Thursday, November 12, 2015

Running for the Sun....

CP- ENPH could be in real trouble. Market cap now is basically the same as a quarters worth of earnings. No 401K money can touch them and only one firm has a decent buy rating. I'd ask my buddy but he's probably really hurting here. I know he also had a good chunk of SUNE and FSLR. ...25M in cash. I bet they can break even with projected earnings of 70M. SEDG market share was mostly SUNE, SCTY, VSLR..bascially all the leasing plays that all say they are going to cash generation mode. I also suspect the ITC going away next year is getting priced in right now. I suspect it will remain in some form for private buyers are certainly with storage systems. That's ENPH take at least. Lots of talk about SUNE dropping it's bid to buy VSLR. Vey interesting and obviously damgerous sector.

143 comments:

  1. hanks Mark, I did notice the other day that utilities are offering to install various car charging stations, with atrings attached. My understanding those strings limit the ability of private owners to sell their excess back to the grid at reasonable profit (basically none).

    As far as electric vehicles are concerned I think they make sense and never understood why they weren't being used in the city for city commuting but the road maintenance taxes have always been obtained through gasoline sales so as e-cars become popular that tax base dwindles? Obviously some way of compensating must be worked out.

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  2. Arrived in Carlsbad today, but probably one of my worst days in the market this year.

    RYCEY got hammered as they warned and seem to be losing market share to GE and UTX and AEG also had a bad quarter and missed. At least HLC.TO had good earnings and was up. No way I sell into big down days like this, but maybe RYCEY should be dumped. Will have to do some more reading. I still like AEG.

    But at least the sun was shining and 70 degrees here, so way better than sitting back home!

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    1. Oh, and I got a 66 ouncer of Gentleman Jack on sale for $33 at Costco - would be around $95 back home in overtaxed Ontario, so that's $62 of guaranteed profit

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    2. AEG - Sep-24-15 Upgrade Goldman Neutral → Buy

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    3. Welcome to Carlsbad BB! Where are you staying? I have been working in an office along the coast in Carlsbad during the day now as I'm trying to get my new company off the ground. What are your plans for the week?

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  3. RUSL - This would be a higher low on a trend line assuming it holds, no?

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  4. OA - Seems to still be doing well. Space race killing it.

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  5. PCAR - Bridgewater added PCAR?
    Some stuff on Bridgewater:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-12/worlds-largest-hedge-fund-slashed-its-us-public-equity-holdings-31-third-quarter
    Some stuff on trucking and transportation:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-12/us-freight-%E2%80%9Cplummets%E2%80%9D-worst-october-2011

    WMT - I see there's a strike planned, perhaps this is the event where the stock is accumulated for the recovery? I dunno about this one, considering AMZN seems to have these retailers by the nads, throw in delivery and maybe groceries are possible as well?

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  6. I would love to know what Nests annual ssles/revenue are.

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  7. I would love to know what Nests annual ssles/revenue are.

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    1. For thermostat and smoke alarm sales? I googled it and saw Nest sales estimates of $150~$300M, probably useless info and seems really high to me. The big guy in thermostats is Johnson Controls I think?

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  8. EROS - Another new low. Looks like the shorts have it correct.
    Wonder how much exposure to US O&G "American" banks have?

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  9. Other than groceries, I buy 99% of my stuff online.

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  10. Assuming oil is returning as an import, that should mean natty has bottomed (unless alternative power takes over)?

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  11. NES is trading for .10 per share on original share count.

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    1. Are they still burning cash? Book (according to finviz) is less than zero.

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  12. I'll buy another 1/4 of QQQ at the close.

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  13. ANTM - Might be worth looking at here?

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  14. AMZN - I don't think I"ve ever seen this one drop, ever..... IBM should make "Watson" robots for MCD extruded hamburgers and WMT should go online thus address this $15/hr argument.

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  15. JNJ - Looks strong, huh? The dividend helps.

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  16. FCAU - Not sure a lower price can be justified.

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  17. GGN - Refuses to drop under $5, wonder if it's being defended and/or how long it can remain above this price? Kinda doubt it drops under but if it does, well then ..... Might drop down to a buying range?

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  18. PCRX - Getting some action, seems like. Gap up needs to fill, could just be making a run to the trend line.

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  19. RBA - Nov-13-15 07:00AM Ritchie Bros. sells US$50+ million of equipment and trucks at final Houston, TX auction of 2015 PR Newswire

    Wonder if the oil industry is being forced to tighten their belts and who might benefit by helping them cut some fat?

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  20. TOF,

    We are here until the 24th. We have friends coming in today until the 18th. Mainly we plan to just do tourist stuff and hiking. Things like the navy museum and zoo and gas light district in San Diego, walk down to Oceanside for lunch on the pier, hiking in Torrey Pines. The old Point Loma lighthouse is open Saturday. Sounds like there are some nice hikes into the mountains around here too. Might take a day trip up to LA and watch a tv show get made.

    Where are you working? Maybe we can stop by and get formally introduced.

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  21. CP,

    the Contra the Heard guy was on TV recently talking about AEG and had bought it last year and was saying he might add. He''s got a 15 year 20% annual return, so a good sign when he gets on board.

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    1. Are these insurance companies providing financing for commercial real estate? Was just wondering where all that capital has been coming from and it occurred to me could be insurance companies...

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  22. I just took a screen shot of my account in celebration of an up day! :)

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  23. BAC/GS/MS being sued by Virginia retirement system for peddling misrepresented MBS paper?

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  24. PMs - Just wrote a song about hyperinflation of the lungs, wanna hear it, here it goes...

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  25. XBI looks kind of bearish in the bigger picture, no? Can someone explain the opposite view to me? I see a potential descending triangle forming…XBI was up almost 100% from the period of October 14 to July 15 which in hindsight is probably a euphoric move up.

    Just trying to think through the implications here if this is the right side of the mountain.

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    1. Rarely is there ever a precise right answer in this business.

      Using your time frame is 90%, going back to say AUG 11 the longer term bottom is 355%. Fibonacci .50 on those time frames are 64.6 and 54.96. Recently we undercut the .50 to .382 zone of 58.37. These are some potential zones in which you could pick your spots.

      If you went high to low a retracement back to .50 is 74.78 which is a zone from here to there that may fit your bearish scenario. The market is imprecise and really all we can do is pick our spots and take our shot depending on our view,

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    2. XBI Long tern trendline comes in around 50 and from the Apr -Oct 14 lows comes in around 66 this line was undercut about 5-6 times in the last 15 weeks. Technically imo trend is intact but painful since July highs.

      FWIW

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  26. Markets continue to decline. If I'm in the La-Z-Boy, at what point does the 'noise' begin to bother me? I would say when the effect on my portfolio approaches the point where I'm giving back half of recent gains.

    (a) Recent gains in this case would be a +10% gain buying into emerging markets in late September.
    (b) My most recent entry into VEIEX (Vanguard Emerging Markets) was @ 22.65. It closed yesterday @ 21.80, or a -3.75% decline.
    (c) EEM is currently off -1.37%. Compared to EEM, the price swings in VEIEX tend to be less extreme (although not always the case).

    So I'm facing a decision point here (not an unusual situation to be in). Let me outline my decision-making process:

    (a) In general, I take losses quickly. I take them less quickly when using a 'buy-and-hold' approach.
    (b) My priority is capital preservation (or capital gains when I deem the risk is 'acceptable').
    (c) It's certainly possible we retest the August or September lows. I don't want to be holding if/when we do.

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  27. EROS - Not damaging my measly beat to hell whiskey-dented portfolio anymore, thankfully.

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  28. Folks, take a look at how SPY behaved during and after the 2011 pullback:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPY+Interactive#{"customRangeStart":1309503600,"customRangeEnd":1333263600,"range":"custom","allowChartStacking":true}

    We seem to be tracing, pretty much exactly, the same pattern. If so, then today might very well be the end of the pullback. Maybe a few more days at most, but it should end with a higher low. That will REALLY give confidence to everyone and allow SPY to surge to new highs.

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    1. As Jeff Saut likes to say "Never on a Friday" as far as bottoms go

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  29. Terrorist attacks in Paris most likely the cause for further drops in S&P futures

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  30. My account closed up 1.87%, what sell-off? A bud bought RBS at close.
    GUKYF - Does this chart look like it's going lower?
    OA - Looks like a good one as/if the lower trend line is reached. (~$72?) Space Race is in full swing (All kinds of things to spend tax money on as opposed to paying teachers pensions).

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  31. JNK - Gonna fill the open gap, it seems.

