Just my opinion. Endless media iterations of [Brexit + a Trump Presidency] = [something along the lines of 'the end of the world'] almost guarantee that we're witnessing the birth of a new global bull market. Let's use VT (Vanguard Total World Stock Market) as a gauge.
VT closed today at an even 60. A 'bad' but still useful prediction of 15% per year compounded over the next five years yields (1.15)^5=2. So I expect VT to double in price to an even 120 by November 2021.
Adding more NMM under $2. They guided for $84M (vs $160M mkt cap) in FCF in 2017 at abysmally low rates. This one might actually hold its gains is my thinking...
ReplyDeleteRSI is sky high so caution is warranted. However, I'm always reminded of this chart coming out of the 2009 downturn, which shippers have gone through their own 2008 type crash:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PIR&p=D&st=2008-01-01&en=2009-06-03&id=p77771308267
Yes, given the way DRYS has spiked, NMM might have more room to run. I also decided to buy some shares right before closing at $2.08 and placed a sell stop limit at today's lows, $1.9/$1.85
Delete2017 options expiration calendar some may want.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.optionsclearing.com/components/docs/about/publications/xcal2017.pdf
BHP hit my sell stop at $36 today for the shares I purchased yesterday at $36.33. So far this looks like a case where a stop was useful. :)
ReplyDeleteThe EEM chart suggests that the post-election downswing in emerging markets might be over. Prior to the close, I moved 1/5 of my 401k from a cash-equivalent fund into LZEMX.
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye on that sentiment chart that I've posted in the past. Just google it. I think you're seeing the Aversion phase as it makes its run back up to old highs from a few years ago. So I agree to buy
DeleteI find it interesting that "Aversion" is a V.
DeleteAdding TRIP to my watchlist - back down to $50 now. Still expensive and probably won't get down to a price that I like, but would be willing to pay up some for it given it's very strong position and the possibilities of monetizing it's information, particularly in mobile, like FB did. Love to see it in the $20's, but even in the $30's I'd take a small bite.
ReplyDeleteFrom my supplier in China:
ReplyDelete"But these days, the raw material including box, steel, board, parts etc, all keep increasing crazily, so only if we place order to the box supplier right away otherwise they can not guarantee a price to be valid long, so we can not tell an exact price at this moment without expectable orders.
Below is just the steel cost trend for your reference, it's said that it will keep increasing trend for a while... so we also like remind you to consider this situation and make order plans accordingly, which will help both of us to get better prepared and save our costs, frankly we can not either guarantee the current price all the time if the material keep rocketing. Hope your kind understanding, thanks."
She showed a chart of the steel price and it was up 100% from last year.
Peculating Inflation?
DeleteNMM is a beast, trust you were able to sell some on the wild swing.
Sold CX for now.
ReplyDeleteRyan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick 46m46 minutes ago
ReplyDeleteRussell 2000 up 13.3% the past 10 days. >13% 21 other times (including clusters). A month later? Higher 20 times ...
Any indication of how much higher? per average higher
DeleteAh:
DeleteRemoving clusters, Russell 2000 up >13% in 10 days only 6 times (now is 7). Good news? 1 mo later up +6% on avg and higher 5 of 6 times.
NMM -- was stopped out today at $1.90. Why couldn't it hold its morning gains, like DRYS? :)
ReplyDeleteRough day for the shippers. I held on to my NMM and didn't sell, unfortunately. Basically back to where it was yesterday. Was tempted to sell at $2.80 but if the dry index holds up then NMM should eventually go higher.
ReplyDeleteWow, DRYS has erased all of its amazing gains! That was really something! Now I am glad that I bought NMM yesterday rather than DRYS! :)
DeleteDRYS - big money maker for some, but dangerous game for most
DeleteGood article on China:
ReplyDeletehttp://splash247.com/dry-bulk-spark/
For you Copper guys - TD Investment Conclusion
ReplyDelete■ It is not just a Trump rally - The blame for the surge in copper prices over the past
week is largely being laid at the feet of Donald Trump's election and his pledge
to invest heavily in US infrastructure. But we believe that there is more to it than
that. To put a potential surge in infrastructure spending in the US into perspective,
if we assume that demand growth rates in the U.S. doubles from current levels
of ~1.5% per annum, the net impact on global copper demand would be ~30,000
tonnes per year. And that is not enough to move the needle in a 20 million tonne
per year global market.
■ Copper rally started before Trump elected - The copper price started to move
higher during LME Week (October 31–November 4), as market participants
acknowledged that demand growth in China this year has been better than
expected (Wood Mackenzie is projecting 4% y/y growth in 2016) and that global
inventories are declining. Since the beginning of October, LME copper inventories
have dropped 31%, or more than 110,000 tonnes, while SHFE copper stocks have
declined by ~7.5% or 9,000 tonnes. The supply surge in 2016 is also running its
course, with most of the larger new supply sources (Las Bambas, Cerro Verde
mill expansion, Sentinel, etc.) now at or close to full run rates. After a mine supply
increase of 4% y/y in 2016, supply growth is projected at approximately +1% y/
y in 2017.
■ Too much, too soon - The surge in the copper price has moderated over the past
week from the peak of US$2.70/lb reached on November 11, but is still up 15%
from the start of October at US$2.52/lb. We believe that part of the move is based
on fundamentals, part is speculation and part is driven by copper playing catchup
after being a significant laggard versus other commodities YTD. The move
higher does appear to be excessive and we would expect some retracement as
the positive Trump effect starts to lose steam and investors ponder the potential
negative Trump effect of restrictive trade policies and a stronger dollar.
■ Who has leverage to higher 2017 copper prices? Among the larger Canadian
copper producers, Turquoise Hill has the best copper leverage, off a very low
base, to higher 2017 copper prices. The next best leveraged is Lundin Mining. First
Quantum's leverage is hampered by its hedge position (although we agree with
the company hedging copper given its balance sheet and still-high spend capex
in 2017 and 2018 for Cobre Panama). Among the smaller producers, Copper
Mountain and Taseko have the best leverage due to their higher cost structures.
We are in the process of reviewing our metal price assumptions and will
revisit our targets/ratings at the time of our price deck update.
Sentiment chart in words.
ReplyDelete"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria" -- Sir John Templeton
OT: I think this is a good article, especially first half, it kind of fades off starting with the words Hillary.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-18/memo-millennials-awful-feeling-youve-got-called-losing?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
Decided to buy back at $3.88 the shares of BTE I sold a couple of days ago at $4.08...
ReplyDeleteNMM appears to be holding its gains. Just bought back at $2.03 the shares out of which I was stopped out at $1.90.
ReplyDeleteThe analysts are not thinking that NMM is overpriced:
Deletehttps://www.thecerbatgem.com/2016/11/18/zacks-investment-research-upgrades-navios-maritime-partners-l-p-nmm-to-hold.html
And, just for a day trade, bought DRYS at $12.16. Placed a stop on it just below today's lows at $11.40.
ReplyDeleteMoved up my stop to $11.70, just below the recent intraday low...
DeleteAlexander Elder was right when he said that day trading is "the most exciting activity you can do with your clothes on." :)
DeleteGame over.
DeleteDo these headlines occur at tops or bottoms?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-23/its-now-cheaper-buy-dry-bulk-freight-tanker-starbucks-coffee
I've been reading about John Angelicoussis, a private owner of the 6th largest fleet of ships in the world. Apparently he is known for being a shark and has been aggressively buying ships in the dry bulk sector this year. I think there's a good chance we see a pretty substantial turnaround in this sector this year. I've been spending the past week or so researching companies in this space. Right now I just have NMM but I'm looking to add others. NMM announced a secondary after the close on Friday so they will probably take a hit tomorrow but we shall see. They're projecting $80+ Million in free cash flow next year and have half of their fleet open to market / spot rates so if the rates run significantly then they will be huge winners. They also paid down over $100 Million of their debt over the past year and don't have debt due till 2018. Could be a nice winner.
DeleteSurprised to see you reading zerohedge - haha. They, as usual, being overly dramatic about things.
DeleteStocks sure are cheap if we get an uptick in demand and rates.
Ha yeah I know. I actually came across the article on Bloomberg or maybe it was another similar one...
DeleteNM has earnings tomorrow. Probably will be shitty. NMM is the only pure play dry bulker I can find that is profitable.
Cowen postive on FCX - http://seekingalpha.com/news/3226068-freeport-go-copper-play-cowen-says-upping-target-20
ReplyDeleteI'm still sticking with my $19 Q1 2017 call.
DeletePicked up EDC today. I think we could see a breather in the dollar and that would be good for EM's. I think you will see EDC at $70 within a month.
ReplyDeleteI hope everyone here is kicking ass today. Also glad to see David dumped DRYS just in time.
ReplyDeleteI got lucky on that one on Friday. I bought a tiny position at $17 on Thursday and watched it drop to $11 then it popped on Friday and I close at a small gain. It's nothing more than a trading ticker.
DeleteYep. I only planned to play DRYS as a day trade.
DeleteEnded up selling half FCX today to free up some money in case they try to close the gap up today.
ReplyDeleteThe Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 all rallied together to reach all-time highs as crude oil prices surged on optimism that OPEC will agree to a supply cut deal.
ReplyDeleteToday was the first time since December 1999 that all four major U.S. equity benchmarks closed at records on the same day.
> This has to be bullish. The odds of it happening for the first time in 17 years and it being a peak are very, very small.
Got another email from a supplier saying raw material prices are going up
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit order at $4.38 for the BTE shares I reloaded last week at $3.88.
ReplyDeleteSold FCX and EDC this morning. Looking for a small pullback to reload as things seem to have gotten ahead of themselves with the hard asset stocks. Multiple gaps up concerns me especially when the overall market isn't cheap.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I'm going to have to hold on to NMM a while now. Had I been on top of it last week I would have probably sold some but I don't mind holding as they're clearly turning the ship around, pun intended. They paid down $100M in debt the past year and should have room to pay down another $80M over the next year. That will give them room to extend maturities on their debt due in 2018 and bring back the divvy.
If BDI were to grow along the trend that started in Feb, it should first pull back to 1000. Maybe that's what the traders are waiting for...
DeleteI think longer term you're looking at much higher prices so I'm ok with waiting.
DeleteI agree -- BHP is going up in a straight line since February, which suggests that shipping prices should go up steadily as well. Just bought some more NMM at $1.78.
DeleteLong MMYT right by the 50DMA.
ReplyDeleteBought back into EDC at same price I sold but with a larger position. Good for the broker.
ReplyDeleteGoldman has FCX with the highest short position (10%) for stocks mattering to hedge funds:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/news/3226525-goldmans-list-shorts-mattering-hedge-funds
new post
ReplyDelete