Wednesday, August 31, 2011
08/31/11 When The Music's Over
The music is your special friend
Dance on fire as it intends
Music is your only friend
Until the end
Until the end
Until the end
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
The final destination? The day I'm able to book a flight to Boston/reserve a table in the Back Bay on TZOO in the morning- any morning I'm in the mood. I won't forget my friends in the House of Detention.
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Nice going, Mark. Between you and David, I'm confident I won't need to bring any cash to the next few dinners.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow? I see Thursday as 'set up' day. Let the bowling pins, I mean the bears have their one day this week.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of TZOO- the solitary mentality has now become second nature. No worries.
ReplyDeleteStopped in at TJ's after work and noticed Mission St, now makes an India Pale Ale. I'll fill you in when I make the rounds at the local art festival this weekend. I'm tired of paying vendors $5/cup for draft beer, and plan on taking a thermos of IPA instead.
ReplyDeleteCan't believe TZOO changed hands at 101 a mere 4 months ago.
ReplyDeleteSmall world, I used to work under Dr. Chris Gronet while at AMAT.
ReplyDeleteFremont:
"The California solar panel manufacturer that received a high-profile $535-million Energy Department loan guarantee said it was ceasing operations, laying of 1,100 workers and preparing to file for bankruptcy protection.
Solyndra would become the third such company to file for bankruptcy in recent days. Spectrawatt Inc. of Hopewell Junction, N.Y., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Aug. 19. Evergreen Solar Inc. of Marlboro, Mass., filed for Chapter 11 on Aug. 15."
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-solar-shutdown-20110901,0,5045155.story
Illini, luckily I was climbing mountains in the North Cascades NP on Friday and couldn't stop myself out at $109. I am still holding all those TLT puts. Hoping to see TLT break below $106 tomorrow, which is, however, contrary to 2nd_ave's expectation of a down day tomorrow. Bummer...
ReplyDeleteDavid- No worries. TLT should be back in the nineties soon enough. If I were a betting man, and I am a betting man, I would bet dinner. But why would I mess with a sure thing- having you and Mark pick up the checks for our next few dinners?
ReplyDeleteThere's also the possibility...make that the probability that the market will kick the bowling pins before they're able to set up- gap up Thursday, again on Friday, and sure as hell on Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteGUYS I am in purgatory. I can't seem to post from work because blogger blocks my sign on. Did you guys ban me? What would you do without pithy remarks from the land 110 degrees. If I am not banned can some one think of a remedy? Might be my work firewall not allowing a cookie.
ReplyDeleteRB- Get a real job without computer restrictions? :)
ReplyDeleteDinner on me 2nd. In fact, I'll pay to fly TOF into town for it if he'd like.
ReplyDeleteCP- That's a big story here obviously. Can't you just see the Rep. campaign commercials now?
ReplyDeleteHas anyone seen RB post lately, wonder where he disappeared to?
ReplyDeleteIm always down for a free flight!
ReplyDelete"Can't you just see the Rep. campaign commercials now?"
ReplyDeleteSure, the Rep's are the best at being hypocritical. I have to repeat though, I never thought the stimulus package was well thought out. I also don't recall much input from the Reps, they were still claiming the economy was strong and housing market wasn't overextended, weren't they? The truth is, American payscales is way out of line for global competition. Why hire one American when you can hire 42 Chinese for the same amount?
FTWR - +46%!?!?!
ReplyDeleteIllini, great TLT trades, by the way! Next time, it would be great if you let us know ahead of time that you are planning to make one of those trades and also explain your reasoning about why you think that trade will work out. Then we'll be able to join you and make some bucks as well!
ReplyDeleteTZOO guys
ReplyDeleteI was going to buy some before my trip. This just out. July and August deals lower than June. Not good for momo traders expecting month over month ramp in revenues for local deals.
TZOO Travelzoo target lowered to $60 at The Benchmark Company (36.52 )
The Benchmark Company lowers their TZOO tgt to $60 from $80. Firm notes Local Deals revenue creation over the last few months has held relatively steady, pacing on track to reach their $31 million 3Q11E gross. They tracked both July and August at $10 mln monthly gross revenue, slightly below June at $10.8 mln. They suspect that fewer deals offered in late August may be a function of seasonality and they would expect the number of deals offered to increase in September. They believe co stands well-positioned to benefit from steady travel advertising and building consumer interest in Local Deals. Using a PEG of 1.0x, or 30x 2012E EPS of $2.00, their price target is $60 per share.
5K more MITK off @ 12.08
ReplyDeleteAll right. I'm done. Another 4.5K off at 12.02...and that's all she wrote. 100% cash.
ReplyDeleteWhere'd that rally come from?!?!?
ReplyDeleteWow Mark...just wow.
ReplyDeleteWow, is the ISM really THAT good?? I'm serious.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yeah, it's fair to say I got really lucky...and a round trip dinner for you in SF!
ReplyDeleteOK everyone. Let's start looking for a free Sat. for dinner. I'll post the weekends I will be traveling.
On another front...BEXP continues is push higher.
ReplyDeleteBest open today...TBT.
ReplyDeletecomplete nonsense again today (ES and TF), the past three days have been incredible.
ReplyDeleteMark - I must have missed it, you have a major score???
ReplyDeleteJB- Just MITK. All out now.
ReplyDeleteLast time I took off a great trade, XCO, I told Patricia that morning.
MB- Hey, we just had a real good day in the markets today.
PB- Can I get a new car?
MB- No.
PB- Then I don't care.
at least she asked...:-)
ReplyDeleteJB- Nonsense? Seems to be just bouncing around it's pivots?
ReplyDeleteJB- HA!!!
ReplyDeleteMark - just look at the action 5mins after the ISM and the 25mins on Mon into the close. the key number on the ES is 1225, and it's not being respected whatsoever, the TF pivot is 28.3 and we're spinning around between 23.9 and 34.9.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I just don't have a large enough bankroll to use the required stops.
at least it is confusing to me...LOL
good job on the MITK trade. I'm still going to hold out for a takeover
JB- OK, I'll check it out.
ReplyDeleteMITK- Yeah, there's also another potential catalyst coming up. Naming a new CFO. If they bring in a heavy weight like Hart, it could move the stock.
My position was REALLY large, so I cashed in...For now. I WILL get back in if allowed. And one thing I've learned, is we usually get another chance.
TBT- Man, so much for a nice open. Jeeze.
ReplyDeleteMark - go in to Infinity or TOS and sign up for a practice account, that way you can get free, real time futures quotes and charting, at a minimum it is a lot of fun to mess around with
ReplyDeleteJB- I will. I have TOS, but it's delayed and that sucks. I also run everything though VMW fusion on my AAPL, so it's a little tricky.
ReplyDeleteCan you email me Craig's contact info again?
OK, got to run. GL ladies...Hoot hoot!!
well i managed to buy some NLS at $1.49 this morning...only problem is i bought 2,000 shares.
ReplyDeleteI know this is just a small fall after a big run and that econ reports are still ok...but i still can't shake the feeling that we're heading much lower over time. i think the reason i'm thinking this is because governments all over the world are cutting back on spending and while this doesn't have an immediate impact on earnings/etc, it will over time as it feeds through our markets not only in terms of earnings but also in terms of sentiment and willingness to pay up for stocks.
ReplyDeleteits easy to forget that europes problems were caused by years of bad behavior and probably won't go away with the creation of eurobonds...the eurobond is probably the sole reason for germany sliding as much as it has and not bouncing back.
anyway, i'm 99% cash and still waiting for better prices.
A nice article on Market Cycles from 1900-Now (link was posted over at CC yday)...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/Articles/Trend_Following_Strategies/History_of_Stock_Market_Cycles.htm
FTWR - I guess there wasn't much to yesterday's excitement...
ReplyDeleteCongratulations on your MITK trade, Mark! This year TOF took on a huge position with REDF and won, you took on a huge position with MITK and won, so now it is my turn to strike rich with ECU, right? :) Hopefully the big funds will start buying next week, after the merger becomes official...
ReplyDeleteThose f*ing bonds, by the way -- they just don't go down! Rosenberg used to repeat many times the words of some seasoned trader that securities do not correct sideways after parabolic run-ups, they always go down. So what's up with bonds this time???
ReplyDeleteDavid, maybe operation torque.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/forget-twist-here-comes-operation-torque-presenting-morgan-stanleys-complete-moral-hazard-profi?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
Let me channel 2nd_ave here and say that profit taking today before the payrolls bodes well for tomorrow's stock performance. People selling today means fewer people left to sell tomorrow. :)
ReplyDeleteFrom Jeremy Grantham's article back about a month ago:
ReplyDelete"My colleague Ben Inker has written (as has Andrew Smithers in London)
that, other things being equal, corporate profi ts will rise when government debt has risen. And, boy, has it risen! A
more intuitive variant of this is that normally when you lay off everyone and cut your costs, your profi ts rise, if you
do it alone. But when you all do it together, everyone’s top line drops and you collectively cycle downwards. Here
though, for a while anyway, a great surge in government spending made up the difference on the top line, making for
GMO 8 Quarterly Letter Part 2: Danger – Children at Play, August 2011
the temporary best of all possible worlds for corporate profi ts, an outcome that I must admit I never saw as even a
faint possibility. It belongs, however, to the growing family of can-kicking maneuvers: when the government debt
ratio inevitably falls, or even as it rises at a decelerating rate, it will put offsetting pressure on margins. As individuals
continue to restrict their spending and as commodity prices stay high, other pressures on profi ts also intensify. Lower
margins are the great threat to market performance, even more so than the above long-term average P/Es. [Memo: the
very long-term normal trailing P/E is about 15. We use 16 in our calculations because we’re friendly. Those who use
much higher numbers are looking at the shorter time periods, when the Greenspan-Bernanke regime created a long
period of artifi cially above-normal stock prices. Be warned!]"
I decided to buy some more TLT puts, figuring that the recent zig-zags in TLT were designed to shake out early shorts before the real collapse in TLT. Just bought 6 contracts of October $110 puts for $4.50 each.
ReplyDeleteWhite House Office of Management and Budget cut their economic growth forecast appreciably today, apparently.
ReplyDeleteTemporary oil rig shutdowns in the gulf due to potential storm activity.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete