I have to think WY keeps going, but I want a pullback, lol! CSV What do you think of this one? I think it can't lose, given the boomers are aging. Debt is too much for me? Again, I'm expecting a scary pullback market wide, anyway.
Probably right, but it's the type of stuff you want to read before a real bottom is in. We need a long period of underinvestment in mines.
"Fed hike could knock gold price down to $1,000/oz., Gold Fields CEO says A Fed interest rate hike in December could knock back the price of gold to ~$1,000/oz., Gold Fields (GFI -3.1%) CEO Nick Holland tells Creamer Media after the company's share price soared 29% in Johannesburg for its best single day of trading since 1999.The uncertainty around a rate increase has played havoc with the gold price in recent weeks, but Holland says long-term fundamentals for gold remain positive, based on projections of inadequate supply; “It doesn’t matter what we do now as an industry, a supply fall-off is inevitable," the CEO says."Is it three years of pain, four years, five years? We don’t know, but we’re in a long-term business and we can’t take decisions for one year,” Holland said after GFI reported improved Q3 earnings and higher net cash flow to cut net debt to 1.4x EBITDA."
I really believe the best investment for the next couple of years will be financials. They are half the market multiple on p/e, p/b and half the multiples they traded at prior to the financial crisis. Plus you have the catalyst of rising rates which will help their margins and get people excited about them and shrink this valuation gap as earnings improve - a double win.
You can buy a large bank, some regionals or insurer (most P&C insurers aren't cheap, but the rest are), all look good.
Mark, instead of looking for ideas, you might want to wait until ideas jump it you by themselves. This might happen simply because prices for the stuff you are monitoring drop low enough to become attractive.
The problem with FCX is that its chart shows no signs of bottoming. On the other hand, charts for oil stocks show a clear bottom, or at least a mid-term respite from the selling pressure. I just purchased some shares of BTE at $4.05.
Looking for some ideas....
ReplyDeletePACB- Where the F were you guys a month ago?
ReplyDeleteI mentioned it a few times! :)
DeleteHolding a big chunk of SPY is boring.
ReplyDeleteBut not a bad strategy this year!
DeleteI wish some of you had joined me in WY. It's out performing the SPY 3-1 so far.
ReplyDeleteI have to think WY keeps going, but I want a pullback, lol!
DeleteCSV What do you think of this one? I think it can't lose, given the boomers are aging. Debt is too much for me? Again, I'm expecting a scary pullback market wide, anyway.
Probably right, but it's the type of stuff you want to read before a real bottom is in. We need a long period of underinvestment in mines.
ReplyDelete"Fed hike could knock gold price down to $1,000/oz., Gold Fields CEO says
A Fed interest rate hike in December could knock back the price of gold to ~$1,000/oz., Gold Fields (GFI -3.1%) CEO Nick Holland tells Creamer Media after the company's share price soared 29% in Johannesburg for its best single day of trading since 1999.The uncertainty around a rate increase has played havoc with the gold price in recent weeks, but Holland says long-term fundamentals for gold remain positive, based on projections of inadequate supply; “It doesn’t matter what we do now as an industry, a supply fall-off is inevitable," the CEO says."Is it three years of pain, four years, five years? We don’t know, but we’re in a long-term business and we can’t take decisions for one year,” Holland said after GFI reported improved Q3 earnings and higher net cash flow to cut net debt to 1.4x EBITDA."
Mark,
ReplyDeleteI really believe the best investment for the next couple of years will be financials. They are half the market multiple on p/e, p/b and half the multiples they traded at prior to the financial crisis. Plus you have the catalyst of rising rates which will help their margins and get people excited about them and shrink this valuation gap as earnings improve - a double win.
You can buy a large bank, some regionals or insurer (most P&C insurers aren't cheap, but the rest are), all look good.
I'm wonder which of these financials are over-exposed to energy x-rays?
DeleteI have all banks at the moment. Mostly cash though.
DeleteMark, instead of looking for ideas, you might want to wait until ideas jump it you by themselves. This might happen simply because prices for the stuff you are monitoring drop low enough to become attractive.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, FCX is retesting now its late-August low, which also happens to be its 2008 low. Do you find such a price as attractive enough? :)
DeleteThe problem with FCX is that its chart shows no signs of bottoming. On the other hand, charts for oil stocks show a clear bottom, or at least a mid-term respite from the selling pressure. I just purchased some shares of BTE at $4.05.
Delete$US could take another leg upward? China's bad news isn't completely baked in yet? I dunno, these are guesses, BABA sure seems to be kicking it.
DeleteCHK is racing SUNE down the s__t hole. Energy debt might be the next scary event?
DeleteI have a feeling, which doesn't mean anything, that we haven't seen the lows in oil stocks.
DeleteI don't think it's smart to touch FCX.
ReplyDeletenew pistola
ReplyDelete