Spring is just around the corner! Good luck in 2016 players!! According to Schwab, my 2015 return was 5.21%. That was a LOT of freaking work for that meager of a return...and stress!
Did not know that about Joe. The good thing, if their is one, is that the liver can regenerate.
The last part of December I have been thinking really hard at just working on my health this year and forget the market and come back and re-access in 2017. Hard to walk away, have not decided.
Family and your health is as good as it gets. Happy and Healthy to all.
Nice work Mark! Way ahead of the average investor and the markets. Was a tough year to outperform.
I ended up be up 11.7% for 2015.
But that is Canadian $. When I look through my returns, my individual stocks were, on average, flat for the year, but I had moved about 60% of my money out of Canada the last few years when our dollar was high and got the benefit of that in 2015.
I think 2016, currency will be much less of a factor than 2016 and probably the Canadian dollar rises and will hurt my returns.
SYPR - I never heard of it, could be one of those background companies doing the actual work? Can 1300 employees be sufficient size to supply the market, I guess it could play a very important part.
SE - Perhaps everyone has gotten over the shock of learning gas storage wells need periodic maintenance and public regulators have been looking the other way (asleep at the wheel) for far too long?
KEX - Man, I don't get it... You'd think a flooding Mississississippi would keep some towing vehicles under extended contract or something like that? CORN - Must be plentiful, despite cultivation has pressured wild bee population habitat. Nice to know we need to grow corn for mixing with gasoline so nobody can make money off the decimated environment.
TORONTO — Ontarians who use natural gas to heat their homes and fuel appliances will get a break on the price starting in the new year.
Is this a market that actually works, surely not positive for shareholders if the utility is forced (allowed?) to pass savings along to consumers?
"The Ontario Energy Board has approved rate decreases for Enbridge Gas Distribution Inc. and Union Gas Ltd. effective Jan. 1, 2016.
The board says typical residential customers with Enbridge who use about 2,200 cubic metres of gas per year will see their bills fall by about $43 next year."
Not sure what the details of this last comment are, but higher prices for the remaining 30% who don't use gas should produce incentive?
"The 30 per cent of Ontario homes that use electricity for heating, and every other hydro consumer, will see bills rise again on Jan. 1 because of changes to Liberal government energy programs."
Probably in the US, plentiful natty and propane are incentive for converting to pixie dust?
The way it works up here is nat gas utilities charge for the service and delivery, but the cost of the actual gas is basically a flow-through, but regulated by the government.
Out electricity has gone from being one of the cheapest in North America to one of the most expensive because our Liberal government has decided to move to full environmental mode and made some very poor decisions like paying farmers $.90 per kilowatt for solar and then selling it to the public for $0.12 and subsidizing the rest. Or shutting down our last coal plant, even though it was only used a few times a year, then signing a contract for a plant to replace it, then cancelling that contract at a cost of $1 billion because they wanted to win an election. Lots of dumb things.
I reopened positions in Emerging Markets + miners on December 29. Both positions moved against me the following day, and had I followed my usual trading rules I would have closed out immediately. I opted to hold given the tail wind seasonality provides, and in fact both positions closed modestly higher last Thursday. Obviously, we are seeing weakness across the board this morning, and I am exercising my trading rules here, no questions asked. EEM (emerging markets) is off -3%, but GDX (miners) is up +2%. All positions off, and now in cash.
I have no control over market movements. Whether or not prices move to my benefit is a calculated risk. The variables over which I have control:
(a) Whether to open a position. (b) Entry price. (c) Position size. (d) Stop loss (exit price for positions that move against me) or trailing stops (price[s] at which to lock in gains).
My reaction to this morning's selloff? My bad? No. The trades were a calculated risk. One moved against me, the other was a gain. The only action over which I had control (but opted not to take) was to close all positions on December 30. I had a reason not to, but I'm also willing to accept responsibility for not having done the 'right thing.'
I was bullish on December 29, still bullish on December 30, even more bullish on December 31, and bearish today. The only opinion of the four that matters right now is that I'm bearish today. The past is irrelevant when trading. It's all about the present and the future. I may turn bullish heading into the close, or turn bullish tomorrow. Right now I'm bearish.
I prefer 15 fixed due to amount of interest repaid compared to 30 year. But to really answer/comment on your question would require what you are wanting to do and your objectives. IO will require payoff or refi by the end of term.
(a) It's more difficult to qualify for an IO. (b) Most insiders (bankers, loan brokers) opt for an IO. (c) If you know what you're doing, and are able to handle a balloon payment at the end of term (most refi before then), an IO is the better deal. You can use the extra cash to pay down the principal (simultaneously lowering future IO payments), and probably pay off your mortgage sooner.
The assumption with this one is that Dropbox's valuation is legit. Also I think they will end up getting bought. I use Dropbox a lot and I know of a lot of people that do. Box is more of a corporate play on cloud storage. Chart is a little suspect to me because it looks it is setting up more like a rising wedge which as I mentioned above has been a good pattern to short but I actually don't think the valuation is that crazy at about 5x sales.
Anyways, I would favor being long vs short this company if I had to choose just because cloud storage is in a long term bull market and they seem to be one of the best options out there as a play on that.
Also, it seems to me that the rising wedge pattern has been working if there is a strong fundamental reason for further price declines (ie oil / commodities glut or ridiculous valuation).
Another one I'm watching closely is TRUP. I think they're a buyout target. They offer insurance for pets. Nice recurring revenue model. They're projecting breakeven cash flow this year.
Let's all buy this dip! Before we do, let's consider:
(a) How will investors in China respond on Tuesday to the trading halts imposed Monday on all three exchanges? (b) The last time US markets sold off, the algos fired off buy programs. What if they instead fired off shorts last week, and plan to cash in by accelerating an overdue decline?
Fools rush in, and were rewarded each and every time in 2015. Think it over.
Tough to do this on a day like today after making several good moves entering the year but I decided to buy GDXJ and GDX after a big move up today. Also bought some NUGT to help juice the return a little bit. Long GDX at $14.12, GDXJ at $19.89, and NUGT at $26.32.
I think there could be a significant January effect in these stocks this year. We're talking a 4-5 year bear market and the sector as a whole is down 80% or so from highs in 2011. They have been consolidating for the past 5-6 months and there's generally a move back up for these beaten down sectors in January. Sentiment is pathetic. I'll use a move below last week's lows as an area to close my position. Tomorrow will be a key day for these. If they're ready to move then tomorrow they continue on today's gains.
These types of trades are often the hardest ones to take for a variety of reasons. For me, I will know quickly if I'm right. If they gap down tomorrow then the trade isn't ready yet. But I think we're very close to this trade working.
I haven't been to CMG, someone was trying to get me to take them (had to turn around and go other direction) and I passed in favor of taking them (and myself) home, lol.
I've had their burritos brought to me and they favor comparably to something I might make myself, it's not easy to maintain that variety of ingredients in the fridge.
LOL, I'm overall green today and shock of shockers my CENX position (still underwater of course) is one of them. Huh?
I'm glad my bud asked me what I thought of YHOO a couple weeks ago, I told him I wasn't keen on a company that can't get traction. YHOO should buy Kirby vacuum cleaners or something, change is good.
APD looks pretty good. I worked with these guys, they were the only company that could supply one of our needs in the US (ClF3, an incendiary material).
Top of page currently, ZH: "Gold Bullion’s 2016 Upleg Posted by: GoldCore Post date: 01/04/2016 - 15:09 Gold is poised to rebound dramatically this year, mean reverting out of its recent deep secular lows."
Is FSLR the supplier partner for SCTY? Thought they were... I guess SPWR is a decent play from a solar farm perspective, no sure if solar farms will have AC or SC panels? The ITC, is it specific for residential?
