How do I know when it's time for me to walk away from the capital markets? Generally when I perceive I'm risking more for diminishing returns.
I took a class titled 'Perception' as part of the Psych curriculum at Michigan. One day the professor paused when answering a student's question to ask, 'By the way, how many of you believe something because it's printed in a book? You all know that someone can write whatever they want and get it published, right? Doesn't mean it's true. You should question everything you read and everything you hear, even the stuff I write or say in class. Because I may be wrong.'
What's 'fair value' for the US indexes? No one knows. There's no such thing as 'intrinsic value' for a stock. A stock is worth exactly what a buyer and seller agree on at any point in time. Price/earnings multiples? The SPX has traded as low as 5 times earnings and as high as 36 times earnings. Multiples can expand or contract. Earnings? Projected cash flow streams are a
joke, and so are the projected interest rates used to discount them. What about
book value? Just as bad. Consider one of the more solid numbers we all count
on- the price of our home. According to Zillow, homes in my neighborhood are
worth 30% more in 2014 when compared to values 2011. Why? Because buyers have
been willing to pay more. You could argue that higher prices are a consequence
of lower mortgage rates, yet many of the same homes sold at even steeper prices
in 2007 when loan rates were 2 points higher. So 'book values' can change as
rapidly as stock prices!
Perceived value can change on a dime (one reason why good traders have the ability to change their take on a dime). The worst market crashes often occur with no catalyst. Investors simply decide they want to sell, and they all decide to sell at the same time. That's what crowds do. No one stops to calculate 'fair value' in a fast market.
I may be completely wrong to become bearish here. After all, the DJIA and SPX are trading near all-time highs. How bearish can I be? Well, it's just my perception of the markets. And as we all know by now, I'm often wrong!
SGEN - Looks like insiders loaded the boat?
ReplyDelete2nd - Don't stay too far away, keep a close eye on things.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA
DeleteI'll let you know what happens, bro.
US Beef Exports Set Record in November -United States Trade Data
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteI think it is fair to say that over long periods of time, stocks will trade towards the real or intrinsic value. In the short run, which can be days or even months/years in the case of the year 2000 dot-com/S&P largecap bubble or the 2008/2009 crash, stocks can trade far from real values. Momentum/greed/fear are powerful forces that can cause huge dislocations. But that is also opportunity - I'd say that many financials are still undervalued because of the fear generated during the last crash that many people have not recovered from. It may also be reasonable to say that gold is suffering the other way and people are still feeling too good about its value because they did so well with it in the mid-2000's and it is too high - I know I have 2 friends who are in that camp.
I'd also disagree that no-one calculates fair value in a crash. Knowing what fair value is gives you, or me at least, the strength to step up and buy into a crash as I did in late 2008/early 2009. Plus, you can look at what Buffet did during the same period. You know he spent probably 10 years sitting on cash before finally buy a ton of businesses in the 2008 - 2010 period because he had a very good understanding of the fair value of the businesses relative to the price of the stocks. I guess you're probably right that you don't calculate during the crash, but if you have done a lot of that work ahead of time, you will be ready to move when the crash comes.
'You know he spent probably 10 years sitting in cash.'
ReplyDeleteHe may not be sitting in cash now, but he's probably starting to think about it.
Most definitely he knows more than you and I put together!
DeleteSo Argentina's on the edge of drought?
ReplyDeleteIt's been 13-14 years since we've had a good market. Shit this is the first time I've ever really experienced what it's like to have a solid sustainable market since I started working. I mean I did have a little of money in the market in 99/2000 but I didn't know shit about what I was doing. So for my generation this is the first time we've ever experienced anything like this. I think most people in my shoes don't expect it to last, having gone through 2 nasty down cycles already. That's a long time for things to just trade sideways and it leaves a lot of people hesitant...hence the Univ of Mich sentiment readings you see that I like to point out. Will the bull end after 9 months of new all time highs? No idea, but my suspicion is no solely because no one truly trusts it.
ReplyDeletejeez check this chart out:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HOVNP&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p89603680081
hovnanian preferred stock, up 16 fold in 2 years.
Yep, preferreds! Yep on the nobody believes in it too, but I'm getting to the point I wanna see some damn good data and it's getting harder for me to see it in the numbers, seems like all I hear is about how this one or that one's earnings are weak, someone said AA laid an egg, LOL.
DeleteRe Buffet, he has slowed his buying since the crisis and calls the market fairly valued now, but still made some large investments in 2013 including the Heniz buyout at its high and several energy purchases including SU, XOM and that Phillips 66 division. Following his lead, he's implying energy is undervalued in the current environment. But he's a real buy and hold guy, so hasn't really sold much either.
