'After a long
hiatus, George Soros has returned to trading, lured by opportunities to profit
from what he sees as coming economic troubles.
'Worried about the
outlook for the global economy and concerned that large market shifts may be at
hand, the billionaire hedge-fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a
series of big, bearish investments, according to people close to the matter.
'Soros Fund
Management LLC, which manages $30 billion for Soros and his family, sold stocks
and bought gold and shares of gold miners, anticipating weakness in various
markets. Investors often view gold as a haven during times of turmoil.'
As much as I respect Soros' earlier track record, my take
here is that he's in danger of denting his family portfolio. At age 85, it's time to stop making 'big,
bearish' bets, especially given the major role that luck plays in most
successful trading careers. He may be
right. But realistically, he's probably
at least as likely to be wrong.
The Soros story made headlines on several financial sites
this morning, which probably contributed to the -90-point selloff in the DJIA
(now well off the lows). The market is
always in the process of separating the wheat (strong hands) from the
chaff.
I agree with this take. The market has been on a helluva run and some sectors like biotech and energy got way overdone on the upside in the very short term so there's a chance for a pullback, but sentiment is atrocious and I still look at the fact that we're up only like 30% in the past 17 years (granted the prior 17 were a cool +1200%).
ReplyDeleteIn the past several weeks I have heard GS, MS, and Citigroup all warn of a crash. When was the last time this happened immediately after such warnings?
Ended up buying back 1/2 position in FCX at $10.89 after hours. I think it probably takes another leg lower to the low $10's but this has been trading much like UGAZ was up and down and using the hourly oversold readings worked well with that just like it has with this one. I think FCX is in a new significant bull market and will be in the $20 range in a year.
ReplyDeleteYes, the FCX chart does look good. I placed a buy limit order for it at $10.50. With a stop at 10, this seems like a low-risk entry.
DeleteI believe there's still a gap at 9.8ish so I'm aiming for that to add
DeleteThe order was filled. Now let's if if the gap fills as well. Probably the safest stop, so as not to be shaken out by noise, would be at the early April low...
DeletePicked up some UVXY at 10.32 after hours.
ReplyDeleteSold uvxy at 11.22
ReplyDeleteNice trade.
DeleteYep! Nice foresight! You should have explained your motivations for buying UVXY -- maybe then we would have followed you. :)
DeleteWow - RE: YELP:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C67Lh4LE5LY&feature=iv&src_vid=t65dfO8vZTA&annotation_id=annotation_1577707331
I like the dictionary definition of pushback: ‘a negative or unfavorable response.’ The DJIA -150 points. EEM (emerging markets) -2.5%. EWZ (Brazil) -3.69%. ASHR (China ‘A’ Shares) -1.97%. RSX (Russia) -3.12%. What exactly are investors responding to? Nothing, really. It’s just the way they are. I’m not worried about it.
ReplyDeleteMSFT buying LNKD for $196 - big premium.
ReplyDeleteBut even with that, most buyers in the last 2.5 years are underwater.
DeleteI managed to get a trade in today on TWTR thinking they would run it on this news. I think TWTR does become a buyout target but probably not until it hits low double digits. Plus, this deal probably means MSFT is out of the running for TWTR.
DeleteI wonder if this cycle is the same as the last bull market cycle where there was a peak and then MSFT pays (or at least tries to overpay) for a tech company...last cycle was YHOO
Pretty severe market boredom here. Still long full positions in SEDG and AAPL.
ReplyDeleteRyan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick 23m23 minutes ago
ReplyDeleteThe VIX is up more than 40% the past two days. Since '90, has done that only 14 other times.
Jeez. I should have held UVXY. It's up 50% in 2 days
DeleteMarkets rarely bottom on a Friday. Stocks continued to be sold across the globe on Monday. I can foresee a scenario where the entire 2016 rally is retraced to mid-February levels prior to launching a new leg to new highs. Obviously, that would inflict enormous pain on bulls. If we had a preponderance of bulls, that would be my 'high odds' take. I'm not convinced we have many bulls.
ReplyDeleteCarl Futia has been looking for a 100point downdraft in the S&P after hitting the 2,110 area, which he nailed. This was his post today and its been similar for a week or so:
Delete"September S&P E-mini Futures: Support stands at the June 3 low of 2074. Any obvious weakness below that level would be strong evidence that the ES is headed for its May 19 low of 2013. Trader sentiment remains very bullish and I think the market must rebuild its wall of worry before a move above last year’s high at 2134 materializes."
$CPCE got fairly extreme when the market rallied to 2110 or so which was a good sign there were indeed lots of bulls. I think measuring based on sentiment readings is less reliable these days due to it being what people say (vs do). Put/call stuff is based on what people are actually doing so I wonder if that's more reliable.
I like his commentary on bonds:
Delete"TNX (ten year note yield): We probably have seen the low 10 year yield for the year. I think that the 10 year yield will reach 3.00% during the next 12 months. "
Changed his mind (which is fair of course):
Delete"TNX (ten year note yield): I now think we may not have seen the low 10 year yield for the year given the bearish trend in stock prices. A drop back to the 2012 low at 1.39% looks very likely."
Got stopped out of my remaining NM shares at $1. The average cost for this bunch was $1.10. But I had already sold an even larger bunch of shares $1.07 that I purchased at $0.93, so overall my excursion into NM was a positive one. :) Now I have more cash to deploy if even better bargains arise. Also, if NM rises above $1.05 soon, I'll try to repurchase it again.
ReplyDeletePicked up some MOS at 26.19 now, to complement the calls I purchased before. I am working on the assumption that MOS has bottomed...
ReplyDeleteRe the rebuilding of that wall of worry. The markets are making 'steep' progress rebuilding that wall, and IMO it's all good.
ReplyDeleteIf markets sell off on 'Leave,' it's a buying opp.
DeleteI'm hoping for an entry around SPX 2000.
DeleteJust when traders position themselves for a breakdown? The markets pull a fast one! The Shanghai Composite reverses an early selloff to close +1.58%. The same 'memo' circulates around the globe, with Bombay +1.25%, Paris/London/ Sao Paolo +1%. Just waiting for US indexes to catch up. DJIA +65 points (+0.31%), EEM (emerging markets) +1.56%, EWZ (Brazil) +1.55%, FXI (China 'H' Shares) +1%, RSX (Russia) +1.63%.
ReplyDeleteI'm also with Mark - market is pretty boring. It's like everyone has made their bets and is waiting for something to happen - maybe Brexit is freezing a lot of money, hard to say, but better to just be patient in my mind - trying to force stuff more often just gets you into trouble.
ReplyDeleteGrabbed some Twtr on the dip
ReplyDeleteJust thinking that at $10.8Billion (4x sales) for the 9th most trafficked web property in the world the upside is pretty high. LNKD got bought out for 8x sales. Not saying TWTR should be worth the same but I think this traffic would add some value to bigger guys looking for access to a social network with free global advertising on a daily basis.
DeleteAlso technically the stock made a bottom and has put in higher lows and the volume on the recent up move has been really high.
DeleteEnded up taking a larger position in TWTR...
DeleteIn case you didn't see, Futia calling for TWTR back to $10
DeleteYeah I did. Hopefully the p/s argument holds water and beats technicals. It's a fairly easy trade to manage.
DeleteAnother curve ball! Overnight futures in the DJIA dip to -80 points, followed by an early morning selloff approaching -170 points. Heading into the final hour, the DJIA is +243 points off the intraday low and in positive territory (+73 points).
ReplyDeleteThis has been the difficulty for most investors: there is no easy (re)entry point. Yesterday's close at the lows would have (reasonably, and as it happens correctly) led one to expect further weakness today. However, most investors (as well as all mutual funds) trade end of day. The early morning reversal/ late day rally make it impossible to catch the bulk of today's move.
I continue to think a 'buy and hold' approach is what's working in 2016.
Maybe things getting ready to change:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-13/stock-bulls-lock-on-momentum-flashing-first-buy-signal-since-09
I would agree with the 'psychological reset' theory.
DeleteNearing the end of a volatile week. We continue to see 'reversion to the mean' type divergences. The DJIA and SPX are off -0.45, but EEM (emerging markets) holding up nicely (flat), buoyed by gains in EWZ (Brazil) +1.49%, RSX (Russia) +1.52%, and USO (oil) +3.2%. Asian exchanges and European bourses green across the board.
ReplyDeleteNice to see ORCL not crashing on earnings, for a change! :)
ReplyDeleteSLX might have made a higher low this week. Just bought some at $26.80 and placed a sell stop at this week's low of $25.50.
ReplyDeleteWY- Still like this to test 26.50ish.
ReplyDeleteSDS (double inverse S&P 500) now the largest leveraged ETF - good for stocks:
ReplyDeleteTBT's (double bear 20 year treasuries) outflows have helped cut its size in half - maybe means bonds can finally start down.
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160617/FREE/160619921/fear-of-stock-market-collapse-dictating-etf-flows
VXX looks interesting here again (thanks TOF) long 14.55
ReplyDeleteTSLA makes offer to buy SCTY. Where have we seen this before??? :)
ReplyDeleteSpent the last week up in Ottawa - Canada's Capital City. Went golfing, hiking cycling, but the cycling here is the best I've ever been on. Have over 100 miles of bike trails, mostly off-road and paved, well marked, and a great variety of rides along rivers, canals and up into the Gatineau Mountains. Plus 60 miles of mountain biking trails. Lot of government money at work here, but great fun if you ever get up this way.
ReplyDeleteVXX out @15.10 will reboot in the 14.80's
ReplyDeletewent long QCOM yesterday at 53.87 like it LT
DeleteSounds like a nice trip Brent.
ReplyDeleteAnother boring day with not much movement in the markets. Maybe after the Brexit vote tonight, things will start moving again. They definitely will if Britain votes to Leave, but even if they vote to stay, that could remove the overhang on the markets and get things moving.
ReplyDeleteNew all time within the week is my bet.
DeletePicked up some CAKE today on a relative valuation discount vs CBRL / BJRI. Plus I've never seen one of their locations without a huge line at dinner. Now holding AMZN, TWTR and CAKE.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete