I'm tempted to 'replay' my July 11 trade (opened July 11,
closed July 27). The 'set up' for July 11 is copied below:
On Tue, Jul 11, 2017 at 12:00 PM, R Chen <rxchen2@gmail.com> wrote:
This bull market has probably perplexed more traders than
any other. (Of course, if you're in buy-and-hold mode there's no
perplexity at all!). Looking for reasonable (re)entry points with indexes
near all-time highs is an exercise in frustration.
I'm inclined to overweight energy (due to recent
under-performance), financials (due to recent strength +/- Friday's earnings
releases by banks), and/or emerging markets (a sector poised to continue
climbing from multi-year lows). The problem? Short-term gyrations
are likely to throw me off (as reflected in my last two trades). So I'm
better off not trying to predict which sectors will outperform at this point.
Having captured good gains in emerging markets from the
2016 lows, it now makes more sense to retreat to a safer investing
profile. In other words, if I'm going to give back any gains, I want
to 'mute' the losses via maximum diversification!
When I'm unable to decide on sectors, yet still
bullish? There's only one fallback position, which is the total stock
market. It's the closest I can come to preserving capital while
remaining fully invested! Opening positions in VT (Vanguard
Total Stock Market etf) + VTWSX (Vanguard Total Stock Market
mutual fund).
At this point, I have a +2.67% 'buffer' in gains from the
July trade, which makes it easier to accept the risk of a replay. I plan
to tweak the August trade using two small changes.
(a) VTWSX (Vanguard Total World Market) at
the close.
(b) ASHR (China 'A' Shares) @ . The
recent gap to a 52-high puts it within striking range of levels last seen in
2015. There's a good chance it breaches multi-year resistance.
(c) XLE (energy) is now -3% below it's July
11 level. I'm now willing to place a few chips on a rebound. 
Looking at the 6-month chart for EMES, one might conclude that it is bottoming out. Placed a buy stop limit on it just above the weekly highs, at $6.45/$6.50, so as to replace the trading shares I sold at $7.
ReplyDeleteDecided to jump the gun and buy some EMES right now at 6.28 and XES at 13.36, with mental stops at the recent lows. On the other hand, lowered my sell limit for CBMX to 7.60 for the shares purchased at 7.00, and just sold them. I think XES/EMES have more upside now than CBMX.
ReplyDeleteXES and EMES are holding up well today despite a large drop in the oil price. All bad news might already be baked into their very low prices. Their 6-month charts look like they are bottoming out. Get your shares today for the next up phase! :)
ReplyDeleteXES/EMES are taking off, while no one is watching...
ReplyDeleteJust lowered my sell limit for NMM from $2.10 to $2.09 and sold my remaining shares. This ends my second rendezvous with NMM, where each time I was buying it heavily from $2.00 down to $1.50 and selling it on the way up. Will be waiting for the next time when NMM drops below $2.00 to start loading up on it again! :)
ReplyDeleteIf not for my big unrealized losses on my oil services stocks, this would have been a great year already. But everything has its own season under the sun, and maybe the time has come for XES to start moving up? It has amazed investors by recently dropping below January 2016 lows, so all weak hands should have been shaken off... Isn't it a classical pattern, after all? A brief drop below the previous lows to run all the stops and then a quick recovery?
ReplyDeleteThe rally in XES is paused temporarily by a (hopefully temporary) drop in the oil prices today. However, XES is down less than USO today, which is definitely a change in sentiment. EMES is actually up more than 3% at this point!
ReplyDeleteLooks like the wedge in GDX since Feb 2017 has resolved itself by an upside breakout. Somehow, I don't have any desire to start selling my large positions in GDX/GDXJ. I have a feeling that they will be massive winners over the next few years.
ReplyDeleteXES is up 1.2% despite USO being down 1.3% -- that's how rallies start. Big Boyz are accumulating on the days when no one wants buy.
ReplyDeleteAlso, take a look at the 6-month chart of AKS. Looks like the bottom is in, and it has already started climbing out of it... SLX is at multi-month highs, so if AKS decides to catch up, it will be a major rally.
ReplyDeleteBought more XES at 13.38
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit order at 14 for these shares.
DeleteAs I had predicted, AKS did spike up and hit my sell limit at 5.85. Placed a buy limit at 5.50 to replace these shares.
ReplyDeleteLooks like XES's season under the sun is in full swing. :) Check out its nice straight line ascent since August 21. I hope some of you have loaded up on it as well...
ReplyDeleteEMES is next to explode, btw...
DeleteHeading into the close:
ReplyDelete(a) VT (total world market) is changing hands @ 69.89 (+0.4%), just 2 cents away from the August 8 intraday high of 69.91.
(b) The DJIA and SPX are trading +0.3%, with both indexes less than a percentage point away from new all-time highs.
(c) ASHR (China 'A' Shares) +1.1% to 29.73, a new 52-wk high (+4.2% since opening on August 22). EEM (emerging markets) +0.71% to 45.15, a new 52-wk high.
(d) XLE (energy) +1.15%.
I realize it's probably the slowest trading week of the year, which explains the low volumes. Nevertheless, I'm bothered by the prospect of a bull trap (where buyers are lulled into buying near all-time highs, only to be trapped by a gap-down the following trading day).
Thus I'm taking off positions off at the close. All in all, a +1.6% return since August 22 (eight trading days). That's good enough for me!
XES hit my sell limit at $14 for the shares I purchased at $13.38. Placed a sell limit at $7.28 for the shares of EMES I purchased at $6.28 on that same day (8/23).
ReplyDeleteIt turned out I forgot to place that order for EMES yesterday! It would have been triggered this morning! Crap!
DeleteWell, if the fate didn't want me to sell EMES today, the only reason I can see for this is that my sell limit was too low. :) So I just raised it to $8.
DeleteWhy don't you raise it to an even 10 and walk away for awhile?
DeleteI am not sure I'll have the strength to wait until $8, given all the articles I read recently about fracking sand companies putting new mines online that will overflow the market with sand in a couple of years. That may be true, since sand is not that difficult to dig up.
DeleteMike, Mark -- do you have a take on it?
Near the intraday highs as we approach the close. I like the pitch:
ReplyDelete(a) Lots of articles urging caution.
(b) Put/Call ratios remain elevated.
(c) North Korea and Irma continue to dominate headlines.
The final arbiter is price. And prices have bounced back. I think we're ready for another attempt at new highs.
Reopened VTWSX (total world market) at the close. Added a smaller position in VEIEX (emerging markets). An even smaller position in X (US Steel).
The close is what counts.
ReplyDeleteWith thirty minutes to go:
(a) DJIA -60 points. SPX -3 points.
(b) However, EEM (emerging markets) +0.59%. VGK (Europe) +0.82%-> VT (total world market) +0.27%.
(c) X (US Steel) +1.09%.
(d) Opened a position in BABA (Alibaba) around 168.xx near the open. Currently changing hands around 170.
(e) Reopened a position in ASHR (China 'A' Shares) near the open @ 29.97.
new post
ReplyDelete