Looks to me like panic selling in DECK. I like these situations because the CEO stated that the company's sales were unaffected by warm weather, which is what people are fearful of, and he said that other lines of biz have been doing very well. He also said that their growth in Asia over the nenxt few years will be very strong.
I just added my final lot at $80.78. Now have 3000 shs...yeesh!
I'm always skeptical about Chinese revenue numbers and book value especially as they can value their assets at whatever they'd like.
As far as having no debt, a bank account w/ $62 million, and insider buying at these levels, I'd tend to believe it.
The problem w/ CLNT is its a book value and not a cash play. Book value $3.50. Stock price .25 lol.
These Chinese companies utterly boggle my mind. 1)How are they allowed to be listed, 2)How are they allowed to hire phony accountants (Sherb and co.), and 3) if there are any legitimate ones, we could see many 10 baggers. Crazy stuff.
SP500 will give a buy signal this month, barring a disaster, based on the 10 month ma. Research shows this is positive for market going forward. Here is the research link quick read.
A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation
2nd, if your are still interested in self-directed custodians, here's a list.
Self Directed IRA Custodians There are only a handful of Self Directed IRA custodians in the US which allow investing in real estate, real estate options, contracts, notes, mortgages and trust deeds. We have worked with many of these IRA custodians. Here is the list and IRA Company reviews. Self Directed IRA Companies Phone Office Location Comments IRA Resources, Inc 858 459-1212 La Jolla, CA Good service, cheap, fast, they are mostly an IRA custodian for private placements, but will consider trust deeds and real estate for some clients Sterling 800 955-3434 Waco, TX slow but cheap, always on hold for 15min before I reach a person Trust Administration Services Corp 800 455-9472 Carlsbad, CA Through First Regional Bank, I've had good service with them. First Regional Bank was closed by the FDIC on January 29, 2010, their SDIRA accounts are now managed by Sterling Trust. Equity Trust 440 323-5491 Elyria, OH Probably the cheapest if you do more than 10 transactions a year. Flat annual fee, no transaction fees, reportedly fast & good service Polycomp Admin Services 800 952 8800 Roseville, CA two CA offices, no personal experience. Pensco 800 969-4472 San Francisco, CA Big and reportedly fast and good service, but not cheap. Entrust Administration, Inc 800 392-9653 Offices nationwide Many Offices, good service, prices have gone up drastically in last few years Guidant Financial Group, LLC 888-IRA-XCEL Bellevue, WA Unique solution, very flexible, but cant justify the price without 500K funded, no personal experience. Lincoln Trust (previously Fiserv) 800 521-6974 Denver, CO One of the biggest, and reportedly slowest http://www.iraservices.com 650 593-2221 San Carlos, CA no personal experience
Here is a handy excel spreadsheet which attempts to compare pricing schedules of IRA custodians based on the size of your IRA and your trading criteria.
Interesting old post on PEIX below. Looking at the weekly and monthly charts together w/ the volume pattern, if this is truly going to be a 2012 story stock, tomorrow is a very, very pivotal day imo as it is trading at the bottom of the monthly range (monthly flag pattern) on a big pullback in weekly and monthly volume.
"When PEIX traded at a 250 Million dollar market cap it had
1. 3 times more debt than right now 2. 1/5 of 2012 projected revenue 3. 14 million more shares outstanding on float at 90 million 4. negative earnings 5. no insider buys
Now we trade at a 35 million dollar market cap ($90 mil now) with
1. 1 billion dollar revenue on the horizon (500% increase) 2. very small debt load 3. 76 million shares on the float instead of 90 million 4. positive earnings 5. steady insider buys
Fundamentals have changed and margins are getting fatter!!!!!! This should trade at a 750 million dollar market cap by 2013 750million divided by 76million shares is $9.87 per share"
2nd - By the way I really like the IRE call here...today was the 6th day of sideways trading in the stock in the 6ish level. I may join you tomorrow. I still have about 40% to invest so why not dump it into a money losing bank in Europe?!
What's the rationale behind the valuation on SOHU? Not sure if I'm reading this right but they have $21 a share in cash, no debt, and $4.60 EPS estimate for last year. So it's trading at 8.6 times last years earnings?
VALV- If those #'s are real, wow.
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like panic selling in DECK. I like these situations because the CEO stated that the company's sales were unaffected by warm weather, which is what people are fearful of, and he said that other lines of biz have been doing very well. He also said that their growth in Asia over the nenxt few years will be very strong.
ReplyDeleteI just added my final lot at $80.78. Now have 3000 shs...yeesh!
Mark, MDW equals languish, needs some sort of news. It's a waiting game or stay away. Positive overall, but what have you done for me lately?
ReplyDeleteT3D- Thanks. Kinda thought you'd say that. I'll still take a shot @ 1.90 if everything else is equal.
ReplyDeleteTOF- GL!! If I didn't hate those Fing boots so much....???
Thanks Mark. I personally love them on women and women love them on women.
ReplyDeleteMark-
ReplyDeleteI'm always skeptical about Chinese revenue numbers and book value especially as they can value their assets at whatever they'd like.
