Remember the closing debates between James Kilpatrick and
Shana Alexander on 60 Minutes that aired in the Seventies?
Point:
1. Valuations are high.
2. We're way overdue for a correction.
3. The current decade is unlikely to be the first without a
recession.
Counterpoint:
1. Valuations may be high, but there are many approaches to
valuation. What matters (to me, anyway) is that there is demand for
stocks at current levels.
2. I've seen countless examples of unexpectedly long
stretches of odds-defying streaks at the craps table.
3. The global economy has rebounded slowly following the
2009 bear. Hey-> rather than a recession, is it possible that we're
about to see the rebound transition into a strong recovery?
Moving a few chips around.
ReplyDelete(a) BABA (Alibaba) off @ 177.xx for a +5% gain-> Looking for a reentry into the energy sector.
(b) VTWSX (total world market) + VEIEX (emerging markets)-> Plan to rotate funds into VTXMX (total US stock market) end of day. The world market ex-US has had a good run year to date. With tax reform talks underway, US stocks may be poised to outperform.
Typo. Total US stock market should read VTSMX.
DeleteIt looks like at least for now, traders are operating on the assumption that XES made a double bottom between Feb 2016 and August 2017. The whole sector is moving up nicely, and 3 orders were executed for me today:
ReplyDeleteXES hit my sell limit at $15.38 for the shares I purchased at $13.38.
EMES hit my sell limit at $8 for the shares that I purchased at $6.28, then wanted to sell at $7.28, but forgot. :)
HLX hit my sell limit at $7.26 for the shares I purchased at $6.26.
These orders both reduced my losses on the other share lots that I am still keeping and that I purchased at higher prices (in HLX and EMES), but more importantly, they raised cash for me to deploy if some good opportunities arise.
For example, I think the recent pullback in GDX might present a buying opportunity soon -- either if GDX starts moving up again, or if it drops lower. Placed a buy stop limit on GDX at $24.75/$24.85, just above yesterday's highs, so as not to miss out on this opportunity if GDX starts going up again.
DeleteNicely done (or not done, as the case may be!).
DeleteMy buy limit for AKS has been triggered this morning at $5.5 to replace the shares sold at $5.85. Placed a sell limit at $5.9 for these shares.
ReplyDeleteChips off.
ReplyDelete(a) Closed X (US Steel) at a loss.
(b) Closed ASHR (China 'A' Shares) at a loss.
(c) Plan to close VTSMX (Vanguard Total US Stock Market) at the close.
Still bullish, but I think global markets will have a tough time continuing higher without at least a minor pullback.
Placed a buy limit order for CBMX at $7.20, in case it ticks down on Monday. Maybe I'll be able to squeeze another trade in there. :)
ReplyDeleteSPWR might have found a bottom last week. Just reloaded at 8.44 the shares I at 8.80 when I stopped myself out of my first position.
ReplyDeleteACIA, someone here mentioned this, been watching for awhile starting to look interesting.
ReplyDeleteLong at 47.45
Mkt just chugs higher.
Just bought some ORCL shares at $48.03. I think the recent pullback has removed some hype from the stock and the corresponding downside risks.
ReplyDeleteLarry Ellison and the two CEOs recently said that they agree to forgo their $100M stock-based compensation over the next 5 years if they don't move ORCL to $80 over the next 5 years.
DeleteThat's $100M *each*, which makes up 14% of its $2.2B net income from Q1. 1 year ago, their reported $1.8B net income, so these $300M in savings for Oracle make up almost 1 year of progress at the company, with no extra work needed to be done by engineers and scientists like me! :)
DeleteDoes the ORCL trade reflect a new position, or simply add to an existing position accumulated over the years working for SUNW/ ORCL?
DeleteI've been selling promptly all shares that have been vesting (every July), so this is a new position in my trading account.
DeleteThere is so much anxiety re the Fed decision tomorrow (Yellen is expected to announce a well-telegraphed [yet still anxiety-provoking] decision to begin reducing its balance sheet) that I'm prompted to fade the anxiety. Reopening VTSMX (total US market) at the close. The bet is US indexes will rally to new highs on the announcement, and further that US indexes will outperform the total world market on the news.
ReplyDeleteSPWR -- crap! Just when I decided to step in... Out at $7.93.
ReplyDeleteJust sold some November $23 puts on GDX at $0.77. Might as well earn 20% annualized on the cash I have in my trading account. :)
ReplyDeleteThe usual whipsaw ensued following today's Fed confirmation re 'the great unwind.' It also signaled another rate hike in December. The DJIA, which had been trading unchanged, promptly dropped -56 points. The index has since recovered to -4 points.
ReplyDeleteVTI (total US market) currently off just one cent (-0.01%). More interesting are the cross-currents elsewhere:
(a) $USD up +1% on the news. So I missed an opportunity there. However, that is more than offset by (b)->
(b) GDX (miners) off -2%. I had planned to invest an equivalent amount in miners. So overall, I side-stepped a -1% hit on the combined trade.
(c) TLT (the long bond) -0.2%. Not surprising given confirmation of a rate hike.
(d) EEM (emerging markets) -0.64%. VT (total world market) -0.2%. Thus far it appears the US indexes are outperforming.
I took advantage of the selloff to reopen two trades:
(a) X (US Steel), which had gapped up +2% earlier in the day to 26.4x, promptly gave it all back and then some. I opened a position @ 25.5x.
(b) BABA (Alibaba). I picked up a few shares @ 176 and change, currently 177 and change.
I'm closing all positions end of day. Not because I'm bearish, but because after nine consecutive higher closes for the DJIA (eight of which printed new all-time closing highs), it's simply prudent. The 'bet' on Tuesday was that momentum (particularly in the face of anxiety re Wednesday's Fed announcement) would carry US indexes significantly higher. Instead, the post-Fed 'reversal' seems tepid. Ideally, I'd like to see a solid reset of sentiment (from a current 76 on the meter to under 30: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/) before going all-in on a longer time frame.
ReplyDeleteMy portfolio balance will probably return to Tuesday's level, and keeping balances near YTD highs is one key to outperforming.
Mark, what do you think is going on with SPWR? This doesn't feel like a simple pullback during an uptrend. When you stepped in a few weeks ago, you said that valuation at 9.20 was too compelling. Do you see any threat now to the company's business?
ReplyDeleteGlobal markets did their best to sell off further this morning, only to close essentially flat. That's bullish, and essentially negates any bearish opinion I may have had through yesterday.
ReplyDeleteReopened positions in BABA (Alibaba) and RSX (Russia). Also reopened positions in both VEIEX (Vanguard Emerging Markets) and VTWSX (Vanguard Total World Stock Market) at the close.
It appears that a very late-session selloff (the final 15 minutes) led to a red close for the DJIA (-12 points). No worries. It provided a more attractive opening basis for both VEIEX (-0.33%) and VTWSX (-0.66%). The -0.33% close in VEIEX conforms to a -0.25% close for EEM. On the other hand, the -0.66% decline in VTWSX is 6-7x greater than that in VT (the ETF equivalent)-> given that we're in the last week of September, that probably means the mutual fund trades ex-dividend today.
I think global markets will gap up on Wednesday.
EMES takes another big hit today -- is it a shake off on the way up, or is it a reversal of the recent uptrend? Will probably need more time to see if it forms a higher low...
ReplyDeleteGDX might have made a bottom at $23. Placed a buy stop limit just above yesterday's highs, at $23.25/$23.30.
ReplyDeleteIf triggered, will place a sell stop at $23. Small possible loss, large possible gain. :)
DeleteLooks like EMES is finding its support at the $8 level where it traded in mid-September. Just bought some at $8.20 to replace the shares that were sold when my $9 sell limit was hit last week.
ReplyDeleteSPWR also seems to be finding support this week, so I just jumped back at $7.29.
ReplyDeleteWhen I open (trading) positions, I generally have soft targets in mind (basically, I'll know the targets when I see 'em!).
ReplyDeleteThe DJIA is trading slightly red, but both the SPX (+0.27%) and the NDQ (+0.56%) are solidly green. Even better, the global market (ex-US) did in fact gap and run.
(a) Will close VEIEX (Vanguard Emerging Markets) at the close. Best proxy is EEM, currently +1.37%.
(b) Will close VTWSX (Vanguard Total World Market) at the close. Proxy=VT, currently +0.57%.
(c) X (US Steel) closed @ 25.6x for a 2-day gain of +5%.
(d) EWZ (Brazil) closed @ 41.5x for a 2-day gain of +1.1%.
(e) RIG (Transocean) closed @ 10.80 for a 2-day gain of +4.8%.
(f) BABA (Alibaba) closed @ 173.3x for a 3-day gain of +3.1%.
(g) RSX (Russia) closed for a 3-day gain of +1%.
(h) My one regret is HIMX (Himax), which I closed yesterday for a +7% gain. It's up another +5% today!
Overall gain for the portfolio will be around +1.4%, which falls within the range for trades of this type in 2017.
The SPX printed a new all-time high of 2518 this afternoon (duly noted by President Trump!). I think 2700 is within reach over the next few months, but in my opinion it will be difficult to break above current levels without a decent pullback. Of course, that's been my opinion for several weeks now!
Yes, I never got around to posting entries for trades c, d, e and h. Partly because Google is unconvinced that I'm the proper owner of the 2nd_ave address, and partly just inertia.
Deletenew post
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