5/25/16 Corrective Lenses-> Long Live The Bull

I scan through dozens of market commentaries each day, with an emphasis on market views which differ from my own.  Occasionally I come across one which truly sparks the imagination.

Mark Hulbert (last night) casually brought up the possibility that the 2009 bull ended in May 2015, which was then followed by a correction that now stretches over a year:

 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-next-for-the-longest-stock-market-correction-in-history-2016-05-24

'The bull is dead.  Long live the bull!'

I can almost guarantee that the article will go unnoticed by the vast majority of traders.  Moreover, the vast majority of those who actually read the article will dismiss it.  In which case there's a very good chance Hulbert is right.  In a year or two, the media will (re)discover Hulbert's prescient 'take' and grant him kudos for calling the start of the 2016 bull.  A very fitting start, in fact, to this century's version of the Roaring Twenties.

It's all well and good to back Hulbert's view, and to further leverage his take into a Roaring Twenties scenario.  But how likely is it?  After all, most of the commentators I follow are adamant that stock sales are inevitable as retiring Boomers begin mandatory (or necessary) withdrawals.  The problem with that consensus opinion?  It's inflexible and narrow-minded.

Here's a more optimistic alternative view:

(a) A few Boomers have saved enough for retirement.  The vast majority have not.
(b) The Fed (many themselves Boomers) are well aware of the above.
(c) They are also well aware that Social Security and Medicare budgets are stretched.
(d) Japan is facing a similar demographic crisis, and has taken steps toward pension reform.  Basically-> 'risk on.'
(e) I think the US follows suit.
(f) If/when (and in my opinion it will be when) Congress approves a 'risk on' approach to managing Social Security and Medicare funds, we will have another perfect market outcome.  That is to say, the market will have fooled the majority of investors.  The DJIA may well rise to 30000, eclipsing budget deficits on its way to creating record budget surpluses.  In this case, both Congress and Boomers win as well.