Watching ATACX trend down the past two days along with the long bond has been difficult. I can't help but play armchair quarterback. But that's the point of my decision. Handing off means hands off. I have to let them play their game.
They don't need some shareholder looking over their shoulder, suggesting they sell TLT and rotate into TBT @ 10 am, or take a position in EEM 15 minutes before market close based on his sixth sense.
More to the point, I've displayed superb timing recently. Was I not the genius who bought Friday's selloff and closed quickly for losses? Small losses, sure. A little more patience would have transformed the losses into decent gains.
It's always tough adjusting your investment style. I'm sure you'll change or challenge your position on a daily basis until you finally adjust. I question my positions on a daily basis. It's healthy.
One smart guy I know has done a study and says that, when investing, stocks or trends revert to the mean in the long run, but follow momentum in the short run.
The hard part about short term trading is that it is very hard to know when the momentum shifts as that is more about figuring out the mentality of other traders.
But long term investing is not easy either, but I think better odds. For example, I am as confident as I can be that interest rates will rise and would put money into that. On the other side, you would think that telco usage would continue to grow like it has for the last 100 years and be a good place to invest, but perhaps that is not the case and they are near their peak. Not sure, but I'm avoiding telco's for because of this.
At the least it looks like they should rally nicely from here. Fitting that nat gas has pulled back hard since the peak and THEN they rally. KOL ANR ACI WLT all double bottoms with positive divergences
Looking ENPH chart over, my feeling is if the market holds up then ENPH might rally into earnings. Or, it could go sideways. If though, excellent earnings are leaked, then I could see longs getting squeezed further going into earnings, then the big gap up occurs on earnings release.
SPY - So, it looks like we moved into the right shoulder congestion zone of the ih&s today, obligatory resistance levels persisting only briefly are indicators of market sentiment. The gaps up serve to leave bystanders high and dry with no alternative except to chase.
LOL! I don't have beliefs. If it retraces then I'm good. If it rolls over and follows the MA's and arrow, I'm good. If it does roll over and continue down then there are some former high fliers that will make good shorts as would the indices. I just let the market decide....way less stress.
Gasoline isn't free, it will and can never be free. Look at the longer trend and you'll see proof of this. Sorry but, don't delude yourself with fabricated stories.
I actually owned that one about 8 or 10 years ago back when I didn't know much about investing and used the Motley Fools Hidden Gems newsletter. They were very bullish on that one a while ago.
CBD/SBS/JBSAY - Trying to watch these to get a feeling on Brazilian sentiment. JBSAY does have debt issued in $US, not sure the ratio or if hedged in some way(s).
I wonder how many people are done with the market after this 6% pullback? how many people bought in November/December/January and sat through this downturn and cursed themselves over and over for being so stupid, knowing it was all a facade, a charade, supported entirely by the Fed? There has to be a ton of people out there. This is not an easy game.
2/7/14 - Corn prices saw a little light selling overnight but are moving off lows back towards even. While most of the action was in beans this week, corn also posted a break out on its chart on short covering and ideas demand is a little better than expected.
USDA could confirm that in Monday's report, lowering carryout by 25 million to 50 million bushels. While more news about Chinese cancellations hit the corn market yesterday, rejected cargoes are being snapped up by other buyers. USDA confirmed 8.66 million bushels containing an unapproved GMO trait were rejected by China under its daily reporting system for large deals. The Weekly Export sales report also showed another shipment of 2.4 million bushels was rerouted to Vietnam following a similar rejection, and trade reports today said other loads are being diverted to South Korea.
Corn made new highs despite that news, thanks to a huge overall week of sales, 66.9 million bushels, including 31.5 million by Japan alone.
The preliminary report from the CBOT showed total volume in corn jumping almost 20% to 407,268. Open interest gained 7,199 despite today's start to the Goldman roll, when funds following the commodity index move nearby positions forward.
Had I day traded the funds I put into ATACX this week, the funds would be up +4.5% instead of down -1.34%. It would kind of pay for the landscaping we had done this summer. Pool demolition + fill-in, new lawns, new drainage pipes, new irrigation/sprinkler complex, driveway pavers (wife knows how to negotiate, and we received killer bids on all) .
Still think I made the right move, but pardon me while I down a tumbler of E&J vsop (remember my foray into brandy?) so as not to brood too much.
I recall playing the AHM (American Home Mortgage) short squeeze August '07. I banked a year's worth of mortgage payments going long that POS. Two weeks later the company was dead.
Interesting article concerning fossil fuels and US energy export policy: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-the-u-s-exports-global-warming-20140203
How much more expensive are wind and solar, are we getting value? http://notrickszone.com/2012/08/18/financial-times-deutschalnd-talks-openly-about-germanys-dirty-wind-energy-secret/
Comparing multinational carbon based energy companies to multinational wind/solar energy companies is hardly shocking. They are both centralized sources run for profit by investment firms. There is a difference in carbon output and over time the wind/solar pays off because of the lifespan of the generation facilities. ie: the sun comes up everyday and the wind blows regularly. For oil/gas/coal there is constant replacement and pollution. So I find this guy just talking book. The real answer is to go to decentralized generation (on individual homes) and invest in preserving/conserving the energy we waste. I don't mind saying, this guy is off kilter by a huge margin. Look at the vast differences in energy sources in this chart from Lawrence Livermore Labs and read the small print at the bottom. Residential and commercial sectors energy efficiency 65%. 80% for industrial and 21% for transportation. We waste a hell of a lot of the power and finite resources we pay for. They have no where near the payback of wind and solar, especially pump up generation storing off-peak generation. Conservation would be far less expensive than either.
