The market looks ahead- it does not look back. It will become increasingly difficult to buy tickets at decent prices. Although I hear one can still find them on Travelzoo- or in the form of TZOO common.
Looking at it from 1999 to now on a monthly shows a very defined channel. We have clearly broke through the top. Since 1999 we have gone back and touch the bottom of the trend twice, so gold is clearly vulnerable here.
Hitting the bottom of the channel here would takes us to 1250 ish. More likely outcome would be 1500 ish at the center of the channel or say 1550 the B/O point.
The other ting to keep in mind is that gold is usually weak in the summer and picks up strength in Aug going into SEP, we bucked those seasonal's this year.
What's it all about Angie?
Illini, go for the Nadurra straight from the bottle into a glass, no ice. WOW
t3d- I don't take any market commentator, 2nd_ave included, too seriously. We're all wrong most of the time. Instead, I strive for some combination of common sense, life experience, gaming, luck, and market Zen- which seems to keep my portfolio moving forward over time- which is all I ask.
Why are we all wrong most of the time? I don't know, really. One reason may be something you've pointed out several times- one trader's formula for success may be another trader's poison.
Mauldin is just one man. It looks like he graduated a few years ahead of me. So is Bernanke. There are people in Mauldin's audience, or sitting around Bernanke's conference table, far smarter than either of them. There are contemporaries far smarter than they are. And they all disagree, and for the most part will all be wrong. Those are the limitations of human intelligence.
The very fact that market commentators make appearances and sell newsletters/books- that's a red flag right there. Regardless of how much knowledge/experience I accumulate, I just can't see myself doing that. It all comes down to WTF do I really know? Nothing.
I took a year off. I made up for lost time last night. Started with Coors. Moved to Sierra Nevada. On to some high gravity P'land stuff. Culminating in a shared 2 liter bottle of "Early Times". Oh yeah, and a few long islands thrown in for good measure:(
Let's assume for a moment that someone is able to predict market direction >70% of the time. Apart from ego, what reason would he have to make his record public? The smart move would be to quietly continue making money on his system.
What if I were to start a fee-for-market advice newsletter? Again, apart from ego, were I that good at making calls, I would neither want to start a newsletter nor need the money from selling one.
Finally, let's assume that on my deathbed I reveal my 'system' in a moment of delirium. Within a short period of time, that 'system' would be rendered useless by the number of people using it.
Regarding CVV, I've done a TON of work on it. I've probably spent a good 15 hours or so researching it. It will be the number 1 momo stock heading into 2012.
I pestered ThinkEquity for a week and was finally able to get their research report on it. Email me if you want it.
The only downside to it is an increase in SG+A which has/should decrease eps. I modeled about .30 eps last quarter. Fortunately, I was not in it when they spit out .14 eps.
They should probably do $10 million per quarter and at least .25 going forward. Given a good market? Probably $30 or so... Stellar IBD numbers I would assume..
As for Mauldin, this is the first time I ever watched him, seems smart. I like the presentation since it gives us a way to think about things and perhaps a road map to what to expect the economy to do based on choices made politically.
Surf never came up the last two days, today or tomorrow for sure, off to the deep blue now.
The numbers tell me that TZOO sucks, especially given management desperately "jumping the shark" (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=jump%20the%20shark)
to squeeeeeze out any possible growth with the "shotgun sales approach", the buyback and the tv commercials.
However, the chart says that it could move 55% w/in 2 weeks.
"Wall Street Journal article points out that the memo, which was sent to employees and not to the public, shouldn’t land the company into hot water with the SEC since companies have the right to speak to employees, even during quiet periods.
Although if SEC regulators do read the memo, we’re not sure what they’ll think of the "giving birth" analogy that the perennial joke-cracker Mason came up with to describe the IPO.
“For now we must patiently and silently endure a bit more public criticism as we prepare to birth this IPO baby—a breed for which there are no epidurals,” Mason says. “If there’s a silver lining, it’s that we’re almost on the other side, and the negativity leaves us well-positioned to exceed expectations with an IPO baby that, having seen the ultrasound, I can promise you is not one of those uglies.”
Jesse- I kinda agree with u abt local deals but people love coupons man...I know from experience with my website biz...also tzoo has three things going for them that the others don't:
1- a history of solid steady conservative mgmt and solid steady profitable growth in a highly competitive industry. 2 - they already have over 24 million email subs so their biz model was set up for this type of biz 3 - when compared with other online travel companies they are an aggregator meaning they pool results from airlins/hotels and from online travel companies...
Oh and a fourth- they own fly.com, a url that is gaining some big momentum in terms of mthly unique visitors.
My take is for their subs, solid balabce sheet, growing earnings, valuable urls, and large mkt opportunity I think they are very cheap at $550 mill. And if local deals is so easy to duplicate I wonder why facebook just bailed out...
Jesse I know this sounds really stupid and naive...but I've seen way too many of these highfliers over the years that have crashed and burned and scared out waaaay too many longs with conviction and then gone on to greatness..whether its nflx pcln cmg bidu pnra jcom redf(!)...the story is the same: massive volatility but highly profitable and leverageable (is that a wword) businesses. Tzoo is no different in my mind.
