Here we go. The latest story to cross the tape on Marketwatch:
'Wall Street Banks See a Painful Summer for Stocks Ahead'
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-banks-see-a-painful-summer-for-stocks-ahead-2016-05-16
Excerpt:
'If you gathered a group of stock analysts in a room, odds are each analysts would have a different view on the market.
'So when analysts from three big investment banks are on the same page, it might pay to listen.
'Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan are all urging investors to rotate out of equities because they see a painful summer ahead.'
A significant number percentage of investors/traders will read the article, decide it makes sense, and dump their holdings (straight into the hands of prop traders at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan!). Come October, the global stock index will probably be substantially higher, and the same analysts will recommend buying (pretty much the same shares you sold them back in May!).
It can't be that simple ;)
It often is that simple.
ReplyDeletecrazy stuff. definitely feels too consensus. sentiment is conducive to a rally, just need signs of growth
DeleteLong pbr at 7.1
ReplyDeleteEnded up taking PBR off at $7.20 and FCX at $11.60 earlier and buying LABD at $44.55. I sold SAM for a loss right at the open and bought and sold WFM for a small loss (I think this one is a good one to hold, though, on pullbacks, as I like their strategy of opening up bar/restaurants in their locations as a way to maximum retail space).
ReplyDeleteI still think it's too early to trust that moves will stick.
TOL's chart looks solid.
ReplyDeleteSold labd at $45.8.
ReplyDeleteBack in FCX and pbr at 11.44 and 7.1
ReplyDeleteHard to get super bearish with oil up so much
DeleteIf the market was a pool game, then Wall Street bankers are setting up their marks using today's Fed comments re a June rate hike.
ReplyDelete(a) Global markets were in positive territory until comments from two Fed officials 'sparked worries of a possible rate hike as early as June.' Those remarks sent the DJIA tumbling -200 points.
(b) Combined with headline stories such as yesterday's 'painful summer' article, Nellies are unloading stocks and/or buying puts.
(c) In my opinion, none of the media stories are reporting anything new. A June rate hike has been on the table since last year! Worries about slowing growth in China has been making the rounds since 2008. Elevated valuations? Hey, let's ask John Hussman to explain why the market has been overvalued since 2010!
(d) The most realistic worry in my opinion would be the decline in earnings reported in Q1. However, I have a different take on that. US companies derive roughly half of their earnings from foreign sales. The $USD has spiked +20% against foreign currencies since 2014. In addition, outside of the energy/commodities sectors, combined sales of companies in the S&P500 are actually at new highs. If we strip out the effect of dollar strength and look at corporate profits ex-energy, then hey- we have relatively healthy growth in revenue.
Let's see how the pool game plays out.
I should provide proper attribution for (d) above.
Deletehttp://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2016/05/are-poor-sales-and-profit-growth.html
Good take. Something Jeff Saut talks about regularly.
DeleteThe dollar is actually down year on year so not sure you can exclude that. Also think it's dangerous to exclude entire parts of the market in this analysis. Almost like only looking for evidence that supports your bias.
Added to my long term position in amzn at 696
ReplyDeleteEnded up just taking my trading positions off at the close. Probably the wrong thing to do since nothing has really broken down. Well I guess the RUT did but DJX closed in line with prior lows a couple of days ago and everything is still holding up. If anything it's probably a buy here.
ReplyDeleteYou have almost four hours to reconsider. As you know, most of the market's gains occur over a relatively small number of days throughout the year. In addition, more recently most of the market's gains have occurred overnight (ie, via gaps up), leaving sidelined traders in the dust.
DeleteAre you advocating going triple leveraged I the rut cuz I will if you convince me :)
DeleteI do have a 10% position in Amazon that I'm not selling so I have some exposure. Plus I made about 2.5% today thanks to FCX and I have been trying my best to minimize risk after big up days since I seem to give those gains back quickly in this chopfest
DeleteI'm not trying to convince you. Just saying that in my opinion longs are better positioned than shorts right now. And of course I'm not a fan of leveraged funds.
Deletehttp://seekingalpha.com/news/3183756-soros-doubles-bet-s-and-p-500?source=email_rt_mc_readmore&uprof=45#email_link
DeleteThat strengthens the bull case (in my opinion).
I think I agree with you. Oh and by the way Soros has been buying those puts for several years now.
DeleteHe is probably just hedging his exposure elsewhere...
DeleteI don't why Soros continues to put his reputation on the line. The guy who broke the Bank of England? Hey, that's enough! He has more money than he can spend in a lifetime. Move on to the next thing.
DeleteThe dollar was high in Q1 and is down from that so far in Q2 and Q2 is lower than it was all on Q2, 2015. That will help multi-national profits, so should be a tailwind for markets.
ReplyDeleteExactly. The next set of earnings may be the nail in the coffin for bears.
DeleteThat's one option many gurus fail to consider. They know it's mostly luck. After that, it's a coin toss. Hussman could have closed his fund in 2009 and retired with portfolio and reputation intact. And Soros could have walked away in 1992, an enigmatic legend in his own time.
