DJIA + SPX futures were up as much as +1% in overnight trading. We're seeing a more muted open
in the cash market, but all indexes have gapped up. For sidelined investors, boarding will be difficult. The steepest parts of the climb are on the night train north.
in the cash market, but all indexes have gapped up. For sidelined investors, boarding will be difficult. The steepest parts of the climb are on the night train north.
AAPL approaching S2. If it doesn't hold the whole market goes in the toilet.
ReplyDeleteI ended up selling BIDU, EDC, NUGT, GILD, WYNN pre market and ZG at the open. My big losers are AAPL and SCMP, followed by KNL and IBM. Just another example of why not to buy on an up day as I'm now down about .6% on the day, giving back almost half of my gains from yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThat's a hell of a lot of positions to trade.
DeleteYeah too many. Perhaps the smart move is to just buy SPY if I'm feeling boolish.
DeleteI went long SDS to hedge a lot of it since odds are beginning to favor a fakeout below lows given how AAPL is trading.
A lot of people seem to be looking for a strong q4 after a week q3. Think re test is done and away we go. To me, that bodes for some weakness to start October before we do bounce.
DeleteNot what I'd like to see, but just seems logical.
DeleteTV defeat devices now?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/01/samsung-tvs-appear-more-energy-efficient-in-tests-than-in-real-life
Night moves, autumn closing in, always a favorite time of the year with the leaves changing colors.
ReplyDeleteOff to celebrate a few days for Phyllis"s B-day.
Good luck fellas.
wtf, 4k for headphones?
DeleteI heard that! :)
DeleteTook my sds hedge off for now
ReplyDeleteI ended up going long SDS after the open to hedge my positions, then just ended up taking off all of my positions around 30 minutes into trading. At one point I was down about 0.8% but I'm now up about 0.2% and back to cash. I do think there's a bullish "trade" coming up, but will probably need to be very careful about the entry point. I think Mark's idea of just going long SPY makes a lot of sense.
ReplyDelete4 stocks on my watch list are trading at or under 10 times earnings: IBM, MET, GILD, JPM. I like those the best given how cheap they are. They all pay nice dividends. I think that’s the safe way to play this market for the time being if I want to get back on the long train. If the market drops another 10%, though, I would expect those to take a hit.
Right now, I'm watching stocks on my watchlist very closely to see if there are stocks that are holding up better than others....looking for divergences.
DOWn by 190 at the moment.....
ReplyDeleteDNKN - Happened by one y-day and noticed an obese guy with spare tire around his waist standing outside front door jaw-jacking on his smart phone.. Made note to self: "That guy needs to stay away from this place for health reasons."
Juaquine storm moving up coast so need to make preparations/assessment for the event.
I get coffee at MCD from time to time and I have to say that place never ceases to amaze me with how many people are overweight. It's pretty sad.
DeleteTaxing hydrogenated processed food out of the market would be a start.
DeleteI still think this UVXY has the potential to be a home run based strictly on the chart setup. Unfortunately, the whole leveraged aspect of it makes it tricky. If you guys have think or swim or can access old chart patterns, pull up the chart of AMBS from late 2012 and look at it closely. This setup is exactly what I've seen in my biggest winners over the past 6 years. I've only seen this setup a few times and managed to catch a couple of them. The setup in UVXY is almost identical to this which is why I'm saying it has the potential to go to $200. Again the leveraged aspect of it makes me skeptical, but something to consider.
ReplyDeleteAssuming that happens, I assume it implies a lower $SPX, etc.... It works until it doesn't, I don't comprehend the leverage concern.
DeleteYes, it definitely would imply lower. A lot of prior corrections bottomed around 10/8 to 10/12. Typically, October is weak in the first 1/3 or 1/2 then it rallies so that could coincide with a big blowoff move up in UVXY...