If you are interested in uranium, CCJ released results after the close yesterday and have a good deal of information on how they see the industry shaking out.
Barrons also had a positive writeup this weekend - google "Digging Value: Unloved Uranium Miner Is Cheap" to get past the paywall
Stock is expensive now on a P/E basis, but we are likely at trough earnings, so depends on how high prices go. No rush to get in, but very interesting.
CCJ - Looks like a decent place on the chart to try one's luck. URG as well. Apparently they convinced a few people the uranium business isn't dead. Why not just dredge the 750,000 tons of tailings dumped in Great Bear Lake?
Right, but you can't know it's bottoming until it bottoms. Pull back and look at the weekly over a few years. This thing could easily got to $7.50 which would make a double look like a day trade.
VALE - Judging by the VALE chart, this guy's got it all wrong: http://e360.yale.edu/feature/global_scarcity_scramble_for_dwindling_natural_resources/2531/ JOY - This one has retraced 50% of it's Jan selling spree. Plenty of length remaining in this pendant to make a trader really happy.
CALM - Wonder if this one will participate in the chickenpookie to diesel fuel revolution? http://biomassmagazine.com/articles/1323/mobile-pyrolysis-plant-converts-poultry-litter-to-energy
GM/Ford Boost Discounts on Big Trucks? 4~5 months of inventory, 2 months excess. Could be weather but not sure if mfg already cut in anticipation, never get the full story. I wish this company was public: http://vigilantsolutions.com/category/press
SGG - (+ for PEIX?) I'm noticing SGG responded to the rain in Brazil news and saw this: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-09/global-sugar-surplus-seen-by-kingsman-extending-into-fifth-year.html OINK - Boy, what a sinker Friday was for the pig! I dunno guys, the news feeds seem pretty downbeat, and in some cases trying to place a positive spin on otherwise hard to swallow news of slowing growth throughout SE Asia.
ATACX - 2nd, where do you locate info on their current positions?
mREIT's have been lifting. NLY's gap down closed Friday and possibly that's where some selling occurred as gap players took gains. SRS seems to be at support, could begin lifting from here considering econ news appears to be weakening. RH - Mark's RH lifted nicely, not a peep from him???? Banks, Oil, Gold - That's the cycle, right? Seems XLF has rolled and bounced, USO broke out, and GLD popped above trend line.
IDX - Notice this one pierced through the upper trend line. Looks too early to say this one's dead meat, unless it turns down from here first. EWS - Two gaps up this week, off support that's ben tested 3 times over the past year. Can't say this one's going into the toilet from here, looks more like it's oversold.
2nd - One thing to keep in mind with your new investment manager: this past week was one of extreme moves. Down huge on Monday (2%+), then up huge Tuesday to Friday (3%+). That's abnormal. These moves could, and probably will, reverse by Monday/Tuesday. Even if you went long on Monday's close, do you think you would have held through Friday's gains?
Some morning videos that show how Market/Volume Profile traders think about these balance zones and potential transitions. May be of interest. They certainly have helped me ...
The Tokyo election will probably be viewed as a positive for the Yen, a return to nuclear power for Japan may even add to recent gains in uranium miners but already there's been quite a move so the early birds may be selling into strength (as they did with natty last week)?
Will a rising Yen (based on Japan's reversal on nuclear power) cause the market to become jittery? I guess this will give the BOJ an opportunity to continue their monetary policy.
Germany votes on the constitutionality of the ECB programs March 18th, this event might prove interesting?
This is an exciting technology for solar cell production and worth looking into IMO, a direct to silicon wafer furnace would resolve the most expensive part of manufacturing them.
"The company has so far raised US$62 million in start-up rounds, which has included Tokuyama Corporation, North Bridge Venture Partners, Polaris Venture Partners, VantagePoint Capital Partners and Energy Technology Ventures (a joint venture involving General Electric, NRG Energy and ConocoPhillips). "
Here it says they're using silver and aluminum on the silicon substrate, to construct this cell: "The company claims its silicon wafers are translating into cell efficiencies of 17.2 percent in customer trials, based on what Mierlo called "vanilla cell architecture" (screen-printed silver on the front, aluminum paste on the back); earlier this year the company showed a 17.5 percent efficient cell made with more a complicated highly passivated backside. (That 17.2 percent also is around the range of other recent industry marks for standard-sized multicrystalline solar cells.) The company has had successful customer trials with four customers so far, he added."
I guess they might also need to use silver on the back as well, as this construction technique discusses: http://pveducation.org/pvcdrom/manufacturing/screen-printed
This is to make the silicon substrate for solar cells. Instead of growing a log shaped ingot as it's always been done, this company has developed a way to lift a silicon layer off the top of a molten silicon surface. MUCH CHEAPER silicon = MUCH cheaper solar cell cost!
For example, Solyndra was depositing a thin film silicon onto a glass substrate (cylindrically shaped for ability to collect light at multiple angles) which gave competitive results when ingot-grown silicon prices were high but lost their ass when ingot-grown wafer prices cratered. This means if this process works (seems plausible) then the thin film silicon process is dead meat and price/watt of the new lifted substrate lowers the cost to manufacturer solar grade silicon tremendously.
FSLR uses a silicon on glass deposition process (I think), so when/if this comes to production in volume, FSLR's process won't compete either. MEMC won't be selling competitive solar silicon either.
That is, molten silicon(high purity sand) direct to wafer, instead of growing an log shaped ingot and slicing it up many thousand times to make wafers using diamond saws (and maybe now sliced using lasers, I'm not sure).
