I moved 33% of my portfolio into ATACX at the close.
ATACX closed down -1% @ 27.62 (as expected). The fund is currently
positioned in the long bond, which closed down -1.06% (and one reason I decided
to open the position today).
I have two reasons for shifting into an actively managed
fund. The daily attention required to manage a 'tactical' account is taking its
toll, and my returns haven't been that great recently. The guys managing this
fund (Ed Dempsey, Michael Gayed, and Charlie Bilello) are the 'real thing,' IMO. They demonstrate great 'market rhythm,' along
with 24-7 passion for the game. If the fund performs the way I think it will,
I'll up my percentage allocation.
I should add that ATACX views Emerging Markets as the next 'pitch.' When the sector finally takes off, it won't allow anyone an easy on-board. You need a team to handle the kinds of preparations and (often split-second) decisions required for tactical trading. The fund sports a four-figure % turnover rate, and they've been great at U-turns when necessary. I'll keep you updated!
ReplyDeleteWow! I always wonder with products like that if the fees reasonable with that level of trading? Be interesting to see how it does.
ReplyDeleteTo a certain degree, I believe fees are 'commensurate with gains.' It's a young fund, and they work hard. Personally, I'm willing to bet on these guys (you can find their articles, tweets, and videos all over cypberspace). It beats betting on a lazy-ass fund manager steering a fund that mimics the broad indexes with his eyes closed.
DeleteIf you can pick smart guys and get in early, that is almost always when you do the best. The hard part is figuring out who the smart guys are without them having a good track record. But many funds I have looked at have started out great, then become average as their assets increase and their great ideas start dwindling.
DeleteATACX - I've always wondered how these are priced, if by the assets or by the price assigned to the shares by the market. Even if the fund does well, then how does this translate to share price?
ReplyDeleteSee page 33.
Deletehttp://www.atacfund.com/media/pdfs/SAI.pdf
Yes, the market sets the price:
Delete"Portfolio securities primarily traded on the NASDAQ Stock Market (“NASDAQ”) shall be valued using the NASDAQ Official Closing Price (“NOCP”) which may not necessarily represent the last sale price. If the NOCP is not available, such securities shall be valued at the last sale price on the day of valuation, or if there has been no sale on such day, at the mean between the bid and asked prices. OTC securities that are not traded on NASDAQ shall be valued at the most recent trade price."
Since the currently reported NAV is $27.90, there's a $0.28 (1%) arb to that NAV at the moment. And it appears they invest/hedge or whatever, based solely on their internal determinations:
Delete"The Fund seeks to achieve absolute positive return over time. The Fund invests the Fund's assets primarily in shares of exchange-traded funds that track various indices. These indices may track the performance of the equity, fixed income and/or commodities markets."
Mark, I was up 0.7% in Cdn dollars in Jan. I mainly benchmark my returns against the average of the TSX and the S&P500 in C$. The TSX was up 0.5% in Jan. and the S&P was actually up 1.3% in C$, so I underperformed the average of 0.9%
ReplyDeleteIn US$, my return was -4.1%, because of the huge currency swings in the month.
Generally measuring in C$ has hurt my returns by 2% a year as the C$ has appreciated quite a bit since 2000, but it helped last year and this year so far. I would suspect the C$ should be fairly steady around $0.90 where it is now for the rest of the year, but a lot of things could happen.
But, I will tell you, it sure feels better to see those +'s on your spreadsheet
TOF, re you comments on EEM, the same thing basically applies to the Canadian market (in US$). EWC at same levels as in early 2010 and early 2007. Actually, same for Australia (EWA).
ReplyDeleteI think it just shows how tightly correlated commodity countries are to growth in emerging markets.
We make a zillion decisions with respect to our portfolio over a lifetime. All that matters is that we keep trying. ATACX is another decision. I'll see how it plays out. There are no right or wrong choices as long as we remain committed to achieving financial security/independence for ourselves and our families as best we can.
ReplyDeletePrice should follow NAV, I think, so if these guys know what they're doing then theoretically it should climb continuously. At least that's how I read it, assuming the market doesn't sniff out trouble or encircle it with perverted monkey business.
DeleteChina - Since the iron ore stocks were replenished in Dec/Jan, would it make any sense to think they'll be ordering shiploads of coking coal in order to process the ore?
ReplyDeletePeeing on the wrong hydrant, barking up the wrong tree?
Turkish scrap steel orders are down abruptly. Does this mean scrap processors like NUE might dine on the complementary surplus?
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303743604579355113198507676?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303743604579355113198507676.html
What's not to like? Well, it's A1 Steak Sauce on BACML's list and I think that Timna Tamner dude is mad at the world b/c the kids made fun of his name.
DeleteNUE - John J. Ferriola - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
"Well, we agree very strongly with the statement that the gas, the shale gas revolution will, in fact, result in a manufacturing renaissance in the United States. And I don't have the data at my fingertips, but there is quite a bit of data out there supporting that position. The amount of investment in manufacturing over the last 2 to 3 years is measured in the billions of new projects. We see it all the time as we visit with our customers and we get in the form of a customer feedback. We -- there's Caterpillar, for one, is moving back into the States, moving some production back into the States. Several of the large equipment manufacturers are moving production facilities back into the States. So we think it is very real. We think it's very significant. And we are investing in our company to be ready for that renaissance when it occurs. That's what the $8 billion of investments we've made over the last couple of years is all about. We believe it's coming. We believe we'll be ready for it and we believe we will be best positioned to take advantage of it."
2nd- Can I open and close this MF at no cost over a 24hr. period?
ReplyDeleteWow, $110M. That's small enough to move around 'quickly".
DeleteNo. 2% early redemption penalty (within 90 days). I suggest you follow the fund and its managers for a period of time to become comfortable with their philosophy.
DeleteThx. I'm reading now. Do they have a twitter feed?
DeleteMKSI This one hasn't broken down, sensors and instruments for semiconductor equipment, AMAT is a customer, among many.
ReplyDeleteNEE - 41,000 MW a churning urn of burning funk
SE - Breakout, fellas!
SUI - Possibly
CXO - Pretty strong volume, I still like this one, some insider sales though
ReplyDeleteYEN is continuing to lift, has Abe has lost his ability to commit Yen harikari?
NANO - Good 'ol NANO, NANO You guys don't like my picks.........
ReplyDeleteAll right. Your making me look.
DeleteFMAR - See the cup. I have no way of evaluating this one, it's a financial corporation, not a company that makes real products.
ReplyDeleteWe hooked the EM's on $US debt, now their currencies are weakened they're feeling the squeeze to repay in $US, their $US denominated debt:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bis.org/publ/work441.pdf
So, does this explain why maybe BSBR has been disposing of their cash, so debt owners will have limited recourse?
DeleteVRNG - Won a GOOG royalty settlement?!?!?!?
ReplyDeleteAdded a little ACI pre market at $4.17/9.
ReplyDeleteCool site on sentiment:
ReplyDeletehttp://eyevest.com/
Baltic Dry Index climbs to 1,086 , up 2
ReplyDeleteCP,
ReplyDeleteBSBR gave back the big dividend, but then borrowed the same amount. It was really about reducing the excess capital in the business and getting better ROE. It was the same as when the big US companies borrow to pay dividends.
Assuming they can maintain the same dividend and profit levels, the stock should move back up to the previous levels over time as it is usually valued on a P/E and Yield basis (P/B basis in distressed times), so from a shareholder perspective, you had your cost basis reduced, so you should make higher return.
I hope they borrowed in a currency that crashes!
DeleteNANO - +12%
ReplyDeleteAdded ACI $4.12
ReplyDeleteDemark calling for the bottom in SHanghai - had a good call in June and seems reasonably respected, so maybe this is it:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/demark-sees-shanghai-index-bottom-within-days-after-rout.html
he also is calling for a 40% drop in us equities.
DeleteI can see how maybe US equities could fall as/if capital rushes into EM's? I think it would just be temporary, though, like maybe a couple of years.
DeleteINT - This baby is up, are ships lined up for fueling this morning?
ReplyDeleteDDD - Down 25%
ReplyDeleteNice island reversal, but this company had to be way over valued considering the ridiculous level of hype that surrounded it. Was Cramer pumping it?
