Saturday, May 7, 2016
5/7/13 Killer Joe/ A Cool Simmer
No one believes in the quietly raging (let's call it simmering) 2016 bull market. Disbelief is a powerful 'prompt,' enough to spur the DJIA to 20,000 by year end.
The driving bass line in Benny Golson's 'Killer Joe?' Apart from the bridge, the composition is based entirely on two chords (C7 and Bb7)! Less is more, and all that jazz. A beautifully constructed song, one that creates complexity via layers of simple contrasts.
This is one mean market, one that's taking its time setting a bear trap. It's also one cool market, one that slaps shorts with impunity. 'Hurt me slow, please Joe.' That's too complicated for me! Let's just say crowds are known neither for common sense nor rational behavior.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Looks like good earnings out of TEVA and stock is up. Haven't had a chance to review the results yet, but in general, i do like the generic drug space as seems like government and HMO's will push more business their way to save costs.
ReplyDeleteEspecially if the controversy around pricing persists. I like this one but you have to deal with the AGN purchase which might cause issues for the near term.
DeleteAAII Sentiment has been low for over a year now:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raymondjames.com/images/inv_strat/160509_1.png
I wonder how sentiment was back in the late 70s / early 80's. I know Univ of Mich was very low.
DeleteAAI Started in 1987. Here's a chart from 1987 to 2011. Late 1980's/earaly 1990's were pretty negative, but turned into the strong 1990's bull. Now isn't as negative, but getting close and more negative than almost all times in the last 20 years:
Deletehttp://etf-investment-ideas.blogspot.ca/2011/09/using-aaii-sentiment-survey-to-time.html
DGLD is rocking today! Unfortunately, I got stopped out on Friday... If I hadn't moved up the stop to my entry point, I would have still be in DGLD...
ReplyDeleteIBB went long at the close
ReplyDeleteI picked up some LC today at $4.69. I don't know how much of a black hole things are with their disclosures but I'm familiar with the platform and know that it is growing very fast. So I think this is an overreaction but we will see
ReplyDeleteThis market continues to have multiple blowups. Ugly action
ReplyDeleteDefinitely a teflon market though. Reinforces my desire to stick mainly to ETFs for the time being.
DeleteInvestors Inteeligence survey goes back to 1970. Current results are near 20 year lows, but not as bad as late 1970's or late 1980s/early 1990's:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.google.ca/search?q=aaii+sentiment+survey+chart&safe=off&espv=2&biw=1745&bih=868&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjCq4uUj87MAhVK74MKHeFuBKEQ_AUIBygC#q=aaii+sentiment+survey+1987&safe=off&tbm=isch&tbas=0&imgrc=9DQXzYHHsYLSvM%3A
Another interesting read is on how horrible the 1973/1974 bear market was. I do not see things this bad as that was a bad time for the economy and the country:
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2016/05/04/the-worst-bear-market-that-nobody-ever-talks-about/
Picked up a little more LC to average down to $4.54. I think this is an over reaction and am willing to add more if I'm wrong on near term price.
ReplyDeleteSo IBB finds resistance at the 50 dma and the banks all found support at the 50 dma.
ReplyDeleteI ended up tripling down on LC with an avg cost of $4.44. I'm done doing this as my position has gotten fairly large. They have over $2/share in cash and are profitable and growing like a weed. I think it's a great brand and know of a lot of entrepreneurs that advocate using it. I'm not sure if the issues it's having now will hurt them significantly, though, so want to manage the trade properly. I'm thinking it can get back to the low $5's at least but I'm flexible.
ReplyDeleteAlso bought some TBT as its at the low end of its recent range and I think most people have given up on possibility of Fed hikes. Also came across this chart that Jesse posted and it jives with what I've been thinking about this topic. I think too many people are on one side of the boat:
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_54383850.?1462640112
Also looking to buy some UGAZ if Natty breaks above recent highs. It's trapped in a box but if it breaks out I think it could rally another 10-15%.
Ended up taking the hit on LC. Looks like GS and Jefferies are pulling securitization deals until clarity from the SEC. Reminds me a bit of FMD so ill step aside for the time being
ReplyDeleteYesterday the iBovespa plunged -3.5% (and EWZ -4.6%) on 'news' that Rousseff's impeachment vote was 'annulled.' Traders apparently had second thoughts, and both the iBovespa and EWZ recovered to close Monday well off the lows (-1.4% and-1.7%, respectively).
ReplyDeleteToday, the ibovespa rallies +3.42% (and EWZ +5.13%) on 'news' that the Senate will uphold the impeachment vote.
What's really going on? Let's go back to Benny Golson! Bruce Springsteen inducted Bob Dylan into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame with the following comment re Dylan's 'Like A Rolling Stone:' 'That snare shot sounded like somebody'd kicked open the door to your mind.' Much the same can be said for the opening down beat to 'Killer Joe:'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW641zgPOqQ
DJIA +207 points as we head into the final 30 minutes. Crude oil +2.83%. EEM (emerging markets) +1.8%. VT (total world stock market) +1.32%.
I am tempted to take profits here at $26.20 on the UGAZ shares I purchased last Thursday at $23.40. But I have a feeling that tomorrow we'll have a major up day for UNG, it might even break out to new 2-month highs. Does anyone know? :)
ReplyDeleteHa funny I bought at $26.20. I don't usually trade UGAZ this way but it seems to me like nat gas is ready to make a breakout.
DeleteLet's see... I moved my sell limit order from $26.50 to $28. My next sell limit is at $31. Let's see how many of them get hit tomorrow. :)
DeleteNo chickens counting here for me. Not yet.
DeleteA friend of mine bought it at $20 after I mentioned it to him and has held it for weeks now. I guess that's one way of doing it! He also bought UWTI on 2/11 and has held it. I think he said he's up like 150% on it.
I hope your friend will not hold UGAZ for too long, as UGAZ evaporates on fluctuations. UNG closed today exactly at the level where it was at 10:30am on April 20, but UGAZ is 5% below that level now. So in order to make some decent money on UGAZ during a slow uptrend is to hold a small core position and then actively buy every dip and sell every rip.
DeleteDavid, your change in mindset from how you traded from years prior is awesome.
DeleteDavid - I would agree except uwti worked out well for him despite me explaining the same thing to him about that one
DeleteThanks, T3d, but I think you are giving me too much credit here. I have always been inclined toward an "automatic money pump" trading strategy, but in order for it to work, I need to enter when something is very near its bottom. I simply got lucky with UGAZ in the sense that after I entered it, it fell only by 50% :), and after that my money pump started working. I did not get so lucky with oil, though, because I selected the crappiest stocks and half of them (WTI, BCEI) did not return yet to the level at which I purchased them. In the future I'll be selecting only those stocks that have decent balance sheets and have no visible risk of bankruptcy.
DeleteI grabbed some UGAZ at $26.20
ReplyDeleteI ended up bailing on ugaz at 26.23 luckily. I was thinking its best to always buy near 30 or under RSI hourly
ReplyDeleteFWIW - Guy on Canada business news TV this morning talking about how nat gas prices in Canada at least will be under pressure in the short term due to already high inventories and reduced demand from oil sands (many use nat gas to warm the oil to separate from the sand). Not sure how it affects US pricing, but it is an integrated market, so I would expect some of this to flow through. Said prices will come back slowly as oil sands come back on line.
ReplyDeleteDo you guys order stuff on line as much as we do? Pretty much everything but grocery perishables. We've even stopped going to Costco.
ReplyDeleteCostco is a tough one. Amazon will beat them eventually
DeleteThe other day I was in a store buying clothes and I was waiting behind one person in line for 15 minutes. I realized that Amazon is going to rule the world. I don't know why anyone would shopping in a store anymore.
DeleteWe go to Costco most weeks, but that is because we most of our of produce there. But you do tend to spend a lot on other things when there. We go to other grocery stores once or twice a month.
DeleteMy wife shops a lot at TJ Maxx for clothes and home stuff, but other retail stores clothing she orders on-line.
I go to Home Depot quite a lot as it is usually time sensitive when doing projects, but I have ordered power tools online when I can wait.
According to the Census Bureau, it is still only 7.5% of retail sales on-line:
Deletehttps://ycharts.com/indicators/ecommerce_sales_as_percent_retail_sales
I think people online spending to be higher because certain categories like clothes and electronics are a high percent online, but a lot of spending doesn't work on line (yet) like automotive and parts, gasoline, hardware and garden supplies, groceries, furniture, etc.
In Canada, automotive, gasoline and food and beverage are 57% of total retail sales.
Man today is a lucky day for me in ugaz. I grabbed it back at 24.92 after it put in a little base. Good to be lucky.
ReplyDeleteSold at 26.04
DeleteUGAZ again at $25.74. This sucker has had multiple setups today.
ReplyDeleteMike, you are the UGAZ man! :)
ReplyDeleteOne of those days where things work out every time. Wish it was every day!
DeleteI have just reloaded at 7.30 the HLX shares I sold at 8.30. USO is breaking out and should pull HLX with it...
ReplyDeleteSold ugaz at 26.1
ReplyDeleteBought into digital services technology company called Innodata (INOD).
ReplyDeleteIt's a turnaround stock with a good balance sheet and sales are finally increasing and they had their first small profit this morning, so hopefully the start of a bigger trend. IT's a real smallcap, $56 million market cap, $31 million EV, so could move quickly if profitability continues. I'm hoping for a triple out of this.
Thanks for sharing I want to check it out
DeleteThe chart looks very interesting! If I had some extra cash left, I would have bought this one and placed a stop just below the recent lows...
DeleteLong tna 58.42
ReplyDeleteSold at $58.32
DeleteEVTC bought a little as it reports after hours, so dicey.
ReplyDeleteThis one was mentioned in Barron's roundtable earlier this year and BB mentioned it as something he was following prior to barron's. It is a Puerto Rico play on credit card processing if memory serves.
This VRX looks like an interesting setup coming. I suspect they take out the bottom in pretty dramatic fashion and that sets it up for a long.
ReplyDeleteNotable divergence between US indexes and ex-US indexes today.
ReplyDeleteDJIA -206 points, giving back almost all of Tuesday's gains (a significant percentage of today's decline can be attributed to Disney).
On the other hand. A surge in oil prices to a 6-month high (USO +3.3%) has helped to further drive stocks in Russia (RSX +2.16%) and Brazil (EWZ +0.53%), which in turn has managed to keep EEM (emerging markets) above water.
So my intuition about UNG making a major up move today was not correct. Maybe too many other traders had that intuition and were already positioned for the move up. Many of them were shaken out at the open, some more were shaken out during the late morning drop. As of right now, UNG kept making higher intraday lows over the past 4 days, so a major up move is still possible for tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteMarket sure looks like it's rolling over again to me if you just look at bigger picture with continuing lower highs. Neither side is getting follow thru thoug
ReplyDeletePicked up some TNA after hours at $57.63. Russell Futures hit oversold on hourly chart.
ReplyDeleteSome random things I recently ordered on AMZN and got all with in 2 days. Sunday included.
ReplyDeleteCar floor mats
Vitamin Water Zero
Bulk taco seasoning
Face cream
tooth paste
razor blades
underwear
tshirt
patio chairs
tv
I'm telling you this stock is going to keep going up.
DeleteOne thing people miss is the amount of search revenues they will get from product ads on their site. They are going to grow this exponentially as more and more retailers move to their platform. Google is in a tougher spot as a result
AMZN revenues up 28% last quarter
Deletegross profit up 40%
operating income up 321%
Leverage
Wow - never would have thought of buying toothpaste or most of the stuff you listed from Amazon, but when I look at the web site, the prices are good. I will have to spend more time looking there and see if I can make use of it.
DeleteRe Retail in general, I only own a small position in a niche Canadian retailer, which is very cheap, and I'm not married to the position. But also, the negative chatter on TV and the web is getting over the top the last while, so if somebody can come out with good numbers, should be lots of fuel for an upside move.
Yeah Mark, I buy about 70% of my stuff on Amazon and also use their subscribe and save service.
DeleteGenerally if you can find the items at Costco its much cheaper from my experience.
T3d,
ReplyDeletethought the EVTC numbers were pretty solid. Looks like they were a bit better than analystrs expected. I like the business they are in and the valuation is good. The stock buyback has been suspended until they get audited financials out - they are having some issues around timing of expenses, or maybe it was revenues, but not a major issue. But once this starts up again, will help support the stock. Missed the concall today, so hope to read on Seeking Alpha in the morning.
I had to go out when the numbers were just report stock popped to 13.65, I suppose tomorrow will see how they reacted to conference call.
DeleteGrabbed ugaz at 26.4 ahead of the report.
ReplyDeleteSold tna
Added some more ugaz at 26.1
DeleteSold ugaz for a whopping $100 gain
DeleteGot lunch covered at least.
