HLI - These guys are restructuring experts, right? Seems likely their business should be brisk? Well, maybe it's overpriced given looks like a recent IPO/spinoff similar to RACE?
ITB - Are you guys considering accumulating this one at some point?
Art market has seemed frothy for the last few years to me - maybe it's coming back to earth:
Stifel's David A. Schick has downgraded the rating on Sothebys (NYSE: BID) from Buy to Hold.
Schick noted that the art market continues to be soft, with sales falling 44 percent year on year to £69.5 million at Sothebys' Contemporary Evening Sale in London on February 10, as compared to the estimate of a 21 percent decline.
Apart from the declining art prices, Schick also noted that part of the decline in sales was due to four lots being withdrawn.
ORCL - Keep an eye on this one, I think maybe there's a chance JAVA MIGHT be imbedded in internet of things micro controllers. MCHP/AVGO and others. AVGO bought ATML I think, which I've seen the ATML chips in a variety of products, MCHP has promise too, see PICAXE stuff which has been popular in teaching students how to build micro controller based systems.
I don't know if you guys have any exposure, maybe even worked for a tech company in the past?
Broadcom for some reason (comm chips?) was coveted and became AVGO, Cambride Silicon I think was rolled into that as well. All in preparation for the coming IOT.
Been holding really small positions in both for a little while. Made good % on EWV and just 5% or so on $EDZ. I think at the least we should bounce here. If not then this market is horribly weak.
Alternative energy - I dunno man, the more I look into this the more I see what looks like shady characters lurking behind the curtain trying to push something that's too good to be true unless we tax the air we breath..
Bought into a Canadian retailer - RET-A.TO. Still have those GPS shares from a couple weeks ago.
Keeping positions fairly small as I'm not confident retail is done going down, but they sure are cheap and retail is not going away, just changing with the internet and many people still like to be able to try clothes on or return/exchange at a real store and both of these chains are moving into e-commerce to grab online sales.
The issues with Java I see are that it is pretty much freeware, so ORCL doesn't make a whole lot of money off it and IT companies don't trust ORCL to keep things free, maintain product updates, etc., so I think they would be hesitant to go into committing to JAVA if they don't have to - I know I would rather use something not controlled by a company like C or C++ for my business because of those issues.
Rough start to the year for my portfolio - down almost 13% YTD. A lot of stuff I own not working well - like financials, auto, energy, Euro-stocks. Think they are all still good going forward, but makes you think.
Plus, TSX having a better year than the US, only down 6%, so should help me with my portfolio probably around 50% Canada, 50% US, but not so far.
That sucks man. I honestly don't see things getting better for a while but I'm flexible and open to changing my opinion. After last year's draw down I decided to just stick to cash and a few shorts. I'm up maybe 3-5% this year but far from the highs I made in 2015.
I just think with earnings down trending and all of the headwinds out there the realistic multiple to put on the market is maybe 15 (vs long term avg of 16.5). Assuming earnings of $105 that's still another 10-15% lower from here.
Gold sub-sector up 36% YTD is the big winner. Broader materials sector (gold, base metals, potash) is up 8% and materials are about 1/6th of the TSX unlike the US where I think it is around 2%.
Financials are down 12% in Canada whereas 19% in the US (using XLF), so that helps too.
TSX has underperformed the S&P 500 for 5 years in a row. Has never underperformed 6 before, so good chance it does better this year, which implies materials, energy and financials do well and technology and healthcare underperform.
SPY down + oil companies are producing full tilt in hopes of keeping the doors open another week. Buy gas AFTER the bankruptcies and then pray the new owners shut the wells down.
Yeah I did. I'm working for a national tax firm. I figured it wasn't worth fighting the market because I see the potential for a long downturn. So get a job in the meantime to keep cash coming in the door and then focus on the market when the downturn ends
I dunno, it all depends on who you're working WITH as to how rewarding the experience. When things are clicking, the experience can be quite enjoyable.
ISIS - Do these guys contribute to super PACS? "ISIS actually cares about the identity of the next American president. The actions of one U.S. president helped create ISIS in the wake of the Iraq war; the non-action of another U.S. president allowed the group to emerge as the political and military power that we know now. Like voters, ISIS prefers candidates who serve its objectives."
Average investor has made no money for 16 years, same as the 1965 - 1981 period and loner than then 1928 - 1943 period. Implies we are due for a real bull market.
BY the way, if you google irrlevent investor, google has the first link as:
The Irrelevant Investor theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com/ Oct 6, 2015 - Director of Research, Ritholtz Wealth Management. How Should We Think About a ... - Calling Tops and Bottoms You've visited this page 2 times. Last visit: 11/02/16
But if you click on it, you get:
Hot XXX Porn Tube Videos and Pics Free sex videos and pictures. The hottest porn found on the internet here on tumblr.
Re gold, I thought we'd see a final move down to the $700 - $800 range and shake out my gold bug friends (they are both still very long). Maybe it still happens, but the move this year is very strong. I'm tempted to pick up a couple golf stocks - many are still down a lot and have good leverage if this move has legs.
NDP dropped right back to the same price where I bought it last time, before unloading at $10.30. However, HLX has declined even more, so I just placed a buy stop limit order on it at $2.70/$2.75.
Oil up 8% today, but nat gas down. TD shows nat gas storage in the US is about 20% above last year, probably due to the mild winter in the East. But production has been flat for over a year, so the low rig count may indicate future supply shrinkage.
So complicated to figure out, but a cold couple of weeks would certainly help.
CNBC guy is probably right, also I guess refiners should be switching to summer fuel so maybe reduce production. As you said, hard to know but ALDW is trading at 50% of where it was a few months ago and I have to think other refiners will be weak if not already corrected.
Still trying to understand what Buffet is expecting from PSX, the only smart guys making good trades are that bizarre Shakerelli guy.
Bought some more of that Chinese manufacturer, JST.
Trading at $5.22 and getting taken out at $6.00 in a few months, so return is 15% and annualized return will be around 40% - 50% depending on when it closes.
The buyers have backed out before, so there is risk, but the SEC buyout filing is done and it looks solid, so I think it goes.
Does production of biofuels cause destruction of wildlife habitat, resulting in decline of native bird species?
According to the Environmental Working Group, 23.7 million acres (37,000 square miles) of conservation lands were converted into farm lands between 2008 and 2011, more than in the previous 40 years.
HLI - These guys are restructuring experts, right? Seems likely their business should be brisk? Well, maybe it's overpriced given looks like a recent IPO/spinoff similar to RACE?
ReplyDeleteITB - Are you guys considering accumulating this one at some point?
I love talking to myself BTW, which makes TT perfect for me.
ReplyDeleteGirls gone garlic! Anti-Valentines sentiment. This idea represents well human evolution, what a joy to observe the 60's hipster revolution is back!
ReplyDeleteWhat's BID telling us?
ReplyDeleteWe have yet to find a bottom, my guess.
DeleteWhat about the market?
DeleteOr both the market and stock?
DeleteArt market has seemed frothy for the last few years to me - maybe it's coming back to earth:
DeleteStifel's David A. Schick has downgraded the rating on Sothebys (NYSE: BID) from Buy to Hold.
Schick noted that the art market continues to be soft, with sales falling 44 percent year on year to £69.5 million at Sothebys' Contemporary Evening Sale in London on February 10, as compared to the estimate of a 21 percent decline.
Apart from the declining art prices, Schick also noted that part of the decline in sales was due to four lots being withdrawn.
Maybe they're hanging onto cash in preparation to buy RACE in April?
DeleteWow, this is something! "We have detected gravitational waves"
ReplyDeleteBrazilian military will wage war on mosquitoes? DDT might be their bazooka?
ReplyDeleteBA - That's probably a good entry, no?
ReplyDeleteYellen on CNBC so good at dealing with the politicians.
ReplyDeleteOnly real clue this is a dog and pony show is the Woody Allen voiceover.
DeleteORCL - Keep an eye on this one, I think maybe there's a chance JAVA MIGHT be imbedded in internet of things micro controllers.
ReplyDeleteMCHP/AVGO and others. AVGO bought ATML I think, which I've seen the ATML chips in a variety of products, MCHP has promise too, see PICAXE stuff which has been popular in teaching students how to build micro controller based systems.
I don't know if you guys have any exposure, maybe even worked for a tech company in the past?
Broadcom for some reason (comm chips?) was coveted and became AVGO, Cambride Silicon I think was rolled into that as well. All in preparation for the coming IOT.
ReplyDeleteLong SSO at $49.96
ReplyDeleteDay trades only for me unless it runs hard and gives me some cushion
DeleteSold it for lunch money.
DeleteEach of these companies that suspend dividends have a nice playable morning bounce when the div gets halted, might make some $$ that way?
DeleteFrack open a Bud Light?
ReplyDeleteHigh lead levels in drinking water... Where are the environmentalists?
ReplyDeleteToo funny!
ReplyDelete"Now we need Yellen to grow a fucking beard and step up her Fed chief game."
Back long spy 181.98
ReplyDelete"Busloads of Libertardians relocating New Hampshire." I wonder if it's legal to hunt moose?