DeleteANGI - Upgrade Buy
ReplyDeleteWAG - Big doggy!
ZNGA - Downgrade "Underperform" (Ha, maybe a bottom?
BSBR - The way I see it, is it's just a matter of waiting for a bottom. Hopefully there's not something nefarious going on.
WAG - Does this count as up on good news?
DeleteBALT - Why won't this f'ing thing crash!?!?!?
ReplyDeleteNUE - Sure looks like this one wants to move up, did you guys read the cc transcript? These guys are uber-confident.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - I've got a target of around $180, not sure if it can get there, that seems awfully low. It looks like it wants to stop here, the increasing volume around $230 wasn't indicative of joy and exuberance, more like a warning.
ReplyDeleteBALT - This thing looks just like a bear flag formation, I'm sorry but this is what I see.
ReplyDeleteturn your frown upside down!
DeleteLOL, I'll be smiling if they knock it down and out, so I can load the boat!
DeleteAGCO - Still coming to me, they said in the cc they wont drop their pants to buy business like their competitors are known to do. Their primary factory is located in Germany.
ReplyDeletePCP - Got smoked right back to the October gap up, now the gap is closed. This gap occurred with the news they completed an upgrade to their factory and were back in operation, if I recall.
ReplyDeleteIf only Yellen would allow her beard to grow out a little...
ReplyDeleteUgh...
ReplyDeleteGMO needs to be bought this morning.... maybe.
Deleteb/c it always seems to pop up like that weasel at the arcade, one day it may not.
DeleteTR - Tootsie rolled over big time this year.
ReplyDeleteEXTR - Ha, ha, ha... Just as I thought, there's nothing special about a high-density router switch.
ReplyDeleteAdded a little more ACI at $3.98. Legging in.
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Come on baby, please don't bounce here, hit my $48 GTC instead!
ReplyDeleteBALT - Needs to hang onto $5.62, IMO
ReplyDeleteMKSI - No f'in way this will fall out of the channel, period.
ReplyDeleteBAS - That 5 day chart is lunacy.
ReplyDeleteGnarly moves today
ReplyDeleteI'm totally biased but I get the sense that a big move is coming in the coals.
ReplyDeleteLXK - Wonder if these dudes will win the 2017 PC Mag "3D printer of the year" Editor's choice?
ReplyDeleteSome Motley Fool guy has a writeup on the nursing home company I mentioned, Extendicare (EXE.TO). Basically, he has the idea correct:
ReplyDelete"The valuation here is very compelling. In fact, it's the clearest value that I've seen since I've been running my Special Situations portfolio. You're getting a high dividend yield while you wait for the company to unlock value with the spinoff or sale of its American unit. But let me put it in other terms: You are getting a business for free or nearly free. My estimates suggest you're paying from 0%-13% of the real value of the American unit. And that could lead to gains of least 100% and maybe even 200%."
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2014/01/27/im-buying-more-of-this-free-stock/?source=edddlftxt0860001
Quite a wall of worry for the market: Puerto Rico, Turkey, Argentina, China, Japan. Yikes
ReplyDeleteOh I forgot Taper too!
DeleteDirty dirty coal...blast off in 3...2...1...
ReplyDeleteThis (on surface) appears to be a bit of a no brainer. Charts + hugely negative sentiment + huge catalyst (natty) + ridiculously cheap valuation are all converging at the same exact time.
DeleteHow about volume, if the up days have volume and down days lack volume, is that indicative of intent?
DeleteI once knew a guy who worked for Sun Microsystems in the computer enclosure development department and learned from him that Sun went to great pains designing their computer enclosures using powdered metals combined in the resins used to make molded plastic parts. This was done for the purpose of EMF (electromotive force) shielding.
ReplyDeleteI kinda blew him off, saying that it seems like to me a metallic film for EMF shielding could simply be sputtered or plasma-spray coated onto the surfaces of the cabinet parts instead.
This article reminds me of that guy, and our conversation:
http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2013/04/a-fascinating-liquidmetal-patent-from-apple-surfaces-in-europe.html
NM rising out of nowhere.
