Friday, November 29, 2013
11/29/13 Take The Money And Run
Here's what I see.
(a) Reprint of a June 2007 article:
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/bull-market/2007/06/25/
(b) Market momentum is worrisome:
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL
I actually like emerging markets at current valuations. But should the US indexes correct, the only backstop offered by EEM is a lesser pullback. For now, I'll take the money and run.
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BDI up huge yesterday...bottom sure as hell looks in
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
EPI off @ 16.65.
ReplyDeleteEEM off @ 42.20.
One of my Canadian stocks, ATB.TO, getting a buyout this morning at $24. Bought it in 2011 for $13.06. They make healthcare supplements like a mini-GNC. Was one of my largest holdings, so good news.
ReplyDeleteBut will be a good hunk of cash to redeploy, and was pretty conservative, consumer-oriented holding, so don't want to replace with the Canadian small-cap energy companies I am looking at. A lot of these consumer type stocks have moved up well the last couple of years, especially those that are good dividend payors, so may be hard to find a good one, but I don't want to do any excessive risk taking at this time.
That's one helluva Christmas present, BB!
DeleteGood work, BB!
DeleteI agree. Nice stuff. I have only had one buyout of a stock I owned...it was Intermix which owned Myspace, in 2005. At the time I had all of my money it in. Within a year it was valued at 15 times what it was bought out for.
DeleteComment to follow commentary.
ReplyDeleteI have a post in mind, but no time to compose right now.
DeleteI bought more GNK at $2.57. Avg is $2.43. I think it makes sense to have some really risky shippers if my belief about the entire sector comes true because these will go up 15 fold and could really help out the overall return of my portfolio. I'm aiming for 7% positions in 2 of them, probably EGLE and GNK.
ReplyDeleteAfter finally restarting my browser, I can read TT!
ReplyDeleteNice day for BALT so far.....
Don Cox expects gold will move up on good econ news if I recall, right? I kinda respect DC but not gold.
ReplyDeleteEEM now 42.31. Lack of faith.
ReplyDeleteIDX - At some point this one should stop falling, right? So it's just a matter of nailing a near bottom.....
ReplyDeleteVALE/ PBR confirming the 'good news' hypothesis.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Don't forget about this one.....
ReplyDeleteHIMX @ 9.89...
ReplyDeleteRYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) off at the 1030 am trading window.
ReplyDeleteProbably get screwed on Monday when the BRICs take off.
DeleteNWLI - Hopefully they aren't done stop sweeping.
ReplyDeleteZGNX rocking lately.
ReplyDelete2nd - I assign you the task of calling the bottom for IDX, you're the perfect candidate!
ReplyDeleteThanks for pointing out Indonesia, bro. I've never followed that one.
DeleteAdded more GNK at $2.62
ReplyDeleteHIMX off 10.11...
ReplyDeleteAGO - Looks like bear flag forming, we might even witness an attempt to close the gap up? I realize this doesn't seem likely but I can dream.....
ReplyDeleteI jinxed myself last time, but I think BALT is finally ready. Goes to $5.4 Monday then new 52 week highs on Tuesday
ReplyDeleteI need the fake knockout, maybe it doesn't happen......
DeleteIt's gonna be hard for that to happen given the jump in spot rates.
DeleteUHS - Just like HII, climb, climb, climb...... At least ISRG is kinda following the plan.....
ReplyDeleteINTC - Is that a cup on the 1 year chart?
ReplyDeleteNWLI - I think we might be witnessing the knockout on this one.
ReplyDelete"Europe Economic Weekly: Europe year ahead: new risks
ReplyDelete58 minutes ago
When will the ECB move again- The chances of rate cuts and negative territories will rise as inflation struggles to recover. For 2014, we expect a timid Euro area recovery of 0.8% GDP growth, mostly driven by exports and less fiscal drag. In the UK, with better credit, housing, labour market and global conditions, we anticipate robust 2.7% GDP growth in 2014."
"Thailand Economic Watch: October data: “broadly stable”"
"Alumina Limited: Gove shut is +ve for alumina market in medium term"
BACML
Updated the main post.