I didn't realize how significant of a break down yesterday was for a lot of stocks. What worked well yesterday and the past month? SNE comes to mind as one that is starting to base out. I know retailers did well. Could be yet another rotation but stuff I follow like EXPE, SBUX, airlines broke down out of the shorter term trendlines they had.
Lot of companies getting cheaper though too. I don't think we see a recession, so usually these are buying opportunities. Stocks like UNC, UTX, WMT, GPS, MET, AEG all at pretty low valuations.
I'm torn between putting some money into these larger stocks and going more into small caps. Don't have a good feeling as to which should perform better in 2016.
I'm still thinking we will see a better opportunity later in the year. But I intend to only swing at really fat pitches this year. I ended up with my worst year in a long time. Down 15.6%. Expected given I averaged over 100+% for 6 years in a row thanks to a huge once in a generation bull market. Had my chance to have a solid year but ignored my own advice (shorting biotechs in July).
The only fat pitch I see right now from the long side is Gold miners but that will change I'm sure.
I'd give yourself more credit for that kind of return - it is exceptional and very rare.
Plus the bull market wasn't a "once in a generation" event. Look back at the 1990's, especially the late 1990's when we were +20% or higher 5 years in a row. And 2011 was pretty tough I thought.
More likely, I think it means the market cycle is changing and what was working has stopped so we need to figure out what will work for the next few years. Might be large caps, probably more value-oriented stocks, maybe something else. Think high-yielders and aggressive growth (social media, biotech) are out.
Yeah it's a very tricky market, no doubt about it. In the prior 6 years I felt like I could just throw out any trade and it would eventually come back. Right now, there's a good chance that won't ever come back and there's very little continuity from one day to the next. Being patient is huge right now.
My disclaimer on gold miners is that the longer they hang out here the odds favor them collapsing and dropping like nat gas did recently. Accepting (vs rejecting) lower prices is usually a recipe for another leg lower. If the market can get out of this funk it's in then I'd have to imagine gold goes a good deal lower. That would drop the miners obviously.
I've actually decided to go out and get a job and just bide my time until the next bull market comes along. I have a feeling we could be in this kind of a market for a couple more years where we make marginal new highs then give it back. I guess it could make for some good range trading but that's tough especially for me because I generally make the majority of my gains on smaller cap stuff that require a trending market.
This is the concern I've had most: that people continue to lose money and are unwilling to pay up for stocks and multiples grind down.
I think we grind lower and have good opportunities later in the year. But I think its tradeable as it heads lower. Maybe we get 100 point drops in the S&P followed by 80 point pops. I'm buying some SPY today.
VMC - I look at this chart and think to myself about how one FED guru walking his dog in Boston looked up and was alarmed by his count of cranes erected.
Me too, anything of particular interest? I transferred my vinyl onto VHS HI-FI years ago for "preservation", specs are better than CD and it's pure analog.
AAPL at $100 seems like a target. No, I don't believe there's a 30% cutback. I don't trust Jeffries though. Self driving cars made by ISIS? I preferred the 72 year old virgin theme. BTU - Republican (Trump) election win?
I've been waiting for AAPL (Apple) to retest its August 24 lows (during the ETF 'Crash'). Trading range that day was 92-108. It's @ 101 right now, and I'm in!
The way the market is acting, I think it will have to be the value guys who stop the decline - the traders who say "I don't know where stock xxx will bottom, but I'm confident buying at this valuation, it will be much higher in 3 years".
It actually usually is the value guys who stop a decline, unless we have a 2008/2009 situation, and then they get in too early and the traders look for spike down bottom.
I bought some stuff premarket. Looking for a bounce in /ES to breakeven on the year. We are in a downtrend channel right now and it hit the bottom this morning at 1971.
I could make the case for 16% total return with DIS stock right here over the next 5 years. Here's what I'm assuming:
Operating Income Growth of 15% per year (avg of past 10 years) 35% tax Rate Shares shrink by 2% per year (avg of past 10 years) 1.2% dividend yield
I'm finding more and more of these types of plays - great companies that you can calculate good returns but not enough to get me really excited (ie 25%+ returns). My hope is that the market slowly grinds its way lower until about mid year, maybe a little later, and stuff like this, CAKE, and some others that I can rationalize 16% returns on end up being 20-25% returns.
Realistically on a stock like DIS, the lowest it might go is the low $80s which is a drop of 33% from the peak but puts it at 16x EPS assuming the EPS estimate for this year is too high by 10%. That would yield a 20% annual return assuming the above inputs.
I'm using DIS because to me it's one of the best companies in the world right now and it should be trading at an above market multiple. I think it supports the view that the market isn't that overvalued. If DIS was trading at 30x EPS and you could only rationalize a 3-5% total return over the next 5 years using aggressive assumptions then I would agree. But DIS is at 17.8x EPS estimates for this year and potential 16% total return over the next 5 years using normal inputs for growth / shares reduction.
I guess if you believe most of the "bad" news is priced into markets, 16% isn't terrible? To me, it depends on circumstances going forward. Would a top in $US provide some relief in terms of tourism or is DIS distributed such that wouldn't matter?
I guess if stateside oil production craters then oil money resumes back to Saudi Arabia helping to offset or reverse their deficit spending, consider Saudi's are substantial customers of US military contractors?
Obviously something's going on we're not privy to, as usual.
Yeah I'm using the past 10 years averages which does include a nasty recession but also a low dollar throughout. Domestic revenues are about 75% of total. Iger did mention back in August that the strong dollar would hurt their earnings
We're doing great, buy the dips (assuming you're a lying-ass moron)!
"Standard & Poor’s slashed the credit ratings of 112 corporations around the globe to default (D) or selective default (SD) in 2015, according to S&P Capital IQ Global Credit. The highest number of global defaults since nightmare-year 2009, when a previously unthinkable 268 companies defaulted, and not far behind the second highest default tally of 125, in 2008.
The oil & gas sector led with 29 defaulters (26% of the total). Metals, mining, and steel followed with 17 defaulters (15% of the total). The consumer products sector and the bank sectors tied for the third place, each with 13 defaulters (12% of the total)."
This isn't a new phenomenon, it's a repeat phenomenon. Just as PMs crashed in 2008/9 they will again this time IMO. The $US remains the least risky currency as global econ slows down (Economic slowing is consistent with environmentally conscious policies. Auto manufacturing is probably a necessary evil not terribly green, considering the environmental loading?).
I've mentioned the environment consequences of economic growth several times yet there haven't been ANY responces, am I conversing with mouth breathers or a few stubborn guys who prefer to make the market do what they want?
Yes, it's possible solar is net environmentally positive but there really hasn't been indepth discussion here, could be solar is just a staged distraction.
I'm pretty sure nuclear power is net GHG friendly, there are tradeoffs energy still isn't quite free last I checked but comes close sometimes, now already twice in the past decade.
TAXI - Looks like an inverted cup? Remember when there was a time taxi drivers had to be licensed and bonded, not just any Joe Camel driving around in an EV?
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for entrepreneurship, but our government(s) required these guys join this market and now chose to change the rules?
I think stocks like DIS will provide a floor in the market due to their valuations. Can only go down so much unless we have a recession or big rise in rates.
How does $US continuing to lift impact this idea? FWIW, I'm unconvinced we ever really exited recession for any substantial period aside from allowing insiders to offload assets (similar to stock buybacks theme) but I'm unconcerned about my opinion b/c it's mine personally and belongs to me only.
"Iger did mention back in August that the strong dollar would hurt their earnings"
If I wanted to buy DIS, I'd look into it more to see how much of their revenue and profits come out of the US.
