Re AGO, Wilbur Ross selling another chunk. Problem for a big guy like him to get out of a largeposition like this, so he has to sell when he can. But we can dump our whole position in a minute. Still, I think he is right that we are ckiser to selling time than buying time.
Maybe there isn't much upside remaining or I guess he doesn't see upside for rates. This seems to be confirming of recent mREIT action? So maybe the market will sell off and capital rushes back into T's? Something's going to happen, it always does.
Wow, almost looks like my positions might all close green..... That NEVER (ever) happens thus something's terribly, horribly wrong! :( Hell, BACML's coal downgrade is looking like another TBTF scam, isn't it? Timna Tanners is proven a bitch.
Damn just checking in. Looks like I was dead wrong about small caps stalling out. Up 0.8% so far today. My stops are in hand. Using around $13.9 for TZA just in case the bulls can't break it above the old highs and keep them there. If they can't that would add some solid overhead supply when combined with that massive spike after the Ukraine drop (+4.3% 1 day move) on 3/3.
Economic Sanctions - "How much hurt are the American public willing to endure to help the people of the Ukraine?" I say "all in" will be the decision. Free coal and gas for them.
I spent a good deal of time listening to the "gurus" on TV and I'm definitely getting the sense that there is zero fear out there amongst traders / investors in the market.
Sentiment wise I think this is a great setup for a fairly substantial decline. Lots of people believe there is just a rotation going on and that the latest moves down in the leading active issues are nothing to be concerned about. Remember what Jesse Livermore said: "If you cannot make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the stock market as a whole."
At 1% below all time highs, people are calling anything that drops a dip that should be bought - mainly because they've been conditioned to do so for the past 5 years. I think people are buying dips and not worried much at all. And I think they will continue to do so if we go down 3 or 5% which could set up the potential for a 10 to 15% dip. We'll see.
(a) For convergence to occur, EM must rise against the backdrop of a US correction. (b) The most violent rallies occur with traders asleep at the wheel. (c) Traders are stubbornly selling/shorting rallies in EM. This is inverse top behavior (at tops, investors stubbornly buy dips, refusing to become bearish).
I pulled the data for the past 27 years for the Russell 2000. Anytime the index is 40% or more above its 200 week moving average, subsequent returns are really weak. Here they are:
There were 85 times where the return was 43%+ above 50 wk MA for Russell 2000. All had negative 3mth, 4mth, and 1 yr returns. There were 5 times in past 2 weeks where R2K was 43%+ above its 50 week MA
The problem, as I see it, is that even at +40-45% above the 50, the 1-2-3 month returns fall within the range of 'normal volatility' (-1% to -4.5%). Not exactly significant declines?
Down here with my wife, but we did bring our clubs.
We are actually in a small town in West Palm Beach, but I think it may be a 1 percenter area, so not representative of the overall economy. House across the road on the ocean is listed for $17 million and had a bigger garage than my whole house.
Re AGO, Wilbur Ross selling another chunk. Problem for a big guy like him to get out of a largeposition like this, so he has to sell when he can. But we can dump our whole position in a minute. Still, I think he is right that we are ckiser to selling time than buying time.
ReplyDeleteWonder what this implies about MBI
DeleteMaybe there isn't much upside remaining or I guess he doesn't see upside for rates. This seems to be confirming of recent mREIT action? So maybe the market will sell off and capital rushes back into T's?
DeleteSomething's going to happen, it always does.
ISR @ 2.56...
ReplyDeleteAdding VALE @ 12.99.
ReplyDeleteEEM needs to outperform here. I don't think it looks back.
ReplyDeleteBeen reading about KFX here. Might be an interesting play.
ReplyDeletewww.youtube.com/watch?v=XfuBREMXxts
ReplyDeleteRegarding today's rally in EM.
Wow, almost looks like my positions might all close green..... That NEVER (ever) happens thus something's terribly, horribly wrong! :(
ReplyDeleteHell, BACML's coal downgrade is looking like another TBTF scam, isn't it? Timna Tanners is proven a bitch.
Damn just checking in. Looks like I was dead wrong about small caps stalling out. Up 0.8% so far today. My stops are in hand. Using around $13.9 for TZA just in case the bulls can't break it above the old highs and keep them there. If they can't that would add some solid overhead supply when combined with that massive spike after the Ukraine drop (+4.3% 1 day move) on 3/3.
ReplyDeleteWe may have to short once the parabolic stage stalls?
DeleteYeah I have my mental stops in place. I do think we're in blowoff top phase for small caps
DeleteBesides, keep in mind March and April never close red so it's a bad idea to short during this time, LOL.
Deleteahhh very good point! And they also NEVER close down 2%.
Deletehttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sv7fGnPASaM/Uyr_fWWBraI/AAAAAAAAOHo/hFqDq9CXU0Y/s1600/spx+3-20+jpeg.JPG
Delete1909 is ih&s target?
DeleteRevise that to 1920?
DeleteEconomic Sanctions - "How much hurt are the American public willing to endure to help the people of the Ukraine?"
ReplyDeleteI say "all in" will be the decision. Free coal and gas for them.
EPAM - Are we prepared for this?
ReplyDeleteIndia - How about instead of sanitary toilets, a tighter focus reveals sanitary napkins instead?
ReplyDeleteNo, no, no! Toilets. Not napkins.
Deletehttp://mebfaber.com/2014/03/06/cape-valuation-bollinger-bands/
ReplyDeleteI'm still trying to find the updated chart of this one BB sent:
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-cheapest-stock-markets-in-the-world-2013-3
They've obviously changed quite a bit since a year ago. Anyone have an updated version of this?
That guy has a lot of articles:
Deletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/author/sam-ro
NOR - Timna Tanners low-balled this one back last year as well. And, BACML owns a great majority of their debt.
ReplyDeleteWhat was the name of that small chemical company illini was into? I think they were about to report.
ReplyDeletespy - 186.66 remains the line in the sand.
ReplyDeletePAL - Gap up on some news.
ReplyDeleteBRCM - Huge surprise to me.
ReplyDelete30 minutes remaining to go, go to the go-go!!!!! (insert body English here)
ReplyDeleteRussia going to invade this weekend?
ReplyDeleteRight now, I would place that in the #investorscouldn'tcareless category.
DeleteTroops lined up on the border isn't cause for concern?
DeleteOnly for those who reside near the border.
DeleteCould lead to bursting of London Property bubble?
DeleteListened to the Fast Money Halftime show. Pretty sure I heard the comment "Goldilocks" in reference to economy / markets.
ReplyDeleteCIE - Making a move?
ReplyDeletePEIX - Seems bull flag fruited.
ReplyDeleteThey pumped it on Fast Money on CNBC. At $17.50. When did we have it? $3.50? Effin A.
DeleteBank screen checklist:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.timmelvin.com/brar-bank-checklist/
I spent a good deal of time listening to the "gurus" on TV and I'm definitely getting the sense that there is zero fear out there amongst traders / investors in the market.
ReplyDeleteSentiment wise I think this is a great setup for a fairly substantial decline. Lots of people believe there is just a rotation going on and that the latest moves down in the leading active issues are nothing to be concerned about. Remember what Jesse Livermore said:
"If you cannot make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the stock market as a whole."
At 1% below all time highs, people are calling anything that drops a dip that should be bought - mainly because they've been conditioned to do so for the past 5 years. I think people are buying dips and not worried much at all. And I think they will continue to do so if we go down 3 or 5% which could set up the potential for a 10 to 15% dip. We'll see.
The Russell 2000, a basket of 2000 companies, is up 96% from the October 2011 lows. That's on top of a 75% move from March 2009 to October 2011 lows.
DeleteIts up 56% since the Nov 2012 lows.
Think about that for a second.
My best guess is we see the Russell at 1,010 within 2 months.
It's hard not to think that.
Delete(a) For convergence to occur, EM must rise against the backdrop of a US correction.
ReplyDelete(b) The most violent rallies occur with traders asleep at the wheel.
(c) Traders are stubbornly selling/shorting rallies in EM. This is inverse top behavior (at tops, investors stubbornly buy dips, refusing to become bearish).
Where's the bubble? How about London property?
ReplyDeleteGEVO - That's the one illini's holding. The CEO is a bright guy.
ReplyDeleteDown in Fort Lauderdale Florida Lauderdale this week for vacation. you wouldn't think there is anything wrong with you calling me down here.
ReplyDeletein my experience, it takes a while from when people stop expecting pullbacks to happen, before they actually start happening again.
Last call BB. Go to bed. :)
DeleteREFR coming back to the $5 area.
ReplyDeleteDon't give BB any.
DeleteI'll take some!
DeleteI pulled the data for the past 27 years for the Russell 2000. Anytime the index is 40% or more above its 200 week moving average, subsequent returns are really weak. Here they are:
ReplyDelete-1.8% 1-month
-3.64% 2-month
-5.4% 3-month
-6.7% 4-month
-8.9% 6-month
-9.9% 12-month.
http://www.russell.com/indexes/americas/indexes/etfs-derivatives.page?
ReplyDeleteTWM for us older guys.
I have the RUS 2000, 9.34% above 200dma.
Some may find this interesting.
Deletehttp://www.russell.com/documents/indexes/research/russell-2000-small-cap-perspectives.pdf
These guys have 15.78% of their port in BSBR.
ReplyDeletehttp://whalewisdom.com/filer/genesis-fund-managers-llp
Ok, that was Sam Adams post, combined with Google Talk. Whoops! Haha.
ReplyDeleteGolf trip?
DeleteChart on Returns of Russell 2000 ($IWM) based on amount above / below its 50 week moving average:
ReplyDeletehttp://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_21296791.jpg?1395524216
There were 85 times where the return was 43%+ above 50 wk MA for Russell 2000. All had negative 3mth, 4mth, and 1 yr returns. There were 5 times in past 2 weeks where R2K was 43%+ above its 50 week MA
Deletecrazy stats.
DeleteThe problem, as I see it, is that even at +40-45% above the 50, the 1-2-3 month returns fall within the range of 'normal volatility' (-1% to -4.5%). Not exactly significant declines?
DeleteWe are already more than 1 month past when the 40%+'readings started.
DeleteWhat struck me the most was the size of the returns going long when it was under than going short when it was over.
DeleteYeah nuts man
DeleteDown here with my wife, but we did bring our clubs.
ReplyDeleteWe are actually in a small town in West Palm Beach, but I think it may be a 1 percenter area, so not representative of the overall economy. House across the road on the ocean is listed for $17 million and had a bigger garage than my whole house.
The garage has it's own AC unit!!!!!?????
Delete