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  32. Speaking of vacations, we fly to Vancouver every 2-3 years. Can anyone think of a reason NOT to invest let's say $10,000 USD in the CAD at the current exchange rate?

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    1. Hard to see the CDN $ getting much worse than it is now. I think $1.35 to the US$ is the absolute worse case, so today is pretty good - I'd take. I know I'm not keen on buying US$ at current rates.

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    2. I'd take it too. We used to go skiing there every year when rate was about .65 to .67., what's not to like? Probably have a few hundred around along with some Euro and can you believe this Greek Drachma, bring it back.

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  33. ENPH - Dang, I knew this would jump first thing this morning.
    FCAU - Getting cheap(er)?

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  34. XYL and WOR have done really well.
    I hear there's a shortage of propane storage tanks.

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  35. Am I wrong, thinking opioid addiction was flat and falling up until the US government entered Afghanistan?

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  36. I bought GDDY today at $31.86. Not the cheapest stock but I love their business model. I like that they are basically the gateway for registering your domain (have about 20% of world's domains if memory serves me right) and can offer a lot of add-on services like web hosting, web design, search engine marketing, office 365, etc, all of which are recurring revenue business models. It’s a great business.

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  37. Grabbed some BIIB too today at $279.99. Very unloved and beaten up. Valuation is reasonable now. Reminds me a lot of GOOGL/PCLN back in January.

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  38. I got stopped out of HLX and BTE last week, but still have some WTI. Looking at the 3-month daily chart of HLX, it might have made a 3rd higher low last week. If it rises above the previous highs at $6.6 this week, it will be good to go. So I just placed a buy stop limit order on it at $6.6/$6.7.

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  39. I grabbed some more EROS on Friday at $7.60, and I just placed a sell limit order for those shares at $13, in case it makes a huge spike up tomorrow, after it announces its earnings. Some shorts have already panicked earlier today at a mere thought of EROS announcing regular decent earnings...

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  40. 'Hanging in there' appears to have been the right decision. DJIA +223 points, SPX +1.38%, EEM (emerging markets) +1.85%, VWO (Vanguard EM) +2.11%, EWZ (Brazil) +3%, PBR (Petrobras) +9.4%, FXI (China 'H' Shares) +1.67%, CAF (China 'A' Shares) +2.19%.

    To be honest, I can't claim any 'credit' based on timing skills. The decision to stay put on Friday came down to a 50/50 vote, and the 'swing vote' was based on the advisability of 'doing nothing' when unable to clearly justify making any changes.

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  41. Funny, david, I just bought EROS too at exactly the same price. I'm going to most likely close it before the end of the day though. Tiger Global announced a stake in them but it looks like it was at $27 and they probably already closed the position. My bet is the shorts are scared though.

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    1. This is Exhibit A of a scared short. I'm only playing on sentiment here:
      https://twitter.com/mugatushair

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    2. Did you close it? If not, then you might want to wait for the morning spike up tomorrow...

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    3. I sure did. Took a small loss.

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    4. I actually was about to sell at $7.73 but got a call and came back to it closing at $7.49 which is what I sold at

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    5. I have a feeling that EROS made only minor transgressions -- just the regular nepotism, coupled with some optimistic accounting. But the firm IS doing business and it IS growing. Investors, on the other hand, are probably following the rule: "panic first, think later" and are waiting for complete clarity before jumping back in.

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    6. Hope you're right man. I typically stick by the rule "once bitten, twice shy" with stocks, for better or worse.

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  42. I'm a sucker that's for sure. Bought 1K at 7.80 for tomorrow's fireworks show. Do we know what time?

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    1. Before the market opens, according to a news release at erosplc.com

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    2. Before the market opens, according to a news release at erosplc.com

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  43. PIR. I'm not surprised, but wow.

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    1. I was thinking about this and the retail and restaurant stocks and remembered how stocks like PIR, CAKE, WFM, JWN all started trading down well in advance of the market peak in 2007. Might not be the same situation because some of these were overvalued recently, but something to consider.

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  44. Mark - MITK has been picking up. Does your brother still own it?

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    1. Nope. He pretty much followed me on that trade if I remember correctly

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  45. NUAN - Siri's voice recognition software is provided by NUAN, FYI....

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  46. ENPH analyst day today in NY at 9:30.

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    1. It's funny. I'm watching the presentation and watching the stock trade.