But, I almost bought DIS back in 2011 in the high $20's, so have a really tough time paying $100 now, so not interested. Plus, I'm not a not a big TMT fan because of the requirement to follow trends more than I want to, so need a great deal to step in, not just a good one.
Nothing magical about $80. I just used that as a spot where it would be trading at 16x EPS assuming EPS stays flat for 2016...and it also would be a spot where the estimated total annual return over the next 5 years would be 20%.
Interesting set of charts from JP Morgan - http://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-1q-2016-markets-guide-2016-1
Interesting points: - odds of bear market are low given none of normal causes in place - real estate has done exceptionally well over the last 20 years, even with the crash, with REIT's outperforming the S&P 500; Question is whether this can continue (is there a structural advantage to real estate investing) or should stocks outperform the next decade?
Supposedly there's a lack of housing, not sure what or who is worthy of belief. All I can say is it does appear prices have risen considerably and my old wise friend tells me home sales in DC area aren't robust as the media has been claiming.
I know I wouldn't invest in housing in Canada as the ROI as prices are still high (we never had a correction) and ROI's aver very low. I've thought about going into industrial/commercial, but think it all gets dragged down if housing falls apart.
NMM - Lol, just a couple days ago my position was in the black, not so anymore! I guess the global economy is being slowed down on purpose (makes it easier to reach GHG reduction quota).
Wow man, that's worse than a nightmare but the same kind of crap that goes on here. Yeah, probably 90% of my electric bill involves the service itself but I'm no sure any of that really is tax despite it's called tax I think it goes to the power company and they of course maintain the lines, etc. otherwise they couldn't deliver. If I call them and inquire they claim it's an authorized tax but I know better. So solar also has line maintenance so explain how costs can go down by using solar and you KNOW utilities aren't about to just go out without a fight and allow rooftop, despite if they were to do that YOU still get to pay for infrastructure so where's the beef? Geothermal would at least cut down the amount consumed by those who are all electric but I haven't put a pencil to how much really considering the electricity itself isn't the largest weighted line item.
"Our electricity has gone from being one of the cheapest in North America to one of the most expensive because our Liberal government has decided to move to full environmental mode and made some very poor decisions like paying farmers $.90 per kilowatt for solar and then selling it to the public for $0.12 and subsidizing the rest. Or shutting down our last coal plant, even though it was only used a few times a year, then signing a contract for a plant to replace it, then cancelling that contract at a cost of $1 billion because they wanted to win an election. Lots of dumb things."
I’m still keeping a close eye on the ultra short ETFs for gold. I think at some point we see gold crater like oil and nat gas. Keep GLL and DGLD on your radar
SPWR - The pause that refreshes? What will the public have to say when electric rates soar out of control? This I believe, is why INTC closed down their Santa Clara production fab.
SE - State of emergency for gas storage leaking for a couple months now, HAL's Boots & Coots still on the job but taking too long. This probably be considered in a national security plan, no? No regulatory safety requirements or backup plans, just inspectors standing around smiling and drinking coffee collecting a paycheck while disaster looms for decades.
Man there's a lot of negativity out there right now. I went back and looked more at how the market traded back in 1994 because there were some similarities back then to now. The market was trading at a similar valuation (17.3x TTM earnings vs 17.6 right now), the economy came out of a recession 3 years before then (I think we were in a recession in 2011), the economy and jobs market was doing well, and the Fed started raising rates. The differences are that the Fed surprised the market then and within 6 weeks the it was down 10%. The Fed has been giving the market the heads up for a long time now. The market really didn't do much from March 1993 until Feb 1995.
I think we have a similar, albeit longer, period of consolidation. I'm thinking 2-2.5 years of basically sideways trading...
One thing to note: gold dropped from about 410 to 250 in the late 90's after everyone realized the Fed hikes wouldn't slow down the economy. Gold trades super slow nonetheless so after looking at this more I think I might just exit the DGLD trade when I get a chance. Ultimately I think it takes out 1000 and heads to under $900. That's where I'm going to look for some miners for potentially a longer term hold.
Mark- We plan to re-tile the kitchen. Wife likes the prices on BuildDirect: http://www.builddirect.com/. As usual, I'm skeptical when it comes to competitive pricing and wonder how they're able to do it (lower grade materials, China sourcing, etc). What's your take?
2nd- I'm not very familiar with those discount product sites. You should rely on what your tile setter recommends. I can say this though... Not in my house!
When futures tank like they did at the open this afternoon that's intentional by a fairly large player for some reason. perhaps they get trapped but I think it's more about making some sort of point.
Now what? I see plenty of 'advice' from market gurus this morning. My plan? Stick to my trading rules. If positions are moving against me, I get right out. (If you're a long-term trader, you'll have a different set of rules. For instance, you may want to add on weakness this morning.) The worst decision a short-term trader can make at a time like this is to become a long-term trader.
Defense wins the game when trading. Make money when you can. More importantly, always protect what you have.
I might add that the reverse is also true. The worst decision a long-term trader can make at a time like this is to become a short-term trader. Stick to what works for you.
Maybe China can bring the markets down or maybe the US leads things upwards. Guy who sell electronics into China on TV last night saying as far as they see, the economy looks pretty good and no drops in demand and the crisis is really a financial one with the markets and Yuan.
We'll see - don't think China can do this, but didn't think the US housing market could crush things so badly in 2008 either.
China suspends circuit breaker rules. In my opinion, a 'game changer' that may stabilize their stock markets. What's my take? There is now a 50/50 chance we close in the green today. Just sayin'!
Opened CAF (China 'A' Shares) on this morning's -4% drop + RSX (Russia) on its -3% drop, both at new 52-wk lows. I see 'no fear' in bonds (TLT flat), which may confirm capitulation.
Update: China folds - CHINA SUSPENDS STOCK CIRCUIT BREAKER RULE
China Securities Regulatory Commission Suspends Stock Circuit Breaker Rule, CSRC Says on Weibo
According to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange messages, to safeguard the smooth operation of the market, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and Shenzhen Stock Exchange decided to suspend the implementation of the "Shenzhen Stock Exchange rules" provisions of Chapter VI of the "index since January 8, 2016 fuse "mechanism.
In addition, according to gold in the news, to maintain the smooth operation of the market, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Financial Futures Exchange decided since January 8, 2016, to suspend the implementation of the CSI 300, SSE 50, the CSI 500 stock index futures fuse system.
Chinese online travel leader Ctrip (CTRP -4.2%) is investing $180M in Indian online travel firm MakeMyTrip (NASDAQ:MMYT) via convertible bonds. The company has also been granted permission to make open-market purchases of MakeMyTrip shares. Between the convertible debt and stock purchases, Ctrip is allowed to have a stake of up to 26.6%.MakeMyTrip has soared on the news. Ctrip, which recently obtained a major stake in top Chinese rival Qunar from Baidu, is following U.S. and Chinese markets lower. The Shanghai composite fell 7% overnight.
EROS retested that low $7, who knows but something similar could happen? NFLX tenticles might actually benefit IF NFLX needs content? And that would be consistent with the smackdown phenon?
The other one in the smaller cap internet space that really intrigues me is BITA. You're buying into the horrible news surrounding China so lots of risk but that's when returns are highest.
FCAU - Complicated, but didn't they just raise a ton of cash? I mean, it might be trading near cash but there's debt to back out so interpreting the balance sheet is causing me confusion (balance sheets are not very straight forward, stuff gets hidden).
BRCM - I think it's interesting to note BRCM loaded up on AMD device engineering talent a couple years back. ie: AMD no longer has that talent in house.