As far as having no debt, a bank account w/ $62 million, and insider buying at these levels, I'd tend to believe it.
The problem w/ CLNT is its a book value and not a cash play. Book value $3.50. Stock price .25 lol.
These Chinese companies utterly boggle my mind. 1)How are they allowed to be listed, 2)How are they allowed to hire phony accountants (Sherb and co.), and 3) if there are any legitimate ones, we could see many 10 baggers. Crazy stuff.
SP500 will give a buy signal this month, barring a disaster, based on the 10 month ma. Research shows this is positive for market going forward. Here is the research link quick read.
ReplyDeleteA Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461
I was referring to VALV the first part of the above comment. I should have stated "The problem with CLNT on the other hand...."
ReplyDelete2nd, if your are still interested in self-directed custodians, here's a list.
ReplyDeleteSelf Directed IRA Custodians
There are only a handful of Self Directed IRA custodians in the US which allow investing in real estate, real estate options, contracts, notes, mortgages and trust deeds. We have worked with many of these IRA custodians. Here is the list and IRA Company reviews.
Self Directed IRA Companies Phone Office Location Comments
IRA Resources, Inc
858 459-1212 La Jolla, CA Good service, cheap, fast, they are mostly an IRA custodian for private placements, but will consider trust deeds and real estate for some clients
Sterling
800 955-3434 Waco, TX slow but cheap, always on hold for 15min before I reach a person
Trust Administration Services Corp
800 455-9472 Carlsbad, CA Through First Regional Bank, I've had good service with them. First Regional Bank was closed by the FDIC on January 29, 2010, their SDIRA accounts are now managed by Sterling Trust.
Equity Trust
440 323-5491 Elyria, OH Probably the cheapest if you do more than 10 transactions a year. Flat annual fee, no transaction fees, reportedly fast & good service
Polycomp Admin Services
800 952 8800 Roseville, CA two CA offices, no personal experience.
Pensco
800 969-4472 San Francisco, CA Big and reportedly fast and good service, but not cheap.
Entrust Administration, Inc
800 392-9653 Offices nationwide Many Offices, good service, prices have gone up drastically in last few years
Guidant Financial Group, LLC 888-IRA-XCEL Bellevue, WA Unique solution, very flexible, but cant justify the price without 500K funded, no personal experience.
Lincoln Trust (previously Fiserv)
800 521-6974 Denver, CO One of the biggest, and reportedly slowest
http://www.iraservices.com
650 593-2221 San Carlos, CA no personal experience
Here is a handy excel spreadsheet which attempts to compare pricing schedules of IRA custodians based on the size of your IRA and your trading criteria.
RSH- No stores here anymore.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- what made you feel more bullish about the market now?
ReplyDeleteCSTR- Man, that thing can not catch a break.
ReplyDeletePBY - Taking it off here...
ReplyDeleteTOF -- why did you put so much money into DECK? Its stock is not down 80% over the last year showing signs of turn around after a long flat base...
ReplyDeleteMark - why is it dropping AH?
ReplyDeleteTOF- CSTR?...COO take a leave for family reasons. RSH?...Guidance WAY low.
ReplyDeleteInteresting old post on PEIX below. Looking at the weekly and monthly charts together w/ the volume pattern, if this is truly going to be a 2012 story stock, tomorrow is a very, very pivotal day imo as it is trading at the bottom of the monthly range (monthly flag pattern) on a big pullback in weekly and monthly volume.
ReplyDelete"When PEIX traded at a 250 Million dollar market cap it had
1. 3 times more debt than right now
2. 1/5 of 2012 projected revenue
3. 14 million more shares outstanding on float at 90 million
4. negative earnings
5. no insider buys
Now we trade at a 35 million dollar market cap ($90 mil now) with
1. 1 billion dollar revenue on the horizon (500% increase)
2. very small debt load
3. 76 million shares on the float instead of 90 million
4. positive earnings
5. steady insider buys
Fundamentals have changed and margins are getting fatter!!!!!!
This should trade at a 750 million dollar market cap by 2013
750million divided by 76million shares is $9.87 per share"
Jesse - I agree on the fundamentals but I'm at a loss for trying to find out how many shs they have.
ReplyDeleteFolks, take a look at the huge contango in VIX futures:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/DQBeta.aspx
I am buying VXX puts tomorrow!
2nd - By the way I really like the IRE call here...today was the 6th day of sideways trading in the stock in the 6ish level. I may join you tomorrow. I still have about 40% to invest so why not dump it into a money losing bank in Europe?!
ReplyDeleteJust placed a buy stop limit order for 5000 shares of PEIX at $1.10/$1.12.
ReplyDeleteare there any new movies available through netflix streaming?
ReplyDeleteDavid - Looks like you might be right about MITK...after hours bid is at $9.02 now. Wow.
ReplyDeleteOK, I'll admit it. If MITK doesn't break sharply to the upside here my heads going to explode.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the rationale behind the valuation on SOHU? Not sure if I'm reading this right but they have $21 a share in cash, no debt, and $4.60 EPS estimate for last year. So it's trading at 8.6 times last years earnings?
ReplyDeleteWTF
TOF- It's China baby!
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete