Wednesday, February 3, 2016

2/3/16 Some Kind of Wonderful



Back to the late session turnarounds.  (Yet another) -200-point plunge in the DJIA
is now a +200-point rally.  Classic
market action.  This morning's decline
was actually the culmination of a volatile overnight futures session, and in my
opinion when combined with Tuesday's sharp decline was quite successful at
shaking out the last of the weak hands. 
I think we're cleared for takeoff!


Grand Funk was the quintessential Seventies party
band.  It may have been at the Civic
Arena in Pittsburgh when I caught them live in 1970.  I can't remember exactly! 

EEM (Emerging Markets) +2.8%.  EWZ (Brazil) +5.73%.  USO (crude oil) +8.5%! (following yesterday's
-5% drop, classic reversals both times on a dime).

183 comments:

  1. Grand Funk, nice!

    BB CanadaFebruary 3, 2016 at 11:16 AM

    Pretty sure they are talking about the electricity generated by the water. It is not legal to do bulk exports of water from Canada now (even though exporting things like food is a high percent of bulk water).

    Why are you asking?

    What, I shouldn't ask is that it, none of my business or what? I didn't think you'd have anything to say, guess I was right.

    The water is scheduled to be sold and piped to California as agreed, per NAFTA.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/its-time-canada-reassessed-its-stance-on-selling-water/article26448144/

      Delete
    2. Agree, cone of silence b/c special interests are still busy muscling up. We don't hear about it till after they're ready to dump and they need victims.

      So you plan on being late to the party, is that it?

      Delete
  2. That's a rather repressive song though.

    ReplyDelete
  3. LOW - Lowe's Companies, Inc. -- Moody's says Lowe's acquisition of RONA boosts its presence in Canada, a credit positive, no impact on ratings or outlook at Moody's -6.19%

    I'm guessing this could be quite positive for LOW in the long term assuming Canadians won't change their habits as a result, going elsewhere to shop.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will help. LOW is having a tough time in Canada because HD got here much earlier and got the prime locations. Plus Canadian co-operative chain has 2,000 stores so many more were gone. LOW just got a bunch of business and good locations and it only cost $2 billion of their $62 billion market cap. And they are buying in US$ which are worth a lot more than when they tried to buy the first time 4 years ago.

      Delete
  4. The 'short yuan' story has gained traction in the past two weeks:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/man-who-made-billions-on-housing-crisis-is-betting-against-chinas-yuan-2016-02-03?link=MW_latest_news

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-hedge-funds-betting-big-against-chinas-yuan-2016-02-01

    Now I have no opinion about the hedge fund managers mentioned or about the yuan. Nor do I plan to open any positions long or short the yuan. But I have seen this movie before, and from the safety of an armchair I'm going to opine that (a) the short yuan trade has become uncomfortably crowded, and (b) disregarding a warning by Beijing re currency bets lies 'where angels fear to tread.' Feet to fire, I would bet on Beijing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thought the same thing when I heard Kyle Bass was in on it too.

      Delete
  5. TSLA - Needs another Elon Musk stick save, it's about time here.

    ReplyDelete
  6. In the spirit of trying for a losing/ hated trade, I picked up a little UGAZ after hours at $1.49. I do see that the LNG export terminal is operational now. Maybe that changes things on the margins, sentiment-wise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Took the quick hit and flipped to DGAZ this morning at $17.4

      Delete
  7. Good numbers out of ING and stock up 10%. Seems regular banking is doing well in Europe. Unlike CS back at 1991 levels, and DB last week, with bad numbers, so investment banking still struggling.

    ReplyDelete
  8. EVTC, that Puerto Rico company I bought that does payment processing, being investigated by anti-monopoly laws. Not sure if this leads anywhere, but will be a distraction for a while both for the company and its value in the market.

    ReplyDelete
  9. SEDG- The consistent sell off after solid earnings is remarkable.

    ReplyDelete
  10. CENX - Aluminum oxide fire....... WTF?

    ReplyDelete
  11. ZINC - + 58% wow man! Short covering?

    ReplyDelete
  12. PCAR - Even this one's up, in light of "truck orders screeching to a halt"

    ReplyDelete
  13. KRE - Is it safe now? Much better price than several months ago....

    ReplyDelete
  14. BAC - I'm thinking this could be a good dividend going forward with nice entry here, thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  15. CP,

    guy on CNBC from Pimco talking about how they think the economy is in better shape than most do and that we see more rate rises this year than are priced into the market. If they are right, stocks like KRE and BAC will almost certainly have very good years.

    ReplyDelete
  16. David Rosebnberg on the end of oil bear market:

    Premise number one is that every bear market comes to an end eventually (as do bull markets). The second premise is that it is always darkest before dawn (it is pretty dark out there).

    The market action (as in failed rallies) and lingering supply glut suggest that it is premature to be calling for a bottom here – but at some point, the low will be in, and I would bet in the very near-term (months, not quarters).

    So as Mortimer sells (hat tip to the 1983 cinematic gem Trading Places), it pays to start thinking of what the financial world looks like after we see the end to the oil bear market, especially given the correlations to other asset classes.

    Note that we have endured bear markets in oil before and there is a pattern that emerges in the ensuing year:

    • The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX each recover roughly 20 per cent on average;

    • Technology and materials actually outperform energy stocks as these cyclicals respond favourably to a return to 3-per-cent real GDP growth;

    • The defensive sectors such as health care, utilities, telecom and consumer staples tend to be laggards;

    • Bond yields rise but the Treasury curve steepens, which is good news for the banks, while rising rates and an improved growth backdrop trigger a sharp compression in credit spreads – by almost 70 basis points for investment-grade corporate paper on average and 265 basis points for the high-yield market;

    • The recovery in oil is the rising tide for other commodities, including gold and other metals, and this in turn shows through in a typical near-6-per-cent appreciation in the Canadian dollar;

    • Volatility rescinds as the rebound in oil prices tends to occur not just with a supply adjustment but also with demand either recovering or staying firm – this then proves to be fodder for the emerging markets universe, which in the first year of the energy rebound sees a 35-per-cent run-up on average.

    I realize that it is early to be talking about what to do once oil bottoms, but as my grandmother always said, forewarned is forearmed.

    It is no different than planning for the eventual return to technology sector optimism back in 2002 when there appeared to be no light at the end of the tunnel or how to proceed with an end to the despair in the financials space in early 2009 when the banks were priced for insolvency and/or nationalization.

    ReplyDelete
  17. My friend is high up at a national tax firm and he said the firm is seeing weakness and a lot of people are worried

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think we need a lower US$ to get things back on track. I know it is hurting tourism from talking to people and many, many people are not taking their traditional winter trip to the Southern US from up here. It also hurt exports of manufactured goods and services - why buy a California wine when an equivalent Italian is cheaper? And things like Netflix, where they are holding the price flat in CDN $ means a 20% cut in revenue for Netflix financial statements.

      The US$ is falling, so maybe a rebalancing is starting to take place, but if the US$ stays up here, going to be a lot of pressure on business.

      Delete
    2. I highly doubt the dollar drops much given how weak overseas markets are and the capital flight going on there. I think this could get a good deal hairier and still think we haven't seen the bottom. Not really willing to do anything on the long side yet.

      Delete
    3. I agree on the wine, time to stock up!

      Delete
  18. It kinda suck to see so much profit being left on the table after I cashed in half of my GDX calls yesterday...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The thing about selling half of something is you know you will be wrong. Either you should have kept it all if it goes up or you should have sold it all if it goes down. Selling half is all about managing risks and being ready for the next trade.

      Delete
  19. This Krackelli guy is great at flushing out the obvious: "House panel made of of imbeciles."

    ReplyDelete
  20. Argentina - "The new government is ending electricity subsidies to consumers, which is resulting in 500 percent increases."

    ReplyDelete
  21. So wondering how states make up gasoline taxes as electric vehicles become common, increase electricity taxes?

    ReplyDelete
  22. POTUS proposed an oil tax of $10/barrel today, for subsidizing alternative energy.

    ReplyDelete
  23. LNKD joins the list of overvalued stocks which miss earnings and get destroyed.

