Tuesday, February 11, 2014
2/11/14
Let The Sun Shine In...
Although the solar power industry took a bit of a breather in the fourth quarter of 2013, it now appears that the sector is back on track. Strength has been seen in many names to start the year, and there is plenty of reason to believe that more gains can be had in this corner of the market in 2014 as well.
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CVI seems to be taking off
ReplyDeleteCSIQ taking it on the chin this morning. I don't know a lot of these look quite extended to me.
ReplyDeleteI would have to guess silicon prices have risen recently?
DeleteLong a small amount of HNSN at $2.6. Was watching this one for a long time and it looks like its finally breaking out. I'm interested in this only because of the big stake that ISRG has in them.
ReplyDeleteRobotic surgical stuff is cool, and I think still immature. A tiny vein-crawler to go up in there and clip artery restrictions and drag trash back out, I love it. One of the top brain surgery OR's here uses the ISRG robot, the surgeon is HOT SHIT with that thing and saves lives everyday using it. Stroke victims are flown in on helicopters from other hospitals up and down the coast that can't do anything for the patient but stabilize them.
DeleteSold at $2.72. I'll take a 5% gain any day!
DeleteGood work man, insiders have really loaded the boat on that one.
DeleteGood to see the coal stocks including ACI doing well today. Still holding ACI - $3.92 avg. Still skeptical though.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Needs to hang onto $4.83, here
ReplyDelete$US - Amazing, how the dollar is falling. Wonder why this is?
ReplyDeleteCCJ - Looks to me like front-runners unloaded this one into strength the past couple days on confirmation of the Tokyo pro-nuclear election, doesn't it?
ReplyDelete1811 - This has got to be a tough resistance area here.
SCCO -Wow man, this thing has been flying. Amazing, I thought copper was kinda high already and XIN is looking weak.
ReplyDeleteSo, is XIN about to pop?
Toledo - Lowest median home price?
NVDA - Reports tomorrow in AH, this one the "actual experts" have been ranting and raving over.
ReplyDeleteMorning boys and girls,
ReplyDelete2nd, cool pic of the sun with solar flare's. Below is a link on China, GS Blankenfield, and may have been the goose.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/blankfein-china-is-the-21st-century-story-rXw353UCQVOlqNf9P25dLg.html
and
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/blankfein-says-world-depends-on-china-growth-HBBKUVbOQaeJOqDzEW93sQ.html
Closed on our place on 12/20/13 and three days later thrown the biggest curve ball of my life, so we are still in Hawaii (I'm going to miss this place). Anyway next to no trading and just spending time learning what I need to learn. Family matters most, tell your wife you love her and hug her and your children everyday.
Good luck to all in 14 and life.
Good luck to you too T3d, hope everything works out for the best! :)
DeleteT3d - Sorry to hear that I hope you're doing well.
DeleteThanks CP,
ReplyDeleteHere is a take on PXD which I'm interested in and may be similar to CXO, per UBS.
4Q EPS in line with consensus
Clean EPS rose 20% YoY to $1.00 and was in line with consensus of $0.99 but above UBSe $0.92. CFPS
of $3.41 was below consensus of $3.67 and UBSe of $3.68 due to the re-classification of Barnett
volumes to discontinued operations. 4Q highlights: disclosed production was up 8% YoY to 164.2
MBoed (in line with guidance after adjusting for the ~9 MBoed of Barnett volumes moved to
discontinued ops), 12% YoY rise in realizations, and a 5% rise in per unit costs of $6.86/Mcfe were 1%
above UBSe.
Adjusted 2014 guidance shy of expectations but raises LT growth outlook
PXD unveiled 2014 production guidance (from continuing ops) of 184-192 MBoed, +14-19% YoY but
below prior UBSe & consensus (pro-forma for the Barnett) of 192 MBoed and 194 MBoed,
respectively. PXD also disclosed lower than expected 1Q prod'n guidance of 166-171 MBoed, below
UBSe & consensus (pro-forma) of 178 MBoed and 179 MBoed, respectively. As expected, PXD increased
its longer term prod'n growth guidance from 13-18% to 16-21% from 2014-16, broadly in line UBSe of
15-20% growth for the period. Notably, this growth will be liquids driven, as liquids are expected to
climb from 63% of prod'n in '13 to 75% of prod'n by 2016. 2014 capex of $3.3bn is modestly above
UBSe & consensus of $3.2bn.
Boosts unbooked resource from >8 BBoe to 10.2 BBoe; adjusting NAV
PXD raised its companywide unbooked resource estimate to 10.2 BBoe (>8 BBoe prior), driven by
upgrades in the Wolfcamp (+2.3 BBoe to 9.6 BBoe on a higher Northern Wolfcamp type curve & tighter
spacing assumptions) & Eagle Ford (+110 MBoe to 450 MMBoe on tighter spacing), partly offset by
removal of the Barnett (-300 MMBoe). We raised our unbooked resource estimate to 10.5 BBoe (was 9.2
BBoe); however our companywide 2P NAV was little changed at $267/share on 2014E.
Valuation: premium to peers on EV/EBITDX but trading in-line on price/NAV
While its EBITDX multiple of 11x is a premium to peers, it trades roughly in line with peers at 0.70x NAV.
Our revised price target of $210 (was $225) assumes a peer average target multiple of~0.80x NAV.
BAS is the major well servicer in the area, I believe. Wooden shacks are renting at unbelievable levels, income is now greater than San Jose, where Bay area median home prices are over $750k
DeletePXD - BACML's current 12 month price objective is $275
Delete2/11/14 "4Q13 EPS of $1.00 is not comparable with consensus of $0.98 (BofAMLe $1.03) on account that it has stripped out the Barnett. Notably, Wolfcamp B in Martin and Midland are estimated at 800Mboe and 1MMboe respectively, with the D between 650-800Mboe. PXD is transferring to hz faster than previous expected with 16 rigs scheduled for the North by end of March - Buy."
The danger to these oil companies might be an inability to export crude, thus if refineries cannot process the volume then oil prices stay too soft?
DeleteBALT is looking better here, I think. Just bought a ton more on the pullback and hate to let it go, maybe I should dump the entire port into it? :)
ReplyDeleteEPD - Nice channel, huh?
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the crash down in JRCC is no different than the ones in MTG and SUNE right at their exact bottoms before massive moves higher. It seems to me that the coal sector has bottomed. If so and if we see a big rally it might make sense to pick up some JRCC here.
ReplyDeleteJRCC - Yeah man, dang, this thing got hit by a truck, WTF! Hard not to take a bite for at least a bounce.
Delete1 Million share purchase just went through on ACI. Wonder if they walked it down to that price to grab the shares.
ReplyDeleteShocking news!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2014/02/rand-paul-hillary-could-be-derailed-by-little-known-lewinsky-affair.html?utm_source=tny&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=borowitz&mbid=nl_Borowitz%20(34)
is this from The Onion?
DeleteI should say the led posts comments were from Zack's today, in a Bull of the day for CSIQ...although I basically agree with them.
ReplyDeleteFMAR - Stick a fork in this one, BK.
ReplyDeleteARR- Remember this one? The position I held has been green for a couple of weeks now and earned a about a 15% divy.
ReplyDeletesick
Delete1900 by Friday?
ReplyDeleteANR - Reports tomorrow morning, eh?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Well TOF, thanks for convincing me on this one, what else can I say... :)
ReplyDeleteWe all know the trap door will open up under our feet though right?
DeleteI gotta say you got lucky with your sale / purchase yesterday. I probably should be trading this one more but I'm just holding out hope that the spot rates finally rise back up into the 3,000's in which case BALT goes to $20 and pays a $1.00 dividend. I also think they have enough room to raise the dividend a bit this quarter. Thinking somewhere around $0.04 or $0.05 this quarter.
DeleteShort term I think GNK is going to have to either go belly up or do a massive share dilution which investors probably will find BALT guilty by association. So I think there's a chance we get another 10 or 20% drop out of nowhere but ultimately I think we go a lot higher.
Absolutely. The effort to dissuade will no doubt intensify, following today's move.
DeleteWell, I should've loaded up on the visit to $5.20
DeleteDUST anyone?
ReplyDelete$ENPH- Rockport Capital discloses 10% stake. 4.3M shares.
ReplyDeleteFriggin Schwab monopolizing news alerts. Nothing on TD AMTD
DeleteSheesh...this one's even on Twits...
