Thursday, May 12, 2016

5/12/16 Dilma's Done!

At least for the next six months:


Brazil’s iBovespa appears to be consolidating its recent gains (EWZ +1.2% today). 

The global market is doing its best to discourage investors, as illustrated by today’s chart of the DJIA (from +87 points at the intraday high to -86 points at the intraday low to a current print of +53):


Keep in mind that it’s impossible to rally once all investors are on board.  It’s the fund managers and/or retail investors who were left behind that ultimately drive the indexes to new highs.

38 comments:

  1. I meant to say the iBovespa was up +1.2% (now +1.7%). EWZ itself is up a muted +0.67%.

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  2. Gotta wonder if this is sell the news

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    1. Short term investors are conditioned to sell the news. But then what? The story doesn't end there. They're selling to longer-term investors only too happy to open/add on price declines. No, I think we're looking at a turnaround play in Brazil that may take a year or two to play out.

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    2. Yeah different time frames. I'm thinking near term.

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  3. OK, this will probably ramble a little but I'm looking at all sorts of this. B&M retail is getting killed. JWN is at 5 YEAR low after hours.This can't all be AMZN. Hiring is stalled and unemployment applications up. Market is basically at an all time high. Around Petaluma EVERYONE is all of a sudden replacing thier sidewalks. It's the craziest thing I've seen You could go years without seeing one. Now they are all over the place. On Z, my house is now 'worth' $1M. Just above where is was in 2007/8. Right before you know what.

    Do I think we get wiped out again? No, but your telling me over the next few months I wont get a better entry point than here? I have to believe I will. I am holding my positions in AAPL/WY/SEDG though. I did add small to SEDG today at 18.22.

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    1. I wouldn't get too worked up over it. There will always be 'out of favor' sectors. Last year it was energy. Now it's retail. Over the next 10-15 years, I'm pretty sure global markets will be much higher.

      My Dad's biggest regret is selling our home in Atherton in 1970 for five figures (when he relocated the family to the Midwest). It's now well into seven figures. I'm sure prices dipped/rose many times over those 45 years.

      By the way. We resided in Pittsburgh three different times during my early years. Friends of my parents who bought homes in the early sixties and remained in Pittsburgh? They have seen minimal appreciation in home values, 'almost nothing' according to my Dad. You just never know.

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    2. It may be pittsburgh's turn the next 50. I don't know how many people can afford 7 figures anymore

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  4. JWN was basically earning a buck a share/Q at the highs of $80. This Q it was .26.

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  5. Mark - I agree with you in large part which is why I'm taking each day as its own day in the market. I rarely hold things overnight. Oil is currently the only support in this market...and Amazon and Facebook.

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  6. Picked up ugaz after hours at 25.4.

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  7. Saut mentioned today on his morning chat that some "smart" analyst at Raymond James is calling for $85 oil by years end. Wouldn't shock me given where sentiment is. Who knows

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    1. OK, that would shock me....but so did $25.

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  8. Apple invests $1 billion in Didi Chuxing, Uber's rival in China

    Brilliant.

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  9. Big Surf

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ok9nPRCJgp4

    Surfing Pe'ahi "Jaws" Surf Break Maui Hawaii January 10, 2016 Part 1

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    1. It is drone footage and some slow mo which makes you feel like your there.

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    2. Another epic day 17 days later.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWYcpfo995Y

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    3. Man that's crazy. Did you ever attempt to ride that thing?

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  10. 2nd - just curious why the switch to an almost serene outlook on the markets when in years past at lower prices you weren't?

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    1. As traders, we all need to move on in order to maintain an edge. I'm simply moving on to the strategy I feel will best outperform the majority of traders over the foreseeable future.

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  11. Added some ugaz at 24.24. Good spot here to manage risk...low risk stop out

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  12. This is still the biggest risk with Amazon
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/amazon-getting-away-with-on-tax-says-donald-trump?CMP=twt_gu

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  13. Retail sales: Consumers spending, just not where they used to

    http://seekingalpha.com/news/3183130-retail-sales-consumers-spending-just-used

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  14. Sold me Canadian retailer, RET.A. You guys have me convinced to stay away. What happens in the US usually happens in Canada a couple years later, so if everyone is moving to the web down there, we will probably see here soon enough.

    Made about 10% on the stock in 3 months, so worked out well.

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  15. Sold ugaz way too early at breakeven

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  16. Man, I was so wrong not taking profits on UGAZ the first time it rose above $26. Missed so many opportunities to reload and repeat...

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  17. TRIN and Bear It

    Nothing bullish about today's selling. The TRIN (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/102202.asp) spiked to 2.2, which reflects intense selling pressure. However, a high TRIN reading after an extended decline (as is the case now) can indicate capitulation.

    We know that markets rarely bottom on a Friday. We also know that intense selling pressure rarely dissipates on a dime. My guess is another -200 points on the DJIA before it reverses next Tuesday.

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  18. NSPH finally got bought out.

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  19. Grin as Bears Hit

    Then again, last Friday may have marked a bottom and another example of why 2016 has been difficult for short-term traders. All global indexes rallied out of the gate and have yet to look back. I'll take it!

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  20. Long LABD at 45.1. Sold UGAZ at small loss.

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  21. TLT (US treasuries) near its multi-year highs and sharp reversal today. I know I've been looking for rates to normalize for a long time, but TBF could be a good trade here as, realistically, rates can't go much lower.

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  22. I bought some FCX today at $11.05 and also sold LABD at a loss at $44.7

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  23. I bought some SAM today at $151.7 I think. It's an ok valuation but their earnings have been getting hit by competition in the microbrewery space. The stock is down 55% from peak. I'm thinking they will be able to introduce some new beers and take advantage of their large distribution network. The stock is an attractive acquisition target for larger brewers due to their distribution.

    They also have a good balance sheet and a CEO that is getting older and may finally be looking to sell out. He's always been against it because it's his baby but a good friend of mine in the beer industry that has gone to events with him said he wouldn't be surprised if he takes the bait (GS and others had been trying to get him to sell out for several years) due to age and the fact that he seems to be more interesting in the drinking side of things than running the biz.

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