They're public for a reason I guess, either too big to go Private or bought out during weakness of the financial crash perhaps?
EROS has been in operation for 35 years, I've never bought anything from them as far as I know. XYL - I buy stuff made by these guys all the time, and now they're providing services to municipalities. Staying power, I dunno for sure but they make components that are used in our everyday lives so that's a good start. BC - People love their new boats around here, the Mercruiser is the gold standard and Yamaha does well also. It's often hard to justify the price of new boats for many $65-70k for a decent one is a stretch, but they're well made and should last a long time if they're taken care of and of course financing is important for many who just don't have the cash.
When we analyze the U.S. sector trends, it is becoming increasingly evident that we are seeing an acceleration of the rota tion into large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks. This trend is prevalent in many U.S. sectors. The most defined large-cap rotation is, not surprisingly, occurring in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors. The technology and discretionary rotation continues to be supported by strong Q3 earnings, low interest rates (favours growth stocks over value), and the uncertainty surr ounding the healthcare sector. As we have discussed earlier in our monthly overviews, a large-cap rotation is consistent with the late phase of the cycle. We saw similar rotations in the later- 1980s, 1990s, and during 2007–2008. Importantly, we believe that this is not a signal that the cycle is ab out to end. A large-cap rotation can last for extended periods, as we saw through the 1980s and 1990s. Although we recognize that there was a different macro backdrop in those previous periods, we continue to compare the current cycle with the later-1990s. In a less extreme but perhaps more concentrated rotation, we are again seei ng a trend develop where large-cap growth stocks dominate in today’s market.
I have been busy working on my startup businesses and have a few positions on. I see nothing had changed. The market continues to f*ck with people and grind everything other than a handful of stuff lower. My TA had a good day yesterday only to be followed by a horrible day today. I held some AAPL and TWTR overnight and sold both but bought TWTR back. I am probably going to chicken out and sell that into the close because they have earnings.
Also, just sold my January 2015 calls on GDX. Made a 50% gain on the first bunch, which I bought when GDX dropped to $13, and about 5% on the second bunch, which I added last week. Reason for selling: the upward momentum in GLD/SLV has waned, while at the same time, speculators on COMEX keep increasing their long positions. I posted a while ago, that I'll start booking profits when the short position of commercials (which take the opposite side of the trade from speculators) increases above 100K contracts. This happened last week, despite gold price going down a little:
Rags to Riches - Now would be a great opportunity to write an SA article about Hedge Funds called "Riches To Rags" and contrast their experiences with those of smaller no-name and nameless traders (could be fictional names even, "to protect their identity") describing how they also managed to hit it big briefly but eventually lost it all back to the casino.
ENPH - Another one winning the popularity contest. Not a peep concerning what might be causing this selling spree so I can only expect the comments will go something like: "I killed it all the way down".
On the other hand, commercial specs, who are usually short S&P futures, are now net long, and their long position is unusually large -- they take the opposite side of the trade from large speculators, who are unusually short the market now:
BTU - Nice to see this one getting crushed as so often seems to happen on a daily basis. The astounding miracle of alternative energy has become so competitive with stuff that's simply dug from the Earth using steam shovels.
This has me contemplating what the average concentration of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere was during the period the great coral reefs were forming.
BTW, also wondering why HP inkjet printers refuse to even try printing if it thinks the cartridge is empty. What's the point in that? Well, the cartridge isn't empty.
So this thing's going to be shit-canned onto the nearest coral reef.
Bought a Brother Laser printer a few years ago for $99. Only black and white, but one of the best buys I've ever made! Bought 1 toner cartridge since and never replace the drum and works like a champ. Can print for a couple months past when says ink low too!
Simple IS better when it comes to these. The Epson used to keep printing and didn't care about some silly ink sensor, wonder if that's still the case? I'm DONE with HP forever, last straw..
CBI sold their nuclear division to Westinghouse and taking a $1 billion hit due to writing down assets.
Stock up 10% after hours.
Earnings forecast for the quarter of $1.54, so annualize that to $6 for a $42 stock, so p/e of 7 and reduced execution risk and Westinghouse indemnifying the nuclear work it is buying.
They should be popping champagne at the Pentagon with this budget deal, which is better to defense than Ryan-Murray & close to Prez request — Mackenzie Eaglen (@MEaglen) October 27, 2015
Looks like good numbers out of RACE - car deliveries, revenue and profit up. Profit of 0.50 Euro, so about $0.55 USD. Annualize that to $2.20, so current p/e around 25, pretty expensive, but car deliveries expected to grow, so profits as well. And the thought is it should trade at much higher multiple than car manufacturers as it will have consistent earnings and not the cyclicality you see in the GM's, etc. of the world.
Will be interesting to see how the market reacts today.
if TWTR got off their ass and focused exclusively on driving revenues from search results like GOOGL that stock would be a home run. i use their search engine a ton. they have a jumbled search results page right now. they need to just clean it up and focus exclusively on good results and putting ads there like google
Now it seems like it wasn't just a simple pullback. Sold back those calls at a small loss. I think it is safer to wait for GDX to rise above today's highs, to make sure that the uptrend is still in place.
Finanicals really liking the fed statement with XLF up over 2% and KRE (small cap banks) up 3.5%. MET up almost 4%, NWLI up almost 5%.
Looks like "the rates are going up, financials will get revalued higher" trade might be starting, but we've had a lot of false starts the last few years. But I still really like this trade assuming you can be patient and am 50% financials.