ReplyDeleteI also agree with TOF's comment's on the broader market. I think the odds are very high that we've entered a new secular bull market and that stocks will trend upwards for many years, with smaller bear markets along the way than we've seen the last 14 years.
ReplyDeleteIt wouldn't surprise me if the pullbacks in this bull market weren't bigger than in the 1983 - 2000 secular bull as that is what people will expect. Maybe more like the ones in 1938 - 1963 secular bull to keep people wondering.
But either way, if this is correct, it will be nice to be investing with a tailwind at our backs. I also started actively investing in 2000. Prior to that, I was pretty much all in funds other than getting ORCL stock through the employee plan (which was a good time for that).
Thanks for an alternative viewpoints, it's difficult listening to the bearish sentiment that constantly permeates.
DeleteBDI +4, 1374
ReplyDeleteCH - Wow, this ETF has moved quite a bit. Will BCH bank follow? I would've expected the bank would lead. And look at BCH volume, huge?
Chilean port workers are striking:
ReplyDeletehttp://santiagotimes.cl/police-clash-workers-port-strikes-continue/
BAP - This one in Peru haven't been crashing.
ReplyDeleteEXTR - Just noticed yesterday was a good one, CPST hanging in there too.
ReplyDelete1848 - Good place to put on shorts, perhaps.
ReplyDeleteENPH - Tested $8.20 resistance again, I guess it succeeds next time.
ReplyDeleteCredit Suisse Hedge Fund index finished the year +9.73%
ReplyDeleteGoing to be tough for these guys to continue to justify their fees, especially if we are in a long term bull where buy and hold starts to work again.
Bought some Extendicare (EXE.TO, EXETF)
ReplyDeleteAnother good idea from the Reminiscences of a Stockblogger guy. Almost a 7% yield, company in the midst of trying to split up to drive shareholder value. Seems the yield shoud protect on the downside, and the deal, if it goes through, could generate strong upside in the next quarter or 2.
That's an interesting one
DeleteIDX - This one looks like it's gonna keep moving up, now above the 50 and 20 SMA 2nd, are you neglecting the assignment????
ReplyDeleteCHTP - Did you guys get in on yesterday's pullback?
ReplyDeleteCP - you mentioned that earnings and econ reports have been weak but I haven't really seen that. It's only been about a week into earnings season so its early but of the ones that we follow closely here (AA, NLS, ENPH), all have announced better than expected revenues. And outside of the jobs report (which appears to have no coincided with weekly jobless claims and other reports) most of the econ reports I've seen have been pretty good. I'm probably missing some stuff though. What else are you seeing?
ReplyDeleteThanks TOF, I'm trying my best to ignore these sources of lunacy!!! :)
DeleteBDI TA chart - Among many
ReplyDeletehttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/-v46XfnRUIWA/UtaTE1kkqsI/AAAAAAAANqc/rJAHw1SI8Wc/s1600/bdi+jpeg.JPG
jeezus i just got a seizure looking at that!
DeleteRight, but I discovered Chilean dock workers are on strike, I guess it gets resolved quickly b/c this is their busy season.
Deletere on s
ukarlewitz @ukarlewitz
ReplyDeleteGundlach: in the past 43 yrs, the SPX drawdown has only been lower than it was in 2013 three times pic.twitter.com/xEmbW4TlqK
I kinda need a clarification/translation on that, I'm slow!
DeleteCSIQ continues to go higher and higher. Now above $41. It was under $2 just 14 months ago.
ReplyDeleteMagic Software (MGIC) that we talked about before up 6% today to over $8.00 after presenting at the Needham growth conference. No new presentations on their website, so I'm guessing it is just getting their story out.
ReplyDeleteI had $8.00 in mind as kind of a sell target, but their business is getting better every year and their CEO is doing a great job, so now, I'm not so sure. Year-end results Feb. 14th, so should make a decision one way or another before that.
I was actually looking at that a couple of months ago and was wondering if you were still holding. Good job.
DeleteThanks, valuation has gone up and risk is higher, but have a good dividend policy and growth has been good. If they weren't majority owned already, I'd think one of the big boys (SAP, ORCL, IBM) would take them out.
DeleteCould just be my imagination, but it seems like PM's and mREIT's seem to move together.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see us hold onto 1848 but rather surprised we're ALREADY back there too, it could be a good indicator but it's seems too soon, way too bullish and hard to trust. Maybe the earnings news is gonna beat expectations AGAIN??? Nearly as nice of a gift as the recent EM's crash.....!
BSBR - LOLWTF...... Was hoping for a chance to add more.
ReplyDeleteFunny how stocks just sometimes bounce right back from these type of events.
DeleteENPH - Now this one is "safely" past $7, when does CPST reach $7?
ReplyDeleteNM and looks like most of the shippers getting a nice bounce today as BDI up for first day of the year.
ReplyDeleteYou can be sure a lot of people had profits to protect after 2013, so that helped make for aggressive selling. Hopefully it is over for a while, but hard to say.
There are a couple of people on Stocktwits / Twitter calling for much higher BDI levels than I've been thinking...like 4,000 by summer and 6,000 by year end. If that happens these will all go through the roof. I'm hoping for 3,000 to 3,500 by the end of the year.
DeleteGGN could be an entry on a brief drop here?
DeleteBALT - refuses to drop into below upper $5's, market is holding up.
ReplyDeleteA lot of miners having really good days this year and also YTD, like AUMN - up 51% already this year.
ReplyDeleteLUN.TO, the one I wanted to buy but was hoping for lower prices is now up 7%
TSX Venture Exchange up 10% from its low on December 20th.
Not sure if this is the real bottom, but I think the odds look pretty good to at least try buying something here. If it is the real bottom after such a tough bear, I think it may take off like a rocket, so I guess I am saying maybe I should chase a bit here.
Any thoughts?
That's a really good question, perhaps it's time for the Canadian dollar to lift and these miners (as beat down as they are) are one mechanism for catching the move, could that be part of the picture? If so, it should be mostly Canadian miners, right?
DeleteThe Canadian currency drop helps a lot of industries including manufacturing, energy and mining, but the best winners are commodity producers who have their cost in C$, but get US$ for their products. Huge help to margins.
DeleteLUN.TO - "Portugal, Sweden, Spain, and Ireland", so it's operations are not even in Canada. That makes this more complicated.
DeleteA lot of small global mining companies have their head office in vancouver as that is the best place for financing, technical expertize, etc. The Lundin's are actually Sweedish i think.
Deletethe reason I like the stock is it has a diversified set of assets including copper, zinc, nickel, so broad exposure to the base metals excuding iron ore (which seems to be oversupplied).
PEIX - About to join the $7 mile high club, too.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, how in the F*&! is that possible? 2-7 in 2 months.
DeleteBeats me, I feel like a dunce.
DeleteAll I see at about the time it took off is they bought sugar for feed stock, sugar should ferment much better/easier than corn so maybe that's how they turned things around? Could just be a coincidence.
Delete82 degree's in Santa Cruz today. WTF?!
ReplyDeleteYeah, but what about MCP?
DeleteThe stock? I still really like it. Reading about RH right now.
DeleteBALT - Took a few off @ $6.32 for a ).02 gain, will load them back immediately if we fade a little into sunset.
ReplyDeleteWas kinda hoping RH would have been hit by BBY.
ReplyDelete55 might be the spot.
DeleteBBY - Yeah, that one figures. Would have expected a higher short float, like 99% or something.
DeleteAA - Wow, and NOR chart looks like the obligatory pullback before shooting higher, too.
ReplyDeleteTC - LOL, too bad we couldn't make ourselves buy another turd.
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Still coming to me. Cramer pumped this one I think, so maybe it's not something I wanna own, IDK
ReplyDeletePEIX - $7 club
ReplyDeleteDRYS - Can this baby hang onto $4 ???
ReplyDeleteBALT - Had some unfinished business around $6.40's, now I see the uncovered bar there. There's another around $6.10ish and $5.50 ???
ReplyDeleteGlobal economy had better be good, or else!!!!
Not only will global growth be good but the supply of ships will be constrained. Balt to $20.14 in 2014
DeleteI believe it. :)
DeleteReloaded those shares, see the 12:32 bounce upward just as my order hit the wires?
Sold half of my MGIC this morning.
ReplyDeleteMaybe this big jump is the start of something (up another 4.8% today), but on the other hand, maybe it is just people getting excited from the Needham conference. The volume certainly is very good.
Either way, I'm reducing the risk (and reward) and will probably just watch now for a while and see where it goes from here.
Looks like its going to re-test that $9.74 high again.
DeleteMan I am shaking my head at some moves this morning. I still can't quite comprehend the move in CSIQ. From $2 to $42 in a span of 14 months. That's simply amazing and makes me appreciate how high a stock can get going if it gets held underwater for a long time and if fundamentals turn around. i can think of a lot of candidates just like that one, to lesser degrees of course based on market caps:
AA
BALT
EGLE
GNK
PEIX
WLT / ANR / ACI / BTU
TZOO
ADES is another stock...it took longer but it went from $2 to $58 in 48 months, a cool 2800% increase.
DeleteThe wicker wonder (PIR) was the biggest one i've ever seen: from $0.10 to $25, an increase of 24,900% in 50 months.
Think about those moves in the context of a $10,000 investment and that's why I think it always makes sense to be on the lookout for future winners no matter what your opinion is of the overall market.
DeleteAPP is another multi bagger candidate in my opinion.
DeleteOn the surface it looks like a lot of those miners would be good candidates. I think they have good upside but it just makes me a little hesitant given how long Gold/Silver has already been in a bull market. But the negativity is there for all of those as well.
DeleteShould have gone out for lunch today - MGIC up another 3% in an hour - that would have more than covered things!
DeleteRe the miners, I still think you are much better staying away from the gold/silver ones. Other metals never had the run that gold had and didn't attract as much overinvestment. A few years ago, there were hundreds of junior miners hunting for gold on the Toronto markets - not very many were going after the base metals. The other way to play it is metal manufacturers like AA or the steel companies, or POT or the shippers or there are some mining services companies in Toronto like MDI (the biggie) and I own a little one CBE which I hope to get at least a 5-fold return from.
Just noticed Uranium miner Cameco (CCO.TO) up 8% the last 2 days too.
DeleteIf I look at the chart for this, it is breaking above a 2 year base - the question is whether this is a real breakout, or just another top before it goes back into the base for even longer?
ARNA - Still smokin'
ReplyDeleteWTF YRCW is easily the most volatile non biotech stock in the market right now.
ReplyDeleteWow CAMP is another one. Look at that sucker. From $4 to $31 in the past 2 years.
ReplyDeleteJCP is another one. I suspect it needs to build a base for a while...perhaps a couple of years...before it explodes higher.
Trade opportunity coming up with DECK. RSI_EMA on daily is at 23 and hourly is at 16. I'm thinking one more flush down today to break below the lows and try going long there...subject to change of course!
ReplyDeletebidding DECK at $72.55
DeleteActually going to do half at $75.55.
Deletescratch that. gonna stick with $72.55. I'm thinking this is near the high from early nov. it should hold between $69 and $72ish. That would be a 20% or so drop and eviscerate the excessive bullishness in the stock a week or two ago.
DeleteBSBR - Groundhog day, same action as yesterday. Wonder if tomorrow does the same thing?
ReplyDeleteTHD - $65 tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteWow i just looked at my holdings from early Oct: 40% long PEIX at $3.8 and 40% long CECO at $2.75. I'm thinking it was a mistake to close both. Not 100% sure yet.
ReplyDeleteBb - ccj looks like just another tradeable pop. I have a tough time thinking uranium gets over the Japanese debacle from 2011 any time soon
ReplyDeleteRH getting hammered on Twitz.
ReplyDeleteICPT- What say you 2nd?
AA back to a new 52 week high now - guess the earnings miss didn't mean anything after all.
ReplyDeletePlus, Citi liking miners today - hmmm:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/01/16/citi-goes-bullish-on-miners-for-the-first-time-in-three-years/
I didn't understand why people thought it was a bad report. Maybe just trying to manipulate it lower? They did beat top line estimates.
DeleteFunny to see HLF getting wacked on NUS.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the deal with RH? What has you interested in it? getting quite oversold - RSI_EMA of 13. Looks somewhat like ENPH back when they crushed it down to the mid $4's. ENPH hit a 5 RSI_EMA which is about as low as I've ever seen.
DeleteHLF has a huge short float too, probably great for downside protection?
DeleteLots of dip buyers in DECK today is my takeaway...Looks to me like a gap lower tomorrow on DECK would be a good entry.
ReplyDeleteENPH - Notice how $8.20 held, next target is $8.80
ReplyDeleteFewer people have been killed by nuclear power plants than mining coal and burning coal releases more radioactive components into the environment than nuclear power, there's more radioactive energy in coal than thermal energy.
ReplyDeleteSo if anything is dead, it's coal.
yeah i just wonder how long it takes for people to overcome the images of a nuclear disaster. that has to have a lasting impact on them and on traders right?
DeleteIt would not surprise me if the actual cutback in nuclear is not far less than the projected. It's hard to come up with huge sources of electricity without either nuclear or burning a whole lot of something, which people don't want either. Plus, China was supposed to be building a whole bunch of plants and I have to believe there are a whole lot of miners looking for Uranium now.
DeleteMight be worth digging into the supply/demand fundamentals to see if it is worth an investment.
India as well, has an impressive number of nuclear power plants on the drawing boards in various phases.
DeleteI guess people will never overcome the images of nuclear disaster, which probably explains the high interest in alternatives.
What about the 200+ US ICBM's, is it possible to shut that program down and convert that material into useful fuel?
Megatons to Magawatts is supposedly winding down:
DeleteThe overall goal of the program is converting about 20,000 nuclear warheads for fuel, and it is about ninety percent achieved, so approximately 18,000 warheads have been converted at this point. The sixteen thousand milestone was achieved in 2010. Twenty thousand conversions should be completed by the end of 2013.
I have a cousin who is nuclear physicist in the industry. We were class mates in grade school. Last time I talked to him he said "no one died from Three Mile Island". Enough said after Fukushima.
DeleteHow many died when terrorists attacked the WTC?
DeleteBanks seem to be doing much better once they stopped making loans that can't be repaid!
ReplyDeleteIs the Hong Kong accounting regulatory structure on the up and up, or similar to Enron?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.chinaaccountingblog.com/auditing-in-hong-kong-unfit.pdf
TOF- I'll call you tomorrow re RH.
ReplyDeletesounds good man. nice to have the pre announce in ENPH huh? beats the stress of an earnings call
DeleteWonder if nuclear power can unlock the hydrogen production bottleneck, does it hold the key?
ReplyDeleteMaybe even nuclear reactors will be used to produce hydrogen from coal? This doesn't seem necessary if a reactor can be tuned to split water molecules to separate the hydrogen.
DeleteNSPH - Climbing again!
ReplyDeletePACB - Good strength there
ReplyDeleteSGEN - Amazing, Cramer's pick has come back!
ELON - Man so many of these dead stocks are popping up.
ReplyDeleteWorld bank suggests China's economy is slowing:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
BDI - Up +50 the past couple days, now 1421
ReplyDeleteNII holdings brings iphone to Brazil
ReplyDeleteNIHD is the ticker
DeleteIn at $2.89
DeleteThis is one TOF follows.
DeleteOut at $2.94, for a win!
DeleteRH - Will it retest $55? I don't know this store but interested b/c you are.
DeleteOkay, now I remember since you said that. I looked over the debt and cash burn rate + the trend and got the squak out, since it was stalling.
DeleteNIHD needs to hold $2.60, best I can tell. Quite a short float on this one and so far they're right.
DeleteMy stupid broker has a $2.50 target on it, not sure if this news changes their mind.
DeleteNSA - Controlling phone data, I'd rather big corporations not track my daily life for analysis.
ReplyDeleteNIHD sure looks like it has bottomed. I have been watching it closely. Another one that could skyrocket.
ReplyDeleteONP finally moving out of its consolidation period.
ReplyDeleteThe aluminum revolution: AA
ReplyDeleteHave any of you guys used IBD at all? I keep seeing them promote stocks that have already had massive moves like ASPS and a variety of others. Are they just looking for small moves? Kind of like buying gold after it moves from $200 to $1500 no?
ReplyDeleteGot the book free at an investment trade show once.
DeleteBasically, it was buy high ROE/Fast growers, have a firm stop at 8% (I think) and use chart patterns like the cup and saucer to buy.
It was too chart oriented for me, but I also believe a lot of people follow it and that can be both good and bad. I'm sure you will do better with your approach of finding small stocks with big upside.
yeah i was just curious if people actually use it. i can't quite understand why people buy things that have already gone on huge runs but i guess you could always catch a PCLN or a AMZN at $200 and ride it for higher prices.
DeleteOr GOOG at $600, I recall that idea too.
DeleteProbably works well in really strong bull markets, which is what we have now, so maybe it is starting to work again.
DeletePACB rocking
ReplyDeleteGood article from Santoli on why you want to avoid most retail, restaurants and mall stocks.
ReplyDeleteMakes a lot of sense to me - this is a long term trend and no need to fight against this headwind.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/michael-santoli/online-shopping-s-rise-somehow-sneaks-up-on-retailers---and-consumers-win-161056204.html
Deleteand then you look at the chart of M
DeleteThere are a few winners, but hard to pick them out of the many losers.
DeleteNIHD does look like it's bottoming here, judging by the chart it's a distinct possibility.
ReplyDeleteCCL ought to have a knockout coming soon, I expect.
AA is great, and NOR - A mere 11% today.
NOR - My broker has a $2.50 12mo target on this one, with a 10% 5yr growth estimate.
Delete"Metals & Mining: US metals/mining short interest nosedived late Dec"
DeleteJanuary 13, 2014
"Short interest for our coverage fell an avg 8.8% in the second half of Dec, a sharp contrast with the S&P 500's 3.1% rise. YE short covering occurred despite little underlying demand improvement, and likely reflected strong Q4 stock performances. Our top stock ideas are Nucor, CONSOL, Suncoke, and specialty metals/ aerospace plays Kaiser, RTI, Haynes, and ATI."
Deletethey all have mini knockouts huh? BALT had one this morning.
Delete17-Jan-14 11:48AM Steel Demand Not Enough to Lift US Steel, AK Steel at Barrons.com
ReplyDelete16-Jan-14 01:21PM Wait, Don't Chase US Steel, AK Steel, Nomura Says at Barrons.com
angling for a knockout move to get long is my take...
DeleteXIN - Looks like a bottom following a 33% pullback?
ReplyDeleteCYD could be ready to rock again?
NM/GNK/DRYS - All down, BALT vacillating.
Meanwhile, World Bank warns on emerging market growth estimates due to Chinese slowdown compounded by FED tapering.
Shouldn't take long before the abolition of the one child policy kicks in gear, those boys and girls will need jobs too, around the age of 7yrs? So the Chinese government should resume building giant cities soon.
AGCO - Filling that July gap up, seems like.
ReplyDeletenew all time highs coming today?
ReplyDeleteThat's possible, FMAR is up 20%
Deletenope!
Deletemy thinking was people would cover/chase into the long weekend.
DeleteIsn't that really better if we don't just shoot to a new high just yet?
Deleteyeah i'm just speculating
DeleteShorts now perceiving weakness, piling on.
DeleteFMAR - No volume though
ReplyDeleteAGCO did fill the $55.13 gap today, yesterday volume was big, like past three lows. Seems like too many people betting on a bottom here? I think Cramer pumped this one so of course it got beat down.
SGEN - Cramer pumped this one too, just as it topped in Sept.
Robot still short from 1827 Not sure but looks like mostly beat up stuff is rising, like some kind of rotation?
ReplyDeleteIf we can take 1848 then we'll probably make a new high soon.
AUMN - Rockin' did they discover new silver?
AGO - This must be the knockout?
AGO - The open gap is $21.73, almost filled.
DeleteNIHD - Why is it so many times upbeat news comes out just as a stock is so beat up and looks like it's dead and buried, is it manipulation of some sort or does this occur b/c Wall Street squeezes until management finally caves-in on negotiating a contract?
ReplyDeleteLong SPY for a trade into the close on margin. $183.64
ReplyDeleteI'm going to try S2 @ 183.48.
DeleteOff @ .75
Deleteclosed at $163.8 after hours
DeleteChina reports Monday, so this should naturally cause some uncertainty and hesitation.
ReplyDeleteSo Chinese imports were up as reported recently, wonder what the details were... If maybe they were importing with emphasis on Eurozone goods. Seems like I hear a lot recently about high manufactured goods from Southern Europe, Chile just signed a contract for a $1B thermal solar power plant which can produce electricity 24hrs. Chile also has some of the best wind for creating electricity.
NIHD - There she goes, finally!
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Oh man, swan dive....
ReplyDeleteTGIBF, says it all.
ReplyDeleteTAXI - Reverend Jim Ignatowski says buy.
ReplyDeleteShippers:
ReplyDeleteSYMBOL % from High
BALT 9.91%
DSX 5.81%
SBLK 3.41%
SB 11.20%
NM 19.01%
DRYS 23.60%
NM - I'm not liking how the recent low was less than $9, it slants the chart to bearish IMO, but the BDI did fall a ton, 40%
DeleteFRom my point of view, NM was in a channel from Jan, 2013 all last year and just broke above it late December and then quickly fell back to the bottom of the channel in mid-Jan. and is now working its way back upwards in the middle of the channel.
DeleteBB - I'm not singling out NM, my impression is NM is leading. Yeah, it's still in the channel and may remain there but it's going to require more than hopium. Since China reports Monday, I expect that's gonna be the come to Jesus moment with perhaps an initial fake move, which is why we need to be awake and alert to the report as opposed to napping.
DeleteNIHD - Seems a safe bet the iphone crazies run this puppy on up?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Left shoulder Sept 5th, head Dec 22th?
ReplyDeleteCPST - This one's going straight up, $7 soon?
ReplyDeleteDBC - Could be bear flag? If lower 52wk unfolds that would suggest yes?
ReplyDeleteDo these charts looks like they're about to break down?
ReplyDeleteCCJ - +28% above 53wk low
URG - +93% above
well look at this:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/charts-show-this-trade-will--explode--in-2014--parets-195733240.html
funny we were just talking about it.
I think so.
DeleteSentiment is poor and expectations low for the sector, for sure. If fundamentals turn out better than expected, well, that is almost always a great stock to own!
DeleteINTC - Laying off 5% of workforce.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.blogcastalia.com/the-sun-hasnt-set-on-asia/#more-3390
ReplyDeletenice brief overview of china/japan worries most people have
CP,
ReplyDeleteI think you'd know I'd never trad a stock on hopium! I guess the only time I do that is when a stock gets trashed and I try to save the trade, but that is certainly not the case with NM.
NM is at $9.50
Their ownership on NMM (high-yeild, drybulk) based on public pricing is $2.85
Their ownership of NNA (energy transportation) based on public pricing is $3.35
So the rest of the company is worth $3.30 a share. For that $3.30, you get 64% of a South American Logistic business plus 68 of their directly owned ships. They do have debt of $1.5B, but also $200 million of cash and $1.1 billion of equity.