ReplyDeleteSo is INT, as if ships are entering global harbors for refueling. Wish I had a real time satellite view.
DeleteWilbur Ross filed to raise more money for shipping last night - maybe related?
Deletehttp://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/04/diamondsshipping-ipo-idUKL3N0L943720140204
Couldn't be that. NM didn't move till 1:00. Not sure why - subsidiaries NNA and NMM having nothing type days.
Delete1811 - Maybe we're gonna back kiss the 50/20 day MA cross? That would set up for a nice ih&s, wouldn't it? Would a target off that neckline would be a new high???
ReplyDeleteJust sayin' it almost looks like a possibility....
When you look at these employment numbers and stats, I really do wonder how much is weather related. Out weather is similar to Detroit and Chicago and they are both having brtual winters with snow way above normal and I now how hard it is to get stuff done around here, so I'm sure it is the same there. My daughter works at a small restaurant and they had half the customers they'd expect last night and they've put off hiring an additional server.
ReplyDeleteAnecdotal I know, but it really is the worst winter we've had in at least 20 years.
Still keeping my eye on CCJ and LUN.TO for purchases in the metals area. They've both fallen back a bit but are still much closer to highs than lows. LUN.TO seems to be holding in particularly well, but I think I'm still better to wait in the current market than chase.
ReplyDeleteOff topic, but Consumer Reports out with brand preference survey. Toyota Honda Ford at the top of the list:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.consumerreports.org/cro/2014/02/2014-car-brand-perception-survey/index.htm
Yeah, I've liked Honda's vehicles for a very long time too. When you're in Japan and say that though, they give you funny looks, or if you press them a little they'll respond that Honda is one of the least favorite of Japanese.
DeleteANGI Buy -> Neutral I got that backwards, earlier.
ReplyDeleteBrent - I really do think we will look back and see just how badly the economy was affected by the weather. When I drove cross country last month it was so brutally cold that my car was giving me problems and I was driving the southern route. It was around 0 in much of the deep south. I think people's heating bills zapped discretionary $$ and people are just generally less willing to do stuff outdoors in the bitter cold. It may not be much but the market needed a reason to sell off and when combined with Fed taper fears and worries about emerging markets, it was a nice little cocktail.
ReplyDeleteBrent - NM and BALT are both rallying. Not sure why but they have held in fairly well so far. Probably in anticipation of a return from Chinese New Year and hopes that the index will rally. It has been a brutal 6 weeks for the index
ReplyDeleteCould be. The CEO from NM was pretty optimistic on her call about rates and opportunities into 2014. I'm sure she has better insight than most with her broad view of the market (assuming you can trust her and she is not just CEO-speaking).
DeleteTGIBW!!!!! :)
ReplyDeleteWhat we need right about now is a German style lecture for the financially stressed EMs about the need for rebalancing and austerity in order to correct any imbalances.
ReplyDeleteBrent- look out your window. Anyone installing solar panels?
ReplyDeleteNot today, but we subsidize our farmers paying them $0.80 a kilowatt and then sell it to consumers for $0.07. Not generating a whole lot of electricity now though!
DeleteBB - How do you stay warm up there, I figure a decent sized home should consume around 50,000 btu/hr under the current conditions, a few solar panels on the roof won't do that on any day of the year.
DeleteNot many people have individual solar - nat gas is by far the most common heating source. It's pretty reasonable. I pay $114 ($100 US) per month for heat and 2 water heaters for a 3300 sq foot home.
DeleteMy "all-electric home" bill runs easily twice that during winter months when I'm not burning wood. I could probably make do with an extensive solar panel installation if I lived in Southern California, Az, or Fla, places where many homes built back before the 70's didn't have heating systems installed. Water pipes freeze at 32F....
DeleteThe risk is most acute for six European banks, "BBVA, ERSTE BANK, HSBC, SANTANDER, STANDARD CHARTERED and UNICREDIT":
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/04/us-europe-banks-emergingmarkets-idUSBREA130H320140204
Okay, so why is shipping not collapsing? How about in anticipation of financial assistance for EM's?
ReplyDeletePeople see the demand / supply fundamentals shifting. If you wait until they are completely obvious, most of the gains will be gone. You have to get ahead and make an educated guess and take your chances.
DeleteCP- They're all full of solar panels.
DeleteBalt is a 10 bagger, so a dollar or two won't make a huge difference. Looking over these bulk ships I do see a small solar panel looking thing on the helm, perhaps 100~200 Watts. but I'm pretty sure this boat needs near 7,000hp to push it along in a rough sea.
DeleteThis ship will need 522,000 ft^2 of solar panels for daytime navigation. Dividing this by 100, A 70hp car would only need 5,220 ft^2 of solar panels.
If you are intested, this is what TD is calling for this year:
ReplyDeleteAs we stated in our year ahead forecast, historical experience suggests that we
should expect a three- to six-month consolidation in equity markets as earnings
catch up to the expectations implied by higher multiples. With the S&P 500 Index
now down by over 5% from the mid-January peak, it is worth reviewing the
historical experience.
We consider the 2013–2014 period to be analogous to 2009–2010 and 2003–2004.
In each case, U.S. and global growth shifted from deceleration to re-acceleration
around the mid-point of the first year (2003, 2009, and 2013). In each case, the
stock market was very strong in the first year, led more by multiple expansion than
earnings growth. Bears were converted to bulls over the course of each of these
years. By the end of 2003, 2009, and 2013, most investors had become confident
that growth truly was picking up. This widespread optimism is one of the key
drivers for the consolidations that occurred in 2004 and 2010, and for what may
well have begun in 2014. With most investors converted to the bullish camp, there
is a shortage of new buyers and plenty to worry about as earnings information
gradually is released.
The peak-to-trough decline in these consolidations is limited by the fact that
earnings and economic growth do indeed typically pick up. The 2004 market had a
peak-to-trough correction of 8.1%, while the 2010 correction was 16%,
exacerbated by problems in Greece. We expect the 2014 correction to be less than
10% before the bull market resumes.
It is worth noting that in both 2004 and 2010, emerging markets sold off
significantly more than the S&P 500, but went on to outperform the S&P 500 for
the year overall.
History suggests that these corrections are predictable and that they present a
buying opportunity in a bull market associated with a global economy which
continues to grow.
We continue to believe that global policy stimulus has triggered a re-acceleration
of U.S. and global growth which began in 2013 and will continue through 2014.
The prospect of better growth drove U.S. and Canadian equity prices significantly
higher over 2013, with continued gains expected in 2014. We therefore continue to
recommend overweighting stocks and underweighting bonds. We recommend
overweighting cyclical areas (Energy, Materials [ex gold], Technology, Industrials,
and Consumer Discretionary), while underweighting defensive sectors (Utilities,
Telecom, and Consumer Staples). We have Financials, Gold, and Health Care at
market weight.
I have a hard time believing this is 2003.
DeleteThey are suggesting 2014 will be like 2004.
DeleteBut I guess if you look at the charts, you had big up years in 2003 and 2009, followed by consolidatish type years in 2004 and 2010, which would be a reasonable thing to happen.
I'm still thinking we have a pretty good up year personally, but all these things are more interesting and make you think than are tradeable.
AGO - Did you guys notice this one ripping higher? I hate it when it doesn't hit my stink bid first, over and over again.
ReplyDeletePuerto Rico
DeletePlus the 10% dividend increase this morning didn't hurt.
DeleteVALE - South American coal?
ReplyDeleteI like looking at charts like this one only to get a sense for what others might trade like:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.riskreversal.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Screen-Shot-2014-02-05-at-1.35.05-PM-600x359.png
this looks identical to the 7 year chart chart of the baltic dry index. Notice how the rates spiked higher at the end of last year and then collapsed...and how much this looks like the period in the above chart around early 2012? The argument could be made that the index is just retesting prior resistance in 2012/3. Maybe that's why BALT is able to hold in here? who knows. i do know that the upside is really high if the economy doesn't collapse and they can keep supply of ships in line.
Sentiment on emerging markets has soured so much that I'm pretty sure the majority of people aren't expecting spot rates to rise above the December highs. I like this setup from a sentiment standpoint. Its tough to hold through shakeouts but the fact that BALT has a much better balance sheet than pretty much any other shipper, with the youngest fleet of ships (more desirable by customers because they are more eco friendly / fuel charges are lower), and that it is fully levered to spot rates makes this a very good potential upside play
DeleteMeant to post these trades:
ReplyDeleteSold ACI at $4.03
re-entered ACI at $3.92.
Bidding small amount on TWTR at $56.5 for the hell of it.
ReplyDeletewow that was quick.
DeleteSold at $60.4.
DeleteBack in $58.8
DeleteStop $57. I think there's a chance it rallies to the green before tomorrow morning.
DeleteSold at $57.7
DeleteDisney dollars beat Twitter glitter! :)
DeleteGMCR - Remembering when we didn't like this one.
ReplyDeleteshit I've loved that stock for a while now...really ever since I got a Keurig. Was too busy with YRCW and that shit stock FMD
DeleteOh that's right, you did! We peed all over it due to the Keurig apparatus, like we peed all over SCTY, LOL
DeleteCoffee prices are coming off of an extreme bottom below the cost of production. Once it gets to that point it is hard to imagine it goes any lower and several things start to happen. Premium specialty coffees always get a premium but production coffees are traded on the commodity exchanges so growers cut back or go out of business and price/demand reaches an equilibrium and prices start to rise. The SCAA (Specialty Coffee Association of America) was pretty worried and some of the big boys like SBUX and GMCR started going abroad and contracting out further which is driving prices a bit higher. AAMOF, one of the coffees I buy went up .40 a lb in one day. So GMCR and the larger importers like JVA are getting juiced. Full disclosure: I'm a roaster and I have a position on JVA. None of the above changes the fact that Keurig sucks ballz. I don't know why anyone will pay $12 (or more) for a pot and a half of rancid coffee. Convenient? Yes. Good? Hardly. Cost effective? Not on your life.
Deletehttp://dailycoffeenews.com/2014/02/05/coca-cola-buys-10-percent-stake-in-green-mountain-for-keurig-cold-drink-development/
DeleteMaybe we should keep March 9, 2014 in mind. 5 year anniversary from 2009 lows. What's with the 5 year anniversary thing?
ReplyDeleteOctober 9, 2007 was the 5 year anniversary from the Oct 9 2002 lows.
8/25/1987 peak, 8/12/1982 trough - just over 5 years
10/5/1979 short term peak before quick 10% plunge vs 10/3/1974 bottom
man there's a slew of near 5 year cycles:
+ 10/25/1960 to 2/9/1966 - 5 years, 3 months
+ July 1932 to April 1937
Maybe after 5 years, everyone who is ever going to buy into a trend is on board, so there is no-one left to buy?
DeleteWhen I was contemplating leaving Varian, I told my manager (A guy who frequented with the CEO) that I would consider staying if they would share the company's 5yr plan with me. I never received it.
DeleteI was pretty upset with them at the time for laying off our experimental welder, James C. Nystrom, then coming to me a week later, asking if stainless steel can be copper plated.. Several of us went to AMAT, where Jimmy was asked to help solve some development issues for their Chemical Mechanical Polishing tools, which he did. You can find Jimmy's patents via Google.
AGCO - July gap up is closed today. Is that an upside down cup?
ReplyDeleteDE - That's not an other upside down cup either, is it? Insider buying
HAYN - This stainless steel manufacturer seems to be under pressure, insider ownership seems healthy.
TWI - Looks like a 1yr cup with handle
TSM - Unbelievable chart
INTC - These guys really screwed the pooch, didn't they? What a surprise.
QCOM is fabless, right? Is their foundry TSM by any chance?
Singapore is a major shipping hub, this chart has broken down through the bottom of the pendant just as the BB's tightened:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$STI&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p70502519911
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/04/what-the-results-from-navios-maritime-partners-l-2.aspx
ReplyDeleteYep, that's a good article.
DeleteBALT and VALE both, bottomed the same day. Jan 27th
ReplyDeleteNM - Bottomed the 24th, Friday
SWIR - Earnings out, have a look.
ReplyDeleteHaven't had a chance to look but I did see that ORBC was killing it.
