I'm probably about 40% long now. ENPH back below my first sale as well. Although GS giving SEDG a conviction buy is mind blowing to me so probably it's by by micro's for a while.
Overnight And Overseas – Shanghai was up the Dow equivalent of 300 points amid rumors that the government was a big, big buyer of stocks. Separately, and more importantly they marked the yuan higher. European markets opened higher but gave back most gains by midday. Gold is softer and oil is mixed.
But it did double in the 2.5 years before that and got to a very expensive valuation - I remember reading it was something like the highest valuation for small caps ever or the highest spread between small caps and large caps ever.
So, being optimistic, we could say, we had a great run, now it's been consolidating for a few years getting ready for the next move upwards. Pessimistically, it's topped out.
“Under my plan … electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.”
This means economic contraction, "necessarily", according to experts.
"Electricity would need to be produced for no more than four cents per kWh, and liquid fuels would need to be produced for less than $20 per barrel of oil equivalent."
When I was much younger, this is something I was warned would occur "necessarily" in my lifetime and it has stuck with me ever since.
Wild ride today. I actually knew that this was going to happen but I should have traded it.
I've decided to stick with long SPY / short GLD for now, through leveraged ETFS (SPXL / DGLD). I'm tempted to buy some more BAC (have a tiny position) but I think I'll just stick with SPY.
Also holding a small piece of BITA and am tempted to buy a starting position in MMYT.
I think Gold craters fairly soon, especially if we get out of this China funk.
Bought a starter position in GPS (GAP Stores) down 14% today.
Sub-10 p/e, good yield and balance sheet. Cutting bad stores and moving more stuff online. Down today on bad Old Navy sales, but the guy running it very well left last year, so they are in a bit of a transition there and I think they can get it back on track.
Management is shareholder friendly and about 40% family ownership, so take good care of things.
Wouldn't be surprised if it fell more the next couple days as downgrades came out, so may be early, but a pretty good price either way.
Brent - pay close attention to inventory levels. I was looking at the retail space a couple of weeks ago and saw that JWN's inventories had exploded over the past few years. Perhaps what we're seeing is like an inventory recession?
That is one of the knocks against GPS is that they have poor inventory control and just send stuff to stores. But they've spent the last couple of years putting in new systems to address this and will be be able to better direct inventory to where it sells better, shorten new product cycles, better fulfill eCommerce, etc.
I think they are a smart company and hope this system is successful in addressing thing. If not, could be a long drawn out recovery.
CSV - Feeling out of touch over here, considering laws and regulations seem to be majorly under constant unforgiving flux the past half decade, do you guys know if home cremations are now legal?
$US is pretty strong, you must be preparing for $CAD to gain some strength about now? I don't know what might change, but would be about time, sheesh....
Concerning being burned at the stake and taking a page from the WS playbook, obviously it's best to beg forgiveness as opposed to asking permission. Desperate times, desperate measures....
The Cdn $ is undervalued on a purchasing parity basis, but it does trade with the price of oil, so I think we need to see a bounce there to turn the Cdn $.
AMZN - I think there's no argument anymore that AMZN has taken a large advantage of internet commerce and who wouldn't rather shop in their undies anytime of day such as after midnight for instance than be subjected to fishbreath, slipping in barf or even BO after having driven to a hard to reach local (I hear traffic is thick everywhere)?
ISIL must be the fringe armed leg of ISIS, let's not confuse this insulting Saudi Arabia.
Reminds me, I checked at WMT and wow, wow, wow it's gonna cost me a fortune to target practice my 30-30 Winchester, so better get a deadly laser site instead....
The current fixation of global financial markets on China has blinded investors to the discounting of assets, including Canadian stocks, David Rosenberg, chief economist with Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., said in a note.
The recent decline of investor sentiment globally has amplified Canada’s slide by dragging down oil and commodity prices, the Canadian dollar and Canadian stocks relative to U.S. stocks. On all counts, the cumulative downside qualifies as “two-standard-deviation moves,” which have less than 5-per-cent probability.
“This could mean a buying opportunity is in the making – not a screaming buying opportunity, mind you, but a sign that it could be time to shift exposure north of the border,” Mr. Rosenberg said in the Friday edition of his daily economic newsletter Breakfast with Dave.
The turmoil in China’s financial markets and concerns about the vulnerability of the global economy have gripped investors in a volatile start to the year, which qualifies as the worst on record by some measures.
“Much technical damage has been done and the rupture has shaved $4-trillion out of the global market for equities just this week,” Mr. Rosenberg said.
