Thursday, December 3, 2015

12/3/15 The Morning After

Janet Yellen made hawkish comments yesterday re a rate hike later this month, and the usual suspects sold off.  The DJIA pulled back -150 points on Wednesday, and prices of both oil and gold plunged.  However, there were a few positive divergences (both CAF [China 'A' Shares] and EWZ (Brazil) closed up over 2%), which extended into overnight trading in Asia.


The Shanghai Composite has now recouped nearly all of last Friday's decline.  Brazil's iBovespa is rallying hard on news that a move to impeach President Dilma Rousseff is underway.  Oil and gold are up this morning, while bonds are selling off.  The DJIA if off another -80 points in early trading, but I suspect the decline will be 'bought.'

68 comments:

  1. Bet FCAU paid a good price to get these Star Wars adds:

    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6bK2yHquQjqI9hV9oN8T1hgLAImQy0zK&app=desktop

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  2. 35 points off the SPX, what's that tell you? To me it means each attempt at 2100 has been the short entry.

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    Replies
    1. I have less money than I did yesterday.

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  3. I was wrong about investors buying the morning dip. They appear to have instead sold the dip! The DJIA is off -281 points (-1.5%) heading into the close. The positive divergences remain-> USO (oil) +2.28%, GDX (miners) +2.65%, CAF (China 'A' Shares) -0.41%, EWZ (Brazil) +3.2%, PBR (Petrobras) +3.33%, EEM/VWO (emerging markets) -0.56%/-0.38%.

    However, I'm still fairly confident today's declines are a buying opp.

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  4. Dicker bought KMI yesterday $3 higher than now.

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    1. Dicker is no smarter than you or I and I've seen alot of his picks tank.

      I own KMI and am down -38% from 21 OCT, I'm so tempted to double down but, how do I know it's not another SUNE?

      The pipeline structure clearly has value and cannot be duplicated, a moat?, it has to be the debt and softness in commodities (goproners) that killing this.

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    2. They're gonna change the world! :)

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  5. I'm crawling out from under the desk now....

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  6. This is what I heard a month or so ago, also heard in Denver the train yards were full of locomotives and the witness claimed he'd never seen do many locomotives parked there before.:
    "Dec-03-15 01:28PM Heavy-Duty Truck Orders Crashed 60% Last Month, Neutral Ratings Follow -5.13%"

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  7. I suspect today's pullback will end up being a headfake and we move higher in the next couple days. People will think about this some more and realize that the fact the EU and Fed are tightening/not loosening more reflects confidence in the economy which is actually a good thing in the long run.

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    1. I'm still wondering how many more times the market sells off on this news of less stimulation. The piece I can't place are the employment reports and how they fit into a slowing economy. Wage inflation might weigh on corporate profits, assuming it does happen so perhaps that's the real story we're not reading about?

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  8. SNE - Back to the lower trend line and volume is going up.

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  9. The average travel budget for each foreign attendee of the Paris climate conference added 2 tons of carbon to the environment?

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  10. Avago - Ok so now it's confirmed BRCM's WIFI is a good seller, and there's some other devices involved as well it appears. Avagp ahd no trouble closing the deal earlier this month now we have confirmation of why that was.

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  11. SIVB - Suffering from tech culling season?

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  12. PEIX - Looks like a bull flag to me, whatever happened to biofuel volkswagens, those don't need pollution control systems do they or does bio-nox count??

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  13. Tele- I'll see if MOG has any insight into KMI or the business model. I can't imagine given the capital required there many players just dying to get in.

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  14. Man, I must really look like shit....

    Sometimes when it rains or is too windy I don't like to ride my bike, it's way to cold. So tonight I went for a long 'fast' walk. On the way back as I was passing the local home assistance center a car slowed down and the guy driving asked if I wanted a 'warn coat' for the night...

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    1. No, more likely you live in an interesting neighborhood?

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    2. Ha ha - just like asking the fat girl when her baby is due

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  15. Replies
    1. Oh man!! I wonder if that totally sunk our buddy???

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  16. "Amazing" employment report. Hourly compensation increase is fastest rate since 2000

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  17. I guess its a byproduct of a flat year, but the market sure has been boring the last while. Maybe things start getting more interesting after the fed announcement, or maybe it changes in 2016 - has to sometime.

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  18. JAZZ - Out at $142.25 on my $128 entry, looks headed down.

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  19. WTIC - Looks like ISIS oil is still flowing, now we need Iranian oil too so they can finance their military b/c our defense contractors need to increase their orders to keep the machine humming.

    As opposed to slapping handcuffs on anyone who buys terrorist oil.

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  20. I'm pretty sure the unfolding middle east drama is all about keeping the oil flowing. Why else would the US/Europe accept purchasing oil from terrorists?

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  21. BKCC - Proof having access to insider information can be a great business?

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  22. Mark, why didn't you ask that guy if you could borrow $10 for something to eat?

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  23. HTHIY - Thinking of buying this one on the premise Japan won't allow humgo industrial companies to go without lucrative government contracts. Also, this company is large enough to take on the likes of GE, the company they stole a great majority of their technology from.

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  24. Looks like today Dhragi must be back in there speed-buying eurotrash debt. Wonder what happens when/if he finally runs out of ammo?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-25/ecb-says-qe-program-to-be-suspended-over-december-holiday-period

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  25. 2nd_ave, you were spot on about yesterday being a buying opportunity! Traders were scared shitless, VIX was spiking, I was getting worried about my January VXX puts, but you saw right through that! :)

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  26. EYES - Up 16% or something like that depending on when you look, proof it's nothing less than a POS!