DeleteYeah, I know. How's that tractor trailer manufacturer you were following getting along, I forgot the ticker....
DeleteGotta wonder if we don't get one more whoosh down after a rally to the 50 DMA. Given how bearish people have gotten over this pullback I would think that scenario would set a lot of people up for looking for more downside...right at a bottom.
ReplyDeleteYep, there are a lot of stocks that appear to have bottomed. Could be a simultaneous global bottom? I guess if iron ore should drop, then China will require more coking coal as well. A growing modern economy burns more coal.
DeleteI read somewhere, China said they won't need more iron ore for a couple months, they had ~80M Tons going into the holiday.
EWW - Closed better than it's open
ReplyDeleteMWW - Reports in the morning, needs to retake $5.93
OSTK - Showing signs of life?
ReplyDeleteWhatever happens, try to remember it isn’t the fall that kills you—it’s sticking the landing. Choose a stack of hay, a bush, or other object that can break your fall, such as a street lamp. Avoid cranial contact if possible.
ReplyDeleteBDI - 1092 (+6) Word is, India has nibbled during China's absence.
ReplyDeleteDGAZ today?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Back in at $5.95
ReplyDeleteWill add on weakness
DeleteAdded more ACI at $3.81, $3.84.
ReplyDeleteI was just looking at that but don't have the stomach for it right now.
Deleteliterally right!?
DeleteCP - if I was a guessing man I'd say BALT rallies a bit more and then has a shakeout within the next week or so probably back to $5.7ish. In 3 to 6 months it's above $10.
ReplyDeleteBarring a depression that DeMark is calling for, of course.
DeleteA depression, LOL, it hasn't happened yet and we're 5yrs into it.
DeleteBALT - Yeah, will just keep adding.
Investors Flee US Equities:
ReplyDeletehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/BfzHiZkCUAAU-7N.jpg
Up 18 pts, must be heavy selling. Check out volume, higher volume on up days could indicate distribution or an algo trick to make it look like distribution?
DeleteSPH - Yeah, sure, sell this one off just as they're busy as hell supplying demand. I call BS
ReplyDeleteNUE - Not being sold
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Not being sold (although I think tractor sales are likely to be light this Q, which is probably why this one is where it is now and gonna head back up).
BALT - I kinda feel sick, gotta go lie down.
ReplyDeleteSWIR - Noticing December gap up is closed now.
Looks like panic buying this morning in BALT. That typically creates an overhang for a little while. Pisses market makers off.
DeleteSODA - Why would Pepsi need this one, they can't develop and market their own version?
ReplyDeleteCXO - Ya' gotta like that move.
ReplyDeleteWTF, sucks to see this now:
ReplyDeleteAttached is "The No Protection Crash" and THE SUPERSTOCK LETTER "Put Your Shorts On" from 2 weeks ago.
Think about the impact that the latest emerging market "crisis" has on sentiment. Do you think this makes ship owners more or less willing to buy ships, after having gone through one of the roughest periods in the history of their industry due to them shooting themselves in the foot with oversupply. We've already heard stories about supply growth being equal to or less than demand growth. What if Europe is a little stronger and China/India remain strong AND banks and ship owners are less willing to finance ships? Supply shock?
ReplyDeleteThere's so much money sloshing around trying to find yield and shippers still seem to be writing checks that can't be cashed. BDI isn't shooting up, aside from China recently placing a few large orders all simultaneously, last year. Not sure why China does that, they should space things out to gain from economies of scale. So, I guess China must be playing a game, and they know how to play hard ball, so I'm not discounting the possibility of a disappointing setup.
DeleteGreat point. Never hurts to consider the downside for sure.
DeleteENPH/BALT is now a horse race!! Hopefully the weather will move of the headlines for maybe 15 seconds someday.
ReplyDeleteRight, now the focus will swing onto the impact weather had on the employment report. Still waiting for the consumer stress due to high heating costs, that card hasn't been stressed much has it? I never know these things till it's too late to act.
DeleteMITK -.02 Rev. 4.5. That's not bad, but I wonder, has it taken them too long and why hasn't anyone bought them?
ReplyDeleteyou heart jim debello
Delete