    No benefit of the doubt given any more. If you are highly value, exceed your numbers or else.

    The scary thing is even after the 30% drop post market, they are still trading at 6.5 times sales, which is a high multiple. It's in the range of a CRM, and more than 50% over good companies like MSFT, SAP, ORCL.

    Not a buying opportunity yet in my mind.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with this in a normal market. Problem is we have been in this internet bubble mentality for years. Take a look at CTRP for example. So absurdly overpriced.

      Delete
  24. You have to admit, if the charts are accurate, there is some strange things occurring at the FED.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdYipMc5U1o&feature=youtu.be

    ReplyDelete
  25. Ever wonder what the Fear and Greed in Index consists of :

    SHARE PRICES HAVE CONTINUED
    TO WEAKEN as our International Index has fallen
    another 1.5%, taking it down 9.2% for the year-to-date
    and taking it down 22.4% from its high made late last
    May so the bear market continues in unrelenting fashion.
    However, a bounce is long overdue given the severely
    oversold nature of the global equities market. Even so,
    the CNN Fear & Greed Index has not reached levels
    sufficiently oversold to suggest that a major, important
    oversold level has been reached that shall mean that the
    bear market has run its course. Instead, any rally that
    shall develop must be seen as ephemeral in nature and
    should be seen as a place into which long positions can
    be liquidated and short positions can be established.
    This then brings us to a discussion of the CNN Fear &
    Greed Index, which we find inordinately useful. The Index
    is comprised of a number of easily “find-able” and
    imminently common-sensical data points regarding the
    US equity market. Firstly, the Index takes into
    consideration the “Put and Call Ratio” on the CBOE, and
    actually it is the 5 day moving average of that ratio. At
    the close yesterday, this index suggested that individual
    investors were quite bullish, buying far more calls than
    puts.
    Next, the Fear & Greed Index takes into consideration the
    CBOE’s VIX Index, which last night was “neutral.”
    Then the CNN Index considers the proprietary McClellan
    Volume Summation Index which measures advancing
    and declining volume on the NYSE and as of last night’s
    close this indicator was marginally bullish.
    Then we’ve a measure for Safe Haven Demand which
    measures the difference in 20 day stock vs. bond returns
    and presently bonds are outperforming stocks narrowly.
    Then, a measure of the yield spread between junk bonds
    and government securities and that spread has been
    rising, of course, rather steadily since last June.
    Next is a measure of the difference between the S&P 500
    Index itself and its 125 day moving average, followed by
    a measure of New 52 week Highs – New 52 week Lows
    on the NYSE, which has been moving in the favor of new
    lows obviously.
    CNN then has a proprietary measure “averaging” all of
    these various sub-indices into its Fear & Greed Index,
    which over the course of the past three years has
    fluctuated between a peak of 95 in mid-’14 marking the
    markets peak then and a bottom forged several times at
    or near 10 which marked important, interim bottoms. In
    fact, the most egregiously low level for the Fear & Greed
    Index was 2 in the autumn of ’14, from which stocks ran
    violently higher for months:

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Or just go here.

      http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

      Delete
  26. Good writeup from David Merkel on insurance investing. He's an actuary and is one of the most knowledgeable guys on insurance investing and a good value investor:

    http://thealephblog.tumblr.com/post/138722618858/thoughts-on-metlife-and-aig

    He is a big fan of NWLI and also owns KCLI and GTS which we have talked about before and others listed in his article.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Happy I stayed away from OUTR:

    http://seekingalpha.com/news/3085286-outerwall-call-price-hikes-still-table-olympics-presses-guidance

    Stocks are really cheap for a reason sometimes.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Replies
    1. With oil so low it makes me hard to buy into it but maybe

      Delete
  29. Silver is noticeably lagging gold in this rally, so I just sold at $4.60 the other half of my GDX calls, which I purchased at $3.55. Will buy some on the next pullback, though...

    ReplyDelete
  30. Instead of GDX calls, should have been trading EROS instead...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm waiting for signs of the TOG, hopefully if it happens I can at least identify it.

      Delete
  31. TSN - How's that stock doing on such a difficult day?

    ReplyDelete
  32. S&P going to 1500, I guess. Maybe even back to 1300...

    ReplyDelete
  33. Prepare for waves of defaults and of course selling to raise cash, storm is gaining strength?
    "CCC-Rated Junk-Bond Yields hit 20%"

    ReplyDelete
  34. POTUS: - "Gas prices will be low for quite some time to come"
    Whatever happened to "Don't buy an SUV b/c gas prices won't be low for long"?
    I guess he changed his mind?

    ReplyDelete
  35. ENSV/SWN - two oilers doing well today.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Replies
    1. Mark, what do you like about TWTR at this price? A recruiter from there recently reached out to me, but I don't know whether it is even worth talking to them given that their stock keeps going down...

      Delete
    2. It's an Internet message board right now. If they were smart they would have shifted strategy to focus solely on real time search.

      Delete
  37. ITB - Here's one I'm glad fell back today, it has to go back up eventually.

    ReplyDelete
  38. I ended up taking multiple Sso /spxs trades today and actually made ~1.5% today. I keep going to cash no matter what at the end of the day. Too risky

    ReplyDelete
  39. I grabbed some ugaz today too. That chart reminds me of nugt before it went up oh 120%!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If UGAZ rises above mid-January lows (at $1.80) soon instead of breaking down to new lows, then we can speculate that a medium term bottom is in...

      Delete
    2. But then, you have to look at the real futures, rather than at UGAZ:

      http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html

      If futures rally next week, then they will have made a higher low relative to mid-December, which is quite encouraging...

      It is also worth noting that there is very little contango in NG futures, so buying some UNG and waiting for better times to come might be a decent strategy (UGAZ evaporates on fluctuations, while UNG is not affected by fluctuations). Buy UGAZ only when you are sure that the uptrend has begun...

      Delete
    3. But then, once again, if on Monday UGAZ continues to rally instead of gapping down, then the likelihood of a medium-term bottom will be high. So I just placed a buy stop limit order on UGAZ at $1.6/$1.7.

      Delete
    4. "Bernie Sanders will ban fracking"
      No coal, no gas... Thus it appears the lights will go out in America?

      Delete
  40. NWLI - Hasn't been this low in quite some time, see rounded top. Incredible, difficult for me to believe. We must be in for more serious trouble?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Think it was either forced selling or someone trying to sell too fast in a market with few buyers.

      Delete
  41. David - the underlying structural demand / supply balance has been shifting bullishly for natural gas for the past year. This is due to coal plants being retired in exchange for nat gas, as well as production being capped. Additionally, LNG export terminals are now on board which will add fractionally to demand. All it takes is a little abnormal weather and I think the elements are in place for a bullish move in nat gas. It's a better more sound market than it's been in a while.

    ReplyDelete
  42. NAO - How much of this has Leon Cooperman (10% owner) sold? Not very much, according to what I can find.

    ReplyDelete
  43. West Texas, as I've been saying. Canada is obviously hostile ro oil producers besides there's no infrastructure. Just look at geology, it's easy to understand how West Tx. forests were covered over by the meteor that created the gulf of mexico. Can anything on par be said for Canadian oil fields?

    "Yantai Xinchao will acquire oil assets in the western Texas Permian Basin that are currently owned by Tall City Exploration and Plymouth Petroleum."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cananda #3 in reserves in the world. US #11

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

      Delete
    2. Which clearly explains why it's held up so well!

      Delete
  44. Apparently the key datapoint market has been waiting for this weekend was China's reserves report of $120B, not the $55B low end bears were fearing.

    ReplyDelete
  45. The other thing with natty is with oil tanking the rigs in oil are coming off line so that whole associated drilling that was going on for natty will reduce supply eventually. The drag will be if we go into a recession and industrial use drops. But natty surpassed coal usage for most of 2015 which was I believe the first time ever. So the underlying supply / demand structure has shifted in favor of bulls in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. NG futures are up now, so real life seems to confirm your theory... :)

      Delete
    2. Since NG futures are up so much, I increased the limit part of my buy order on UGAZ to 1.8.

      Delete
    3. I sold ugaz pre market. Might re enter later. Just more inclined to take quick gains in this market

      Delete
  46. The pause that refreshes.

    Let's face it, the 'V' recoveries are 'all way in the past. What, did you come here to listen to an old record or something?' -John Mayall, 1972

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'd like to see the DJIA hit new highs, led by stocks like Caterpillar, Chevron, Dupont, Exxon Mobil, and United Technologies.

      Delete
    2. Let's say 9 months to a year.

      Delete
  47. Oh nice, a motorized suitcase that follows you through the airport. So even if you have a hover board this thing keep up? Whatever happened to the commuter scooter, that makes more sense to me and very popular in Asia.

    ReplyDelete
  48. WY - When's the next ex-div date, anybody know or is div gone?

    ReplyDelete
  49. ANTM - Bernie's gonna make healthcare work by excluding public sector insurance companies, right?

    ReplyDelete
  50. TSN/MBUU/NATI
    NMM - People cannot wait for Chinese new year to end to hear of new iron ore orders.

    ReplyDelete
  51. The bear arrived right on time as Bill Cara predicted, got to give him credit for that. Now I'm waiting for this TOG to materialize, already the PM portion seems to be gaining a little steam but the FED could easily squash PMs if/when they desire. So I have to guess they're inclined to allow them to run in order to maximize the pain for PM bugs and new converts.

    Unless of course Bill Cara is proven correct, which might be fascinating.

    Wow though, think of the wealth being transferred from pension funds, maybe they're short?

    ReplyDelete
  52. That's how people get left behind the gold rally. And that's why it is not worth trying to pick the bottom on the way down -- you get stopped out many times at a loss, and when eventually the trend turns around, you get one small gain once, then sell the shares thinking it is just a little bounce (as I did with my GDX calls), and then the price takes off vertically and you cannot recoup all those losses you had on the way down...

    ReplyDelete
  53. My buy limit order on UGAZ was triggered this morning at $1.73. Last week's price of $2 is pretty low for NG futures, so maybe NG did hit the rock bottom and will not oscillate here for some time until the fundamentals that TOF is mentioning will create a steady uptrend. UGAZ should be a good trading vehicle when NG stays range bound. But then, I thought the same think about oil in the fall, but it turned out that oil had another leg down...

    ReplyDelete
  54. XRX - All the pomp and stance didn't last long, I guess smart money paid for the clever campaign.

    ReplyDelete
  55. A beautiful finish for US indexes, the DJIA reversing a -400-point decline to close off -178 points @ 16027. CVX (Chevron) +3.65% and XOM (Exxon Mobil) +1.35% both recovering from an early morning selloff to close solidly in the green.

    ReplyDelete
  56. BXE - Not sure why this couldn't cough up the usual dime.

    ReplyDelete
  57. David - I noticed a very similar setup with natty as nugt which is what got my long Friday. I am looking for it to hold the 50dma to build up strength for another leg higher. I'm thinking natty needs to hold today's lows

    ReplyDelete
  58. AUMN - Wow, just noticed this one's still listed? Apparently still bleeding cash and diluting shareholders.

    ReplyDelete
  59. MMYT - This has come back to us. Now lower than when I sold mine to the smarter money.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Grabbed a little TWTR at $14.88 only for a potential short covering rally into earnings on wednesday

    ReplyDelete
  61. Any ideas on this "internet of things" subject? I've been researching this subject.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Say it ain't so! We all know about Michael Vick. But Dan Marino (after sinking all his money into Digital Domain)?

    ReplyDelete
  63. 2nd_ave, I remember during October 2008 there would be a huge drop in the morning of each day and then some kind of a recovery toward the end of the day. Institutions would sell quickly in the morning, and then some unfortunate traders would bet on this being the end of the selling and buying at the close. When institutions start selling, the usual sentiment indicators don't work. There might be a lot of bearishness out there, but the prices can still drop a lot, despite that bearishness...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have a good memory. James DePorre recently pointed out that (compared to real estate, for instance) it's extremely easy for stock investors to sell. We can sell anytime. If I feel capital preservation is called for, that's what I'll do.

      Delete
    2. Hope you're right. If you could endure the pain, Oct, 2008 was a good time to be buying.

      It's interesting watching TV and reading, the chart and momentum guys all seem negative and calling for more, sometimes even a lot, of downside. But the more fundamentally oriented ones are pretty much all saying things are cheap, there's no recession so not a big reason to, companies are doing pretty well, good time to be buying.

      We'll see who is right, but I definitely find it hard to sell down at these levels.

      Delete
  64. DB/ other euro banks: Bond redemption's (COCO bonds) where the bonds convert to equity once capitalization drops under a set amount. This kicks off a short equity long CDS feedback loop.

    ReplyDelete
  65. XOM green today, up for the year, and above its 200 DMA. Who would have thunk it.

    Makes me more bullish on oil. I think the odds that we saw the low are increasing. Granted it's at $30.10 right now as I look so it's easy to say that after a 10-15% move from the bottom. But I'm beginning to think XOM is telling us something.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Disclaimer: I'm entitled to change my opinion at any time.

      The one that has me more interested is this natty gas. I picked some up today at $1.65. If I see natty hold around the lows of the day today and go back above the 200 DMA I will add a little. I think you could see a double in short order if it can build out a base here around 2.10-2.15 natty.

      Delete
    2. Maybe XOM above the 200 dma is a fake out...

      Delete
  66. I think the "tells" for today were:
    Green Apple
    Green XOM
    Late day breakdown in gold / gold miners.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm thinking we rally from here, especially with Yellen on deck wed/th. Odds she hints at taking the foot off the breaks are quite high. I wouldn't be short here.

      Delete
  67. I grabbed a little amzn today at $485.5 only thinking flip at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  68. PFF - Yield is near 6%, redemptions occur with conversion to common leading to selling and/or just to cash? Surely there are eurobanks in this basket pushing it down?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PFF components

      Allergan Plc Preferred Stock 03/18 5.5 2.9
      Hsbc Hldgs Pfd 2.37
      Barclays Bank Plc 1.66
      Gmac Cap Tr I Pfd 1.64
      Wells Fargo & Co, San Francisco Ca Pfd 1.48
      HoldingsLast Updated 01/29/2016
      Security Name % Net Assets

      Delete
  69. ANTM - Picked up a little on the dip.
    JONE - Wow, what a turd.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Wonder how much further down till banks reach fair value?

    ReplyDelete
  71. OPWR - I'm not sure this company needs more of a tailwind than solar power provides considering the US goes all-in by tossing away all of coal/gas/oil straight into the garbage pale? Remember Enron and those rolling power shortages they threatened?

    "The Company's solutions consist of Opower Energy Efficiency, which motivates customers to use less energy and participate in other energy efficiency program"

    ReplyDelete
  72. Not that it matters but I added to AAPL/SPY/WY this morning before I left. Now about 60% long.

    Tried to sell TWTR but it crashed by the time I got out of the shower :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Haha same here. I sold half for a profit and half for a slightly bigger loss

      Delete
  73. HLI - These guys claim they're super busy arranging corporate financial services.

    ReplyDelete
  74. AMZN - I dunno man, maybe Bezos should buy out FDX.

    ReplyDelete
  75. SCTY- Ouchie, but not surprised. What a crappy business model.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Off 30% today...which is why I'm hiding in ETF's APPL, etc.

      Delete
    2. I thought Musk was THE tech God, he did restart MUNI after all, and outperformed NASA space and their $$$$ Billions (Trillions?).

      I don't know if he advocates increasing the military budget and raising taxes taking on more debt for that all at the expense of providing basic services.

      Delete
    3. Ha, did you see Bezos' rocket topple over while landing? The legs on that thing were pretty cheesy, no surprise it fell over.

      Delete
  76. "Rate hikes for metro buss fare due to budget shortfalls."

    I bet we have enough budget to build a green bridge to nowhere.

    ReplyDelete
  77. SNR - Looks like all the nursing home stocks were whacked hard on news Medicare won't cover expenses but we only have a budget to increase military spending. I guess I'll be seeing a whole slew of super nice boats on our lake this summer again, Middle and upper management of military contractors love their toys.

    ReplyDelete
  78. I sold my Twtr for a small loss and ugaz for a small loss. Picked up some Sso into the close

    ReplyDelete
  79. Now I get the "war on cash" meme. Theory is with ZIRP people go to cash to avoid negative interest so as long as cash exists ZIRP can be avoided.

    ReplyDelete
  80. 14% alimony notes for Manitowoc's food services divorce.

    ReplyDelete
  81. LDOS has come back to Earth, any takers?
    NWLI - Playing hard ball.

    ReplyDelete
  82. XLU - How can we short utilities, looks frothy? Oh, wish I'd ridden them up.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Jeez this market is weak as hell

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Topped with utter indifference.

      Delete
    2. I don't know man there was tons of bubbles in biotechs and tech.

      Delete
    3. Bang bang, boogie to the boogie, up jump the boogie to rhythm of the beat.

      Delete
  84. Wonder if shorting gold just prior to Yellen's testimony would be a good trade?

    ReplyDelete
  85. NUAN is the engine for SIRI, right? AKAM popped too.

    ReplyDelete
  86. I sold Sso pre market luckily before Yellens testimony came out. This woman is delusional

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Inflation - Due to corporate price hikes in compensation for their debt?

      Delete
  87. FCAU - That figures, was getting way too low.

    ReplyDelete
  88. JONE- I can't see anything recently other than Vanguards filling.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Momentum is clearly down. Other than trying a quick flip I still see no reason to go long. Staying flexible but patient all year. It's been tempting to buy some stuff for longer term but I still think the trend in earnings + high valuations + being under 200 dma warrants caution

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's been painful that's for sure. Not so much financial, but emotional. Freaking a grind.

      Delete
    2. I have held a few small shorts in edz / ewv but have been mostly cash for a while. Getting boring but beats losing

      Delete
    3. Today was a great example. Up about 25K near the open and close flat.

      Delete
    4. That sucks. I'm glad I took my gains on SSO pre market. Had a feeling they would give it up.

      Delete
    5. This market has been gnarly. But makes total sense to me given how far we went up and how many records we broke on things like number of months without 10% corrections, winning quarters in a row, etc.

      Delete
  90. I think XOM is a clear short here. Great risk / reward

    ReplyDelete
  91. SEDG now 3 bucks below my sale price and a 'wasted' GS conviction buy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I loved the timing of their conviction buy on the solars back literally at their peak in December.

      Delete
  92. Hopefully the market holds 1800 and can put in a floor of support. There's a head and shoulders pattern (which has actually been working well lately for what its worth) on the hourly chart with a downside target of 1,660.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When I look at the daily chart, it looks pretty similar to the bottoming sequence from August. If it repeats, market start moving up pretty quickly.

      Delete
    2. Yeah a trader guy I follow was saying that too.

      Delete
  93. Replies
    1. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/1d8fd496-cfd1-11e5-986a-62c79fcbcead.html#axzz3zqX5FQlx

      Delete
  94. Looks like some panic selling overnight in Europe, mainly on financials fears, but things coming back some now.

    Not sure how this stops - maybe Draghi needs to get back out and say something supportive. But seems like people are selling first and asking questions later.

    ReplyDelete
  95. ALDW - Right back to where I bought it before.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not a flash crash this time though, more like the rest of the market just methodical selling as people learn things aren't so rosy as led to believe.

      Delete
    2. Well, I had to buy some back.... Paid $12.18

      Delete
    3. Hmm... Doesn't look like I'll be able to grab more lower maybe I should've loaded the boat in one shot?

      Delete
  96. TBT - Still in crater mode thus TOG hasn't begun yet. (assuming I understand the TOG)

    ReplyDelete
  97. MBUU - Granted these aren't the most expensive boats out there but I really like the wakeboard type of boat and wowie are they expensive so any little break is welcome and heck, Malibu does the job I think, go for a Tige if you're stinking rich (military contractor)

    ReplyDelete