DeleteEither way, I think it would probably make sense to begin buying some stuff here (assuming you think we don't go too much lower) as the majority of people expect a retest of lows and yet I don't know of anyone that was actually able to get orders through at those lows. Lots of stocks that crashed on 8/24 traded only a handful of shares down there. I wasn't able to log onto TD Ameritrade or get a call through on that day and I know lots of other people were in the same boat.
DeleteBidding UGAZ at 5.71. That would equate to $2.44 on UGAZ which is a double bottom.
ReplyDeleteI jumped the gun. Bought at $5.73.
DeleteLong SSO at $55.04
ReplyDeleteI'm taking it as a good sign (for now) that GS and JPM are green.
DeleteBought MET and WMT at $47.07 and 64.14. Also bought AFL at $57.82.
DeleteI think coming out of this correction, if it's over, financials finally outperform. I do think the Fed is serious about raising rates.
IEP - Can we conclude market likes what Icahan's been saying?
ReplyDeleteGGN - Next leg down about to begin?
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Downgraded by criminal enterprise.
ReplyDeleteThe 'gap up' open was followed by a beautifully timed -176-point shakedown in the DJIA, leaving shares in stronger hands. Heading into the close, both the SPX and Nasdaq are green and EEM (emerging markets) +0.5%. I suspect tomorrow will be a bad day for shorts.
ReplyDeleteHope you're right
DeletePACB - I've been trying to keep an eye on this one......
ReplyDeleteHere comes the JPM rally....
ReplyDelete"JPMorgan to pay $595M in credit-default swap suit, Bloomberg says"
EXAS - Saw a piece on funancial TV about how UPS is expanding medical products logistics and they devoted some time to for EXAS CEO to describe how UPS is helping EXAS to improve their service.
ReplyDeleteCAMP - Good thing we avoided that one, growth is dead.
ReplyDeleteThis market is too funny
ReplyDeleteHow does the metric of insider buying look lately?
Deleteno idea. don't follow it.
DeleteFutures were good when I first looked around 7:00, but now down a lot on the jobs report.
ReplyDeleteWill be an interesting day for sure.
Markets are selling off this morning on a 'bad' jobs report. What else is new?
ReplyDelete(a) US indexes off -1.5% (DJIA -250 points).
(b) Note that Emerging Markets are displaying resilience, with EEM off just -0.7% in comparison. If inter-market relationships are to revert to the mean, then emerging markets will need to display relative outperformance.
I wouldn't worry too much about the selloff. It wouldn't surprise me to see all three US indexes in the green by the close.
BAC - Just fell under $15 briefly, not sure if there are special circumstances particularly but it's not encouraging IMO.
DeleteMe either. Might even turn into a bad news is good news situation.
DeleteBAC might have got hit by people thinking of lower interest rates for longer due to bad jobs, so longer till net interest margins and profits go up.
QCOM is my largest position and is luckily green. I bought it because it has $25 Billion in net cash vs $83 Billion market cap, with $7Billion in free cash flow and a 3.6% dividend, as well as an activist calling for a breakup of the company and return of cash to shareholders. I actually almost made it a 50% position yesterday because it seemed too cheap to me. But in this market too cheap can only get cheaper as the assumption is that earnings will plummet with a recession.
ReplyDeleteHey have you guys heard of this company AMAG? I bought them this morning. they have a drug to help with pre term pregnancies and just bought a company that lets people store babies cord blood for future stem cell research. It's a very cheap stock and the company they just bought has a great recurring revenue business model to it.
ReplyDeleteZINC - Wow, that definitely was a huge promotion campaign.
ReplyDeleteWYNN - Must be something positive happening.
Putting in my 25% SPY bid at 188.73.
ReplyDeleteWell played. I'm surprisingly only down 0.2%. I got fully loaded on this dip today with all old man stocks and some AMAG. Now it's time for a some good old fashioned hope.
DeleteGold - Sure is a good story but I don''t trust it anymore.
ReplyDeleteSIVB - Down even more than KRE............ Something's up seems like. Or I should say, down..
ReplyDeleteAlmost two hours into the cash session now. Let's see. DJIA has recovered to -0.58%, EEM (emerging markets) a solid green at +1%, PBR (Petrobras) +4.5%, EWZ (Brazil) +1.8%, FXI (China) +2.1%, BABA (Alibaba) +4.1%. Great, that's another few hundred thousand Nervous Nellies who disembarked at lower elevations this morning.
ReplyDeleteBoy it sure seems like the whole EEM trade is set up to rip much higher. It’s all over the media about how people are fleeing EMs
ReplyDeleteSold QCOM at $54.68. May reload if it goes back down
ReplyDeleteTook off half of my positions into the euphoria higher.
DeleteLong SDS at $22.91 for a trade. Looking for a small fade.
ReplyDeleteSold it for a small profit. Watching for divergences...
DeleteAdding QCOM back
ReplyDeleteWall Street cheers (briefly?) a poor employment report. How convoluted is that?
ReplyDeleteBoy GPRO reminds me a lot of VA. I think VA bottomed at $0.05 above its IPO low.
ReplyDeletehttp://thefelderreport.com/2015/08/14/druck-backs-up-the-truck-and-loads-up-on-gold/
ReplyDeleteThese private social tech companies like Airbnb seem like a very big bubble and almost a certain to lose money - from the Globe and Mail:
ReplyDeleteIt’s taken me a few months to get over my shock at the fact that a recent equity offering valued Airbnb at $25.5-billion (U.S.). That’s more than most hotel industry giants, such as Marriott International, Starwood Hotels & Resorts or Wyndham Hotels and Resorts, and, depending on the day, about the same as Hilton Worldwide.
I’ve been trying to find the words to describe this valuation, but the only one that comes to mind is “ridiculous.” Yes, I’m an innovation guy and a huge believer in the power of digital and the sharing economy. But, the finance guy in me cannot figure out a true rationale for ascribing such value to a seven-year-old company with few assets and growing annual losses.
What happened to the good old days of assets and profits driving valuation?
At its core, Airbnb is simply a technology-based booking system that matches renters and providers of short-term accommodations. This is a model that can be easily replicated.
I believe that one of the great hoteliers listed above should have already pioneered this niche. They all have different brands in their chains, serving different markets. One of them should have created the “lifestyle” or “experience” banner that does what Airbnb does – matching travellers with locally owned “rooms” that bring travellers closer to local people and culture.
All of these large hoteliers have the ability to book rooms online. They also have existing systems to review and monitor rooms, service, and customer satisfaction. Should one of them step into this space, I believe that Airbnb will quickly become a financial afterthought.
Oh for sure a bubble, but a lot of these comments above are extremely naive. You could say the same thing about companies like Priceline which happens to have a much larger market cap than the average airline. It's an asset light business with an enormous amount of scale and the market leader generally has a massive defensible moat around it (just think of search engines and how much money MSFT has poured into Bing as an example).
DeleteWithout a look at the financials I have no idea how overvalued it is. My guess is its a lot, but the rationale for it being a bubble (ie it being more valuable than industry giants with huge capex costs / lack of leverage, one of the major players can just step into the space and offer the same thing and relegate Airbnb to irrelevance) is misplaced in my opinion.
By the way, I think the Contra the Heard guys are the ones that wrote this right? I have a lot of respect for their opinions and their performance record...just think their rationale about the business itself doesn't make much sense.
DeletePrivate social tech company with few assets and growing annual losses. Slap some lipstick and fragrance on it, I smell an IPO
DeleteNWLI - Gosh, wonder why this isn't running with the popular trade? BXE isn't either. Hans-Solo Deep value stuff for the 2nd coming.
ReplyDeleteEYES - Can't believe my eyes is up to the princely price of $5.68 !!!
I'm huge Jerry. Huge.
ReplyDeleteVA - Speaking of this, it's sitting on the trendline support.
ReplyDeleteClassic maximum frustration in the markets this week.
ReplyDeleteOn Tuesday, the DJIA rallied +100 points in the final minutes, reversing a -55-point decline (shaking out Nervous Nellies) to finish +45 points in the green.
On Wednesday, a continuation of the rally in the overnight futures market led to a 'gap up' open, forcing Tuesday's Nellies to chase the DJIA +200 points higher. Those who did were greeted with a mid-day plunge, triggering stop losses for most of them.
On Thursday, a another 'gap up' was followed by another beautifully-timed -176 point plunge in the DJIA an hour later.
Today, markets sold off hard (DJIA -250 points) on a 'bad' jobs report (what else is new), vindicating early week sellers. Markets have since reversed hard. With thirty minutes to go, DJIA now +155 points, EEM (Emerging Markets) +2.43%, EWZ (Brazil) +4.35%, PBR (Petrobras) +12.47%, FXI (China 'H' Shares) +3.8%, BABA (Alibaba) +7%.
Shorts (the ones who want the enjoy the weekend) likely to cover further heading into the close.
2.5% turnaround today - pretty impressive.
DeleteIf people wanted to sell today, the jobs report gave them the excuse and they didn't take it, so maybe selling is done.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/emerging-market-flows-set-to-go-negative-for-first-time-since-1988-2015-10-01?link=MW_home_latest_news
ReplyDeleteJust in time to signal the bottom in emerging markets!
Yeah that is what I mentioned above. Classic signs of capitulation. It happens time and time again
DeleteI'm very excited about this week. Had my best week in nearly 3 months, up about 5% on the week after staying in cash for a long time.
ReplyDeleteHere's to this not all evaporating next week.
With 2 minutes remaining till the end of the day, and SVXY almost reaching my sell limit order at $51 for the shares I picked up at $45 a few days ago, I decided not to be too greedy and moved down my sell limit order to $50.70, so as to sell it on the spot, which it did. Finally, I got a profitable trade! :) Now I need to unload my next bunch of SVXY, which I purchased at $53. I just placed a sell limit order for it at $56, which would require another 10% drop in VIX futures, from the current 21 to 19. Might happen next week, if I am lucky. :) If VIX starts moving up next week, then I have a plan B -- reload SVXY at $45, and I just placed a buy limit order there.
ReplyDeleteThe EEM chart does show a classic sign of a mid-term bottom -- a steep drop and then large oscillations in place. I'll probably go long EEM in some way once it rises above its recent spike at $34.5.
ReplyDelete"http://thefelderreport.com/2015/08/14/druck-backs-up-the-truck-and-loads-up-on-gold/"
ReplyDeleteIs that the cause for today's jump in the PM sector? The primary reason was probably the morning drop in $USD, which was probably unrelated to this article. But what COULD HAVE been related was the fact that despite $USD gaining back more than half of its drop today, GLD/GDX kept going up. Take a look at the 1-year GDX chart -- if it doesn't look like a classical bottom to you, then what will? I would buy a ton of it right here, if I would not already have a ton that I bought in early August, when GDX first dropped below $13.50...
no i just liked the article and the discussion about Druckenmillers fat pitch ideas. this article is 6 weeks old
DeleteAs I recall, Alexander Elder in his classic book "Come into my trading room" writes that amateurs squint hard while looking at the screens in order to find a trade that might work. Pros, on the other hand, sit back, relax, and glance at the screen occasionally, until a trade just jumps out at them, and they cannot refuse it. I've been trying to follow this idea after my trading hiatus, waiting for a fat pitch. I found only 2 of them recently -- long PM sector (via a ton of of GDX/GG calls when GDX dropped below $13.50) and then short volatility (via a ton of VXX puts when VXX rose above 26, and then chased this trade with SVXY). If EEM rises above $34.5, then that will be another fat pitch.
DeleteTBT - Bounced off trendline support going back to Feb, I just noticed. Seems too obvious.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - No volume spike occurring like would be expected and always leads to a rally.
BAC - I'd say odds players felt they could flip some shares if they could catch them in lower $15's, and did so.
SIVB - Pretty weak lately, considering what and where they are.
EXAS - Stuck in the mud.
Here is a note I just received from Cumberland Advisors:
ReplyDeleteThe good news in today’s BLS jobs report is that the unemployment rate remained at 5.1% in September. All the rest of the report has to be disappointing, especially to Fed officials. Up until today’s report, they were promoting the idea that the FOMC’s October meeting was “live” with regard to the possibility of the first upward move in interest rates in seven years towards a more normal stance of policy. That now seems to be dead in the water, and the odds of a move at the December meeting have faded significantly as well.
How bad was the report? Nearly all the indicators that Chair Yellen and other FOMC participants have recently cited as important in assessing labor market conditions showed some degree of deterioration. The headline number from the BLS’s employment survey indicated that the economy created only 142 thousand non-farm payroll jobs in September. This figure is far below the average of 199 thousand per month for 2015 and is down from an average of 250 thousand per month in 2014. To make matters more difficult for the FOMC, July’s figure was reduced some 22 thousand, and August’s number was revised down from 173 thousand to 136 thousand. With these adjustments the last three months’ increases now all fall below the reduced average for the year. Had those downward revisions been available to the FOMC at its September meeting, we may be sure that the upbeat note struck by some FOMC participants post-meeting would have been different. But there is more.
The labor force participation rate, which has been on a steady downward trend, continued to slide and it now stands at 62.4%, down from 62.6% in August. We have argued in other commentaries that it is not clear what that rate should be in equilibrium, but that open question has not stopped policy makers from looking for resurgence in the participation rate as evidence of an improvement in labor market conditions. Equally troubling, the employment-to-population rate declined to 59.2% after showing some increase through August. While there was some improvement in the number of people marginally attached to the work force, the number of “discouraged” workers – those who have given up looking for work because they don’t believe jobs are potentially available to them – was flat.
Based on this report, it now seems likely that the more dovish members of the FOMC, who are the dominant majority of participants, will conclude that the time for a policy move is yet a ways off. The revised employment data will cause them to downgrade their recent assessments of improvements in labor market conditions. Chair Yellen’s press conference and her more recent speech at the University of Massachusetts should leave no doubt about the extreme weight she gives to the labor market and Phillips Curve in shaping her policy views. Markets are now likely to downgrade any likelihood of a policy move in 2015, notwithstanding the dot chart and recent comments by FOMC participants. In fact, while some market commentators are now suggesting that a fourth round of quantitative easing may be called for, former Dallas Fed president, Richard Fisher, has stated that the FOMC is essentially out of ammunition.
So I am thinking that the bear market will not start because the Fed will be raising rates, but because the economy will start deteriorating and the Fed will refuse to initiate another round of QE. We are still somewhat far from this, since the market is still grappling with the fear of the Fed raising rates. When the market starts grappling with the fear of Fed not initiating a new QE, THEN it will be time to load up on SPY puts -- another fat pitch...
DeleteRecall when the FED didn't raise, the response was negative b/c the FED wasn't feeling confident it was time. Instead, the Yellen was dovish.
DeleteInteresting:
ReplyDeleteThink about this. N=22 $SPX down 6% or more after 3Q. Has NEVER been green by year end. Can '15 break it? $SPY
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_43500702.png?1443820578
I keep remembering the past couple winters where poor sales, etc. were blamed on weather. I think it was not robust, add also AMZN taking market share from WMT, etc.
DeleteQuite a few good Q4 returns in that list still, so not a reason to be bearish.
DeleteGood video interview with Detrick:
ReplyDeletehttp://ryandetrick.tumblr.com/post/130351127185/bnn-appearance-why-the-4q-could-be-a-good-one
AAPL closes at 110.38 exactly, to the penny, where it started the year at 110.38. Quadruple top this year and 50SMA is under the 200
ReplyDeleteMight be headed for mid/low 90's, shorts have a new toy thus leave the rest of us the heck alone or what?
