Wednesday, October 2, 2013
10/3/13 Gap Up
That's what I foresee on Thursday. My basis for saying that? After mulling over different scenarios, I ended up asking the question Cody Willard likes to pose: 'Who's more scared?' I think it's bears. Why? You can cut the gloom tonight with a knife. Any sign of a compromise in Washington will jack the indexes in a heartbeat. Of course, I need to 'discount' my take by saying I'm long the DJIA.
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I just explained credit scores to Hailey. I doubt Kendra will EVER ask about them.
ReplyDeleteTell her it's like multiplying soccer scores by 100, and the goal is to score more than 7.
Delete2nd - I hope you're right. I'll gladly take my TZA off at a loss.
ReplyDeleteMark - Is she applying for a loan for one of those Barry houses?
She's funny. She thinks EVERYTHING through. It's really funny to watch. But she understands how my business makes money, how and who can barrow money and what happens if you don't pay it back. Kendra understands she's not getting pizza tonight and she's pissed off.
DeleteOn the other hand Kendra made 2 clutch free throws in overtime to win the game yesterday. Pretty gutty chit.
Deletehaha. it definitely is pretty crazy how different kids can be huh? Same environment, same everything.
DeleteGreat stuff out of Detrick today regarding fund flows. Definitely makes you wonder what the hell people have been thinking:
http://stocktwits.com/RyanDetrick
I guess it all makes sense because the average person believes Obamacare is worse for them than the Affordable Care Act:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sx2scvIFGjE&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dsx2scvIFGjE&app=desktop
Damn, you caught me. I was the one in the Lakers jersey.
DeleteI actually thought it was going to be one of those Hitler spoofs. I still cry over some of those. Much like GMO.
DeleteStill holding GMO?!?
DeleteI just checked and I actually got filled on NBG today. A whopping 4k shs. I now officially own the crappiest stock on the market...no offense to AUMN holders
ReplyDeleteHLF
Ackman converts 40% of Herbalife short to long-term puts, questions buyback
Bill Ackman has shifted his strategy. Pershing Square has converted around 40% of its Herbalife (HLF) short into long-term put options which will allow the hedge fund to "make a similar amount of profit as if [it] had maintained the entire initial short position" assuming HLF fails "within a reasonable amount of time."
This reduces the percentage of the float sold short and, to quote Ackman, if "a substantial component of the bull case ... is predicated on forcing [Pershing Square] to cover [then] the restructuring of [the] investment negates [an] important pillar of the bull case."
Cont...
ReplyDeletePerhaps more important is Ackman's take on HLF's chances of launching an investment grade bond issue to fund a $2B buyback: "When Moody's withdrew its ratings on HLF, the company was rated Ba1, a junk rating [and] had only $178M of debt, approximately 0.5x 12-month trailing operating profits. If HLF were to issue $2B of additional debt today [it] would have $3B of total debt, or 4.3 times 12-month trailing operating profits."
The point: In the event of a $2B bond issue, the company would have 16 times as much debt as it did when Moody's rated it in junk territory. Given this, Ackman wonders how HLF could possibly garner an investment grade rating, let alone an interest rate of 4% (the Tim Ramey thesis).
If your interested in the Pershing letter (PDF), let me know and I will email it. Amazing! Covers JCP as well.
DeleteAckman never heard of PFM, obviously.
DeleteBut confidence and conviction without humility can be dangerous in the investment business.
ReplyDeleteWhen one shares an investment thesis publicly, it can be more difficult to change one’s mind
because the human mind has a tendency to ignore data that are inconsistent with a firmly held
view, and particularly so, when that view is aired publicly. That is likely why Wall Street
analysts continued to rate MBIA a buy until it nearly went bankrupt. And, I believe it is why
analysts will likely keep their buy ratings until Herbalife is shut down by regulators or the
company faces substantial distributor defections.
I have learned that the key to long-term success in investing is to balance confidence with the
humility to recognize when the facts are no longer consistent with one’s original investment
thesis. It is critically important not to let psychological factors interfere with economic
rationality in investment decision making.
Got the hell out of tza at breakeven when pre mkt opened
ReplyDeleteDIA closed at the open. I've been watching the ----er decline for the past 45 minutes, and have no choice but to place an order to close RYCVX at the 1030 window. Sure, I could bet on a rebound by 345- but that's called trading on hope,a notoriously bad strategy. Minor gain on DIA, minor loss on RYCVX> that's kind of like a 1-1 count, and I'll wait for the next pitch.
ReplyDeleteCome on BB. Give me another winner.
ReplyDeleteSGG ?????
DeleteLong TNA for a very short term trade. $61.56
ReplyDeleteI kind of understand where you're coming from, but the lack of any bounce this morning doesn't 'feel good,' bro. 'Course it could just be my failed trade that doesn't feel good.
DeleteSold at $61.66. Whoppie!
Deletemy suspicion is shorts will be disappointed yet again. look at this list of high fliers. Its my litmus test:
Deletehttp://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=BEAT,MFRI,PACR,SUNE,SCTY,AFOP,RPTP,SPWR,HILL,RAD,TSLA,CLFD,fmd,MKTG,MNKD,CYTK,DANG,XRM,HIMX,TSLA,CSIQ,HSOL,IMMU,LPTH,YY&o=-change
not exactly bearish. could obviously change in an instant. perhaps TSLA is the first crack...
Congress needs to market to "punish" them first, so their brokers can reload the boat. I guess.
ReplyDeleteFMAR - That was a nice round trip......
ReplyDelete$9.5 cash/share and trading at $0.80, right?
Deleteadded to CECO at $2.77.
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteHard to know what to do here. Probably this shutdown all washes away, but I'm thinking the Republicans may hold firm on the debt ceiling to make their point and that is definitely not in the market. I'm just sitting on my hands for now. A sell-off on the debt ceiling would be a good buying opportunity though.
check out how EWI, EWP, EWG, FXI, GREK...basically anything in europe or china is performing. shit even NBG looks good.
DeleteDon't get me wrong, I'm still pretty much fully invested. I'm just thinking the risk/reward for new positions is probably not good now. If we do get a debt default type event, I think everything goes down except gold and ironically, treasuries.
DeleteIt almost feels as if the market's transitioning to the 'distribution' phase.
ReplyDeleteI don't like that we are well below 1700 and the 50 dma.
DeleteI stopped out of some of my best trades like CLDX. Capital preservation mode.
TVIX - Nice
ReplyDeleteCCL - This is the kind of action I like to see, reverse bear flag and shorts making money means they're going to be taking profits at some point. Short float seems small, though.
ReplyDeleteCCL seems to be bottoming at the bottom trend line which has been in place since mid-2011, so a good place to turn.
DeleteThe way I look at CCL is they are by far the largest cruise operator with over 40% market share and between CCL and NCLH, they have a combined 70% market share, so nobody is going to do anything crazy on pricing. Plus, it is almost impossible to start another cruise line at this time. I think the cruise market is about 4% of the overall lodging market, so their main competitors are really resorts and they are seeing rate increases this year as well.
So, they've had a tough go, but the long term market is still steady (I personally don't like cruises, but lots of people love them) and it is a temporary setback. These stocks almost always do well longer term - the real question is what is the best price. That is why I bought half in the high $32's and would buy the other half if we hit the $29's, which is the low from the last few years.
BB - CCL has actually performed very poorly over the longer term.
DeleteThere are probably some resorts that like the cruise lines, synergistic business models I guess.
DeleteIt might be a good trade.
Tea Party called my house last night while I was out, they seemed concerned about all the debt Congress racked up on unfunded wars in the middle east and are now opposed to increasing the debt limit, I think, or maybe they're opposed to the affordable healthcare act, not sure.
ReplyDeleteUHS - This one hasn't turned down yet, I think they've got a good business going.
