Thursday, March 3, 2016

3/3/16 Raging Bull in Rio

No change.  International markets push ahead> EEM
(emerging markets) +1.02%, RSX (Russia) +1.09%,
EWZ (Brazil) +7.15%!! [the
iBovespa itself +4.83%],
ASHR (China ‘A’ shares) +0.65%, VT (total world
stock market) +0.71%.


Tomorrow we have the ‘jobs
report.’

58 comments:

  1. BTE hit a sell limit at $3.20 for me today for the shares I purchased at $2.80 a while ago. If I add up all the gains I made on trading oil stocks as they were bouncing around the bottom, the total gain may already be close to the money I invested into BCEI. So even if BCEI goes bankrupt, I may not lose too much on the energy sector after all. And actually, looking at today's performance, some traders might be thinking that BCEI will survive...

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  2. Holy shit I didn't even realize EWZ was up that much. Crazy.

    Anyone think we make new all time highs by May?

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    Replies
    1. Sure looks like it.

      Am away this week in Dominican with limited internet access, but it does seem like things are getting more optimistic about the economy and markets, so that could easily drive things much higher.

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  3. Wow $NYMO hit 105.77 today
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42952065726

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  4. https://twitter.com/MktOutperform/status/705057388294852609

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  5. To get on the first Forbes 400 list in 1982, you need "only" $75 million. Last year, you needed $1.7 billion.

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    Replies
    1. BXE single-handedly took me off that list!!! Damn.

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    2. That's how I feel about EROS, BITA, and SEDG.

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  6. ENPH- All of this because that idiot Senegal bought 100K shares?

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  7. VPCO - What is this thing..... Not much info.

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  8. MCHP - Dang, I nearly bought this one b/c was deliberating on either it or ATML then that choice went away and of course it did run despite my broker poo-pooed it I new it would. I've got a table full of stuff I've been playing with here that use chips from both companies....

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  9. AVGO - Somebody was buying this in AH, that's for sure.

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  10. Japan’s Nikkei rises back above 17000. DJIA futures briefly breached 17k following the release of the jobs report (+242,000 new jobs and above expectations), and now pulling back-> we need to see a close >17000. Early indications look positive. Brazil’s iBovespa rallies another +4% (EWZ +6.4% premarket). EEM +0.87%, ASHR (China ‘A’ Shares) +1.25%. Bulls may have a tailwind in the form of FOMO (fear of missing out).

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    Replies
    1. We'll see, the tailwind I've been feeling has tapered off the past couple sessions. Brokers jumping in with OPM might carry things a bit higher but wow man, they've been handed a big haircut over phenom that hasn't gone away?

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    2. Top calling? My account is red, going into the last hour.

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  11. Replies
    1. So many doubles. I should have held my basket of SDRL / BTE / HLX. Granted it was only about 10% of my portfolio but would be nice to have tacked on 10%.

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  12. Russell 2000 PnF target now 1,354. Can't make this up.

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  13. Anyone following TERP at all? I'm definitely intrigued by this one.

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  14. The chart of the $RUT over the past 2 years is almost identical to the S&P 500 in 1998. If it follows suit then the R&F target of 1,354 might just be in play for the end of the year. Completely hypothetical but if it follows suit then you would see a run to 1,200, a pause / small pullback, then test of 1,295 maybe sometime over the summer. Then a 5-8% pullback and then a push to new highs by the end of the year.

    Tempts me to hold on to TNA. It's already up quite a bit but it's also down huge from last year.

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  15. We must be getting close to a cascade of bankruptcies, buy rumor sell news...

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  16. BXE - Here we go, no doubt closes down $0.10

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  17. YANG might be a good choice here but was much better in October or June even.

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  18. PGR - Did I mention a couple months ago these guys increased our policy by 10%? I bet we weren't the only ones, they erased our discount for the tattle tale recorder device we had last year.

    NY - Wow, tampons are taxed b/c they aren't classified as medical items. Talk about being progressive this takes the cake.

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  19. Flint - They're replacing the pipes as opposed to installing poly liner? Amazing, from one extreme compromise to another with no in-between.

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  20. Other weird stuff going on:
    "Hundreds of rural hospitals have been closing or closed."

    "America is putting itself back together."

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  21. US + European indexes closed modestly higher. Emerging markets did much better. RSX (Russia) opened fractionally higher but closed up (another) +3.54%. EWZ (Brazil) +5.27%. ASHR (China 'A' Shares) +2.98%.

    Investors on the sidelines? There's no easy entry point. The market disdains forecasts, and could easily set new highs in 2016 against a backdrop of media headlines/ hedge fund gurus calling for a Crash.

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  22. 2% growth is great, surely a fantastic reason to raise rates. I don't recall last time growth exceeded 2%, it's been quite a while, hasn't it?

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    Replies
    1. Do we know of a site where you can track the two to compare?

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    2. Maybe here, but I failed to get it to download, of course....

      https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=a2w

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  23. What have our foreign policies accomplished in the Middle East?

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  24. 2nd_ave, while we may wish for the market to reach old highs, it may not do so. Wouldn't it make sense for you to start scaling out of your long positions now, instead of trying to sell all of them in one shot at "the top"?

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    1. What if we're not even close to the top? What if this was a 2 year pause and the top is 4 years from now at 3,000?

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    2. If stocks are expensive, from where do those metrics originate? IOW, are those metrics skewed in some way?

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    3. I have no plans to scale out anytime soon. Sentiment is far from euphoric. In fact, it's still quite negative. The total world stock market currently sits at a low-risk entry point, IMO.

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  25. CG - Hmm, according to my DD my CG dividend is tax exempt? That's interesting.....

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    Replies
    1. SPH and ALDW dividends are tax exempt as well, this doesn't make sense?

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  26. Has FANG run out of steam, or is the wind down (of the favorite short trade) a sign of adding to winners for the next leg up? Thinking out loud here, I realize it's an unpopular concept of course but hey....

    "one of the most prominent strategies last year was going long the FANG (Facebook FB, Google GOOG, Amazon AMZN, Netflix NFLX) and shorting the energy complex."

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    Replies
    1. I'd way prefer buying energy over FANG still. Still a lot of pessimism in energy and things my be starting to turn, and FANG stocks are still either very high market cap or very expensive, so hard to move up.

      AMZN in 2015 may be MSFT in 2000.

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  27. FDP - Watch out, you have to pay extra for food that doesn't contain celluose (wood pulp) and fresh food.

    BTW, what will we eat if we switch from burning coal to burning wood for energy, or should we anticipate more wood pulp in our diet as wood pellets become more prominent?

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  28. What if we're not even close to the top? What if this was a 2 year pause and the top is 4 years from now at 3,000?

    >That's what I've been saying for a while and still think. There is no indications of, or reasons for a recession, rates are going up a bit but staying low, inflation is tame, the economy is not overheating.

    Without a recession, it is hard to see a major bear market, because many stocks are not expensive and some very cheap.

    From a stock cycle perspective, we still have yet to see the optimistic mid-cycle period, and usually that transitions into some sort of a toppongphase, which is no where in sight.

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    1. The major issue with the market right now is valuation overall. The market trades at 18.8x trailing earnings (versus 16.5 average) and earnings were down 5.5% last year and 6% last quarter. Long term earnings growth is 6.7% so if you assume 6.7% the next 3 years and assign a 16.5x multiple then you get only a 7% return from this price...or 2.2% per year (4.5% including dividends).

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    2. Valuation will matter when it matters. I assume you're referring to the SPX, which has approached and may again approach 25x+ before a significant decline begins.

      The global stock market ex-US? I think it's already in bear market territory, and at a long-term buy point. By the time the majority of investors figure that out, it may then become prudent to start selling.

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    3. OK, now I understand your strategy. Scaling in during extremely negative sentiment (as was the case with EM at the end of 2015) and waiting for above-average sentiment to start scaling out will, no doubt, be profitable over multiple cycles. But if we focus only on this cycle, then a more sure way to make profits is to start scaling out soon. Who knows, mayby the driving force in this cycle will be institutions and investor sentiment will matter less than usual?

      I put 1/2 of my 401k into LZEMX at 14.21 and added another 1/4 at 12.40. I'll probably take profits on the bunch I added as soon as LZEMX rises above 14.21...

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    4. Then, when LZEMX rises above 15, I'll place a stop for the remaining shares at 14.21, so as not to "let a profit turn into a loss." If that stop will not be hit in a short order and LZEMX keeps going up making higher lows, then I'll wait for it to make a lower high and then break below a previous low before selling the rest.

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    5. 2nd - if only the US market could de-couple from the rest of the world...

      Valuation definitely matters in so much as future returns.

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    6. Valuation does matter and stocks are on the high side. But investors often compare valuations using the risk free return rate of US Treasuries, so with this being so low, people are willing to pay over 20 p/e's for safe consumer staples with much higher yields for example. I don't see that changing until rates get competitive.

      I could see a market where the PG and KO's of the world do Ok, the cheap financials, industrials and materials do very well and overvalued stocks like AMZN lose, and the overall market goes up quite a bit.

      But until rates get back up to say the 3% range, their is not many alternatives for yield oriented investors (like many big pension funds).

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  29. Anybody know which states Romney took?

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  30. Crap, the only container shipments remaining on the high seas have been confiscated? Looks like container ship stocks recovery is cancelled.... What are the chances this postpones the CIA's secret army battle plans?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476246/Spain-seizes-20-000-ISIS-fighter-uniforms-smuggled-Syria-Iraq-marked-second-hand-clothes-aid-packages.html

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  31. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackrock-gold-etf-idUSKCN0W61YG

    Not what you'd expect to see or how I recall gold bottomed/acted back in 2000. Makes me think there is still too much latent hope in gold to be a true bottom, unless something has fundamentally changed (like negative interest rates?). But remember all the central bank selling of gold in the late 1990's and how nobody thought it would ever go up - not the case now.

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  32. Jesse sent out another PDF, last couple times he did that market went sideways a week or two then took off to the downside....

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  33. Hong Kong Residential Sales Plunge 70% in February to 25 Year Lows

    So, I simply cannot imagine a better reason to believe global trade is expanding as reports similar to this surface. Stick your head in the sand and click your heels...

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  34. If you stick your head in the sand and refuse to look for fantastic economic data, you won't discover it. No wonder BB is so bullish?:
    "South Korea February Auto exports declined 8.1% Y/Y while production fell 3.7% Y/Y and domestic sales rose 7.1% Y/Y 07 Mar 2016 - 00:49 - Forex - Source: BBG "

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