Immigration rules were relaxed. Does this relieve unemployment or wage disinflation? I already know Corporate America wants cheaper labor, our government agrees?.
You're great at that! :) I'm trying to check out NRG, one of the investors and receiving contracts from the likes of Sir Richard Branson to replace diesel gen sets with solar.
In reading some of the posts by Ryan Detrick it certainly seems like a lot of people were betting on more downside last week. http://eyevest.com/ tracks commentary from "experts" on CNBC and they have been pretty bearish/cautious for the past week as well.
Windows Ultimate Booster" will speed your computer and fix the buggy operating system it came with" (the one that allows spyware) - Should I click YES and enter my ATM card number?
I haven't done any significant research on this but I've noticed that when a chart shows a significant (and consistent) increase in volume on the weekly chart after a bottoming period with low volume, there is typically a very big move that follows it within 9 months. I've noticed this on the solar stocks and a bunch of other momentum/high fliers lately including stocks like HIMX and PATK.
this is another thing that I find very promising for BALT. I would have to imagine part of it is a sign that institutions are quietly accumulating the stock.
Yep, winter seems to be resuming so another surge isn't out of the question and this may just be the pause that refreshes. I expect coal should get more respect, confirming these circumstances. That's how the market works, right, no positive signals whatsoever then BANG, gap up.
ADM - See the volume at recent lows and how it drops off as price rises a bit. To me, this indicates strong interest b/c there are no sellers when price lifts.
NRG - These guys seem actively involved in the solar energy space: http://www.forbes.com/sites/heatherclancy/2013/11/11/need-solar-in-a-hurry-nrg-energy-launches-preconfigured-canopy/
SGG - Still dropping, mountains of subsidized sugar makes great feedstock for PEIX. The hell with putting real sweeteners in soda drinks, load them with synthesized corn sugar and make large bottles illegal b/c there aren't enough small plastic cups fowling the fragile aquatic life in NY harbor.
5 feet of snow in Tahoe, eh? BAH - Neutral -> Buy BACML I'm guessing this must be a top.... BALT - Well, that trade actually filled @ $5.93 but woops, guess I didn't wait quite long enough.
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"India business: Losses mount, but may have peaked India business losses widened with EBITDA margin at minus 4.3%. Sales declined 27% at Rs 77.7bn, largely in line implying impact of negative leverage and competition being much higher than anticipated. We continue to retain our negative stance on demand across key operating segments, but expect margins to recover on cost-cutting initiatives and some traction from upcoming launches. Balance sheet manageable JLR’s strong operating cash flows (GBP ~950mn in Q3) and cash/undrawn facilities (GBP 1.3bn) have not only eased concerns over funding constraints for capex next fiscal (GBP3.5-3.7bn), but also increases the possibility of continued dividend payouts to support parent operations. We expect net gearing to remain comfortable at 0.2x (India business 1.2x)."
FMD earnings were actually pretty solid and the fact that they are kind of re-entering the securitization market through reselling their loans makes this a little more interesting than just a month ago.
The problem is the fat cat (and boy is he fat!) at the top deems it shareholder friendly to pay everyone exorbitant fees for their "valuable" analytical work and to fly around in a private jet on the company dime. The sooner someone with some claws digs into the chest of that company and rips out the extra heart, the better. This is one situation where activism could do some good.
Curling is a term for drinking bear, isn't it? Kidding! Definitely the market is awaiting Yellen tomorrow and I get the impression isn't expecting she'll be particularly accommodating, either.
Scary stuff huh? How about this to get you out of the stock right before it catapults higher:
"In recent years, Chinese solar companies have flooded the PV market with supply. Their foray into the industry has been so bold, in fact, that some have accused China of selling PV cells and modules at below cost, in order to win market share and drive competitors out of business. Some of First Solar's largest competitors in the last decade, including the now-bankrupt and Nasdaq-delisted companies Evergreen Solar (OTC:ESLRQ) and Energy Conversion Devices (ENERQ.PK), have fallen victim to these price wars and oversupply, whereas their Chinese counterparts, like Yingli (YGE) and Trina Solar (TSL), have emerged as worldwide leaders. As a result of China's concerted effort, the cost of solar modules fell 50% in 2011 alone. In reaction to China's tactics, in March of 2012 the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed tariffs on Chinese-made solar cells and panels. However, with the tariffs only ranging from 3 percent to 5 percent, they won't have any real impact on the ability of U.S. solar companies to compete globally. If the U.S. solar industry is to rebound, much of its rebound will depend on how the government reacts to aggressive pricing tactics, like those used by the Chinese in the last two years."
we curl pretty much the same as on TV although those guys are, of course, much better. I play on 3 teams and my one skip was the Illinois State Champion and she'll call those difficult shots you see on TV, but the other guys are more straight-forward.
Something fun to do in the winter, especially a winter like this one when we've had so many below 0 Fahrenheit days and it is tough to get outside. Finishes up at the end of March, just in time for golf season.
They don't need some shareholder looking over their shoulder, suggesting they sell TLT and rotate into TBT @ 10 am, or take a position in EEM 15 minutes before market close based on his sixth sense.
ReplyDeleteMore to the point, I've displayed superb timing recently. Was I not the genius who bought Friday's selloff and closed quickly for losses? Small losses, sure. A little more patience would have transformed the losses into decent gains.
DeleteThey'll flip if necessary. I reacted today, to halt BALT's recent incline dead in it's tracks
DeleteIt's always tough adjusting your investment style. I'm sure you'll change or challenge your position on a daily basis until you finally adjust. I question my positions on a daily basis. It's healthy.
DeleteI actually read the CC Tof, and he said "In fact" 3 times. They also, in fact, lost .05.
ReplyDeletehaha.
DeleteShanghai didn't miss a beat after Chinese New Year.
ReplyDeleteI really feel bad for day traders. There's no way in hell you can predict these crazy short term moves. Its best to stick with longer term trends.
ReplyDeleteOne smart guy I know has done a study and says that, when investing, stocks or trends revert to the mean in the long run, but follow momentum in the short run.
DeleteThe hard part about short term trading is that it is very hard to know when the momentum shifts as that is more about figuring out the mentality of other traders.
But long term investing is not easy either, but I think better odds. For example, I am as confident as I can be that interest rates will rise and would put money into that. On the other side, you would think that telco usage would continue to grow like it has for the last 100 years and be a good place to invest, but perhaps that is not the case and they are near their peak. Not sure, but I'm avoiding telco's for because of this.
I really think coal stocks have bottomed.
ReplyDeleteAt the least it looks like they should rally nicely from here. Fitting that nat gas has pulled back hard since the peak and THEN they rally. KOL ANR ACI WLT all double bottoms with positive divergences
DeleteWorks for me. Amazing the week could go positive.
DeleteI was thinking the same thing yesterday afternoon.
DeleteSadly not for me though. That 10% hit on ENPH Monday left a scar.
DeleteAren't you in ENPH from under $6, and was there a reason for the smackdown (I like low prices, could be my entry here)?
DeleteCP- Yes, basis is about 5.60. No reason other than a crappy weather and a really bad market that day I guess.
DeleteLooking ENPH chart over, my feeling is if the market holds up then ENPH might rally into earnings. Or, it could go sideways.
DeleteIf though, excellent earnings are leaked, then I could see longs getting squeezed further going into earnings, then the big gap up occurs on earnings release.
Nice, not only a fake move pre-market, but a gap up on the SPY ETF!
ReplyDeleteA small gap up for SPY yesterday as well, looks like.
DeleteI'd have to imagine we pull back if we get up to the 50 DMA around 1810, even if we go higher ultimately.
DeleteUnemployment down for the right reason, participation rate increased
ReplyDeleteRobot was short from 1788, flipped long @ 1767 yesterday
SPY - So, it looks like we moved into the right shoulder congestion zone of the ih&s today, obligatory resistance levels persisting only briefly are indicators of market sentiment. The gaps up serve to leave bystanders high and dry with no alternative except to chase.
ReplyDeleteChase then get stopped out of course.
DeleteA chance for a short entry?
DeleteSure, if you really believe the "Magic Carpet Ride" is about to unravel.
DeleteLOL! I don't have beliefs. If it retraces then I'm good. If it rolls over and follows the MA's and arrow, I'm good. If it does roll over and continue down then there are some former high fliers that will make good shorts as would the indices. I just let the market decide....way less stress.
DeleteCXO - Guys, this one's leaving coal in the dust.
ReplyDeleteToday's volume is 4.24x, so far.
DeleteIs the US press blowing Sochi issues out of proportion?
ReplyDeleteVote here: __________
Gasoline isn't free, it will and can never be free. Look at the longer trend and you'll see proof of this. Sorry but, don't delude yourself with fabricated stories.
ReplyDeleteCXO - Today's gap up could be a continuation gap, I bet it is!
ReplyDelete$28B was moved out of equities and placed into bonds. Ha, ha, then they get hosed.
ReplyDeletePRAA - I always thought this one seemed interesting.
I actually owned that one about 8 or 10 years ago back when I didn't know much about investing and used the Motley Fools Hidden Gems newsletter. They were very bullish on that one a while ago.
DeleteI did always wonder how Subway was able to make their bread tough, like leather.
ReplyDeleteBMY - Closed the Oct gap up obligation, "Takin' Care Of Business", Bears keep standing by, hoping for free gasoline!
ReplyDeleteCBD/SBS/JBSAY - Trying to watch these to get a feeling on Brazilian sentiment. JBSAY does have debt issued in $US, not sure the ratio or if hedged in some way(s).
ReplyDeleteNM having another good day, back up over $10.00.
ReplyDeleteSeems shipping is not dead!
I wonder how much of this is false hope. BDI still down in the dumps.
DeleteMy suspicion is the BDI won't lift for a few months, assuming it does at some point.
DeleteI wonder how many people are done with the market after this 6% pullback? how many people bought in November/December/January and sat through this downturn and cursed themselves over and over for being so stupid, knowing it was all a facade, a charade, supported entirely by the Fed? There has to be a ton of people out there. This is not an easy game.
ReplyDeleteQuite a few, based on price action.
DeleteF*** the EU: Senior US diplomat Victoria Nuland makes her position.
ReplyDelete2/7/14 - Corn prices saw a little light selling overnight but are moving off lows back towards even. While most of the action was in beans this week, corn also posted a break out on its chart on short covering and ideas demand is a little better than expected.
ReplyDeleteUSDA could confirm that in Monday's report, lowering carryout by 25 million to 50 million bushels. While more news about Chinese cancellations hit the corn market yesterday, rejected cargoes are being snapped up by other buyers. USDA confirmed 8.66 million bushels containing an unapproved GMO trait were rejected by China under its daily reporting system for large deals. The Weekly Export sales report also showed another shipment of 2.4 million bushels was rerouted to Vietnam following a similar rejection, and trade reports today said other loads are being diverted to South Korea.
