Friday, January 29, 2016

1/29/16 Rock Around The Clock



Global markets wasted no time building on Thursday's rally in US indexes.  Japan's Nikkei +2.8%, Shanghai +3.09%, Hong Kong +2.54%, India +1.64%, Euro Stoxx 50 +1%, Brazil +2.32%.  An impulse rally around the clock across all time zones!

99 comments:

  1. NRG - If this was to break out, would it make a noise?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I bought a fairly large chunk of xbi at the open, targeting between 55 and 59

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sold the last of ENPH @ 2.42.

    ReplyDelete
  4. JONE - A one-day wonder, apparently?

    ReplyDelete
  5. TZA - Thinking of picking this one up for insurance, don't expect market runs back to 2100 anytime soon, more like profit taking kicks in?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would think 1950 would be a level to watch.

      Delete
    2. Sounds good, hopefully I'm not in a batroom conference or otherwise asleep at the wheel. :)

      Delete
  6. FCAU- Is this dead money now or are we still interested?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Missed opportunity on the XYL meanwhile BC is coming back to me, might take time. Suspect someone is tiring themselves defending their outsized MBUU position.

      I heard RACE cars are hot in Japan?

      Delete
    2. All the auto maker stocks are not doing anything, even though their business is very good and they are very cheap

      The concern is that autos are cyclical and we are at a peak and people mare not willing to pay even half a market multiple for peak earnings for a company like this. If it turns out the auto cycle has a ways to run, I'd expect the auto makers to get a very good jump. But, if we are at peak earnings, then they'll probably flat-line for the next couple years and then either head up or down depending on the next cycle, which will be very interesting with the tech companies probably involved.

      I've sold my RACE, but still holding the FCAU with the thinking that the auto cycle has a long way to go as many people didn't buy cars through the financial crisis, but I'm not super-confident in this.

      Delete
  7. EVA - This has been kicking butt too, someone actually wants to burn wood to make electricity?

    ReplyDelete
  8. All right, took profits on NDP -- just sold at $10.30 the shares purchased at $8.86. If oil stalled today, so we could be at the peak of the bounce. If not, and oil keeps rallying, then I'll keep scaling out of my BCEI/BTE shares.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am out of credit now, and will dip into it again if oil retests last week's lows.

      Delete
  9. Canada - I guess now there's not much hope Canada will be interested in supporting the Loonie?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think the Loonie goes much lower and likely bounces slowly over the next few years. It's way undervalued now, but we need to see some commodity pricing firming to get international investors interested.

      Delete
  10. Last 2 times /ES got this overbought on hourly chart the market dropped 100 S&P points and 60 S&P points. Probably not the day to be taking on risk.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Positive market, but if it follow the patter from August, will peak around mid-Feb, then pullback into Feb. month end before really moving back upwards.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Man the NWLI action is insanely predictable.

      Delete
    2. What do you mean by predictable?

      Delete
    3. Price and volume at tops and bottom inflections keep repeating the same pattern. Distribution at top is slow and patient while at bottom the price gets whacked down by someone trying to shake out the weak hands. In summary, I'd say someone is collecting more shares than they're distributing but they're making some hay playing both sides.

      It seems very repeatable.

      Delete
  12. TZA - My stink bid woulda been hit had I not cancelled it. Gonna wait and see despite I'm pretty confident of where this BOJ thing is leading up to.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And would be under water. As if it's any surprise a position on either side doesn't quickly become a losing prospect.

      Delete
  13. SCCO - Back over $25, this is incredible.

    ReplyDelete
  14. NMM recovered so maybe SPH comes on off quite a bit next week since today was ex-div so I can add shares there.

    Eventually once I become accustomed to all the changes I plan on refocusing on the disaster that is BXE. Sometimes problems resolve themselves....

    ReplyDelete
  15. Friday was the second '9-to-1' up day in a week. We're likely to see investors take profits over the next few days, but we're also likely to see some spectacular gains over the next few weeks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just curious but what's your take on the valuation of the market?

      Delete
  16. http://yragharris.com/2016/01/31/trash/

    ReplyDelete
  17. STR - Dominion buying this one, it's been a decent performer considering, and was coming out of the hole (maybe someone like a bank knew?).

    ReplyDelete
  18. Looks like hotel occupancy in the US off to its best start ever: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/01/hotel-occupancy-solid-start-for-2016.html

    Surprised the dollar isn't hurting this more, but I guess this is the low time of year and not much international tourism yet (Europeans get large vacation in the summer).