DeleteI have to run, but closed all of my SPY/QQQ at about +4%. I'll explain later.
ReplyDeleteDoomsday is coming
DeleteBB, EVTC, kinda of all over the place. Here is a overview:
ReplyDeleteEvertec
Evertec (EVTC) is trading 1% higher today after reporting Q1 results last night. Since you're probably not familiar, some background would help. Evertec, which is based in Puerto Rico, is the largest processor of payment transactions in Latin America and the Caribbean. Evertec processes over 2 billion transactions annually, and manages the electronic payment network for thousands of ATMs. Evertec is the largest merchant acquirer in the Caribbean and Central America.
Evertec owns and operates the ATH network, one of the leading ATM and PIN debit networks in Latin America. In addition, the company provides a comprehensive suite of services for core bank processing, cash processing and technology outsourcing. Its customers include financial institutions, merchants, corporations and government agencies.
Prior to September 2010, Evertec was 100% owned by Puerto Rico-based Popular, Inc. (BPOP), the largest financial institution in the Caribbean. Evertec operated substantially as an independent entity within Popular. In September 2010, private equity firm Apollo Management acquired a 51% interest in Evertec.
Shortly thereafter, Evertec began to transition into a separate, stand-alone entity. As a stand-alone company, Evertec made substantial investments in its technology and infrastructure, recruited various senior executives, enhanced its profitability through targeted productivity and cost savings actions and broadened its footprint beyond the markets historically served. EVTC then made its IPO debut in April 2013.
Turning to the Q1 results, non-GAAP EPS grew 8% YoY to $0.41, which was slightly above market expectations. Revenue rose 4.5% year/year to $95.5 mln, which also was a bit above market expectations. In terms of guidance, EVTC raised its FY16 guidance for both non-GAAP EPS and revenue. For non-GAAP EPS, EVTC now expects it to come in at $1.59-1.66 vs prior guidance of $1.57-1.64. Revenue guidance was increased to $378-385 mln from prior guidance of $373-380 mln.
Breaking down the revenue by operating segment, Merchant Acquiring revenue was $22.9 mln, an increase of 14% YoY, driven by the addition of the FirstBank merchant business as well as sales volume growth in the quarter. Payment Processing revenue was $27.0 mln, up 2% YoY, reflecting an increase in transactions processed over the ATH debit network and revenue related to the Processa acquisition. Business Solutions revenue was $45.6 mln, up 2% YoY, reflecting additional volumes in core banking and increased revenue from IT consulting projects.
One thing about EVTC is that is has strong margins. Adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 came in at 48.2%, down a bit from 50.0% in the prior year period, but still quite robust. The decrease was primarily driven by a change in revenue mix, increased business to business operating taxes, increased health insurance expenses, and increased investment expense related to Latin America and card processing product initiatives.
continued:
DeleteOverall, it was as decent quarter for EVTC. The debt situation in Puerto Rico has definitely been an overhang on the stock. In addition to the debt payment default announced earlier this month, the Puerto Rican government is closely managing its payments. The good news is that EVTC continues to see its government receivables paid consistent with past experience. But they are monitoring the government situation closely.
From a longer term perspective, EVTC should benefit from the ongoing migration from cash and checks to electronic payments. The penetration of electronic payments in the markets where Evertec operates is significantly lower relative to more mature US and European markets. This ongoing shift offers some compelling growth opportunities. In particular, Evertec sees significant growth in a number of large markets such as Colombia, Mexico, Chile and Argentina. Also, EVTC pays a nice dividend, with a current yield of 3.0%.
With that said, investors should be cautious given EVTC's high exposure to Puerto Rico and the problems the country is having in terms of its debt load. The stock will likely continue to be weighed down on this issue until it gets resolved.
Man that's playing far out at the deep end of the pool with that one.
DeleteTOF moving to the middle of the pool SAN has a decent chart pattern here perhaps its bottomed for now.
DeleteWow that looks great. Thanks for the heads up. Good trade location. Same with DB
DeleteI'm kidding about doomsday but curious to know what your take is Mark.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I've mentioned before is where will the profit growth in the market come from when AAPL drops earnings. I guess the answer is energy and Amazon.
Grabbed some NFLX at $87.66 just in case this was a fakeout.
ReplyDeleteTBT was up all day. Could be just a bounce off the bottom but as long as it stays above the recent range it could provide some support for the banks.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete