Saturday, September 21, 2013
09/21/13 'Prisoners'
How appropriate to have watched 'Prisoners' on a rain-drenched first day of Fall. We all headed to the movies following a rained-out game, and while Mom accompanied the big guy and his best friend to 'Sea of Monsters,' I headed for a story about real monsters. A very well-written/impeccably-acted film. I would describe it as a thinking man's 'Silence of the Lambs.' A wintry Pennsylvania landscape, brooding performances by Jake Gyllenhaal and Terence Howard, and an unhurried pace created a perfect two-and-a-half hours of suspense. The acting was so natural I didn't realize until the closing credits that it was Hugh Jackman and Maria Bello in leading roles as parents of one of the missing girls.
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I've seen the trailer for that and it looks great! We got both games in today.
ReplyDeleteTiming is everything. An early morning game or an afternoon game would have been OK. Ours was scheduled for 11 am, and that's when it really started coming down.
Delete'Prisoners' is the latest in a recent series of films that have drawn attention to child abduction. 'The Pledge,' 'Mystic River,' and 'The Changeling' all make the point that it's an almost ordinary every day occurrence, which is probably close to the truth. There's evil all around us, but continual awareness of it would drive us insane ('The Sixth Sense' or 'Unbreakable' come to mind). So to some extent we practice denial.
ReplyDeletethat movie does look phenomenal. and the ratings on IMDB match the looks. the creepy dude (Paul Dano) plays priest Eli from "There Will Be Blood". He's an excellent actor. He was also in "Little Miss Sunshine" and "Ruby Sparks", both of which I would highly recommend...both are very unique scripts.
ReplyDeleteSo you want to know why it's a good idea to have some physical gold in your sock drawer?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-03/emperors-of-banking-have-no-clothes.html
Isn't there some other way, everytime I see an article like this I think banks must've bottomed.
DeleteRandom thoughts:
ReplyDeleteOn Friday morning, I said that there were three things that this market had to do:
1. Follow Through
2. Follow Through
3. Follow Through
And, on Friday it did not do any of those three things.
The Ps have now given up nearly all of their Fed day rally. I ignore all news but I do know when a market rallies on good news but then gives up all of its rally it suggests that that news has been quickly digested. If fact, there are trading strategies based on such news reversals. You look to buy after bad news and sell after good news (write that down).
1700 is a good inflection point in the Ps–not a line in the sand, but a good reference point. If they can stay above it, then their breakout remains intact.
Speaking of breakouts, although the Nasdaq dipped on Friday, so far, its breakout remains intact. 3700 would be a good inflection point here.
As I preach, you have to take things one-day-at-a-time. Sometimes markets are prone to fits and starts. However, until the market does any of the aforementioned three things, I would remain a little cautious. Said alternatively, show me.
So what do we do? Friday was a day where it was good to have some leftover shorts hanging around. It helped to smooth out the bumps a bit. This is why I let the market take me out of positions and I don’t just cash out of everything just because the overall market does (or fails to do) something. With that said, honor your stops on any existing shorts. And, for that matter, honor your stops on any longs just in case. As far as new longs, I would only take new setups if they past the “really really” like them litmus test and/or if they are commodity related stocks that can trade contra to the indices. I have one of both that I’m looking to trade today. See today’s service for the symbols (I know, I am such a tease!). No matter what you do, as usual, wait for entries. As I preach, this can often keep you out of new trouble.
Futures are soft pre-market.
Okay CP, it's cannon day. Fire away! Not a chance of hitting a soul on this blog.
ReplyDeleteThis blog has been dead for several months now, maybe longer.
DeleteWe probably should be long PM's I guess, but I'm not in the mood to be burned a second time. Hopefully BAC falls back to $7 or lower, As always, TBTF banks will be in the winners circle.
Or, buy JO.....
DeleteCoffee IS at very low levels. If the USD tanks it will be on the island with pm's, oil and food.
DeleteURG - Looks like a slow fade back to $0.80 in progress.....
ReplyDeleteSRS - Is an "M" pattern bullish?
ReplyDeleteAre gold equities a value play in the current environment? Yes, with a time horizon of 1-3 years.
ReplyDeleteOne way to look at it is to examined annual returns. See this, page 2, and study the total return performance history.
http://www.gabelli.com/Gab_pdf/factsheets/8facts.pdf
Now the XAU and some selected equities:
"31 DEC 10" "21 SEP 13" % of loss Div
XAU 224.19 95.75 -57.29 0
GDX 60.88 25.76 -57.68 1.79
MUX 7.87 2.65 -66.32 0
AEM 76.70 26.82 -65.03 3.28
ANV 26.31 4.65 -82.32 0
ABX 52.60 18.61 -64.61 1
NEM 61.43 28.07 -54.31 3.56
Never lines up from excel!?
From studying annual returns like this, after multi year declines, sectors have a strong tendency to reverse as the balance has shifted too far. Said another reversion to mean.
Everyone has to draw their own conclusion, but IMO, this is a compelling opportunity and I have begun acting on it. The hard part for myself will be the ability to sit, got that Joe, sit.
Buy PM's and sit.... Yeah, I tried that once before while everyone seemed to be selling.
DeleteI seem to be reading an increasing number of stories about how we are even more subject to economic disruption with 30% larger TBTF banks. So if PM's hit a technical bottom then it seems prudent to entertain the notion.
DeleteI still have not sold most of what I bought at the previous lows. So far, so good.
CP, I hear many people sound just like you which makes it even more compelling to buy.
DeleteIt is the hard trade. It is the hard thing to do.
If you can find old AAII annual mutual fund books in 10 year increments and study annual returns (I threw most of mine away) but they tell the story of buying hard multi year sell-offs.
NUGT - I think this is the one I'd go for if I was going for one. Or perhaps SLW
DeleteAnd, does gold make any sense if Germany decides to absolve themselves from the euro? I dunno, but it should make the euro much less popular, I would think. And that would effectively hand Europeans a salary cut, which would tend to make them more competitive on a global basis.
DeleteSo those in debt get their due punishment and life goes on, perhaps.
Perhaps a cup of JO is for you.
ReplyDeleteSeasonals are coming into play.
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_kaffee.html
I know you're all sitting on the edge of your seats waiting for this post.
ReplyDelete(a) I cut my losses on GDX @ 25.43, as it began to slice through the 25.55 I predicted would be the low print for this cycle. Why didn't I sell >26 earlier in the day? I'm not as clairvoyant as I used to be.
(b) I closed RYGBX for a +0.84% one-day gain.
(c) Miners comprised 12% of the port, bonds 60%. Even Stephen.
I have a confession to make. The day after last Wednesday's rally in PMs/miners, I walked over to the Sis for a visit. 'Train wreck ahead' flashed briefly, but I chose to ignore it. After a +9% rally on 3x normal volume? No way, Jose. The sixth sense must be ----ed up on Tequila.
DeleteI should not have ignored it. Check out the red flags for yourselves. Actually, I didn't completely ignore my sixth sense; I gave it some space. However, jumping back in after a -75% retrace was not enough space. I should have targeted -100% plus, which is basically what I sensed. Another lesson. Anything can and will happen in the markets.
Gold and all metals are long-cycle investments and take a long time before you can get a reversion to the mean trade - look at the Gold and Silver Index from T3D's report for the 1990's. Even though it went down almost 50% in 1997/1998, it still took another substantial hit over the following 2 years, before really being worth buying in 2002.
ReplyDeleteThe big guys like BHP and RIO Tinto still have big supply coming on over the next few years because of investments they made in the book years - this will drive prices further down. What you want to hear is more news like ABX cutting capex and closing down marginal mines - that is what will drive a real supply-driven bottom in metals.
You can also look for a demand driven rally, but hard to see where real demand, not just trader demand comes from - any trader who buys a metal is just looking to sell it higher and is a source of future supply. I also have to believe you've still got a ton of people under water looking to get out. Maybe some of the base metals would be a better shot for demand growth, as the EM's continue their build-out.
I think we are getting closer to a bottom in metals and are closer to the low than the highs, but it could easily be 2 or even 5 years away. I'd be looking elsewhere until fundamentals get better for miners.
MUX - Ouch, not such a good day. Perhaps PM longs are hedging with short miners again?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Somebody accumulating at $1.82?
ReplyDeleteMaybe a bit. Certainly is a good price . I am well underwater from that. Not trading.
Deletei had a busy day today...and i made a few trades as well. closed out of 1/2 my position in OSTK the past 2 days at $29 down to $28.3. I've actually been day trading this for the past week. I'm still holding on to MY and NLS. I took fairly big positions in UGAZ and TZA today (about 25% of the port in total) at $17.23 and $22.97, respectively. I don't like how the market is trading.
ReplyDeleteNot really fully committed one way or the other. i have mainly been daytrading actually with much more success than anything im trying to hold for longer periods which is weird for me because i am usually horrible at daytrading compared to longer term trades. so i'm sticking with the day trades for 1/2 of my port for now. its a weird time for the market. there's not enough conviction on the short or the long side in my opinion. everyone knows we're fully valued so lots of people are skeptical, but at the same time we're not crazy overvalued so longs are staying in it. i personally am not finding a ton of stuff that seems like a can't miss.
Deleteany of you guys use this:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/freecharts/sctr.html?&V=E&I=N
great way of showing which sector(s) are doing well. anything clean energy is doing well.
BSBR/BSAC - Still headed higher today. Something must've happened to reverse the mindset.
ReplyDeleteBSBR (Banco Santander Brasil) still moving up nicely. I think people are starting to realize that the BRIC's aren't going away and that a lot of these socks got way too cheap
DeleteYou nailed that one bro and I cashed in for pennies. Great work!
DeleteSKUL- Weren't we looking at this in the 12's?
ReplyDeleteWhoa chart looks good
DeleteDoubled down on UGAZ at $16.99.
ReplyDeleteAlso sold the tza pre market for small loss
ReplyDeleteKind of went overboard on ugaz day trade. Bot more at 16.87. Stop is below recent lows
ReplyDeleteJust a chart play?
DeleteOversold bounce day trade.
DeleteWhen are you moving?
DeleteI actually sold at 16.75
DeleteAlready moved man. In MA as of 2 days ago.
DeleteDude, I hope you enjoy your new home. How do you like trading ET time?
DeleteT3 - still getting adjusted to it. I think I will like it because I will have time to chill out with my son and not have to worry about the market.
DeleteCCL (Carnival Cruise) getting hit today and some weak results and now back in the $34's. Would probably buy back if it got down into the $33 area.
ReplyDeleteI unfortunately sold a little ostk at 28.4 to buy yrcw at 16.7. Just sold the yrcw at 17.1. Hopped back into mbi at 11.1
ReplyDeleteWow glad I got out of tza and ugaz with small losses. Jeez
ReplyDeleteHopped back in tza at 22.44 and 22.55
ReplyDeleteGlad to here you made it there safe TOF. Email me a link to where your living.
ReplyDeleteYeah I'll email you the address. We're still unsettled and waiting for everything to arrive at our new place.
DeleteLooks like the open will be important, set the tone?
ReplyDeleteSGEN - Crammer pumped this one a couple weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteTKMR - Taking off again.
ReplyDeleteTook a fairly large position in TZA today at $22.52 avg. Really not liking the way the market has been trading for a while...and I spent a little time over the weekend just thinking through the trading over the past few months and last week and it just seems like there's at least a decent chance we have seen the highs for a while. I think there's a chance last week was a blowoff top but it's been one fakeout after another for a while now so I don't know how much conviction I have with this call. I'm going to let the trade play out a little bit and won't let the position run against me too much if it does. The only long position I have now is MY.
ReplyDeletePretty much see it the same way technically. I just feel there is a little more underlying strength to the economy than the data might suggest. Either way it's really a tough spot for swing traders. Hard not to get myopic so close to the bark.
Deletei'm finding better odds day trading stuff right now and sticking with only stuff that's working. don't have a ton of conviction either way right now.
DeleteI'm actually finding several charts that look good but i was in the middle of moving and was stuck in a few positions not moving which was annoying. was looking at EGLE KNDI HZNP MY MCP all of which have kicked ass but only had one of them.
DeleteSBS - Water treatment, Brazil
ReplyDeleteCBD - Grocery chain, Brazil
DeleteVAR - 3-Dimensional breast tomography
ReplyDeletePACB news. Kinda like NSPH's.
ReplyDeleteSounds more encouraging than NSPH's news
DeleteMAKO - Taking it all off, no reason to hold this one anymore
ReplyDeleteSVM - Found some contractors were mixing dirt with ore, pps has jumped $1 since, and ore yield has improved remarkably.
ReplyDeleteSYK - I was looking this one over yesterday, the hospital I was in had their products all over the place.
ReplyDeleteI asked the nurse which in her opinion was the latest and greatest device/technology the hospital had, she told me to look up the DaVinchi robot they're using to perform brain surgery.
DeleteISRG - OMG, and this thing is beat to hell, what a coincidence!
DeleteANGO - It wasn't long ago I was researching the nanoknife surgical instrument
ReplyDeleteVAR - Is this a common knockout prior to an upside breakout?
ReplyDeleteI sold TZA at $22.75 I swear. Actually debating re-entering it now.
ReplyDeleteActually best reentry is probably around the prior highs for the S&P if it can get there. the Small caps are the clear leaders still.
DeleteFigures when you sell something is shots up out of its range...held OSTK for past month and it was really weak. Sold it the last 2 days between $28.4ish and $29.1. Effin A.
ReplyDeleteCan't frickin' win!......
DeleteJust went long TZA at 22.24 and 22.26
ReplyDeleteadded more at 22.42
DeleteWow, that must be one hell of a deal for PACB.
ReplyDeletewow what an awesome deal for them.
DeleteBERY - Fk'n-A-hole Crammer pumped one of my plastic plays...... Wonder if his buddies are dumping now?
ReplyDeleteCCK is the other one. SOAB!
BERY - Lowered guidance last week and insiders sold about all their position.
DeleteCCK - Then this one cut guidance too.
So WTF, Crammer must be FOS on this?
What's FOS stand for?
DeleteFull Of S**T!!!!
DeleteSold TZA at $22.63.
ReplyDeleteJCP would be a Landry play, right?
ReplyDeleteAs a short in March 2012. Draw your arrow.
DeleteMy has been on a helluva run which means I should be selling but if I sell it will go nuts. Ahhh!
ReplyDeleteI tried MBI again at 11.155. Avg
TTM - Damn if that thing didn't rip higher, straight back to the upper trend line.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, has something really changed or just another head fake mirage......?????
lots of weakness lately. i wouldn't be surprised if we have a big move up in the next couple of days, stall at prior highs then drop like a rock.
ReplyDeleteI took off 40% of MY position at $2.17. Will look to add back at $2 if it comes for a move to $3ish.
DeleteDATE chart looks phenomenal.
ReplyDeletejeez CTCT has been a horse.
ReplyDeleteContinuing with the potential for a last burst move higher, if this is what the market wants to do:
ReplyDeletethis would probably involve a big short covering rally that could set new highs marginally. however, it would retreat immediately after that...maybe within a day or two. i'm ready for it and am only going with small long positions right now in sectors that are working. i think the odds of this setup happening are fairly high. on the one hand, i think the market is very tired, but on the other hand lots of people are looking for continued weakness. this scenario sets up this potential for a sharp short covering rally that frustrates the sh*t out of skeptics, at which point their capitulation removes that last burst of buying needed to propel the market higher.
Closed right at support, more indecision........
ReplyDeletePassing along two recent Deron picks: ONVO and AMBA.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/sailing/2013/09/25/oracle-team-usa-beats-new-zealand-americas-cup/2871027/
ReplyDeleteOne of the first news stories I read after relocating to the Bay Area in 1990 was a 'portrait' of Larry Ellison facing the imminent demise of his company. Oracle faced bankruptcy due to a series of business missteps, and competitor Sybase took full advantage of the situation. The only detail I remember was that Ellison had reportedly withdrawn to the Japanese garden of his estate to work things out. The rest is history.
The guy's a winner, and he knows all about coming back after taking a beating.
At least Ted Turner wasn't mentioned, so the article was pretty decent.
DeleteThat's funny!
DeleteWMT - So today's bear attack controversy surrounded WMT.....
ReplyDeleteCP- FOS, then yes. He is.
ReplyDelete1702 could lead to 1710
ReplyDeleteAfrican Minerals (AMLZF.PK) enters into a binding memorandum of understanding with Tianjin Materials and Equipment, China's largest iron trader, where Tewoo will pay $990M to acquire a 16.5% interest in African Minerals' flagship Tonkolili iron ore project.
ReplyDeleteChina, which makes 43% of the world’s steel, relies on imported ore for more than 60% of its steelmaking needs.
Chinese state-owned metal giants are said to be circling Rio Tinto’s (RIO) $4B Canadian iron ore operations as well as Glencore’s (GLCNF.PK) Las Bambas copper asset in Peru.
I suspect China is all over Mongolia, and so far they have the run of the place b/c China is building real homes for the people so they can move out of their tents.
DeleteBERY - Paper or plastic?
ReplyDelete9/26/2013 11:53 AM Industry trade source reported that McDonald's intends to replace its current use of EPS hot beverage cups with paper cups. The article discusses various factors driving the adoption of paper cups. This news may take one EPS cup user out of the market, at least for now.
I was thinking about this type of thing when you posted BERY the other day.
DeleteS&P 500 below 1700. Overbought pullback exposes gaps at 1692-1688 and 1674-1672. Hourly Ichimoku cloud resistance: 1706-1716. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Comp at risk to form bearish weekly engulfing candlestick patterns. Watch Friday's close. Focus charts: 90-day breakouts: AMAT, BX, CLR, VLCCF, LRCX, PH and TMUS. 90-day breakdowns: BAX and PIR.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ @ 14.58...
ReplyDeleteI was reluctant to sell @ 14.9x, and ended up letting it go @ 14.70...
DeleteOff my game, dudes.
DeleteREALLY off my game...
DeleteBSBR - Reminds me of a bull flag formation.
ReplyDeleteTD Summary of the large cap Gold Miners from the Denver Gold Show:
ReplyDeleteWhile subdued, the overall tone at the Denver Gold Show was as not as bad as
we expected it would be – there seems to be a general acceptance (by producers,
investors and analysts) that the industry must change and adapt to a lower gold price
environment and that that process is now getting underway in earnest. All of the
producers talked at length about cost reductions – with a particular focus on G&A and
exploration. As well, growth capex is being reduced, if not eliminated. A number of
management teams we talked to drew parallels to the late 1990’s – today’s $1200-
1300/oz gold price is the equivalent to the $250/oz gold price of 1999/2000. In our
view, the industry will adjust because it has to.
Asset closures and divestitures were talking points for many of the larger
producers – and that process is underway with the recent sale of Midas by Newmont
following on the heels of Barrick’s sale of three high cost Australian mines last
month. While not widespread, there was some talk of the larger miners increasing the
drift towards adding more copper to their production profiles.
We expect that the next six months will send a clear message to investors that the
gold industry is restructuring – with year-end results and 2014 guidance we expect
to see lower production guidance, mine closures, lower reserves, reduced costs, lower
exploration budgets and reduced head-office head counts. By February/March 2014,
investors should have a pretty good idea what the “new” gold industry is going to look
like going forward.
Some key themes we took away from the conference include:
1. Focus on cost control – where possible layers of management are
being eliminated and G&A costs reduced. Exploration spending will
also shrink sharply.
2. Free cash flow and margin expansion should drive mine plans –
high cost mines (i.e., AISC >$1000/oz) will have to restructure or
risk closure.
3. The value versus volume strategy is now wide spread – Newmont,
Barrick and Kinross all have their own versions and names for the
drive to focus on high margin ounces, rather than ounces for ounces
sake.
4. M&A is not high on the agenda for the large caps – JVs may be a
better way to go. Rather than trying to acquire and/or build large
assets individually, the larger companies may increasingly look to
joint ventures as a way to spread financing/political/operational risk.
5. More commodity diversification – copper is the favourite nonprecious metal commodity but given recent experience we expect
that the move towards more diversification will be a slow drift rather
than a quick plunge.
JCP/PIR - Beat up enuff to buy?
ReplyDeleteKnife catchers were at work on JCP
Delete4. M&A is not high on the agenda for the large caps – JVs may be a
ReplyDeletebetter way to go. Rather than trying to acquire and/or build large
assets individually, the larger companies may increasingly look to
joint ventures as a way to spread financing/political/operational risk.
I was thinking about this the other day with the AMAT news. I think we will see a lot of joint ventures coming up as Co. try to leverage their structure without actually buying other co's.
I agree, but especially in mining.A lot of juniors have good mines, but no ability to finance their development. So makes sense the seniors will take advantage of the current situation as much as possible.
DeleteCYD - The only Mongolia mining play I can think of.
DeleteLooks like IH&S with $24 target is complete.
DeleteHoof Hearted?
ReplyDeleteHere we go again with the US government fighting about the debt - market taking a hit, but I find it hard to believe anyone would actually let something actually destructive happen to the economy.
ReplyDeleteI see self-destruction all about me. Nobody trusts that politicians wont sell us down the road for their own gain.
DeleteWouldn't the market taking a hit disprove that notion?
DeleteMost of the noise is really a campaign fund raising ploy, but it does have consequences.
BTW, that means I agree with CP. I don't think some of these idiots give a $hit. They don't work for us.
DeleteAnd, it's nice to see that distrust, BTW, seemed like for decades the general public placed too much trust in politicians, so this is healthy and I hope it is nowhere near an end, it needs to get uglier before real change can take place.
Delete2nd - that sucks man. i had to run some errands today and missed the entry but I was ready to buy as well.
ReplyDeleteI did buy MBI at $11.2 and $11.08. I also bought back into CECO at $2.73. Still holding the rest of MY.
I heard an interesting thing on Bloomberg radio in the brief time I was listening this morning that was very interesting. They said the fed might be doing whatever is necessary to get employment going much in the same way they did whatever was necessary to lower interest rates in the early 80's and that the market would not fall apart at all in this scenario. I think that's an interesting take that I haven't heard of before...the parallel in some ways to the 70s/80's
Got stopped out of MBI at $10.9. Risk-reward setup was good for a potential double bottom but it didn't work out.
DeleteURC/FLR/BWC/CCJ/DNN - Trying to watch these all..... The theme is inherently safe miniature nuclear reactors similar to those used in Navy ships..
ReplyDeleteURA - Also in the list, of course.
DeleteO boy, yeah, TEL and AMAT...... What a story, wonder if it's causing confusion? Now INTC has one less whipping boy to brow beat against the others. I bet TEL is glad to be out from under that crusher, and now AMAT has a huge bargaining chip.
ReplyDelete(a) GDX currently -2.5%.
ReplyDelete(b) The long bond (TLT) -0.5%.
My take? I sense a short squeeze in miners, and a bull trap in bonds. How do I know? I don’t.
Long GDX @ 24.85. Long RYPMX at the close.
I think you could be right on that. Although I don't really follow the miners etc. But the comments regarding the Fed doing whatever it possibly takes jives with a big move up in those.
Deletewow nice end of day run in CECO. Holding that and MY now. Added to MY at $2.13 and $2.07/8 today.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteVentilation blues, you asked yesterday, "In the new Cara... [#121591]
By: johnuk (461 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
September 26, 2013 at 7:12 am
Ventilation blues, you asked yesterday,
“In the new Cara website and set up, is this still the only forum? “
As far as I know this is the only forum at present,the fall off in the number of commenters is a mystery to me.
After being monkey hammered for two years what's left to... [#121600]
By: c3wands (66 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
September 26, 2013 at 1:07 pm
After being monkey hammered for two years what’s left to say?
Black chip + odds it gets deleted.
DeleteOn the other hand, why delete 8% of the comments.
DeleteNow that my research into each of your personalities has drawn to a close, I ask: Would this drive you nutz, as well?
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/09/19/listening-to-stories-from-nazis/
pull up the weekly chart of TZOO. All I see since the bottom 10 months ago is higher lows and higher highs. Their hotel booking platform is coming to fruition some time over the next 6 months or so. I've mentioned this before but this company has enormous potential if they can just tie up all of the loose ends in terms of traffic on their site. They have so many opportunities to convert traffic into sales that they're wasting, from not having a platform that allows people to book hotels on their site to directing traffic off their site to their vendors' sites (as opposed to keeping people on their site and having them book deals on their site). There are a host of other issues but needless to say the company has a lot of opportunities to grow just by increasing their conversion rate.
ReplyDeleteAnother stock I've mentioned before is ENZ. This chart on a longer time frame (i.e., 6 years or so) looks really good. The buying pressure on the weekly, as measured by the RSI_EMA in ThinkorSwim, suggests that the stock is ready to move up in a big way. They have major litigation pending that has already been ruled in their favor which will entitle them to $70 Million (mkt cap is $100 Million) and which will open the door to them receiving settlements from other companies infringing on their patents. $5 looks doable.
ReplyDeleteThis one is interesting. I'll see what I can find this weekend.
DeleteCY - Well, is the downside priced in?
ReplyDeleteMaybe wait till 8.70? Kinda seems like a serial disappointer though no?
DeleteYeah, maybe Kindal isn't the happenins. Trying to remember all the semi names is tough when you go to try looking at charts.
DeleteJCP/GS...By the way, how the fuck does that all work out? Seriously.
ReplyDeleteI don't even know what ur talkin' about really, GS upgraded I think, which prolly means we should stay away till GS is done selling, or maybe GS is throwing us a bone here, hard to say but don't forget BBY and others.
Delete" J.C. Penney hired Goldman Sachs to manage a highly dilutive stock offering of 84 million shares."
DeleteSo, JCP hired GS, our bff. If that's not boning your shareholders then nothing is. Especially considering they already blew over $2B of shareholder equity "remodeling" a few stores and lining the pockets of the already super rich insiders club.
I say FJCP for what they've done, but might be able to jump on a rally and scalp. Doesn't sound like that's going to be tomorrow, though.
SHLD - Burned a mere $200M the past 90 days
DeleteKMR - Have you been following the drama?
"On the other hand, why delete 8% of the comments."
ReplyDeleteBut that site gets over a billion hits an hour!
I like this guy:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-global-consulting-giant-mckinsey-evil-2013-09-25
UGR - Ur-Energy Lost Creek production rate exceeding expectations Briefing.com(Wed, Sep 25)
ReplyDeleteFrom Wednesday's CC Blog - of course, blame the interventionists, not the fact that you've been dead wrong on gold for 2 years now. Any time I read a site talking about "interventionists", its the last time I read it.
ReplyDeleteAfter we changed the format of the website, we discovered... [#121587]
By: Bill Cara (4083 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
September 26, 2013 at 3:00 am
After we changed the format of the website, we discovered many problems with the set-up. Comments dropped off quite a bit. Also, the market interventionists have forced many traders out of the market. Finally, I decided to pursue a different direction personally until new software could grease the wheels for my return, but alas there have been numerous delays and I’m still waiting for greater automation in the publishing system. But we are still working on it and I shall return this year.
Never say never, I guess. One thing about BC is he's great at avoidance.
DeleteAfter confidently posting opinions that singlehandedly wiped out thousands of portfolios, that's kind of not good enough.
DeleteTKMR - You guys gonna let this one keep running?
ReplyDeleteBBY turned it around?
ReplyDeleteBSBR up over 6% this morning to almost $7.00 on no news - strange, but I'll take it.
ReplyDeleteHave a bid in to buy CCL (carnival Cruises) this morning, but missed the first sell-off. Hopefully get a small pullback this morning. I had bought a few months ago in the $33's and got lucky selling out due to frustration just before their bad earnings. But at $33, this is all priced in and they are a well run company (this past couple of years notwithstanding) and the stock is right at the bottom of the channel it has been in since the fall of 2011, so a probable bounce spot.
Got half a position at $32.93. Will buy the second half if the pullback continues as the low for the last couple of years is around $29.50, so we could get down to that range too.
DeleteFreekin' great pick! :)
DeleteJBL - Looks like this one was overpriced, eh?
ReplyDeleteStun guns and vicious beatings - Sounds like normal day when attempting to invest.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - looks like a special dividend which should work out to around $0.60 per share as their Spanish parent needs the bash and BSBR is overcapitalized and can afford the big dividend.
ReplyDeleteMakes the stock a little more risky as their overcapitalization will decrease, but still will be in good shape, so not really a big worry.
I was just sorting through that. That's HUGE!
DeleteInteresting, so Santander needs to move cash into Spain so they award themselves a dividend and any shareholders get to go along for the ride.
DeleteWhat's the ex-date for that, today or next week? I'll look, out of curiosity,
CCL - Buy -> Neut
ReplyDeleteTypical, downgrade after the price has dropped and bad news is priced in and now at a 52-week low.
DeleteValue add...
Yep, a lobotomized monkey could do better work for much less.
DeleteJCP - I dunno guys.....
ReplyDeleteBTU - Perhaps we should buy coal, considering the greenie countries Japan and Germany are now burning more than they have in recent memory?
ReplyDeleteOr, how 'bout FSLR?
PBW is kicking butt......
DeleteWLL - You guys still don't like this one? Wondering if MOG knows this company???
ReplyDeleteREDF - This puppy ever gonna run? The chart almost looks like it's ready.
ReplyDeleteVAR - 3D mammography - It's "the tits" guys, I'm pretty sure!
ReplyDeleteURG - Okay, so I think this one can make into mid $1.3x's, so gonna hang onto it a bit longer.
ReplyDeleteCCL - This one needs to take a turn to the downside though, IMO, so it can form a reverse bear flag. Right now it's a bear flag.
ReplyDeleteDownside is probably limited though, I've noticed BB doesn't often get that part wrong.
Robot flipped short at 1689......
ReplyDeleteJCP- Biggest volume day ever already.
ReplyDeleteS2 is 8.68.
Delete8.64
Delete"JCP
Deleteannounced plans to issue equity up to 96.6mn shares. We think this would eliminate near-term liquidity concerns. The offering would dilute shareholders by 30%. We are lowering our price objective to $11 to reflect the dilution. The equity issuance boosts liquidity. JCP expected to end 2013 with $1.5bn of liquidity; the offering lifts that to $2.4bn."
Biggest volume day? 256m shares is >the number of shares outstanding.
DeletePrepare for the Muffin Monster!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gi1V7gXyVeo
Long SPXL into the close for a trade. $48.56
ReplyDeleteclosed at 48.69
Deletehuge trade, i know. but i did put a lot of money into it so take that.
DeleteDPZ tonight!
DeleteDamn, that sounds like my kind of trade/time frame.
Deleteawesome call on BSBR. a time when the chart didn't prove to be omniscient.
ReplyDeleteI just got lucky. I like buying stocks at multi-year lows with good valuations as it provides upside and helps limit the downside, but when they (hopefully!) move up is just a guess.
DeleteSame old same old. Gold/silver prices in fact get squeezed at the open, yet miners are treading water. Offed most of the GDX around 25.2x. The only decent trade was the partial position I let go this morning around 25.6x. Sure, I thought about taking it all off at the open, but I was lulled into thinking spot prices would lead the miners. I'll be lucky not to lose money on the RYPMX position (which will be taken off at the close).
ReplyDeleteAs expected, RYPMX closed down -0.11%. Gains on GDX prevailed for a +0.2% gain for the day.
DeleteTotal for the week (including a line drive by 'Bonds') = +0.3%. Against the backdrop of a -1.1% weekly drop for the S&P 500, it's reason enough to high-five!
It is!
DeleteMolybdenum and Uranium:
ReplyDelete"Uranium: average forecast at $47.5/lb in 2014
We reduce our 2013-15 uranium spot and long term (LT) contract price forecasts
on expectations of lower demand as Japanese nuclear reactor restarts are set to be
delayed. As a result, our previously expected uranium supply-demand balance has
switched from a ~14mn lbs deficit at the end of 2014 to a 7mn lbs surplus. Looking
at moly, we anticipate a market surplus due to the earlier than anticipated start-up
of KGHM’s Sierra Gorda project in Chile. Hence, we have lowered our 2013-15
moly price estimates 8.7%, 15.2% and 15.2%, respectively, to $10.45, $11.13, and
$11.13 per lbs."
wtf. JCP @ 8.96.
ReplyDeleteDon't worry. I'm not going to spend the weekend reading up on JCP/posting reasons to buy. I think it's a POS myself, and the next time I click on the symbol will be premarket Monday morning.
DeleteRemember, I've never met a POS I didn't like!
Deletefwiw, I'll pass along the latest from the sixth sense (edited for language). GDX is headed down, and will take out the June lows. There will be cries of agony. Until then, I wouldn't touch the miners with a ten-foot pole.
ReplyDeleteTGIBF!
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteThie guy who wrote this knows what he's saying
ReplyDelete9/24/13:
"$JPM It is difficult to be short the stocks of banks that make very foolish decisions yet get bailed out by the Fed over and over again"