ReplyDeleteSaw this video link posted on another blog and thought of you guys ...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WEtxJ4-sh4&feature=youtu.be
from https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/05/16/monday-update-503/
Where are CP & T3D????
Looks like they sold the impeachment news from last week. Bzq went from $30 to $35 in past week. Will be interesting to see how much more they drive Brazil down. My guess is significantly
ReplyDeleteSEDG- Sold the add shares I bought at 18.22 at 19.10.
ReplyDeleteLong FCX 11.12
ReplyDeleteLong SBUX at $54.82.
ReplyDeleteDaytrades for now...
The title of this post is true...it is indeed a Circle Game.
ReplyDeleteI grabbed TASR hoping for a momo run today. Fed could squash it. Long $20.97 on rumors of NOC buyout. I've been in and out of this for a while and have believed it was a buyout candidate so could be some truth to this rumor.
ReplyDeleteLong BIIB at $265.
ReplyDeleteHere we go again. Rates starting up a little bit and my overweight financials working really well. Let's see if the rate rise sticks this time or the Fed backs down again. Markets seem more receptive to rates going up this time and not panicking down like they have in the past, so maybe they are ready this time.
ReplyDeleteHope so, hard to see how I get ahead of the market this year without this.
And forgot to mention, commodities and the US$ not doing too much either, so implies maybe a rate hike is priced into the markets.
DeleteSold TASR at $21.20.
ReplyDeleteSo has the bull market in NG ended? Here is what EIA had to say last week, which probably caused NG prices to tumble:
ReplyDelete"Natural gas working inventories were 2,625 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on April 29, which was 49% higher than a year earlier, and 47% higher than the previous five-year (2011-15) average for that week. April is typically the beginning of the inventory injection season, which runs through October. EIA projects natural gas inventories will be 4,158 Bcf at the end of October 2016, which would be the highest end-of-October level on record."
But then, the Big Money Traders knew all that stuff already...
I guess timing now is the issue with the rate news.
ReplyDeleteI think we're setting up for another sharp pullback...not sure how deep...maybe another 7% or so. I suspect its going to get really choppy here for the next few months.
DeleteGot stopped out of FCX at $10.8 and got stopped out of SBUX at breakeven. I tried LABD but lost money on that. Today was yet another reminder that I should stay on sidelines if I make money as it has become too choppy to do well consistently.
ReplyDeleteTurbulence.
ReplyDeleteStock indexes posted a steady rise for most of the day. At 11 am (pst), minutes to the last Fed meeting were released, and odds of a June rate hike suddenly spiked. The S&P500 reversed a +10-point gain and promptly declined to print a -10-point loss. However, it ended the day unchanged (a fractional point higher). This is not to say nothing changed. A great deal occurred. The market flushed out a ton of 'bad company,' and if/when a June rate hike materializes the indexes may actually rally!
CSCO +6% after hours. I'll bet no one saw that coming.
ReplyDeleteOh the hubris:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/ecb-can-still-pull-rabbits-out-of-the-hat-council-member-says
“Markets say the ECB is done, their box is empty,” Vasiliauskas, who heads Lithuania’s central bank, said in an interview on Tuesday in Vilnius. “But we are magic people. Each time we take something and give to the markets -- a rabbit out of the hat.”
http://patch.com/massachusetts/worcester/113-makes-goldie-michelsen-oldest-woman-country-0
ReplyDeleteLots of retailers with big bounces this morning - WMT, AEO, URBN
ReplyDeleteThings got too negative and news not as bad as anticipated.
SPY- Scary spot here if you look at the 20,50,100,200 EMA's like I do.
ReplyDeleteWY- Exact same thing.
SPWR- 4 year low.
DeleteTheir earnings have been dog shit so not a surprise. Wonder where it stops though. Probably worth taking a shot soon on a longer term basis but would like to see a base built first. Learned my lesson last year buying down trends in MMYT and BITA
DeleteThis is bullish though...
ReplyDeleteDowntown Josh Brown 32m32 minutes ago
Global portfolio managers holding the most cash since February lows, the fall of Lehman, post 9/11
Yeah it is bullish but the market is overvalued and earnings are dropping.
DeleteThe Fed seems intent on raising rates so maybe a historical market multiple of 16.5 times trailing earnings is appropriate? That's 1700.
DeleteThere's a really good futures trader that I follow that has been looking for new bull market highs:
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com
Check out his track record:
Percentage gains calculated based on one contract traded per $10,000 of account equity and are net of $5 per round turn commission.
Profits are NOT used to increase position size.
Year 2008 gain: 129%
Year 2009 gain: 133%
Year 2010 gain: 20%
Year 2011 gain: 81%
Year 2012 gain: 12%
Year 2013 gain: 29%
Year 2014 gain : 59%
Year 2015 gain: 169%
Year 2016 gain thru January: 164%
He nailed the down move earlier this year as well as the move back up so his returns are really high in 2016.
DeleteWow, that's amazing.
DeleteNot saying the guy is not good, do not know, but are these returns audited?
DeleteDo not have the time but I wonder if one took the returns per day for 2016 each day if they would add up to 164% which would make the trader perfect.
Just saying.
Not sure T3. I've followed him for about 4 years and he's very good. I use him and a handful of other guys just to see where they're crying uncle or breakout.
DeleteThanks, TOF, for $25 I may check him out. Always liked getting inside traders head as to how they approach market's.
DeleteAlso this may be helpful for your short term trading and worth doing on a 2 hour chart and daily chart. Add a 7 sma or 7 ema, I use both when price breaks above it almost always denotes ST trend change and tends to make money more times than not. Look at POT today and QCOM for examples.
Reuters U.S. News @ReutersUS 11m11 minutes ago
ReplyDeleteGolf star Mickelson named in insider trading scheme with Dean Foods ex-chairman, pro-gambler http://reut.rs/20azKjz
Grabbed some TNA at $54. Take a look at the market in 1994. There were WILD swings as the Fed started raising rates. Given how beaten down things are on a shorter term time frame, willing to take a risk here for a short term (1-5 days) trade.
ReplyDeleteWMT, last tow trading days, what do you think boy's?
ReplyDeleteQCOM and STT, gun to head being accumulated.
Bought some AMD after hours at $3.77.
ReplyDeleteSome sentiment indicators show people are pretty bearish on the market.
ReplyDeleteFrom Detrick: AAII bulls down to 19.3%, it was 19.2% the week of the Feb lows (that was near the lowest in 20 years).
But others aren't so bad. I think generally sentiment is bearish, so good for the market, and if we get some upward momentum, I think you see a lot of money chasing, but not extreme bearishness.
I also think the market is fairly to undervalued, compared to a sub-2% 10-year treasury and a 3.3% investment grade bond (LQD). Even a 20 p/e is a 5% investment yield, so if people believe in companies, they will pay up rather than take low bond yields.
ReplyDeleteMost value guys I follow say things like "the market is fairly valued given interest rates, but there are more than enough cheap stocks to build a portfolio". I agree and you really don;'t need to own expensive stocks.
Was watching CNBC yesterday and guys were jumping all over a value investor for saying he wouldn't pay more than 10 or 12 times for a company, but they all thought JNJ with its 20 p/e was a great buy because of it's 3% dividend.
It's stocks like JNJ which get hurt in the next part of the market as rates rise.
Slingshot.
ReplyDeleteWe're stretched to the downside, with enough negativity to launch the DJIA back >18000 from here. Just my opinion.
Mark, is this MOG?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/19/oil-production-wont-meet-demand-in-5-years-fmr-shell-ceo.html
Literally?
DeleteES, SPX - Excellent Fib-Draw on 1hr to go with the Wyckoff Spring from yday:
ReplyDeletehttp://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_55221159.?1463743061
http://stocktwits.com/TheFibDoctor
Gap Up.
ReplyDeleteMost global indexes/ETFs set to gap up above (several well above) Thursday's highs.
@carlfutia
ReplyDeletesupport today is at 2035. The ES is headed for 2055 and then to 2063.
Take a look at verniman's 2nd chart LVN-HVN map ... shows the layout of the terrain.
Deletehttp://verniman.blogspot.com/
Similar to pinball isn't it???
2nd was right with the title of this post
DeleteES - had a 1-tick breach of the LVN 2055.25 from Wednesday's profile then rotation back down to the LVN 2052.25 just now. Trapped in the HVN between these 2 LVN's.
DeleteLet's waste a few bears!
ReplyDeleteSince it's Friday, we could also get wasted on a few beers.
DeleteHa that's how I read it first.
DeleteSold TNA at $57.02
ReplyDeleteNice one-day trade.
DeleteThanks. I'm back to cash for the next fat pitch.
DeleteGood one bro.
DeleteHow are you doing YTD?
DeleteI'm up about 20% YTD. It's been volatile enough to win with my current strategy of not holding things long term and keeping lots of cash but I doubt it lasts
DeleteHow are you faring? The euro banks look awesome man. Just valuation isn't great vs us banks
DeleteAnother good quote from Jeff Saut
ReplyDelete“The past 19 months have been the most difficult stock market I have ever experienced in more than 50 years of investing,” said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at St. Petersburg, Florida-based Raymond James Financial Inc., which oversees $500 billion. In bear markets, “at least we knew stocks were going to go down. However, over the past 19 months the up one session, and down the next, has been extraordinarily frustrating.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-20/clock-ticks-on-bull-market-with-no-new-high-for-stocks-in-1-year
p/s supporting the Mike's idea markets are overvalued - http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/?p=11107
ReplyDeleteIt's kind of offset by the high margins in the market now, but is indicative of higher risk that something bad could happen.
Just finished reading Jessie's email. I pretty much agree with what he's suggesting and suppose I'm trying to but in again closer to the bottom of the 'box'...if that makes sense.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete