I don't do it. It's a standard tool from Schwab. The formula is easily found on line. I suspect it works pretty well becasue lots of people use it. R2 today for ENPH was 4.34.
Apparently, too many people were thinking like I did and were betting on the "obvious" recent trend of higher lows and higher highs in the intraday SPY data to result in a spike up. Looks like all those people first need to be disappointed before the real move can occur...
well the argument FOR eros is that they own significant amounts of content in India and as a result anyone that wants to offer streaming has to purchase their content. But who knows man.
Municipal water companies drawing water from the Potomac filter it then flush the trapped "sediment" back to the river. Suits for discharging this filtered waste are being filed as a violation of the clean water act..
The pause that refreshes. Emerging Markets + Commodities ramp out of the gate. EEM +1.6%, EWZ (Brazil) +3%, PBR (Petrobras) +5%, OIH (oil services) +2.5%.
Not if you like extruded hamburgers. I'll admit, they have their place in life. If you're traveling distance for instance, like I do, a 10 minute pitstop is the limit thus MCD fits the bill. No, I don't seek out the MCD, I prefer Burger King. This last comment was intentional to cause you some confusion b/c I guess you don't EVER eat at either of these.
Yep, according to what I hear he's buying more. Some are expecting his other holdings might become weaker if he has to liquidate such as his HLF short. Speculation someone's attacking his positions trying to break him.
I picked up KTHN yesterday and today off that really impressive earnings report and just the fact that its around the cheapest bank stock in the market in my opinion. Brent owns this one and mentioned it here before. They have done $0.86 so far in the first 3 quarters and are trading at around 0.63x Book.
Its tough to take a big position without moving the stock. In fact I think I accounted for 90% of the volume the past 2 days. I might add a little more but have to be patient.
CYH - Incredible, I had no idea nobody in that crowded emergency waiting room is paying their hospital bills. Or, maybe healthcare insurance isn't required to pay hospitals?
CG - I bought a position yesterday near the lows, so I'm noting it here as a test in expectation the stock plummets immediately once I hit the "publish" button.
All that eros was sweet but short... Just stopped out flat. Will make a second attempt, though, if it rises above the previous intraday high of 17.50 (placed a buy stop limit order there)
that stock is a horror show. i bought at $29, watched it go to $33, then sold at $20. I went from up 10% to down 30% in the matter of a week. mind boggling. Great example of not letting a gain turn into a loss if you're a trader.
It certainly makes me wonder how I wound up owning any. EYES is another example of an obvious strikeout that sounded good on the surface but had not enough info to make an educated decision aside from a chart that wasn't all fu__ed up and looked like c__p.
RBA - Am I the only one who wonders how much money this company stands to make by liquidating all that oil services fleet of hardware, pipe trenchers and all other manor of equipment?
NWLI - Fasten seatbelts and get 'em while they're hot, just one hour to go for the next $6 leg up (and thanks for enduring the complete year of lower lows.....)
Wow - great day in the markets! Been out golfing the last couple days as we are probably into our last couple weeks of decent weather here before they all shut down. Going out again tomorrow and Sunday if the weather holds.
AGO taking a beating on Puerto Rico news. I think this gets resolved and AGO goes higher, Also been looking at other Puerto Rico stocks for opportunities.
Commercial Insurer ORI had good earnings and could be making a good move upwards. It has traditionally traded in line with other smaller P&C companies, the closest one being CINF. ORI was held back due to their investment in mortgage insurance, but that is pretty much cleared up, there's still about 30% upside to catch up on valuations.
AGO - I bet you're right, hard to know if speculators will be saved by a defaulted government. Maybe a slam-dunk..... It does always come back like a cat with 9-lives...
PSEC - I guess this action is either mysterious or in preparation for ex-div, there seems to be some element who distribute going into ex-div, probably don't want to bother filing IRS paperwork or pay the tax?
All that eros was sweet but short... Just stopped out flat. Will make a second attempt, though, if it rises above the previous intraday high of 17.50 (placed a buy stop limit order there)
Re KNTH, even though it is hard to trade, often the news doesn't get reflected in these obscure stocks price right away, so you can take advantage of you are paying attention.
Still working on my approach for small banks. Think I will be buying a few more to play for the US consumer rebound.
I still think we get a significant selloff in gold here at some point over the next year. whether the miners follow suit is hard to gauge given how beaten up they are. but i think the fact that we just got the highest bearish / cash levels / sentiment readings since the 2009 bottom reinforces my opinion that a lot of people continue to view gold as a hedge and are hiding there. if we do get a rally in the market that goes to new highs and then some, i think you will see a whoosh down in gold as people scramble out of there and into stocks. i don't think we have hit that stage yet. i think as far as gold goes in comparison to the sentiment chart below, we haven't seen the panic or discouragement phases: https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRZwBn0mh9XgOfCBdVMmdkyHPWxyevCkVpujggneZWcuM3vzto2
likewise, i don't think we have seen the enthusiasm phase for equities.
Nice moves up in the big base metal miners like TCK and VALE today, even though earnings were crap - expectations are very low for all miners, and I think they are for gold miners too, but the valuations on gold miners are not cheap if you assume $1,100 gold. Ideally you want gold to go to $1,000, but the miners to price the stocks like gold is going to $700 - that would be a good sign all hope has been washed from these guys.
The way silver has sunk back to near or retest 15.60 makes me think there's some unfinished business down there somewhere. If the FED does raise as promised, that will be positive for the $US so maybe PMs take a hit from that?
I can't think of a reason why the $US should crater as some contend.
DJIA closed +321 points (+1.87). EEM +2.07%. Markets are grinding higher, creating a dilemma for under-invested fund managers and shorts. Further 'gaps up' Friday morning, in my opinion.
MEMP - Is that 40% dividend going to pay off the cost of holding the stock by the time the dividend gets cut to zero? Hedges in place run out eventually.
Good day for big cap tech. I have a position in AAPL which is doing well. Its pretty obvious to me where in a low risk taking environment right now as people got their heads spun around. The first area they seek to get exposure to the market is big caps and the first area they seek to get exposure to growth is big cap tech (AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL). After this rotation which will probably take some time, I think we will get the next wave into the more speculative stuff.
XYL - Uses methyl alcohol in the municipal water cleanup process to remove nitrogen. Nitrogen in rivers flows to the bay and causes algae blooms. The clean water act is requiring increased control of discharging these effluents from municipal water systems.
DC water has decided to send all of it's waste water through the Blue Plains water treatment system before being discharged into the Potomac..
So as not to tempt EROS on the downside, I just cancelled my sell stop order at $16.20. I had a distinct feeling that EROS was aiming right for that order. The higher high it made this morning is encouraging, which is why I cancelled my sell stop order.
Looks like they weren't targeting my stop... Should have kept it in place -- could have repurchased EROS now. I am not worried about EROS going below 15 permanently -- 15 is a very strong support for it...
What did Draghi say today??? Why is $USD up so much again??? It really spoils the whole 1-year $USD chart, which no longer looks bearish. So much for my hopes about gold moving up strongly when $USD breaks below 94... It is encouraging, however, to see the miners up for a second day in a row -- the PM investors must be thinking something else...
Shouldn't oil companies be forced to pay for new rainwater runoff treatment infrastructure to remove grease and oils deposited on roads from gasoline vehicles?
CP, USD should go lower because it has rallied from 80 to 100 in expectations of a steadily rising Fed funds rate. Now those expectations are receeding, and if the economy continues to deteriorate, we'll get QE instead.
REXX - Might be low risk here, especially if David's right about $US? A weak $US would benefit export manufacturing thus a tailwind for improving natty demand?
EROS - Nice to read some explanation.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-23/eros-tanks-as-wells-fargo-analyst-questions-company-s-financials?cmpid=yhoo.headline
MWB.
ReplyDeleteMark, how do you create such informative charts with support and resistance levels?
ReplyDeleteI don't do it. It's a standard tool from Schwab. The formula is easily found on line. I suspect it works pretty well becasue lots of people use it. R2 today for ENPH was 4.34.
DeleteApparently, too many people were thinking like I did and were betting on the "obvious" recent trend of higher lows and higher highs in the intraday SPY data to result in a spike up. Looks like all those people first need to be disappointed before the real move can occur...
ReplyDeleteIf I had cash remaining, I would buy SVXY at the close. But I used it all up for buying EROS...
ReplyDeleteAwesome entry!
DeleteThanks to Mark's charts, I now know where to sell it -- at R1, which is at $24. Will be a nice 50% gain if it gets there. :)
DeleteI grabbed some KORS and AAPL and sold GREK into the close. Just in case this was a shakeout move I would like to have some longs in place.
ReplyDeleteSold KORS after hours at $40.35.
DeleteAll of my positions pulled back today. Not worried about it (yet).
ReplyDeleteI expect daily S1, S2, R1, and R2 values on all positions mentioned in this blog!
ReplyDeleteEROS - I'm thinking NFLX could crush EROS like a little bug. Or maybe the little guy has a chance, somehow? Thoughts?
ReplyDeletewell the argument FOR eros is that they own significant amounts of content in India and as a result anyone that wants to offer streaming has to purchase their content. But who knows man.
DeleteTBT - $32 target on 1 yr H&S chart? Seems unlikely, huh?
ReplyDeleteMunicipal water companies drawing water from the Potomac filter it then flush the trapped "sediment" back to the river. Suits for discharging this filtered waste are being filed as a violation of the clean water act..
ReplyDeleteMy plays for this were XYL and ACM, Jay-Dee isn't listed in US.
DeleteDHR has done pretty well also,not sure their involvement as there's no mention of DHR in the articles I've read.
DeleteThe pause that refreshes. Emerging Markets + Commodities ramp out of the gate. EEM +1.6%, EWZ (Brazil) +3%, PBR (Petrobras) +5%, OIH (oil services) +2.5%.
ReplyDeleteEROS- How reliable are the financials?
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure it was a pump and dump, given the timing of all the interest just before the hammer fell.
DeletePut it this way, what can be accomplished with 300 employees vs NFLX ? Or have I overlooked an aspect?
DeleteMCD is dead hun?
ReplyDeleteNot if you like extruded hamburgers. I'll admit, they have their place in life. If you're traveling distance for instance, like I do, a 10 minute pitstop is the limit thus MCD fits the bill. No, I don't seek out the MCD, I prefer Burger King. This last comment was intentional to cause you some confusion b/c I guess you don't EVER eat at either of these.
DeleteI love the egg mcmuffins.
DeleteI call 'em eggamuffins, MCD is called the rainbow room.
DeleteVRX - Is Ackman a putz? I realize we don't tend to carry on comprehensive conversation or exchange thought beyond superficial three letter acronyms.
ReplyDeleteis he still in it?
DeleteYep, according to what I hear he's buying more. Some are expecting his other holdings might become weaker if he has to liquidate such as his HLF short. Speculation someone's attacking his positions trying to break him.
DeleteI picked up KTHN yesterday and today off that really impressive earnings report and just the fact that its around the cheapest bank stock in the market in my opinion. Brent owns this one and mentioned it here before. They have done $0.86 so far in the first 3 quarters and are trading at around 0.63x Book.
ReplyDeleteIts tough to take a big position without moving the stock. In fact I think I accounted for 90% of the volume the past 2 days. I might add a little more but have to be patient.
Bought back into KORS at $39.8
ReplyDeleteVRX - Wow, what a move prompted by those citron guys calling it a scam and killing Ackman.
ReplyDeleteCYH - Incredible, I had no idea nobody in that crowded emergency waiting room is paying their hospital bills. Or, maybe healthcare insurance isn't required to pay hospitals?
ReplyDeleteLABU - Check out the recent volume...
ReplyDeleteANTM - Back to previous support.
ReplyDeleteURI - Wow, buddy! Despite even, the strong $US !!! Behold the miracle, this company sells their used equipment overseas by the container load.
ReplyDeleteI bought a big position in bac today at a 16.06 avg
ReplyDeleteAnyone positive on vlkay
Not here, no f'in way, they crossed the line with that stunt. NEVER tell the global warming greenies to go to hell.
DeleteYeah it was pretty bad. Just wonder how much of that is priced in
DeleteThat;s a great question, I don't want to find out using my money. Already I've had enough devistating bad ideas.
DeleteCG - I bought a position yesterday near the lows, so I'm noting it here as a test in expectation the stock plummets immediately once I hit the "publish" button.
ReplyDeleteDJIA is up 300pts and all but one of my stocks is red. How's that for owning all the right stuff?
ReplyDeleteEROS - This is about the time of day this one takes it's next -20% leg down. Nice....
ReplyDeleteAKS - DB cut their target in half. They didn't do this back in May, oh no, they did it AFTER the stock crashed and put in it's 52wk low.
ReplyDeleteAll that eros was sweet but short... Just stopped out flat. Will make a second attempt, though, if it rises above the previous intraday high of 17.50 (placed a buy stop limit order there)
ReplyDeleteWow, eros bounced right after stopping me out! Hard to believe the were just targetting my order -- it was very small relative to the daily volume
DeleteI'm pretty sure it's not done crashing.
Deletethat stock is a horror show. i bought at $29, watched it go to $33, then sold at $20. I went from up 10% to down 30% in the matter of a week. mind boggling. Great example of not letting a gain turn into a loss if you're a trader.
DeleteIt certainly makes me wonder how I wound up owning any. EYES is another example of an obvious strikeout that sounded good on the surface but had not enough info to make an educated decision aside from a chart that wasn't all fu__ed up and looked like c__p.
DeleteBXE - I guess this one's back to resume crashing following the Canadian election.
ReplyDeleteVA housing contractors have a 25% spread on handling the home sales transactions for VA employee relocations.
ReplyDeleteRBA - Am I the only one who wonders how much money this company stands to make by liquidating all that oil services fleet of hardware, pipe trenchers and all other manor of equipment?
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Fasten seatbelts and get 'em while they're hot, just one hour to go for the next $6 leg up (and thanks for enduring the complete year of lower lows.....)
ReplyDeleteENPH - Here's an idea I managed to escape somehow. It's amazing how such a large percentage of ideas are money losers.
ReplyDeleteWow - great day in the markets! Been out golfing the last couple days as we are probably into our last couple weeks of decent weather here before they all shut down. Going out again tomorrow and Sunday if the weather holds.
ReplyDeleteAGO taking a beating on Puerto Rico news. I think this gets resolved and AGO goes higher, Also been looking at other Puerto Rico stocks for opportunities.
Commercial Insurer ORI had good earnings and could be making a good move upwards. It has traditionally traded in line with other smaller P&C companies, the closest one being CINF. ORI was held back due to their investment in mortgage insurance, but that is pretty much cleared up, there's still about 30% upside to catch up on valuations.
AGO - I bet you're right, hard to know if speculators will be saved by a defaulted government. Maybe a slam-dunk..... It does always come back like a cat with 9-lives...
DeleteJAZZ - Well Halleluiah... Sheesh.
ReplyDeletePSEC - I guess this action is either mysterious or in preparation for ex-div, there seems to be some element who distribute going into ex-div, probably don't want to bother filing IRS paperwork or pay the tax?
ReplyDeleteAll that eros was sweet but short... Just stopped out flat. Will make a second attempt, though, if it rises above the previous intraday high of 17.50 (placed a buy stop limit order there)
ReplyDeleteSo now EROS triggered my buy stop at 17.50 -- if it goes down from here, then they are just hunting small fish like me...
ReplyDeleteHave to follow the discipline, so I placed a sell stop limit at $16.20/$16.10, just below today's lows.
DeleteRe KNTH, even though it is hard to trade, often the news doesn't get reflected in these obscure stocks price right away, so you can take advantage of you are paying attention.
ReplyDeleteStill working on my approach for small banks. Think I will be buying a few more to play for the US consumer rebound.
I bought AAPL into the close at $115.4. Looks like I got lucky with the amazing moves up for GOOGL / AMZN / MSFT after earnings
ReplyDeleteMy thinking was it would rally into earnings next week since that seems to be the pattern with all of these big cap tech stocks heading into earnings.
DeleteI just noticed that HUGE jump in $USD today -- what was THAT about??? Why did the miners rally???
ReplyDeleteDraghi signalled his willingness to continue QE in Europe...
DeleteI still think we get a significant selloff in gold here at some point over the next year. whether the miners follow suit is hard to gauge given how beaten up they are. but i think the fact that we just got the highest bearish / cash levels / sentiment readings since the 2009 bottom reinforces my opinion that a lot of people continue to view gold as a hedge and are hiding there. if we do get a rally in the market that goes to new highs and then some, i think you will see a whoosh down in gold as people scramble out of there and into stocks. i don't think we have hit that stage yet. i think as far as gold goes in comparison to the sentiment chart below, we haven't seen the panic or discouragement phases:
Deletehttps://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRZwBn0mh9XgOfCBdVMmdkyHPWxyevCkVpujggneZWcuM3vzto2
likewise, i don't think we have seen the enthusiasm phase for equities.
Nice moves up in the big base metal miners like TCK and VALE today, even though earnings were crap - expectations are very low for all miners, and I think they are for gold miners too, but the valuations on gold miners are not cheap if you assume $1,100 gold. Ideally you want gold to go to $1,000, but the miners to price the stocks like gold is going to $700 - that would be a good sign all hope has been washed from these guys.
DeleteThe way silver has sunk back to near or retest 15.60 makes me think there's some unfinished business down there somewhere. If the FED does raise as promised, that will be positive for the $US so maybe PMs take a hit from that?
DeleteI can't think of a reason why the $US should crater as some contend.
DJIA closed +321 points (+1.87). EEM +2.07%. Markets are grinding higher, creating a dilemma for under-invested fund managers and shorts. Further 'gaps up' Friday morning, in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteFutures already up a quarter point likely because of the good after-hours earnings today.
DeleteNasdaq futures up almost half a point as AMZN, GOOG and MSFT make up 20% of the QQQ and all had good earnings.
David-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.lipperusfundflows.com/#create:newsline:Newsline Article:/php/newsline.php?id=2438
Investors not displaying much exuberance. Exactly what we want to see.
Despite the recent rally, investors reduced exposure to stocks over the past five days. I think they call that climbing a wall of worry.
DeleteLooks like the futures have continued to improve overnight and now up almost 1%, so should be a strong open. Let's see how well it holds.
ReplyDeleteMSFT - Better than a double from $20
ReplyDeleteI was thinking of INTC, not quite a double (yet).
DeleteStrongest storm measured EVER, in western hemisphere. We've been measuring what, maybe 100 years?
ReplyDeleteWhat are they measuring?
DeleteNot sure, I'm used to measuring volume and girth? Perhaps wind? No wind in BWEN sails though. :)
DeleteWho makes EV charging stations, GE or maybe AEIS?
ReplyDeleteVRX - Perhaps Ackman shouldn't buy stock in a company he can't buy entirely, outright.
ReplyDeleteEROS - Never ceases to amaze...
ReplyDeleteYou know its going right back to $30 right?
DeleteKCLI- BB, how much longer??
ReplyDeleteMEMP - Is that 40% dividend going to pay off the cost of holding the stock by the time the dividend gets cut to zero? Hedges in place run out eventually.
ReplyDeleteARP - Also similar except debt exceeds equity.
DeleteACPW - Got your (fly)wheels turning?
ReplyDeleteJAZZ - My JAZZ seems to be coming back.
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeletere KCLI, the meeting is to be held by December 15th and the payout very shortly thereafter.
At the current price of $49.65, your return will be 6.2% or 45% annualized, so still worth holding in my way of thinking.
Good day for big cap tech. I have a position in AAPL which is doing well. Its pretty obvious to me where in a low risk taking environment right now as people got their heads spun around. The first area they seek to get exposure to the market is big caps and the first area they seek to get exposure to growth is big cap tech (AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL). After this rotation which will probably take some time, I think we will get the next wave into the more speculative stuff.
ReplyDeleteIts at that next point that I'm thinking gold REALLY sells off. We need people to get confident in order for that to happen though.
DeleteXYL - Uses methyl alcohol in the municipal water cleanup process to remove nitrogen. Nitrogen in rivers flows to the bay and causes algae blooms. The clean water act is requiring increased control of discharging these effluents from municipal water systems.
ReplyDeleteDC water has decided to send all of it's waste water through the Blue Plains water treatment system before being discharged into the Potomac..
CP you like/own XYL?
Deletedo not look at EROS now, bungee.
So as not to tempt EROS on the downside, I just cancelled my sell stop order at $16.20. I had a distinct feeling that EROS was aiming right for that order. The higher high it made this morning is encouraging, which is why I cancelled my sell stop order.
ReplyDeleteJust in time! EROS just touched 16.2X and would have stopped me out!
DeleteLooks like they weren't targeting my stop... Should have kept it in place -- could have repurchased EROS now. I am not worried about EROS going below 15 permanently -- 15 is a very strong support for it...
DeleteWhat did Draghi say today??? Why is $USD up so much again??? It really spoils the whole 1-year $USD chart, which no longer looks bearish. So much for my hopes about gold moving up strongly when $USD breaks below 94... It is encouraging, however, to see the miners up for a second day in a row -- the PM investors must be thinking something else...
ReplyDeleteI'm confused why anyone would think the $US should go lower?
DeleteFrom what I think I know, he's been calling for enhanced super QE?
DeleteShouldn't oil companies be forced to pay for new rainwater runoff treatment infrastructure to remove grease and oils deposited on roads from gasoline vehicles?
ReplyDeleteEROS - SOSDD, not sure what to think, down ain't up according to my entry price....
ReplyDeleteGE - Red, so suck on that. Smaller part of being big as opposed to bigger part of being small?
ReplyDeleteCP, USD should go lower because it has rallied from 80 to 100 in expectations of a steadily rising Fed funds rate. Now those expectations are receeding, and if the economy continues to deteriorate, we'll get QE instead.
ReplyDeleteGGN seems to agree with you David.
DeleteNOW is a great entry into EROS, after it ran all stops under 15...
ReplyDeleteFamous last words!
DeleteLoad the boat for an early Monday flip, maybe. Eventually that won't work anymore.
DeleteNRG - Another one of many stocks that just plain stink.
ReplyDeleteREXX - Might be low risk here, especially if David's right about $US? A weak $US would benefit export manufacturing thus a tailwind for improving natty demand?
ReplyDeleteEROS - Nice to read some explanation....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-23/eros-tanks-as-wells-fargo-analyst-questions-company-s-financials?cmpid=yhoo.headline
EROS- That's freaking unreal. I wish we had s a solid angle on it. Obviously it's getting run around by someone.
ReplyDeleteNEW POSTage...
Delete