    CNBC out this weekend with a story about why it is smart to vacation in Canada now:

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/29/canada-lures-us-tourists-with-devalued-loonie.html



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you advocating traveling to Canada in the winter!?

      Delete
    2. If you like skiing or snow mobiling, great deals to be had. Just don't come to Ontario where our snow has pretty much melted. :(

      Delete
    3. I do know a few people going to Canada this year on their ski trips because of the cheaper currency

      Delete
    4. In addition to Whistler/Blackcolm, Big White, Silver Star, and Sun Peaks have great sking with very reasonable slopeside condos, plus Fernie and Lake Louise are interesting too but need to be a more compentent skier.

      Delete
  19. Replies
    1. Why UAL over VA? POT is perhaps interesting and trashed, we need to eat right.

      long POT

      Delete
    2. Valuations. Ual trades at 4.6x estimated FCF using last 3 quarters as a guide. These airlines are major beneficiaries of low oil and if I'm wrong about the economy then they will go up more than the market I think

      Delete
  20. Looks like a double bottom in EROS between mid-November and mid-January. Let's see how high the rebound takes it. I am still holding the shares I purchased in November at $7.60, as I just cannot believe that EROS will not have at least one spike into the teens this year (I have a sell limit order on it at $13).

    ReplyDelete
  21. A marked change in character. The pattern in early to mid-January was to see intraday highs near the open (often a gap-up that was subsequently sold). Now we're beginning to see intraday highs near the close. Today's early -167-point selloff in the DJIA has reversed to a +40-point gain heading into the close. VT (Vanguard Total World Stock Index) has similarly reversed a -0.9% decline to print a +0.4% gain.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Michael LipkaJanuary 31, 2016 at 9:09 PM
    Just curious but what's your take on the valuation of the market?

    (a) US small-to-mid caps are undervalued. Large-caps range from severely undervalued (energy) to overvalued (the FANG dudes).
    (b) International markets are undervalued. Emerging markets are severely undervalued.

    Just my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  23. I have a dilemma as to whether I should take a small profit now on the GDX calls I purchased in mid-January, as the GDX chart surely suggests that a decent pullback is in order. On the other hand, the GLD chart just shows a steady sequence of higher lows and higher highs since early December, which should take it to October highs before pulling back. So the other plan is to take profits when GLD reaches October highs...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That sounds like a very tolerable dilemma. When do the calls expire?

      Delete
    2. Pullbacks are hard to endure when owning options as the time decay still eats away at the value, even if the stock goes nowhere.

      Maybe sell half and look for a lower re-entry point on a pullback and if they do continue upwards, you still have exposure.

      Delete
    3. TD guys have the same dilemma - saying overweight energy for 2016, but also:

      "Meanwhile, since we started writing this research report, the price of oil may have
      bottomed on January 20 (up about 25% since). With equities arguably pricing in about
      $45/bbl today, we expect investors to have another buying opportunity on a pullback. "

      Delete
  24. $35M mixed shelf for ENPH.

    Selling the stock at the bottom. Typical.

    ReplyDelete
  25. ESLT - An Israeli defense contractor that succeeded where Boeing failed.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I'm surprised ENPH isn't get hit harder.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Me too, but maybe some people don't know yet?

      Delete
    2. Can't be. SEDG is down more. That's crazy.

      Delete
    3. I dunno WTF then, all I can say is making inverters isn't exactly rocket science and Japan/China mega companies can do this with both arms tied behind their backs.

      Delete
    4. Think I noticed a few days ago it was up on low volume, maybe just no sellers remaining and new shorts are headed elsewhere?

      Delete
  27. TBT - Hasn't been this low in quite some time, whatever happened to higher rates?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Economy is slowing, inflation slowing, QE in other countries - all putting downward pressure on rates.

      Still think its a "when" not "if" for higher rates, but maybe the US is turning into Japan - doubt it, but you have to consider it a possibility.

      Delete
    2. Japan is a nation of savers, low rates hurt mom and pop compared to US there's pension funds I guess but overseas capital as well?

      Delete
  28. 2016 earnings guidance looking bad - not a good sign:

    http://fundamentalis.com/?p=5635

    ReplyDelete
  29. Rubio now the favourite to win the Republican nomination after last nights Iowa vote and his strong showing:

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

    I think Rubio would be the best for the stock market if he can win.

    ReplyDelete
  30. SUNE - Try some SUNE here? Einhorn is on the board so things could turn around, no?

    ReplyDelete
  31. My gdx calls are good till next January -- I've learned not to play with short-dated calls. So today, once again, why is GDX down so much with gold closing green???

    ReplyDelete
  32. Mike, where is that divergence where gold is going down but GDX is staying flat? We are seeing the opposite right lately...

    ReplyDelete
  33. RACE - Batmobile lost a wheel, Robin laid an egg.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Jan-27-16 04:55PM Fiat Chrysler Sees Peak In Auto Sectors North America Sales

    ReplyDelete
  35. Replies
    1. IEP sporting an 11.6% dividend last Q, goes ex-div around 2/12 is my guess.

      Delete
  36. NWLI - I expect we'll find today's volume was accumulation, do you?

    ReplyDelete
  37. A blurb on Seth Klarman:
    http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/01/seth-klarman-2015-letter/

    ReplyDelete
  38. Replies
    1. I'm just thinking that has a major drop still ahead of it and Icahn is screwed

      Delete
  39. Embattled Toshiba to buy land near Mie factory in focus on flash memory chips

    ReplyDelete
  40. Boy the Nikkei looks horrible to me in the weekly longer term chart. I could see that thing going all the way back down to where it started from

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There are a lot of very cheap stocks in Japan now. Many net-net's like Benjamin Graham made his fortune on where the company is worth less than the liquid assets minus debt on the balance sheet. Not the big companies listed in the US, but the smaller industrial companies listed only in Japan and often with Japanese only financials. At some point, this value should get recognized, but timing this has been impossible and maybe culturally there is something different about Japan which stops this.

      Delete
  41. Replies
    1. So when NM declares bankruptcy, what happens to NMM common?

      Delete
    2. NMM is one of the top losers, what a great company!

      Delete
    3. Beats the poop out of SPH and XYL, two tickers nobody here is willing to examine.

      Delete
  42. TWTR- Bidding S2 @15.19

    ENPH- How come I think there's something going on with this similar to what happened with YRCW?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you referring to YRCW's negative book value?

      Delete
  43. FRO - This one's up a little, new 52wk high...

    ReplyDelete
  44. XYL - Not exactly crashing, I know you guys don't like me posting this ticker.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Larry fink (head of black rock (worlds biggest asset manager)) telling companies to stop giving guidance. I smell a rat

    ReplyDelete
  46. EROS, impressive 3 day performance.

    Do not look now, but golds rallied right under us.

    NEM a proner

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PMs don't seem to be getting that weekend smackdown anymore either. Thing is, Yuan are going to need devalue thus $US goes on a tear?

      Some "smart" money inclusive of Soros are/were short Yuan, europe is FUBAR, $USD and US Treasuries look good aside from US debt is like 102% which is high as hell but probably gets to play hide the weenie.

      Something needs to change, that's for sure. Maybe SHTF and B. Sanders wins the election? Bernie reminds me of the democratic version of Ron Paul, lol.

      Delete
  47. BWLD - Also serving up a plate of ptomaine CMG style? Surely this must be creating a need for food preparation and safety testing equipment?

    No metion of interest in this here, or water filtration technology, WTF is the point of TT if there's no discussion of ideas? F'n lepers.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Orange Capital shutting down - wonder if they've sold their BXE or still have to get rid of it?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/activist-hedge-fund-firm-orange-151914007.html

    Could be some price pressure coming if they haven't.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Price pressure escalates as bankruptcy approaches.

      Delete
    2. I'd like to hear something about Canadian hydroelectric projects, I hear that water is scheduled to be sold and piped to California.

      Delete
    3. Pretty sure they are talking about the electricity generated by the water. It is not legal to do bulk exports of water from Canada now (even though exporting things like food is a high percent of bulk water).

      Why are you asking?

      Delete
  49. All right, I withdraw my complaints about GDX. :) It wisened up a bit and decided to catch up with the gold rally a little. :) A little while ago I sold half of my GDX calls at $3.55, which I purchased at $2.85 during the recent pullback. Will try to hold the rest of my calls until they at least double. :)

    ReplyDelete
  50. The National Restaurant Association just released its Restaurant Performance Index for December.

    ReplyDelete