The volatility gauge known as the VIX rose by 37 per cent this week through to Thursday’s close, nearly the entire high-yield bond market is trading below par, and commodities in aggregate have been driven down to 17-year lows, he said.
Excluding the U.S., the global stock market has entered official bear market territory.
But even in the U.S., “there is carnage beneath the surface,” Mr. Rosenberg said. “More than four in five stocks on the S&P 1500 are down 10 per cent or more – so clearly in corrective mode.”
But the vagaries of the Chinese stock market have little to say about the fate of the U.S. economy, he said, characterizing the global reaction as potential “irrational pessimism.”
“I sense that investors are sitting on cash today and waiting for some bell to ring,” he said. Longer-term investors “are going to wish they started to chip away now that the panic selling has set in.”
“This time last year, all I heard was how everything was too expensive and there was nothing to buy. Today we have a smorgasbord of asset classes and geographies cheapening up dramatically and all I see are deer in the headlights.”
“Isn’t this what value investors were waiting for a year ago?”
Very nice discussion on China on Charlie Rose tonight, plus interview about Tht Revenant which runs first. Both segments are very interesting.
A discussion about turmoil in Chinese financial markets with Gillian Tett and Henry McVey. "The Revenant," a new film based on the novel by Michael Punke. Charlie is joined by the film’s director, Alejandro González Iñárritu and actor, Leonardo DiCaprio.
I've been thinking for past year that we have nowhere to go but down in home prices. Retailers over stocked their stores, iPhone market is saturated, some say same with autos. Energy was oversupplied, same with mining industry, based on endless Chinese supply.
This all could just be a big inventory overbuild that will take a couple of years to work down
Meb faber did a report a year or so ago about how industries / countries down 3 years in a row tend to have big years after that. Gold has been down 4 years in a row.
Could be gold / gold miners time to shine, pun intended
"Record crushing results" What has thrown me off is insider selling, what would possess them to sell perhaps is future outlook isn't quite so lucrative? Consider for instance, Bombardier receiving bailout from Canadian government, seem like there's just too much capacity (in a general sense) vs demand for so many products, services and manufactured goods even prices of services is becoming pressured?
I dunno, I'm trying to figure this out and some amount of dialog is my mechanism.
China appears to be in trouble thus perhaps we can anticipate further slowing (in a general sense), some sectors might actually have bottomed or near bottom, such as retail? RTH for example has been doing remarkably and now just to bottom of channel. Notes concerning the E/R: GBX reported record EPS of $2.15 for F1Q15, ahead of our $1.49 and Street's $1.65 estimates. Company reiterated its outlook for F2016 EPS between $5.65 to $6.15; stock appears inexpensive at 4.2x forward PE. Reiterate Buy but lower PO to $40 from $43 as we model further caution around earnings and production declines in F2H16.
I'm probably about 40% long now. ENPH back below my first sale as well. Although GS giving SEDG a conviction buy is mind blowing to me so probably it's by by micro's for a while.
ReplyDeleteper Cashin:
ReplyDeleteOvernight And Overseas – Shanghai was up the Dow equivalent of 300 points amid rumors that the government
was a big, big buyer of stocks. Separately, and more importantly they marked the yuan higher. European markets
opened higher but gave back most gains by midday. Gold is softer and oil is mixed.
IWM is almost flat now for 3 years.
ReplyDeleteGotta test $101, then we see if it's 101N or 101S?
DeleteWas looking at that the other day too.
DeleteBut it did double in the 2.5 years before that and got to a very expensive valuation - I remember reading it was something like the highest valuation for small caps ever or the highest spread between small caps and large caps ever.
So, being optimistic, we could say, we had a great run, now it's been consolidating for a few years getting ready for the next move upwards. Pessimistically, it's topped out.
Being optimistic has cost me a lot of money.
DeleteCanada is building substantial hydroelectric capacity and a pipeline to carry water into California?
ReplyDeleteAnybody heard about this?
Looks like everyone's using trailing stops.
ReplyDelete“Under my plan … electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.”
ReplyDeleteThis means economic contraction, "necessarily", according to experts.
"Electricity would need to be produced for no more than four cents per kWh, and liquid fuels would need to be produced for less than $20 per barrel of oil equivalent."
When I was much younger, this is something I was warned would occur "necessarily" in my lifetime and it has stuck with me ever since.
Wild ride today. I actually knew that this was going to happen but I should have traded it.
ReplyDeleteI've decided to stick with long SPY / short GLD for now, through leveraged ETFS (SPXL / DGLD). I'm tempted to buy some more BAC (have a tiny position) but I think I'll just stick with SPY.
