Saturday, September 28, 2013
09/28/13 Turning On A Dime
Back when I was in business school (almost a generation ago!) I considered a career as a financial analyst. There are all kinds of academic approaches to forecasting market direction and stock prices, and I took them all seriously. Group projects were in vogue in the Eighties, and each class was comprised of competing teams. I participated in one team that included a guy who had been a floor trader. We argued all the time- I from the academic 'pulpit,' and he from real life experience. I'm sure the guy is now worth a few hundred million dollars.
Changing one's opinion on a dime. That's a critical trading 'skill.' When I sit back with eyes closed and attempt to 'channel' crowd sentiment, I often come away with strong opinions (there are no lukewarm crowds). Here's one I came away with last night:
Miners are going down, bro. They will take out the June lows. Until they do, I wouldn't touch the miners with a ten-foot pole.
I 'believe' the above, and will trade accordingly. However, I'm completely open to reversing that opinion Sunday afternoon (when markets open in Asia) or Monday morning. There's no way a financial analyst can be 'right' in the short term, because it's sentiment that determines short term price movements. (Whether or not they're usually 'right' in the long term is also debatable.)
My market opinions are necessarily 'strong,' and the language of strong opinions requires confident proclamations of market direction. But they're also necessarily fleeting (fleet-footed, even!). So to have confidently proclaimed that a short squeeze was imminent on Friday, then confidently predict the miners will take out their June lows today, and further to proclaim they may have already seen the year's lows on Sunday is not an exercise in contradiction. It just means I'm doing my best to understand crowd behavior.
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I should clarify that the opinions expressed above were/are contrarian opinions. Were I to trade miners at this point, it would be to bet they in fact retest the June lows. Fading the crowd isn't as simple as doing the opposite of what you think they'll do. Crowds are complex, fast-moving (in some cases, sophisticated) entities. Nuances in their emotional response to market conditions can easily negate what 'I think,' and what 'I think' can easily be wrong in the first place.
ReplyDeleteI'm thoroughly confused! :)
ReplyDelete9/24/13:
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/9.24_JPM.jpg
And, note the volume that came in, wonder who was doing that?
Delete2nd - I almost went long DUST on Friday only because the chart reminded me so much of the chart of FAZ in 2008/9
ReplyDeleteFAZ is calling me now, I barely recall my name from 2008, seems like ages ago.
DeleteAll sorts of 'excuses' are trotted out by veteran traders. So what? The bottom line is 'what's my number?' If it's good, then you've succeeded. If it's bad, then you've been wrong. That's one thing I like about this game. It really doesn't matter how you 'explain' the gain or loss- it's only whether you have a gain or a loss.
DeleteThe only 'advice' that works is brutal honesty. 'Intimidation' doesn't work. Censorship doesn't work. We've all experienced both for having the common sense to point out the obvious. The price of 'belonging' to a broken blog? Hey, I can't think of anything in life worth taking a -30%+ haircut for! Jonestown is not my kind of place.
DeleteCP is right. Names like FAZ will resurface soon enough. This market's gone straight up for over 4 years. Take a look around. Do you really think we've returned to 2007?
DeleteDUST is probably the 'right' trade right now. Everyone I read is convinced the lows were hit in June. Instead, new levels of pain are likely ahead for mining investors. The entire decline in the sector has been insidious, like a cancer. The cancer has been in remission for three months, and will return with a vengeance. Traditional trading techniques haven't worked well lately (red flag). The market has found new ways to inflict damage on portfolios, and no one (however sophisticated) is exempt.
DeleteFirst, I agree with BB there are better sectors to go long than miners here, but miners are trashed so opportunity exists just depends on time horizon, position size and amount of possible pain one is willing to endure. David Dreman, a big value player once said you can really feel stupid buying on the way down as the bottom seems at times to know no end.
DeleteGDX Jun lows are 11% away and slightly undercut its trend line off those lows for 5 days, so needs to hold here if not probably lower. Is the bottom in? no idea but odds say were are within -20% of bottom. It is quite possible miners do not bottom until tax loss season.
