I've always said that when we near retirement age, it's time to leave the playing field and think about coaching instead. I plan to slow down my involvement in the capital markets.
Currently about +13.5% ytd, closer to +17% off the December 24 lows, and at an all-time high. Those are decent gains for a three-month period, and given the fact that I closed 2018 off just -1.36% - well I don't feel the need to push for anything more at this point. I'll wait for a decent pullback.
That's very wise, 2nd_ave. You can make one year's worth of gains during a single month-long recovery after a sizeable pullback. Work just one month per year -- who wouldn't want that! :)
ReplyDeleteI would follow you, 2nd_ave, if it weren't for XOP, which is perpetually on the verge of an upside breakout. :)
ReplyDeleteActually, it just hit my sell limit at $31.27 for the bunch of shares I picked up at $30.27. I will be totally out of XOP by the time it reaches $36.
When the shippers move up from the bottom they have carved out, I will sell them and will be half in cash.
ReplyDeleteJust sold at $184.22 the shares of Nvidia I picked up earlier this week at $170. Will wait for full back to reenter, as NVDA looks pretty stretched on a one-month chart.
ReplyDeleteEEM and VWO (emerging markets ETFs) are both down > -1.8%. In my opinion, that's excessive. As I'm only able to buy leveraged mutual funds at this time of day, I will open RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the 730 pst trading window. I will place trades using 50% of funds available, which allows me to 'close' my positions end of day (if desired) by opening an equivalent position in RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets).
ReplyDeleteThe first pullback is generally a buy. I would place odds of a bounce (dead cat or otherwise) at 70%.
Also opening positions in EWZ (Brazil), HUYA, and CGC (Canopy).
Commentary below in two parts: my take @ 1215 pm and my take @ 1240 pm.
Delete(a) The SPX reversed off 2802 (one guy I follow targeted 2795 - so close enough) and is now trading @ 2815. [However, that was 15 minutes ago. It's now 2808.]
(b) The selling in emerging markets feels relentless, and is occurring on high volume - one potential sign of capitulation. [It's also a potential sign of institutional distribution.]
(c) I don't believe the bull is dead. [I still don't. But I do believe the world markets are extended here.']
No guarantees, but I plan to hold and +/- add to emerging markets via VEMAX (as opposed to RYVWX, which is not my preferred trading vehicle). [I'm going to honor my initial trading plan and close all positions end of day. RYWVX will be 'closed' by opening an equivalent position in RYWYX.]
The bottom line: by taking a loss here, I remain up double-digits for 2019. I'd like to keep it that way!
After today's sell-off, XOP is once again way behind USO and is worth a trade if oil recovers. Placed a buy stop limit on XOP just above today's afternoon bounce highs, at $30.50/$30.55.
ReplyDeleteAlso, placed a buy limit on NMM at $0.82.
ReplyDeletePosted late Friday:
ReplyDeleteIt's easy to feel bad on days like this if you're fully invested. A few perspectives that have helped me in the past:
(a) We invest in the stock market in order to achieve gains unrealizable in a savings account (or any other risk-free investment). The occasional drawdown is the price we pay. I don't have a problem with that.
(b) The market owes us nothing. We are not entitled to gains without losses, or any gains at all for that matter.
(c) Did you really think every trade would result in a gain? That accomplishment seems limited to market commentators who appear on TV.
(d) It's good to occasionally wipe out while surfing the markets. It keeps us from getting carried away when we're winning.
I took an overall hit of -1.5% today (a 'weighted' -0.9% hit on RYWVX, much more on EWZ and HUYA). Now +11.7% ytd, and +0.6% above benchmark. (What I mean by a weighted hit is this: I opened a 50% position in a 2-fold leveraged fund to achieve a 1-fold position. RYWVX was opened at the 730 am pst window at 69.63, and it closed at 68.37 [a -6.07% hit for positions opened yesterday!] - that's a -1.8% hit which when spread over a position size twice as large effectively becomes a loss of -0.9%.)
I credit a combination of strategies for containing losses today:
(a) Refusing to chase prices (Monday through Thursday), waiting instead for a decent pullback.
(b) Taking what I considered to be good odds of a winning trade this morning.
(c) Opening each position with an exit plan in mind - then exiting as planned when prices failed to confirm my opening take. It was particularly important to leave the door open for an end-of-day exit from RYWVX (via RYWYX), as I holding a leveraged fund over the weekend poses an unacceptably high level of risk.
The following posts are in reverse chronological order:
ReplyDeleteI have enough exposure to emerging markets. Adding a position in FSKAX (Fidelity Total Market Index) at the close - the expense ration of 0.015% makes it an inexpensive way to diversify into the total US stock market.
On Mon, Mar 25, 2019 at 7:28 AM wrote:
Removing the RYWYX hedge @ the 730 am trading window.
On Mon, Mar 25, 2019 at 4:24 AM wrote:
Scaling into a few positions premarket-> EWZ (Brazil) and IQ (iQIYI) both off another -2% to 3%. There are no perfect entries.
USO jumped today above yesterday's rebound high, so things are not that bad in the oil space. XOP is, once again, being much more pessimistic. Just reloaded at $29.90 the shares I sold last week at $31.27.
ReplyDeleteAlso, just bought more NMM at $0.84. It is paying almost 10% dividend at this price!
ReplyDeleteLowered my other buy limit to $0.80.
DeleteComments by the Fed last Wednesday were bullish - yet the markets sold off hard on Friday. I think Friday's selloff was sparked by panic over an inverted yield curve. Even if an inverted yield curve signals a recession, the signal normally leads an economic decline by several months, if not 1-2 years. In any case, it's unclear whether the inverted yield curve is now in the process of reverting.
ReplyDeleteI think it's risk on for now. Reopened positions in ASHR (China 'A' Shares) and CGC (Canopy) this morning.
Currently off -2.5% on the IQ (iQIYI) trade, but up +5.18% on EWZ (Brazil). Removing the inverse hedge on RYWYVX (Rydex 2x emerging markets) led to a +0.67% gain on Monday (or a weighted gain of +0.33%) - the sector is rallying further this morning. FSKAX (total US market) should benefit from the +1% gains in the DJIA and SPX this morning.
"I think Friday's selloff was sparked by panic over an inverted yield curve."
ReplyDeleteMost likely. And I think everyone will wait for a few months to see if the curve normalizes, and if it doesn't, then people will slowly start heading for the exits...
Forgot to mention yesterday that I placed a sell limit at $31 for the shares of XOP I picked up at $29.90. That sell limit was triggered this morning. The buy stop limit at $30.50 turned out to be a day order, so it expired yesterday.
ReplyDeleteIn reverse chronological order:
ReplyDeleteThe opportunity to unload RYVWX (Rydex 2x emerging markets) at the 0730 window for a +1.1% overnight gain was a gift - EEM has since pulled back to the lows of the day. I will be moving the proceeds into the non-leveraged fund VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets) end of day.
Taking the +6% two-day profit on EWZ (Brazil) - betting I can buy it back lower.
On Tue, Mar 26, 2019 at 10:38 AM wrote:
Not being a fan of leveraged funds, I finally closed RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the 0730 window. It closed up +1.1% relative to last night's closing price - together with yesterday's +0.67% gain between 0730 and 1600, that pretty much completely neutralizes the hit I took on the position. The funds may or may not be used to reopen VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets) end of day.
USO is in an uptrend so far. In an anticipation of the imminent upside breakout of XOP :), just bought some after hours at $30.70 and placed a sell limit at $31.70.
ReplyDeleteIn reverse chronological order:
ReplyDeleteEWZ (Brazil) now +4% (+6.4% relative to premarket levels this morning)->closing the balance of my positions here.
At the same time, I'm taking heavy hits on both IQ (iQIYI) and CGC (Canopy)-> closing both positions here as well.
A great deal of work the past week, for an estimated gain of +0.5%. In general, when I have to work this hard to minimize losses/ capture gains it's just not a good time to be in the market.
I plan to close all positions in VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets) and FSKAX (Fidelitly Total US Market) end of day.
On Thu, Mar 28, 2019 at 7:27 AM wrote:
Taking off this morning's aliquot of EWZ (Brazil) for a +3.5% gain - holding two earlier positions.
On Thu, Mar 28, 2019 at 5:21 AM wrote:
Added a final aliquot of EWZ (Brazil) around 38.3x on continued weakness. If the sector fails to find a bid here, I plan to stop out.
Decided to re-enter NVDA today at $177.10 and placed a sell stop limit at $170, just below the Monday's low.
ReplyDeleteThe Shanghai Composite soars +3.2% overnight as trade talks resume. Global markets, not so much.
ReplyDeleteThe muted reactions in ETFs such as EEM (emerging markets) +1% and FXI (China 'H' Shares) +0.79% may reflect investor apathy - or present buying opportunities.
My own take right now is that after a +20% rally from the December lows, the ideal set-up for a continuation of the rally is a sustained pullback (somewhere between -5% and -10%).
In any case, I'm in no mood to chase prices here. A +20% gain from the December lows and a +12% gain ytd are above-average performance figures even for a one-year period.
It wouldn't surprise me to see US indexes close at the lows (or even in the red) today.
USO broke out to new 2019 highs today, but XOP is lagging by a full percentage point and is still in its old range. At which point will the fear of missing out force the XOP traders to start throwing money into it???
ReplyDeleteSo as not to let "a profit turn into a loss," moved up my sell stop on NVDA to my entry price of $177.
ReplyDeleteXOP: this f*cker just can't get it up! USO is making new highs but XOP is finding every excuse to go down! OK, if it wants to stay in place, I'll play its game: just sold a bunch of May $31 puts on it at $1.50.
ReplyDeleteAnd just sold May $30 puts at $1.18
DeleteXOP has corrected its behavior today -- it was up while USO was down. The upside breakout should happen when no one is waiting for it -- like on a day when oil is down...
ReplyDeleteA little cursing goes a long way -- should have done it earlier! :) XOP is outperforming oil for a second day in a row, pushing the upper boundary of its 3-channel.
ReplyDeleteToday it hit my sell limits at $31.50 and $31.75 for the share lots I picked up $1 lower. Still have a ton more of it to unload at higher prices...
In reverse chronological order:
ReplyDeleteOn Fri, Apr 5, 2019 at 12:36 PM wrote:
A +0.3% gain at best. Not the rocket I expected. Still 25 minutes to close.
Sent from my iPhone
On Apr 4, 2019, at 9:33 AM, wrote:
Monday’s breakout above March highs->consolidation + continued disbelief and poorly positioned fund managers->all tailwinds for a run >SPX 2900.
FSKAX.
In the event, the portfolio gained +0.55% for the day (along with FSKAX, I had added intraday trades in EWZ and EEM). As I was out of the market through Thursday afternoon (while on vacation), that translates into a +0.55% gain for the week. VT gained +2.24% for the week.
DeleteNow +12.9% ytd and trailing my benchmark by -1.8%.