http://newsroom.bankofamerica.com/press-releases/economic-and-industry-outlooks/bofa-merrill-lynch-fund-manager-survey-finds-invest-13
The late September Alibaba Put was good for a +10% rally in emerging markets indexes. The latest BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Survey provides another sentiment indicator that may send Emerging Markets + commodities higher in December.
The above news release notes that 'aggressive underweights on commodities and Global Emerging Markets are maintained.' Cobbling together pieces of the actual report from the blogosphere, it looks as if current allocations to Emerging Markets (at -31% underweight) are at levels comparable to early 2014. I recall watching a panic selloff in EEM during a spring break flight from SFO to Vancouver in March 2014 (subsequent to a relentless decline the previous December/January) that sparked a 6-month rally in the sector.
Other (non-contrarian) 'positives' in the above report:
(a) 80% of panelists expect a rate increase in December. Thus an actual hike is likely priced in.
(b) 'Concerns over a slowdown in China [have abated].' This tells me that the 'fog of fear' has lifted from the EM landscape. We will still see declines, but they're less likely to be tinged with panic.
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For SolarEdge Technologies Inc., ties with Elon Musk are no longer something to brag about.
The Silicon Valley billionaire’s SolarCity Corp. is the biggest buyer of its components for photovoltaic systems. That turned SolarEdge into a darling of investors until its top client announced it would scale back installations of panels. Shares of the Israeli company that had soared as high as $42 are back down at $18, the price of their March trading debut in New York.
The broader concern is whether the solar industry can live without government support. The expiration of U.S. tax credits for the renewable energy source at the end of 2016 sparked a selloff that has engulfed SolarEdge, whose executives are now trying to assure shareholders that the company will continue to grow regardless of SolarCity’s troubles and subsidies.
“There is a lot of uncertainty in the market, and bigger events are throwing shade on what we see here,” SolarEdge’s chief financial officer, Ronen Faier told investors at a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. conference in New York last week. “What we see in the market is disconnected from our performance as a company.”
Beating Forecasts
He has a point.
SolarEdge beat profit and sales estimates for each of the past two quarters. Revenue is forecast to grow 49 percent to $483 million in 2016, according to the average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. It raised $126 million in March, the biggest initial public offering out of Israel this year.
Many Wall Street analysts back the company: seven out of eight recommend buying the stock, which they forecast will rally 77 percent in the next year.
Still, even those who are bullish on the company’s long-term prospects say turmoil in the solar industry is suppressing the shares. The Russell 1000 Energy Index has lost 17 percent this year, while SolarCity has plunged 46 percent. SolarEdge, based in Herziliya Pituach, Israel, is still keeping its head above water, up 1.5 percent year-to-date.
‘Subprime’ Curse
Back in August, hedge fund manager Jim Chanos dubbed SolarCity, whose chairman and biggest shareholder is Elon Musk, a “subprime” finance company. He said he’s betting against the stock because its business model of investing in rooftop solar and selling the output to homeowners under long-term contracts that could be broken is too risky.
Last week, the company got a $113 million cash infusion from Silver Lake and top executives. Jonathan Bass, a spokesman for SolarCity, declined to comment for this story. SolarEdge executives weren’t available for additional comment.
What SolarEdge investors want to see is the company diversify its customer base away from the U.S. and SolarCity. By focusing on Europe and Japan, the company is doing just that, Chief Executive Officer Guy Sella said in a conference call this month.
Other considerations: Cheap coal and gas prices indirectly hurt demand for solar energy and SolarEdge is also locked in a “price war” with Californian competitor Enphase Energy Inc., said Jeff Osborne, an analyst at Cowen & Co. in New York.
“It’s difficult to make an earnings model if you don’t know what prices will be,” he said.
Yet even in a climate of fierce rivalry and uncertainty, SolarEdge has the kind of technology that allows it to chip away at costs and offset the potential loss of subsidies, according to Michael Morosi, an analyst with Avondale Partners in Nashville.
“As the low-cost provider, they stand well positioned to gain share over time,” he said.
Wonder which companies and technologies Jim Chanos is positive on? I'm positive on OA for the progressing space race, all kinds of technologies are becoming more dependent on satellites?
DeleteIllegal logging tripled in Mexico.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.pressherald.com/2015/11/12/mexico-says-initial-reports-show-monarch-butterflies-are-on-rebound/
Mark, does Enphase donate to the milkweed program?
DeleteHmm, microinverters go on the roof as we know so doesn't that mean the AC has to be converted back to DC in the case of local storage? I guess utilities don't like buying electricity, considering they produce and sell it.
DeleteSPWR - Not sure what's causing this rout but it's probably b/c expectations were set too high and the projects are taking longer than anticipated? I wouldn't be surprised IF Democrats are re-elected this reverses dramatically?
ReplyDeleteSPWR could be a screaming buy here, no?
BLMN - Retested $16, now $17
ReplyDeleteSUNE - My broker has a $15 target on this one, WTF, are they lying, maybe behind the 8-ball or what?
ReplyDeleteCMD - Has been a double, will it continue?
ReplyDeleteBAC - $590B of cash, seriously?
ReplyDeleteAFK - What if all of rural Africa has electricity within 10 years? First I guess they have to rid the continent of repressive terrorism and probably corrupted government?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/10/electrify-africa-in-10-years-no-problem-says-head-of-afdb.html
US is paying Indonesia to expedite deforestation, thus creating both a health crisis AND the worlds worst localized climate crisis:
ReplyDelete"In 2010, the government attempted to put the brakes on deforestation by exchanging a two-year moratorium on new logging permits for $1 billion in aid from Norway and the United States. But according to Susan Minnemeyer, a forest analyst at the WRI, that policy appears to have had the "perverse impact of accelerating [deforestation], because those with permits felt that they had to take action quickly or they would no longer be able to."
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/10/indonesia-climate-change-fires-palm-oil-el-nino
Louisiana Just Voted to Give a Quarter of a Million People Health Care.
ReplyDeleteOPM of course.
DeleteHilary comes to the rescue of the middle class, I could vote for this definition!
ReplyDelete"Clinton pledged last week that, should she become president, she wouldn't allow taxes to be raised on households earning less than $250,000 per year"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3B0Y3LUqr1Q
ReplyDeleteAn excerpt from the latest outlook by EIA:
ReplyDelete"The current values of futures and options contracts continue to suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report). WTI futures contracts for February 2016 delivery, traded during the five-day period ending November 5, averaged $48/b, while implied volatility averaged 38%. These levels established the lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval for the market's expectations of monthly average WTI prices in February 2016 at $35/b and $66/b, respectively. The 95% confidence interval for market expectations widens over time, with lower and upper limits of $28/b and $95/b for prices in December 2016."
50% of Americans will do all their Christmas shopping at Amazon. So US retail is worth ~$200B maybe? Anyway, I guess this isn't good news for retail chains.
ReplyDelete"A rising rate backdrop is consensus
ReplyDeleteOf the investors surveyed, 90% believed short rates were going higher. That said, 50%
believed we would only see one or two 25bp rate hikes through 2016, while another
20% thought the Fed would raise rates by 25bp exactly three times. Only 10% of
respondents thought “lower for longer,” a stark contrast to 42% last year."
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/whitney-tilson-the-10-largest-stocks-in-the-sp-500-are-up-13-9-chart/
ReplyDeleteExplains a good part of the reason this year has been tough. But I feel pretty confident we are setting up for a reversal next year and will be quite easy to outperform the S&P 500.
If you want to play the year end rally if you think its coming, perhaps the best way to play it is thru XIV
ReplyDeleteSo finally you are on the same page with me regarding shorting the volatility! :)
Delete2016 - It'll be a nice change to have BXE rally to $10, finally. More like the Joke is on me.
ReplyDelete283 oil tanker trucks blown up in response to the ISIS Paris massacre. So in conclusion we discover $500B is spent annually on defense meanwhile terrorists are busily carrying oil to market in tanker trucks and loading up VLCC carriers on their way to Gulf Of Mexico Corpus Cristy, right? This is b/c we prefer to pay terrorists for oil as opposed to producing our own.
ReplyDeleteWow there are a lot of Regional banks that look good chart-wise.
ReplyDeleteTSN - Eat more BEEF! Posting here is like talking to a wall, why is that?
ReplyDeleteOh I get it, no response is a sure indicator an 80% haircut is unlikely.
DeleteBLOOM - So California sets the green CO2 emission standard based on the capability of this technology, thus qualifying this company for subsidies. There's something special going on with this decision....
ReplyDeleteISIS - Uses TOR, known as the Dark Web. Thus, NSA doesn't monitor this, nor does Pentagon, with our $500B they spend annually?
ReplyDeleteDC Police chief suggests citizens should try to "take down" a terrorist and stop him from executing victims if possible. Also, DC wants to limit or eliminate arms and ammunition for self-defense.
ReplyDeleteBAH - Which of you guys picked this one at the bottom, as opposed to the top?
ReplyDeleteOPM, I know, I know, but damn Ackman is in there buying more VRX.
ReplyDeleteSuch a political hot potato - anything could happen.
DeleteSee PAH instead, another Ackman POS that might be less risky?
DeleteMaybe. Personally, I think the big hedge fund guys get too much press these days and generally avoid their stocks. Hedge funds in general underperform the market too.
DeleteAgree for the most part except that PAH is beat down thus a potential subject for some kind of scalp?
DeleteCaptain Jack Live, Billy Joel 1976
ReplyDeletestarts 3 minutes in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XczUacW9yBc
I suppose jack is smack.
DeleteSeems like it, or might be a pusher?
DeleteTurkey shoots down Russian jet for some geo-poltics.
ReplyDeletePXD working...
DeleteX price target 3 at BAML.
ReplyDeleteQCOM was just placed on US1 list, gonna go up, up, up or clients looking for exits? I dunno but it's pretty beat up already. I'll take a look at the report and see if something jumps out.
DeleteOh I see, INTC has been squeezing these guys much the same way they skewered AMD and a couple others. This goes back to Israel somehow but I never figured it out exactly.
DeleteSo Russian aircraft are vulnerable to primitive Turkish missiles, hmm.... Brings up the old question of if Russia attacked Turkey from the rear, would Greece help? :O
ReplyDeleteThat's so funny!!!
DeleteYou have real talent, CP!
DeleteTASR won a major contract in London today
ReplyDeleteShocking! :) No surprise, really. Oh, for body cameras, that's interesting to hear b/c many US police forces say these devices aren't useful. Wonder if they're gonna remain profitable... I was thinking about FLIR a couple days ago, these guys have some military technology and that's right in line with what police forces seem to be acquiring. Wow, I see it did pop!
DeleteFLIR makes those systems that can see through walls and buildings, good for SWAT teams searching out those white extremist terrorist boys hiding out?
DeleteYeah I think it's interesting that Europe is adopting this technology. With ISIS becoming a factor in Europe it could be a nice market for them.
DeleteThis could be the savior of Moors Law?
ReplyDeletehttp://yournewswire.com/scientists-create-worlds-first-plant-that-feeds-on-electricity/
VLKAY - Well, it does look like a bull flag on weekly chart but only one leg down just doesn't seem right, that should've been a 3-legger IMO.
ReplyDeleteRussia only flatted tires and chipped paint on those 500 oil tankers, thus ISIS oil is still gushing towards US Gulf refineries, right?
ReplyDeleteI'm kind of surprised that FB hasn't bought out TWTR yet. Even if they bought out TWTR at $25 Billion (45% premium) it would be a 8% dilution. Would wipe out their competition in this space and make the company more diversified in the long run. Plus if they were to get into monetizing real time search I think it would provide nice upside.
ReplyDeleteI bought back in today at $25.28. I figure its a low risk trade here with a stop below $24.8.
DeleteClosed out TWTR at $25.52 at end of day.
DeleteI doubt the Pentagon would even know if Russian military aircraft veered into US air space by only 1/2 mile, let alone shoot it down?
ReplyDeleteBought some BITA at $27
ReplyDeleteSPWR - Why not buy this one?
ReplyDeleteI honestly have little trust for anything related to energy. Plus there's too much uncertainty with how things will shake out post govt credits expiring. Probably should be more risk tolerant but when you look at those nose diving charts with seemingly no support in place, lower lows / highs etc, patience is probably the best idea.
DeleteYou've got a point, wonder what happens to oil prices when half of imports are replaced with domestic production?
DeleteALLY - George Soros owns this?
ReplyDeleteLDOS - Hiring in DC region, guess they received some government contract? Looks like this news isn't exactly fresh off the press...
ReplyDeleteBAS - Seems like the news of a Turkey Shoot was out yesterday. or what?
ReplyDeleteRBS - Hmm........ Considering TCBI can rally in the face of an epic oil region bubble and collapse surely Scottish Whiskey money can get this puppy a small shot in the arm?
ReplyDeleteTurks take down a Russian warplane. Investors don't care, reversing a -100+ point selloff in the DJIA to post a +50-point gain as we head into the final hour. Extremely bullish.
ReplyDeleteWatch out Canada, Mexico is considering legalizing marijuana. Hang onto your tuques!
ReplyDeleteIf you want to be a merchant of any alcoholic beverages in Montgomery County Md., you must purchase them from the county. And, 7-11 type convenience stores cannot sell alcoholic beverages at all. This has been in effect for decades, I think.
ReplyDeleteRBS - I dunno man, I honestly have little trust for anything related to bankers and their shell game. Plus there's too much uncertainty with how things will shake out post govt punishment of shareholders. Probably should be more risk tolerant but when you look at the nose diving charts with seemingly no support in place, lower lows / highs etc, patience is probably the best idea.
ReplyDeleteDance to the music!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.radiogeorge.com/oldies/oldies18/Sly%20&%20The%20Family%20Stone-Dance%20To%20The%20Music.mp3
Stairway to Heaven, no?
http://kollegedaily.typepad.com/product_shop_nyc/files/spirit_04_taurus.mp3
""Russian Pilots Executed While Parachuting: Turkish Media"" War Crime?
ReplyDeleteBest thing to say assuming you actually plan to lose an election:
ReplyDeleteTrump On Waterboarding: "You Bet Your Ass I'd Approve It, Even If It Doesn't Work"
The coast is clear, these guys are always wrong...
ReplyDeleteCould Stocks Collapse 20%-50% in the Next Six Months? Posted by: Phoenix Capital...
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
ReplyDeleteS&P +1.50 / +0.07%
Level 2,086.25
Fair Value 2,086.50
Difference -0.25
Data as of 6:57pm ET
Nasdaq +4.00 / +0.09%
Level 4,670.00
Fair Value 4,667.92
Difference 2.08
Data as of 6:57pm ET
Dow +17,814.00 / +-45676.92%
Level 17,775.00
Data as of 6:56pm ET
Futures based on December 2015 contract.Fair value provided by IndexArb.com
I guess that bodes well for Wednesday.
COST - This Costco Rotisserie Chicken Salad stuff is the shiz...
ReplyDelete"Probably should be more risk tolerant but when you look at those nose diving charts with seemingly no support in place, lower lows / highs etc, patience is probably the best idea."
ReplyDeleteI don't know which charts your are looking at, Mike, but the charts I am looking at have a clear support and a sequence of higher lows from that support: WTI, BCEI look best, BTE and HLX look decent. I have already established positions in the first three, and I am keeping some cash on hand to buy more if old dips to $35, which is the low range of the EIA forecast for February, which I quoted earlier on this page. Now is the time to start scaling into the oil stocks...
David - I don't really consider a stock to be completely out of a long bear market (12-18 months at least) until after they have had a significant rally off the bottom that breaks up above the 200 DMA and then has a retest of the 200 DMA or even a break below with a higher low / base being formed. None of these charts have done that yet. If anything they just look like they're basing for lower lows to come. But I could be wrong and only time will tell. I do recall plenty of stocks having huge rallies in November/December 2008 prior to huge additional downturns. I remember ACAS in particular having a monster run. So it wouldn't shock me to see something like this happen in the energy space. In fact, I would study the chart of ACAS from late 2008 if you want to play this space now. Could be a nice parallel.
DeleteActually I want to take a close look at this tonight. This is the one area that will most likely have an explosive move as one of those tax loss type mives
DeleteI need to pull up my old energy watch list from a few weeks ago. Do you have it handy? I posted it here I think
DeleteActually I found them. So they are all basing. Wonder what the sentiment is for the dumb money stocktwits people. Using ACAS as an example it didn't rally until the last day of the year in 2008. It doubled in 3 days. And it based for 19 days...almost flatlined...before ripping. Couldn't be a nice template to consider
DeleteI wonder if the Saudi statement from a couple of days ago about stabilizing oil prices is significant - they are running huge deficits and need oil higher long term. Maybe this is the beginning of a more balanced market.
DeleteYeah I was thinking the same thing as I was going thru my thoughts on this
DeleteCMG - Following the railroads back up, huh?
ReplyDeleteI just bought something in Europe in EUR's. I was shocked at the rate.... .95ish
ReplyDeleteCP- Do you understand the EYES news?
ReplyDeleteLet's see, share price has been losing since the day I bought, I assume this means EYES hasn't and still won't receive Medicare funding?
DeleteHolly crap it's dead here.
ReplyDeleteEarly jump on the holiday weekend I guess. Seems pretty dead in the market in general.
DeleteUpgraded to Windows 10 today - took over an hour, but seems faster and more logical and to work better.
Delete....and there goes WY by 3-1 again... :)
ReplyDeletePanama Canal should finally be opening in the next few months, any winner-winner-chicken-dinner plays?
ReplyDeleteBRKR - Nice rally off the bottom too, I nearly bought this one except someone poopooed all over it (My broker, I think). So why can't TA (and some others) accomplish the same thing?
ReplyDeleteTA looks pretty good actually, no?.... hmm....
NBG - 27% off the 52 week low!
ReplyDeleteSorry, 19%
DeleteVRX - What happens when that Martin Krackhead guy discloses he bought some of this one?
ReplyDeleteI can never pronounce his last name, but you've now solved that problem!
DeleteBB- So it's worth upgrading to Windows 10? I'm usually skeptical, but since the upgrade is free of charge I'll consider it.
ReplyDeleteI put it on my Toshiba laptop, replacing 8, which I disliked and it runs super slow but like it otherwise.
DeleteMy desktop has 7, no way I would replace it with 10, but I heard that in 6-10 months MSFT is going to force replace it for you.
BB let us know what you think in a month or so.
BTW Happy Bird Day
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Gc4QTqslN4
Yeah, so far so good. It appears to be running more quickly so far, but just into it. The desktop mode is way better, new settings feature are good and the Cortana to search for files works very fast. Haven't run into any functionality issues or compatibility issues either.
DeleteCVEO - Who will house Syrian refugees?
ReplyDeleteYINN - Good price, or has some kind of correction begun?
ReplyDeletePMs remain a bad idea.. Bugs relegated to feasting on MREs for Thanksgiving?
ReplyDeleteDoubled down on BITA this morning. I think this could be another one of those beaten down overseas internet stocks that is significantly higher in a year or two, like CTRP or BIDU was a few years ago
ReplyDeleteLove the chart. I''' see if I get get an opening Monday.
DeletePretty low risk spot down here I think. That's also why I like it.
DeleteLow risk in terms of managing your stops...
Delete"Gregory, thank you for your question. First of all I think, it’s little bit too early for us to give you the exact range of the growth rates for now. But one of the two different things that I think I was mentioning on the call is that, because we’re very clear as to how we were going to approach our new businesses for the future years. We are fairly confident that the infrastructure building stage for to facilitate these new transaction services business has come to a stage where that we believe the current scale of almost 5000 staff nationwide should help us to reach to the next level in terms of the transaction services.
DeleteSo, next year one of the big spending area for the company that relates to headcounts of this year will be fairly limited in terms of next year in terms of growth wise. We’re looking at single digit headcount increase for the entire year of 2016.
So, apparently the area that we actually made investments in this year, the largest portion, is the headcounts. We grew from 3,000 people to nearly 5,000 at this moment, by the end of the year it’s about approximately 5,000. So, you’re looking at about 60% to 70% headcount increase which is a huge cost of the expenses to the company.
The second part of the investment that had made in progression of the future growth was on the so called the transaction incentives. This part of the efforts actually has also been tune down significantly and in the future we do not intend to issue specific incentives to either the industry players or the consumers.
And however, we will actually turn that into part of our marketing expenses in the form of a general BITA coupon. So in essence, this general coupon can actually worth something when any consumer carries out an actual activity on the platform to either buy or sell or take out a loan or repair, maintain a vehicle, or whatnot, leveraging the path that we have created for them.
And also, it will also be part of my marketing expenses in the future. So therefore, when the marketing budgets are being capped at a certain percentage of my revenue, therefore this will also be included within a fixed amount, so it will not be like what happened this year, where that we actually went with the volume itself in essence.
And those general coupons will also only be offered from time to time as a pure promotional matter. It will not be offered on the 365 day consistent basis. So that’s also another way of us looking at the less of a cost of expenses for next year, when we deal with the transaction services.
And lastly, I think this year we also spent a good chunk of money on branding ourselves. And so far I think on the transaction side, we have pretty much build a good name and the reputation among consumers in terms of initiating and generating transactions through us.
So going forward, this part of the brand building will also be part of the entire marketing budget, and it will be controlled on the certain percent of my revenues instead of this year’s that we actually create additional resources to rebuild sort of re-modify our brand in terms of overall-wise.
So going forward, I think it’s fair to - if we look at 2016, the company overall will maintain a very good growth - consistent growth. And also because of all the major expense items that we actually undertaken this year, will be on the very - lot more reasonable rate compared to what happen this year. So therefore our, so-called, promised one-year investment will be coming to an end as of December 31.
So therefore everything will be back to normal on the expenditure side going forward. "
Above is from BITA last conf call. If I look at prior year they did 19% margins. Projections are for 840+ mill revs so 840 x 19% equates to roughly 2.50 EPS. An Internet company with 30% growth typically trades at 30x to 50x EPS which equates to roughly $100/sh
DeleteI noted in my calendar to look closely at energy stocks right before Christmas. I think the parallel to the late 2008 move in ACAS applies here. I'm thinking you might be able to catch a 100% move in a few of these between the last few days of December and the first few days of January.
ReplyDeleteLot of really beaten up small caps. The Saudi's said this week they'd like to see oil between $60 and $80. If we get any indication that this is going to happen, you could easily see moves like that or more.
DeleteI don't think the Saudis could squezze it that much.
DeleteUUP - I guess I'm the only one who isn't observing a downtrend?
ReplyDeleteBXE - Still nowhere near $10, not even close. What a surprise.
ReplyDeleteTTM - Nov-23-15 Downgrade Goldman Neutral → Sell
ReplyDeleteFormer CIA deputy director Michael Morell responded that Barack Obama didn’t order the bombing of ISIS’s oil transportation infrastructure until recently because he was concerned about environmental damage.
ReplyDeleteWe didn’t go after oil wells, actually hitting oil wells that ISIS controls, because we didn’t want to do environmental damage, and we didn’t want to destroy that infrastructure.
Wonder why the US can't eradicate empty oil trucks?
DeleteSilver just slipped under $14 momentarily, just 15% from $13, target mid $12 or so?
ReplyDeleteThis is significant
ReplyDeleteThe International Monetary Fund is expected to grant China’s yuan reserve currency status at an executive board meeting today, in a decision that will elevate the renminbi and China’s influence in the global economy. The group’s benchmark currency basket, also known as special drawing rights, so far only contains the dollar, euro, pound and yen. While the decision is likely to be announced later today, the yuan will not officially become a reserve currency until September 2016
Not sure the repercussions, maybe priced in? PM bugs maintain it's end of $US reserve status but CNY is a communist country currency, no?
DeleteSEDG ? Israel "soon" will open an office focused on renewable energy in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.arabnews.com/middle-east/news/842586
"Given enough $$, we'll discover what works" (alternative energy)
ReplyDeleteUmm, so we still don't have clarity on a permanent replacement for fossil fuels????
Air to Air missiles shouldn't be a concern considering they can only scratch oil tankers anyway, not blow them up.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the one-month intraday price chart of EROS, it seems like it is ready for a jump up to $12. I am still holding the shares I purchased at $7.60 in the hopes of selling them above $12...
ReplyDelete3 out of the 4 oil stocks I follow are up today (WTI, HLX, and BCEI), defying the drop in USO. Investors seem to be sure that oil will not stay this low for a long time and are starting to buy up the beat up stocks before they unexpectedly shoot up...
ReplyDeleteBought another 25% of QQQ.
ReplyDeleteJust saw a funny piece of news for EROS:
ReplyDelete"Company Shares of Eros International PLC (NYSE:EROS) Rally 0.21%
News Watch International - 14 hours ago"
Computers are trading stocks now, computers are making up news, computers are probably also reading the news and interpreting them -- where do humans come in? Computers are now interpreting customer demand (Big Data analysis), figuring out which products will best suit that demand, making up media campaigns for those products, which create subconscious responses in our brains about what aspects of our lives we should try to "improve" -- are humans turning into automatons too?
Check out the 6-month price chart for WTI: 5 higher lows since August 25. Seems like an explosion to the upside is just a matter of time...
ReplyDeleteAnything special about WTI in particular as opposed to MTDR, for instance? At a time when global warming and a rising $US are the prevailing winds. Refiners love cheap ISIS oil, see ALDW and note the dividend.
DeleteThis wouldn't be the first time Saudi Arabia beat an US oil renaissance into the dark ages.
Just thinking out loud, something that doesn't happen at TT often.
WTI can easily double in a few months based on its chart, and I cannot say the same about MTDR or ALDW...
DeleteAlright thanks, it's a chart phenomenon you're monitoring/interpreting.
DeleteNovember in the books. Looks like 2015 is turning out to be the setup year for 2016. Just kind of watching and waiting and thinking about where things could go. Does not seem to be any rush. The big question I am pondering for December is whether to buy some energy stocks in tax-loss selling season, which I have to believe we see given the carnage in the sector this year.
ReplyDeleteThe assumption I think you're making in this case is tax selling hasn't taken place yet. Not sure I can agree, I have no way of knowing.
DeleteMMYT - Ripping higher...
ReplyDeleteAMZN - Catch that 666 low?
ReplyDeleteINTC - Unlike INTC, LG will compensate Rambus for adopting their technology, as opposed to stealing it.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/lg-electronics-lge-licenses-rambus-220800979.html
FCAU - Inverse H&S
ReplyDeleteFederal employees get a cost of living increase but what about Social Security recipients?
ReplyDeleteNWLI - ? “Under the Shadow of Quantitative Easing Investors Should Party Like It Is 1788.” Dizard notes a problem in Europe that “… the ECB and its member banks’ QE is leading to the insolvency of life insurers and defined benefit pension plans.
ReplyDeleteI read that article and googled the report and read the 2014 and 2015 report and could not find that quote. In fact, they talked about profitability being pushed, but the companies were doing things to address this and that there was very little financial distress in the insurers.
DeleteI suspect the article was written without a whole lot of due diligence.
NWLI keeps plugging along being very profitable and their balance sheet is strong. If you really want to dig into it, you can read their statutory reports (I did) which provide a great deal more detail than the SEC ones and these look good as well.
Maybe its here:
Deletehttp://yragharris.com/2015/11/30/unsafe/
or here, do not sunscribe
“Under the Shadow of Quantitative Easing Investors Should Party Like It Is 1788.”
In the weekend Financial Times, John Dizard wrote an insightful piece: “Under the Shadow of Quantitative Easing Investors Should Party Like It Is 1788.” Dizard notes a problem in Europe that “… the ECB and its member banks’ QE is leading to the insolvency of life insurers and defined benefit pension plans. This is no longer a worst-case scenario, but the most likely outcome of the present policy course.” While Dizard focuses mainly on the defined benefit pensioners in Europe, the issue of underfunded pensions is a problem in the U.S., from sea to shining sea. The Portfolio Balance Channel brought forward by Ben Bernanke in his 2010 Jackson Hole Speech has brought vast wealth to Wall Street and hedge fund managers but have left the scarred investors on Main Street underwater in terms of their pensions. What average investor was willing to turn over their wealth to the equity market after the debacle of 2008-2009?
DeleteMany of the public pension funds have remained in very conservative-based portfolios in deference to a LIABILITY DRIVEN INVESTMENT [LDI] program, which has to meet future pension obligations and cannot be overweight to a high-risk portfolio and suffer through the vicissitudes of a stock market correction of extended duration. Ms. Yellen again left unanswered the question of severely underfunded pension obligations as a result of FED-induced financial repression. Like any politician, Ms.Yellen chooses to leave that problem to her successor.
URG - Nuclear power is a potential "quick fix" for reducing carbon emissions, isn't it or not?
ReplyDeleteStrange - no Saut commentary this week. Usually he gets a standin when on vacation?
ReplyDeleteHere I'll do it for him.
DeleteF A N G !!!
Massive volume in TERP today on the Tepper news. Could be a home run if they cancel the VSLR deal
ReplyDeleteREXX - Quite a move
ReplyDeleteNEW YORK—Oil prices will start climbing in 2017, rising to $80 a barrel in coming years as production declines in some regions and global demand continues to grow, the executive director of the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteNo wonder the beat up oil stocks are making higher lows despite oil retesting the August lows -- people are looking a couple of years ahead and are buying these stocks while they are cheap...
Maybe and I hope you are right. But it could also be the 2007 peak ends up similar to the 1981 peak and prices don't move up for almost 20 years. Really hard to know. Technology for oil extraction continues to improve and push costs down.
DeleteThe 6-month chart of HLX clearly suggests that it is done going down. I just placed a buy stop limit order for it at $6.6/$6.7, so as to catch it on the way up when it does move up.
ReplyDeleteTrying to be more like David right now. I was able to ignore the markets while on holiday (which included Monday). Took a peek near today's close, and can't come up with much to say.
ReplyDeleteNice move on EROS, David.
I recommend watching 'River' on Netflix.
Yeah, as opposed to OLED, what a dog.
DeleteDeveloping countries have major sewage treatment problems. Amazing, during this day and age this is true, huh? Perhaps central government and banks don't see the value in resolving this?
ReplyDeleteXYL/DHR/SMED - Wonder why we aren't hearing about how this garbage is moving, surely someone hasn't overlooked them?
Oil - A build of nearly twice the draw.
ReplyDeleteTravel to Mombai and receive your liver treatment for a few thousand $$ as opposed to $80k?
ReplyDelete$2 billion industry - easy to understand why
Deletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_tourism_in_India
Gotta be a way to participate, despite I'm not physically sick or incapacitated.
DeleteNWLI - Seems to like the idea of higher rates, sure took a long time for those guys to accumulate their shares....
QCOM - Okay, now I understand why it was beat up. TT is just chocked full of useful info these days (a waste of time)
ReplyDelete"Internet movie streaming will never succeed. Oh that reminds me, I need to submit my NFLX payment, hold on a minute..."
ReplyDeleteQCOM - Oh, so these guys bought CSRI, the dudes who make the bluetooth chips. The internet of things runs on BT doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteI'd think wifi - my smart and thermostat talk to the router.
DeleteGood point and I see so much stuff that uses BT and wonder about why not WIFI.... I'm not one to ask why the market chooses something but BT is lower power thus should be easier on batteries. I'd rather see the range of WIFI myself
Delete"Jun 3, 2015 ... Broadcom said its chipset has 5.4Gbps of total Wi-Fi data capacity and Qualcomm said its chipset's peak speed to one device is 1.7Gbps."
TZA - Vroom, vroom...... Crazy stuff, day after 2100 was recaptured by bulls they face a rate hike and a new lower low.
ReplyDeleteWhen will the traders get tired of selling the rumor that the Fed is about to raise rates from 0 to 0.25%?
ReplyDeleteMy buy stop order on HLX was triggered this morning at $6.6. Pretty unfortunate. I would have loved to buy HLX *now*, after such a bearish inventory report.
ReplyDeleteMarkets didn't like Yellen's speech. I listened to a good chunk of it and thought she was very good - clear and articulate of the situation. No surprises at all really.
ReplyDeleteIt is remarkable that the oil stocks I am watching are way above their August lows despite USO breaching those lows now. Also, it is remarkable that GDX is above its lows with gold making new lows now. Both oil and gold sectors might be ready for a rebound, if the stocks are not reacting much to bad news in the underlying commodities...
ReplyDeleteI have been thinking for a while that GDXJ / GDX will diverge from gold at some point after gold starts its free fall and that will be the tell that the miners have bottomed. Now is the time to start watching for this divergence. I think it will play out over the next 3-6 months.
DeleteI don't think oil stocks have bottomed. I'm thinking we get a major drop very soon across the board for them. I will be looking for a end of year trade though.
I agree on the oil stocks, OMG the build was almost 2x the draw. Refiners more likely take off to the upside?
DeleteMass shooting, San Bernandino
ReplyDeleteBXP - Okay, go ahead and sell this one down please. I hear the Pentagon has turned to Silicon Valley for new tech ideas? Wow, talk about the power of having infinite pockets can do...
MAC - I doubt this falls out of channel, Tysons Corner is becoming a self-contained city. One implication in aiidtion to being a haven for government contractors and probably a cesspool for white collar crime is the green space tax break aspect that all government contractors covet by simply signing up to purchase green electricity.
ReplyDeleteNXPI - I forgot what these guys make lols, but I do recall ATML makes a pretty cool imbedded controller chip that's easy to program and can be integrated in most any appliance. I've even seen auto gauges using this device on the CAN bus, might be the 7~8 minicomputers each car seems to have.. I should investigate this further, huh?
ReplyDeleteMaybe it isn't Delco making the automotive semi devices anymore?
GBX vs ARII - Talk about divergence.
ReplyDeleteANTM - Don't overlook this one, perhaps? The gap down obligation was satisfied so maybe has become a bear trap?
I think there's a fighting chance global climate change has been reversed already:
ReplyDelete"Bloomberg Commodity Index: down for the 5th month in a row, lowest monthly close since May 1999. "
BAH - Wanna bet the Oct gap up is gonna close? Greater fool theory improves the possibility.
ReplyDeleteBXE - What a great day for this one, it only lost $0.05 and that's really saying something positive for this turd.
ReplyDeleteCP - I’m still thinking we see a drop in XLE over the next 2-3 weeks and then we bottom at least temporarily around Christmas. The low risk way is to buy XLE / ERX etc or maybe we could look for a few small caps that base for a week or so leading into the last few days of the year. Tough call ahead of the OPEC meeting but there are a few similarities with how oil is trading now vs what the S&P did back in late 08 into 09 and it seems like we still have to get a final whoosh lower that wipes out all speculators. I still see plenty of people trading for bottoms in oil.
ReplyDeleteAnd if I look at the bottom in August it seems to me like we just got a typical bear market rally. Rallies off the bottom are usually fierce but they also last for a while, like 7 to 10 days of steady gains in a row and then a pullback that doesn't come close to taking out lows. A recent example of that is BABA. Take a look at how that sucker bottomed. It didn't let anyone in. I don't know if you remember but PEIX bottomed the same way in 2013.
On the flip side, the dollar looks like it could be peaking in the short term here. FXE looks worth a buy given the risk/reward ratio
DeleteI came within millimeters of shorting 2100 but chickened out, lol.
Delete600 Million Wafer (6") production facility planned to go into production, I think somewhere I read one of the investors is NRG?
ReplyDeletehttp://1366tech.com/1366-technologies-direct-wafer-product-achieves-new-performance-records-at-hanwha-q-cells-customer-trials/
OZM - Added to US1 list.
ReplyDeleteHere comes the 4 hour evening PM relief rally, lol.
4063:JP - This is Shinetsu, we used to run their wafers b/c they were the best we could obtain.
ReplyDeleteMKSI - This isn't parabolic, it's asymptotic. If you see this company doing well, something somewhere is being manufactured.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Here is another good example of a classic bottom:
ReplyDeletehttp://200dma.com/200-day-moving-average-1930.jpg
This is the NYSE in the 1929 to 1938 market. Good example of paying attention to the slope of the 200 DMA as this tells you the overall LT direction.
Take a look at how this compares with oil now:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=2&mn=10&dy=0&id=p79372061064
I see oil stuck below a downward sloping 200 DMA with any attempts to rally to it being met with resistance. Additionally it looks like a continued series of lower highs and lows. We could be at the equivalent of the 2nd half of 1930 in the above chart.
Ahead of the OPEC who the hell knows what happens in the short term. But this longer term chart of oil looks like its still in a downtrend to me.
Re the US $, I find it hard to see how it goes higher from here. I think much has been supportive of the US$ the last few years (Euro-QE, EM problems, commodities down). The US$ is now overvalued against pretty much all currencies on a purchasing power basis, so the only way it can go higher is if there is some driving force to encourage people to buy US$ assets (like we saw in the dot com bubble when everyone wanted US tech companies). Other than that, you should see normal currency rebalancing as US exports become too expensive, imports to the US get cheaper, travel moves outside the US, etc. Short term, anything can happen, especially with all the terrorist type events happening around the world, but longer term, really hard to see the US$ appreciating any more and more likely moving lower over time.
ReplyDeleteHe wasn't a white guy by my definition but he was from Saudi Arabia?
ReplyDelete“It appears that Allah decided to punish the ruling clique of Turkey by depriving them of wisdom and judgment,” Said Putin
ReplyDelete