A put is an option that gives its holder the right to sell an asset at an agreed 'strike price' (within a certain period of time), thus protecting the holder from further losses. The financial media has more recently coined the phrases 'Greenspan put' and 'Bernanke put' as clever word play when referring to Fed policies intended to stave off market declines.
I'm going to stretch the word play a bit and use the term 'BABA put' to indicate an inflection point in Emerging Markets. Purely arbitrary to be sure, but when Alibaba printed an intraday low of 58 on August 24 (the morning the DJIA dropped -1000 points at the open) I mentally 'shelved' it as the price at which it might be safe to open a longer-term position in Emerging Markets. Today's intraday low was 58.21, which is close enough. I added a position in VEIEX (Vanguard Emerging Markets) at the close, along with smaller positions in RYWVX and BABA itself.
Sure, the Shanghai Composite is off -40% from 2015 highs, and BABA is laboring under accusations of accounting fraud. A perfect buying opportunity. Investors couldn't wait to buy BABA @ 120 last summer, and now they're tripping over each other to sell it @ 60? We want to be the guys on the other side of these trades. No guarantees, of course.
Actually, I should have said YESTERDAY's intraday low was 58.21.
ReplyDeleteBut I wasn't really watching the stock yesterday.
DeleteCurious to get your guys take on downside potential for market.
ReplyDeleteI think it's kinda in. Looks like the 08-10/2011 period.
DeleteThat enph has a tiny mkt cap huh?
DeleteEvery time I think something is cheap it just gets cheaper
DeleteI want to be aggressive in the near term but the thing that keeps my aggressiveness in check continues to be the fact that we are below the 200DMA and the 200DMA is sloping downward. On the flip side, I don't think we have hit the enthusiasm phase that is typical in some form or another (housing/banking in 2007, techs in 2000) in all bull markets, so that makes me think we have more upside. I might just decide to allocate 30-50% in the near term toward things I really over the medium term in case the market turns back up. Some of these biotechs are really interesting to me, stocks like FLML, BSTC, and SCMP. I might put 3-5% in each of these, as well as those speciality health services and hospital companies that all seem to be benefitting from obamacare.
ReplyDeleteIf I think of the latter, Obama is still in office for another 16 months. So theoretically, there's plenty of time left for these to run hard if the market does rebound, even if obamacare is ultimately repealed or the market gets scared about a Republican winning.
Putting some gtc bids on zg and scmp
ReplyDeleteOdds of the mother of all flash crashes is increasing as liquidity dries up. I'm putting low bids out on several things in case this happens. On August 24th I tried buying aapl at $95 but couldn't get any orders in and I tried calling ahead of time but their phone lines were busy. Might as well try this way
ReplyDeleteI'm still thinking UVXY hits $200. That is one of the most bullish chart patterns you will find in the market. I'm long a little so I'm biased but I've seen this chart pattern play out a few things with my own investments that turned into multi baggers fairly quickly...within 1-3 months
ReplyDeleteThe major concern I have with this pattern is it works with normal stocks. I've never seen it play out with ETFs or leveraged ETFs...I haven't tracked it with these to know. So that keeps me from holding it from a long period.
DeleteMay a small buy of JST at $3.73. Following the COntra the Heard guy into it.
ReplyDelete"This is an arbitrage play. There is a takeover bid by the head honcho at $4.50. Also, did a takeover bid last fall at $8.80, which fell off the rails. The risk is that this one could too. If it did, this is a stock that would fit into his portfolio under normal circumstances. Dividend yield of 0.78%."
It's super cheap, but it's also China with all the extra risks associated, which is the main reason I'm keeping it on the smaller side.
I'm not sure if the dollars here are enough to move markets, but the Saudi's are pulling money out of the market for spending at home, so probably the other oil countries are doing similar things and adding to selling pressure. Implies oil needs to bottom for markets to bottom, and they are generally trading together in the current market:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8f2eb94c-62ac-11e5-a28b-50226830d644.html
Talking to 3 of my friends this weekend, 2 of which are good investors and 1 is so-so - all value guys. All just doing nothing the last few months and waiting for a bottom. I guy really thinks we get an August retest. The smartest guy about 30% cash.
ReplyDeleteMade me think if a lot of guys are doing the same thing, maybe few buyers until we see some really low prices, so maybe this drags on longer. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bottom with October options expiration when a lot of people probably have puts expiring.
