On September 13, 2013, the board of directors declared a special dividend in the amount of $98,685,000, or $66.56 per Gyrodyne share payable December 30th, of which approximately $68,000,000, or $45.86 per share, will be paid in cash. The balance of the Special Dividend will be payable in the form of cash proceeds from any further asset dispositions effected prior to payment of the dividend, notes payable by Gyrodyne, interests in one or more limited liability companies to which Gyrodyne may transfer its remaining assets (or into which it may merge), or a combination of such forms at the discretion of our board of directors.
SLV now bidding 19.01. SLW bidding 20.32. CEF bidding 13.39.
I've learned to minimize losses. The (in)ability to maximize gains is my greatest weakness.
This morning's panic drop may well launch an extended rally in miners (remaining weak hands having exited the sector). The early morning reversal may also represent nothing more than shorts covering their positions.
PM's - Thing is, there have been plenty of examples of waterfall events where price still hasn't recovered, but of course this occurred at higher prices than today's.
It could always rally but bigger picture is the inverse of the skepticism being bullish for equities. Where is mom and pop hiding? Gold and silver of course! Fox News said you can't trust the govt and their excessive money printing. Fiat money is doomed and mom and pop know this!
My best guess is you still see some more pain for emerging markets in the 1st quarter and the bottom is hit when we take a 9.9% hit in the US market. Then the US market ends up 10% and the emerging markets go up 25% from the bottom in Q1. I've learned through experience that I can't predict 1 year out, let alone 1 day out. So as far as Thursday goes, a lot of advil and water to counter the hangover.
The one advantage us 'old guys' have is experience, which occasionally translates into 'wisdom' and patience. Apart from bonds, miners, and (to a lesser extent) EM, I just don't see much worth buying.
(a) 2013 would have been a great year to buy and hold...the securities of developed economies (Europe, Japan, and especially the US). (b) Holding bonds, emerging markets and/or commodities was a losing game. (c) On the other hand, buying on panic and selling on exuberance works in all market environments.
I don't know what will happen in 2014 (nor does anyone else). But we can count on moments of panic, and moments of exuberance. So for now, I'll stick with what's worked for me.
Speaking of panic, we witnessed one in metals this morning, and we may be seeing one momentarily in bonds (TLT dropping -1.3% to 101.17 as I write). For me, it's all about minimizing losses and capital preservation. Once we hit retirement, the game's over. So you could say I'm preparing for the end game by practicing the art of conservative trading.
The mid-morning exuberance/short-covering in miners is now waning, with SLV bidding 18.65, SLW 20.08, GDX 20.97, and CEF 13.26. So my morning exit points now appear to have been at least 'a good idea.'
I think they'll be even better when SLV is in the mid teens and so on...
I'm looking at a 20 year chart of Silver that shows the spot price of $19.4 currently, which is almost 300% above the average from 1994 to 2004. While it's down more than 50% from the highs, the highs in this chart look like one of those euphoric blowoff tops, with Silver having gone up 10 fold from 2003 to 2011. Perhaps its just building strength for another major move up. I really can't tell but it seems to me that the easy money has already passed by. This is all above me though. I'm really not any good at figuring out how to value these metals.
TOF - Everyone piled into PM's due to the balance sheet recession, which has/is dissipating and growth is returning, the economic growth rate could become a global phenomenon with a magnitude never experienced before. That's the impression the market action is giving me, considering the record highs every week.
BALT chart is almost identical to the CSIQ chart from April / May 2013 time frame. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSIQ&p=D&st=2012-12-03&en=(today)&id=p94690323338
Obviously the results were ridiculous afterward for CSIQ and to imply the same thing because of similar charts would be a mistake. But it goes to show you the potential upside there is. No one knows for sure what the spot rates will be but given how suppressed they were while the market ripped to new highs, now that they're breaking out I wouldn't be shocked to see the BDI at 4,000 in 6 months. That translates into $2 to $2.50 EPS for BALT.
Taking (winning) positions off the table too quickly appears to be my 'nemesis.' But is that really the case?
I last closed RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) December 2 @ 14.27 for a one-day gain of +1.8%. Based on 'today's experience,' I might have decided to hold for further gains, no? The following day (December 3), it plunged -3.7% to 13.74. The fund went on to close as low as 13.12 (-8%!) before rebounding recently. Today's close of 13.88 still leaves it -2.7% shy of my original exit.
What about taking losses quickly? No argument there. Closing RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) on December 24 @ 14.07 for a one-day loss of -1% still looks good. Yesterday's bounce in Treasurys came close (14.05), but today's sell off has the fund back to a 13-handle @ 13.94.