ReplyDeleteThe RUT has honored prior highs for the whole year. It's right at the August highs. While I've personally been cautious I'm starting to get more bullish only because its very rare for a market to top out because of some risk that hits it that everyone knows is coming (i.e., shutdown, debt ceilling). When a market just rolls over due to excessive distribution that's when it's very bad. Doesn't mean this won't be the top but odds are low it was.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I don't see any reason we won't experience a snap-back rally, probably to new highs. Seems like growth is becoming stronger, globally. I'm seriously thinking about BALT now, regretting not taking a position back when you were pointing it out.
DeleteCP - BALT looks fantastic.
ReplyDeleteI was stopped out of my PNRA at breakeven earlier today so I had more cash on hand than I've had in a while. Been adding a few positions today. NBG, DATE, CECO, PEIX
ReplyDeletePEIX - Sugar has bottomed now, not sure how that's going to impact PEIX but higher sugar makes south american ethanol more expensive, right?
DeleteI dunno man, but it does seem like there's interest in emerging markets, there could be some more of the rotation going on that BB eluded to a couple months ago.
ReplyDeleteI really think shorts are going to get smoked here in the near future.
How are the golbal data looking, it's looking like growth isn't it? Certainly emerging economic strength isn't priced in here, is it?
Green close? That would be a doozy.
ReplyDeleteEPI - Right shoulder looks abbreviated, to me.
ReplyDeleteCP- Your not on the loose again are you?
ReplyDeleteRYCVX closed the 1030 am trading window @ 35.72 (basis was 35.98 at Wednesday’s 1030 am window). Had I been allowed to close at Wednesday’s 345 pm window it would have been a decent gain. I’m starting to think the only ‘work around’ for the mutual fund handicap is to trade the reverse of what I would normally use for an intraday trade!
ReplyDeleteCurious, what entity would not allow you to close it out at 3:45?
DeleteRydex or Fido?
Both. The fund has a one day (T+1) settlement. Can't bend the rules. Of course, it's possible to buy at 345 pm and close at 1030 am the next day.
DeleteKind of surprised Rydex will not let you trade both times, in effect a 24 hour trade no matter what.
DeleteRydex could bend rules but they will not for retail. Back in the day when we moved millions around I negotiated a T + 3 settlement. Of course it was different management then now.
2nd you probably know this, but Rydex/Gug (large line-up) has almost identical ETF's available perhaps that's a better way for your style. May be worth a check. FWIW
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteBTW, did a starter on VLCCF, like the sector.
ReplyDeleteMost likely this month is going to be choppy, but find it hard to think it will not end year stronger (perhaps too consensus).
KWK, SOUTHEASTERN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. took a 5.3% position which is most likely which pushed upped KWK 32%. It is likely that this stock will have a bid under it going forward at least to end of year and perhaps longer as these guys are decent value guys.
ReplyDeleteI just took that one off my watch list a couple weeks ago, LOL!
DeleteARO - Gap up obligation has been closed for a couple days, it seems.
ReplyDeleteGreen close? Hey at least I tried. Hussman has way more wrong calls in his pocket so I feel good relatively speaking
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteFrom 2005 to 2008, when things were better in the economy, CCL made earnings of over $2.70 per share and traded at multiples above 15 every year and usually higher, except 2008. Revenue during those years grew from $11.1 billion to $14.6 billion.
Revenue now is over $15 billion, fewer shares are out, few ships are on order and pricing is controlled as I mentioned before, so no reason they can't get the margins up again. Margins are low now because of all the recent issues they had.
So, if you get earnings back towards $3.00 with a 17 multiple and the stock is a $50.00 stock.
On the downside, their worst year in the last 10 was a profit of $1.67, and they currently have a $1.00, so it is hard to see the stock much below $25 (15 multiple on $1.67), as I think we are at trough earnings, unless we have another 2008 style crisis.
yeah fundamentally it looks good. Just hasn't done jack in 15 years. maybe because it's growing into its valuation?
DeleteYeah, that is a lot of it. Valuation got way ahead in the late 90's. P/E was in the 30's. Happened to a lot of S&P 500 stocks. Best example is WMT - you'd think from it's chart, it had a great run to 2000, then did nothing for 10 years, but reality is business consistently got better for decades, but valuations got way too high.
DeleteCP,
ReplyDeleteI think the world is picking up growth-wise. You seem to hear more and more good outside the US. Maybe it is the world's turn to pull the US up for a while.
From a rotation perspective, early on in the year, the US had a big lead in markets, but lately a lot of the European ones have caught up and even commodity-heavy Canada out-performed the US last quarter.
Plus, you see market-cap heavy stocks like the Dow and large cap dividend players struggling as the "bond substitute" trade ends making the big indexes look weaker, but the smallcaps like IWN are way up this year and still doing well.
Maybe the 1671-1674 gap is in play......
ReplyDeleteOops, it's already done. filled while I was zoning out.....
DeleteGermany - Thought there was supposed to be a vote as to whether or not the "EU bailout" was constitutional........ What happened to that one???/ Sheesh, don't blink.
ReplyDeleteSVM - Failed to hang onto $3.20, could be a bad omen?
ReplyDeleteExplosion in Hong Kong Post Office Warehouse. Probably old news, but sellers on ebay are affected.
MILL- What an easy trade that would have been to hang onto.
ReplyDeleteno way we would have held. i always find reasons to sell after moves of 30 to 50% in a couple of weeks. Take a look at MY. I bought at $1.7 and Sold at $2.4 and $2.6 thinking it was overbought. Or better yet look at OWW earlier this year. who could possibly have held on to that one the whole way up?
Deletethe easiest ones are the YRCW's that go from $7 to $15 in two days. Sure you miss the next 100% but 100% in 2 days is tough to match.
Good god. Remember ADES? Hit $44 recently. I bought at $5 I think. Yikes!
DeleteThat one went from $2 to $8 in 4 months, then backfilled down to $4 for 9 months....enough time to frustrate the shit out of everything. Then bam. To $24 in 4 months.
DeleteYeah bull markets are wonderful, but.
DeleteAnd how about PCLN? $950 to $6 to over $1,000.
Delete$60K to $10 million if you timed it perfectly. But no-one did.
OINK - up 27% today. I guess Chinese like eating pork?
ReplyDeleteNOR - Now the market cap is less than their BAC loan(s).
ReplyDeleteIMAX - Coming back to you?
ReplyDeleteA victim of Gravity?
DeleteFMAR - What do you guys think, sunk?
ReplyDeleteI was looking at this one a few days ago for some reason. Tiny bank that doesn't really trade.
DeleteI've noticed some tiny banks don't trade much but when they do start, they ZOOM, one I was looking at was owned like better than 50% insiders but long forgot which one.
DeleteTWTR - ?
ReplyDeleteRF - A preferred regional bank.
ReplyDeleteCCL - Alright, bidding on this at $31.80, who knows........
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at this one too.
DeleteSVM - Bidding on this one at $2.82........ Not sure why I want it considering contractors were loading their trucks with dirt and nobody noticed!
ReplyDeleteI'd look at ANV instead???
DeleteHmm, I don't know this one but the chart is interesting.
Delete1687.18 - Notice this level on the weekly was when the MACD rolled over.
ReplyDeleteStorm in gulf will bring us rain Mon/Tues, might get rough down there?
ReplyDeleteI think the selling is over for now. Opening RYTNX at the 1030 am window.
ReplyDeleteLFUS - Here's one to think about. I was looking for a heavy-duty power transistor and found these guys make it. I guess they use it in some controller of theirs, besides just selling them into the market.
ReplyDeleteMUX - Also getting beat up today, thinking of bidding...
ReplyDeleteDon't get me wrong, I'm not inspired to buy this market b/c the chart looks so much like the gold chart does, from a couple years back.
ReplyDeleteCP - We wouldn't be able to buy anything in FMAR without busting it up. Too illiquid and too big of a spread.
ReplyDeleteDo you think I can buy 1000 shares per day for 30 days straight every day? That would be my max size position. Then sit on it till it goes to $5?
Deleteyeah absolutely. your broker would love you for it.
DeleteI have no trading fees, except for some reason a small SEC fee on some trades, not sure what that's about...
DeleteLooks like there's no SEC fee bidding on this one, might be when selling but it should be small if I dump the entire position in lumps. But, I do have to jump through a hoop to buy it, I need special permission from my broker, LOL!
DeleteNBG looking great.
ReplyDeleteDang, sure is!
DeleteI'm kinda gld to see federal workers furloughs, these guys need to learn the value of money and stop wasting it like it grows on trees.
ReplyDeleteYeah, what a bunch of deadbeats, they send themselves on fancy vacations to exotic locations like Afghanistan and play video games, and thy give themselves fancy satellite phones so they can call home to tell the wife to just use that government IOU to pay for groceries at the grocery store if the PX is closed. Then there is this worthless bitch, volunteering at the WWII memorial without pay so this hardworking Congressman could come down at get a photo op while drawing his full wages. http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/randy-neugebauer-slams-memorial-ranger-97804.html Damned lazy unappreciative wasteful federal employees. It's not like money grows on the trees you protect.
DeleteSo you're one of the blood suckers too, eh?
DeleteIf so, that would certainly explain your consistent disposition.
DeleteI just look at both sides of a ledger. It costs $300 million a day to shut the government down. If we used ALL of congress' total salary to pay that back it would cover about 3 hours of shutdown.
DeleteSo I would say I am very consistent. I consistently blame a house of representatives that refuses to accept they don't have the votes to overturn a veto. In short, I'm opposed to any minority holding hostages to try and overpower a majority. Maybe it's just me, but last time I checked we have a Constitution that accurately spells this stuff out. You know, the MAJORITY RULES. Silly me.
I didn't expect you'd understand my point whatsoever, seems disposition is too firmly ingrained to comprehend my original point and thus you will never comprehend it, simple as that.
DeleteNever mind though, I'm done discussing this with you, don't strain your brain over it. I'm just a dumb-ass and it's not worth your time, okay?
SCCO - This one is coming back, but I have mixed feelings over miners, Mongolian mine development could hold prices down for years.
ReplyDeleteFull disclosure that I'm long this, but the chart of DATE looks phenomenal.
ReplyDeleteThis is the eHarmony of China basically. About 40% of their market cap is in cash and they have had pretty solid growth over the past several years:
DeleteRevenues have grown 6 fold in the past 3 years while operating income has grown 5 fold.
Obamacare - Apparently it's popular among the public, people lining up to sign up? I think that's what I'm hearing.........
ReplyDeleteGot to be a lot of people without health insurance who would love it. I'm sure they will get everyone who is sick, needs a doctor, etc. signing up right away as they can't deny coverage.
DeleteIn preparation, a lot of insurance co's cancelled some policies and replaced them with policies with comparable deductibles, lower co-pays and higher premiums, so those people are also applying at the exchanges. I had a catastrophic plan that fit that category. I live in one of the states that has a good exchange and I will get better coverage for much less than the health insurance plan offered by my existing company. I think a lot of people are making assumptions that don't necessarily pan out.
DeleteInterestingly, with all the Washington crap, looks like the week is going to finish pretty much dead flat.
ReplyDeleteI think a lot of people are like me and waiting for the panic as we get close to the deadline, or perhaps go over for a couple of days.
I'm still thinking Euro-stocks are probably the best way to go. The 3 I am thinking about are SCGLY, EONGY and FIATY.
I did some looking for a good, cheap UK stock as the UK economy seems to be improving the quickest, but haven't found anything yet. If anyone has any ideas, let me know.
LYG?
DeleteThanks. Not really cheap anymore as they've increased there share float by over 10-fold. Not expensive and probably will do well with the economy, but would prefer something cheap and good.
DeleteFrench Bank SCGLY is below book value and tangible book. More economic risks with France, but with the lower price, I think its offset.
BP is a cheap UK one, but have a lot of cheap Canadian energy already and you still have lawsuit risk with BP.
Sold NBG at $3.56. Probably going to go higher but 12% in a week is hard to beat and I was doing it more because it was a chart play (and really the only way to play Greece that I can find as far as financials go).
ReplyDeleteFor you guys thinking about CCL, just saw that chief competitor, RCL, is the 6th best performing stock (I assume S&P) on average in Q4 over the last 10 years. There is seasonality in the cruising business, perhaps also in the stocks (llike there is in retail and energy stocks, plus others I'm sure). Anyhow, if RCL does well, it reasons CCL should as well after the beatdown it has had.
ReplyDeletehttp://stocktwits.com/RyanDetrick/message/16278281#16279667
Another positive we haven't considered is if Cuban sanctions are lifted, that could really put some wind in the sails?
DeleteI think I'm going to start legging into this one, will pick some up if it closes today better than $32.36
DeleteLMT - Thousands or furloughs. Now I understand why military contractor stocks have been running so strong for so long.......
ReplyDeleteRYTNX filled @ 47.35 at the 1030 am trading window. That correlates with SPX 168.31 (RYTNX is a 2x leveraged fund). SPX currently changing hands @ 168.95, so it looks good. However, I’m unable to close the trade until Monday. That’s OK. The entire trade (which applies to the DJIA trade on Wednesday and Thursday) is based on the premise that fears surrounding a ‘government shutdown’ prompts reflexive selling by weak hands. In other words, I’m swinging at the same pitch delivered on Wednesday, but this time I know (or think I know) a little more about the guy on the mound.
ReplyDeleteI meant SPY, not SPX.
Delete"This isn't some damn game!"
ReplyDeleteWhat an f'in idiot...........
it's all a game. same with "investing"
DeleteAgreed, unfortunately. These guys think we're stupid, I'm not kidding.
DeleteEnded up selling my position in CECO at a loss...$2.73. I think my avg price was around $2.76. bummer.
ReplyDeleteI also added some DATE at $6.95 to $6.97
ReplyDeleteWho would of thunk sandwiches are so profitable?
ReplyDeleteWow, what was up with the volume today in SPY?
ReplyDeleteTraders are probably buying calls and/or SSO instead ;)
DeleteACHN- Anyone have time to check this one out?
ReplyDeleteYeah, I was looking at it a couple days back when I saw my broker downgraded to sell from buy AFTER it tanked. It sounded on the surface like a BS downgrade, but I think I'd rather pursue something else.
DeleteSGEN This is one Crammer pumped the day before it rolled over, looks like it's at an inflection point here.
ReplyDeleteEurope - How about FEU ?
ReplyDeleteTWTRQ - ??????? LOL!
ReplyDeleteJCP after hours @ 7.85. Yeah, I know.
ReplyDeleteActually, I kinda like that idea.
DeleteGeorge Soros likes the idea as well. At least, he liked the idea earlier: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-george-soros-plays-the-stock-market-2013-10-04?siteid=yhoof2 We'll find out later this year whether he held, added, or sold during this week's sell off.
DeleteYou should be good to go. I was really looking at it right before 5:00 and passed.
DeleteJust remember BBY.
DeleteMOBI-licious.
ReplyDeletet3d- I'm only allowed to trade funds in my 403(b). Thanks to you, I now trade Rydex funds with T+1 settlements + no commissions whatsoever! Outside the 403(b) I use ETFs.
ReplyDeleteHappy you are able to save on commissions. I hate the way the industry dings us all with fees.
DeleteYesterdays SPY volume.... Ahhh, my data feed must have been wrong. It was showing like 700M shares traded.
ReplyDeletejeez what the hell happened to JCP fundamentally? I was just looking at their financials and they're horrible. Sales dropped 25% last year and they lost almost $1 Billion. They added $1.9 Billion in debt in the past quarter. I'm all for turnarounds but BBY was in much better shape financially...
ReplyDeleteWhen was the last time you were in one?
DeleteI drove past one a couple weeks ago and noted my partially blocked view of the parking lot showed it empty. I shoud've pulled in and cruised the lot.
DeleteAside: A pirate language translator:
http://www.fissio.com/pirate.pl
I'm wondering if it's more like OSH, which was SHLD's dumping ground..........?
DeleteOnly thing I've ever recall buying there were draperies, they used to have a huge drapery section.
DeleteAt least they finally dumped Mr Twinkletoes..........
Delete"We're making it up as we go along," says Wedbush's Michael Pachter, trying to model estimates amid Amazon's (AMZN) famous lack of detail regarding the costs of ventures like cloud-computing, Kindle, and same-day delivery of groceries. "Revenues are growing quickly so there's progress, but what are the costs for all these businesses? You tell me."
ReplyDeleteThat investors give a free pass to nearly-profitless Amazon is great for consumers and bad news to the owners of companies like Netflix (NFLX), Best Buy (BBY), Staples (SPLS), RadioShack (RSH), Wal-Mart (WMT), and even Kroger (KR). But what happens to Amazon once the pass is revoked?
Analysts willing to venture a guess see earnings of $10.61 per share in 2016. To hit it, Amazon would need to continue to grow revenues at more than a 20% annual pace while expanding operating margins to 4% from 1% now. Plausible? Sure. But if the stock were to climb 10% per year over the next three, shares for the far more mature company would still trade at 40x those hopeful earnings.
Brandt is long Yen
ReplyDeleteAnyone know of an interactive long term chart for the Dow? Yahoo Finance used to have one that went back to the 1920's, but now it only goes back to 1992.
ReplyDeleteJust looking at a couple of mutual fund's September reports for ideas and amazing how the 5 year return's went from being crap to pretty reasonable and they should be looking great in a few months as the bad from fall 2008 falls off. What do you want to bet they start advertising 5 year returns soon.
ReplyDeleteLong DGAZ premarket at $14.35. Just a day trade I think.
ReplyDeleteA few stocks I really like longer term after recent pullbacks are PNRA and VSI. I think both are good places to start buying longer term positions. They both have excellent longer term financial trends.
Added at $14.
DeleteLast add $13.75.
DeletePNRA- Maybe that other sandwich place will take a few $'s in the begining?
DeleteBackstopped. That means I will be closing RYTNX at the 1030 am window. Wrong bet, once again. Not a problem, as long as I follow through as planned.
ReplyDeleteSold 1/2 of NBG at $4.9
ReplyDeleteScrew it sold the rest at $4.87
DeleteGreta trade bro.
DeleteBLMN is in an interesting spot.
A Greta Garbo trade?
DeleteWell I should clarify. I didn't have time to post it but I bought it this morning right after the open at $4.68 and sold it here. I sold it on Friday and realized I made a mistake pre market when it was holding up well. I should have just held through the weekend.
DeleteThere you go. The 'Leave me alone' trade.
DeleteAnd of course I left a lot on the table via impatience. NBG bidding $5.07. It's now in the hands of the momentum guys.
DeleteDon't sweat it. You made money. How would you feel if you hadn't even taken a position?
DeleteCCL - Friday gaped down and was bought up, Will this action repeat today? Seems like a bullish phenomenon, assuming it's not a robotic trading fakeout.
ReplyDeleteif ever there was a spot you want to buy CCL for a trade its right around $32.
DeleteBACML - "US equities resilient against a wall of worry; NASDAQ & Russell leadership; mega caps laggards; S&P 500 holds above uptrend. Key S&P 500 levels: support at 1680-1663 & resistance at 1696.55. Cloud support: 1658-1635. Next resistance: 1730-1747. Volume & breadth bullish; 10-day ARMS & up volume vs. down volume oversold; Risk: Triple bearish divergences."
ReplyDelete"Risk: Triple bearish divergences"
DeleteKind of like a triple dog dare?
CP> Who are you quoting?
DeleteMerrill Lynch (BACML)
DeleteAdded some more PEIX and DATE at $3.86 and $6.77 this morning as well.
ReplyDeleteWow. MY holding up very well. I sold that sucker at like $2.50 avg thinking it was overbought. Just consolidating for another run. YRCW looks like it's gearing up for another run...I think that's another one for the buy and hold group. Put a small chunk away and I think in a few years you could have a nice gain.
DeleteSo, assuming the Congreaserial dog and pony show is concluded within the next month, will the FED resume pursuit of TAPER this December?
ReplyDeleteANGO - I coulda' bought the morning dip, instead of being a deer in the headlights.
ReplyDeleteSomeone made a lot on that dip in ORBC back in May huh?
ReplyDeleteYeah, they did, I coulda too!!!!!!! :)
DeleteJapan - So maybe if this country continues shifting energy consumption to coal, hunting whales, tuna, and harvesting illegal Amazonian timber, their environmental footprint will be reduced and their economy will become robust?
ReplyDeleteLTBR - Does this chart deserve watching?
ReplyDeleteWell that was quick. Took a drubbing in DGAZ. Sold at $13.58. Ugh
ReplyDeleteRed Socks lookin' pretty good, eh?
ReplyDeleteJust stay home, we'll send your paycheck to you!
ReplyDeleteNBG - Holy crap, is Greece leaving the EU?????
ReplyDeleteRYTNX closed @ 47.19 at the 1030 window. Basis was 47.35 (opened at the 1030 window last Friday). A loss of 0.34% on 50% of the portfolio, or -0.17% overall. Bulls appear pretty confident Boehner will cave in, but I can't trade on that. Whereas taking the minor loss allows me to weigh the next pitch with no directional bias.
ReplyDeleteI'm betting against that loser party!
DeleteI took a small position in GPRC today at $1.93...not the greatest entry up 8% today but the valuation is dirt cheap. I've been following this one for a while. They are in the recycling business in China. Growth has been slow and steady for a while. They have a book value of around 4X their current stock price and they trade at 2X EPS. Like pretty much every other China stock they were crushed on fears of fraud. I has some level of comfort that they're not fraudulent but you never know. I do think the tide has turned for Chinese ADRs in general and despite the moves recently I think there's a lot more room to go up for these companies. Management seems to be pretty conservative from the transcripts I've read and they're in a long term secular bull market (improving environmental waste in China).
ReplyDeleteAnother Chinese company that is doing well is SORL, as brought to our attention by David.
DeleteGood industry - automotive which is growing around the world and especially in China; Good valuation - P/E of 5, P/B of.4, have had some good wins.
Again, I think it is not fraudulent as they switched auditors and nothing came out, but would feel better if they started paying a dividend (they can afford to) and show some of their cash is real.
Also, chart trying to make a 2 year high and has a massive h/s bottom if you buy into those.
DeleteSORL was one I was looking at. That and CAAS.
DeleteCCL - Alright, I'm in @ $32.20 for the jinx!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteGood God, with all the bearish slant concerning the subject you'd never know PIIGS were flying!
ANV- Of course.
ReplyDeleteYes, of course!
DeleteCADC - Up a mere 14+%.......
ReplyDeleteSure feels like the market is ready to roll if Washington would just get out of the way.
ReplyDeleteThe risk is that they will keep the fight up too long and the market will have to give them a wakeup call with a large drop. Like when the first vote on TARP failed and the market dropped 8%, then the next vote went through.
Could be rotation, taking capital gains and moving on.
DeleteDo you guys know how to set up TWTR so the comments stream?
ReplyDeleteYRCW- What's the stop?
ReplyDeleteYRCW @16.94
ReplyDeleteInteresting. Did you take a big position? I guess the stop would be below the $14ish area it bottomed out at? I don't know. I like it longer term regardless.
DeleteTaking a small loss at the 1030 window once more proves to have been the prudent move. RYTNX closed the 345 window @ 46.81, with index futures now vulnerable to further overnight pressure.
ReplyDelete