Also holding a small piece of BITA and am tempted to buy a starting position in MMYT.
I think Gold craters fairly soon, especially if we get out of this China funk.
After getting GS CB recommendation SEDG has reached my sell point.
ReplyDeleteSaudi Aramco IPO coming, eh?
ReplyDeletePROP - I dunno man, seems like the wheels are coming off this one.
I'm ready for the presidential election rally, how 'bout you girls?
Bought a starter position in GPS (GAP Stores) down 14% today.
ReplyDeleteSub-10 p/e, good yield and balance sheet. Cutting bad stores and moving more stuff online. Down today on bad Old Navy sales, but the guy running it very well left last year, so they are in a bit of a transition there and I think they can get it back on track.
Management is shareholder friendly and about 40% family ownership, so take good care of things.
Wouldn't be surprised if it fell more the next couple days as downgrades came out, so may be early, but a pretty good price either way.
Plus everybody hates retail now as AMZN is going to take over the world and I think retail is not nearly as dead as people think.
DeleteBrent - pay close attention to inventory levels. I was looking at the retail space a couple of weeks ago and saw that JWN's inventories had exploded over the past few years. Perhaps what we're seeing is like an inventory recession?
DeleteThat is one of the knocks against GPS is that they have poor inventory control and just send stuff to stores. But they've spent the last couple of years putting in new systems to address this and will be be able to better direct inventory to where it sells better, shorten new product cycles, better fulfill eCommerce, etc.
DeleteI think they are a smart company and hope this system is successful in addressing thing. If not, could be a long drawn out recovery.
Anyone else here start reading and article and then, seeing it is from Zerohedge, immediately stop and disregard completely what they just said?
ReplyDeleteHa All of the time!
ReplyDeletesorry this in response to your post about Zerohedge
DeleteI have yet to determine if ZH is an arm of CIA or KGB, maybe the Devil himself.
DeleteCSV - Feeling out of touch over here, considering laws and regulations seem to be majorly under constant unforgiving flux the past half decade, do you guys know if home cremations are now legal?
ReplyDeleteReally doubt it, but the funeral home business does seem to be getting attention from some of the value guys I follow.
Delete$US is pretty strong, you must be preparing for $CAD to gain some strength about now? I don't know what might change, but would be about time, sheesh....
DeleteConcerning being burned at the stake and taking a page from the WS playbook, obviously it's best to beg forgiveness as opposed to asking permission. Desperate times, desperate measures....
DeleteThe Cdn $ is undervalued on a purchasing parity basis, but it does trade with the price of oil, so I think we need to see a bounce there to turn the Cdn $.
DeleteContra the Heard guy:
ReplyDeletehttp://edmontonjournal.com/opinion/columnists/why-benj-gallander-loves-ugly-duckling-stocks
NATI - Alright, stink bid on this to satisfy the geek freak in me, hope it bites, barks and fly's into sparks on the carport floor.... My passion.
ReplyDeleteAMZN - I think there's no argument anymore that AMZN has taken a large advantage of internet commerce and who wouldn't rather shop in their undies anytime of day such as after midnight for instance than be subjected to fishbreath, slipping in barf or even BO after having driven to a hard to reach local (I hear traffic is thick everywhere)?
ReplyDeleteGeeks are inheriting the Earth! :)
ISIL must be the fringe armed leg of ISIS, let's not confuse this insulting Saudi Arabia.
ReplyDeleteReminds me, I checked at WMT and wow, wow, wow it's gonna cost me a fortune to target practice my 30-30 Winchester, so better get a deadly laser site instead....
Mark, you buying this round?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hoofheartedbrewing.com/
David Rosenberg from the Globe:
ReplyDeleteThe current fixation of global financial markets on China has blinded investors to the discounting of assets, including Canadian stocks, David Rosenberg, chief economist with Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., said in a note.
The recent decline of investor sentiment globally has amplified Canada’s slide by dragging down oil and commodity prices, the Canadian dollar and Canadian stocks relative to U.S. stocks. On all counts, the cumulative downside qualifies as “two-standard-deviation moves,” which have less than 5-per-cent probability.
“This could mean a buying opportunity is in the making – not a screaming buying opportunity, mind you, but a sign that it could be time to shift exposure north of the border,” Mr. Rosenberg said in the Friday edition of his daily economic newsletter Breakfast with Dave.
The turmoil in China’s financial markets and concerns about the vulnerability of the global economy have gripped investors in a volatile start to the year, which qualifies as the worst on record by some measures.
“Much technical damage has been done and the rupture has shaved $4-trillion out of the global market for equities just this week,” Mr. Rosenberg said.
The volatility gauge known as the VIX rose by 37 per cent this week through to Thursday’s close, nearly the entire high-yield bond market is trading below par, and commodities in aggregate have been driven down to 17-year lows, he said.
Excluding the U.S., the global stock market has entered official bear market territory.
But even in the U.S., “there is carnage beneath the surface,” Mr. Rosenberg said. “More than four in five stocks on the S&P 1500 are down 10 per cent or more – so clearly in corrective mode.”
But the vagaries of the Chinese stock market have little to say about the fate of the U.S. economy, he said, characterizing the global reaction as potential “irrational pessimism.”
“I sense that investors are sitting on cash today and waiting for some bell to ring,” he said. Longer-term investors “are going to wish they started to chip away now that the panic selling has set in.”
“This time last year, all I heard was how everything was too expensive and there was nothing to buy. Today we have a smorgasbord of asset classes and geographies cheapening up dramatically and all I see are deer in the headlights.”
“Isn’t this what value investors were waiting for a year ago?”
I ended up selling the DGLD for a nice profit but took a bigger loss on SPXL despite having multiple potential exit opportunities.
ReplyDeleteBought back into GDX / GDXJ / ABX / NUGT today.
NGL - Wowsa!
ReplyDeleteWonder if POTUS repealed the kill Obamacare bill today, lol, our Congress fiddling while the world burns...
ReplyDeleteVery nice discussion on China on Charlie Rose tonight, plus interview about Tht Revenant which runs first. Both segments are very interesting.
ReplyDeleteA discussion about turmoil in Chinese financial markets with Gillian Tett and Henry McVey. "The Revenant," a new film based on the novel by Michael Punke. Charlie is joined by the film’s director, Alejandro González Iñárritu and actor, Leonardo DiCaprio.
http://www.charlierose.com/
I've been thinking for past year that we have nowhere to go but down in home prices. Retailers over stocked their stores, iPhone market is saturated, some say same with autos. Energy was oversupplied, same with mining industry, based on endless Chinese supply.
ReplyDeleteThis all could just be a big inventory overbuild that will take a couple of years to work down
http://ourfiniteworld.com/
DeleteMeb faber did a report a year or so ago about how industries / countries down 3 years in a row tend to have big years after that. Gold has been down 4 years in a row.
ReplyDeleteCould be gold / gold miners time to shine, pun intended
I'm still not sold on gold but the miners look good
DeleteI'd look but I don't want to open my trading platform. It will all go away tomorrow :)
DeleteFREE - All-in @ 0.01? lol, live once!
ReplyDeleteEmployment secretary guy thinks jobs being added are higher paying, not low wage.
ReplyDeleteFWIW, one Canadian resource looks promising:
http://www.waterwarcrimes.com/newest-developments-blog---breaking-news---follow-ongoing-developments-here
John Williams - "Very low new normal for interest rates"
ReplyDeleteWhen was the last time the FED was WRONG?
GBX - 13G Filing from BlackRock on Greenbrier Cos. Shows 10.2% Stake
ReplyDeletePfizer raises U.S. prices on over 100 drugs
"Record crushing results"
DeleteWhat has thrown me off is insider selling, what would possess them to sell perhaps is future outlook isn't quite so lucrative?
Consider for instance, Bombardier receiving bailout from Canadian government, seem like there's just too much capacity (in a general sense) vs demand for so many products, services and manufactured goods even prices of services is becoming pressured?
I dunno, I'm trying to figure this out and some amount of dialog is my mechanism.
China appears to be in trouble thus perhaps we can anticipate further slowing (in a general sense), some sectors might actually have bottomed or near bottom, such as retail? RTH for example has been doing remarkably and now just to bottom of channel.
DeleteNotes concerning the E/R:
GBX reported record EPS of $2.15 for F1Q15, ahead of our $1.49 and Street's $1.65 estimates. Company reiterated its outlook for F2016 EPS between $5.65 to $6.15; stock appears inexpensive at 4.2x forward PE. Reiterate Buy but lower PO to $40 from $43 as we model further caution around earnings and production declines in F2H16.
new post
ReplyDeletehttp://htftp.domainbg.com/Kringster/Temp/Pop/Disco/KC%20%26%20The%20Sunshine%20Band/KC%20%26%20The%20Sunshine%20Band%20-%20That%27s%20the%20Way%20(I%20Like%20It)%20-%201977.mp3
ReplyDelete