DeleteCARB - This one that BACML was pumping on their USA1 list, stinks like dog shit.
ReplyDeleteOh, and look at that, insiders dumped 71%, How's that supposed to instill confidence?
DeleteNSPH - Nanosphere got hit today especially in the last five minutes. Traders / insiders getting out prior to tomorrow's earnings report and conference call? Probably, but what the hell ..... I know they will not make a profit for a while and they are volatile as a micro cap. I'm in for the long term and so is my eldest granddaughter. NSPH has put in a series of higher highs and lows since November. Does not help that it is a one product company. So was Gillette.
ReplyDeleteThe weather has been brutal in central Illinois. Minus -15 for the low last night. I see Atlanta is to have a severe ice storm. Natty has already responded to all this.
-15 is pretty cold man, brrrr! Is there something special concerning NSPH's product that nobody else can do and makes you believe it will be a winner?
DeleteLooks like Mark put up a new post. Good thing, b/c I'm still unable to.
ReplyDeleteGlad too see BALT up +7% today.
ReplyDeleteA little self-analysis.
ReplyDeleteI watched TLT trend down yet again today. As you know, I have about 1/3 of my funds in ATACX, which is basically tracking TLT right now. No big deal, right? Not exactly. I've been brooding for over a week, and spent lunch time with my eyes closed trying to figure things out. It comes down to this:
I've managed my accounts since the mid-nineties. And since 2004, I've been very public about my moves. I've taken full responsibility for each and every trade, win or lose.
I now have funds being actively managed by someone other than myself. And when positions are not (in my opinion) being 'properly' managed, life gets difficult. There's nothing I can do about it. I feel powerless. That's depressing.
I need to get over it. The only option is to cash out, but I'm too fatigued right now to manage money. 100% cash? Not as easy as it sounds. Cash comes with its own psychological burden: do I use it, or leave it alone? Making that seemingly simple decision on a day-to-day basis can really tire you out.
I have too much of my 'self worth' tied up in managing each twist and turn of the markets. It's unhealthy.
Delete----in' A. ATACX rotates into EM.
DeleteHow so?
DeleteYou mentioned before that you have a retirement account or something like that though that you manage for long term growth with funds or ETFs - have you thought about putting more of your investments into that approach and keeping a smaller portion for trading when you have the time and attitude to do that?
DeleteThat approach must be doing pretty well for you the last 5 years and my opinion is certainly that it continues.
I misinterpreted. Michael clarified his statement as [pending] 'follow through in China and continued weakness in long duration bonds, and we in EM.' His 'quant models' are based on 'relative momentum,' and a rotation requires 'more confirmation.'
DeleteAfter twenty years of managing my own accounts, it's a real challenge to sit silently on the sidelines!
I've thought about it, BB. That's one reason I'm beginning to hand off. I'm still hoping for a significant correction in the US indexes, but EM is close enough to a 5-10 year low that I could buy positions and leave them alone.
DeleteThis is one of the primary reasons I use Big Dave's service. It is worth the money. I can put it on auto pilot and automate the process with conditional orders. It removes MOST of my emotional baggage. When I meddle with it it is self correcting in that I almost always F it up and then watch how it works as it should. When it doesn't work, which has been quite rare, it isn't a problem. I just move on.
DeleteThe service satisfies my need to see somewhat instant results while having a 50% long term component which reinforces just following the plan and letting the market decide. The result is when the market is doing well I'm doing really well and recently when the market corrects I'm doing well. Trying to predict more than the short term was really draining.
When to Ignore the Investment Experts-
Delete"One of the more interesting aspects of the market in 2014 is how much it has managed to defy expectations. Consensus has been consistently wrong; indeed, it seems that any time there is an agreement of sorts on just about any issue, the opposite has happened.
Merrill Lynch’s legendary strategist Bob Farrell put together "10 Rules for Investing," and rule No. 9 states that “When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.” That certainly seems to be the case so far this year."
This is worth the read. I thought we would see rising interest rates and gold and silver were done like dinner.
Pfft. I just took half profits on NG today. The charts don't lie.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-11/-when-to-ignore-the-investment-experts.html
Kendra is doing interest calculations over multiple years and the correct answer doesn't include compounding. Unreal.
ReplyDeleteWhat is compounding?
DeleteCP: good move with BALT! You purchased my shares on the pullback, as I let that one go at $5.75...
ReplyDeleteBut then, I moved that money into PNPFF at $0.32 and into GLD calls. So now I am placing a sell limit order at $0.42 for the 6500 shares of PNPFF I added at $0.32. If GLD makes another jump up, will start gradually selling my calls.
to me, it seems like we are at a critical juncture with gold. The bounce so far seems pretty inline with those we have seen thre last couple of years, so either it gets serious here and moves into a real uptrend or it turns back down again fairly soon.
DeleteLots of talk on Canada's BNN about gold producer discipline, profit not sales focus, better budgeting of the full life cycle costs, etc.. but there still is danger of more writedowns and difficulties as some have done their writedown tests using $1,400 gold still (ABX).
I did buy metals company IVN.TO a couple of weeks ago, so I'm starting to think we are close as well. It was a small position and I'm planning on buying another 2 or 3 small miners over time to spread the risks.
Also, one of the best bottom picker guys I know bought HMY in December at the absolute bottom at $2.42 and he is looking to sell over $16.
David, I sold there too. Then I bought back later and offed that again. Unfortunately I didn't replacce those at the low, I waited too long, till $6.95 and flipped that once for a reload.
DeleteI don't like doing it this way, but I refuse to ride it down below my original $5.33 basis the same way I rode SVM down from $9 to $7 and kept adding, that.was killing me till BB and TOF convinced me to exit. Glad I finally listened.
Moral of the story is to take gains and prepare for a reload but first pick something that's not rolled over if possible. See the BDI, BALT may have roll(ed) over if BDI remains low?
Perhaps today won't be such a good day, if so I'll quickly take some off to appease the Gods.
That parallel to the 1996 market is holding still. Take a look at this chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#symbol=^gspc;range=19950208,19960119;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
After an early pullback below prior lows (ie below December lows) the market just took off to new highs without looking back, not allowing for an easy entry point for those sitting on the sidelines. 1996 is similar in a lot of ways because it was the year AFTER big gains in the market in 1995, valuations were pretty stretched (17X both times). 1996 saw a 4.5% correction in January, rally to new highs, then a choppy 4 month period before a 11% correction in June/July. The year ended up 19% though. From the July lows to the highs of the year the market was up 25%. Looks like it was a year for everyone: bulls and bears, traders and buy and hold people.
Earnings actually grew 7.6% in 1996. So far in the first quarter, "Total earnings for the 334 S&P 500 companies that have reported results are up +11.4%, with 69.8% beating earnings expectations. The composite picture for Q4 – combining the results for the 334 companies that have reported already with the 166 still to come – is for earnings growth of +9.1%. This will be the highest quarterly growth pace of 2013."
DeleteI've mentioned this before, but we have yet to have a period where we see Europe and the US growing steadily along with solid growth from China, India, and Brazil. I'm not sure if it will happen together but if it does I think the market could be a good deal higher than it currently is.
People complain about the low volatility in 2013, but the 1995 chart is almost a straight line.
DeleteShows how looking backwards instead of forwards can hurt. People say volatility is so low compared to the past 5 years. But the real question is how does it compare to one in a solid bull phase, and 1995 shows it can be very unvolatile.
NSPH- If they meet 2014 guidance they will end the year with about $14M in cash. I don't get today's reaction.
ReplyDeleteUp on bad news is good news, isn't it?
DeleteI wouldn't call it bad. More expected I'd say.
DeleteAt least it's not going down!
DeleteIt's volatile as a micro cap. I see a rosy future .
DeleteVTUS - Taking this one off.
ReplyDeleteNUE ih&s?
ReplyDeleteBALT - I think we see $6.20 soon.
ReplyDeleteSVM - Made it through $3 OMG! Earnings tomorrow, looks like some betting?
ReplyDeleteBuying opportunity here.
ReplyDelete"90-day breakouts & breakdowns (Bloomberg tickers)
ReplyDeleteFor 11 February 2014, 44 stocks triggered 90-day breakouts – AEM, AIV, ALXN,
ATD/B CN, AU, BDX, BTO CN, CADX, CAH, CBOE, CCA CN, CCOI, CNA, CYS,
DEI, ELS, FEIC, FEYE, FNV CN, GMCR, HSY, III CN, KGC, KRC, LUN CN, MD,
MNK, NGG, NGL, NSU CN, ORLY, POM, REGN, RGLD, SBGL, SCCO, SEP,
SXCP, TEP, TMO, TQNT, UDR, WAG and WLK.
11 stocks triggered 90-day breakdowns – BSMX, BWP, CAG, DF, EPB, NILE,
RAI, RJET, SKH, SNH and ZTS."
My wife and son got the Barry flu. I'm Mr. Mom today and waiting for the impending doom to cripple me too.
ReplyDeleteSeems to me that the commodities area is doing well. Also the steel stocks look like they're beginning another rally. AKS looks interesting...fairly low risk trade.
T -17.5hr....
DeleteThis is pretty spot on, huh: comparison between today's DJIA and that of 1929:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.arabianmoney.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/MW-BU310_scary__20140210132547_MG.jpg
Lot of talk on that chart:
Deletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/1929-stock-market-crash-chart-is-garbage-2014-2
Plus also lines up with many other years including the 1996 one you were talking about before:
DeleteDJIA, latest 400 trading days correlation all >95%, year 1929, 1936, 1946, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1987, 1996. Take your pick!
Never hurts to consider both sides I guess. I like that people are talking about it. It's when they don't and everything seems good that scares me. If we can get a nice move higher in emerging markets then I would think a lot of worries would go away and then it might be a good time to expect a crash
DeleteTo me, this feels like an inverse of the whipsaw we experienced in 2011.
DeleteCADC - Earnings report this morning.
ReplyDeleteAlmost shorted FSLR into the close. I kinda think these solar stocks are ready to pull back.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.timmelvin.com/the-power-of-the-individual-invesrtor/
ReplyDeletegood article
Very good article about how big iTunes is...maybe multiple should be higher for AAPL
ReplyDeletehttp://www.asymco.com/2014/02/10/fortune-130/
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +12 1097
ReplyDeleteTesting the 50SMA here. Mark, any idea on what the guidance might be like?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Looks like $6.12 is today's price to beat.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Never know what's going on with this one seems like there are so many moving parts to keep track of. Santander Mexico downgraded by CITI, could be an opportunity?... Mexico's economy should be one of the better-off, I thought?
ReplyDeleteBSMX - "To be sure, Citi still likes Mexico overall and maintains a Buy rating on SanMex’s peers Banorte (GBOOY) and Grupo Financiero Interacciones. The broker does not like SanMex for its “company specific factors, mainly an inflated 2013 profit base and a too optimistic consensus view of underlying profitability. Santander Brazil has seen a consistent pattern of earnings downgrades since its IPO in 4Q09. While we do not wish to draw such parallels, considering Brazilian market developments (weak macro, competition, NPLs etc) and company specific issues in Brazil, we do believe investors may have in the back of their minds the Brazil performance. Before taking comfort in PE valuations, they will want to be reassured the profit estimates of Santander’s Mexican operations have bottomed, and are a fair reflection of underlying profitability.”
DeleteOr, it could be this week's rioting going on in Brazil?
DeleteBSBR - I think if this one closes better than 4.83 it should be bought. And, it looks like it might.
ReplyDeleteEvery time it pops it's head above water for me it slips back below.
DeleteLooks like someone wants to hold it down, maybe trying to get a capitulation? Up into close? It's not low enough yet for me to add......
DeleteBALT - Now it's over $5, does it seem like the dynamics have changed?
ReplyDeleteMark, You realize of course that plant you have at the top of the page is actually a nuclear reactor.....?
ReplyDeleteplanet
DeleteAll I know is tomorrows Friday.
DeleteTCK - Say what, how is $0.40 below $0.29?
ReplyDelete"Teck Resources Ltd: 4Q13 In-line with consensus, but 2014 outlook weakens
2/13/2014 2:20 PM
TCK reported adjusted EPS of $0.40/share, in-line with consensus of $0.43 and below our estimate of $0.29. 2014 production outlook weakens with lower YoY copper and zinc production expected. Coal costs are expected to increase. Fort Hills capex in 2014 expected to be $955mn out of a capex budget of $2.9bn (37%). Coal and copper expansions pending."
ANR - Seems like a good day to buy this one as $5 seems to be attracting attention, the clincher is BACML has assigned a $4 price objective so you know it's not going that low, most likely up and BACML is accumulating.
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Looks like another bear flag. I'm frigging shocked, shocked I tell you, that Cramer's followers are getting crushed on this one.
ReplyDeleteGap down - Nice trick, gaping the market down this morning.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Still lifting, quite nice! Honestly, I don't get it though.
ReplyDeleteBAH - Holy moly...
ReplyDeleteNRG - Holy crap.
ReplyDeleteThe thermal solar plant for Chile is considerably more expensive but it's set up to provide electricity 24x7, not sure if NRG's plant can do that:
Delete"Economy & Trade News
This week in business: pioneering solar plant, crippling port strikes
By Daphne Karnezis
Published On: Wed, Jan 15th, 2014
Massive solar development
Abengoa will build South America’s largest solar-thermal power plant in the Atacama Desert after the Energy Ministry and Economic Development Agency (Corfo) announced the Spanish company as winner of the tender to construct the US$1 billion plant last Thursday.
The 110-megawatt plant, which will be located in the María Elena District, will use molten salt tower technology. Construction is due to start in the second half of 2014."
I think Branson has it figured out concerning solar, there are many places in the world solar can be used instead of fossil or nuclear fuels. Especially if a cheaper silicon source is right around the corner, something like that would stand the industry on it's head:
ReplyDeletehttp://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/04/richard-branson-renewable-energy/?source=yahoo_quote
ImPortland will pay carriers to stay. I guess this is West Coast competition heating up, ahead of the Panama Canal expansion.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.opb.org/news/article/port-of-portland-launches-program-to-encourage-carriers/
So, the East Coast harbors will need to be upgraded for the larger ships, perhaps that should be good for companies like GLDD, no?
Steel - This is positive for steel producers, right?
ReplyDelete"Craig Meyer, president of Jones Lang LaSalle’s industrial brokerage team, advises clients that are looking for warehouse space in hot markets such as Southern California, Northern New Jersey and Dallas to focus on the property that best suits their needs and to move decisively to close the deal.
Demand for industrial real estate is increasing, vacancy rates are dropping and construction is at a 60-year low. These conditions are forcing rents higher. “Be aware, conditions have changed,” Meyer said.
During and immediately after the 2008-09 economic recession, retailers, manufacturers and importers would send out multiple requests for rental quotes, looking for a suitable property at the best price. With a national vacancy rate of 12 percent during the recession, and 9.4 percent as recently as the fourth quarter of 2011, that was a good strategy."
Mark what did u give me 17 hours? It's here...ugh
ReplyDeleteSorry bro. At least up here it was quick. Take it easy.
Deletesun above, sea below
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqwhMq2Vmcg
Hawaiian
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/profile?user=mountainapplecompany&src_vid=V1bFr2SWP1I&feature=iv&annotation_id=annotation_578920
SVM - Woops!
ReplyDeleteCLF - A beat!
SVM- Ouchie.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Had a nice C&H, amazing.
ReplyDeletePAL - Was that a knockout before the ramp? Hard to believe.
ReplyDeleteEmerging /Markets/ Love The One You're With
ReplyDeleteBRIC funds are starting to look like abandoned brick warehouses in Detroit! Trashed, gutted, and left to transient day traders.
US indexes, on the other hand, continue to show resilience.
If you own positions in emerging markets, it's time to embrace them. I plan on scaling into Brazil (EWZ), China (FXI), Chile (ECH) and Indonesia (IDX) over the next few weeks. The best trades will typically stall before they take off. Bay Area real estate stalled between '93 to '97, then soared 2-3x in as many years with the dot.com boom. It stalled again in the early 2000s, leading 'smart' players to sell 'at the top-' just before rocketing again through 2008. Corrected through 2010, only to hit new highs in 2012. Emerging markets will perform likewise, and could easily return 2-3x over the next 3-5 years. As always, JMHO.
Were I permitted to 'new post,' the above would be it.
DeleteACI - 38% ownership in the Wash state port export terminal
ReplyDeleteSGG - Sugar down again, good for ethanol producers.
ReplyDelete2nd- Are you sure your signed in under the correct goolge account? I know you have a few and this has happened to me before.
ReplyDeleteNew postage.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +9 1106
ReplyDelete