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    Replies
    1. Must be Martin Krackhead's buying the company!!! ?

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  27. It is pretty amazing to see that with the current headline "Dow up 350: Stocks surge as hike seems set", gold is up so much. If gold traders are not scared of the rate hike anymore, then NOW is the time to buy gold, especially considering the fact that COMEX speculators have closed almost all their long positions now:

    http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=GCG16&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=150&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29%3BCOTDLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%2C16750848%29&chartindicator_3_code=COTLC&chartindicator_3_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_3_param_1=26112&chartindicator_3_param_2=153&chartindicator_4_code=COTDLC&chartindicator_4_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_4_param_1=26112&chartindicator_4_param_2=153&chartindicator_4_param_3=16750848&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

    I just purchased 10 contracts of January 2017 $13 calls on GDX at $3.50.

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  28. Anybody find apartment crime scene souvenirs on ebaby yet?

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  29. Sold another small portion of insurer ORI - has had a good run the last couple of months and position was getting too large relative to other stocks which are cheaper. Just risk / position management and probably my 7th largest holding still. Think people continue to like these kinds of stocks as has a 4% yield, increased for 30 years in a row, and cheaper than traditional comparable companies.

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    1. Moved the proceeds to CDN$. I do think the US$ is more likely to go down than up from here and it is a good time to start buying assets in other countries like Canada or Europe and most other markets. If we do get a flat or low return US market for the next 10 years like some are talking, most other markets are cheaper on valuation and have a better chance of beating the US, plus getting a kicker with the other currencies moving back up some.

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    2. Good job, that one shook me out and left me behind. Inverse of BXE

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  30. KMI, the only positive I can find today is that volume is running 7x's average, perhaps so capitulation.

    In the last 2 months I had three stocks do what KMI is doing now to me now and I was able to get out of them with minimal damage, but I feel KMI is not going to let the longs out. This really hammers home the idea of cutting losses. The hard part is that all three you kinda of wake up and they are down 17 or 20% and you wait to try to get out at better prices and the next thing you know your down 50%.

    One weird environment or I'm the worst stockpicker ever. I'm seriously considering only index buy and sells next year.

    Ah that felt like an enema.

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    1. Was a tough year to be a stock picker - lot's of reports out there about it is just a a slect group of stocks carrying the market this year and the average stock is down, eg. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b73d74c6-938c-11e5-b190-291e94b77c8f.html#axzz3tIVPqGgc

      This will change, I think, as we go into 2016 or maybe in the March/April timeframe, which is when trends often end. Would not be surprised if 2016 is a down year dragged down by many of these same high-flying, expensive, large caps, but the average stock picker does better and makes money.

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    2. I have a friend who's been able to buy his way out of his bad picks lol, don't know the detail of how he's doing that.

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  31. BB- I'm sorry for keep asking this, but when does the KCLI thing happen? Will it just dissapear from my account with a cash transfer?

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  32. Baystreet continuous stream of unfounded and ridiculous claims to make their moms proud. I don't know how these dolts can look themselves in the mirror...

    "it is the small-cap players with the leading next generation tech--such as MEEC--who stand to make the most striking gains."

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  33. Heroin is made from Opium and the CIA brings it into the US and globally (IMO)

    http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/13/world/asia/afghanistan-opium-cultivation

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    Replies
    1. How good (from a quality perspective) is CIA heroin?
      http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/economist-explains-19

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    2. Is global warming responsible for the CIA's increased opium harvest?
      http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-spoils-of-war-afghanistan-s-multibillion-dollar-heroin-trade/91

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  34. While crude oil is being smuggled by ISIS terrorists through Turkey, opium is filling the coffers of the Taliban.

    "Since the US led invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001, the Golden Crescent opium trade has soared. According to the US media, this lucrative contraband is protected by Osama, the Taliban, not to mention, of course, the regional warlords, in defiance of the “international community”.

    The heroin business is said to be “filling the coffers of the Taliban”. In the words of the US State Department:

    “Opium is a source of literally billions of dollars to extremist and criminal groups… [C]utting down the opium supply is central to establishing a secure and stable democracy, as well as winning the global war on terrorism,” (Statement of Assistant Secretary of State Robert Charles. Congressional Hearing, 1 April 2004)"

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  35. Mark, vote is Dec 15th. The company plans to execute the transaction immediately after this, so, depending on your broker, you will see the shares gone and the cash in your account as early as the 17th or as late as say the 22nd. Most likely it will be 17th or 18th.

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  36. I sorta thought the oil route wasn't quite done. JONE is among the price leaders.

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  37. Energy stocks seem to be overdoing it on the downside in reaction to the price decline in oil. This could be some the tax loss selling as people getting fed up and looking to dump losers for tax purposes.

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    1. "Beijing shrouded in heavy smog."

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    2. Tons of debt in the oil sector. What happens if/when/as that blows up? Nice to see US government Iraqi truck convoys back on the road though.

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  38. Internet problems here. Tried to add to KMI at the open but don't have a good enough connection...let's see if that was a blessing!

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  39. EVA - must be good news for biofuels, the next big thing to replace carbon fuels.

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  40. At least Saudi Arabia will be back on track once these junk US oil companies go belly-up. But how do we play Saudi Arabia long?

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  41. 2069 is where Robot went long Friday....

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  42. I dunno but looks sorta like refiners are rolling over. Too much finished product in the pipeline, backing up?

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