SE - Who sells/makes the safety valves, there are probably a few thousand wells out there needing retrofit? Reminds me of BP during the spill except the mess just goes atmospheric. Proof the solution to pollution is dilution? So sad regulators weren't making certain the storage wells are safe, could've fixed this on the cheap before SHTF.
SPH - Well hell, still refuses to allow me a better add price... Waiting is the hardest part. CW - I see one of those 45 degree channels has formed... ROP - Wedge failed on schedule. But it was a nice run.
MLER - Wonder if the autonomous skycar is gonna crash land? The rotary engine segment seems to be attempting an IPO or something similar? I'td be great to see something positive come from OMC's Wankel technology, proving them right, and really cool if CW or ROP bought this out.
The long term charts definitely look like they have shifted from uptrend to potential downtrend. A break below the August lows should put the nail in the coffin.
What will work in this scenario? Shorts and long gold miners?
Party poopers in Asia.
ReplyDeleteChina down 6.8%. No biggie.
DeleteLooks like they halted trade.
Deletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-stocks-trading-halt-idUSKBN0UI0CU20160104
Mark - is that Harlan? He's growing up quickly.
ReplyDeleteI was just thinking the same thing, won't be long he'll be on the job site.
Deletehttp://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/24/what-am-i-thankful-for-the-next-5-minutes-joe-terranova-commentary.html
ReplyDeleteDid not know that about Joe. The good thing, if their is one, is that the liver can regenerate.
DeleteThe last part of December I have been thinking really hard at just working on my health this year and forget the market and come back and re-access in 2017. Hard to walk away, have not decided.
Family and your health is as good as it gets. Happy and Healthy to all.
You too, Tele! :)
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteNice work Mark! Way ahead of the average investor and the markets. Was a tough year to outperform.
ReplyDeleteI ended up be up 11.7% for 2015.
But that is Canadian $. When I look through my returns, my individual stocks were, on average, flat for the year, but I had moved about 60% of my money out of Canada the last few years when our dollar was high and got the benefit of that in 2015.
I think 2016, currency will be much less of a factor than 2016 and probably the Canadian dollar rises and will hurt my returns.
Here is what I limped into the new year with
ReplyDeleteBXMT
GILD
SLB
NDP
IEP
NEM
light positions in all, no time to be brave imo.
Last year ended slightly above flat, a lot of work for very little gain.
DeleteLooks like we get the worst start to the year in over 20 years today:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/worst-starts-to-the-year/
A bounce to a positive close would be a very strong sign for the 2016 markets.
FCAU / RACE split today.
ReplyDeleteDon't have the RACE stock yet, but plan to sell - hard for someone like me to hold a 30 p/e stock.
MLER is up 10%......
ReplyDeleteATI - Cheap enough yet?
ReplyDeleteSMP - That could've been the entry?
ReplyDeleteYes, that's Harlan but was this summer. Tried pretty hard this am to find anything crazy and nothing popped up.
ReplyDeleteLAKE - Closed that gap up, not much debt. Might be worth watching?
ReplyDeleteSYPR - I never heard of it, could be one of those background companies doing the actual work? Can 1300 employees be sufficient size to supply the market, I guess it could play a very important part.
ReplyDeleteTZA - See the September batman ears, notice the 2nd one was higher than the 1st....
ReplyDeleteSE - Perhaps everyone has gotten over the shock of learning gas storage wells need periodic maintenance and public regulators have been looking the other way (asleep at the wheel) for far too long?
ReplyDeleteI know I shouldn't continue to hold LABD but I do feel like XBI goes to $60. Tempting to take the gain here.
ReplyDeleteAlright sold some at $34.7
DeleteIt's working nicely, that's all that counts! :)
DeleteI don't like the chart though, so there's another huge positive!
DeleteI have just had some success lately shorting breakdowns of these bearish rising wedge patterns like you see in XBI.
Deletehttp://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/RisingWedge.gif
I made some good money a month or so ago buying ERY off the breakdown in XLE with the same exact pattern.
This may be something to consider going forward until it stops working.
ETP - See all that recent volume? Wonder if there's a message in there somewhere?
ReplyDeleteKEX - Man, I don't get it... You'd think a flooding Mississississippi would keep some towing vehicles under extended contract or something like that?
ReplyDeleteCORN - Must be plentiful, despite cultivation has pressured wild bee population habitat. Nice to know we need to grow corn for mixing with gasoline so nobody can make money off the decimated environment.
TORONTO — Ontarians who use natural gas to heat their homes and fuel appliances will get a break on the price starting in the new year.
ReplyDeleteIs this a market that actually works, surely not positive for shareholders if the utility is forced (allowed?) to pass savings along to consumers?
"The Ontario Energy Board has approved rate decreases for Enbridge Gas Distribution Inc. and Union Gas Ltd. effective Jan. 1, 2016.
The board says typical residential customers with Enbridge who use about 2,200 cubic metres of gas per year will see their bills fall by about $43 next year."
Not sure what the details of this last comment are, but higher prices for the remaining 30% who don't use gas should produce incentive?
Delete"The 30 per cent of Ontario homes that use electricity for heating, and every other hydro consumer, will see bills rise again on Jan. 1 because of changes to Liberal government energy programs."
Probably in the US, plentiful natty and propane are incentive for converting to pixie dust?
The way it works up here is nat gas utilities charge for the service and delivery, but the cost of the actual gas is basically a flow-through, but regulated by the government.
DeleteOut electricity has gone from being one of the cheapest in North America to one of the most expensive because our Liberal government has decided to move to full environmental mode and made some very poor decisions like paying farmers $.90 per kilowatt for solar and then selling it to the public for $0.12 and subsidizing the rest. Or shutting down our last coal plant, even though it was only used a few times a year, then signing a contract for a plant to replace it, then cancelling that contract at a cost of $1 billion because they wanted to win an election. Lots of dumb things.
I reopened positions in Emerging Markets + miners on December 29. Both positions moved against me the following day, and had I followed my usual trading rules I would have closed out immediately. I opted to hold given the tail wind seasonality provides, and in fact both positions closed modestly higher last Thursday. Obviously, we are seeing weakness across the board this morning, and I am exercising my trading rules here, no questions asked. EEM (emerging markets) is off -3%, but GDX (miners) is up +2%. All positions off, and now in cash.
ReplyDeleteI have no control over market movements. Whether or not prices move to my benefit is a calculated risk. The variables over which I have control:
(a) Whether to open a position.
(b) Entry price.
(c) Position size.
(d) Stop loss (exit price for positions that move against me) or trailing stops (price[s] at which to lock in gains).
My reaction to this morning's selloff? My bad? No. The trades were a calculated risk. One moved against me, the other was a gain. The only action over which I had control (but opted not to take) was to close all positions on December 30. I had a reason not to, but I'm also willing to accept responsibility for not having done the 'right thing.'
I was bullish on December 29, still bullish on December 30, even more bullish on December 31, and bearish today. The only opinion of the four that matters right now is that I'm bearish today. The past is irrelevant when trading. It's all about the present and the future. I may turn bullish heading into the close, or turn bullish tomorrow. Right now I'm bearish.
Took the rest of LABD off at $34.7 to $34.9.
ReplyDeleteI learned something new last week, but let me start by asking your opinions on a 30-yr fixed versus a 7-year IO (interest only).
ReplyDeleteI assume you are talking real estate loan.
DeleteI prefer 15 fixed due to amount of interest repaid compared to 30 year. But to really answer/comment on your question would require what you are wanting to do and your objectives. IO will require payoff or refi by the end of term.
In this environment, a 7 year IO is potentially a better option. Obviously more risk.
DeleteI've ALWAYS preferred a 30yr fixed, saved my butt a couple times while others suffered and lost with ARMS.
Delete(a) It's more difficult to qualify for an IO.
Delete(b) Most insiders (bankers, loan brokers) opt for an IO.
(c) If you know what you're doing, and are able to handle a balloon payment at the end of term (most refi before then), an IO is the better deal. You can use the extra cash to pay down the principal (simultaneously lowering future IO payments), and probably pay off your mortgage sooner.
BOX - Barely scratched. This puppy is going up, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteThe assumption with this one is that Dropbox's valuation is legit. Also I think they will end up getting bought. I use Dropbox a lot and I know of a lot of people that do. Box is more of a corporate play on cloud storage. Chart is a little suspect to me because it looks it is setting up more like a rising wedge which as I mentioned above has been a good pattern to short but I actually don't think the valuation is that crazy at about 5x sales.
DeleteAnyways, I would favor being long vs short this company if I had to choose just because cloud storage is in a long term bull market and they seem to be one of the best options out there as a play on that.
Also, it seems to me that the rising wedge pattern has been working if there is a strong fundamental reason for further price declines (ie oil / commodities glut or ridiculous valuation).
DeleteI agree re: Rising Wedge, not a good pattern of late (and probably not a good sign in general).
DeleteI'm watching $102 for NFLX as a trade. Retest of the panic lows on the Paris terrorist selloff. Probably wishful thinking.
ReplyDeleteBack in BITA at $26.33
Another one I'm watching closely is TRUP. I think they're a buyout target. They offer insurance for pets. Nice recurring revenue model. They're projecting breakeven cash flow this year.
ReplyDeleteWould love to see this back to $8.40 or so.
DeleteThat's certainly the mechanism corporate America has chosen for creating growth, isn't it?
DeleteMan, I can't think of the ticker for the freon recycler I was following, my memory is failing.
HDSN?
DeleteLong EROS at $8.83.
ReplyDeleteSold at $8.9. Sold BITA at $26.5. 4 winning trades to start the year. Have a good day fellas. I'm done for the day.
DeleteNWPX claims to have no debt as well, and trading at 1/2 book. Solar cells don't require irrigation although crops might, in arid conditions?
ReplyDelete"Iran is rising" - Former mid-east negotiator.
ReplyDeleteLet's all buy this dip! Before we do, let's consider:
ReplyDelete(a) How will investors in China respond on Tuesday to the trading halts imposed Monday on all three exchanges?
(b) The last time US markets sold off, the algos fired off buy programs. What if they instead fired off shorts last week, and plan to cash in by accelerating an overdue decline?
Fools rush in, and were rewarded each and every time in 2015. Think it over.
Gotta say that gdxj / GDX both look really really good.
ReplyDeleteTough to balance this with concern about gold prices in general. Perhaps shorting gold and buying the miners is a good trade right here.
DeleteTough to do this on a day like today after making several good moves entering the year but I decided to buy GDXJ and GDX after a big move up today. Also bought some NUGT to help juice the return a little bit. Long GDX at $14.12, GDXJ at $19.89, and NUGT at $26.32.
ReplyDeleteI think there could be a significant January effect in these stocks this year. We're talking a 4-5 year bear market and the sector as a whole is down 80% or so from highs in 2011. They have been consolidating for the past 5-6 months and there's generally a move back up for these beaten down sectors in January. Sentiment is pathetic. I'll use a move below last week's lows as an area to close my position. Tomorrow will be a key day for these. If they're ready to move then tomorrow they continue on today's gains.
These types of trades are often the hardest ones to take for a variety of reasons. For me, I will know quickly if I'm right. If they gap down tomorrow then the trade isn't ready yet. But I think we're very close to this trade working.
DeleteMCD - Chines flocking to MCD?
ReplyDeletehttp://forexdavico.com/2016/01/02/chinas-homeless-find-shelter-under-mcdonalds-golden-arches/
CL - Closed that little gap up from first October.
ReplyDelete"Cage Free" - What does that mean exactly, does it involve indoor living quarters? If yes, I guess that's good for propane sales.
ReplyDeleteCMG - I thought it looked expensive...
ReplyDeleteI hate their food. Never understood the hype. I'd rather Qdoba (owned by JACK)
DeleteI haven't been to CMG, someone was trying to get me to take them (had to turn around and go other direction) and I passed in favor of taking them (and myself) home, lol.
DeleteI've had their burritos brought to me and they favor comparably to something I might make myself, it's not easy to maintain that variety of ingredients in the fridge.
I'll keep my eyes peeled for a Qdoba.
Yahoo paved paradise in Santa Clara and put up a 48 acre $100M parking lot?
ReplyDeleteENOC - Old Uncle Enoch has been, sucking wind.
ReplyDeleteLOL, I'm overall green today and shock of shockers my CENX position (still underwater of course) is one of them. Huh?
ReplyDeleteI'm glad my bud asked me what I thought of YHOO a couple weeks ago, I told him I wasn't keen on a company that can't get traction. YHOO should buy Kirby vacuum cleaners or something, change is good.
Too funny. I only lost about .25% so I'll call that green!
DeleteSo Chinese companies are interested in $US denominated debt? I guess that's probably a great idea assuming the $US isn't going on a multi-year tear.
ReplyDeleteI guess the US-FED is helping to arrange this for China, we seem to bendover backwards for them.
APD looks pretty good. I worked with these guys, they were the only company that could supply one of our needs in the US (ClF3, an incendiary material).
ReplyDeletePSEC - Any thoughts on the recent volume activity? I'm thinking it looks quite positive when combined with price action.
ReplyDeleteIs anyone calling for a 20%+ rally in gold?
ReplyDeleteTop of page currently, ZH:
Delete"Gold Bullion’s 2016 Upleg Posted by: GoldCore Post date: 01/04/2016 - 15:09
Gold is poised to rebound dramatically this year, mean reverting out of its recent deep secular lows."
Let me rephrase that. Anyone with any credibility calling for a 20%+ rally?
DeletePGR - Chart looks pretty good, eh? One of our auto insurance policies increased by 9% from the last renewal 6 mos ago.
ReplyDeleteHate is a strong word for a burrito.
ReplyDeletePerhaps if it has a "gamey" taste?
DeleteDoes loathe work?
DeleteIf it makes you gag, either word. IMO
DeleteHere come the Japanese:
ReplyDelete"Panasonic planning global push in police cameras, Nikkei says"
SEDG added to GS conviction buy list. That's amazing for a co. that small. To me that's a huge negative to ENPH.
ReplyDeleteCurious timing on these upgrades. FSLR near the $75 level and they upgrade. Probably means some consolidation is in order at least.
DeleteIs FSLR the supplier partner for SCTY? Thought they were... I guess SPWR is a decent play from a solar farm perspective, no sure if solar farms will have AC or SC panels? The ITC, is it specific for residential?
DeleteiPhone 6 production cut. Stock was hinting this for a while
ReplyDeleteAAPL getting hit by the law of large numbers and products becoming commoditized. Think it has a tough year.
DeleteI agree.
DeleteI didn't realize how significant of a break down yesterday was for a lot of stocks. What worked well yesterday and the past month? SNE comes to mind as one that is starting to base out. I know retailers did well. Could be yet another rotation but stuff I follow like EXPE, SBUX, airlines broke down out of the shorter term trendlines they had.
ReplyDeleteLot of companies getting cheaper though too. I don't think we see a recession, so usually these are buying opportunities. Stocks like UNC, UTX, WMT, GPS, MET, AEG all at pretty low valuations.
DeleteI'm torn between putting some money into these larger stocks and going more into small caps. Don't have a good feeling as to which should perform better in 2016.
I'm still thinking we will see a better opportunity later in the year. But I intend to only swing at really fat pitches this year. I ended up with my worst year in a long time. Down 15.6%. Expected given I averaged over 100+% for 6 years in a row thanks to a huge once in a generation bull market. Had my chance to have a solid year but ignored my own advice (shorting biotechs in July).
DeleteThe only fat pitch I see right now from the long side is Gold miners but that will change I'm sure.
I'd give yourself more credit for that kind of return - it is exceptional and very rare.
DeletePlus the bull market wasn't a "once in a generation" event. Look back at the 1990's, especially the late 1990's when we were +20% or higher 5 years in a row. And 2011 was pretty tough I thought.
More likely, I think it means the market cycle is changing and what was working has stopped so we need to figure out what will work for the next few years. Might be large caps, probably more value-oriented stocks, maybe something else. Think high-yielders and aggressive growth (social media, biotech) are out.
Yeah it's a very tricky market, no doubt about it. In the prior 6 years I felt like I could just throw out any trade and it would eventually come back. Right now, there's a good chance that won't ever come back and there's very little continuity from one day to the next. Being patient is huge right now.
DeleteMy disclaimer on gold miners is that the longer they hang out here the odds favor them collapsing and dropping like nat gas did recently. Accepting (vs rejecting) lower prices is usually a recipe for another leg lower. If the market can get out of this funk it's in then I'd have to imagine gold goes a good deal lower. That would drop the miners obviously.
I've actually decided to go out and get a job and just bide my time until the next bull market comes along. I have a feeling we could be in this kind of a market for a couple more years where we make marginal new highs then give it back. I guess it could make for some good range trading but that's tough especially for me because I generally make the majority of my gains on smaller cap stuff that require a trending market.
DeleteI actually talked myself out of GDXJ / GDX. Sold those for small losses.
ReplyDeleteWow. There was quite a mini panic in banks recently. I didn't realize BAC had fallen to $16.4. I picked some up after hours at $16.45.
ReplyDeleteFIT going full on GPRO?
ReplyDeleteYeah I was thinking of shorting it at $30
DeleteQCOM - I've been looking over WIFI routers, seems many of them have QCOM chips in them. Partial sample.
ReplyDeleteVery funny:
ReplyDeleteEddy Elfenbein @EddyElfenbein 3h3 hours ago
I don't understand the need for longer tweets. Personally, 140 characters is plenty. I can easily fit what I have to say in a
EPD - That insider purchase might just light a fire.
ReplyDeleteQCOM and BAC - 2 more stocks that have gotten cheap. QCOM fwd p/e under 10 and BAC at 10 with p/b 0.73.
ReplyDeleteBAC basing for 2 years now and back where it was over 5 years ago. QCOM back where it was 5 years ago.
Hard to know what will turn this market around, but it may end up being that valuations just get too cheap.
This is the concern I've had most: that people continue to lose money and are unwilling to pay up for stocks and multiples grind down.
DeleteI think we grind lower and have good opportunities later in the year. But I think its tradeable as it heads lower. Maybe we get 100 point drops in the S&P followed by 80 point pops. I'm buying some SPY today.
CPAC - Interesting, this one's doing comparatively well.
ReplyDeleteUSCR has come off some though, so there's hope.
Like a ball from a cannon, or a hydrogen bomb.
ReplyDeleteVMC - I look at this chart and think to myself about how one FED guru walking his dog in Boston looked up and was alarmed by his count of cranes erected.
ReplyDelete"Match Group is the worldwide leader in online dating products in terms of revenue, monthly active users, and paid members."
ReplyDeleteThey forgot STDs as well
DeleteI wish I was at CES 2016 in Vegas.
ReplyDeleteMe too, anything of particular interest? I transferred my vinyl onto VHS HI-FI years ago for "preservation", specs are better than CD and it's pure analog.
DeleteI used a JVC machine FWIW, they developed the format and this machine was my best performer of several.
DeleteAAPL at $100 seems like a target. No, I don't believe there's a 30% cutback. I don't trust Jeffries though.
ReplyDeleteSelf driving cars made by ISIS? I preferred the 72 year old virgin theme.
BTU - Republican (Trump) election win?
I've been waiting for AAPL (Apple) to retest its August 24 lows (during the ETF 'Crash'). Trading range that day was 92-108. It's @ 101 right now, and I'm in!
ReplyDeleteGood luck. I remember trying to buy it at $95 that day but the Ameritrade system was frozen and I couldn't reach them by phone.
DeleteThe way the market is acting, I think it will have to be the value guys who stop the decline - the traders who say "I don't know where stock xxx will bottom, but I'm confident buying at this valuation, it will be much higher in 3 years".
ReplyDeleteIt actually usually is the value guys who stop a decline, unless we have a 2008/2009 situation, and then they get in too early and the traders look for spike down bottom.
Guess I should have held LABD and GDX / GDXJ
ReplyDeleteI bought some stuff premarket. Looking for a bounce in /ES to breakeven on the year. We are in a downtrend channel right now and it hit the bottom this morning at 1971.
ReplyDeleteWonder why there aren't any Muslums in the presidential race?
ReplyDeleteLC - Ouch, retesting support area. With the fantastic employment stats peeps don't need to borrow short term.
ReplyDeleteI could make the case for 16% total return with DIS stock right here over the next 5 years. Here's what I'm assuming:
ReplyDeleteOperating Income Growth of 15% per year (avg of past 10 years)
35% tax Rate
Shares shrink by 2% per year (avg of past 10 years)
1.2% dividend yield
I'm finding more and more of these types of plays - great companies that you can calculate good returns but not enough to get me really excited (ie 25%+ returns). My hope is that the market slowly grinds its way lower until about mid year, maybe a little later, and stuff like this, CAKE, and some others that I can rationalize 16% returns on end up being 20-25% returns.
Realistically on a stock like DIS, the lowest it might go is the low $80s which is a drop of 33% from the peak but puts it at 16x EPS assuming the EPS estimate for this year is too high by 10%. That would yield a 20% annual return assuming the above inputs.
DeleteI'm using DIS because to me it's one of the best companies in the world right now and it should be trading at an above market multiple. I think it supports the view that the market isn't that overvalued. If DIS was trading at 30x EPS and you could only rationalize a 3-5% total return over the next 5 years using aggressive assumptions then I would agree. But DIS is at 17.8x EPS estimates for this year and potential 16% total return over the next 5 years using normal inputs for growth / shares reduction.
DeleteI guess if you believe most of the "bad" news is priced into markets, 16% isn't terrible? To me, it depends on circumstances going forward. Would a top in $US provide some relief in terms of tourism or is DIS distributed such that wouldn't matter?
DeleteI guess if stateside oil production craters then oil money resumes back to Saudi Arabia helping to offset or reverse their deficit spending, consider Saudi's are substantial customers of US military contractors?
Obviously something's going on we're not privy to, as usual.
Yeah I'm using the past 10 years averages which does include a nasty recession but also a low dollar throughout. Domestic revenues are about 75% of total. Iger did mention back in August that the strong dollar would hurt their earnings
DeleteENPH - Keeps retesting $3.14, successfully. Looks like a money pump.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - 300 shares traded, down considerably at this point.
ReplyDeleteFalling rates fear I think - most rates down today.
DeleteIf I was to say "I don't expect rates can fall much further" Would this be consistent with lenders becoming progressively more cautious?
DeleteThankfully, RBA is crashing with everything else meaning of course there's no increased equipment and tooling liquidation in the forecast.
URG - This thing just keeps rocking, at a time I thought nuclear power is off the table?
ReplyDeleteSPWR - Last chance for (STD-free) romance?
ReplyDeleteWe're doing great, buy the dips (assuming you're a lying-ass moron)!
ReplyDelete"Standard & Poor’s slashed the credit ratings of 112 corporations around the globe to default (D) or selective default (SD) in 2015, according to S&P Capital IQ Global Credit. The highest number of global defaults since nightmare-year 2009, when a previously unthinkable 268 companies defaulted, and not far behind the second highest default tally of 125, in 2008.
The oil & gas sector led with 29 defaulters (26% of the total). Metals, mining, and steel followed with 17 defaulters (15% of the total). The consumer products sector and the bank sectors tied for the third place, each with 13 defaulters (12% of the total)."
Was my personal worst year for bankruptcies with 2 of my small energy companies going down.
DeleteGot caught in the thought that they had such good leverage for the rebound in oil, but it never came.
This isn't a new phenomenon, it's a repeat phenomenon. Just as PMs crashed in 2008/9 they will again this time IMO. The $US remains the least risky currency as global econ slows down (Economic slowing is consistent with environmentally conscious policies. Auto manufacturing is probably a necessary evil not terribly green, considering the environmental loading?).
DeleteI've mentioned the environment consequences of economic growth several times yet there haven't been ANY responces, am I conversing with mouth breathers or a few stubborn guys who prefer to make the market do what they want?
Yes, it's possible solar is net environmentally positive but there really hasn't been indepth discussion here, could be solar is just a staged distraction.
I'm pretty sure nuclear power is net GHG friendly, there are tradeoffs energy still isn't quite free last I checked but comes close sometimes, now already twice in the past decade.
TAXI - Looks like an inverted cup? Remember when there was a time taxi drivers had to be licensed and bonded, not just any Joe Camel driving around in an EV?
ReplyDeleteDon't get me wrong, I'm all for entrepreneurship, but our government(s) required these guys join this market and now chose to change the rules?
I think stocks like DIS will provide a floor in the market due to their valuations. Can only go down so much unless we have a recession or big rise in rates.
ReplyDeleteHow does $US continuing to lift impact this idea? FWIW, I'm unconvinced we ever really exited recession for any substantial period aside from allowing insiders to offload assets (similar to stock buybacks theme) but I'm unconcerned about my opinion b/c it's mine personally and belongs to me only.
Delete"Iger did mention back in August that the strong dollar would hurt their earnings"
DeleteIf I wanted to buy DIS, I'd look into it more to see how much of their revenue and profits come out of the US.
But, I almost bought DIS back in 2011 in the high $20's, so have a really tough time paying $100 now, so not interested. Plus, I'm not a not a big TMT fan because of the requirement to follow trends more than I want to, so need a great deal to step in, not just a good one.
I remember when DIS got to about 15 when the Bass brothers sold out their position just about marked the low.
DeleteSo I guess what I'm saying is what so magical about $80?
Nothing magical about $80. I just used that as a spot where it would be trading at 16x EPS assuming EPS stays flat for 2016...and it also would be a spot where the estimated total annual return over the next 5 years would be 20%.
DeleteOK, thanks.
DeleteBTW, people would kill for the returns you had over the last 6 years.
Interesting set of charts from JP Morgan - http://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-1q-2016-markets-guide-2016-1
ReplyDeleteInteresting points:
- odds of bear market are low given none of normal causes in place
- real estate has done exceptionally well over the last 20 years, even with the crash, with REIT's outperforming the S&P 500; Question is whether this can continue (is there a structural advantage to real estate investing) or should stocks outperform the next decade?
Supposedly there's a lack of housing, not sure what or who is worthy of belief. All I can say is it does appear prices have risen considerably and my old wise friend tells me home sales in DC area aren't robust as the media has been claiming.
DeleteI know I wouldn't invest in housing in Canada as the ROI as prices are still high (we never had a correction) and ROI's aver very low. I've thought about going into industrial/commercial, but think it all gets dragged down if housing falls apart.
DeleteI mentioned back in August or September that there was heaving insider selling amongst all of the home builders.
DeleteIf S&P follows the 2011 scenario, then the decline should take it to the middle of the range we saw in September, i.e. to around 194.
ReplyDeletebetter hold 1860
DeleteSeasonality wise gold till almost end of FEB, and silver till mid April.
ReplyDeleteCommodities continuing the smash from last year, ugly.
BXE - FWIW, I'm pretty sure this one is worth zero, the powers that be are interested in driving it into receivership so they can take it over.
ReplyDelete"A family making $69k cannot really afford a $30k car (near half annual income)."
ReplyDeleteNMM - Lol, just a couple days ago my position was in the black, not so anymore! I guess the global economy is being slowed down on purpose (makes it easier to reach GHG reduction quota).
ReplyDeleteYINN - A lot more volume today, not convinced it's positive.
ReplyDeleteTCK $3.51, wow man...
ReplyDeleteSo where is that "rip-your-face-off" rally that Jeff Saut was promising???
ReplyDeleteIt ripped his face off. He did say I think last week that he was wrong. I like his honesty when it comes to making bad calls.
DeleteIf GDX rises above $14.5, then a medium-term uptrend will be established, IMO, and I'll buy more calls so as to play that uptrend "on the way up."
ReplyDeleteWow man, that's worse than a nightmare but the same kind of crap that goes on here. Yeah, probably 90% of my electric bill involves the service itself but I'm no sure any of that really is tax despite it's called tax I think it goes to the power company and they of course maintain the lines, etc. otherwise they couldn't deliver. If I call them and inquire they claim it's an authorized tax but I know better. So solar also has line maintenance so explain how costs can go down by using solar and you KNOW utilities aren't about to just go out without a fight and allow rooftop, despite if they were to do that YOU still get to pay for infrastructure so where's the beef? Geothermal would at least cut down the amount consumed by those who are all electric but I haven't put a pencil to how much really considering the electricity itself isn't the largest weighted line item.
ReplyDelete"Our electricity has gone from being one of the cheapest in North America to one of the most expensive because our Liberal government has decided to move to full environmental mode and made some very poor decisions like paying farmers $.90 per kilowatt for solar and then selling it to the public for $0.12 and subsidizing the rest. Or shutting down our last coal plant, even though it was only used a few times a year, then signing a contract for a plant to replace it, then cancelling that contract at a cost of $1 billion because they wanted to win an election. Lots of dumb things."
GGN - Buy this and collect a dividend if you really believe in gold miners?
ReplyDeletePowered by MITK
ReplyDeleteI bought NFLX this morning and sold at $109.9, literally right before it spiked.
ReplyDeleteThey just started service in 13 countries today, I just heard.
DeleteI’m still keeping a close eye on the ultra short ETFs for gold. I think at some point we see gold crater like oil and nat gas. Keep GLL and DGLD on your radar
ReplyDeleteI bought some DGLD today at $86.22.
DeleteTake a look at this 5 year chart:
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_47733285.jpg?1452117516
SPWR - The pause that refreshes? What will the public have to say when electric rates soar out of control? This I believe, is why INTC closed down their Santa Clara production fab.
ReplyDeleteSE - State of emergency for gas storage leaking for a couple months now, HAL's Boots & Coots still on the job but taking too long. This probably be considered in a national security plan, no? No regulatory safety requirements or backup plans, just inspectors standing around smiling and drinking coffee collecting a paycheck while disaster looms for decades.
Man there's a lot of negativity out there right now. I went back and looked more at how the market traded back in 1994 because there were some similarities back then to now. The market was trading at a similar valuation (17.3x TTM earnings vs 17.6 right now), the economy came out of a recession 3 years before then (I think we were in a recession in 2011), the economy and jobs market was doing well, and the Fed started raising rates. The differences are that the Fed surprised the market then and within 6 weeks the it was down 10%. The Fed has been giving the market the heads up for a long time now. The market really didn't do much from March 1993 until Feb 1995.
ReplyDeleteI think we have a similar, albeit longer, period of consolidation. I'm thinking 2-2.5 years of basically sideways trading...
One thing to note: gold dropped from about 410 to 250 in the late 90's after everyone realized the Fed hikes wouldn't slow down the economy. Gold trades super slow nonetheless so after looking at this more I think I might just exit the DGLD trade when I get a chance. Ultimately I think it takes out 1000 and heads to under $900. That's where I'm going to look for some miners for potentially a longer term hold.
Reopened VEIEX (Vanguard Emerging Markets) at the close.
ReplyDeleteDJIA off -341 points at the intraday low. Closed off -252 points. In my opinion, major win for the bulls.
ReplyDeleteWas it North Korea? I think it's simply a market that wants to go down.
ReplyDeleteIt could get worse, but right now I'd have a harder time sleeping at night if I was short. Nothing like waking up to a massive short squee
ze....
DeleteWasn't NK, I'm pretty sure nothing to do with them except they'd like to think so and are being placated?
DeleteMark- We plan to re-tile the kitchen. Wife likes the prices on BuildDirect: http://www.builddirect.com/. As usual, I'm skeptical when it comes to competitive pricing and wonder how they're able to do it (lower grade materials, China sourcing, etc). What's your take?
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Volume picking up, odd it's resulting in a lower price.
ReplyDeleteAustralian Building Approvals (Nov) Y/Y -8.40%% vs. Exp. 3.90%
ReplyDeleteFutures tanking again. This is becoming reminiscent of January 2008
ReplyDeleteCan you post a chart about 3 months either side of Jan 2008? Another leg down this quickly would really cause me to wonder.
Delete2nd- I'm not very familiar with those discount product sites. You should rely on what your tile setter recommends. I can say this though... Not in my house!
ReplyDeleteWhen futures tank like they did at the open this afternoon that's intentional by a fairly large player for some reason. perhaps they get trapped but I think it's more about making some sort of point.
ReplyDeleteChina halts trading within 15 minutes, prompted by a -7% drop in the Shanghai Composite.
ReplyDeleteDJIA futures -413 points. SPX futures -2.5%. EEM -3% in premarket trading.
Now what? I see plenty of 'advice' from market gurus this morning. My plan? Stick to my trading rules. If positions are moving against me, I get right out. (If you're a long-term trader, you'll have a different set of rules. For instance, you may want to add on weakness this morning.) The worst decision a short-term trader can make at a time like this is to become a long-term trader.
Defense wins the game when trading. Make money when you can. More importantly, always protect what you have.
I might add that the reverse is also true. The worst decision a long-term trader can make at a time like this is to become a short-term trader. Stick to what works for you.
DeleteLooks like another fun day in the 2016 markets.
ReplyDeleteMaybe China can bring the markets down or maybe the US leads things upwards. Guy who sell electronics into China on TV last night saying as far as they see, the economy looks pretty good and no drops in demand and the crisis is really a financial one with the markets and Yuan.
We'll see - don't think China can do this, but didn't think the US housing market could crush things so badly in 2008 either.
Added QQQ in my 2nd account.
ReplyDeleteChina suspends circuit breaker rules. In my opinion, a 'game changer' that may stabilize their stock markets. What's my take? There is now a 50/50 chance we close in the green today. Just sayin'!
ReplyDeleteOpened CAF (China 'A' Shares) on this morning's -4% drop + RSX (Russia) on its -3% drop, both at new 52-wk lows. I see 'no fear' in bonds (TLT flat), which may confirm capitulation.
Update: China folds - CHINA SUSPENDS STOCK CIRCUIT BREAKER RULE
DeleteChina Securities Regulatory Commission Suspends Stock Circuit Breaker Rule, CSRC Says on Weibo
According to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange messages, to safeguard the smooth operation of the market, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and Shenzhen Stock Exchange decided to suspend the implementation of the "Shenzhen Stock Exchange rules" provisions of Chapter VI of the "index since January 8, 2016 fuse "mechanism.
In addition, according to gold in the news, to maintain the smooth operation of the market, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Financial Futures Exchange decided since January 8, 2016, to suspend the implementation of the CSI 300, SSE 50, the CSI 500 stock index futures fuse system.
Happy Chinese New Year
MOG was talking about this the other day...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.maritime-executive.com/article/rare-involuntary-bankruptcy-filings-rising-in-oil-and-offshore
Last time I heard from MOG, he said to buy NBL
DeleteMMYT, someone hear still own it?
ReplyDeleteUgh I wish
DeleteMaybe the question should be: someone buying it?
DeleteChinese online travel leader Ctrip (CTRP -4.2%) is investing $180M in Indian online travel firm MakeMyTrip (NASDAQ:MMYT) via convertible bonds. The company has also been granted permission to make open-market purchases of MakeMyTrip shares. Between the convertible debt and stock purchases, Ctrip is allowed to have a stake of up to 26.6%.MakeMyTrip has soared on the news. Ctrip, which recently obtained a major stake in top Chinese rival Qunar from Baidu, is following U.S. and Chinese markets lower. The Shanghai composite fell 7% overnight.
DeleteEROS retested that low $7, who knows but something similar could happen? NFLX tenticles might actually benefit IF NFLX needs content? And that would be consistent with the smackdown phenon?
DeleteThe other one in the smaller cap internet space that really intrigues me is BITA. You're buying into the horrible news surrounding China so lots of risk but that's when returns are highest.
DeleteFCAU - Complicated, but didn't they just raise a ton of cash? I mean, it might be trading near cash but there's debt to back out so interpreting the balance sheet is causing me confusion (balance sheets are not very straight forward, stuff gets hidden).
ReplyDeleteBRCM - I think it's interesting to note BRCM loaded up on AMD device engineering talent a couple years back. ie: AMD no longer has that talent in house.
ReplyDelete3COM - BTW, whatever happened to 3COM?
FRO - High of day now.
ReplyDeleteSE - Who sells/makes the safety valves, there are probably a few thousand wells out there needing retrofit? Reminds me of BP during the spill except the mess just goes atmospheric. Proof the solution to pollution is dilution? So sad regulators weren't making certain the storage wells are safe, could've fixed this on the cheap before SHTF.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Have to think today might be a good entry, although China wows seem not to have peaked.
ReplyDeleteSPH - Well hell, still refuses to allow me a better add price... Waiting is the hardest part.
ReplyDeleteCW - I see one of those 45 degree channels has formed...
ROP - Wedge failed on schedule. But it was a nice run.
MLER - Wonder if the autonomous skycar is gonna crash land? The rotary engine segment seems to be attempting an IPO or something similar? I'td be great to see something positive come from OMC's Wankel technology, proving them right, and really cool if CW or ROP bought this out.
CPAC - Peruvian cement in 45 degree channel? Do solar farms need cement to keep from blowing away in the wind?
ReplyDeleteMarc Faber doing his rounds on the networks = bottom (short term at least) is at hand.
ReplyDeleteThe long term charts definitely look like they have shifted from uptrend to potential downtrend. A break below the August lows should put the nail in the coffin.
ReplyDeleteWhat will work in this scenario? Shorts and long gold miners?
CYD - p/s is 0.18, not much debt and a pretty good divy, if you can trust China enuff to put your ballz out there.
ReplyDeleteBID - Forming a hammer. Still too expensive vs risk of insider raping shareholders, IMO.
ReplyDeleteChina is in much worse shape today than 2008, right?
ReplyDeletePer Ryan D this is the worst 4 day start to a year in 119 years. Adding QQQ in 3rd account.
ReplyDeleteOf course it figures about 3 weeks ago I started taking large QQQ/SPY positions for the first time. Down about 5% on each.