Plus they trade at 87% of book value, much of it which is very hard like their publicly listed subs.
Go to their investor relations website and take a look at their investor presentation. They lay things out very well for you.
But even stocks with good fundamentals often seem to trade in channels - I think it might be something psychological that people are only willing to pay the price+X% over a certain time, but that's just a guess. It does seem to work a lot of the time though.
DeleteBB - That's impressive info. Hard to ignore those details, Makes me feel MUCH more comfortable and calm about the sector, as well.. Maybe I'll pick up a few shares myself, upon reviewing the investor presentation this weekend.
DeleteOK, I'm feeling more and more comfortable about taking a position in a mining company (AA is a pseduo-miner) and will probably at least start building a position in something next week, even at these prices.
ReplyDeleteI've got the weekend to think this through, but seems like there is a reasonable chance that metals prices have stopped going down and many of the miners seem very cheap if this holds. I will still stay away from gold as I see the odds being less favourable there.
The one way to approach this is to buy a big safe one, like BHP, which should do well in pretty much any metals environment, so safer, but far less upside if the bottom is in. Probably a better approach is a small-cap with a great mine and balance sheet -> they should really take off if things hold.
I plan to keep it small to start and see how this plays out, but I think it is worth some investment here and could pay off very well.
Work ALL weekend on it so I can follow you on Tue!
DeleteI'll look and see if I can dig up something on inventories and demand, trying to contribute something here if possible.
DeleteCCJ reports on Jan 11th, so I don't imagine I'll be getting into that particular one at least till then.
ReplyDeleteNIHD - I'm kinda salivating over this one for some reason.
Spanish and Italian bonds seem to be behaving well? Another indicator in the plus column.
ReplyDeleteNIHD is definitely interesting..they have spectrum and people are bidding up for that.
ReplyDeletefor miners: i'm assuming you guys are referring to anything not mining gold and silver right?
here's a few I could find on initial screen but don't know much about em:
PAL
TC
MIL
OCIR - this one is interesting
DNN - uranium play
ZINC
WLT / ACI / ANR etc
Why US farmers should go to cash:
ReplyDeletehttp://farmfutures.com/story-cash-king-8-107291
http://www.thestreet.mobi/story/12244428/1/jim-cramer-industrials-may-be-the-place-to-be.html
ReplyDeleteCramer liking AA. Like it when he is on board a the start of a move. After a big move, I get worried, so for now a positive.
not sure what to think of that. AA may be at the start but PPG certainly isn't:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PPG&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p51075427662
jeez look at that long term chart of PPG:
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PPG+Interactive#symbol=ppg;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
how in the hell can someone buy that there?
I wanted to buy PPG long ago, haven't wanted to see the opportunity I missed.
DeleteMany have predicted the demise of the China boom and were early, says Felix Zulauf at the Barron's Roundtable, but now it's more obvious "it's in a terminal stage." He's playing it by shorting the iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH). The Hong Kong banking system is heavily exposed to mainland China, so when China goes, there could be a banking crisis in Hong Kong. The HK$ is pegged to the greenback, so the HKMA will defend it by hiking rates, smacking the heavily rate-sensitive economy there.
ReplyDeleteIt's been nearly a decade since Zulauf recommended gold miners, but now's the time the buy the GDX, he says. Gold (GLD) is "washed out ... those who wanted to sell gold have sold it ... Western investors, asset-allocators, ETF players have all sold their gold. The buyers? "Physical gold moved from Western to Eastern hands."
After 30 years of declining yields, Zulauf isn't a secular bull on U.S. Treasurys, but sees mis-pricing in government paper, noting French 10-year notes yield 50 bps less than comparable U.S. ones. The 10-year Treasury yield could easily fall 75-100 bps and he's a buyer of TLT.
Yes, TLT would certainly rally, but wouldn't the US dollar also be a great place to hide?
DeleteNice to see this article the day before China reports, LOL, great timing!
Always hire the employee you think is most capable of supplanting you:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/12/09/george-zimmer-mens-wearhouse/
I received an email from our friend TOF so figured I'd pop in while I have the long weekend off. 2nd- I must say you wrote an outstanding lead-in here. "The worst market crashes often occur with no catalyst. Investors simply decide they want to sell, and they all decide to sell at the same time. That's what crowds do. No one stops to calculate 'fair value' in a fast market."
ReplyDeleteAs we know, sentiment changes on a DIME.
I'm doing some work on put/call ratios this weekend. I really wish I could post stuff here. I'll probably post on Twitter later. In any case, the 20 day put/call ratio is an excellent way to visualize sentiment. When investors don't seek portfolio protection for a long period of time, the 20 day PC trends lower. The biggest crashes in history happened when investors didn't have protection. That's how the market works, right?
Heck, we let our health insurance lapse one time in our life, and the next week, we get hit by a bus.
At any rate, the 20dma for the PC ratio is at .71. There are only 2 lower readings going back 10 years. .69 in '04 and .63 in '05. 20% and 15% corrections ensued w/in days.
The reading before the flash crash was .78.
I sensed lots of euphoria in my inbox on Friday so I liquidated pretty much everything but some miners. We'll see how it plays out.
Great to see you're still knocking out of the park over here 2nd!
I have mixed feelings about the put/call ratio too. On the one hand I think most participants in the market now are bullish...on the other hand I think the majority of the public isn't. So I think both are offsetting one another right now.
DeleteHere is a great example of bearish/skeptical public sentiment:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/166886/despite-high-stock-prices-half-wary-investing.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=All%20Gallup%20Headlines%20-%20Economy
Even the article above is skeptical..."Americans appear skittish about pouring money into what appears to be a bull market" - WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BULL MARKET? Wtf. What imbecile in their right mind wouldn't call this a bull market?!?
Then you still have a Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment reading that is in the doldrums when compared to past bull markets.
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Michigan-Consumer-Sentiment-Index.php?utm_content=forex&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
"To put today's report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is now 6 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 4 percent below the geometric mean. The current index level is at the 35th percentile of the 433 monthly data points in this series."
That's simply amazing. We're talking about all time highs and the 5th year of a bull market...and yet even still the index isn't even in the 90th percentile, no less the 40th percentile.
I also see that the VIX call open interest is at a record high right now which suggests to me that there is plenty of hedging going on.
So I think if I combine all of these factors I still think the odds are we have a solid, if not extremely solid, first half/year. Obviously things can change. I think these things are probably the best things to watch when looking at the overall market because the multiples people are willing to pay are directly correlated to their overall bullishness.
Listened to an interview the CSX CEO had with Bloomberg today and he said the industrial side of their business is doing better than it has in a long long time. This part of the business includes their intermodal business (which I believe can be best summed up as moving trucks from one place to another). This confirms the move in the transports. Sounds like the coal (due to low nat gas) slump is what is dragging them down. He said that part of their biz only makes up 13% of their revenues. I was talking with Jesse a little about Nat Gas and how it looks like it could be on the verge of rallying even further. The longer term chart shows a huge inverted head and shoulders pattern forming, if youre a pattern guy. If it moves to $6/7 that would really make things interesting in terms of what it would do to the coal space. Coal to me doesn't quite yet seem like it has made a bottom, rather it appears to be creating a very long base that might take a while longer. But if nat gas moves like that then coal could definitely be in play. And CSX would be a beneficiary as well.
ReplyDeleteAnother handful of analysts on the market this year:
ReplyDelete1/17/14: "Craig Johnson, managing director of Piper Jaffray and one of the major bulls on Wall Street, predicts a bit more gains for stocks, but then a plunge this year that will take the market down by as much as 20 percent before an upward trend continues."
1/15/13: "Goldman Sachs: Stocks Likely to Suffer 10 Percent Decline. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index stands at a valuation that's "lofty by almost any measure," Goldman strategists wrote."
1/16/14: "The stock market's smooth rise upward in 2012 and 2013 sets it up for a 10 percent correction early this year, says Byron Wien, vice chairman at Blackstone Advisory Partners."
1/16/14: "Meanwhile, James Paulsen, chief strategist of Wells Capital Management, sees stocks advancing early in the year amid economic strength and then falling 10 percent later to end 2014 little changed."
Birinyi - haven't heard from him since December.
1/16/14: Tom Lee (JP Morgan): "After a strong 2013 where the S&P 500 was up almost 30%, you would think that most stocks would be close to being fully priced. That’s not what Thomas Lee, the chief equity strategist at J.P. Morgan thinks. In a new research report, the J.P. Morgan team remains confident that U.S. economic momentum is strengthening, and they continue to expect incoming data over the next few months to validate that trend. They also think that investors remain positive on equities in general, but point out that retail ownership of stocks is still low."
Here's his list of low priced stocks: http://247wallst.com/investing/2014/01/16/j-p-morgan-strategist-says-one-quarter-of-all-stocks-are-still-cheap/
1/13/14: Jeff Saut: "As previously stated, the history of rallies like the one we have seen since the June 2012 “lows” (40%+) is that in the next three months, the equity markets are due for a 5%-7% pullback, as well as roughly a 10%-12% correction sometime over the next 12 months. Nevertheless, as repeatedly stated, such pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities given my ongoing belief we are into a secular bull market. "