Mike,
ReplyDeleteHard to bottom tick the bottom. Either you have to buy on the way down (based on valuation or sentiment or whatever) which is what I like to do, or mentally be ready to pay up after the bottom is in. Could be a fast move off the bottom this time given how poor sentiment is, but who knows?
Who wrote this script? All the wild sci-fi movie stuff from the 70's is coming true..... Towering Inferno and Total Recall inclusive.
ReplyDelete"Made me think if a lot of guys are doing the same thing, maybe few buyers until we see some really low prices, so maybe this drags on longer. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bottom with October options expiration when a lot of people probably have puts expiring. "
ReplyDeleteThis is why I think there's a heightened risk of a flash crash move lower. I'm positioning some orders for this scenario and may start slowly opening up some positions.
I think it's a great practice to use 1998 as a parallel for how winning sectors trade through a mini meltdown. In ThinkorSwim you can pull up 20 year charts of CMGI, YHOO, JDSU, CSCO, MSFT, DELL, GTW, etc. I've been doing some parallels of these with big winners in the bio space. I think some are getting quite attractive.
ReplyDeleteThe key to all of this working, though, is the assumption that we haven't hit the enthusiasm phase for the market, which I don't think we have hit. I use anecdotal indicators like friends / family talking about stocks and checking out the number of people watching CNBC on flights as confirmation that this isn't happening. I mentioned the Flight indicator in the past and when I flew cross country in May when the market was much higher, there was 1 person on the entire flight that had CNBC on and our flight was during market hours. I think that's telling.
I really can't see we have, except in certain market sectors like biotech and social media.
DeleteReading more and more about how we should be turning into a good market for value investors as growth has outperformed for the past few years. Your list from a few days ago had a lot of potentially good stocks in it.
One thing I thought about is while we never hit the euphoria phase, institutional / hedge funds may have hit an extreme complacency phase brought on by the implied backstop from central bankers.
DeleteMaybe. But it really seems that we are in the part of the market cycle where people get negative quickly. If it seemed people stayed more resolutely bullish in the face of these pullbacks, I'd be more tempted to agree that the market needs more work on the downside to get sentiment down and more selling to stronger hands.
DeleteGot an email back from another friend on mine (was checking in with a bunch of them):
ReplyDelete"Almost everything on my watch list are at levels that I would be happy to buy at, the problem is they may go lower and I can't buy them all so will have to narrow to list."
Interesting comment, and also shows why we may get a fast bounce off the bottom when it occurs.
I think liquidity is going to be an issue if we can't stabilize as bids will be pulled and there's just not enough volume going through of late. I think the best strategy if you do think there's downside is to just say I'm willing to buy these stocks at these prices and put bids in. I've done that with FCAU, ZG, and AMGN.
DeleteWith respect to where the bottom is; My question is how much leverage is in the system that needs to be taken off and does the mkt have enough liquidity to do it in a control fashion.
ReplyDeleteMy sense is the answer is no.
On my IB screen 13 of my Bio's are on short sale restriction of about 40.
ReplyDeletesome notables XON POZN VRX PCRX ZIOP PBMD ( THIS ONE GYRATES AROUND 1.27)
FWIW
A few days ago I "chickened out" to add to my SVXY position at $49 and moved my buy limit order down to $45. Today that order was hit. Placed a sell limit order at $51 for the shares acquired today. Also, placed another buy limit order at $40.
ReplyDeleteThis Icahn video is kind of silly. If anyone thinks he has the public's best interest at heart I think they're crazy.
ReplyDelete"Maybe. But it really seems that we are in the part of the market cycle where people get negative quickly. If it seemed people stayed more resolutely bullish in the face of these pullbacks, I'd be more tempted to agree that the market needs more work on the downside to get sentiment down and more selling to stronger hands."
ReplyDeleteBB - I know of some permabears that contend we just continued higher for several years in the face of very weak revenue growth and weakening emerging markets. Not sure if that's correct as the market has been going sideways for 20 months now but just pointing out another idea.
Long small piece of FCAU at $12.37.
ReplyDeleteThe BABA Put is looking pretty ineffective today. DJIA off over -300 points, SPX -50 points to 1880.
ReplyDeleteIt's a stretch, but I view the fact that EEM (emerging markets) is off 'only' -2.27% (versus a decline of -2.51% for the SPX) as a slight 'plus.'
Apart from that, there really is nothing positive I can say. After bouncing to 60+, BABA itself is now off -3% to 57.50.
Reopened a position in NEM (Newmont Mining) on today's -3% drop.
Very, very tough time to be trading the markets. We may snap back Tuesday, or just as easily crash. Keeping it small, but I'm keeping skin in the game. Let's see how tomorrow plays out.
I look at a company like UTX, which is a good industrial company and it is at pretty much the lowest p/e it's been at in the last 20 years, other than the financial crisis.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gurufocus.com/chart/UTX#&serie=,,id:pettm,s:UTX
INTC - same thing
http://www.gurufocus.com/chart/INTC#&serie=,,id:pettm,s:INTC
I look at BAC and it is near the top of it's range since the financial crisis, but about 1/3 of where it generally was before that.
http://www.gurufocus.com/chart/BAC#&serie=,,id:pb,s:BAC&log=0&per=0
I find it really hard to see the market going down much further on valuations, so either we need a crash, which is possible, or a strong recession to push it down further, which is very unlikely, or rising rates, which is also very unlikely. Other than that, longer term investors will buy stocks at these levels.
Now the biotechs and some of the newer tech stocks are way overvalued, but I don't see them as big enough to bring down the broader market into a full bear.
Checking in to see what kinda crap my stink bids bought today.... Had a shit-ton of stink bids prepared so I already know what I didn't buy more of, kissing that money long gone and goodby.
ReplyDeleteHmm, looks like JAZZ was one of them, nothing else triggered.
There's probably more water on Mars than hydrogen, just like the rest of the universe. Hydrogen can be made in a fast nuclear reactor and those reactors can be tuned in real time to produce or destroy fuel. Thus, theoretically we don't need more uranium or to add fuel if we run in and out of breader mode as necessary.
ReplyDeleteI have got to say the odds of tomorrow being a significant bottom are very high. The reason: the Icahn video to be released tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteIchan video, hmmm, guess I'll Google it.
DeleteBought a little GILD after hours.
ReplyDeleteSPY closed @ 188.01, in the general vicinity of the August 24/25 lows. Investors have been waiting for 'the retest.' What's next?
ReplyDeleteSPX (2009-now) Big-Picture Volume-Profile Auction view w/ Low-Volume Areas/Nodes (price rejection) & High-Volume Areas/Nodes (price acceptance). Current HVA being tagged 1850-1900 dates back to Feb/Mar 2014. Key LVA lower (1700-1750) goes back to early Oct 2013 fast move up (thin volume zone) ...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/TS2UR6FmMo
YRCW - Just closed the Aug gap up, looks like. This price is much better than last week.
ReplyDeleteINVN - What's not to like about this one here?
ReplyDeleteSIVB - No frickin way this things drops much further.
ReplyDeleteFIG - With a 6% dividend, how can this be considered not a pretty good deal?
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/news/2790076-wsj-fortress-liquidating-chunk-of-hedge-fund-operation
DeleteLot's of interesting charts
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-28/market-pictures-aging-bull
Good Link / View. What I see is a Lot of WEAK Structure Below created by QE3. There is a significant High-Volume-Area (HVA) from SPX(1010-1450) and then the Jan 2013 Gap-n-Go. Lots of Weak structure that needs to be revisited from ~1450 Up. Will be some WILD Rotations. Saddle Up Bubba.....
Deletehere's a bettere version to look at the charts.
Deletehttp://streettalklive.com/index.php/blog.html?id=2921
SPX -- an interesting Short-Term count ... may be a wild iii slide ...
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/public/1001240/chartbook/233040110
Logic says we bounce soon, perhaps swoosh on open tomorrow and than up for short term swing by close for a few days.
DeleteI made three attempts the last four days and had my head handed to me on small positions, therefore just can not get excited about being brave here.
I do like NEM here and may take a shot there and perhaps BIIB, but prefer cash most of all.
I think 1700 is a logical spot to consider. 20% down from the top. Thats about where I think we're heading in the near term. I agree with Kyle that there's not a ton of volume (ie weak structure from here down to 1565). See the volume profile below...big pockets between $170 to $180 and $155 to $165:
Deletehttp://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_43276416.jpg?1443495846
SGG - Done going up?
ReplyDeletePSEC - I call that a failed bull flag, not all that surprising.
FCAU - Golden cross bounce coming soon, then what? What does the emissions systems cap-ex look like?
GGN - Refuses to drop under $5, wonder why that is...
ReplyDeleteI'll buy it tomorrow, it will cut thru 5 like a bottle of Nadurra.
Deletehere's Icahn's video
ReplyDeletehttp://carlicahn.com/
Watched some and read through some - not sure about this. Seems he is trying to get things done which would help his stock holdings. Maybe I'm just too cynical about stuff like this though.
DeleteI watched it too. Kind of a joke
DeletePlus a guy on Twitter had quote from Icahn from Nov, 2013 saying "very cautious", see "big drop" and again in Nov, 2014 seeing "major correction"
DeleteNVDA - $28 in the cards for this one maybe?
ReplyDeleteFT71 talking Volume Profile view in his short morning traderbite videos. Coming up in 8min ...
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/FuturesTrader71
http://stage5trading.com/traderbite
I sold my positions pre market for a small gain. I just don't have confidence to hold gains
ReplyDeleteMight be smart to take maybe a 25% position in SPY in the next few days for a 4th Q play. Thinking about it.
DeleteI've been debating that. I think there's a small chance we get a spiral downward and hit 1700, but I guess you can put that position on here and hope for no break of the August lows.
DeleteSeems to me with all of the issues going on globally that odds favor a deeper correction. I think that would be healthy for the market going forward. I think we get a relief rally into quarter end and maybe a day or two after that then a continued selloff.
AGCO - I noticed the large insider buy.
ReplyDeleteMild strength in EM + Commodities early this morning. Sizing up a few of my positions and opening new ones in FCX (Freeport McMoran) and CHK (Chesapeake).
ReplyDeleteStorage battery news for grid storage?
ReplyDeleteTSM - Read TSM might fabricate the AAPL ARM processors?
EYES - Damn, I'm down 46% on that position.... Distressing
ReplyDeleteDoes the story still exist or has something changed?
DeleteI'm not really sure if the story has changed. Lots of competing technologies to evaluate and one may have experienced breakthrough?
DeleteTough stock in this environment. Are you planning on holding for a long time? Like almost everything this year, was a good trade at one time but is now in the throws of a major meltdown.
DeleteRUSL - Obama and Putin are new buddies?
ReplyDeleteCan't believe I'm saying this but what Putin said yesterday about Syria actually made a ton of sense.
DeleteTA - I dunno but it seems de-risked in comparison with April.
ReplyDeletePlanned parenthood is self-funded? I doubt that.
ReplyDeleteJAZZ - Stopped out.
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see if the lows from today in biotechs hold if the market goes lower. something to watch. $GILD at $93.19 and AMGN at $130.09
ReplyDeleteJAZZ - This chart looks so familiar, so many like this where ema's rolled over..... BXE was among the first, a true price leader!
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAZZ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p24888852641
So much carnage in so many sectors...hard for me to believe that ultimately the market doesn't follow down the chute as well.
DeleteGGN - $5.01 there, gonna drop under feels like...
ReplyDeleteFED has taken their foot off the go-peddle and the smart money knows it.
ReplyDeleteIf you just take a step back and think about the cycle we went through from about 2011 to 2015, there were plenty of signs of froth. It just didn't show up in typical fashion. Think about how many IPOs there were, especially ones at absurdly high valuations (in restaurants, social media, biotech, chinese internets, etc), the volume of which was only seen at the 2000 peak. We had just massive amounts of global money printing, dwarfing any kind of intervention ever seen before. Jobs, housing, and auto sales all have been coming back but the underlying confidence of the economy in my opinion seems easy to shake. And housing / auto sales are built on very low interest rates which make the servicing of those assets manageable. I'm not saying rates will rise but it's definitely and abnormal environment.
ReplyDeleteI just think from a bigger picture and keeping in mind that we rose 100% since the last correction just 3 1/2 years ago and over 200% since the bottom just 6 years ago, there is room for a 20-30% drawdown over time. Obviously, how the market trades is more important that our opinions of it, but it's important to keep everything in context. These types of moves higher over the past several years are not normal at all so we shouldn't be surprised to see a sizeable pullback.
Agree completely. Carter Worth showed an inflation-adjusted $SPX chart last night showing it's right back at the 2000 level.
Delete... about 38sec in ...
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000426695
I do have a tough time listening to this guy just because I think his opinions get in the way of his job. He's supposed to be a technical trader right? He's been calling for a big down move for 2 years I think.
DeleteTo me, the break below the 200 DMA and with a downward sloping 200DMA means be as cautious as you can be. Doesn't work perfectly but it keeps you out of harm during big downturns.
Any gun to head calls?
ReplyDeleteMine is we test 1900 again tomorrow, then flush below the 1867, suck in bears and scare out bulls. Then we bounce back up to 1895-1900, then flush down to new lows.
Look at these stats, which all have similar market technical setups with a shelf up top then a rollover and downward sloping moving averages:
ReplyDelete1962-66 Bull: +80%; 1340 days
1966 Bear: 50% retracement
1970-1973 Bull: +76%; 976 days
1973-4 Bear: 110% retracement
1978 to 1980 Bull: +64%; 976 days
1980-82 Bear: 71% retracement
1987 to 1990 Bull: +64%; 1004 days
1990 Bear: 51% retracement
Average retracement excluding the 1973-4 bear was 57% of gains. Look at current bull since 2011 in this context...much more powerful rally (in %'s) and smaller retracement (so far).
2011 to 2015 Bull: +94%; 1308 days
2015+ Bear: 25.5% retracement
A retracement of 57% of the gains yields a pullback to 1540, back to old highs.
DeleteYep. That would be a return to the 'scene-of-the-crime' as they say. Brandt also mentioned that June 2013 breakout zone a few weeks back in one of his posts ...
Deletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/a-preview-of-the-august-23-factor-update-sps/
On a worst case scenario, a decline could retest the Jun 2013 breakout of a multi-year rectangle at 1600.
Kyle, this isn't a slam or anything but you always seem to show up at bottoms.
DeleteGuess I don't really feel there's much I can add when we are just in these narrow range balancing rotations (like most of this year). Also, I don't really trade individual stocks all that much. Sticking mainly to index based instruments (SSO, TNA, etc.). I have more to say when volatility increases. That's true.
DeleteI just think from a bigger picture and keeping in mind that we rose 100% since the last correction just 3 1/2 years ago and over 200% since the bottom just 6 years ago, there is room for a 20-30% drawdown over time.
ReplyDelete> Not saying I disagree with this, but the other side of the argument is we are only up 23% in the last 8 years or that last 15 years, both work, so we should be set up for a big move higher. Doesn't really make sense comparing to 2000 as we were so overvalued, but comparing to 2009 is comparing to a very undervalued market.
True. The starting point isn't the relevant point probably. I could start at 1994 and make the run since then look high. I think it's irrelevant to look that long because the majority of investors haven't been in the market that long and given how frequently people trade now its not important. Thats why I think shorter term moves are more important and in the context of a 100% move over 3.5 years, that's about as strong of a rally as the market has ever seen.
DeleteWould surprise me to see more of a mixed market going forward where some sectors do well and some don't, like we saw in the 2000 - 2002 period where tech and S&P 500 stocks underperformed and small cap and value stocks outperformed.
ReplyDeleteGoing forward, I could see healthcare, new technology, consumer staples underperforming and financials and energy outperforming, or something along these lines.
Yeah it totally depends on the way we correct, if we continue to do so. If we get a gradual correction, then correlations won't be as high and you should definitely see outperformance across multiple sectors. If we have a 20-25% top to bottom pullback over 3-6 months then we probably will see most stocks fall. I'm considering my basket of cheap stocks:
DeleteWMT
JPM
IBM
MSFT
KNL
UTX
HOG
MOG/A
QCOM
I'll just wait for KMI to finish falling off a cliff, tyvm.
DeleteI agree with the speed of the fall comment. Right now, a lot of stocks are getting sucked down by market momentum. Unless it is something fast and furious, value hunters will start picking some of these up and help find a floor.
DeleteGGN - I figure wnomever is keeping this over $5 will run outta money soon.
ReplyDeletePutin has the steely look of a KBG agent with no sense of conscience and smart enough to outthink most any US politician. Yellen looks troubled like she hasn’t been sleeping well, despite she obviously has no chance of becoming bomeless or freezing to death in an ally somewhere.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteNot that outthinking Obama seems very hard to do, but you're right, Putin is smart and focused.
DeleteI'm bullish here, especially on Emerging Markets:
ReplyDelete(a) The overnight selloffs in Asia were brutal. Australia off almost -4%, closing within 20 points of the August 25 low. Japan's Nikkei off -4.05% to 16,931 (well below its August 25 low). Hong Kong's Hang Seng plunged -700 points at the open, and ultimately undercut its September 8 low by almost -200 points. A notable 'plus' is the late rally in India's Sensex, which closed in the green.
(b) Overnight trading in the 'ES' (S&P500 futures) briefly undercut its August 24 low of 1867.
(c) Sentiment is quite negative, with US indexes currently in the red as we head into the final half hour.
As the selling continues (seemingly at the drop of a hat), traders are turning more bearish. In my opinion, the risk/reward profile is now quite positive.
We also got a bounce at 3:30 today into the close, which generally indicates buying pressure.
DeleteDid you buy anything?
DeleteSPX -- Looks like shorts waited until ~14:30 near VWAP (~1887) to take it down and break the IBLow (1876.34) to see if a cascade of selling would result (or it was a trap for shorts). Either way they returned it to VWAP (~1884).
Deletehttps://twitter.com/FuturesTrader71
Note that despite the lower low, #ES_F VPOC is higher & inside of prior value. Overall this gives us balance today #FT71
ESZ / SPX -- ESZ low today looks to be 1860.75 vs SPX low ~1872 so current delta = -11.25 (vs cash/spot). Aug 24th SPX low was 1867 vs ESZ low (via StockCharts ^ESZ15) of 1823 (recall there was a contract roll in here from Sept -> Dec), so there is a level conversion required
DeleteNope. Bought that JST yesterday and LWP.TO earlier in the month, but that's it.
DeleteLooks like CHK doing 15% layoffs. These numbers are starting to add up:
ReplyDeleteHP -30,000, Deutsche Bank – 23,000, Johnson Controls -3,000, Qualcomm -1,300; Whole Foods -1,500; CHK -800
Definitely odd that Icahn puts out this silly video and buys LNG, CHK, FCX recently.
Brent - Any idea if DB has exposure to GLNCY?
ReplyDeleteI don't know, but they did sell their commodity trading business last year, so hopefully they are managing their exposure well.
DeleteAnyone in SPWR / FSLR? That Gordon Johnson guy was out yesterday with negative comments on solar stocks. Keep in mind this guy has been bearish for years...not sure when he first was bearish so maybe it was from higher, but I know he said FSLR would go to $0 right at the bottom. His comments below
ReplyDelete"Gordon Johnson of Axiom Capital pointed out the Japanese government may restrict access to FIT program.
Shares of the Guggenheim Solar ETF fell more than 5 percent on Monday, while several solar stocks like First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) and Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) also recorded significant losses.
In an email to clients on Monday, Axiom Capital's solar analyst Gordon Johnson explained why solar stocks were getting "smoked."
Johnson cited a report by Japan Times in which a panel commissioned by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has decided to restrict the access to the country's FIT program for PV installations to "stable solar power supplies."
The FIT Program Situation
Johnson continued that there are currently more than 700,000 PV projects that were previously granted a FIT contract and that are currently not connected to the grid yet. The government panel is now suggesting that PV projects should only be granted a FIT contract after their completion.
Related Link: Stifel Calls Canadian Solar "One Of The Leading Producers"
The analyst further noted that the METI had cancelled approvals for a total of 647 previously approved PV projects back in September 2014 , after the project owners failed to begin construction on the PV plants.
Commenting on the news report, Johnson argued that a move by Japan to restrict access to the FIT program represents a "big risk," as Japan accounts for an estimated 16 percent of the total aggregated global solar installs in 2015.
Not An Isolated Selloff
Johnson further highlighted four other key periods in the solar market in which the Guggenheim ETF noticeably sold off.
The index corrected from $261 per share (8/28/08) to $46.80 per share (3/9/09).
The index corrected from $91.60 (10/14/10) to $68.50 per share (11/30/10).
The index corrected from $50.24 per share (3/6/14) to $36.93 per share (5/20/14).
The index corrected from $45.16 per share (9/10/14) to $33.37 per share (10/13/14).
The analyst pointed out that all of the corrections in the index were "foreshadowed" by FIT and incentive cuts by various countries worldwide. Accordingly, margins turned negative for "the lion's share" of solar companies across the value chain.
Bottom line, Johnson argued that the news coming out of Japan is "meaningful" and may represent "good shorting opportunities.""
CP --- Hope I answered your question above. Where is TOF???? Is he here anymore????
ReplyDeleteHey Kyle - I'm tof. I couldn't sign in with Wordpress on my phone anymore
DeletePhoning it in Hey -- Love it -- You've got more stock-picking ability than I'll ever have (REDF in 2011) but if you look at it now ... I'll stick to indices and rotations ... more what I can handle
DeleteNow that we're in a tougher / down trending market, sticking to indices will prob work better. I don't plan on putting much at risk until the market gets back above the 200dma and it slopes upward. Or at least until a solid base is built. Right now with a Vic above 20 and a downward sloping 200dma it's too risky for me
Delete*Vix above 20*
DeleteYep. That's exactly how I trade SSO (vs VIX) and TNA (vs RVX) using a Heikin-Ashi candle layout (something I learned from TradingFibz) ( https://twitter.com/TradingFibz ) ... just a blend of this-and-that ... chippin' away
Deletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/pbW36GDc
Yeah, I was just remembering last October I think it was. Or maybe February. I should've noticed the BB's tightening in June while so many ema's were rolling over was the signal to go short.
DeleteCP -- I first learned of this type of multiple sma layout from a post that humblestudent made on the BC-blog in (2010-06) but just saved it. ( http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/ ). Later, i became aware of an ema version of this system and started to pay more attention.
Deletehttp://www.fxtsp.com/
http://www.fxtsp.com/?s=guppy -- take a look at this Guppy / Rainbow System
SPH - Wow, that's right where my stink bid was. Pretty sure I cancelled that order yesterday while playing the JAZZ sour note.
ReplyDeleteToday I see "Stay away from machinery" As opposed to the prediction last year "US experiencing a manufacturing renaissance".
ReplyDeleteFutures and Europe up big this morning.
ReplyDeleteCould be a 1 day rebound as it is month-end and we've had a lot of selling recently, or could be the retest everyone is looking for is finishing up and setting up for a q4 rally.
Have to see how it plays out.
the kyle put being invoked today CP (from remote lookout station).
ReplyDeleteThe comment that apparently didn't get posted yesterday afternoon:
ReplyDeleteThe DJIA rallied +100 points in the final minutes, reversing a -55-point decline (shaking out Nervous Nellies) to finish +45 points in the green. Decent odds the rally continues overnight in the ES, and we next see Aunt Nellie chasing the train a few hundred points higher.
If Aunt Nellie wants to chase the DJIA this morning, she'll be boarding about +200 points higher. More likely, the FOMO (fear of missing out) upside break will occur +1000 points higher.
DeleteEEM +2.6%. EWZ (Brazil) +4.4%. FXI (China 'H' Shares) +2.4%.
DeleteI came into the day all cash so obviously regret not taking up my positions in GILD and FCAU. Managed to rip a few UVXY trades off and just bought a little SDS at $22.528. I think we fade this gap up, but keeping everything small as odds are we could rally more.
ReplyDeleteAveraged down sds and just sold for a small profit. Up a whopping 0.1% today, about same as past 3 days
DeleteI ended up buying back in at $22.46. Thinking market will drop into Yellen speech
DeleteTook this off at $23.67. About a 1% gain.
Deletehttp://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/29/ferrari-ipo-to-launch-as-early-as-friday-sources.html
ReplyDeleteNot quite sure how this will work, but the Ferrari IPO could launch Friday, but be priced in a couple weeks. If they do get the $10 billion valuation some are talking, should provide support for FCAU.
I was under the impression it was mid October
DeleteAnd how do you launch an IPO without the pricing in place?
DeleteNot that I'm super concerned about the details of this, as long as it comes out and helps uncover value.
I thought I read yesterday that they will do the roadshow this week and then do the IPO mid October.
DeleteDamn sold SDS too soon oh well.
ReplyDeleteBought some UGAZ at $6.27.
Added to UGAZ at $6.22. Nat Gas is down 10% from the open on Monday.
DeleteSold at $6.31. Playing small ball
DeleteFCAU- I heard Friday on the radio today.
ReplyDeleteI spent some time today building up some positions to hold for longer than just intraday. Bought some
ReplyDeleteGILD
TA
TWTR
ZG
SCMP
EDC
BIDU
KNL
MOG/A
UTX
Still sitting with about 50% cash.
Moved to 80% long. Added a few other positions. Not sure how long the rally lasts but I'm thinking could be longer than a day. I consider all of my positions to be cheap relative to recent history.
DeleteAdded AXP, EDC, BAC, JPM, GNTX, MET, NUGT to list above.
DeleteIn my opinion, the year-end rally is already underway, especially in the case of emerging markets. I'll probably pay for making that comment, but that's my take.
ReplyDeleteDJIA +220 points heading into the close. Today's rally is quite tame. Should a 'short squeeze' begin to unfold, we may see +500-point spikes (which will of course occur overnight, ensuring maximum pain for sidelined investors).
DeleteUGAZ 6.27? Another reverse split?
ReplyDeleteOf all of the positions that I opened today, the largest gains thus far are the riskiest: TWTR, ZG, EDC
ReplyDeleteI ended up having my best day in a long time today. Up about 1.7% on the day despite starting the day 100% cash. I'm hoping this is the beginning of a significant rally over the short term, at least back up to 2,000. Obviously a move below the recent lows would be a major cause for concern and would get me back to cash.
ReplyDeleteI bought some WYNN today. Hoping for a relief rally in it. I saw the chinese internet stocks rallying today and WYNN is very heavily tied to China so thinking that has the chance to rally some. Vegas had really good #’s out today for last month. That should help some. That BYD has been holding in really strong lately...that was one I traded back in early/mid 2013. They and PENN were smart not to get into Macau in hindsight. They were punished at the time for not being in Macau but now they look smart.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing that got me bullish on the market today is China will be closed for the next week. I think odds are average that their market is done going down but should help reduce market anxiety.
ReplyDeleteHere we go again.. Carl Icahn: Markets overpriced; earnings misstated
ReplyDeleteI knew that was the signal to go long yesterday yet I was too chicken.
DeleteI think guys like Icahn and Tepper have their fingers on the pulse of the market. Consider the times they have come public to discuss their views on the market or stocks they own. They typically occur right around very important junctures in the market. This isn't a coincidence. Remember when Icahn came out in August 2013 telling the world he bought AAPL? This was just as the stock was coming out of a significant downturn. If you apply the sentiment chart to AAPL, when he was publicly disclosing his position, was that not during the discouragement / wall of worry phase:
Deletehttp://graphics.moneyshow.com/traders/TipsCharts/040710/fig1.gif
I think the guy has a very good understanding of how psychology works.
There are very few people on TV or the internet for that matter who you can fully trust what they say. Way too many conflicts of interest.
DeleteWell, Q3 was a crappy quarter and I ended up down almost 9%. Didn't notice it at the time, but August was my worst percent return ever other than Sep - Nov, 2008 in the teeth of the financial crisis. Still up 4% for the year, so OK, but a bullish 4th quarter should would help things as I am pretty fully invested.
ReplyDeleteIt is good for me am I measuring in CDN $. If I were in US, I'd be down around 8% or 9%. Some years the dollar helps and some years it hurts. Overall, measuring in CDN $ has hurt over the year, but this it is a big help due to the depreciation of the CDN $.
My top 10 holdings, which represent about 2/3 of my portfolio, in order, are:
NWLI
CKI.TO
HLC.TO
KCLI
AGO
ORI
ING
FCAU
CAM.TO
GIB-A.TO (same as GIB)
Well done. Those are solid results relative to the market. I was too quick to sell Fcau yesterday and actually tried buying back in after hours yesterday at basically the same price I sold when I saw the Ferrari news. Oh well.
DeleteI've looked long and hard at ing and almost bought a few times this week but passed. I figure I can get the same discount on us stocks without the overseas risk
True on the valuation, but it may be a good time to use highly valued US dollars to buy foreign assets like ING and other non-us market assets. Currencies tend to move in long cycles, so probably no rush, but i always like the diversification.
DeleteSo now we are fighting over who gets to bomb what in Syria?
ReplyDeleteI'm such a freaking loser...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.audeze.com/products/lcd-collection/lcd-4
Wow - the money you can still spend on audio!
DeleteI have the LCD 3's. They are amazing and sound better than any traditional speaker I've heard.
DeleteNot near as good as the LCD 4 though! :)
Delete"But DC water green bonds." Message paid for by Bank Of America
ReplyDeleteSo this means contractors working on this infrastructure project will get paid. Save the Chesapeake bay from sewage discharge.
Players- S2 for TWTR today is 25.27.
ReplyDelete