ReplyDeletefwiw, I now believe 2014 will be a stellar year. But it will require a significant correction in order to launch.
DeleteIf 2014 is a good year my guess is we get a 5% pullback right off the bat in January. We will get a 9% or so pullback sometime between June and October as well. But we will end up 15 to 20%.
DeleteYou would certainly think a correction is due and it feels right, but perhaps not:
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/next-10-correction-could-5-years-away-135556361.html
That's part of the reason I think next year we get a 9% correction. Lots of people have recent memory bias. Just because X happened from 2000 to 2012 doesn't mean it happens again anytime soon.
DeleteI agree. A correction is waiting in the wings. Usual theatrics apply.
DeleteGlobal markets are in fireworks mode. Heck, even GDX is up +2.6%. Zero comments/outbursts at the Sis.
ReplyDeleteProof of concept.
DeleteIf you want knockout blows for entry points then look no further than GNK/EGLE and even the coal stocks are an option (although I think the industry won't recover nearly as quickly as in previous bull markets but Nat Gas going to $5 will certainly help).
ReplyDeleteEEM> Left money on the table. As usual.
ReplyDeleteAlright, alright. I should have opened BALT, GNK and EGLE on Wednesday. My bad.
ReplyDeleteYou have plenty of time to do so still. I stand by my call that BALT trades at $50 with a $3 to $4 dividend at some point over the next few years.
DeleteOK. Point taken.
DeleteTGIBF - "Post Office is always opened on the day after Thanksgiving, aka Black Friday, and there is mail service on that Friday and the Saturday thereafter."
ReplyDeleteBALT - Oh yeah, I forgot this is the time of year China loads up prior to new year........ Crap.
ReplyDeleteI assume you all know the market closes in 43 minutes.
ReplyDeleteYep, right now, I wanna see what BALT does Monday, Sure looks like it's breaking out...
DeleteStill a bearish mantra being hyperventilated out there.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Last chance to buy under $6.50, IMO
ReplyDeleteAll of these Brazilian stocks are right around a decisive point...SID, GGB, EWZ, BSBR.
DeleteSomeone stop me from opening a position in TZA @ 18.
ReplyDeleteGo out for a walk. Come back in after the close. If you still want to open it you can do so afterhours.
DeleteTrue.
DeleteCP - BALT once again went up to the downward trend line from the September highs and hit a ceilling. A pullback into the close could give the appearance of another pullback coming. Traders are getting greedy so maybe we do pull back yet again.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/marketpulse/BALT
I'd love to see another one.
Yeah, I'm trying not to get too confident and allow myself to chase price, it's really tough.
DeleteWhoa. DJIA turning red.
ReplyDeleteshould've bought TZA!
DeleteWith GDX up +2% today, Goldcorp still barely above its 52-wk low.
ReplyDeleteUn----ing real.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/11/29/bitcoin-hits-record-1242-as-it-nears-value-of-ounce-of-gold/
Screw it. I'm getting long Disney Dollars.
DeleteLOL, WTF is a bitcoin, what a joke..... (worse joke than gold, who gets paid a salary in gold or bitcoins?), Send a bitpayment to your insurance broker and watch him jack you up.
DeleteVIX still hasn't broken below the March 2013 lows. The bears won't give up.
ReplyDeleteDang, I saw 1813 and almost jumped on a triple short too but not gonna go there just 'cause of a few traders out there ripping prices around in thin volume. ie: I don't think today's close had any negative connotations whatsoever.
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling this week was THE CHANCE to get long for the upward explosion next week, we'll see....
ReplyDeleteSPX - has a bit of a HnS topping possibility here ...
Deletehttp://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/
"The SPX reversed right where (v)=.618*(i). We'll see if a right shoulder forms early next week on a bounce or if this was just another trap for the bears."
Bear trap, IMO, cautious optimism. I say this b/c it's my observation that global economic growth is gaining momentum. I think markets could have a long way to go from here, this growth cycle may be quite substantial.
DeleteGeneral Aviation innovation and development to receive a new tail-wind:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Law-To-Force-Certification-Changes-Enacted221047-1.html
Always wait for a pullback?
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PACB+Interactive#symbol=pacb;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
I'm interested again.
STML looks good on a monthly.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I kinda like that chart too.
DeleteI heard adds on the radio this weekend for engineer jobs at OCZ.
ReplyDeleteOh boy that one's beat up, article says filing for BK? Looks like trouble.
DeleteBALT - Looks like $4.71 is the latest price to try getting in.
ReplyDeleteNSC - $7.65 bull flag, is it worth $95?
ReplyDeleteCCL - Thinking of offing this one, seems to have run out of steam.
ReplyDeleteIDX - She's up, fellas....
ReplyDelete$22.71 is the price to beat, looks like.
DeleteGDXJ- Anyone who bought Friday is now underwater.
ReplyDeleteRight, same is true for anyone who took that shiny hook two years running now. Some are gut-hooked.
Deletei added to GNK at $2.52 with an eye toward $25 in a year.
ReplyDeleteI knew you would.
DeleteIt's like going to a flea market and buying a picture that looks like a van gogh but is probably worthless
DeleteI should take art classes!!!!
DeletePicked up more BALT at $5.02
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index is now 34% higher on average this quarter than last quarter. Avg price is 1,738 vs 1,293 last quarter. With this in mind BALT should earn around $0.02 EPS all things being equal and taking into account roughly 10% higher carrying capacity and 15% higher operating expenses, depreciation, and int expense (associated with 2 new vessels coming on board this quarter).
DeleteThe action is obviously in much higher spot rates. A doubling of rates along with 70% higher capacity vs last quarter from new ships coming online and the associated expenses translates into $0.27 EPS fully diluted. That would be spot rates of 2,590 or about 39% higher than current rates. BALT would be paying a $0.20 to $0.25 quarterly dividend and probably be trading at around $15 to $18.
I'm pretty sure you're right but I have some kind of feeling I can get these lower for some reason.....
DeleteFRO - Wonder if this one will be the Iranian crude transporter of choice?
FSYS - This one has been accused of doing business in Iran also.
Iran has a history of being a tough customer.....
Yeah probably. I'm just adding on down days. Been building a position for the past 6 weeks. They can eff with as much as they like.
DeleteFrom Saut today:
ReplyDelete"The call for this week: While time may be running out for the bears (this week should tell), time is not running out to start making your tax-loss bounce list. Remember, some stocks that have not performed this year will be sold for tax losses to offset gains taken in other positions during 2013. To that point, there was a story in the weekend Wall Street Journal titled “Coal Plants Shut By Marcellus Glut.” The gist of the story is that coal-fired utility plants are shutting down because natural gas is so cheap in certain areas of the country, and electric prices are so weak, that nobody can make a profit. The story reminded me of when “they” were closing copper mines like the Anaconda Copper Mine in Lyon, Nevada back in 1978, and all the copper stocks were screaming buys. Over the next few weeks I will be looking at the beaten up coal stocks, as well as other tax-loss bounce candidates."
Jeez...AAPL is on pace to have almost 40% of its market cap in cash by next September. Almost $200 Billion in cash. $200 Billion! That's ridiculous for the largest company in the world.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to know what they're gonna do with the cash, something futuristic-tech or build a castle?
DeleteCP, not sure if you saw, but I sold my CCL last week too. It was too cheap on the sell-off and due for a bounce and I think it does well long term, but I think from here it's just going to be a slow steady grind as they prove out over a few quarters that things are back on track.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I just offed the remainder of mine too, $36.08 for a 12% gain. :) Thanks for sniffing that one out, it helped!
DeletePaid my property taxes, along with a healthy grocery store trip.
DeleteTBT - This one should break out, rates can't possibly remain this low for much longer.
ReplyDeleteVE - This one's been coming back to us, with luck might close the Aug gap up....?
ReplyDeleteBSBR - We've gotta be getting close...
ReplyDeleteThanksgiving week stats:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/12/2/post-thanksgiving-hangover.html
Gap it up, pound it down.
ReplyDeleteGDXJ - Back in crash mode today, eh?
ReplyDeleteLooks like it's headed for $15......
DeleteTWEETER - Why isn't this thing taking off? I think it's a much better idea than FB ever was.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteGGN - How about that....
ReplyDelete