DJIA +155 points to 17,736 + SPY +0.72% to 208.09 following the FOMC decision to stand pat on rates. EEM (emerging markets) not reacting positively, now -1%, although we are seeing solid spikes in oil (USO +6%) and oil services (OIH +3.2%). So a mixed picture for my positions.
Clearing the tablet at today's close. A little ticked off at not having traded around all positions the past week, as it was possible to sell each spike then reopen the following day at a discount.
Basically, I will take an overall minor loss on my most recent entry into the market (October 14) in order to protect the gains I earned playing the rally off the late September lows. Why am I concerned? Not sure. Just gut instinct. Nor would I classify my concerns as more than 'mild.' At this point sentiment appears 'overextended,' and I would prefer to see a decline to set up the next leg up.
Think I've figured out the sudden strong bounce in NWLI. You've had at least 5 small lifeco's taken out or in the process this year - PL, SYA, SFG, PNX, KCLI (sort of, going to OTC market). When I go through the list of remaining life insurers in the US, it is actually getting fairly small and if you want to invest in a smallcap for the leverage, NWLI is the cheapest and best run. A lot of people, like me, think owning life insurers is one of the best way to play the rise in interest rates when it come.
There's been quite a lot of volume (for NWLI) on this bounce, so that could be the funds holding these other lifeco's selling and moving into NWLI.
As of Wednesday’s close, we’ve seen the DJIA put in a stellar +9.2% gain (about +1500 points) for the month of October. It could go higher by Friday, but I’m having a hard time justifying the benefits of remaining long (or in my case, jumping back in) from a risk/reward perspective.
My thinking is if they add an Adwords product to their search feature like Google then revenues do a moonshot higher. I'm think this is a time to be bullish on the stock.
Chartwise, take a look at a simple comparison between NFLX in 2012 and TWTR now: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFLX&p=D&st=2012-02-12&en=2012-11-14&id=p92440267640
I know the fallacy of parallels like this but just look at the simple structure of the two: double bottom in August / October. Pop up out of the range and above the 50DMA. Consolidate, then move lower to test 50 DMA. Then pop back up to consolidation. The move after that was epic for NFLX: up 200% in the next 4 months. All while sentiment was complete shit.
Oh and they had a big name investor (Carl Icahn) take a stake at the lows, just like TWTR (Steve Ballmer).
TWTR's big problem is that the target market is actually quite small I think.
The only people I know who use it are investors, news junkies and guys trying to promote something. None of the "regular" people I know use TWTR anymore and none of my kids or their friends do.
Not that it won't be a good trade here, but I think longer term, they need to figure out how to better connect with people.
Its huge with sports and celebrities as well. They have 20% of the US population and 5% of the world's population on it and get about 900 million unique visitors a month. If that's a small target market then I want to know what's big!
I think all they have to do is monetize search better. Just put up a simple results page like Google has that allows media / celebrities / companies pay for keywords like in Google Adwords. I think that market opportunity is as big as 20% of Google's total revenue stream. I've said this for a year now ever since they started offering search on their site/app and yet they haven't made much headway so maybe I'm wrong. Or maybe they're still figuring out how best to set it up. I look at the power of their brand (free advertising everywhere) and the potential revenue stream from search alone and can't help but think that it should be worth more than 6% of FB or 3% of GOOGL.
Maybe you're right. I personally find it an OK product, kind of irritating, but does the job of consolidating things. I don't find it a high value product and if I didn't have twitter, I could get pretty much everything I want by signing up for blog updates to email.
Also, as far as getting growth, the younger generation (as judged by my kids and their friends) follow celebrities on instagram and all have stopped using twitter and don't see any reason to go back.
WD - This one's been moving up steadily, unlike many others I've been hearing of. Was just wondering what walks, so decided to check out stuff that walks and Walker came up.
Still holding BAC. I think this sucker will be in the mid $20's within 12-18 months. and I think they will get a nice boost to their dividend fairly soon. They have a lot of leverage to rising rates, even if its a small bump.
This morning I sold my remaining batch of GDX calls, while they still had a 50% gain in them (bought them when GDX was near 13). The price chart shows a clear rounded top, and long gold speculative positions on COMEX are too large...
Placed another buy limit order on EROS at $10.50. At the rate at which it is going down, I wouldn't be surprise if it tests its initial trading price of around $10, set 2 years ago...
Yeah, hopefully all the bad news (layoffs, dividends, lawsuits, business sale, etc) is out and priced in the stock now. The new CEO is supposed to be smart, so would think he is setting himself up for future success.
The company has 30.5 million registered users for Eros Now, its Netflix Inc.-like product that streams Bollywood movies and music, according to a person familiar with the matter. The company hasn’t disclosed how may of these users pay for the service or how many are monthly active users.
“We’re still feeling uncertain about the ErosNow user count,” Katz wrote. “Public websites that track app downloads (i.e. App Annie) show relatively low rankings for ErosNow vs. other Indian streaming services with lower user counts. We can’t reconcile the disparity and it’s a red flag for investors.”
SUNE - Is Tepper getting crushed? I'm not sure follwing Ackman is a good idea, he seems to be shooting from the hip? Solar - I guess home solar is under performing utility scale solar?
I think Miller makes a good point about bonds vs stocks. His main concern is if bonds rise quickly like in 2013 we could see a big spike in the market that will make it uninvestable for several years.
You mean if people sell bonds to buy stocks the market would zoom and stocks could get overpriced. Sounds like a nice problem to me, I could use some of that.
URI - Wow, I saw this giant truck hauling butt down the raod yesterday said "United Rentals" in big letters down the sides. I was busy driving so couldn't look to see what it was carrying or don't recall if it was enclosed but man what a nice new giant thing it was, had to be hauling something....
I actually think the SCTY news is good for ENPH as they use SEDG, and the leasing business model doesn't lend itself to higher end inverters or panels.
Missed Tepper on CNBC this morning. Think basically what he said is China interest rates are still too tight and need to loosen - would be good for stocks. Also, if China figures things out, Fed may be forced to raise rates very quickly.
Thank you for the EROS article, T3d! The EROS stock has indeed been behaving recently as if the company is just a fiction. But is it really the case? The company has been around for a LONG time, and it IS producing movies, some of which ARE making money, so they company should be worth SOMETHING, right?
EROS hit my buy limit at $10.50 this morning. Placed a sell limit at $13 for these shares. Let's see if it can get there by EOD. :)
CP, I picked $10.50 as a price that was very close to its initial trading price (two years ago) of $10, but slightly above the psychological "support" at a nice round number of $10. Unfortunately, EROS hit $10.50 today AFTER it registered the daily high, and after hitting $10.50 it didn't make it back to $13 yet. So this trade is still open. :)
FCAU - Campaign champions release of the highly anticipated Lionsgate film "THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY- PART 2," the final installment of "The Hunger Games"
What is this "Hunger Games", anybody heard of it before?
The commercial (i.e., smart money) short position in silver futures on COMEX has climbed from a record low in August to a record high as of this Friday. The commercial short position in gold futures has increased to almost record highs. Such an environment, historically, has always coincided with major tops in gold/silver...
As you can see, the last time when Large Speculators were net short to such a large extent as now and Commercial Speculators were net long to such a large degree was in the aftermath of the 2011 scare, which was followed by a straight line run in S&P from 1200 to 2100. I am not predicting such a run now, but a major decline in S&P in the near future would be totally out of whack with historical evidence...
One of my in-laws wants me to take over and manage his retirement portfolio and I'm really hesitant. He's in a different financial situation, has different needs (he has a good government pension, but a big mortgage, kids in school, etc.) and probably unrealistic expectations.
I'm just seeing a lot of downside and potential problems. I consider myself a stock trader who invests to meet my own requirements, which I understand very well. I think it's a different situation to try and understand someone else's situation and risk tolerance, etc. He's just "buy me some stocks and make me some money".
Its going. They're near flat this year which sucks given how much they were up at one point (25% or so). They're not good with managing money in general so its pretty low stress.
should have bought BABA a month ago. i was staring at that thing all day in the $59 area... i didn’t realize just how big they have gotten with people selling stuff on amazon. everyone is using them to find suppliers. if you are a manufacturer in china and not on alibaba you’re screwed. and they’re getting into india and thailand.
Finally, some EROS is appearing in my life. :) It hit a sell limit order at $13 this morning for the shares I purchased on Friday at $10.50. A 24% return in one day. :) My next sell limit is at $15 for the shares I purchased at $13.
EROS mentioned that in early November they will report strong quarterly earnings, so if I were short EROS, I would close my position prior to that release -- what if they provide evidence, in that report, that all the accusations are unfounded? The stock will jump back to $40! :)
So SPY is back to its previous highs, which was expected. Now it will probably bounce around 210 for a while, which is just what I need. If SPY lingers here for 3 more weeks, then November VIX futures will converge to the spot price, bringing VXX down another 10%(assuming VIX stays at 14), which would be sufficient for all my sell limit orders on VXX puts to be hit at nice prices.
In fact, all I need is for VXX to drop to $17 in order for my sell limit orders to get hit, which requires just one week of SPY not doing anything bad. :)
Does this have something to do with AMZN expanding into India?
ReplyDeleteI should say 'expanding IN India."
DeleteSpeaking of India...REDF, oh my god what a POS.
DeleteI honestly don't know how we ever make any money. I must have played ENPH 20 times long all the way down and killed it. Crazy.
DeleteIt's all a game at the end of the day. The majority of these companies don't have staying power
DeleteAnd by these I mean most of the publicly traded stocks
DeleteThey're public for a reason I guess, either too big to go Private or bought out during weakness of the financial crash perhaps?
DeleteEROS has been in operation for 35 years, I've never bought anything from them as far as I know.
XYL - I buy stuff made by these guys all the time, and now they're providing services to municipalities. Staying power, I dunno for sure but they make components that are used in our everyday lives so that's a good start.
BC - People love their new boats around here, the Mercruiser is the gold standard and Yamaha does well also. It's often hard to justify the price of new boats for many $65-70k for a decent one is a stretch, but they're well made and should last a long time if they're taken care of and of course financing is important for many who just don't have the cash.
I dunno, perhaps AMZN IS corporate America?
ReplyDeleteBigger question is, who is it we find mostly the losers?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yep, and quite a few get bought.
ReplyDeleteMore get bought than go bankrupt, by far, especially in the larger companies.
DeleteAGO - Looks like a successful retest of the 200SMA to me...
ReplyDeleteJust like the mkt, predator/prey.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fuzzfix.com/these-tourists-were-driving-through-a-game-reserve-when-something-breathtaking-happened/
Contemplating a FAS position heading into the Fed meeting this week.
ReplyDeleteGREK looks good.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.benvanvliet.net/Downloads/turtlerules.pdf
ReplyDeleteIt's amazing how closely the rules we learn 'in the trenches' adhere to the ones above.
DeleteFrom TD:
ReplyDeleteWhen we analyze the U.S. sector trends,
it is becoming increasingly evident that
we are seeing an acceleration of the rota
tion into large-cap stocks over small-cap
stocks. This trend is prevalent in many U.S. sectors. The most defined large-cap
rotation is, not surprisingly, occurring in the technology and consumer
discretionary sectors. The technology and discretionary rotation continues to be
supported by strong Q3 earnings, low interest rates (favours growth stocks over
value), and the uncertainty surr
ounding the healthcare sector.
As we have discussed earlier in our monthly overviews, a large-cap rotation is
consistent with the late phase of the cycle. We saw similar rotations in the later-
1980s, 1990s, and during 2007–2008. Importantly, we believe that this is not a
signal that the cycle is ab
out to end. A large-cap rotation can last for extended
periods, as we saw through the 1980s and 1990s. Although we recognize that there
was a different macro backdrop in those previous periods, we continue to compare
the current cycle with the later-1990s. In a less extreme but perhaps more
concentrated rotation, we are again seei
ng a trend develop where large-cap growth
stocks dominate in today’s market.
Also saying technology appears to be taking market leadership from healthcare this year and expects it to continue.
DeleteEROS- S2 today is 10.80
ReplyDeleteENPH- Neutral is the new buy.
ReplyDeleteJeff Saut cautious this week, saying rally not indicative of a broad market advance and looking for a trading top this week:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
I do find he tend to err on the side of caution, but still something to think about.
AKS - Getting whacked ahead of tomorrow morning earnings... par for the course.
ReplyDeleteSaudi Arabia cleared for purchase of $11B military ships.
ReplyDeleteZINC - Hmm, big day of downside....
ReplyDelete'Mea Culpa' on NFLX. Top-notch French thriller.
ReplyDeleteStill got EXAS?
DeleteMakes Honolulu seem like a deal, never knew Bay area was this wild. Supply and demand rules.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBjXUBMkkE8
Yep, wonder what the ratio of profitable to unprofitable Silicon Valley businesses is?
DeleteSIVB - Is Silicon Valley Bank bank overpriced? I always thought highly of this bank.
ReplyDeleteFMD - Oh my, looks like it fell back to Earth.
ReplyDeleteNatty scatter-bomb alert...
ReplyDeleteEROS - 10% of Erosnow is worth between $700m~$1B ? Does that make any sense?
ReplyDeleteCNX
ReplyDeleteCNX ?
DeleteTrades exactly like EROS, flat to up then crashes yet again.
DeleteAKS - My broker has assigned a $1 price target....?
ReplyDeleteSPH - The wattle and daub is blowing right off.
I have been busy working on my startup businesses and have a few positions on. I see nothing had changed. The market continues to f*ck with people and grind everything other than a handful of stuff lower. My TA had a good day yesterday only to be followed by a horrible day today. I held some AAPL and TWTR overnight and sold both but bought TWTR back. I am probably going to chicken out and sell that into the close because they have earnings.
ReplyDeleteHope you guys are faring well.
Just watching my s__t sink, lol. I can't help but think TA will be appreciably high in 6 months, but I've been wrong before.
DeleteJust sold my UPRO at $64.70, which I bought at around $61.70. I think I'll be able to buy UPRO back cheaper soon...
ReplyDeleteAlso, just sold my January 2015 calls on GDX. Made a 50% gain on the first bunch, which I bought when GDX dropped to $13, and about 5% on the second bunch, which I added last week. Reason for selling: the upward momentum in GLD/SLV has waned, while at the same time, speculators on COMEX keep increasing their long positions. I posted a while ago, that I'll start booking profits when the short position of commercials (which take the opposite side of the trade from speculators) increases above 100K contracts. This happened last week, despite gold price going down a little:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=GCZ15&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=150&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29%3BCOTDLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%2C16750848%29&chartindicator_3_code=COTLC&chartindicator_3_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_3_param_1=26112&chartindicator_3_param_2=153&chartindicator_4_code=COTDLC&chartindicator_4_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_4_param_1=26112&chartindicator_4_param_2=153&chartindicator_4_param_3=16750848&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
This is not the best environment to own many call options on PMs...
EYES - Very popular.
ReplyDeleteRags to Riches - Now would be a great opportunity to write an SA article about Hedge Funds called "Riches To Rags" and contrast their experiences with those of smaller no-name and nameless traders (could be fictional names even, "to protect their identity") describing how they also managed to hit it big briefly but eventually lost it all back to the casino.
ReplyDeleteENPH - Another one winning the popularity contest. Not a peep concerning what might be causing this selling spree so I can only expect the comments will go something like: "I killed it all the way down".
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, commercial specs, who are usually short S&P futures, are now net long, and their long position is unusually large -- they take the opposite side of the trade from large speculators, who are unusually short the market now:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ESZ15&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=150&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29%3BCOTDLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%2C16750848%29&chartindicator_3_code=COTLC&chartindicator_3_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_3_param_1=26112&chartindicator_3_param_2=153&chartindicator_4_code=COTDLC&chartindicator_4_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_4_param_1=26112&chartindicator_4_param_2=153&chartindicator_4_param_3=16750848&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
So I'll buy back UPRO on any market dip, if one happens over the next day or two...
BTU - Nice to see this one getting crushed as so often seems to happen on a daily basis. The astounding miracle of alternative energy has become so competitive with stuff that's simply dug from the Earth using steam shovels.
ReplyDeleteThis has me contemplating what the average concentration of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere was during the period the great coral reefs were forming.
CP, is this the way your mind works?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Dxy4n0UT82o?rel=0
Riches To Rags (R), Brotha! I wouldn't know man, lol, no tellin'.
DeleteBTW, also wondering why HP inkjet printers refuse to even try printing if it thinks the cartridge is empty. What's the point in that? Well, the cartridge isn't empty.
DeleteSo this thing's going to be shit-canned onto the nearest coral reef.
Sold TWTR at $31.95 after hours.
ReplyDeleteBought small piece back at $29.
DeleteAdded a little more at $28. Keeping it small. I think the numbers were fine
DeleteAdded a little at $27.2. I'm pretty sure I'll be doing this until $5
DeleteYep, automate the process via a series of stink bid orders, lol.
Delete"Eastbound And Down"
ReplyDeletehttp://kenhahn.users.oregonfast.net/index.html/Jerry%20Reed%20-%20Eastbound%20and%20Down%20(Smokey%20&%20the%20Bandit).mp3
$SPX - an important Trend-Line (via Peter Eliades) ...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/dVIwxaa5qMn
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/23/technician-market-top-could-last-a-decade.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/23/technician-market-top-could-last-a-decade.html
Maybe by then, natty gas will pay me to burn it?
DeleteHave not heard his name, Eliades, in a long time. Interesting chart.
DeleteOn second thought, I'll wait in the parking lot and throw this printer at the CEO one morning.
ReplyDeleteBought a Brother Laser printer a few years ago for $99. Only black and white, but one of the best buys I've ever made! Bought 1 toner cartridge since and never replace the drum and works like a champ. Can print for a couple months past when says ink low too!
DeleteSimple IS better when it comes to these. The Epson used to keep printing and didn't care about some silly ink sensor, wonder if that's still the case? I'm DONE with HP forever, last straw..
DeleteI know. Frustrating and very expensive when you add up those little cartridges over time.
DeleteMAC - Notice the insider buying.
ReplyDeleteNOC - It's easy to see where the priorities lie.
ReplyDeleteBXMT - That was a hammer today. 350 shares in AH
ReplyDeleteCBI sold their nuclear division to Westinghouse and taking a $1 billion hit due to writing down assets.
ReplyDeleteStock up 10% after hours.
Earnings forecast for the quarter of $1.54, so annualize that to $6 for a $42 stock, so p/e of 7 and reduced execution risk and Westinghouse indemnifying the nuclear work it is buying.
I sold that at $52, neglected to reload.
DeleteENPH- Well that sucked. I had a little chance to sell at a small profit for this batch yesterday but thought the GS upgrade would have more legs.
ReplyDeleteThey should be popping champagne at the Pentagon with this budget deal, which is better to defense than Ryan-Murray & close to Prez request
ReplyDelete— Mackenzie Eaglen (@MEaglen) October 27, 2015
Woo-hoo for LMT!
ReplyDeleteRAD - Cherry soda.
ReplyDeleteYNDX - I'm remembering the image of Obama and Putin shaking hands, but were they winking at each other as well?
ReplyDeleteLooks like good numbers out of RACE - car deliveries, revenue and profit up. Profit of 0.50 Euro, so about $0.55 USD. Annualize that to $2.20, so current p/e around 25, pretty expensive, but car deliveries expected to grow, so profits as well. And the thought is it should trade at much higher multiple than car manufacturers as it will have consistent earnings and not the cyclicality you see in the GM's, etc. of the world.
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see how the market reacts today.
BB- What was the final IPO price?
Delete$52
DeleteI sold out of TWTR and TA.
ReplyDeleteI bought NFLX at $103.1 this morning. Someone talk me out of this position please
if TWTR got off their ass and focused exclusively on driving revenues from search results like GOOGL that stock would be a home run. i use their search engine a ton. they have a jumbled search results page right now. they need to just clean it up and focus exclusively on good results and putting ads there like google
ReplyDeleteWhy did BOTH VIX and SPY tank after the Fed announcement???
ReplyDeleteBut VIX futures jumped???
ReplyDeleteVIX is all over the place -- the SPY options (from which the VIX price is derived) are, apparently, behaving wildly...
ReplyDeleteOn the assumption that this is just a knee-jerk reaction, bought 10 contracts of January 2017 $12 calls on GDX at $5.30.
ReplyDeleteNow it seems like it wasn't just a simple pullback. Sold back those calls at a small loss. I think it is safer to wait for GDX to rise above today's highs, to make sure that the uptrend is still in place.
DeleteI like the way you've been trading. More 'nimble.' Less 'stubborn.'
DeleteFinanicals really liking the fed statement with XLF up over 2% and KRE (small cap banks) up 3.5%. MET up almost 4%, NWLI up almost 5%.
ReplyDeleteLooks like "the rates are going up, financials will get revalued higher" trade might be starting, but we've had a lot of false starts the last few years. But I still really like this trade assuming you can be patient and am 50% financials.
Sold NFLX
ReplyDeleteI would steer very clear of miners and gold right now. Today is a big day in my opinion. I think Gold craters from here.
ReplyDeleteDon't disagree.
DeleteJust when TRX looks like it might be ready to pop! :)
DeleteDJIA +155 points to 17,736 + SPY +0.72% to 208.09 following the FOMC decision to stand pat on rates. EEM (emerging markets) not reacting positively, now -1%, although we are seeing solid spikes in oil (USO +6%) and oil services (OIH +3.2%). So a mixed picture for my positions.
ReplyDeleteClearing the tablet at today's close. A little ticked off at not having traded around all positions the past week, as it was possible to sell each spike then reopen the following day at a discount.
Basically, I will take an overall minor loss on my most recent entry into the market (October 14) in order to protect the gains I earned playing the rally off the late September lows. Why am I concerned? Not sure. Just gut instinct. Nor would I classify my concerns as more than 'mild.' At this point sentiment appears 'overextended,' and I would prefer to see a decline to set up the next leg up.
Small caps way outperforming today - either people like the more domestic focus or are feeling better about the markets and willing to take more risks
ReplyDeleteThink I've figured out the sudden strong bounce in NWLI. You've had at least 5 small lifeco's taken out or in the process this year - PL, SYA, SFG, PNX, KCLI (sort of, going to OTC market). When I go through the list of remaining life insurers in the US, it is actually getting fairly small and if you want to invest in a smallcap for the leverage, NWLI is the cheapest and best run. A lot of people, like me, think owning life insurers is one of the best way to play the rise in interest rates when it come.
ReplyDeleteThere's been quite a lot of volume (for NWLI) on this bounce, so that could be the funds holding these other lifeco's selling and moving into NWLI.
EXAS ?!?!?!
ReplyDeleteINT - Wow, hidden treasure.
ReplyDeleteAs of Wednesday’s close, we’ve seen the DJIA put in a stellar +9.2% gain (about +1500 points) for the month of October. It could go higher by Friday, but I’m having a hard time justifying the benefits of remaining long (or in my case, jumping back in) from a risk/reward perspective.
ReplyDeletei think the focus will be on individual stocks for the rest of the year.
DeleteBack into TWTR.
ReplyDeleteMy thinking is if they add an Adwords product to their search feature like Google then revenues do a moonshot higher. I'm think this is a time to be bullish on the stock.
DeleteChartwise, take a look at a simple comparison between NFLX in 2012 and TWTR now:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFLX&p=D&st=2012-02-12&en=2012-11-14&id=p92440267640
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TWTR&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09446593425
I know the fallacy of parallels like this but just look at the simple structure of the two: double bottom in August / October. Pop up out of the range and above the 50DMA. Consolidate, then move lower to test 50 DMA. Then pop back up to consolidation. The move after that was epic for NFLX: up 200% in the next 4 months. All while sentiment was complete shit.
Oh and they had a big name investor (Carl Icahn) take a stake at the lows, just like TWTR (Steve Ballmer).
TWTR's big problem is that the target market is actually quite small I think.
DeleteThe only people I know who use it are investors, news junkies and guys trying to promote something. None of the "regular" people I know use TWTR anymore and none of my kids or their friends do.
Not that it won't be a good trade here, but I think longer term, they need to figure out how to better connect with people.
Its huge with sports and celebrities as well. They have 20% of the US population and 5% of the world's population on it and get about 900 million unique visitors a month. If that's a small target market then I want to know what's big!
DeleteI think all they have to do is monetize search better. Just put up a simple results page like Google has that allows media / celebrities / companies pay for keywords like in Google Adwords. I think that market opportunity is as big as 20% of Google's total revenue stream. I've said this for a year now ever since they started offering search on their site/app and yet they haven't made much headway so maybe I'm wrong. Or maybe they're still figuring out how best to set it up. I look at the power of their brand (free advertising everywhere) and the potential revenue stream from search alone and can't help but think that it should be worth more than 6% of FB or 3% of GOOGL.
DeleteMaybe you're right. I personally find it an OK product, kind of irritating, but does the job of consolidating things. I don't find it a high value product and if I didn't have twitter, I could get pretty much everything I want by signing up for blog updates to email.
DeleteAlso, as far as getting growth, the younger generation (as judged by my kids and their friends) follow celebrities on instagram and all have stopped using twitter and don't see any reason to go back.
Silver report - Slightly under $15.60 support.
ReplyDeleteKKR vs XON - Which one?
ReplyDeleteWD - This one's been moving up steadily, unlike many others I've been hearing of. Was just wondering what walks, so decided to check out stuff that walks and Walker came up.
ReplyDeleteStill holding BAC. I think this sucker will be in the mid $20's within 12-18 months. and I think they will get a nice boost to their dividend fairly soon. They have a lot of leverage to rising rates, even if its a small bump.
ReplyDeleteI think you are right. Plus the lawsuits are going probably finishing up. So earnings should rise and management can get back focused on growth.
DeleteThis morning I sold my remaining batch of GDX calls, while they still had a 50% gain in them (bought them when GDX was near 13). The price chart shows a clear rounded top, and long gold speculative positions on COMEX are too large...
ReplyDeleteAlso, preparing to add more Eros to my life -- placed a buy limit at 13 and a buy stop at 14.
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought, moved buy limit up to 13.1
DeleteFilled! Placing a sell limit at 15...
DeleteEROS - Must be more of the same great news?
ReplyDeleteBXE - Remains my very best loser by far. About anything I touch that is in or does business in another country turns to s__t.
ReplyDeletePlaced another buy limit order on EROS at $10.50. At the rate at which it is going down, I wouldn't be surprise if it tests its initial trading price of around $10, set 2 years ago...
ReplyDeleteEnded up taking TWTR off. Maybe I just need to wait for sentiment to get completely washed out...
ReplyDeleteTWTR in s___ter, looks like.
DeleteI'll take BB's advice. It seems like it's too early for that one right now. The market is still risk averse.
DeleteJeez DB is still in the doghouse
ReplyDeleteYeah, hopefully all the bad news (layoffs, dividends, lawsuits, business sale, etc) is out and priced in the stock now. The new CEO is supposed to be smart, so would think he is setting himself up for future success.
DeleteChickenpookieOctober 29, 2015 at 6:47 AM
ReplyDeleteEXAS ?!?!?!
Opened around 9, squeezed shorts to 9.93, then slid as far as 6.81 before closing at 7.15.
Yepper, I noticed gains evaporated.
DeleteNFLX has a P/E of 280. EROS has a P/E of 17. What am I missing here?
ReplyDeleteFraud, of course.
DeleteEROS could be the VRX of streaming
DeleteThe company has 30.5 million registered users for Eros Now, its Netflix Inc.-like product that streams Bollywood movies and music, according to a person familiar with the matter. The company hasn’t disclosed how may of these users pay for the service or how many are monthly active users.
“We’re still feeling uncertain about the ErosNow user count,” Katz wrote. “Public websites that track app downloads (i.e. App Annie) show relatively low rankings for ErosNow vs. other Indian streaming services with lower user counts. We can’t reconcile the disparity and it’s a red flag for investors.”
Lots of google hits though!
DeleteIf we get a parabolic spike (30% or so) in AAPL over a 6 week period or so I would start to get pretty nervous about the market.
ReplyDeleteStill watching IBB to short?
Deleteid love a shot at $350
DeleteI like how it is still hanging in there. It is taking time to turn people negative, setting up for the big plunge like the Nasdaq in 2000.
DeleteVRX - More bad news in AH
ReplyDeleteVAR - Could be about to move up....
ReplyDeleteSUNE - Is Tepper getting crushed?
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure follwing Ackman is a good idea, he seems to be shooting from the hip?
Solar - I guess home solar is under performing utility scale solar?
Seaforth - This is the place I used to stay while in San Diego. Took me that long (months) to remember. I liked the Marina there.
ReplyDeleteThanks CP.
DeleteBTU - Fell a mere 24% today.
ReplyDeleteI think Miller makes a good point about bonds vs stocks. His main concern is if bonds rise quickly like in 2013 we could see a big spike in the market that will make it uninvestable for several years.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/bill-miller-now-is-a-perfect-time-to-buy-us-stocks.html
You mean if people sell bonds to buy stocks the market would zoom and stocks could get overpriced. Sounds like a nice problem to me, I could use some of that.
DeleteCould even short Treasuries.
URI - Wow, I saw this giant truck hauling butt down the raod yesterday said "United Rentals" in big letters down the sides. I was busy driving so couldn't look to see what it was carrying or don't recall if it was enclosed but man what a nice new giant thing it was, had to be hauling something....
ReplyDeleteUACL - Check it out man, what do you think?
ReplyDeleteHere's one person's take. FWIW
ReplyDeleteDue to aggressive accounting practices, EROS' reported earnings are significantly overstating the economic reality of its business model.
EROS' subsidiary financials reveal a lack of free cash flow and raise many questions about the company’s accounting.
The company has enriched its controlling family at the expense of shareholders through a series of related-party transactions.
Eros Now is poorly positioned to win the battle for streaming media in India and appears to have made meaningful misstatements to investors.
Based on the company's persistent negative free cash flow and growing debt and share count, we believe the stock is worthless.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3621886-unlike-the-name-investors-should-not-love-eros
Decent chance there is a chase in ultra high quality companies into year end. I'm thinking stocks like aapl
ReplyDeleteA lot of people got decimated by stocks like vrx sune mu eros etc. they will seek security is my guess
DeleteThis is why I was saying if we see a parabolic run in aapl I would be cautious about the market after that
DeleteI've been thinking the same sort of thing. Also large cap EU.
DeleteI think this could be part of the move of money from growth stocks to value stocks.
DeleteGrowth stocks have outperformed value by about 12% in the last year (IWF vs. IWD), so a reversion to the mean is due.
SCTY/FSLR
ReplyDeleteSCTY is rooftop, FSLR is utility scale?
DeleteENPH- http://www.petaluma360.com/news/4637309-181/petaluma-solar-company-bets-big?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5633432904d3013d6eec48e4&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
ReplyDeletePretty interesting comments about the future of solar.
Wish they would have had some pricing data. Interesting that the Hawaii ruling exempted battery systems wonder why.
DeleteWhich type of (or who's) solar cells are used with ENPH systems?
DeleteI actually think the SCTY news is good for ENPH as they use SEDG, and the leasing business model doesn't lend itself to higher end inverters or panels.
ReplyDeleteMissed Tepper on CNBC this morning. Think basically what he said is China interest rates are still too tight and need to loosen - would be good for stocks. Also, if China figures things out, Fed may be forced to raise rates very quickly.
ReplyDeleteYep, that's what I read. And he's worried about stocks, doesn't like SUNE
DeleteEXAS - Roth upgrade.
ReplyDeleteTA poking its head above the 50 DMA...just in time for another round of whack a mole I'm sure.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if you guys saw YRCW. Another really good earnings report. YRCW has so much leverage in their business model its ridiculous
ReplyDeleteThank you for the EROS article, T3d! The EROS stock has indeed been behaving recently as if the company is just a fiction. But is it really the case? The company has been around for a LONG time, and it IS producing movies, some of which ARE making money, so they company should be worth SOMETHING, right?
ReplyDeleteEROS hit my buy limit at $10.50 this morning. Placed a sell limit at $13 for these shares. Let's see if it can get there by EOD. :)
$13.88, so I guess you made some. :) I don't know how you picked $10.50 but good job.
DeleteCP, I picked $10.50 as a price that was very close to its initial trading price (two years ago) of $10, but slightly above the psychological "support" at a nice round number of $10. Unfortunately, EROS hit $10.50 today AFTER it registered the daily high, and after hitting $10.50 it didn't make it back to $13 yet. So this trade is still open. :)
DeleteYep, I see now.
DeleteYeah, if your using it as a trading Sardine, who cares just give me price volatility.
ReplyDeleteGood Luck
EXAS - Got off it's azz today.. Will it stink next week?
ReplyDeleteEYES CC transcript.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3628836-second-sight-medicals-eyes-ceo-will-mcguire-on-q3-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
What's the scoop, for some reason it won't download over here. I guess based on the reaction it's not positive.
DeleteSept 2, 2015 - 11:11AM Westport (WPRT) to Acquire Fuel Systems Solutions at Investopedia
ReplyDeleteFCAU - Campaign champions release of the highly anticipated Lionsgate film "THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY- PART 2," the final installment of "The Hunger Games"
ReplyDeleteWhat is this "Hunger Games", anybody heard of it before?
Haha for real?
DeleteIt's a LGF film...big reason the stock has done so well
That's what I'm looking for, a stock that goes up! :)
Delete'Ink and Steel,' an intelligent Mob thriller. Available on Amazon Prime. Highly recommended.
ReplyDeleteThe commercial (i.e., smart money) short position in silver futures on COMEX has climbed from a record low in August to a record high as of this Friday. The commercial short position in gold futures has increased to almost record highs. Such an environment, historically, has always coincided with major tops in gold/silver...
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, the commercial short position in S&P futures has stayed at a record low last week. In fact, commercials are *net long* S&P futures!
ReplyDeleteThe KC Royals seem a bit clownish to me...
ReplyDeleteSolid baseball team. Loads of talent. And you could never count them out.
DeleteI figured out a way to look back 5 years at the COT reports for S&P futures:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ESZ15&style=technical&template=&p=WN&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29&chartindicator_1_code=COTLC&chartindicator_1_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_1_param_1=26112&chartindicator_1_param_2=153&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
As you can see, the last time when Large Speculators were net short to such a large extent as now and Commercial Speculators were net long to such a large degree was in the aftermath of the 2011 scare, which was followed by a straight line run in S&P from 1200 to 2100. I am not predicting such a run now, but a major decline in S&P in the near future would be totally out of whack with historical evidence...
Good work David, thanks for sharing.
DeleteENPH S2 is 3.20 today. I'll try and add back there. I was going to wait until earnings but if it get's there that's close enough for me.
ReplyDeleteENPH - Getting punished again, did we ever figure out WTF?
ReplyDeleteGrabbed some grpn today at $3.755
ReplyDeleteCG - Guess I shoulda added more....
ReplyDeleteMike,
ReplyDeleteHow's it going managing the in-laws money?
One of my in-laws wants me to take over and manage his retirement portfolio and I'm really hesitant. He's in a different financial situation, has different needs (he has a good government pension, but a big mortgage, kids in school, etc.) and probably unrealistic expectations.
I'm just seeing a lot of downside and potential problems. I consider myself a stock trader who invests to meet my own requirements, which I understand very well. I think it's a different situation to try and understand someone else's situation and risk tolerance, etc. He's just "buy me some stocks and make me some money".
Its going. They're near flat this year which sucks given how much they were up at one point (25% or so). They're not good with managing money in general so its pretty low stress.
DeleteFriday remains best day of week to buy DUST, time after time.
ReplyDeleteGRPN- I never hear anything about that one any more. Still trying to find more revenue streams?
ReplyDeleteJust looking for a trade into earnings tomorrow.
DeleteWMT- We'll that one resolved itself to the downside...
ReplyDeleteBack to the price Buffet bought it at a few years ago.
DeleteProbably a good buy now unless AMZN can do to WMT what WMT did to SHLD.
AMZN provides the hammer, BABA provides the nails.
DeleteRandomly clicking on tickers and hit RAX.
ReplyDeleteRAX is moving up
ReplyDeleteCG - Well, I never heard the starting gun fire.... so WTF?
ReplyDeleteSTON - Wow, that thing did rip higher. Pun intended. :)
ReplyDeleteshould have bought BABA a month ago. i was staring at that thing all day in the $59 area... i didn’t realize just how big they have gotten with people selling stuff on amazon. everyone is using them to find suppliers. if you are a manufacturer in china and not on alibaba you’re screwed. and they’re getting into india and thailand.
ReplyDeleteI have a tough time trusting anything Chinese, inclusive of economic data. Would rather trust Ackman.
DeleteNVDA - Like that chart? Pretty good, eh? Now, let's discuss ENPH, WTF?
ReplyDeleteFinally, some EROS is appearing in my life. :) It hit a sell limit order at $13 this morning for the shares I purchased on Friday at $10.50. A 24% return in one day. :) My next sell limit is at $15 for the shares I purchased at $13.
ReplyDeleteEROS mentioned that in early November they will report strong quarterly earnings, so if I were short EROS, I would close my position prior to that release -- what if they provide evidence, in that report, that all the accusations are unfounded? The stock will jump back to $40! :)
$40 works for me. :)
DeleteDo you also have a position in EROS?
DeleteSo SPY is back to its previous highs, which was expected. Now it will probably bounce around 210 for a while, which is just what I need. If SPY lingers here for 3 more weeks, then November VIX futures will converge to the spot price, bringing VXX down another 10%(assuming VIX stays at 14), which would be sufficient for all my sell limit orders on VXX puts to be hit at nice prices.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, all I need is for VXX to drop to $17 in order for my sell limit orders to get hit, which requires just one week of SPY not doing anything bad. :)
DeleteNix NOx (NO is NOX), yes to N2O...
ReplyDelete