Anyway, risky sector, with respect to annual return patterns would feel more comfortable if it was a general index.
FWIW
No pain, no gain. We hear that all the time. Research is starting to question the necessity of pain when working out, and no doubt research will one day question whether enduring pain is necessary for consistent gains when trading. -20% is not the kind of pain I'm able to tolerate. Hussman likes to point out that jumping in after a -40% decline, only to watch prices decline another -50%, can be just as devastating as taking a -70% haircut. Let's face it> if we can avoid even a -0.1% hit, we will.
DeleteYeah sure, everybody THINKS miners have bottomed! (insert evil laugh here)........ I say BS, that's what they want us to believe!
Delete"It is quite possible miners do not bottom until tax loss season."
DeleteYep, I'm wondering about that as well.
ESP - How about this chart?
ReplyDeleteUGA - This one looks good to go, or close to it.
ReplyDeletecc update
ReplyDeleteHey Grym, You've been here at least as long as i have, and... [#121625]
By: proudPapa (451 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
September 27, 2013 at 4:14 pm
Hey Grym,
You’ve been here at least as long as i have, and I agree with your views. Frustrating to watch this circus with the players getting away with what they do.
As for my ‘misled’ comment, I agree that everyone is responsible for their own decisions. But for many, they probably sleep better at night blaming someone else, like a self defence mechanism.
In regards to that time, last winter, it seemed unusual for Bill to be pounding the table on precious metals, not because fundamentals didn’t support it, it was just kind of out of character for him. He usually spoke more cautiously regarding market predictions.
What strikes me is that after his prediction fell through, he kind of almost disappeared on us. Maybe the couple stories of despair from readers hit him hard, which I can well understand. I suspect there would be more activity in the comments if he stuck around and acknowledged the forecast miss, and kept updating his analysis. Just a theory…
and
ReplyDeleteHere it is. Thanks proudPapa! See you around :) Actually... [#121629]
By: Bill Cara (4088 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
September 27, 2013 at 7:42 pm
Here it is.
Thanks proudPapa! See you around :)
Actually, I have explained a few times why I have pulled back from the blog. I decided that working 12 hours a weekend to write a free 150-page report is not something I want to do again — at least not until korvus is able to automate the production system so I can do it in 3 hours. But you are correct in that lots of people feel misled — people like Ned Goodman, Eric Sprott, Rob McEwen, and many others who are now down hundreds of millions each, mostly due to a corrupt insider trading super-star called the Fed.
But it is what it is and I’ll be back.
Did you notice that I put on a 5th Conference this month? Cost me $20,000. But I told the attendees what mistakes I made. I’m not hiding, if that’s your inference.
As to the former 300-count daily comments here, I think I recall there were half of them saying things like, “ABCD — in at $3.00″, and I asked them to stop. Then we had flamers who antagonized some of the participants here, and I asked them to stop and when they refused, I banned them. Oh there was also one “regular” whose language and comments I would not tolerate in my house, and neither would you, and he was banned after oh maybe six warnings. Finally, too many people here wanted only to discuss precious metals — not the Cara 100 — and it’s been a particularly bad cycle for them.
Add it up, and that’s largely what has happened here.
Do I miss “the old times”, not really. I understand what’s happened and would like to see a different result, but that’s life. As for my life, and Pat’s, I happen to be quite enjoying it. Soon, I’ll return and that may be when precious metals are higher or, possibly, getting whacked again. The point is, the PM cycle had zero to do with my being here or not being here. Thank you.
(a) I don't blame the Fed for my losses.
Delete(b) Why limit explanations of mistakes to conference attendees? What about the other 5 million readers?
(c) I enjoyed the real time posts of entries/exits. If you're doing it in real time, there's no time to post a well thought-out rationale for the trade. Most of us followed up with more detailed evening debriefs/analyses.
(d) Flamers? The only consistent pattern I observed was the banning of dissenting points of view.
As they say, perception is everything.
PM's went parabolic and that was the time to sell, right?
DeleteI'm still watching them but I'm looking for other ways, uptrends......
Here we go> Republicans vote themselves (and the entire Federal government) an extended vacation. Yes, it's all about them.
ReplyDeleteToo many people blindly follow Cara, etc. and think they have it all figured out. Reality is most of these guys take outsized positions (either in money or in just talking) on a particular theme and then, when it comes in, ride it till it is done and make a fortune. And all their followers take big losses.
ReplyDeleteRemember all those dot com analysts like Mary Meeker and Henry Blodget - they were the Cara's and Sprott's of the internet era.
Anyone who is a perma-anything cannot be trusted to help you see the end of a trend and help you find the next one. That's not how they get rich. They are good to read when a trend is in place - so reading Cara for gold ideas was good when the gold bull was on, just like reading Blodget was good for internet ideas in the internet boom. But you either need to follow someone with broader approaches, or, even better, build your own approach that works for you and you can be confident in.
Yep, that's true. I bet he's still talking up PM's.....
DeleteIt also amazes me how his readers overlook clear conflicts of interest. I haven't been following closely, but isn't he now a licensed bullion dealer, and involved with the boards of several junior miners?
DeleteSeems like he was talking his book, considering insiders were selling the top and he's on the horn with insiders constantly..
DeleteCan't trust him, apparently, and that explains why his words seem subjectively selected. I don't know what the final outcome was, but Deron seemed like he was sincere.
Gov Shutdown - What do you guys think, will it happen and will the market rally from the initial sell off?
ReplyDeleteNews to fade and then more news to fade.
DeleteDon't we need to know which way to move the stick, that depends on where the horizon is? I'm trying to make a plan over here.
DeleteHard to know. The last government showdown resulted in a pullback during talks, which was a very good buying opportunity. Seems like people aren't taking it as seriously this time, so may we get a different reaction both before and after.
DeleteRight, I've got the impression this should all be priced in already, no surprises as of yet. My indicators are pointing down right now, though.
DeleteSo it's an excuse to take profits.
XLF is sitting at $20, so I'm going to keep a close eye on it.
FMAR - Talk about catching the downside, wonder if this bank closes it's doors? Hard to believe considering their location, how could they have possibly screwed up this bad in comparison unless they've never had the same set of advantages available that others do?
ReplyDeleteSee green lines on this chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=d1
And note the blue one too, ouch!
DeleteLong DUST at $33.74 merely because of what we talked about before...looks very similar to FAZ setup in my opinion.
ReplyDeletejeez this thing is volatile.
DeleteBidding NSPH @ 1.96.
ReplyDeleteWell that ran away from me. Article published today caught my eye. Nothing new but covered it well.
Deletecaceled.
DeleteMan that daily chart on DUST looks amazing. Sure looks like it's going to $90+.
ReplyDeleteactually with these leveraged ones it probably only gets to $70ish before topping out...if it follows the same pattern as FAZ/SDS/etc back in the day.
Deleteadded at $33.85
DeleteOffed the JCP pos @ breakeven. Of course, that still means I 'lost' the price of two trading commissions.
ReplyDeleteMY very strong today. Great sign.
ReplyDeletesold a tiny amount at $2.6 and a chunk at $2.5
DeleteStrong - Yeah, I'd say so....
DeleteAdded last bit of DUST at $33.47
ReplyDeleteLater gators!
ReplyDeleteACTV - Taking this one off here.
ReplyDeleteACHN - Buy -> Underperform
ReplyDeleteGreat hindsight analysis, don't you think? These guys get paid well for their opinions, huh? Pity the fool who thinks they know what they're talking about or they aren't beyond misleading their customers...........
ARR - Sure is holding up well considering they cut their dividend sharply, don't you think?
ReplyDeleteMY - OMGosh, volume has been really strong for a couple weeks.
ReplyDeletei did the unthinkable trader mistake...kept buying up DUST when it cratered. It's funny whenever i do this on a day trade I would say my odds of making money are actually fairly good. I have a $33.3 avg that I just closed out at $33.89
ReplyDeleteI closed it because it was a difficult trade but more so because I think I may have jumped the gun on this trade in the overall picture. I'd like to see a further rally in GDX...possibly a test of the $30 level again. I suspect there are a lot of people that are short these suckers and it will need to take a little more time.
DeleteSold more of my MY at $2.38 to $2.5
ReplyDeletewent long fairly large position in TZA at $22.75. Will stop out below $22.2.
ReplyDeleteUGA - Damn, my turd broker won't let me trade this one, BLOCKED! WTF! :(
ReplyDeletesURGe - ?
ReplyDeleteWho thinks we hit the highs of the year in the S&P?
ReplyDeleteNot me - I think once we get through the government side show, people will start looking at stocks as businesses again and see the value and start buying. It's not like most stocks are really cheap now, but they're not expensive either. And as the economy continues to improve, their results will get better and stocks will go up.
DeletePlus, we are in the seasonally strongest part of the year, so you've got those tailwinds as well.
Now, I could easily be wrong on this as 3 months is not a long time and there is a lot of crap going on between the US government, Italy, China, the Fed, etc., but I feel quite confident stocks are higher than now a year from now.
Kinda think we see one more push higher after Thanksgiving.
DeleteI think if we wanted to short, it shoudl've been the initial response to the FED release. It's getting more dangerous now, since the US Congress will cave as soon as their brokers have loaded the boat.
DeleteDid you see the 24hr dog and pony show by the Texas politician last weekend? Just another example, what a sad joke to hide their real intention........
my concern is I think a lot of people don't expect the highs of the year to be in yet. I think there's a decent chance they are. I wouldn't be surprised to see continued choppiness for a while.
Deletewhen that happens where the market trades sideways for a while without going higher it tends to drift slightly lower and lower. i kind of think we get that for the next year...tho part of me thinks we get one big run up as well before ultimately drifting lower...perhaps to 1,800 or so. i don't think valuations support that but we all know how that works. doesn't really matter though cuz the big $$ is made on individual stocks.
DeletePOT - Hey poisoned girls, how 'bout this one?
ReplyDeleteClosed TZA at $22.89. Worth a shekel or two
ReplyDeleteSBS - See the last bar, $1M trade into close. Real, or Memorex?
ReplyDeleteI added some CECO today at $2.7 and $2.75. I really like the chart on this one. I love how it is making several rounded bottoms which are always juicier than flat bottoms.
ReplyDeleteaesthetics aside, fundamentals haven't really changed. they're undergoing a turnaround. New CEO in place from SUNY with a lot of experience in the industry. they're shedding non core assets, have a solid balance sheet, and are starting to see glimmers of hope on their enrollment numbers. the other reason i really like this one is there is a large shareholder that has been shedding his stake for like a year and it no doubt has kept a lid on the stock. when this lid is removed i think the stock shoots up.
DeleteTOF asked, "Who thinks we hit the highs of the year in the S&P?"
ReplyDeleteOpp asked this a few weeks back laying out 7 potential scenarios here are the two that received the most votes.
Scenario 3: 27.1%
[Odyssey No 3.] 17 weekly bars have been added
If this is your adventure, last week's early September advance runs out of gas right here, the market stalls, and
sells off the rest of the month and all of October (succumbing to seasonal presumptions) retreating all the way
down to the June low of 1560+/-… and then…free of October fears, stabilizes in November and trades very
well in December, recovering to 1655+/- where we are now… for a gain of 16.0% on the year (+18.0% when
including dividends).
This trajectory might be called the "market-has-its-issues-but-also-is-too-inexpensive-to-completely-fall apartso-
stay-in-the-game-stay-invested" scenario, implying that the great debate between Bears and Bulls rages on.
The great debate as to whether the 2009-2013 bull market is starting to lose steam… or whether the advance
that got under way in March of 2009 is and remains very much intact.
Follow-up by Opp after voting:
Our thought: this is the scenario we ourselves chose and is one that is already "under pressure" so to speak.
And that is to say, the market was strong last week and indicated to be strong again today and this scenario
calls for weakness for the rest of September and all of October. And while "it ain't over till it’s over", this
scenario is on the ropes. Roughly 1 out of 4 people went with this choice.
Scenario 5: 35.6%
[Odyssey No 5.] 17 weekly bars have been added
A decent September… followed by an October “tease” down to the 1575 (a successful “test” of the 1560 June
low) followed by a bit of chop in October in the 1575-1625 range … and then, a solid rally in November and
December and a new all-time high of 1745 before a dip the last week of the year, with the SPX closing on
December 31st at 1710+/- right at the August 2nd high. (+20.0% for the year... +22.0% when including
dividends).
A touch of anxiety and stress in the weeks ahead but it's only a tease that serves as the setup for a strong
November-December rally.
Follow-up by Opp after voting:
Our thought: this is a real possibility. And it's the overwhelming favorite among you. Of respondents, one in
three chose this scenario. It implies a decent September (which is playing out so far) followed by a real but
manageable drawdown of 7% in October (very possible), followed by a year-end rally that leaves the SPX at
1710+/- on December 31st. What's not to like.
FWIW's
BTW 700 responses
DeleteSome 700 individuals responded to last week's Choose Your Own Adventure, with responses coming in from
all quarters of the investment community.
Geographically, replies came in from Switzerland, Germany, the UK, Canada and Israel… and from some 17
States within the US. By “type”, replies came in from a wide and varied group, including portfolio managers
(long only and hedged), buy side analysts, traders (buy side and sell side), private client brokers, sell side
analysts, commodity traders, currency traders, a handful of high net worth individuals and a few members of
the media (print and TV).
So what do I win!!!???
DeleteTwo tickets to paradise.
DeleteWhere else in the world but China, does a cricket bring the princely sum of $5?
ReplyDeleteAnd I used to think a $25 apple in Japan was extravagant.......
Long TZA after hours $22.69/$22.7, long SPXU $20.66
ReplyDeleteClosed small loss
DeleteTick-tock, biological clock:
ReplyDelete"18 percent of Japanese women 35 to 39 have never been married. "
And generally will not kiss white men.
DeleteI don't believe we've seen the year's highs, which may in fact come in around 1800.
ReplyDeleteOINK - Any chance at all?
ReplyDeleteC&H/IH&S
DeletePower, prosperity and poverty:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/jun/07/what-makes-countries-rich-or-poor/?pagination=false
Unsustainable Commodities Consumption:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.jareddiamond.org/Jared_Diamond/Further_Reading_files/Diamond%202008.pdf
ANGO - Definitely looks like a bull flag.
ReplyDeleteRH- 4M shares coming on the market. Still looking at 60.
ReplyDeleteHave they recovered to EBIT positive?
DeleteWe should all have DUSTed yesterday.
ReplyDeleteI thought the US gov was refusing to pay bills?
Delete26.43 is your bogey on NEM.
ReplyDeleteANGO - $13.23, right?
ReplyDeleteThis knife is being used to make cancer cells vulnerable to cancer killing compounds.
DeleteChuck Todd - Obama isn't going to back down.
ReplyDeleteWhere's that fool from Tx.?
TA - One more leg down???
ReplyDeleteRAD - This thing refuses to die.
ReplyDeleteRH- I don't know if they are EBITA positive or not. Could you take a quick look at the last Q?
ReplyDeleteNatty drillers moving.
ReplyDeleteEverybody please reread the title post. Then click below,
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
I think you mean "Turning On a Dime"
DeleteGold getting smoked! was looking to see some lift into the new quarter instead they hit the gas and are driving to the cliff's edge. More pain to come most likely.
DeleteIDX - Worth a shot here?
ReplyDeleteMy sale of DUST signalled the turning point. Should have kept position size small to allow me to hold it.
ReplyDeleteLong PNRA at $159.7
ReplyDelete1700 - Looks like it's coming..... XLF over 20.02 is the line in the sand.