Robot went long at 1929 Watch 1945 closely early next week. A back test to 1945 is likely to prove if the bulls have the beans to go higher, or not (bounce or die).
ReplyDeleteDavid- That was a great quote from Elder's book, first time I've seen it. That's one I'm going to remember.
ReplyDeleteI like this guy's name "Kocherlakota Says Low Inflation Warrants Further Fed Stimulus"
ReplyDeleteISIS falling back to regroup at Langley AFB?
ReplyDeleteSTON - They're dying to get in.
ReplyDeleteAnyone have a feeling on pain trade? My take is a gradual grind higher for the rest of the year to new highs.
ReplyDeleteIt's become more difficult to gauge where smart money and dumb money are positioned. Retail investors were supposedly short stocks last summer at the highest level in years, if not ever...and they turned out to be right! Did they cover their shorts in late August? I have no idea.
DeleteI think most people will look back at this period and realize that most technical analysis stuff doesn't work anymore and this was the time that reading sentiment thru social media (message board posts , Twitter posts, stocktwits sentiment) was the best indicator tools
DeleteI can't speak for social media, I knew trouble was brewing when I saw these ema's rolled over.
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BXE&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p55897940761
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NWLI&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p98476056546
If anything, I'd say social media was misleading, though. If it weren't for social media, I'd not have ridden BXE beyond $7 I'm sure, and would've sold @ $8 with a very small loss. Instead, social media convinced me to keep it despite a 5 year old should understand more oil and gas means lower prices.
DeleteSocial media would be cool if they were standing on the loading dock of Corporate America, and peering over the harbors counting ships. Nothing sm seems to inform seems like coherent thought.
Deletehttp://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2015/10/04/heres-why-you-should-get-excited-about-the-big-reversal/
ReplyDelete"If there is strength in weakness, then the market isn’t really weak."
DeleteThis is why I suspected everything else would follow energy down the rat hole. Not only was there more supply "experts" refused to consider but demand has been weak, I believe. Now I can't put my finger on where the strength leadership is.
I'm really not sure why I try to communicate with you guys anymore when there's never a coherent conversation. I feel like I'm just talking to a brick wall.
From what I'm hearing and seeing demand is fine. They're just raeally freaking good at finding and producing it.
DeleteSU bidding for COS.TO (Canadian Oil Sands). Using their stock, which has held in quite well, to buy an asset which has been hit hard. Part of the supply chain consolidation that eventually gets us to a sustainable place.
DeletePretty positive discussion on oil, even with Russia supply continuing to increase. Calling for a balanced market in Q4 and said demand growth this year the 2nd best in last 10:
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-02/oil-bulls-lose-faith-in-recovery-as-russia-adds-to-global-glut
And, from the same article:
To investor Jim Rogers, oil holding near $45 a barrel in the face of bearish news is a sign that prices are poised to recover.
“When there’s bad news and something doesn’t decline, it usually means it’s at a bottom and will be turning,” Rogers, who correctly predicted a commodities rally in 1999, said in an interview in Singapore on Thursday.
Futures up again this morning - maybe getting some follow through from Friday.
ReplyDeleteONCE - Spark Therapeutics announces positive top-line results from the Phase 3 pivotal trial of SPK-RPE65, for the treatment of RPE65-mediated inherited retinal dystrophies
ReplyDeleteWonder if this subject has any effect for EYES technology?
Jeff Saut on BNN this morning:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=720031
Thinks Friday's reversal could have been the successful retest of the lows and setting up for a Q4 rally.
Would avoid utilities and energy now, but thinks energy might be a good area for buying in the upcoming tax loss selling season.
new post
ReplyDeleteMMYT - Wow, and I sold half b/c it was dropping like a rock...
ReplyDelete