ReplyDeleteClosed my EWV / EDZ. Too much risk on short side here I think.
ReplyDeleteBeen holding really small positions in both for a little while. Made good % on EWV and just 5% or so on $EDZ. I think at the least we should bounce here. If not then this market is horribly weak.
DeleteThankfully we waited for Japan and China holiday vacation for the next leg down.
ReplyDeleteLong UWTI at $1.29
ReplyDeleteMy great, great grandpa once told me there's two things they're not making anymore, those are refineries and arable productive land.
ReplyDeleteWFM is green, FWIW
ReplyDeleteMBUU - Wouldn't you think this action is bullish?
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Melted along with everything else immune to Europe, China and Japan. How low can she go?
ReplyDeleteBAC - $7, or $2.50 ?
ReplyDeleteAlternative energy - I dunno man, the more I look into this the more I see what looks like shady characters lurking behind the curtain trying to push something that's too good to be true unless we tax the air we breath..
ReplyDeleteBought into a Canadian retailer - RET-A.TO. Still have those GPS shares from a couple weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteKeeping positions fairly small as I'm not confident retail is done going down, but they sure are cheap and retail is not going away, just changing with the internet and many people still like to be able to try clothes on or return/exchange at a real store and both of these chains are moving into e-commerce to grab online sales.
CP, I worked at ORCL.
ReplyDeleteThe issues with Java I see are that it is pretty much freeware, so ORCL doesn't make a whole lot of money off it and IT companies don't trust ORCL to keep things free, maintain product updates, etc., so I think they would be hesitant to go into committing to JAVA if they don't have to - I know I would rather use something not controlled by a company like C or C++ for my business because of those issues.
Yeah, I agree with you, I don't see the value of having an interpreter built into the micro controller.
DeleteRough start to the year for my portfolio - down almost 13% YTD. A lot of stuff I own not working well - like financials, auto, energy, Euro-stocks. Think they are all still good going forward, but makes you think.
ReplyDeletePlus, TSX having a better year than the US, only down 6%, so should help me with my portfolio probably around 50% Canada, 50% US, but not so far.
Any particular sector of TSX outperformance? I'd like you to say commodities, lol.
DeleteThat sucks man. I honestly don't see things getting better for a while but I'm flexible and open to changing my opinion. After last year's draw down I decided to just stick to cash and a few shorts. I'm up maybe 3-5% this year but far from the highs I made in 2015.
DeleteI just think with earnings down trending and all of the headwinds out there the realistic multiple to put on the market is maybe 15 (vs long term avg of 16.5). Assuming earnings of $105 that's still another 10-15% lower from here.
DeleteGold sub-sector up 36% YTD is the big winner. Broader materials sector (gold, base metals, potash) is up 8% and materials are about 1/6th of the TSX unlike the US where I think it is around 2%.
DeleteFinancials are down 12% in Canada whereas 19% in the US (using XLF), so that helps too.
TSX has underperformed the S&P 500 for 5 years in a row. Has never underperformed 6 before, so good chance it does better this year, which implies materials, energy and financials do well and technology and healthcare underperform.
The gold move is what I thought would happen. I unfortunately got shaken out
DeleteI bailed on SPY after hours. Taking gains quickly in this market.
ReplyDeleteWhy do you folks think ugaz was down today despite spy being down and the usually negative correlation between them? Because I am still long ugaz! :)
ReplyDeleteIn fact, I bought some more at EOD today.
SPY down + oil companies are producing full tilt in hopes of keeping the doors open another week. Buy gas AFTER the bankruptcies and then pray the new owners shut the wells down.
DeleteDid you ever end up getting a job Mike?
ReplyDeleteYeah I did. I'm working for a national tax firm. I figured it wasn't worth fighting the market because I see the potential for a long downturn. So get a job in the meantime to keep cash coming in the door and then focus on the market when the downturn ends
DeleteBeing involved in the workplace will keep you in touch as well, I'm sure it will be a pleasant experience.
DeleteGood to have that income stream and less pressure to force trades in the market.
DeleteSucks to have to answer to someone else again though.
I dunno, it all depends on who you're working WITH as to how rewarding the experience. When things are clicking, the experience can be quite enjoyable.
DeleteNMM - How well is this company managed?
ReplyDeleteISIS - Do these guys contribute to super PACS?
"ISIS actually cares about the identity of the next American president. The actions of one U.S. president helped create ISIS in the wake of the Iraq war; the non-action of another U.S. president allowed the group to emerge as the political and military power that we know now. Like voters, ISIS prefers candidates who serve its objectives."