ReplyDeletePNRA downgrade after a long downtrend since late May that sliced off 19% of the stock price seems a bit fishy to me, but that's what happened yesterday. I love the brand and every one I've visited looks busy. Valuation is reasonable given the steady growth over the years (2.8X operating income growth from 08 to 12, shrinking share base, solid balance sheet (good cash balance, no debt). Probably just a trade if it goes up to $170 quickly but I like it here.
ReplyDeleteThat down move in CECO from the past couple of days looks like a nice TKO.
ReplyDeleteLong DATE at $6.66.
ReplyDeleteThey are the eHarmony of China. I've had it on my watch list for a while now and was waiting for an entry. RSI_EMA reading of around 30 on a move to test recent lows. I like the entry but my position is tiny.
DeleteStalling here, newbies about to get hosed?
ReplyDeletehey - who you calling a newbie!?!
DeleteCLNE and KWK both strong.
ReplyDeleteOn CP's note, I'm selling PNRA at $160.5. I don't want to be a newbie!
ReplyDeleteInteresting.....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/10/shutdown-dumbness-walking-softly/
He has some very good points, and CUBA is in there as well as commodities, assuming the third world is about to have their renaissance, will Japan open their arms to immigration, is the recent Kenyan incident any indicator of the desperation of repressive regimes being unable to hold back the coming wave?
DeleteAll of these issues being resolved even serially would easily justify an S&P 2000 level, wouldn't it?
Oink - Squeeling higher..............
ReplyDeleteHell, I dunno of course but since XLF is still over $20.02 so far, bulls haven't lost.......
ReplyDeletePNRA looking good for a gap fill. This newbie is still holding. I do actually feel like a newbie a lot despite the years we have put in on this stuff.
ReplyDeleteANGO - New 52wk high........
ReplyDeletePretty damn hard for PM bulls clinging to maintain their position concerning currency devaluation...................!!!!
ReplyDeleteWow, been long the miners of gold and silver for a few... [#121673]
DeleteBy: rookietrader (2 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
October 1, 2013 at 9:08 am
Wow, been long the miners of gold and silver for a few years, taking the advice of certain people on this site. This morning gold and silver are down more than I can take. This might be my time to count my MASSIVE losses and move on. Who or why would anyone stay on this ride. Bottom? Don’t listen to the noise as they
Robot is STILL short,.....
ReplyDeleteFor anyone who wants to understand the bull case on gold, from Don Coxe, one of the more trustworthy (in my opinion) commodity bulls:
ReplyDeletehttp://jutiagroup.com/20130930-why-don-coxe-expects-gold-to-soar-on-good-economic-news/
http://www.socaljetboats.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=10987.0;attach=39575;image
ReplyDeleteI have just one comment this morning. We don't need to trade. Let the trade come to you.
ReplyDeleteYeah, market seems to be just jumping all over based on news, so no real logical way to trade. Better to wait for the market to give you setups you like.
DeleteOpened a position in RYCVX at the 1030 window. Also a modest position in DIA @ 150.24.
ReplyDeleteWell, PM's are up this morning, LOL!
ReplyDeleteIf we do get growth in emerging nations, remember that western nations commodities consumption is about 32x per capita more than emerging nations, Many consider ours an unsustainable rate for the entire worlds population and that a balance needs to be struck where emerging nations increase somewhat and developed decrease.
ReplyDeleteSold the rest of MY at 2.64
ReplyDeleteI went long PEIX today at $3.86. I waited a while on this one. They reported a profitable quarter last quarter and corn costs have dropped dramatically:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CORN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p13710109413
I know it's not just a straight correlation between the two but this adds a tailwind. There's also a lot of interest in this space with the RIN credits skyrocketing:
http://green.autoblog.com/2013/07/18/ethanol-rin-credits-have-climbed-2000-percent-this-year/
I think there's a chance this thing runs like a mofo. I have a starter position in it.
one other thing...last year was the worst drought in the past 50 years which really killed the ethanol market. this year production gains are moving prices down significantly.
DeleteYeah, there seems to have been a sure in crop production too, judging by the way tractor and farming manufacturers stocks have performed.
