No certainties in the market, for sure. But it helps to have a rough idea re what lies ahead (based on historical precedent and/or recent precedent). My best composite take (after reading through the stuff I follow):
(a) Likely to rally hard next week. I don't believe tax reform has been priced in. Now that the Senate has voted to pass a tax overhaul bill, both chambers will vote next week on a motion to 'go to conference' on working out the details. It's estimated that passage will add +10% to corporate profits next year (or the year after, depending on when the bill takes effect). Michael Flynn? I have no idea re market reaction to Flynn's plea deal, but hey-> traders who have bet against Trump on any number of issues have been wrong for over a year.
(b) Pullback mid-December. December tends to start out strong, stall mid-month, then rally hard into year end. Paul Ryan is saying he'll keep Congress in session beyond its December 15 adjournment if necessary to pass tax reform this year. We can count on the usual last-minute political drama taking the vote down to at least December 15. Perhaps as good a catalyst as any for the pullback.
(c) +7% into January 2018. 7% is probably conservative. A strong outlook for 2018 will become even stronger as investors begin to seriously weigh the effects of tax reform on global growth.
(d) Sharp rebound in emerging markets. You may recall the cover story in Barron's last Sunday, which can be summarized as 'Barron's likes EEM!' Thus no surprise that EEM declined -4% last week. As you know, I believe it was a buying opp.