Friday, March 31, 2017

3/31/17 Patience/ The last few percentage points



Since closing my Emerging Markets + Total World Stock Market
positions on March 15, how have the positions fared?  EEM rallied
another +1.6% (on a closing basis) within a week, but has since pulled back.
 VT hasn't made any headway, and is trading about -0.5% lower
this morning.

Reaching for the last few percentage points can be
expensive, as swift declines become more likely.  The total gains in EEMVT from 1/21/16 to 3/15/17 were +40%+25% respectively.
Gains in EWZ (Brazil)/ RSX (Russia)?  +220%+160%!

It's prudent to leave the party early!  There will be
lower-risk entries down the road.

59 comments:

  1. And in your taxable accounts your rate is only 15%.

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  2. That's an awesome return, 2nd_ave! Holding a position for more than a year through a 220% gain is much harder than trading it in and out, and you have mastered that as well!

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  3. Mike, do you agree with the 2018 earnings forecast for EMES at

    http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/emes/earnings-forecast

    If its EPS indeed goes from negative in 2017 to $1.87 in 2018, then P/E multiple do you think will be assigned to it in 2018? How high can the stock go in this case? Does the company have any debt problems, in your opinion?

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    1. They restructured their company and shouldn't have any liquidity issues from what I've read. I wouldn't be surprised to see that big of a rebound in earnings but I'm just playing a bounce to hopefully the recent highs...even half of that is a 50% move.

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  4. Looks like CBMX is topping out. Placed a buy limit order at $5.05 so as to reload the "trading shares" I sold at $5.50.

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  5. Wow 220% in an ETF!? That's insane.

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  6. The 1-year chart for gdxj gives me a feeling that a spike up will come soon. Just bought some at $36.67.

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    1. I think the spike in GDXJ will easily take it above $40. So I just placed a sell limit at $40 for the shares I purchased today.

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  7. Going Short.

    The DJIA has retraced a +180-point open, and heading into negative territory as we approach the close. Buy the dip? I don't think so. I'm betting the weakness begets more, and it's time to short. I'll be doing so via RYWYX (Rydex -2x Inverse Emerging Markets) + EEV (ProShares UltraShort Emerging Markets).

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  8. CBMX hit my buy limit at 5.05, reloading the shares I sold at 5.50. So far my trading portion of CBMX is doing much better than my buy-and-hold portion...

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  9. There appears to be strong support this morning, with sufficient buying to keep a 'floor' under the market. Will there be yet another 'V' rally? I don't know. Closing RYWYX at the 1030 est window, as prices are not gapping down as I expected. Taking a minor gain over the risk of being caught on the wrong side of the V.

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  10. Reopening a position in EWZ (Brazil), currently at the day's lows and almost -5% off Wednesday's high!

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  11. The bears are unable to put together even a 2-yard run, let alone a first down. Friday is 'jobs.' Ahead of the news, I have to bet on the winning team. Adding a position in RYVWX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the close. This is no time for large bets. Sizing small, and playing very short time frames.

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  12. EWZ (Brazil) closed @ 37.6x for a one-day gain of +2.5%.

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  13. BDI has one positive day and GNK jumps to a new high, without me on board...

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  14. RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) closed the day up +0.45% (despite the -0.18% decline in EEM - probably due to differences in the underlying securities used to track emerging markets). I closed the position end of day.

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  15. VIX has been creeping up since late January, putting in higher lows and higher highs. In the past, such a behavior resulted in a sharp spike up in VIX...

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  16. Interesting to see if SPWR's move today sticks. I think so.

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  17. Buying the lower bands for a trade.

    EEM (emerging markets), RSX (Russia), and FXI (China 'H' Shares) all hitting their lower Bollinger Bands today. Will swing here and add RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the close for short-term trades.

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  18. Placed a buy limit order to buy more CBMX at $4.55.

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  19. Not much of a bounce off those bands! EEM (emerging markets) currently +0.28%, FXI (China 'H' Shares) +0.1%, and both RSX (Russia) -1% and EWZ (Brazil) -0.27% in the red (although given a lower opening basis my position in Brazil is still in the green).

    I think it's too early to write off the bulls. I'm adding to each of my positions, and will add to RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) + open a new position in RYTNX (Rydex 2x SPX) at the close.

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  20. Early market action has emerging markets outperforming US indexes. DJIA + SPX are up about +0.1%, whereas emerging markets are trading between 0.3% to 0.6% higher. Tepid bounces any way we look at it. Will close RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) + RYTNX (Rydex 2x SPX) at the 1030 est trading window. I still think we see a significant pullback within the next few months and I'm content with relatively small gains until then.