DeleteMY- Great trade brody.
ReplyDeleteDCTH - Taking this one off here......
ReplyDeleteANGO - Cardiac patient has blood clot removed, open heart surgery was avoided by sucking out a blood clot which stretched from his heart to his leg.
ReplyDeleteThat's wild.
DeleteYeah, I'm hoping this thing gets beat to a pulp, so I can get in.
DeleteCredit companies propose "New Global Standard to Make Online and Mobile Shopping Simpler and Safer"
ReplyDeleteHurray for the late to the party bunch, LOL!
Good article on the Financial Times about why dividend stocks have done so well lately and why that is changing now.
ReplyDelete"Since Lehman in 2008, growth stocks – chosen because their earnings are growing rather than because they look cheap – have comfortably outperformed value stocks. But quality income beat both, even though it would normally be regarded as a kind of value investing."
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5305f8ee-2aab-11e3-8fb8-00144feab7de.html#axzz2gao6GiqB
I've also seen other stats about how growth has been outperforming value for the longest period in the last 30 years and how this is very unusual.
All this points to the fact that the place to look for good stocks is low/no dividend good value stocks.
RH - Seems like support held, and look at volume.. Next leg up has begun?????
ReplyDeleteNow here's a good chart from Ryan Detrick:
ReplyDeletehttp://stocktwits.com/message/16227895
If the pattern holds, expect a grinding, slightly down October, followed by a 10% - 20% ramp into year end.
I know I shouldn't pay much attention to charts like these as there is no scientific rational for the correlation, but I still really like them!
Yeah, my perception is we aren't headed down. If we were, then why don't we drop like a rock as everyone runs for the exits? Could be distribution and I'm leaning to the wrong side though, my percepction could be warped..
DeleteRobot is short from 1689, it could've switched today but didn't update or is still short. SMH and XLF closed basically flat, too.
Seems like a huge imbalance on the buy side across the board? am I correct?
ReplyDeleteRemember sometime ago Guy Babylon (Elton John's keyboardist and arranger) passed away and his son wrote a song about it?
ReplyDeleteHe is now working on his second album, has been opening for some well established acts Leon Russell), won the L.A. battle of the bands and is playing in Vegas at the Elton Expo 2013. Check it out....http://www.eltonfan.net/cgi-bin/news/viewnews.cgi?id=EFlpyAkVyylUtYxXcL&style=Default+News+Style&tmpl=viewnews
Also: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UABLTYoKV94&feature=em-upload_owner#action=share
Awesome.
DeleteImbalances seem about even to me.
ReplyDeleteBut that's just me looking at about 20 stocks. I don't know of a website that lists them.
Deletehttp://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/10/02/why-most-traders-fail/
ReplyDeleteThat's actually the exact word I use when people ask about what we do... It's a grind.
DeleteIn my opinion the number one reason why traders fail is they trade too much. Then again, I find it a lot easier to do trades that last several days to several months long. That's typically the sweet spot for me. Whenever I try to day trade I would say the majority of my trades don't work.
DeleteI think the number two reason is not being flexible / open minded.
I took on more longs than I wanted to today so between CECO, PEIX, DATE, YRCW, and PNRA I was up to about 75% longs. I've been trying to keep it around 40% cash. To hedge this I bought some TZA after hours at way too high of a price (22.5X). Probably will take a hit on this but I just want to sleep better at night. I still do not quite trust this market...
ReplyDeleteHave you held YRCW round trip on this last move?
DeleteNo I have bought and sold it three times. I probably should have taken profits today but I only have 10% in it. I kinda want to hold it for a while and just see what happens but I know I can't do that.
DeleteI have purchased it I guess i should say. Me no speak english well.
DeleteMITK is actually setting up.
DeleteShe'sssssss aliiiiive! Looks like a potential IHS to me but it needs to bounce pronto.
DeleteAnyone else think Obama called the top today in his interview? Would be something if he called the bottom and the top huh?
The key is to get in and out before the sell more shares.
Deletenew post
ReplyDelete