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  47. AMZN seems to be saying they'll buy all the solar electricity power utilities can produce.

    Nov-16-15 07:55AM Dominion Acquires Solar Energy Project on Virginia's Eastern Shore PR Newswire

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  48. Retail - I happen to believe AMZN is going to continue roasting these guys. OR, retail sales just plain suck and will continue sucking, AMZN is diversifying?

    Real Estate...
    A bud of mine in DC area says don't believe the real estate hype, sales aren't off the hook he claims it's slow. I dunno if he's right or not but I do respect his opinions, he's been around the block hundreds of times.

    VAR - Headquartered in Palo Alto campus next door to HPQ campus.... Do you guys think a $2M garage in Palo Alto is justifiable? These two campus' are pretty large. SIVB (see channel) is the bank to watch, I'd think?

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  49. Guess the editor was asleep when naming this article...

    Soft Dick's report takes down ELY and SPWH

    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2935226-soft-dicks-report-takes-down-ely-and-spwh

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    1. Reminds me of my knee operation for some reason. The nurses were quite excited, FWIW.

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    2. http://www.franktalk.org/phpBB3/download/file.php?id=1193&sid=0902edac5441978b5369b6f69e2375c4

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  50. NUAN - Do you guys own/use smart phones?

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  51. CSV - Is the coming decade likely to be positive?

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  52. XON - Wow man, talk about mixed signals... Insiders have stepped up to the plate and I've been watching... Maybe it looks expensive but what about growth?

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  53. FLIR - Well, I was trying to keep an eye on this one.

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  54. EMLP/SPH - "Why is propane demand not growing?"
    I dunno about that! There's a shortage of propane storage tanks in Shenandoah Valley, according to what I'm hearing through the grapevine.

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  55. ENPH - Running from the Sun?
    Speaking of running, according to my quick calc, maybe I'm wrong but 625 million chickens are required?
    http://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/americans-eat-1-25-billion-chicken-wings-super-bowl-2/

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  56. AEG - Broker note: Aegon: Risk - reward not attractive enough yet as risks are increasing November 16, 2015

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  57. Jaguar - Largest vehicle registration growth in capital beltway area.

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  58. FLY - I guess they loaded the boat during the response? "Nov-13-15 Downgrade JP Morgan Neutral → Underweight"

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  59. Great exit on EROS, Mark! You can now reload pretty much at the same price as you entered it. :)

    I am going on the assumption that the decline after the early morning jump is due to investors who don't want to worry about EROS taking their last opportunity to exit it. After that, all weak hands will be out, and the train can start moving northbound. Of course, the short sellers will try to contest today's earnings, but if the company provides good audit results for the earnings (it mentioned that an audit is happening now), then short sellers will eventually lose.

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  60. IPHS - Add this one to the list of stocks that have been crashing for the better part of a year or more, just another example of why and how employment can be performing so damn great? This baffles me.
    URBN - Pizza stain on their shirt.

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  61. ZINC - Will someone please ring a bell when this finally bottoms? Thanks. Sure looks like the suspicious hype a few months ago was met with selling into the strength.

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  62. Damn, there is going to be a great bottom here somewhere in solar. Might be way lower though.

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    1. Who knows how low they can go. Just need to keep an eye on them for basing. I still have zero trust in this market.

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  63. Interesting article.

    http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/11/17/to-be-great-you-must-first-learn-to-be-good/

    today's likes:

    TWTR, IEP, TASR XOM

    Solar, another crushed sector, like TOF says look for basing, but most likely it will spike 30% in a day or two and be hard to catch intelligently. But in that vain you have to think that we are getting in late innings to a Templeton approach of of buying a basket and waiting 5 plus years.

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    1. Bases take a while to form and the ones with the longer bases generally explode the highest. Look at BITA or NOAH back in 2012 as good examples. YRCW was another one - it based for an entire year before exploding 5x higher in a couple of months. I've found my biggest winners waiting for bases to form.

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    2. An example right now of a good base is TBT. Unfortunately its a leveraged ETF

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    3. A lot of the regional bank stocks are potentially breaking out of long bases - take a look at FUNC and BOCH for good examples. The financial stocks are positioned to break out fundamentally assuming rates do continue to rise.

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  64. I'll go out on a limb and target DJIA 18,500 before year end. Also optimistic we see DJIA 18,000 before the end of November.

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  65. TWTR, hit my bid, small will add if it works, last sold at 37.12 so at least saved 30%.

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  66. QCOM - Getting beat up good, you guys following the story? I haven't investigated yet.

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  67. Those who WANTED to be out of EROS took yesterday's jump as the last chance to exit. Now we are getting an influx of new buyers, who see a company with a great growth story trading at an obscenely low P/E. I think the short sellers are slowly exiting as well, before their nice profits disappear...

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    1. Tell this to Mark. :) Unlike him, I did not have the patience to hold off on buying EROS until 1 day before the earnings (even though I was sure that EROS would jump on earnings) and instead started buying it WAY earlier. My current cost basis is $9.80... But then, with my longer-term view of EROS, I may have the patience to hold it until it rises into the teens...

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  68. Following the release of minutes from the November Fed meeting around 11 am (pst), we saw the usual 'head fake' (in this case, a brief dip) prior to a resumption of today's across-the-board rally in stocks and bonds. DJIA +212 points, SPX +1.4%, EEM (emerging markets) +0.81%, EWZ (Brazil) +2.62%, FXI (China 'H' Shares) +0.5% (significant in the face of overnight declines in Shanghai/Shenzhen), FCX (Freeport McMoran) +3.9%, PBR (Petrobras) +4.12%. Even bonds (TLT +0.39%), miners (GDX +2.87%), and oil (USO +0.7%) are green.

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  69. I guess we should get short here....

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  70. It is pretty exciting to have some cash on hand when a great bottoming process is happening in energy stocks. Take a look at the 6-month charts of BCEI and WTI -- the bottom of the "bowl" seems to have past and higher lows have been recorded for 2-3 months now. Such a crash of a MAJOR sector followed by a clear bottoming occurs once in many years, and this is the kind of chance an investor should be waiting for. He can be on vacation for 5 years and then catch this one single pattern to make a nice 5-year compounded return... I added to my WTI position at the end of last week, and today I placed a buy order for some January 2017 BCEI calls (mid way between bid and ask), but nobody wanted to sell me those calls. Hopefully, we'll get a small pullback before this sector finally explodes higher, and I'll have a long position in both WTI and BCEI on the way up.

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  71. I bought back into BITA today. trades at 14x EPS next year and EPS is very depressed given their current spending on advertising. Trades at almost 1/3 the price to sales of ATHM and yet BITA has a major partnership with JD and Tencent (TCEHY) and also has 1/3 of market cap in cash.

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  72. AA baupost took a 8.4% position.

    I swapped XOM for PXD during the day.

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  73. Finally spoke to one of my ENPH buddies. Got a margin call and had to liquidate. He also owes me some money for some work I did months ago at his house as a favor and can't pay. I told him not to worry about it. So sad.

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    1. Incredible, I don't know what to say. BTW, if you were doing him a favor then what's up with him owing you money? Sheesh, so if you do me a favor then I have to pay you, is that right? Do you need me to do you any favors, lol? :)

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    2. That sucks man. Sorry to hear that. Was he all in?

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  74. NAV/PCAR - I dunno, these don't seem to be moving appreciably lower... Crater mode has run it's course?

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  75. ENPH - Mark, give me a break man, what the heck is up with this watching and waiting this trades like EYES.

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  76. "Warmest October since 1880, and not by a small margin"
    Still solar stinks, incredible and MUST reverse. Or there's something I'm missing...

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    1. What's the deal with solar reversing? FSLR has been flat for 3 years, so why should it reverse? If you want to play a reversal, look at oil stocks, gold miners, or even FCX for that matter.

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    2. The fear of global warming we hear about on a daily basis, I guess.

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  77. The pullback in oil stocks that I asked for yesterday took place without delay, and so now I am a proud owner of 5 January 2017 $5 calls on BCEI, purchased at $4.50.

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  78. EROS - Well, that was a good day. More to come?

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    1. I was SOOOO close to biting on this POS yesterday!

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    2. I browsed that Alpha Exposure guy's stuff and he's pretty convincing.

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  79. INTU - I'd NEVER buy tax prep software, would you?

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  80. YELP - On it's way to filling that gap down?

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  81. BAC - BAC is mentioned as an underwriter, not sure what all this means though?
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/20/veritas-ma-carlyle-group-debt-idUSL8N13D3Z620151120

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