Corn made new highs despite that news, thanks to a huge overall week of sales, 66.9 million bushels, including 31.5 million by Japan alone.
The preliminary report from the CBOT showed total volume in corn jumping almost 20% to 407,268. Open interest gained 7,199 despite today's start to the Goldman roll, when funds following the commodity index move nearby positions forward.
http://farmfutures.com/story-morning-market-review-bryce-knorr-22-30780
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/resource_center/expert_insight/todays_market/recent_commentary/schwab_market_perspective.html
ReplyDeleteThe 2nd chart above is really interesting to me. Shows how much potential there is for growth
DeleteDUST - Looks like a good entry level here? Volume picked up.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you do when there's no nuclear power?
ReplyDeletehttp://thebreakthrough.org/images/main_image/germany_coal_renewables.jpg
VNDA - Higher lows
ReplyDeleteHad I day traded the funds I put into ATACX this week, the funds would be up +4.5% instead of down -1.34%. It would kind of pay for the landscaping we had done this summer. Pool demolition + fill-in, new lawns, new drainage pipes, new irrigation/sprinkler complex, driveway pavers (wife knows how to negotiate, and we received killer bids on all) .
ReplyDeleteStill think I made the right move, but pardon me while I down a tumbler of E&J vsop (remember my foray into brandy?) so as not to brood too much.
It's way too early to say you made a mistake, the recent rally has stopped at resistance and TLT is back testing the 20/200SMA cross.
DeleteTime horizon is everything.
DeleteI recall playing the AHM (American Home Mortgage) short squeeze August '07. I banked a year's worth of mortgage payments going long that POS. Two weeks later the company was dead.
DeleteDBC - Man, keep your eyes on the road......
ReplyDeleteHXM - Up 40% this past week.
ReplyDeleteInteresting article concerning fossil fuels and US energy export policy:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-the-u-s-exports-global-warming-20140203
DGAZ - Still no takers? I guess the production is coming back on line and demand should ease.
ReplyDeleteMorning Boyz
ReplyDeleteIf I could reach through this screen, I'd hand you a hot cup o' Joe! Morning to you and yourz! :)
DeleteGood timing!!! My coffee press broke this am!
DeleteI can post, but I can't 'new post.' Anyone else have that problem?
ReplyDeleteNew Post - This is a test.
ReplyDeleteToo funny.
Delete:)
DeleteFBP - Oops, BACML's EM buy stock slipped.
ReplyDeletePineapple Express.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_25088877/california-drought-desperately-needed-rain-courtesy-pineapple-express
It's beginning to snow here.
DeleteHow much more expensive are wind and solar, are we getting value?
ReplyDeletehttp://notrickszone.com/2012/08/18/financial-times-deutschalnd-talks-openly-about-germanys-dirty-wind-energy-secret/
Comparing multinational carbon based energy companies to multinational wind/solar energy companies is hardly shocking. They are both centralized sources run for profit by investment firms. There is a difference in carbon output and over time the wind/solar pays off because of the lifespan of the generation facilities. ie: the sun comes up everyday and the wind blows regularly. For oil/gas/coal there is constant replacement and pollution. So I find this guy just talking book. The real answer is to go to decentralized generation (on individual homes) and invest in preserving/conserving the energy we waste. I don't mind saying, this guy is off kilter by a huge margin. Look at the vast differences in energy sources in this chart from Lawrence Livermore Labs and read the small print at the bottom. Residential and commercial sectors energy efficiency 65%. 80% for industrial and 21% for transportation. We waste a hell of a lot of the power and finite resources we pay for. They have no where near the payback of wind and solar, especially pump up generation storing off-peak generation. Conservation would be far less expensive than either.
DeletePAL - 0.02¢ from the 52wk low, closed $0.39, LOD
ReplyDeleteIBM - So if IBM is selling off their semiconductor business then who's going to develop graphine transistors?
ReplyDeleteIf you are interested in uranium, CCJ released results after the close yesterday and have a good deal of information on how they see the industry shaking out.
ReplyDeleteBarrons also had a positive writeup this weekend - google "Digging Value: Unloved Uranium Miner Is Cheap" to get past the paywall
Stock is expensive now on a P/E basis, but we are likely at trough earnings, so depends on how high prices go. No rush to get in, but very interesting.
CCJ - Looks like a decent place on the chart to try one's luck. URG as well. Apparently they convinced a few people the uranium business isn't dead.
DeleteWhy not just dredge the 750,000 tons of tailings dumped in Great Bear Lake?
URZ has a good looking chart. A lot of the uraniums have bottoming charts.
DeleteRight, except I wanted to enter these late last year while crickets were chirping as opposed to now. URZ is merely 100% off 52wk low.
DeleteRight, but you can't know it's bottoming until it bottoms. Pull back and look at the weekly over a few years. This thing could easily got to $7.50 which would make a double look like a day trade.
DeleteVALE - Judging by the VALE chart, this guy's got it all wrong:
ReplyDeletehttp://e360.yale.edu/feature/global_scarcity_scramble_for_dwindling_natural_resources/2531/
JOY - This one has retraced 50% of it's Jan selling spree. Plenty of length remaining in this pendant to make a trader really happy.
CPST - This time looks different, has CPST become a utility equipment vendor to oil companies expanding themselves into utilities?
ReplyDeleteThey've gotten some contacts in that area.
DeleteMillipore- I keep forgetting MRK bought this excellent filtration mfg. company out from under me..
ReplyDeleteChickenpookie is the solution to pollution!
ReplyDeletehttp://e360.yale.edu/feature/as_uses_of_biochar_expand_climate_benefits_still_uncertain/2730/
CALM - Wonder if this one will participate in the chickenpookie to diesel fuel revolution?
ReplyDeletehttp://biomassmagazine.com/articles/1323/mobile-pyrolysis-plant-converts-poultry-litter-to-energy
FLY - This guy is big time bearish, makes me really nervous even though I don't know the guy.
ReplyDeleteGM/Ford Boost Discounts on Big Trucks? 4~5 months of inventory, 2 months excess. Could be weather but not sure if mfg already cut in anticipation, never get the full story.
ReplyDeleteI wish this company was public:
http://vigilantsolutions.com/category/press
TDW - This puppy has been pummeled, WTF!
ReplyDeleteSGG - (+ for PEIX?) I'm noticing SGG responded to the rain in Brazil news and saw this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-09/global-sugar-surplus-seen-by-kingsman-extending-into-fifth-year.html
OINK - Boy, what a sinker Friday was for the pig!
I dunno guys, the news feeds seem pretty downbeat, and in some cases trying to place a positive spin on otherwise hard to swallow news of slowing growth throughout SE Asia.
ATACX - 2nd, where do you locate info on their current positions?
ReplyDeletemREIT's have been lifting. NLY's gap down closed Friday and possibly that's where some selling occurred as gap players took gains.
SRS seems to be at support, could begin lifting from here considering econ news appears to be weakening.
RH - Mark's RH lifted nicely, not a peep from him????
Banks, Oil, Gold - That's the cycle, right? Seems XLF has rolled and bounced, USO broke out, and GLD popped above trend line.
Pro-nuclear politician wins race to become Tokyo's new governor, exit polls show, in show of public support for nuclear power.
ReplyDeleteBMW - Chinese sales surged 20% in January. I've heard good comments on BMW vehicles through the grapevine lately, switching to BMW from Audi "junk".
ReplyDeleteHXM - C&H move done now, my guess.
ReplyDeleteIDX - Notice this one pierced through the upper trend line. Looks too early to say this one's dead meat, unless it turns down from here first.
ReplyDeleteEWS - Two gaps up this week, off support that's ben tested 3 times over the past year. Can't say this one's going into the toilet from here, looks more like it's oversold.
2nd - One thing to keep in mind with your new investment manager: this past week was one of extreme moves. Down huge on Monday (2%+), then up huge Tuesday to Friday (3%+). That's abnormal. These moves could, and probably will, reverse by Monday/Tuesday. Even if you went long on Monday's close, do you think you would have held through Friday's gains?
ReplyDeleteSome morning videos that show how Market/Volume Profile traders think about these balance zones and potential transitions. May be of interest. They certainly have helped me ...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/user/FuturesTrader71/videos
The Tokyo election will probably be viewed as a positive for the Yen, a return to nuclear power for Japan may even add to recent gains in uranium miners but already there's been quite a move so the early birds may be selling into strength (as they did with natty last week)?
ReplyDeleteWill a rising Yen (based on Japan's reversal on nuclear power) cause the market to become jittery? I guess this will give the BOJ an opportunity to continue their monetary policy.
Germany votes on the constitutionality of the ECB programs March 18th, this event might prove interesting?
This is an exciting technology for solar cell production and worth looking into IMO, a direct to silicon wafer furnace would resolve the most expensive part of manufacturing them.
ReplyDelete"The company has so far raised US$62 million in start-up rounds, which has included Tokuyama Corporation, North Bridge Venture Partners, Polaris Venture Partners, VantagePoint Capital Partners and Energy Technology Ventures (a joint venture involving General Electric, NRG Energy and ConocoPhillips). "
http://www.pv-tech.org/news/1366_technologies_to_ramp_direct_wafer_production
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-10-15/1366-technologies-receives-15-million-for-solar-wafer-factory
Here it says they're using silver and aluminum on the silicon substrate, to construct this cell:
Delete"The company claims its silicon wafers are translating into cell efficiencies of 17.2 percent in customer trials, based on what Mierlo called "vanilla cell architecture" (screen-printed silver on the front, aluminum paste on the back); earlier this year the company showed a 17.5 percent efficient cell made with more a complicated highly passivated backside. (That 17.2 percent also is around the range of other recent industry marks for standard-sized multicrystalline solar cells.) The company has had successful customer trials with four customers so far, he added."
http://solarenergysavingsexposed.blogspot.com/2013/10/1366-one-step-closer-to-opening-us_17.html
I guess they might also need to use silver on the back as well, as this construction technique discusses:
Deletehttp://pveducation.org/pvcdrom/manufacturing/screen-printed
CP- I don't get this???
DeleteThis is to make the silicon substrate for solar cells. Instead of growing a log shaped ingot as it's always been done, this company has developed a way to lift a silicon layer off the top of a molten silicon surface. MUCH CHEAPER silicon = MUCH cheaper solar cell cost!
DeleteFor example, Solyndra was depositing a thin film silicon onto a glass substrate (cylindrically shaped for ability to collect light at multiple angles) which gave competitive results when ingot-grown silicon prices were high but lost their ass when ingot-grown wafer prices cratered. This means if this process works (seems plausible) then the thin film silicon process is dead meat and price/watt of the new lifted substrate lowers the cost to manufacturer solar grade silicon tremendously.
DeleteFSLR uses a silicon on glass deposition process (I think), so when/if this comes to production in volume, FSLR's process won't compete either. MEMC won't be selling competitive solar silicon either.
That is, molten silicon(high purity sand) direct to wafer, instead of growing an log shaped ingot and slicing it up many thousand times to make wafers using diamond saws (and maybe now sliced using lasers, I'm not sure).
DeleteChina rocketing higher
ReplyDeleteCool, sure beats the alternative of continued doom and gloom into eternity.
DeleteBALT - Out @ $6.09, for a reload on weakness
ReplyDeleteLong small chunk of UGAZ at $25.85 for a day trade.
ReplyDeleteSold at $25.8
DeleteCCJ - LOL, the Japanese pro-nuclear news was priced in already.
ReplyDeleteTRR - Interesting chart.
ReplyDeleteImmigration rules were relaxed. Does this relieve unemployment or wage disinflation? I already know Corporate America wants cheaper labor, our government agrees?.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - F'in nuts, the way this thing moves.
ReplyDeleteTWTR - When do we buy this one?
ReplyDeleteTHD/IDX - Ugghhh
ReplyDeleteBALT - Stink bid @ $5.78
ReplyDeleteMan, I can't find anything interesting today. Probably best to just do nothing.
ReplyDeleteYou're great at that! :) I'm trying to check out NRG, one of the investors and receiving contracts from the likes of Sir Richard Branson to replace diesel gen sets with solar.
DeleteBirinyi calling for S&P 1900 next quarter which would be +6%
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-10/birinyi-sees-s-p-500-at-1-900-by-july-as-shorts-miss-drop.html
Is he really saying there are no bets on further downside, the bears have thrown in the towel? Wow, sounds like everyone's on one side of the boat....
DeleteIn reading some of the posts by Ryan Detrick it certainly seems like a lot of people were betting on more downside last week. http://eyevest.com/ tracks commentary from "experts" on CNBC and they have been pretty bearish/cautious for the past week as well.
DeleteWindows Ultimate Booster" will speed your computer and fix the buggy operating system it came with" (the one that allows spyware) - Should I click YES and enter my ATM card number?
ReplyDeleteENPH - I want in but, this looks like a bear flag. Yep, just the same as BALT a few days before it hit $6.40 last week
ReplyDeleteANGI - Fly really seems to think this one is gonna fly. What do you guys think?
ReplyDeleteIt's a CUP formation here forming a handle? A brief handle likely indicates level of interest.
DeleteI think ANGI is going to be worth nothing within 3 years. Can it rally from here? Maybe, but YELP will eat them for lunch.
DeleteOkay thanks, that's precisely what I needed to know.
DeleteI agree with Mark - seems to be just some minor fidgeting going on in the market today and nothing too exciting.
ReplyDeleteI haven't done any significant research on this but I've noticed that when a chart shows a significant (and consistent) increase in volume on the weekly chart after a bottoming period with low volume, there is typically a very big move that follows it within 9 months. I've noticed this on the solar stocks and a bunch of other momentum/high fliers lately including stocks like HIMX and PATK.
ReplyDeletethis is another thing that I find very promising for BALT. I would have to imagine part of it is a sign that institutions are quietly accumulating the stock.
DeleteIs that a similar phenomenon as CPST/EXTR?
DeleteRFIL looks like its putting in a bottoming pattern right around prior highs before the euphoric run. Wouldn't surprise me to see it make another run
ReplyDeleteFMAR - Down a mere 70%
ReplyDeleteBidding UGAZ at $22.9
ReplyDeleteUGAZ only down 45% in 3 days.
DeleteI'm thinking, this recent run illustrates a lack of storage capacity still exists for natty.
DeleteCondo listings in DC metro area are up 28%, home listings also up.
ReplyDeleteS - Reports in the morning
ReplyDeleteDGAZ - Bingo, I can already smell spring flowers.
ReplyDeleteShort term bottom probably in for nat gas. I was looking for a bounce off the $4.53 prior high. Got down to $4.56.
DeleteYep, winter seems to be resuming so another surge isn't out of the question and this may just be the pause that refreshes.
DeleteI expect coal should get more respect, confirming these circumstances. That's how the market works, right, no positive signals whatsoever then BANG, gap up.
ADM - See the volume at recent lows and how it drops off as price rises a bit. To me, this indicates strong interest b/c there are no sellers when price lifts.
ReplyDeleteNRG - These guys seem actively involved in the solar energy space:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/heatherclancy/2013/11/11/need-solar-in-a-hurry-nrg-energy-launches-preconfigured-canopy/
VNDA - Yeah, baby...
ReplyDeleteSGG - Still dropping, mountains of subsidized sugar makes great feedstock for PEIX. The hell with putting real sweeteners in soda drinks, load them with synthesized corn sugar and make large bottles illegal b/c there aren't enough small plastic cups fowling the fragile aquatic life in NY harbor.
ReplyDeleteYingling Ice cream, licensed.
ReplyDeleteCCJ - Wow, wonder what this ton of volume means?/?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Back in @ $5.95, seems to have bottomed, maybe.
ReplyDeletejynx!
DeleteLOL, at least the order filled $0.02 less than my bid........ As if that makes me feel any better.
DeleteWell, now I'm up an MCD hamburger, LOL, maybe even with cheese by close! :)
DeleteChild caught in cord of window blinds found strangled, died.
ReplyDelete5 feet of snow in Tahoe, eh?
ReplyDeleteBAH - Neutral -> Buy BACML I'm guessing this must be a top....
BALT - Well, that trade actually filled @ $5.93 but woops, guess I didn't wait quite long enough.
"Hilary is an enabler and a denier" (of adultery)
ReplyDeleteRand sure knows how to sweet talk the women. I predict they find themselves on the wrong side of history.....again.
DeleteBALT- Come on girl.....
ReplyDeleteCP is single handedly smothering and lifting BALT
DeleteI want to use this opportunity to thank Dr Asika Kumar for helping me to trade BALT.I have been trading BALT for the past 2 years now and the only big money i have ever won was 1000$.Ever since then i have not been able to win again and i was so upset and i need help to trade BALT so i decided to go online and search for help,there i saw so many good talk about this man called Dr Asika kumar of how he have cast spell for people to trade.I contact him also and tell him i want to trade BALT he cast a spell for me which i use and i get my trades and i won $50million.I am so greatful to this man just incase you also need him to help you win,you can contact him through his email: ultimatespelltemple1@gmail.com
DeleteI'm not sure why, but drones keep circling the house here.......
ReplyDeleteI feel like I just spent the entire night cock fighting, my spurs are sore as heck man....
ReplyDeleteTTM - Tata Motors Ltd.: JLR astounds, India business surprises (BACML)
ReplyDelete"India business: Losses mount, but may have peaked
DeleteIndia business losses widened with EBITDA margin at minus 4.3%. Sales declined
27% at Rs 77.7bn, largely in line implying impact of negative leverage and
competition being much higher than anticipated. We continue to retain our negative
stance on demand across key operating segments, but expect margins to recover
on cost-cutting initiatives and some traction from upcoming launches.
Balance sheet manageable
JLR’s strong operating cash flows (GBP ~950mn in Q3) and cash/undrawn facilities
(GBP 1.3bn) have not only eased concerns over funding constraints for capex next
fiscal (GBP3.5-3.7bn), but also increases the possibility of continued dividend
payouts to support parent operations. We expect net gearing to remain comfortable
at 0.2x (India business 1.2x)."
FMD earnings were actually pretty solid and the fact that they are kind of re-entering the securitization market through reselling their loans makes this a little more interesting than just a month ago.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is the fat cat (and boy is he fat!) at the top deems it shareholder friendly to pay everyone exorbitant fees for their "valuable" analytical work and to fly around in a private jet on the company dime. The sooner someone with some claws digs into the chest of that company and rips out the extra heart, the better. This is one situation where activism could do some good.
DeleteSeems like it's always more lucrative to beg forgiveness for your sins than ask permission.
DeleteMan, it's dead out there. I even tried to bait someone on the MITK feed and no one bit.
ReplyDeleteI went Curling this afternoon - didn't miss anything.
DeleteEarnings have been good this quarter, so no fireworks there - maybe the traders are keying in on Yellen tomorrow?
Do you actually play it the way we see on TV or some simpler version?
DeleteProbably those guys really don't want to hear your perverted crap! :)
DeleteCurling is a term for drinking bear, isn't it? Kidding! Definitely the market is awaiting Yellen tomorrow and I get the impression isn't expecting she'll be particularly accommodating, either.
DeleteDAC - Looks like H&S, no?
ReplyDeleteStill unable to 'new post.'
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to EEM today? Last time I checked (early this am), Shanghai was +2%.
ReplyDeleteOh gosh, just another SOSDD in paradise! Wow, gold sure is taking off........
DeleteSo you guys don't think German's decision Friday to reject Draghi's LTRO plan as contrary to EU law might be weighing on the market?
ReplyDeleteShanghai down 1% vs 2%+ for S&P. Outperforming.
ReplyDeleteDude, Shanghai is up tonight so far. Looks like 1950 was the bottom, not the 1850 called last June.
DeleteINTC - This one's up 20% from the $20 level
ReplyDeleteI give up. Tried again to stir the pot this time with NSPH and the dude 'saw my point'. WTF is going on?
ReplyDeleteFYI- Tablets are over.
ReplyDeleteI could have told you that the first time I tried to go to a website with flash on it 3 years ago.
DeleteI like looking back at articles around the time an industry turns. Check this one out:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/581051-first-solar-in-danger-of-50-percent-drop-now
Scary stuff huh? How about this to get you out of the stock right before it catapults higher:
Delete"In recent years, Chinese solar companies have flooded the PV market with supply. Their foray into the industry has been so bold, in fact, that some have accused China of selling PV cells and modules at below cost, in order to win market share and drive competitors out of business. Some of First Solar's largest competitors in the last decade, including the now-bankrupt and Nasdaq-delisted companies Evergreen Solar (OTC:ESLRQ) and Energy Conversion Devices (ENERQ.PK), have fallen victim to these price wars and oversupply, whereas their Chinese counterparts, like Yingli (YGE) and Trina Solar (TSL), have emerged as worldwide leaders. As a result of China's concerted effort, the cost of solar modules fell 50% in 2011 alone. In reaction to China's tactics, in March of 2012 the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed tariffs on Chinese-made solar cells and panels. However, with the tariffs only ranging from 3 percent to 5 percent, they won't have any real impact on the ability of U.S. solar companies to compete globally. If the U.S. solar industry is to rebound, much of its rebound will depend on how the government reacts to aggressive pricing tactics, like those used by the Chinese in the last two years."
Mark,
ReplyDeletewe curl pretty much the same as on TV although those guys are, of course, much better. I play on 3 teams and my one skip was the Illinois State Champion and she'll call those difficult shots you see on TV, but the other guys are more straight-forward.
Something fun to do in the winter, especially a winter like this one when we've had so many below 0 Fahrenheit days and it is tough to get outside. Finishes up at the end of March, just in time for golf season.
Pretty popular up here - 10 curling rinks for our region of about 600,000 people.
DeleteNew Post Pappy
ReplyDeleteRBY - Quite a run.
ReplyDelete