I reread Mark Hulbert's take on a new bull market this morning:
I agree with his opinions re bear markets in 2011 and 2015. In addition, I've always felt that US investors ignored the devastating bear in emerging markets that ran from January 2016 through mid-2017.
Are we now experiencing one of the quickest recoveries from a bear that began last December? I'm not fully convinced - but that's exactly why it's likely to be the case.
If it turns out to be a new bull, then US indexes are likely to see double-digit returns between now and December 31.
The dry bulk shippers (GNK, NMM) are definitely in need of a new bull market! I sold some GNK today at $8.48 that I picked up at $7.60 (decided not to wait until my sell limit at $8.60 got hit and took decent profits early). But this jump is not even noticable on its 1-year chart! NMM is still at it's 2016 lows. I have accumulated a ton of it already and have reduced my cost basis through trading to $1.00. Now waiting for the bull market to start ...
ReplyDeleteXOP is continuing its advance and hit my sell limit at $32 for the shares I picked up somewhere below $31 (I bought a ton of shares between $30 and $31 as XOP was staying in place).
ReplyDeleteReopened VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets) at Monday's close. Also reopened positions in IQ (iQIYI) and HUYA.
ReplyDeleteBDI is continuing its ascent and NMM is starting to lift as well. Looks like it will be above $1 soon...
ReplyDeleteBought more NMCI today at $2.20 and placed a sell limit at $2.40. NMCI should follow NMM soon...
ReplyDeleteIt took longer than I thought for NMM to get to $1 but it got there today. Sold a bunch of shares today that I purchased around $0.85. Still have sell limit orders at $1.1 and $1.2 for all those shares that I had accumulated under $1.
ReplyDeleteXOP is also catching up with USO. It has already hit my sell limit orders at $32 and $33. Hedge funds eventually notice undervalued sectors and throw money at them...
ReplyDeleteI also forgot to mention that I sold at $21.85 all my GDX, when it broke below the April 1st low. I currently have no positions in gold miners, which is a rare situation for me. :) I figured that instead of holding them out of a long-term conviction I would rather buy and sell them based on the chart trends. Currently the trend is down, and I will wait for a clear bottom to form before I buy them again.
ReplyDeleteOn February 1 I posted:
ReplyDelete"Interestingly, XOP is an even better value today, with USO breaking out to new post-December highs and XOP lagging. So I have just completed my move from GDXJ into XOP, selling my final batch and buying an equal number of XOP shares. GDXJ is very extended on a 3-month chart, unlike XOP. I think there is a good chance that their charts reverse in one month."
Back then XOP was at $30.70 and GDXJ at $32.84. Today XOP closed at $32.94 and GDXJ at $28.81. So the situation has more than reversed in a few months. Sometimes it helps to tune out the noise introduced by all the HFT algorithms and make trades with a medium-term horizon...
At some point in April my portfolio had 1/3 of it on margin. After the recent sales of GDX, XOP, NMM, GNK, NVDA it is 1/5 in cash. As the prices are rising, there is less and less value in them, and hence a smaller fraction of the capital should be at risk.
ReplyDeleteAs of right now I'm giving back the gains of the past two days. Normally that wouldn't concern me too much. However, I've made little progress since late March - ytd gains have remained in the 12% to 13% range. I'm moving to 100% cash to clear my head.
ReplyDeleteTaking advantage of today's decline in shippers despite a growing BDI to reload NMM at $0.94 and also reload GNK at $8.68.
ReplyDeleteEEM/ VWO/ iEMG (all emerging markets ETFs) have now pulled back to early April levels, basically retracing all of its gains since the April 1 breakout.
ReplyDeleteReopening ASHR (China 'A' Shares) on today's -2.5% decline.
Traded GTBC (Bitcoin) between 6.81 (buy) and 7.07 (sell).
I may opt to reopen VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets) at the close.
Did moving to 100% cash yesterday clear my head? Yes, to a large extent.
Occasionally the pricing discrepancy between an ETF and its mutual fund equivalent works in my favor. Despite declines of just -0.16%/-0.180.55% discount to Wednesday's exit.
ReplyDeleteScaling back into a few positions this morning-> FXI (China 'H' Shares), IQ (iQIYI). Added to ASHR (China 'A' Shares).
Bought more NMM today at $0.90 and placed a buy limit order for more at $0.85. Also, placed a sell limit order at $1.00 for the shares purchased today.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-big-money-poll-51556309101?mod=past_editions
ReplyDeleteThere are few things more bullish than a bearish headline story in Barron's that dismisses the significance of US indexes hitting new highs.
I think markets gap higher on Monday.
Also, bought more NMCI today at $2.35.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nmci/earnings-forecast
predicts that EPS of 2.98 for 2021, more than it's current share price!
Last night I placed a buy stop order for XOP at $31.50, just above yesterday's highs. That order was triggered today and then XOP collapsed -- crap. But given the fact that USO is up for a second day in a row, I decided to buy more XOP now at $30.90. Placed sell limit orders for today's lots at $31.90, $32.50 and $33.
ReplyDeleteWow, XOP has finished in such a bargain territory! Would have never believed that it would drop below $30 with USO still above $13! Just bought some after hours at $29.90 and placed a sell limit at $30.90.
ReplyDeleteIn reverse chronological order:
ReplyDeleteAll positions off end of day. There was a nice pop post-Fed, but I think we'll need a pullback for a sustained move higher.
On Tue, Apr 30, 2019 at 6:02 PM wrote:
Note that the Hong Kong stock exchange will be closed on Wednesday for Labour Day. The Shanghai exchange will be closed Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for the same reason. Neither closure will impede price movements in China ETFs that trade on US exchanges.
On Tue, Apr 30, 2019 at 5:04 PM wrote:
If the after-hours +5% spike in AAPL (Apple) continues into Wednesday's open, the chase is on. The DJIA may soon join the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in printing new all-time highs.
In the meantime, the latest round of US/China trade talks has generated little enthusiasm - a bullish development that heightens the odds for a steep rally in the Shanghai Composite.
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