Man its hot out today...we went fishing with kids we,mentor abt 20 mins inland...had to be 95.
I think graphene is possibly the solution to all of our energy and infrastructure problems...in 10 yrs we'll have battery operated cars everywhere running on graphene fueled engines and bridges and roads reworked with graphene...its the super metal we've been looking for for years.
The coupon discount companies are all extremely vulnerable.The 1000 pound gorilla, the 2000 pound bull in the china sho,p the Goliath and Rodon is: Facebook. Once a user friendly application is developed that will allow businesses to offer discounts over Facebook directly the middle man will be cut out. The "I like massage deals" is checked on your facebook profile and then the app will allow businesses to offer deals directly to that crowd. Simple
CP > Valuations maybe? Excessive pessimism? Hope for the long term?
By the way, TZOO's local deals slowed down considerably over the weekend relative to last Thursday/early Friday, so my enthusiasm is tempering...however, I'm going to continue tracking it for the entire week because if the rest of the week days are as strong as the one I tracked last week then it will more than make up for the weekend weakness.
SVM - "June 17th - Besides the ripple effects from the Sino-Forest story, Silvercorp also took a hit after a news agency published a false alert about the company's quarterly revenue on June 3. The alert was withdrawn as a mistake the following Monday, Feng said."
So anyway, the H&S formation neckline is about $7, so I wouldn't be surprised to see shorts target that level and longs put up a strong defense there. Some say $7.70 is as far as they can push it while others say PM's are going to sell off with silver retesting $20, so we'll have to wait and see who's right and who's just pulling numbers out of their ass...
Currently, my money's on the H&S neckline being defended.
u guys follow IPHI at all? Recent IPO that looks interesting...50% of mkt cap in cash. got crushed because of product delays from Intel but it could go right back up when their "Romley" chips come out...Customer risk is an issue but I'd have to imagine it's baked into the price
CP > This seems like a "logical" point to short...problem is too many people don't believe this move. My suspicion is we pull back here slightly to trap more bears, then move higher.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750 CDS spreads still quite high...
Italy-Germany spread came off quite a bit, which is good...trend is still moving up unfortunately, though: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.ITAGER10:IND
Same with Spain: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.SPN:IND
The local deals for TZOO definitely pick up during the week...I just checked and over the past 4 hours they have done about $25k in sales. It will be interesting to see what the totals are for the entire week.
Mark - Yeah me too. I suspect it will get a pullback somewhere here in the next few hours / days to give the impression that it's a dead stock. I doubt it continues straight up. As the GRPN IPO date nears this will start to rally, though.
Mark > Yeah my position is just a trade too...I'd wait for a pullback first...if it doesn't come don't sweat it as it's not the strongest stock out there.
Just buy the crap out of RAS or NLS...those are strong stocks!
If the market pulls back and offers a chance to buy MMYT in the lower teens I will certainly NOT hesitate as I believe it will be a 5 to 10 bagger over 4-7 years.
Hi folks! I am back from my trip to the North Cascades NP. The best day hike I did in the park with the friend of mine was to climb Mt. Sahale -- 15 miles round trip, 5000 ft elevation gain from trailhead, passed through alpine meadows covered with wild flowers in the middle, walked on a narrow snow bridge over a 50-foot deep crevasse in the Sahale glacier near the peak, descended from the top by simply sliding down on my butt in the snow, barely arresting myself with the ice axe before cliffs. A really fun hike, which I highly recommend to anyone who will be visiting the Seattle area at some point.
While I was away, I see that the market did a great job shaking out the weak hands from the long side right after Bernanke's speech, and then, not surprisingly, the market rocketed up (since the market always moves so as to fill the void between sellers and buyers, and after that nasty drop there were no sellers left).
If I had been around on Friday, I might have stopped myself out of my S&P calls (since the crucial 1040 support level was momentarily broken on S&P futures, thus dropping below the previous low they made at 1145) and out of my TLT puts (since the 109 resistance level was also momentarily broken). But as it is right now, it looks like I lucked out as I will likely indeed profit from the bullish stance I took last week on the market. With S&P at 1206 now, I have no doubt that it is going to 1250. This rebound from the 1120 level cannot just stop at the 1207 level where the previous rebound got stalled -- we HAVE to make a nice W shape as hypothesized by TOF and rise to at least 1250 now. Consequently, TLT should drop to at least 104 (especially since it broke below the 109 support last week, then rebounded to retest it from below, passed that level briefly to shake out early shorts, and then collapsed below it).
David - Sounds like a great trip and looks like you made some nice "trades" while on your vacation (sometimes the best "trades" are no trades at all)!
I agree that the market is going higher. It seems to have an affinity for the W for the past 18 months. I wonder if that's the case for individual stocks...
I'm happy to report that I opened a 'WTF' order for TZOO at the open this morning (filled at 35.24), and am now nicely green on the position. Small position (250 shares), with no plans to sell anytime soon.
2nd_ave, another nice thing happened while I was on vacation -- I got promoted at work :). Looks like the less I show my face there, the more positive feedback I get. :))
Thanks, guys. :) Occasionally, I actually DO do some useful work for the company, with the stock market possibly serving as a creative break, during which my subconsciousness comes up with fresh and interesting ideas...
NY: Potential for floods of biblical proportion? Is this the story that caused last week's selloff?
Assuming Irene had something to do with it, I'd just have to respond by pointing out that the true miracle approaching biblical proportion would involve the complete disappearance of the mountain of debt owed by developed economies of the western world.
Is Denninger an complete idiot? I rather doubt he is. So why aren't there more of these types of observations coming from those who are market savvy?
"- Commentary on The Capital Markets Posted 2011-08-26 10:11 by Karl Denninger in Market Musings Real People Say "Screw You" To The Markets
Liquidity? None. This is the bid/offer stack in the S&P futures a few minutes into the trading day.
Nobody is talking about this. That's 27 - twenty-seven contracts - on the bid at 1146.75. During the trading day. There's less than a thousand up and down the stack through the entire visible portion.
This is a tiny fraction of normal liquidity and those sub-100 numbers are more-akin to what you expect in the middle of the night when everyone's sleeping!
All that's left is the computers. The humans have gone home. True liquidity and participation has ended. The people have given up. This is not an isolated incident - as I write this I'm seeing it literally minute-by-minute, and it's been very common all month. A few minutes ago I saw seven contracts on the bid at the money. Seven - at 9:57 (ET) in the morning.
The fraud, the phony bids and offers and the high-frequency ripoffs have driven everyone away.
Go ahead politicians, tell us how important "Wall Street" is to the economy and to you. Let the thieves and liars continue to pollute the markets and screw everyone. Volatility is as high as it is precisely because people are tired of getting buttraped and after a few instances of it they simply say "screw this", take their money and go home.
They don't need the markets, the markets need them, and they're gone.
With no depth in the market huge moves become commonplace and are essentially impossible to trade.
I've never seen the market this illiquid during the day as it has been the last few weeks. It's ridiculously bad and getting worse. When you see two-digit bids and offers during the trading day in the stack you may as well be playing with a loaded six-shooter pointed at your own head - you can't possibly trade ahead of these jackasses and they can and will steal your money,******your stops and then reverse the market right out from under you before you can react. All you do is churn your account and waste your capital.
Don't even try to "invest" in this market folks, and if you decide to trade, realize that you're playing in a rigged casino and the entire force of the government is not only behind rigging the casino but explicitly endorses and permits the rigging to go on and continue, despite being fully-aware of it.
Remember, "Wall Street is Main Street" to them - and if that means your retirement and investments get destroyed that's just fine provided that big buildings in downtown Manhatten continue to be infested by the thieves guild that pumps tithes into campaign coffers.
Oh, if you think that liquidity was bad, you should have seen it on the release of the speech. There were double-digit bid and offers up and down the stack, and the collapse of about 1% you saw was a direct consequence of an illiquid market. So was the subsequent ramp job, roughly 2% in minutes. This chainsaw is more than happy to cut your arms and legs off with both sides of the bar.
Make sure you thank Congress and our wonderful "President", all of whom are far more interested in making sure that the banksters simply rob you blind than anything else when it comes to the economy.
In fact, by their actions it's clear that's all they care about. "
[09:48] {Threei} something is very strange about this market [10:25] {Threei} market resumed this slow climb which I hate so much [10:25] {Threei} impossible to find trades in this [10:25] {Threei} waiting for something to change
and from last week,
[10:11] {Threei} I am not overly active so far guys, main reason being: [10:12] {Threei} something changes in the market [10:12] {Threei} and I haven't grasped the full extent and character of a change yet [10:12] {Threei} so staying on a careful side
CP / Guys - My take is there were waaaaay too many pessimists / shorts in the market. Pessimists being the "weak" longs that were looking for an excuse to get out and shorts...well, you know the Karl Denninger types.
My take: the selling is over (for now)...so it goes higher.
I just looked at my TZOO local deals tracking again and it really picked up over the past 4 hours so it's really clear that people love taking advantage of local deals during the week and possibly using the local deals on the weekend. In fact, over the past 4 hours they have done $72k in gross sales in 49 (of 75 total) cities, which is really amazing. That's a run rate $18.6 Million per month or $56 MM per quarter.
In fact, in the past 4 hours they did the same amount they did from Saturday night through Sunday night.
If I assume this trend continues for an entire week and assume the weekend rate stays for each weekend I get to $13.9MM per month in gross sales per month or $41.7MM per quarter. At a 32% commission that's $13.3 MM net revenues and if you add to core revenues (which I'm assuming only grow 6%) then you get $43MM, which is well above estimates.
My hunch (not a strong one) is that TZOO local deals will be slightly disappointing during the quarter.
On the other hand, my thought is that their core biz will be up perhaps quite a bit more than people anticipate. I think that the tv campaign may have done two things: 1)Help bring in an additional 1 million or so new "motivated" subscribers, and 2) Helped create excitement in the brand and perhaps "remind" old subscribers to take another look at the Top 20 etc. It is also peak travel season which is a plus.
I actually really liked the tv commercial and am awaiting the day when 2nd features it in one of his posts:) Perhaps when TZOO makes a new 52 week high lol.
One last thought. With the entire East coast being ravaged by a hurricane, everyone watching CNN and boarding up their homes, on top of the fact that there are millions without power, perhaps local deals were lower than a normal weekend.
Interesting take on the hurricane effect Jesse...I didn't even think of that. If the weekday rates keep up as well as they have been the past 2.5 week days I have been tracking then I doubt they will disappoint.
The question is how do you value TZOO based on GRPN's IPO price? Initially, I wanted to look at # of subscribers, but out of TZOO's 24 million subs, I'm guessing only a few million subscribe solely for the local deals.
You can't compare the companies on profit as GRPN loses money. I think the only way to objectively compare the stocks is to look at local deal revenue.
GRPN revenue last quarter was $645 million. TOF projects TZOO local deal revenue at $42 million per quarter. This is roughly 7% of GRPN's revenue per quarter. If GRPN IPOs at $15 billion, TZOO local deals segment should be valued at $1.05 billion. If GRPN IPOs at $20 billion, TZOO local deals segment should be valued at $1.4 billion.
Now, one must look at what TZOO's traditional business is worth. The easiest way to determine this imo is to look at TZOO's stock price before they announced local deals. Their stock was fluctuating between 15 and 20 dollars.
So, depending on the ultimate GRPN ipo price, I would give TZOO a fair value price of 75 based on $15 for its traditional biz plus 60 based on a GRPN $15 billion ipo. The upper end would be $104 based on $20 plus $84.
Long story short, there's no way TZOO hits either one of those targets prior to the ipo, but it certainly gives one confidence to hold for more than a day or two.
The sell-signal would be the very SECOND that GRPN lead underwriters announce pricing. My assumption would be that TZOO would sell off hard (assuming a moderate run-up into the ipo) the day of the ipo.
Worship at all alter's?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mn4ujPLKvA&feature=player_embedded#!
Gold
ReplyDeleteLooking at it from 1999 to now on a monthly shows a very defined channel. We have clearly broke through the top. Since 1999 we have gone back and touch the bottom of the trend twice, so gold is clearly vulnerable here.
Hitting the bottom of the channel here would takes us to 1250 ish. More likely outcome would be 1500 ish at the center of the channel or say 1550 the B/O point.
The other ting to keep in mind is that gold is usually weak in the summer and picks up strength in Aug going into SEP, we bucked those seasonal's this year.
What's it all about Angie?
Illini, go for the Nadurra straight from the bottle into a glass, no ice. WOW
Thanks for the info TOF. I'll take a pass on furniture for now.
ReplyDeleteToo bad Ikea is not public - they might make an interesting investment, plus there financials would be valuable in understanding the industry.
t3d- I don't take any market commentator, 2nd_ave included, too seriously. We're all wrong most of the time. Instead, I strive for some combination of common sense, life experience, gaming, luck, and market Zen- which seems to keep my portfolio moving forward over time- which is all I ask.
ReplyDeleteWhy are we all wrong most of the time? I don't know, really. One reason may be something you've pointed out several times- one trader's formula for success may be another trader's poison.
Mauldin is just one man. It looks like he graduated a few years ahead of me. So is Bernanke. There are people in Mauldin's audience, or sitting around Bernanke's conference table, far smarter than either of them. There are contemporaries far smarter than they are. And they all disagree, and for the most part will all be wrong. Those are the limitations of human intelligence.
The very fact that market commentators make appearances and sell newsletters/books- that's a red flag right there. Regardless of how much knowledge/experience I accumulate, I just can't see myself doing that. It all comes down to WTF do I really know? Nothing.
ReplyDeleteDrinking topics.
ReplyDeleteI took a year off. I made up for lost time last night. Started with Coors. Moved to Sierra Nevada. On to some high gravity P'land stuff. Culminating in a shared 2 liter bottle of "Early Times". Oh yeah, and a few long islands thrown in for good measure:(
Where am I? I don't know.
Let's assume for a moment that someone is able to predict market direction >70% of the time. Apart from ego, what reason would he have to make his record public? The smart move would be to quietly continue making money on his system.
ReplyDeleteWhat if I were to start a fee-for-market advice newsletter? Again, apart from ego, were I that good at making calls, I would neither want to start a newsletter nor need the money from selling one.
Finally, let's assume that on my deathbed I reveal my 'system' in a moment of delirium. Within a short period of time, that 'system' would be rendered useless by the number of people using it.
TOF- Congratulations on your future baby boy!
ReplyDeleteRegarding CVV, I've done a TON of work on it. I've probably spent a good 15 hours or so researching it. It will be the number 1 momo stock heading into 2012.
I pestered ThinkEquity for a week and was finally able to get their research report on it. Email me if you want it.
The only downside to it is an increase in SG+A which has/should decrease eps. I modeled about .30 eps last quarter. Fortunately, I was not in it when they spit out .14 eps.
They should probably do $10 million per quarter and at least .25 going forward. Given a good market? Probably $30 or so... Stellar IBD numbers I would assume..
jesse- WTF. Binging after a year off is like running a marathon after a year of channel surfing.
ReplyDelete2nd, nice observation's.
ReplyDeleteAs for Mauldin, this is the first time I ever watched him, seems smart. I like the presentation since it gives us a way to think about things and perhaps a road map to what to expect the economy to do based on choices made politically.
Surf never came up the last two days, today or tomorrow for sure, off to the deep blue now.
The numbers tell me that TZOO sucks, especially given management desperately "jumping the shark" (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=jump%20the%20shark)
ReplyDeleteto squeeeeeze out any possible growth with the "shotgun sales approach", the buyback and the tv commercials.
However, the chart says that it could move 55% w/in 2 weeks.
Go figure.
jesse- Can we trust your take on TZOO given your current state of mind ;)
ReplyDelete2nd, you just violated your rule with that smiley face or whatever it is.
ReplyDeleteFor TZOO, what takes precedence? Monthly, weekly, or daily?
The daily chart tells me its about to fall off a cliff.
The weekly says it goes to 52.
And check out the monthly: Do you guys see what I see on this one? Hint: connect the monthly bottoms with a ruler or business card.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TZOO&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
Seriously, take a piece of paper and play "connect the dots" on the monthly chart. Its really cool.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm not just saying that because I'm wasted.
What if hell freezes over for TOF and TZOO forms a hammer on the monthly chart?
ReplyDeleteMonthly hammer finishing at 57 (by Wednesday lol) which leads to breakout from hammer next month. Closing September at 70:)
God, if only the market performed to our desires.....
You may disagree, but I guarantee "Local Deals" (as a biz model) will be long gone in 2 years due to competition and MAJOR margin compression.
ReplyDeleteGRPN NEEDS to go public NOW.
GS, MS, CSFB, ML: It is now time to juice the FUC# out of TZOO for comps. There is $20 BILLION (with a B) on the line. Let's dance.
8/26: GRPN
ReplyDelete"Wall Street Journal article points out that the memo, which was sent to employees and not to the public, shouldn’t land the company into hot water with the SEC since companies have the right to speak to employees, even during quiet periods.
Although if SEC regulators do read the memo, we’re not sure what they’ll think of the "giving birth" analogy that the perennial joke-cracker Mason came up with to describe the IPO.
“For now we must patiently and silently endure a bit more public criticism as we prepare to birth this IPO baby—a breed for which there are no epidurals,” Mason says. “If there’s a silver lining, it’s that we’re almost on the other side, and the negativity leaves us well-positioned to exceed expectations with an IPO baby that, having seen the ultrasound, I can promise you is not one of those uglies.”
Jesse- Please continue drinking.
ReplyDeleteJesse- I kinda agree with u abt local deals but people love coupons man...I know from experience with my website biz...also tzoo has three things going for them that the others don't:
ReplyDelete1- a history of solid steady conservative mgmt and solid steady profitable growth in a highly competitive industry.
2 - they already have over 24 million email subs so their biz model was set up for this type of biz
3 - when compared with other online travel companies they are an aggregator meaning they pool results from airlins/hotels and from online travel companies...
Oh and a fourth- they own fly.com, a url that is gaining some big momentum in terms of mthly unique visitors.
My take is for their subs, solid balabce sheet, growing earnings, valuable urls, and large mkt opportunity I think they are very cheap at $550 mill. And if local deals is so easy to duplicate I wonder why facebook just bailed out...
However, im gonna keep tracking their daily deals
http://livingsocial.com/deals/42180-detox-foot-bath-22-or-hour-long-massage-30
ReplyDeleteJesse I know this sounds really stupid and naive...but I've seen way too many of these highfliers over the years that have crashed and burned and scared out waaaay too many longs with conviction and then gone on to greatness..whether its nflx pcln cmg bidu pnra jcom redf(!)...the story is the same: massive volatility but highly profitable and leverageable (is that a wword) businesses. Tzoo is no different in my mind.
ReplyDeleteI say we gap and go tmrw
ReplyDeleteMan its hot out today...we went fishing with kids we,mentor abt 20 mins inland...had to be 95.
ReplyDeleteI think graphene is possibly the solution to all of our energy and infrastructure problems...in 10 yrs we'll have battery operated cars everywhere running on graphene fueled engines and bridges and roads reworked with graphene...its the super metal we've been looking for for years.
The coupon discount companies are all extremely vulnerable.The 1000 pound gorilla, the 2000 pound bull in the china sho,p the Goliath and Rodon is: Facebook. Once a user friendly application is developed that will allow businesses to offer discounts over Facebook directly the middle man will be cut out. The "I like massage deals" is checked on your facebook profile and then the app will allow businesses to offer deals directly to that crowd. Simple
ReplyDeleteAn Hour With Arnold Palmer....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kirkreport.com/category/freereports/
Rb thats what i thought back 6 mths ago but faacebook just backed out of their deals thing...I think ppl don't go to fb to shop they go to socialize
ReplyDeleteCan you monetize car town?
ReplyDeleteyeah i think they sell those parts and other crap in those games right? thats part of how zynga makes so much $$
ReplyDeleteToday looks to be a good day to go long, let's see if I'm right...
ReplyDeleteI don't trust this market after this last stunt though, probably because I haven't identified a convincing catalyst for a rally.
CP > Valuations maybe? Excessive pessimism? Hope for the long term?
ReplyDeleteBy the way, TZOO's local deals slowed down considerably over the weekend relative to last Thursday/early Friday, so my enthusiasm is tempering...however, I'm going to continue tracking it for the entire week because if the rest of the week days are as strong as the one I tracked last week then it will more than make up for the weekend weakness.
Ugly open for gold.
ReplyDeleteMark - Gold was a blow off top...not sure how long the top lasted by Friday's action was a bull trap.
ReplyDeleteZero hour, 9 am.
ReplyDeleteI closed my GLD short at $174.15...Made a bit of money but really just looking for other opportunities.
ReplyDeleteSVM - "June 17th - Besides the ripple effects from the Sino-Forest story, Silvercorp also took a hit after a news agency published a false alert about the company's quarterly revenue on June 3. The alert was withdrawn as a mistake the following Monday, Feng said."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.miningweekly.com/print-version/silvercorp-eyes-500my-revenue-with-two-new-mines-starting-up-2011-06-17
So anyway, the H&S formation neckline is about $7, so I wouldn't be surprised to see shorts target that level and longs put up a strong defense there. Some say $7.70 is as far as they can push it while others say PM's are going to sell off with silver retesting $20, so we'll have to wait and see who's right and who's just pulling numbers out of their ass...
Currently, my money's on the H&S neckline being defended.
u guys follow IPHI at all? Recent IPO that looks interesting...50% of mkt cap in cash. got crushed because of product delays from Intel but it could go right back up when their "Romley" chips come out...Customer risk is an issue but I'd have to imagine it's baked into the price
ReplyDeleteGMO - Last year this one bottomed just following my birthday, what are the chances this phenomenon repeats again this year?
ReplyDeleteI say the odds aren't good, even though it appears a bottom may have been formed.
Am I crazy or does FXE look really strong?
ReplyDeleteIf you believe in the long term demand for farmland because of dwindling resources and population growth, what's the best play?
ReplyDeleteCRESY looks interesting...
"Am I crazy or does FXE look really strong?"
ReplyDeleteYes, it does look that way, and I don't trust it.
Which probably means the move is real...
CRESY - Dang, that one does have a low risk entry feel to it...
ReplyDeleteS&P - 1200 good short entry? I don't have the stones for that...
ReplyDeleteReally, so we're not shorting this gap up, is that it?
ReplyDeleteCP > This seems like a "logical" point to short...problem is too many people don't believe this move. My suspicion is we pull back here slightly to trap more bears, then move higher.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
ReplyDeleteCDS spreads still quite high...
Italy-Germany spread came off quite a bit, which is good...trend is still moving up unfortunately, though:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.ITAGER10:IND
Same with Spain:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.SPN:IND
Man, this move has been relentless.
ReplyDeleteThe local deals for TZOO definitely pick up during the week...I just checked and over the past 4 hours they have done about $25k in sales. It will be interesting to see what the totals are for the entire week.
ReplyDeleteMark - It's most likely going to be more relentless...
ReplyDeleteTOF- Nice pop for the ZOO. Would love to see that sucker squeeze higher!
ReplyDeleteMark - Yeah me too. I suspect it will get a pullback somewhere here in the next few hours / days to give the impression that it's a dead stock. I doubt it continues straight up. As the GRPN IPO date nears this will start to rally, though.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yep, I agree on that take. Still debating a position. Not sure why really, as it's only a trade.
ReplyDeleteMark > Yeah my position is just a trade too...I'd wait for a pullback first...if it doesn't come don't sweat it as it's not the strongest stock out there.
ReplyDeleteJust buy the crap out of RAS or NLS...those are strong stocks!
If the market pulls back and offers a chance to buy MMYT in the lower teens I will certainly NOT hesitate as I believe it will be a 5 to 10 bagger over 4-7 years.
ReplyDeleteTOF- What mentor program are you part of?
ReplyDeleteSome strange trading going on in HEK today.
ReplyDeleteHi folks! I am back from my trip to the North Cascades NP. The best day hike I did in the park with the friend of mine was to climb Mt. Sahale -- 15 miles round trip, 5000 ft elevation gain from trailhead, passed through alpine meadows covered with wild flowers in the middle, walked on a narrow snow bridge over a 50-foot deep crevasse in the Sahale glacier near the peak, descended from the top by simply sliding down on my butt in the snow, barely arresting myself with the ice axe before cliffs. A really fun hike, which I highly recommend to anyone who will be visiting the Seattle area at some point.
ReplyDeleteWhile I was away, I see that the market did a great job shaking out the weak hands from the long side right after Bernanke's speech, and then, not surprisingly, the market rocketed up (since the market always moves so as to fill the void between sellers and buyers, and after that nasty drop there were no sellers left).
If I had been around on Friday, I might have stopped myself out of my S&P calls (since the crucial 1040 support level was momentarily broken on S&P futures, thus dropping below the previous low they made at 1145) and out of my TLT puts (since the 109 resistance level was also momentarily broken). But as it is right now, it looks like I lucked out as I will likely indeed profit from the bullish stance I took last week on the market. With S&P at 1206 now, I have no doubt that it is going to 1250. This rebound from the 1120 level cannot just stop at the 1207 level where the previous rebound got stalled -- we HAVE to make a nice W shape as hypothesized by TOF and rise to at least 1250 now. Consequently, TLT should drop to at least 104 (especially since it broke below the 109 support last week, then rebounded to retest it from below, passed that level briefly to shake out early shorts, and then collapsed below it).
David - Sounds like a great trip and looks like you made some nice "trades" while on your vacation (sometimes the best "trades" are no trades at all)!
ReplyDeleteI agree that the market is going higher. It seems to have an affinity for the W for the past 18 months. I wonder if that's the case for individual stocks...
I'm happy to report that I opened a 'WTF' order for TZOO at the open this morning (filled at 35.24), and am now nicely green on the position. Small position (250 shares), with no plans to sell anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Always nice when positions move your way while on vacation!
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, another nice thing happened while I was on vacation -- I got promoted at work :). Looks like the less I show my face there, the more positive feedback I get. :))
ReplyDeleteNo shit! We're all working for the wrong company.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations! I'm sure there's a good reason for it.
I should say the rest of us are working for the wrong company.
ReplyDeleteMaybe you should check your bank account for more unexpected deposits related to your promotion ;)
I just saw this headline:
ReplyDelete"World stocks, oil, surge on landmark Greek banking deal
Aug 29, 2011"
Okay, so it appears there was a catalyst...?!?!?
David - Congrats on your promotion! ;)
NBG - Gained a mere 37% today, I see...
ReplyDeleteSweat David! Wish I could pull that off :))
ReplyDeleteThanks, guys. :) Occasionally, I actually DO do some useful work for the company, with the stock market possibly serving as a creative break, during which my subconsciousness comes up with fresh and interesting ideas...
ReplyDeleteNY: Potential for floods of biblical proportion? Is this the story that caused last week's selloff?
ReplyDeleteAssuming Irene had something to do with it, I'd just have to respond by pointing out that the true miracle approaching biblical proportion would involve the complete disappearance of the mountain of debt owed by developed economies of the western world.
Okay guys, I'm feeling a little behind the curve concerning today's rally, even though the charts seemed to indicate some upside was due.
ReplyDeleteAm I the only one here to have learned of the Greecian debt deal not until following today's close?
If so, I'm certainly glad I don't often attempt day trading...
http://screencast.com/t/NcLWhSIARs3
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/W8WsMXZmFaf
http://screencast.com/t/8SdF6fedXA
http://screencast.com/t/FqmBy1mPk
fyi
Is Denninger an complete idiot? I rather doubt he is. So why aren't there more of these types of observations coming from those who are market savvy?
ReplyDelete"- Commentary on The Capital Markets Posted 2011-08-26 10:11
by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings
Real People Say "Screw You" To The Markets
Liquidity? None. This is the bid/offer stack in the S&P futures a few minutes into the trading day.
Nobody is talking about this. That's 27 - twenty-seven contracts - on the bid at 1146.75. During the trading day. There's less than a thousand up and down the stack through the entire visible portion.
This is a tiny fraction of normal liquidity and those sub-100 numbers are more-akin to what you expect in the middle of the night when everyone's sleeping!
All that's left is the computers. The humans have gone home. True liquidity and participation has ended. The people have given up. This is not an isolated incident - as I write this I'm seeing it literally minute-by-minute, and it's been very common all month. A few minutes ago I saw seven contracts on the bid at the money. Seven - at 9:57 (ET) in the morning.
The fraud, the phony bids and offers and the high-frequency ripoffs have driven everyone away.
Go ahead politicians, tell us how important "Wall Street" is to the economy and to you. Let the thieves and liars continue to pollute the markets and screw everyone. Volatility is as high as it is precisely because people are tired of getting buttraped and after a few instances of it they simply say "screw this", take their money and go home.
They don't need the markets, the markets need them, and they're gone.
With no depth in the market huge moves become commonplace and are essentially impossible to trade.
I've never seen the market this illiquid during the day as it has been the last few weeks. It's ridiculously bad and getting worse. When you see two-digit bids and offers during the trading day in the stack you may as well be playing with a loaded six-shooter pointed at your own head - you can't possibly trade ahead of these jackasses and they can and will steal your money,******your stops and then reverse the market right out from under you before you can react. All you do is churn your account and waste your capital.
Don't even try to "invest" in this market folks, and if you decide to trade, realize that you're playing in a rigged casino and the entire force of the government is not only behind rigging the casino but explicitly endorses and permits the rigging to go on and continue, despite being fully-aware of it.
Remember, "Wall Street is Main Street" to them - and if that means your retirement and investments get destroyed that's just fine provided that big buildings in downtown Manhatten continue to be infested by the thieves guild that pumps tithes into campaign coffers.
Oh, if you think that liquidity was bad, you should have seen it on the release of the speech. There were double-digit bid and offers up and down the stack, and the collapse of about 1% you saw was a direct consequence of an illiquid market. So was the subsequent ramp job, roughly 2% in minutes. This chainsaw is more than happy to cut your arms and legs off with both sides of the bar.
Make sure you thank Congress and our wonderful "President", all of whom are far more interested in making sure that the banksters simply rob you blind than anything else when it comes to the economy.
In fact, by their actions it's clear that's all they care about. "
T3D - Not that it should matter, but I rarely follow your posts and links anymore.
ReplyDeleteCP, okay, its a free country and blog.
ReplyDeleteActually, maybe you can all chime in and if you would like me not to post anymore, I can stop.
ReplyDeleteT3d
cp - FWIW, Vad has been sensing a change too...
ReplyDelete[09:48] {Threei} something is very strange about this market
[10:25] {Threei} market resumed this slow climb which I hate so much
[10:25] {Threei} impossible to find trades in this
[10:25] {Threei} waiting for something to change
and from last week,
[10:11] {Threei} I am not overly active so far guys, main reason being:
[10:12] {Threei} something changes in the market
[10:12] {Threei} and I haven't grasped the full extent and character of a change yet
[10:12] {Threei} so staying on a careful side
T3d - Please continue your posts. We all look at this market from different vantage points. Thanks, Kyle
ReplyDeleteCP / Guys - My take is there were waaaaay too many pessimists / shorts in the market. Pessimists being the "weak" longs that were looking for an excuse to get out and shorts...well, you know the Karl Denninger types.
ReplyDeleteMy take: the selling is over (for now)...so it goes higher.
I just looked at my TZOO local deals tracking again and it really picked up over the past 4 hours so it's really clear that people love taking advantage of local deals during the week and possibly using the local deals on the weekend. In fact, over the past 4 hours they have done $72k in gross sales in 49 (of 75 total) cities, which is really amazing. That's a run rate $18.6 Million per month or $56 MM per quarter.
In fact, in the past 4 hours they did the same amount they did from Saturday night through Sunday night.
If I assume this trend continues for an entire week and assume the weekend rate stays for each weekend I get to $13.9MM per month in gross sales per month or $41.7MM per quarter. At a 32% commission that's $13.3 MM net revenues and if you add to core revenues (which I'm assuming only grow 6%) then you get $43MM, which is well above estimates.
TOF-
ReplyDeleteMy hunch (not a strong one) is that TZOO local deals will be slightly disappointing during the quarter.
On the other hand, my thought is that their core biz will be up perhaps quite a bit more than people anticipate. I think that the tv campaign may have done two things: 1)Help bring in an additional 1 million or so new "motivated" subscribers, and 2) Helped create excitement in the brand and perhaps "remind" old subscribers to take another look at the Top 20 etc. It is also peak travel season which is a plus.
I actually really liked the tv commercial and am awaiting the day when 2nd features it in one of his posts:) Perhaps when TZOO makes a new 52 week high lol.
One last thought. With the entire East coast being ravaged by a hurricane, everyone watching CNN and boarding up their homes, on top of the fact that there are millions without power, perhaps local deals were lower than a normal weekend.
By the way there's another drinking local deal for you DTer's in SF:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.travelzoo.com/local-deals/deal/5071
Mark > The mentoring thing we do is with the YMCA...we mentor two kids whose father was incarcerated.
Interesting take on the hurricane effect Jesse...I didn't even think of that. If the weekday rates keep up as well as they have been the past 2.5 week days I have been tracking then I doubt they will disappoint.
ReplyDeleteThe question is how do you value TZOO based on GRPN's IPO price? Initially, I wanted to look at # of subscribers, but out of TZOO's 24 million subs, I'm guessing only a few million subscribe solely for the local deals.
ReplyDeleteYou can't compare the companies on profit as GRPN loses money. I think the only way to objectively compare the stocks is to look at local deal revenue.
GRPN revenue last quarter was $645 million. TOF projects TZOO local deal revenue at $42 million per quarter. This is roughly 7% of GRPN's revenue per quarter. If GRPN IPOs at $15 billion, TZOO local deals segment should be valued at $1.05 billion. If GRPN IPOs at $20 billion, TZOO local deals segment should be valued at $1.4 billion.
Now, one must look at what TZOO's traditional business is worth. The easiest way to determine this imo is to look at TZOO's stock price before they announced local deals. Their stock was fluctuating between 15 and 20 dollars.
So, depending on the ultimate GRPN ipo price, I would give TZOO a fair value price of 75 based on $15 for its traditional biz plus 60 based on a GRPN $15 billion ipo. The upper end would be $104 based on $20 plus $84.
Long story short, there's no way TZOO hits either one of those targets prior to the ipo, but it certainly gives one confidence to hold for more than a day or two.
new post
ReplyDeleteThe sell-signal would be the very SECOND that GRPN lead underwriters announce pricing. My assumption would be that TZOO would sell off hard (assuming a moderate run-up into the ipo) the day of the ipo.
ReplyDeleteWhy we spend so much time, money, and effort concentrating on terrorism:
ReplyDeletehttp://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/causesofdeath-01.png
SVM - Interesting chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://savecapitalism.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/silvercorp4.png?w=578&h=246