTX 14.15
WMT 14.16
MLHR 14.84
BID 15.26
KNL 15.44
AMGN 15.60
MOG-A 15.91
MSFT 16.56
GE 19.22
TIF 19.80
BIDU 22.53
MA 26.53
V 26.81
PYPL 26.94
BITA 28.59
TOF, your Biotech call back a month ago was perfect just perfect.
DeleteWhat a sea of red.
For a mkt up DJIA 140, the action is nasty.
DeleteHonestly, I can't take any credit for it if I didn't make money on it. It's still ridiculously overvalued.
DeleteStart at 38 minutes
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bWh6QwcveU
Tell me she's not hot!
These guys used to play an excellent concert
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SOryJvTAGs
Gotta check out this voice
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNwC0sp-uA4
Good Ones man.
DeleteMarket feels like whack a mole.
VW - These guys should just offer to pay the EPA penalty, how much could it be maybe a couple hundred thousand $?
ReplyDeleteI hate the entry price but I bought UVXY at $55.3
ReplyDeleteSold it for a small gain. I think there are decent odds panic sets in and spikes it on monday.
DeleteFirst time I bought BMRN was at 12.
ReplyDeleteWere sales nearly $1B at the time? What possessed your purchase? It's at bottom of channel here.
DeleteAside from one, it seems all the other diseases require diagnosis by genetic analysis? I've never heard of those "diseases" if I got that term right.
DeleteIf I had to guess, we have another move up on Monday into the green at some point. That's a good spot to short again. I think we grind lower next week to below the August 24th lows, then we rally.
ReplyDeleteIMO, today was a failure thus not anticipating much if any green Monday. The GDP data was quickly faded and down or flat on good news is bearish, no?
DeleteLots of noise right now but bigger picture we are trending lower and below the longer term moving avg (which is trending lower). So risks need to be managed aggressively
DeleteWhere are we with the yield curve, has it flattened or steepened and if flatter is it a "bull flattening" No, I'm not referring to bulls being flattened, I don't believe...
ReplyDeleteOff the top of my head, the stocks to target next week should we get a false breakdown and then rally, are:
ReplyDeleteHousing / Insurers
Stocks that have held up well like ZG
EROS
BITA
I basically just want to look for stuff that would work in a change in interest rate policy in the event we're in a 1998 scenario where the retest is the bottom and we rip hard from there to new highs.
My gut tells me we will only bounce from there...not to expect new highs this year like in 1998
DeleteThere's a theory out there claiming corporate debt is too high to allow for rising rates. Further, the case is corporations took advantage of low rates to do buybacks and pay dividends instead of investing in growth are over-levered?
DeleteThat's what makes interpreting the rate curve action so important at this point.
10 year @2.16% is a pretty low rate if you ask me, wonder if the "rates are going up" crowd noticed this moved down from about 3.2% ?
ReplyDeleteBTW, if your H2 or O2 sources are relatively dirty it might be wise to burn them in an internal combustion engine as opposed to running large volumes through and contaminating a fuel cell. The fuel cell could be the more efficient way of converting perhaps, so in that case the emphasis will be on contamination and the cell's ability to deal with that.
ReplyDeleteGOOG's electric car could use just about any source for electricity aside from a long cord, and the electric car isn't a new idea at all. Batteries are about as good as they've ever been I guess, are they now up to the task?
ENR - Currently PE is 130 but forward is 16, does this seem to indicate someone thinks battery sales are about to go parabolic? I see what looks like an IH&S....
DC Rail system - Asking for more financial assistance of course... I didn't realize the system is powered by direct current power supplies instead of alternating current, like I'm pretty sure Japanese rail is powered. Another interesting note is to my knowledge Japanese rail has almost never turned a profit.
ReplyDeleteSo, I guess if it's a government funded project that competes with fossil fuel transportation it should be funded by using proceeds obtained via taxing competing (aka carbon most likely?) fuels.
There's a massive bull market going on in these home hospital and health care facility stocks. Check out ADPT amongst others
ReplyDeleteYellen - Oh I get it now, she ended the bull rally Bernanke kicked off ! Recall before a month or two ago, she quipped that equities markets were fully priced...
ReplyDeleteNEWM - Sweet dividend, Leon Cooperman is a 10% owner and $1B nearly in sales. What's not to like?
ReplyDeletePSEC - Let's talk leverage for a (brief) moment......
ReplyDeleteCECE - I keep watching this one while wondering when the concept of effluent treatment might regain focus, if ever. Maybe these guys have nothing innovative to offer?
ReplyDeleteAnother case of an attractive FORWARD pe..... Not that these guys have anything known revolutionary to offer, or the market isn't saturated with competitive private equity interests.
Semiconductor industry is battling with their own form of carbon contamination, sounds like a familiar and related theme to me....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.physics.rutgers.edu/bartgroup/EUV.htm
CO2 molecular sieve. Wonder if CECE makes these and if they might become part of the solution?
ReplyDeletehttp://news.discovery.com/tech/molecular-sieve-traps-carbon-dioxide-121108.htm
Who mines Chabazite, and has the market price been clobbered along with every other commodity on Earth?
Global distribution of known chabazite deposits:
Global Distribution
Chabazite is distributed in the following places:
Germany - Fine crystals from Idar-Oberstein, Rhineland-Palatinate
Czech Republic - At Repcice (Rubendorfel), near Usti nad Labem (Aussig)
Ireland - At a number of localities in Co. Antrim
Scotland - At Kilmalcolm, Renfrewshire
Faeroe Islands - From Haeddin, on Eysturoy; Dalsnipa, on Sandoy; and Skutin, on Nolsoy
Iceland - Large crystals at Breidhdalsheidhi
USA - Around Paterson, Passaic Co. and Bergen Hill, Hudson Co. New Jersey; on Table Mountain, Jefferson Co. Colorado; at Goble, Columbia Co. and Springfield, Lane Co. Oregon
Canada - In the Bay of Fundy district, Nova Scotia
Mexico - On Table Mountain, Rosarito Beach, Baja California
India - In the Khandivali quarry, near Bombay, Maharashtra
Australia - At Richmond and Collingwood, Victoria, and on Fairy Mount, near Kyogle, New South Wales
Carbon sequestration - What's this guy Bill Gates, up to........?
ReplyDeleteIn Squamish, British Columbia, a Canadian town halfway between Vancouver and Whistler where the ocean meets the mountains, a startup led by Harvard physicist David Keith – and funded in part by Bill Gates – is building an industrial plant to capture carbon dioxide from the air.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-and-melinda-gates-foundation-sues-petrobras-auditor-for-fraud-1443210502?ru=yahoo?mod=yahoo_itp
NC - In the Blender..... Why can't these guys squeeze tens of millions out of nearly $1B of sales, surely they aren't destined to wash up on Hamilton Beach? Yes, they have debt, unfortunately.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NC&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
TerraPower, Bill Gates' development company has partnerships with the following, and more.
ReplyDelete"Our domestic business partners include AECOM, ARES Corporation, Babcock and Wilcox Company, Brayton Energy, Burns and Roe, The Cameron Group, Columbia Basin Consulting Group, LLC, Creative Engineers, Inc., Cryogenic Consulting Service, Curtiss-Wright Corporation, Invensys, M&D Professional Services, NuVision Engineering, US Photonics and Veridiam."
http://terrapower.com/pages/partners
Lost my internet Friday. Switched to cable 2 months ago and they ran the wire through a big maple tree to the house. Broke twice now and they just put it back through the tree for the 3rd time.
ReplyDeleteWas disappointed by the pullback Friday afternoon. I guess the best now would be a weak open Monday to try and shake out a few more people, but I do think we are getting close to the end of the people who are shaken out by lower prices and moving into the hand of people who buy lower prices.
What's this I keep hearing about the Yuan winning reserve status, are they attempting to convince us a communist country will be assigned the worlds reserve currency?
ReplyDeleteI dunno, I thought my math skills were pretty good, this seems like Chinese arithmetic.... And, I'm pretty sure a majority of Chinese could give a rat's ass about emissions
ReplyDelete"11 million VW cars around the world are impacted by the emissions debacle including a few thousand vehicles in China. 35% of Volkswagen’s sales are from China."
AEG - Goldman upgrade.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - less than 1% from it's 52 week low. So if you'd bought this within the last year, you'd be lucky not to have taken a haircut. For practically zero dividend.
ReplyDeleteNow Audi diesels found to have used VW cheating software.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/news/2799216-audi-says-2_1m-vehicles-impacted-by-emissions-scandal
Hadn't heard that yet, this will definitely create some buying opportunities.
DeleteNBL - MS says overweight.
ReplyDeleteDUST - Fridays are a great day to buy this one.
BSBR - Off 5%, something's going on I don't know about (yet).
ReplyDeleteCalifornia emissions testing - Are the VW and Audi diesel vehicles passing Cali emissions? I feel like I'm here all by myself, FWIW.
ReplyDeleteEYES - Not doing well at all.
ReplyDeleteTalking to 3 of my friends this weekend, 2 of which are good investors and 1 is so-so - all value guys. All just doing nothing the last few months and waiting for a bottom. I guy really thinks we get an August retest. The smartest guy about 30% cash.
ReplyDeleteMade me think if a lot of guys are doing the same thing, maybe few buyers until we see some really low prices, so maybe this drags on longer. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bottom with October options expiration when a lot of people probably have puts expiring.
I'm not sure if the dollars here are enough to move markets, but the Saudi's are pulling money out of the market for spending at home, so probably the other oil countries are doing similar things and adding to selling pressure. Implies oil needs to bottom for markets to bottom, and they are generally trading together in the current market:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8f2eb94c-62ac-11e5-a28b-50226830d644.html
ARR - Is that now $2, seriously?
ReplyDeleteMay a small buy of JST at $3.73. Following the COntra the Heard guy into it.
ReplyDelete"This is an arbitrage play. There is a takeover bid by the head honcho at $4.50. Also, did a takeover bid last fall at $8.80, which fell off the rails. The risk is that this one could too. If it did, this is a stock that would fit into his portfolio under normal circumstances. Dividend yield of 0.78%."
It's super cheap, but it's also China with all the extra risks associated, which is the main reason I'm keeping it on the smaller side.
New Post
ReplyDelete