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    1. I think you're right with the pullback thinking. The market is finally realizing Trump is insane I think. This is a good post by a guy I admire...politically charged? Maybe. But I think most people feel the same way about him:

      https://www.virgin.com/richard-branson/meeting-donald-trump

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    2. Thanks, the above is valuable information. Much of Trump's agenda appears to be personal. That said, I believe it heightens the odds that his administration succeeds in fulfilling many of his 'promises.'
      Whether or not we agree with Trump's objectives, insights into his psyche provide an edge for traders.

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  21. CBMX hit my buy limit at $4.55 today. It had a large pullback from its highs. Mike -- are there any negative/alarming news about the company, or is it just regular stock fluctuations?

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    1. I think its getting sucked down by (1) impatient sellers, probably momo guys (2) market weakness. People need to be hand held sometimes. This thing is now trading at a $9M valuation ex-cash. That's silliness. CFO has hinted at them no needing cash anymore which means breakeven is coming soon. That's a game changer for this stock that has been in the doghouse for years.

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    2. Thanks, Mike! I will hold my core position for as long as you keep yours. :) In the mean time, just to keep some trading going around the core position, I placed a sell limit at $5.05 for the shares I picked up at $4.55 today.

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  22. Gold has broken out above its March highs, but GDXJ is lagging behind. If the uptrend in gold continues, GDXJ should not go down. I already have positions in GDXJ and GDX, and so now I decided to just get some cash from it and sold 3 May 19 GDXJ puts with a $37 strike at $2.14 each. That's 75℅ return annualized on the money I set aside to buy the stock -- not bad :)

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  23. In the spirit of arbitrage :), I just sold 5 May 26 GDX covered calls at $1.11 and removed the sell limit at $40 for the shares of GDXJ I purchased last week at $36.63. This way, if this sector goes up, I will lose my GDX shares, but my GDXJ will do very well. Better yet, if GDXJ starts outperforming GDX, then the GDX calls I sold will expire, but GDXJ position will go up.

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  24. RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) closed the 1030 est window up +0.5%. The fund closed end of day down -1.7%. That's a differential of 2.2%! In general, I avoid leveraged funds due to the unpredictable pricing that often occurs. However, the additional trading window offers an unbeatable escape hatch when I need one! There's nothing worse than watching a (short term trading) position move against you for an entire day with no recourse.

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  25. It seems like the pullback in EMES that started in late February is over, and the stock is setting up for another move up. It made a flag over the past week, and I have a feeling that it will breakout to the upside rather than downside. So I just purchased a little more EMES at $14.14 -- will make this my trading position and will hold my original purchase at $14 for a longer term.

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    1. Placed a sell limit at $15.15 for my trading position in EMES.

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    2. My guess about the next move in EMES was wrong...

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    3. 13.25 was the floor for EMES since late March, so I just bought more of it at $13.25 and placed a sell limit at $14.25.

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  26. Shorted the morning snap via RYW[Y]X (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets) @ the 1030 est trading window. I'm unable to close the position until Wednesday, but there is another way to lock in the gain-> by opening an equal position in RYW[V]X (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the close!

    The selling may continue on Wednesday, but we could just as easily see dip-buying. Locking in a gain is less complicated.

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  27. Reopened positions in EWZ (Brazil) and PBR (Petrobras) + RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) on intraday weakness yesterday. Will 'press' the long side by upping my position in RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) + add a position in RYTNX (Rydex 2x SPX) @ the 1030 est window.

    Sorry for the late entries. Just bookkeeping.

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    1. Good-looking day! EEM (Emerging Markets) showing a gain of +1.25% heading into the close. I was planning to close only that portion of RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) opened yesterday at end of day, but the brokerage rep had trouble separating the lots and we opted to close out the entire position. Not a problem, as I'm able to reopen a third position at the close-> given the lack of a trend either way over the past week, I'll take the +2.5% one-day gain and reassess Friday.

      Closing X (US Steel) for a +6% gain. After pulling back and treading water in the 28 zone for three days, the stock spiked +9% today. I plan to reopen a position on weakness in the days ahead.

      RYTNX (Rydex 2x SPX) was opened at the 1030 est window up +0.6% from Wednesday's close (with the S&P500 up +0.3% at the time). The SPX has since spiked to a +0.9% gain, which should place the position up +1.2% at day's end. With the DJIA/ SPX currently up +203/ +21, I'm hesitant to hold the position overnight and will therefore open an equivalent position in RYTPX (Rydex -2x SPX) at the close to lock in the gain.

      EWZ (Brazil) and PBR (Petrobras) trading flat, which is unusual given the spike in EEM. Holding overnight.

      Finally, the two-day decline in TLT (the long bond) prompts me to open a trading position in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond).

      It all sounds pretty busy, but it's not. When I'm in sync with the market's rhythm, it pays to dance...until I'm pushed off the floor!

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    2. Welcome back to the fun of trading, after 1.5 years of boredom. :)

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  28. Taking a shot on Jessie's XES idea @ 18.12.

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    1. Thank you for the idea, Mark! XES seems to have returned to the accumulation zone, and buying it here for the long term seems pretty safe.

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  29. Last Friday's power outage in San Francisco precluded any setups heading into Monday. Not sure what I might have come up with, and it's pointless to guess. I ended the week flat, closing all positions by Friday's close.

    In any event, today's gap up in global markets sets up new opportunities. I usually take a 'top down' approach to making decisions.

    (a) My expectation is that global markets will end the year higher.
    (b) However, I also expect an 'overdue' [I use quotes when using adjectives to describe market behavior, because market behavior is defiant!] correction, and I'm uncomfortable with a 'buy and hold' approach through the summer.
    (c) Given recent gains that outperformed the market (and knowing out-performance rarely persists), I want to protect capital.

    With the above in mind, what looks good this morning? The gap up represents emotional trading, and strong emotions lead to opportunities. Under-invested traders are chasing, and shorts are covering. Both actions are driven by panic, and represent low-risk fades. I generally wait for the final hour of trading when market snapshots are more reliable. If indexes close at the highs, buying bonds and/or shorting the indexes might be profitable short-term trades. If indexes close at the lows but it's 'clear' that the fear of being left out trumps the fear of having been sucked in, then going long makes sense. These are all preliminary thoughts, and of course the trading day has a way of rendering them meaningless.

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  30. CBMX hit my sell limit today at $5.05 for the shares I added at $4.55. Nice to have such a volatile stock with a positive bias. :)

    Recycled that money just now into HLX at $6.27 and placed a sell limit for that at $7.27. HLX had a negative bias for the past few months, but so did XES, so I am hoping it is not a company problem. It reported earnings today and I did not see anything terribly bad about them. The oil services vessel they sent to Brazil had finally passed all inspections there and began operating. Don't know why the stock is down so much today. The folks at nasdaq.com are still showing a small negative EPS prediction for 2017, but a positive one for 2018. So the future looks good, and we just need to get "over the valley."

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    1. Damn. After flatting out in mid-day, HLX collapsed into the close...

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  31. Mike, are you adding here to EMES?

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    1. Emerge Energy Services LP (EMES) was Reiterated by Goldman to “Buy” according to the research note released today. The brokerage firm has raised the Price Target to $ 31 from a previous price target of $28.50 . Goldman advised their Clients and Investors in a research report released on Apr 20, 2017.

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    2. I just bought some at $12.28 and placed a sell limit at $13.30.

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    3. Hey David - I got stopped out at even. I've been a little too busy to do much lately to be honest.

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  32. Opening a small position in VXX (volatility futures) @ 15.42. Plan to open RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) at the close, +/- RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets). There's a pronounced lack of 'emotion' in the markets (too many computerized algorithms perhaps), which subtracts from the trust I have in sentiment reads.

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  33. Sand Man

    "As a result, the real acceleration in demand for frac sand will likely occur in the current quarter and will reach a crescendo during the second half of this year."

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4064851-u-s-silica-upcycle-gaining-momentum

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  34. (a) I ended up taking a -1.62% hit on RYGBX (no worries, playing small). I am now as 'out of sync' as I was 'in sync' just days ago.

    (b) The +500-point rally in the DJIA the past two days? Under normal circumstances, I would view it as highly bullish. For some reason, I have little interest in looking for an entry right now (and my lack of interest may turn out to be a contrarian signal!). As a rough estimate, it would take a -5% to -10% pullback to get me interested. (That's unusual for me.)

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  35. EMES hit my sell limit at 13.30 for the shares I purchased two days ago at 12.28. My next sell limit is at $14.25.

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  36. Looking at the 6-month chart of CBMX, it looks like yet another higher low has been made recently. I just placed a buy limit order at $4.75, in case it decides to make another small drop before powering higher.

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    1. The order was filled at the close. Placed a sell limit at 5.25 for these shares.

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  37. Two weeks ago I sold $25 strike covered calls on GDX at $1.11. I just bought them back at $0.11. I have a feeling that I'll be able to sell them again soon, when GDX rises back to $25. :)

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  38. Reloaded at $12.82 the shares of EMES I sold yesterday at $13.30. Placed a sell limit at $13.80 for them.

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    1. You've been on quite a roll David!

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    2. Mark, my "automatic trading system" sells share lots only when they rise sufficiently above the purchase price. It does not show any activity in unsuccessful investments that keep going down. I have a couple of those too: BTE and HLX. So my gains for this year are much smaller than what one might infer from my posted trades...

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  39. T3D: you have posted about accelerating demand for Frac Sand. The article below suggests that supply is accelerating even faster and prices are expected to start falling in the summer/fall:

    https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/17/04/9368298/third-point-is-shorting-frac-sand-miners

    Do you agree with this assessment? Mike -- is that why you exited EMES instead of adding in $12.XX range, as you had initially planned?

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