Sure, it's disappointing to have missed the recent bounces in EEM and TLT.
No strategy works in all markets. And it would be a mistake to allow 'recency bias' to take me off my game.
Sometimes I think of trading as a treacherous pursuit, much like mountain climbing. There is some room for complacency, but not much. Remain focused, and plan each step carefully. It can be exhilarating when you make headway.
As an aside. I've forwarded a lot of my comments over the years to family, only to discover that the prevailing response is 'Thanks, but to be honest I don't understand any of it.' It's not unlike someone forwarding to me the finer points of golf.
With the onset of the next bear market, that may change. But I understand.
We're fortunate to at least recognize 'investing' for what it is. We can pay someone to do it for us. We can place bets on index funds, which ultimately rob us in the form of foregone percentages (might as well be paying protection money). Or we can play. But it's kind of a contact sport.
Well, I'm back in Boston to pack the house and move on back to Cali. Wife and son are back west hunting down a house. Life has a fun way of making things interesting. However, I always keep in the back of my mind that things could be far, far worse. Growing up on my mom's salary of $18,000 in the 80's has helped keep many things in perspective for me.
For my sake I hope 2014 is half as good as 2013. Best of luck to you all in 2014! As soon as I get a break I'm going to sit down to a tall glass of Di Majo Norante Ramitello 2009:
Opened a small position in SLV @ 18.32...
ReplyDeleteAdding at 18.18...
DeleteGDX @ 20.58...
DeleteLove the smell of panic. I'm sticking to one of my recent revelations, however> keep it small in order to remain on an even keel.
DeleteGLD bidding at a new 52-wk low! SLV not far behind.
DeleteScaling into CEF @ 13.01...
DeleteTaking their IRS loss deduction maybe?
DeleteLove the smell of napalm in the morning, regardless of source. What provokes panic is less important than taking advantage of it.
DeleteMaybe hedge funds dumping before the end of the year so they don't show their investors they held the worst performing metal of the year (SLV)?
DeleteDid tax loss selling have to be a few days ago? Settlement date?
DeleteI think ya nailed that one. MUX sure popped up last week, hadn't seen that till now.
Delete"Settlement date?" I don't think so, but once in a while I'm wrong ya know! Seems to me it's last day of year, regardless.
DeleteBDC - Yeah TOF, I don't understand the action in this one I guess, it's all futures contracts that aren't reflecting the volatility?
ReplyDeleteDBA - The DBA is pretty beat up here too..
DeleteDBC - Not BDC, typo.
DeleteTwitter, not Tweeter?
DeletePACB- There's you boner...eh, flager.
ReplyDeletePopped my tweeter, SCHWING!!!!!!!!
DeleteGYRO- This is a wired one...
ReplyDeleteOn September 13, 2013, the board of directors declared a special dividend in the amount of $98,685,000, or $66.56 per Gyrodyne share payable December 30th, of which approximately $68,000,000, or $45.86 per share, will be paid in cash. The balance of the Special Dividend will be payable in the form of cash proceeds from any further asset dispositions effected prior to payment of the dividend, notes payable by Gyrodyne, interests in one or more limited liability companies to which Gyrodyne may transfer its remaining assets (or into which it may merge), or a combination of such forms at the discretion of our board of directors.
Liquidation distribution apparently, looks like shareholders are down ~$3 at this point?
DeleteMan, who the hell knows. Crazy tax issue too.
DeleteSLV off @ 18.49. GDX off @ 20.90. CEF off @ 13.19. SLW (opened around 19.60 premarket) off @ 20.10.
ReplyDeleteNo faith, bros. No faith.
DeleteClosed that POS FTEK @ 7.40...
ReplyDeleteLOL- I was just looking at it!!!
DeleteBSBR - It's summer down there.......
ReplyDeleteSCCO - Pushing $29, that's +17%.........LOL shoulda-coulda
ReplyDeleteI consistently underestimate the power of market moves.
ReplyDeleteSLV now bidding 19.01. SLW bidding 20.32. CEF bidding 13.39.
DeleteI've learned to minimize losses. The (in)ability to maximize gains is my greatest weakness.
This morning's panic drop may well launch an extended rally in miners (remaining weak hands having exited the sector). The early morning reversal may also represent nothing more than shorts covering their positions.
PM's - Thing is, there have been plenty of examples of waterfall events where price still hasn't recovered, but of course this occurred at higher prices than today's.
ReplyDeleteFTEK hit 6.82?
ReplyDeleteFTEK @ 7.18 (half of a small position).
DeleteScrew it. Off @ 7.22. Not sure why I'm playing.
DeleteExtended rally in miners? Nah. That's called a short covering rally. The real show hasn't even started
ReplyDeleteI hope you're right. I'd hate to be the guy who bought at the absolute low of the year, and sold out shortly after.
DeleteIt could always rally but bigger picture is the inverse of the skepticism being bullish for equities. Where is mom and pop hiding? Gold and silver of course! Fox News said you can't trust the govt and their excessive money printing. Fiat money is doomed and mom and pop know this!
DeleteI agree that gold bugs are still defending the Alamo. Not so sure there isn't rampant bullishness re the US indexes.
DeleteExcellent article by saut starting after the whole what I got right and wrong part
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
Mid-morning lull.
ReplyDeleteScaling into FXI @ 38.07 + EWA @ 24.38.
Any opinions on Thursday's open? Up, down, flat?
ReplyDeleteReopening SLW @ 20.10...
ReplyDeleteTLT dropping through the floor.
ReplyDeleteClosed all positions (EWA, FXI, SLW) for small losses.
ReplyDeleteI'm trying to sort what might happen on Thursday. Lots of cross currents, no? No one said trading was easy.
ReplyDeleteI think 2014 will be a stellar year for emerging markets. It may be a good year for bonds. It may be a stellar year for miners.
ReplyDeleteBut all of the above will be relative. None of the above means it will necessarily be a great year for either stocks or bonds.
My best guess is you still see some more pain for emerging markets in the 1st quarter and the bottom is hit when we take a 9.9% hit in the US market. Then the US market ends up 10% and the emerging markets go up 25% from the bottom in Q1. I've learned through experience that I can't predict 1 year out, let alone 1 day out. So as far as Thursday goes, a lot of advil and water to counter the hangover.
DeleteWell, I value your opinion just the same. I like your scenario. It would work out well for me.
DeleteThe one advantage us 'old guys' have is experience, which occasionally translates into 'wisdom' and patience. Apart from bonds, miners, and (to a lesser extent) EM, I just don't see much worth buying.
DeleteWhat I sense is a bunch of 'old guys' selling into the optimism that will carry into the new year.
Delete(a) 2013 would have been a great year to buy and hold...the securities of developed economies (Europe, Japan, and especially the US).
ReplyDelete(b) Holding bonds, emerging markets and/or commodities was a losing game.
(c) On the other hand, buying on panic and selling on exuberance works in all market environments.
I don't know what will happen in 2014 (nor does anyone else). But we can count on moments of panic, and moments of exuberance. So for now, I'll stick with what's worked for me.
Speaking of panic, we witnessed one in metals this morning, and we may be seeing one momentarily in bonds (TLT dropping -1.3% to 101.17 as I write). For me, it's all about minimizing losses and capital preservation. Once we hit retirement, the game's over. So you could say I'm preparing for the end game by practicing the art of conservative trading.
Have we all forgotten FXP, EEV, and TZA?
ReplyDeleteThe mid-morning exuberance/short-covering in miners is now waning, with SLV bidding 18.65, SLW 20.08, GDX 20.97, and CEF 13.26. So my morning exit points now appear to have been at least 'a good idea.'
ReplyDeleteI think they'll be even better when SLV is in the mid teens and so on...
DeleteI'm looking at a 20 year chart of Silver that shows the spot price of $19.4 currently, which is almost 300% above the average from 1994 to 2004. While it's down more than 50% from the highs, the highs in this chart look like one of those euphoric blowoff tops, with Silver having gone up 10 fold from 2003 to 2011. Perhaps its just building strength for another major move up. I really can't tell but it seems to me that the easy money has already passed by. This is all above me though. I'm really not any good at figuring out how to value these metals.
TOF - Everyone piled into PM's due to the balance sheet recession, which has/is dissipating and growth is returning, the economic growth rate could become a global phenomenon with a magnitude never experienced before. That's the impression the market action is giving me, considering the record highs every week.
DeleteBALT chart is almost identical to the CSIQ chart from April / May 2013 time frame.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSIQ&p=D&st=2012-12-03&en=(today)&id=p94690323338
Obviously the results were ridiculous afterward for CSIQ and to imply the same thing because of similar charts would be a mistake. But it goes to show you the potential upside there is. No one knows for sure what the spot rates will be but given how suppressed they were while the market ripped to new highs, now that they're breaking out I wouldn't be shocked to see the BDI at 4,000 in 6 months. That translates into $2 to $2.50 EPS for BALT.
I'm biased of course.
@ $2~$2.50 EPS it would be hard to justify a share price less than $15 at least, for a P/E of just ~7 !!!!!!
DeleteBaby steps first. Need to first consolidate these gains from past few weeks.
DeleteDRYS down after hours on an equity offering.
Oh boy, more new highs, and new lows for PM's but not record lows. Kinda hard to be bearish concerning the global economy for 2014?
ReplyDeleteOkay, so Thursday we probably get some selling out of the gate, I'm not betting on it though.
ReplyDeleteEUO - Looks like the euro might start coming off?
ReplyDeleteBSBR - I kinda neglected to add BSBR today as planned, probably a mistake.
Taking (winning) positions off the table too quickly appears to be my 'nemesis.' But is that really the case?
ReplyDeleteI last closed RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) December 2 @ 14.27 for a one-day gain of +1.8%. Based on 'today's experience,' I might have decided to hold for further gains, no? The following day (December 3), it plunged -3.7% to 13.74. The fund went on to close as low as 13.12 (-8%!) before rebounding recently. Today's close of 13.88 still leaves it -2.7% shy of my original exit.
What about taking losses quickly? No argument there. Closing RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) on December 24 @ 14.07 for a one-day loss of -1% still looks good. Yesterday's bounce in Treasurys came close (14.05), but today's sell off has the fund back to a 13-handle @ 13.94.
Sure, it's disappointing to have missed the recent bounces in EEM and TLT.
No strategy works in all markets. And it would be a mistake to allow 'recency bias' to take me off my game.
Therein lies the value of daily 'debriefing.'
DeleteSometimes I think of trading as a treacherous pursuit, much like mountain climbing. There is some room for complacency, but not much. Remain focused, and plan each step carefully. It can be exhilarating when you make headway.
DeleteAs an aside. I've forwarded a lot of my comments over the years to family, only to discover that the prevailing response is 'Thanks, but to be honest I don't understand any of it.' It's not unlike someone forwarding to me the finer points of golf.
DeleteWith the onset of the next bear market, that may change. But I understand.
2nd - The thing that matters most is whether or not those same people care to learn something new. That's the beauty of life. Learning.
DeleteIn trading, as in our regular lines of work> It's not how much you make. It's how much you keep.
ReplyDeleteNo shit, I make a TON of money on every job.
DeleteUNG/UGAZ. Just saying.
ReplyDeleteBuy and hold must seem like a joke to investors in the commodities sector.
DeleteKIOR- Can you guys keep an eye on this one for me. TIA.
ReplyDeleteLots of insider selling on that one, bro. Most recently at prices lower than where it closed today.
DeleteWhat site do you use for that?
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=KIOR+Insider+Transactions
DeleteI'm a lazy ---.
DeleteIt pisses me off Finviz seems to be dropping the ball in this area. NPI.
DeleteWe're fortunate to at least recognize 'investing' for what it is. We can pay someone to do it for us. We can place bets on index funds, which ultimately rob us in the form of foregone percentages (might as well be paying protection money). Or we can play. But it's kind of a contact sport.
ReplyDeleteFor crying out loud, we're competing with professionals in the business of making money. In some cases, the business of taking money.
DeleteNo one is going to offer outperformance without a cut.
Next year will be that much harder for me. I've made a very large contribution this year and the #'s get more scary. 10% swing is huge.
ReplyDeleteWell, I'm back in Boston to pack the house and move on back to Cali. Wife and son are back west hunting down a house. Life has a fun way of making things interesting. However, I always keep in the back of my mind that things could be far, far worse. Growing up on my mom's salary of $18,000 in the 80's has helped keep many things in perspective for me.
ReplyDeleteFor my sake I hope 2014 is half as good as 2013. Best of luck to you all in 2014! As soon as I get a break I'm going to sit down to a tall glass of Di Majo Norante Ramitello 2009:
http://www.reversewinesnob.com/2013/03/di-majo-norante-ramitello-2009-majorly-good.html
You've got a great perspective on things bro...and freaking Herculean balls of steel..me, not so much :)
DeleteDRYS - Okay, down a bit in AH, interesting timing, as if to allow an opportunity for due diligence as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction?
ReplyDeleteSome nice surprises out there today, nobody wanted to take gains ahead of tax season?
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Added another 1/4 at $5.85, gonna wait and see how this plays out, not sure what the selling is all about.
ReplyDeleteBALT - Did you guys jump on the low $6 price?
ReplyDelete