Tuesday, November 26, 2013
11/26/13 Black Hawk Down
What a difference five years can make. November 2008 we were all struggling to stay afloat amidst a relentless bear market. By 2010 most of us had recovered. We learned lessons that to this day serve us well.
We now have a bear market redux in miners.
Life is full of second chances. But it hands out only so many. To survive a -40% drawdown, only to be met with a -60% hit in the mining sector? It's quiet on the Western front- understandably so. Is capitulation around the corner? I don't pretend to know. But we'll likely recognize it when it arrives.
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One post. And it's a bearish post. A travel agency now stands where once thrived a crowded bar. An outpost.
ReplyDeletehttp://investing.covestor.com/2013/11/gold-miner-stocks-biggest-turkey-2013
ReplyDeleteYeah, unfortunately I was caught in way too much of the drawdown at the outpost.
ReplyDeleteNice insider buying at GMCR
ReplyDeleteJust today's? Pretty small.
Delete70 degrees here today. Just saying. ..
DeleteCasino parking open...
Deletehaha. we'll be back in SD shortly.
Deletehttp://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=340&s=it_latestbuys
Looks like $1.3 Million insider buys on 11/25
Top value fund Tweedy Browne likes BSBR:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gurufocus.com/news/236342/tweedy-browne-comments-on-banco-santander
BSBR - It's now or never, I think (we're close, IMO).......
ReplyDeleteELTK - Printed circuit boards, this one's running looks like.
ReplyDeleteEEM @ 41.69.
ReplyDeleteRYWVX @ the 1030am est window.
Using 'tof rationale,' I think EEM is a buy here. Absolutely no one is talking about emerging markets..
ReplyDeleteI notice no one is talking at all at the Sis. That may mean miners are a buy here.
DeleteEPI @ 16.30.
DeleteBLOX- Hell of a gap fill/open gap play.
ReplyDeleteAre these the guys who connect toasters to the internet so you can toast your sandwich from an iphone, or am I thinking of Panasonic?
DeleteYou can get TLM cheaper here than Ican did.
ReplyDeleteSame for NUAN I thought TLM was junk?
DeleteNLY - Guess I shoulda' loaded the boat at yesterday's close, for a flip.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Okay, if by some stroke of luck this one drops to near $206, I'm gonna be adding.
ReplyDeleteAMSC - Wow, this thing's still trading!
ReplyDeleteAA per UBS
ReplyDeleteSum of the parts valuation
􀂄 Despite improved productivity, weak pricing has hurt shareholders Despite realizing $5.5bn in cumulative productivity gains over 2009-2012 and
a further $825mn YTD (already exceeding their own $750mn goal for 2013), AA’s shares have declined by 27% over the past three-years on the back
of a 23% decline in the LME aluminum price.
􀂄 Midstream and downstream operations have consistently delivered value While AA strives to optimize those parts of its business that it can
control (particularly upstream) in the face of general commodity price pressure, midstream results have been solid and downstream results have
achieved record ATOI and EBITDA margins on strong demand for value-added products. Year-to-date, midstream and downstream operations have
contributed ~80% of total ATOI.
􀂄 Market now pondering standalone segment values; SOTP> than the whole Given the much improved ATOI from midstream and downstream,
some investors have questioned if AA should be valued using a sum of the parts (SOTP) methodology despite the poor aluminum price which is acting
as an overhang. Our SOTP analysis (within) indicates AA could be worth between $9.00-$12.00/share under UBS prices in 2014 before any holding
company discount. However, given the inherent optionality of aluminum this SOTP value increases to ~$13.00-$17.00/share assuming $0.95/lb LME
all else being equal.
􀂄 Valuation: target price up marginally on updated alumina division outlook Our $10.00 target (prior: $9.50) is derived from a 60/40 weighting to
our 6.0x EV/EBITDA and 1.0x P/NAV valuations. Given the implied return, we maintain our Neutral rating.
thorough research. i still think its as dumb as it gets to net asset value.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletewouldn't be surprised to see BALT close the gap yet again. i bought a bunch yesterday and am continually adding on weakness. Up to 40% position now.
ReplyDeleteHappy Thanksgiving to all you boys and girls.
ReplyDeleteIs Boston getting to cold? and can you boogie board the wedge in (SD?) w/o a wet suit or would you freeze your tush off?
yeah it's cold up here...although its warm today. we're actually going to be moving back to SD way sooner than we thought because we found out my wife is pregnant right when we were moving. we just want to be back near her parents. our lease expires in june which is 2 months after she is due and that would be a mess if we moved then. now we're just trying to get out of the lease. fun fun fun.
Deletehow are you doing?
Congratulation's on the addition to your family and good luck with the lease and move. Over here we expect to close escrow Dec 20th. It is sure going to feel strange not having a home in Hawaii after 38 years. So it looks like we will be celebrating new Year's in AZ and looking at different areas for a new home, should be fun haha.
DeleteCongrat's again to you and your wife TOF.
Thanks man. That's one crazy move. so you don't have a home yet to move to? where are you looking to move?
DeleteSD has to be warmer than Redondo, and I never wore a wetsuit in Redondo. I didn't swim during winter, either, after October to May or June, I think it was.
DeleteIt's not a tropical island that's always over 75 degrees F, in coastal Cali you'll occasionally see some ice on the ground during colder winters, that's not what I call beach weather although you can still do outdoor activities.
Yeah it is crazy especially when I look at google maps and see all desert. You could say its a compromise Phyllis's family is west coast mine east. We looked around in June at three areas and will look at five more in Jan. I guess you could say it ranges from Tucson, Phoenix, and Prescott.
DeleteWe sorta of have a preference for a 55 community and I integra block house construction preferred.
Anyway enjoy the Turkey.
Thanks CP, I told my friend he could have my boogie board and fins, then I remembered I always want to ride the Wedge. I know I was crazy enough to do it when I was young, not sure now have to see the break. Anyhow he said without a wet suit I will freeze and that most surfer's where wet suits.
DeleteI think he wants my board. Cheers mate.
I see a lot of surfers in Santa Cruz wearing wet suits, it was never necessary during summer in Redondo, it's colder up in northern Cali.
DeleteI don't bother with beach equipment anymore, I just body surf. I'd guess the Cali surf won't be quite what you're used to but dunno for sure as I've only flown over Hawaii and never landed..
I'm having difficulty ignoring PEIX...........
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
ReplyDeleteWell, can't say I didn't issue a warning.
Yep, plenty of money was pigeon-holed on that entire farce.
DeleteYou did, you did. It is such a small sector that flow direction just accentuates the moves.
DeleteI gave up on my last sell on AEM which gave back all the upside of its last earnings spike. Its day will come again.
Gobble Gobble is what happen to many sista accounts I'm sure.
CCJ - Nice move this month, I'm kinda surprised.
ReplyDeleteWow, San Diego to Boston to San Diego in a matter of weeks. Sounds like the Sixties!
ReplyDeletei know man. eats at me as much as selling my 33% position in CECO at $2.7 only to watch it soar to $6 a week later. ahh such is life. happy wife, happy life so they say. we need her to be ready for the baby and stress free. i hope the landlord is willing to bend a little.
DeleteNow it's snowing here......
ReplyDeleteSLB, somebody wants out of this and has a bigfoot. I have been wanting this since I sold around 92ish.
ReplyDeletePretty weak here at the moment, 85 would be willing to bite.
I know only about $89 above small cap status.
Scale in here at 87.17 for a start.
Deleteoff 87.74
DeleteNail in the coffin:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-not-gold-has-the-midas-touch-2013-11-27
Now that's the ultimate mind warp.
13 to947 wow
DeleteI see this as just gambling and probably a pyramid scheme.
DeleteMy sister-in-law's brother has been living pretty meagerly for years just going from odd job to odd job. he put all of his money into Bitcoin at like $25 and now is able to live a little more comfortably.
DeleteGambling? Pyramid scheme? That's why it's kicking ---, bro!
DeleteSold CCL and KB today. Made about 10% on CCL and lost less than 1% on KB.
ReplyDeleteIn hindsight, it was dumb to buy KB after it's big move upwards (I try never to do that) and I should have sold when I got lucky and it went over $40, but I can see this going to $50, so I got greedy and held too long.
I'm just cleaning up the portfolio a bit and raising some cash and looking for new stocks or maybe a pullback to redeploy.
Tax loss selling season should be starting soon, so may get some good opportunities in the next few weeks.
hard to sell losers this year though. we know which ones those are which probably means they sell off even more.
DeleteMCP should be good for tax loss selling.
DeleteBought some POT 31.29ish, this one is somewhat beat up over the cartel break-up Urakali.
ReplyDeletePXD, any thoughts
ReplyDeleteSamsung Note 3, anyone here use it? thinking about getting one.
ReplyDeleteHIMX off @ 10.35. Today's +10% gain is unsustainable, IMO.
ReplyDeletealmost 3x's 10 day ave vol
Delete(a) EEM currently bidding 41.90. RYWVX filled @ 14.04 at the 1030 trading window. Leveraged funds can be tricky to play, as the pricing is often difficult to deduce. EEM closed up +0.34% yesterday, yet RYWVX closed down -0.36%. (Based on early morning weakness in EEM, I had expected RYWVX to price below 14.)
ReplyDelete(b) Miners. Spot gold down -4 to 1238, and GDX trading flat. Every call for a bottom in the miners in the past two years has been wrong.
(c) Bonds recovering after an early spike in yields.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/another-ominous-view-gold-mining-140053577.html
ReplyDeleteHere's one target for GDX> the 2008 lows around 18.
16.42 was day low. Closed at 18.69.
DeleteThanks, bro. A drop to 16.42 followed by a close at 18.69 sounds like the kind of capitulation day I'm looking for.
DeleteTele- I have the Note II and love it.
ReplyDeleteis that an ipad knockoff? do they allow u to view pages with flash?
DeleteThanks Mark! TOF its a phaplet/phone and is what BIDU CEO uses. My friend loves his Ipad but complains about no flash.
DeleteCurrent bull rally for some perspective:
ReplyDeletehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/BaGjDxTCIAA2e_3.jpg:large
I kind of had an epiphany today. GNK and EGLE are the same exact setups as JKS and CSIQ from late March. Nasty pullbacks then up 8 fold over the next 7 months. I think Mark is on to something with spreading the money out. BALT might be a 3 bagger in that scenario with a rising dividend, but if you want the huge home run, go with GNK or EGLE
ReplyDeleteThe Killing probably isn't for everyone, but it tops the list of NFLX films and/or miniseries that I've watched.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnn.com/2013/11/15/showbiz/the-killing-netflix-revival/index.html
The first three seasons can be streamed, if you're interested.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. RYWVX closes the 345 pm window @ 14.02 (0.02 lower than the 1030 window), despite the fact that EEM closed @ 41.92 (compared to 41.79 @ 1030 am). Go figure. Now I know the Beatles were ahead of their time
ReplyDeleteI decided to buy some GNK after hours at $2.39. What the eff? I'm not sure if you guys are aware but they earned $4 a share in 2010 when rates were half of what they peaked at in 2007/8. I think BDI rates will be very solid for a while as shippers are far more cautious about over ordering ships for the next several years. Can GNK earn $4 a share again? Who knows. But there's always a chance they do and if they do this is a 20 bagger from $2.39. Even a small position can make you a fortune. I plan to pick up some EGLE and some GNK over the next two weeks. I'm thinking of getting each to about 7% of the port. A 10-bagger in either position adds 70% to the total port. I think it can be done.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I like about BALT is the recent insider purchase. Sure, it was only 15,000 shares. But think about it. You're a director working at this company. You probably have a wife and kids. The usual expenses> mortgage, schools/college, retirement planning. You probably earn a decent salary. But no way will you throw 75k into company stock unless you've thought it over and it makes good financial sense.
DeleteSpot silver still trending in a range that includes my favorite years, '67 thru '69.
ReplyDeleteI've been approved by Glass for a purchase. $1500.
ReplyDeletethat product reminds me too much of that optigrab:
Deletehttp://movieclips.com/Zbt2-the-jerk-movie-the-opti-grab/
How do you 'trade' bitcoins?
ReplyDeletedude - i haven't a clue. nor do i care to know. i've tried to understand it and i keep thinking it's a total joke but obviously there's value in it.
Deletejust that response alone means it probably continues higher for all we know about the madness of crowds
DeleteI think you have to join a 'club' which is like joining an exchange. But how to merchants that except bitcoins adjust there pricing. One day a beer is one bit, the next it's 1/100th of a bit.
DeleteTOF- OK buddy. Give me a little general market pull back and I'm putting together a little basket of shippers whether they pull back or not.
ReplyDelete20%ish
DeleteHoping the following stories qualify as 'it sounds sort of bad but it's good' news:
ReplyDelete(a) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brazils-central-bank-raises-interest-rate-to-10-2013-11-27-194855213
(b) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brazils-vale-to-pay-96-billion-in-taxes-2013-11-27-20485196
(c) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/santander-mexico-proposes-1-billion-plus-dividend-2013-11-27-204851815
For me they qualify.
DeleteBut then again I'm reading them upside down.
DeleteMight get some energy smallcaps in the tax loss selling this year, at least Canadian ones. They are cheap and beaten up.
ReplyDeleteI'm a bit concerned about the price of oil and all the North Dakota drilling, but with Warren Buffet making his big buy of XOM, and his excellent record of making good long term decisions (saw a stat today which showed the market is a double since he wrote that "Buy American, I am" article in 2008), might be worth buying a couple and holding for a few years.
Vale turned out to be 'good news.' Here's hoping the same happens with PBR tomorrow: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brazils-petrobras-may-end-costly-fuel-subsidy-2013-11-28?link=MW_home_latest_news
ReplyDeletecheapy popped in at the sis.
ReplyDelete