Futures up this evening for the first time in a while. Might be meaningless, but nice to see at least.
ReplyDeletehttps://theirrelevantinvestor.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/cap-3.jpg?w=640
ReplyDeleteAverage investor has made no money for 16 years, same as the 1965 - 1981 period and loner than then 1928 - 1943 period. Implies we are due for a real bull market.
BY the way, if you google irrlevent investor, google has the first link as:
ReplyDeleteThe Irrelevant Investor
theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com/
Oct 6, 2015 - Director of Research, Ritholtz Wealth Management.
How Should We Think About a ... - Calling Tops and Bottoms
You've visited this page 2 times. Last visit: 11/02/16
But if you click on it, you get:
Hot XXX Porn Tube Videos and Pics
Free sex videos and pictures. The hottest porn found on the internet here on tumblr.
Whoops
Yeah, I've noticed the same thing lately where goog's link are redirected or something. Bugaboo in their lookup table counter?
DeleteRe gold, I thought we'd see a final move down to the $700 - $800 range and shake out my gold bug friends (they are both still very long). Maybe it still happens, but the move this year is very strong. I'm tempted to pick up a couple golf stocks - many are still down a lot and have good leverage if this move has legs.
ReplyDeleteIf we get a rally here, initially gold will probably get kicked to the curb. I'm not sure why I'm not encouraging you to buy gold.
DeleteSure was nice of Saudi Arabia to fill our Cushing oil tanks to the brim. Does the climate change bill place limits on global refinery construction?
ReplyDeleteTechnical hotshot, Tom Demark, saying market bottoms in next day or 2.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-02-11/s-p-at-lowest-level-since-2014-how-much-lower-will-it-go
He did call this latest bounce and has a bunch of street cred from calling the November market top:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-20/tom-demark-today-interim-low-followed-5-8-rebound-then-another-selloff-china-fall-fu
Well since oil and the market seems tied at the hip, should have a good day tomorrow.
Deletewti +5%
TROW looks like a safe place to hide out.
ReplyDeleteBEP - Dang, almost closed the gap up. I'm just not sure I have the balls to own another stock that originated from Bay Street snake oil salesmen.
ReplyDeletehttp://webpages.charter.net/pingel/WackyTobacky.mp3
ReplyDeleteBXMT is looking like a deal.
ReplyDeleteSIVB - Absolutely crushed.
ReplyDeleteSurely, Wall Street donated the most to those candidates they don't want to win.
ReplyDeleteNDP dropped right back to the same price where I bought it last time, before unloading at $10.30. However, HLX has declined even more, so I just placed a buy stop limit order on it at $2.70/$2.75.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/16/02/6222042/natural-gas-rig-count-hits-lowest-level-in-29-years
ReplyDeleteOil up 8% today, but nat gas down. TD shows nat gas storage in the US is about 20% above last year, probably due to the mild winter in the East. But production has been flat for over a year, so the low rig count may indicate future supply shrinkage.
DeleteSo complicated to figure out, but a cold couple of weeks would certainly help.
Watch the WTI/BRENT spread as well (refiners?), might be a clue there?
DeleteGuy on CNBC at lunch today saying the refiners have produced too much gasoline, so spreads for refiners should drop.
DeleteCNBC guy is probably right, also I guess refiners should be switching to summer fuel so maybe reduce production. As you said, hard to know but ALDW is trading at 50% of where it was a few months ago and I have to think other refiners will be weak if not already corrected.
DeleteStill trying to understand what Buffet is expecting from PSX, the only smart guys making good trades are that bizarre Shakerelli guy.
Trump - I dunno, probably he wouldn't kiss the Saudi sphincter ring?
ReplyDeleteTWTR- Sold the shares I bought at 14.60 @ 15.50.
ReplyDeleteTA - Seems overdone her, no? Almost trading @ cash on hand maybe I'm missing something.
ReplyDeleteBought some more of that Chinese manufacturer, JST.
ReplyDeleteTrading at $5.22 and getting taken out at $6.00 in a few months, so return is 15% and annualized return will be around 40% - 50% depending on when it closes.
The buyers have backed out before, so there is risk, but the SEC buyout filing is done and it looks solid, so I think it goes.
Does production of biofuels cause destruction of wildlife habitat, resulting in decline of native bird species?
ReplyDeleteAccording to the Environmental Working Group, 23.7 million acres (37,000 square miles) of conservation lands were converted into farm lands between 2008 and 2011, more than in the previous 40 years.
TWTR- Closed all at 17.75.
ReplyDeleteWonder when Greece returns to the forefront? 3...2...1...
ReplyDelete30 minutes till the crisis resurfaces!
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete