Janet Yellen's second turn at bat will be tomorrow afternoon (Eastern time). With May around the corner, there is at least the possibility we'll see the kind of volatility that's been lacking in the markets since January '13. Of course, the markets thrive on maximum frustration, so it may arrive with a long fuse.
'They call it stormy Monday, but Tuesday's just as bad. Wednesday's worse...'
Four versions of the T-Bone Walker standard that could just as easily have been penned by a typical Wall Street trader.
(a) T-Bone. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5lokLq6fY4
(b) The Allman Brothers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gDhR1R3S0s
(c) The Allman Brothers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUpapMcYtGU A different 1971 live performance.
(d) The late Eva Cassidy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHWeK8Vheak
Reopened a position in HDGE near the close.
The Clippers??? What the hell is the matter with you guys! ...you can get back to me tomorrow when you wake up 2nd.
ReplyDeleteIt would have been a winning bet, bro.
DeleteSilver banes Sterling..there's a great line in there somewhere. I'm just not quick enough to find it.
ReplyDeleteIsn't that precious!
DeleteAGCO - This one reported too, just mentioning this to keep our little corner of the world updated.
ReplyDeleteGo Wizards!
ReplyDeleteNice jump in IT consulting firm GIB that I talked about before. these are the guys who programmed the Obamacare website and then their stock got beaten down unfairly for the failure of this. Stock now up around 15% in the last couple of weeks, so wouldn't buy now, but was a good opportunity to buy a good stock being beaten down too far on short term news - probably a pretty good long term hold now given their growth record.
ReplyDeleteNice call man, I recall you mentioned it but I don't think I looked at the chart for whatever reason, probably was stressing over something else.
DeleteNLY - Too funny..
ReplyDeleteShitter closed @ 38.10...
ReplyDeleteCREE - This one keeps marching down.
ReplyDeleteRH - Mark, I hope you're keeping an eye on this one for us, I'm counting on it!
ReplyDeleteEveryday bro!
DeleteGM - Starting to creep back up.
ReplyDeleteExcelon trying to buy Pepco - What's up with these energy sector buyouts?
ReplyDeleteRobot flipped long yesterday at 1874, didn't realize it had flipped short.
ReplyDeleteHopefully Yellen lifts the mood, I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling today myself.
ReplyDeleteF*ckin SNE.
ReplyDeleteCouldn't help myself. Bought LNKD today at $150.7 average, ahead of earnings. I am just thinking a few things here:
ReplyDelete(1) FB and TWTR got crushed after earnings. Everyone assumes the same for LNKD
(2) Sentiment is frigging horrible on Stocktwits etc for this stock
(3) Valuation for a monopoly type company is actually not that high. Estimates are for $2.1 Billion in sales this year. It trades at less than 9 times that right now. They have been doing around $0.40 EPS per quarter the past few quarters, but that figure is down because of huge spending to roll out new services and expand into overseas markets. I tried my best to estimate it but I'm having a tough time. I figure they would have done around $0.50 last quarter. Assuming that's a $2.00 EPS run rate and they grow EPS 30% the next 2 years (they're growing around 40% now) then that is a $3.30 EPS in 2016. They trade at 44 times those. Not cheap but for a huge growth company with a monopolistic type business and massive long term growth potential, I don't think it's too excessive.
(4) Most likely if this bounces say $5 today I'll trim some and see what happens with earnings. Otherwise I'll just hold.
I like the idea of playing it off TWTR/FB. Good luck.
DeleteEJ- Does this one need to drop another 50%?
ReplyDeleteXCO- Interesting reaction.
ReplyDeleteDamn I was looking at that yesterday thinking it looked bull
DeleteRe LNKD, it looks like it is trading at it's lowest p/s level ever (gurufocus charting) too.
ReplyDeleteI'd bet we see a big move one way or another though - seems like while over stock market anxiety is low, anxiety in names like these is high and people looking for direction.
It has basically had a waterfall decline. Not sure this is the bottom but it's pretty beaten up
DeleteBV - Hmm, Canadian Tire uses Bazarevoice on their web site.
ReplyDelete$6.65 is the dividing line, I bet it closes there today and falls again tomorrow thus prolonging the standoff.
DeleteSilver - Whatever she said it didn't help silver.
ReplyDeleteWake me when this nightmare is over.
ReplyDeleteOdds DATE closes lower yet again?
ReplyDelete$5.61 close
DeleteJackpot, omg, she's a swinger! :O
DeleteOne thing that scares me about lnkd is a chart like yahoo Fromm 2000
ReplyDeleteDid I mention I panic sold enph at the lows the other day? Fn a!
ReplyDeleteYeah, at $7.20 or so? That DB was where I was thinking of pulling the trigger and you were selling it!
DeleteOh the agony! Well I guess the only solace is I sold 1/2 at $8.1 but I bought back in...I think I ended up breaking even.
DeleteClippers are hot, buy the dip! Long Clippers....
ReplyDeleteAAN - ?
ReplyDeleteDecided to stick with SNE even though it's really pissing me off. I think there's just too much "stuff" inside that corporation for it to be worth $18 Billion. It's a junk company per Fitch / Moody's etc, so they got that going for them.
ReplyDeleteBailed on 1/2 of LNKD after hours (its up because of YELP). The more I looked into the charts of YHOO / EBAY / CSCO / etc back in 2000 the more it is making me realize how bubble stocks traded after they pop. And I firmly believe they popped early March.
ReplyDeleteLike I said the other day, I don't think LNKD is worth $100. All these stocks just got the relentless bid the last couple of years, so it is really hard to know what the real valuation is. But I think people are giving them the monopoly valuation (or even more than that) when they haven't proved themselves long term. Analysts are bad at extrapolating too far into the future and making bad assumptions. It's like saying AMZN can continue their sales growth and be profitable, but reality is the reason their sales are so high is they sell stuff cheap because their margins are low with no profits. Increase prices and watch what happens to growth, as we are starting to see now that people have to pay sales tax on AMZN purchases in some states, thereby levelling the playing field with other retailers.
DeleteRE: GM - Awesome move man. I was looking closely at F but couldn't quite get my head around the pension stuff. I guess SNE has the same issues but I like that they have a more diversified set of businesses.
ReplyDeleteI bought GM because it is cheap and beaten down because of the ignition issues and should play catchup to F's valuation. GM produces almost twice as many cars as F, but is worth $10 billion less. But the real potential big winner I think is still FIATY - they are a top 10 auto producer worldwide with their Fiat, Chrysler, Maserati ,Ferrari, etc., but they have a $14 billion market cap compared to Honda (HMC) at $60 billion who sells less cars.
DeleteIf FIATY can ever turn around their European sales of Fiat cars and get them profitable, should be a great move from here. Problem for me is I just don't have the faith yet they can do this, but I keep watching.
I've actually seen a few commercials with them in it. I like that idea. Good discount to book.
DeleteHXM - Whacked pretty good today, not sure what possessed me to take a peek just now as I hardly ever do but there it is, smacked down.
ReplyDeleteI just looked at that. Was looking through today's big losers. One came to mind: RM - down on higher provisions for losses. Looks cheap on paper. I'm digging around right now to see if this is a trend because I see that a lot of the credit type companies have been getting hit lately and am thinking maybe there's something to this. I see PRAA down a bit, FCFS has been weak lately, CIT took a hit the other day.
DeleteMan some of these charts are just downright scary in terms of parabolic moves higher. Look at a stodgy company like EFX. AXP, DFS....
Dont even get me started about these ones:
DeleteNFLX
PCLN
AMZN
Even ones like DIS or WDC are pretty damn parabolic.
If people lose some faith in NFLX's growth, could easily drop below $100 - would still a forward p/e of 15, basically a market average. It lost 80% of its value in 4 months in 2011.
DeleteI like the brand a lot but wonder if it will last with all of the competition. still like my OUTR (Redbox).
DeleteHere we are again, a stone's throw from the SPX high. You know what that means.......
DeleteFIG - Still got this one? This could be setup to lift anf the PE isn't even greater than 1,000,000?
DeleteNope sold right around 7.1
DeleteSilver's about to fall through it's azzhole again.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Anything under $6.62 is currently fair game until further(belated) notice.
WIth BSBR, it will trade in line with SAN until the buyout occurs in October. AT current prices, it is around $6.90.
DeleteSAN is interesting because they are a global bank with Spain accounting for about 25% of their business and the Spanish economy improving.
Morningstar yesterday raised it's fair value of BSBR to $9.00 and said basically you can take the SAN which is fairly valued or continue to hold BSBR which it thinks is undervalued by 25%:
On April 29, Santander Group, majority shareholder of Santander Brasil, announced an offer to buy out minority shareholders in a stock swap deal that values Santander Brasil ADR shares at roughly $6.90. We believe this offer undervalues this narrow-moat company. In our opinion, short-term headwinds in Brazil have weighed heavily on the stock, giving Santander Group a timely opportunity to offer a 20% premium to yesterday’s closing price while still paying below our fair value estimate. We are increasing our fair value estimate by $1 to $9 per ADR as we update the exchange rate, but the fair value increase does not reflect a change in our underlying assumptions.
Under the proposal, Santander Brasil shareholders who choose to accept the offer will receive 0.7 Santander Group shares for each Santander Brasil ADR. We currently see the shares of Santander Group as approximately fairly valued. This offer implies a price of roughly $6.90 per ADR share, which we think still discounts the value of the company by about 25%. Shareholders who opt to reject the offer can remain as shareholders of the Brazilian bank as shares will continue to trade on the NYSE and the BM&FBovespa stock exchanges. The acceptance period for the offer will fall in September 2014, while actual settlement would occur in October 2014 based on the expected timetable distributed by Santander Group.
So let's see, since SAN is currently $116B that would put the market cap of SAN at SAN+($25.73B*1.25) for new value of SAN, right?
DeleteBased on the reaction (BSBR isn't maintaining it's 20% offer) it seems the market doesn't currently agree BSBR is worth 25% more thus wonder if Morningstar might be doing someone's bidding while they exit their position?
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ReplyDeleteSold lnkd at $159 bought more sne at 16.86 and bought call at 17.3. Got the call idea from the reminiscences guy
ReplyDeleteNice work on the LNKD!
DeleteThx. Could've been better. Prob rips after hours
DeleteNice work on the SNE too! They should build a series of theme parks to leverage their entertainment business.
DeleteGM - Smokin!
GM April sales were above expectations.
DeleteI looked at CALL as well, but couldn't see why their app gains traction, but coukd be areally good one if it does. But you are a much better tech investor than me.
Bb all I know is my parents and all of their friends that are retired use magic jack.
DeleteTOF - They don't have smart phones? (neither do I)
DeleteThey do but they don't use them much at all. They use them for emergencies or if they're on trips. In fact I think they use Magic Jack thru the cell phones.
DeleteCIE - "Cobalt International Energy, Inc. Earnings Call scheduled for 11:00 am ET today CCBN"
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Yeah baby okay we'll see, was intending to add if this dipped a bit due to the IMMEDIATE recovery.
ReplyDeleteNot sure in calculating this correctly but I'm getting a ev/ebitda of 1.4 for sne?
ReplyDeleteMy broker has a ttm ebitda = $9.78B, finviz says bv/s=$22.85, I don't see ev
DeleteFIATY - This one must be good from the perspective my broker has a low-ball estimate on it:
ReplyDeleteBofAML 12 Month Objective $8.36
+144.21% BofAML 5 Yr. Est.Growth
P/E 32.95
52wk range: $5.81 - $12.50
PCRFY looks interesting as well. They might actually be a better turnaround candidate than SNE.
ReplyDeleteThey are similar stories with both being past their glory days and looking to turn things around. You need the Japanese Carl Icahn to get in there and uncover the value. Not sure if they have Japanese corporate raiders though.
Deletei know loeb is trying it with sne. man that country needs to get their shit together
DeleteCIE - Thankfully there's not a huge short float so maybe it can retest $18.41 ?
ReplyDeleteDBD/NCR - I betcha the rush to install/replace ATM machines isn't done yet?
ReplyDeleteNCR just was hammered, island reversal in progress?
Silver - I feel like repeating how glad I am I finally got out of silver. It still managed to hand me my ass on a platter big time, the impact was literally quite severe and still haven't recovered by a long shot but man if I'd stayed in would've killed me......
ReplyDeleteLearning to love taking losses was one of the hardest lessons I learned. It's never too late to sell.
DeleteCIE - F__k, I guess it isn't gonna test support.
ReplyDeleteI sold CALL at $18.1. Kind of hard to pass up on a 4.5% one day gain...especially in light of a friggin lethargic showing from my other stocks for a while now.
ReplyDeleteI still don't quite understand the beef with the announcement from SNE today. They said revenues would be higher and moved two one time charges into the current quarter that, after backing them out, implies their losses would have been lower than previously announced.
DeleteA lot of volume in that last bar, and it moved up slightly, not down.
DeleteBummer- had to take Patricia back to the hospital late last night. Nothing alarming but a set back. maybe she can get out Sunday.
ReplyDeleteMITK- Who could have guessed that number!
Hope she's out soon, bro.
DeleteIt was all work when I was younger. Now it's all family. With the 12-year-old, I can honestly say I haven't missed a click so far. None of us will ever regret 'too much time' with the family.
No doubt man. No doubt.
DeleteBest of luck to Patricia, Mark.
DeleteHang in there man, I'm confident you can get her through this!
DeleteMITK - Seems plenty of people had low expectations, guess they weren't disappointed.
DeleteSorry to hear about that Mark. I've been meaning to call you....been so busy here with people visiting to see the new baby. Hope you're hanging in ok with the kids.
DeleteCPST - Never forgo an opportunity to dilute your shareholders!
ReplyDeleteHXM "Mexican Home Builder Homex Files for Bankruptcy Protection at The Wall Street Journal"
ReplyDeletePAL - Nice job on this one too, coming soon?.
NFP. Wow that was really good. Better be enough to push us to new high across the board.
ReplyDeleteGood yes but how about rates? TBT maybe gets a pop?
DeleteRH - Entry is $61?
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +24 1017
ReplyDeleteSNE cool stuff huh?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gamespot.com/articles/ps4-company-sony-virtual-reality-not-even-starting-in-a-real-way-yet/1100-6419313/
Could be a nice catalyst.
Yeah, Sony has some great technology, and their internal culture reminds me of what AMD's used to be. They have a "friendly" policy that will blow you away, it's so different.
DeleteThis is actually what got me interested in AMD. I bought some today at 4.14. They have changed strategy completely to focus on non PC stuff more
DeleteNite Cap - Is this an evening drink or bedtime attire?
ReplyDeleteI love names for things like that.
DeleteShipper NM has had a pretty aggressive bounce the last couple of days. Maybe with the Baltic going up and the valuations better due to lower prices, we can start a move upwards.
ReplyDeleteMUX - Zoom, uber-low rates for eternity might at some point help keep silver from crashing in the distant future? Good opportunity to pick up some TBT as low rates should not be occurring as the economy transitions into robust growth?
ReplyDeleteQuiet here today. I know a lot of the guys have stuff going on, but I'm still liking this market.
ReplyDeleteMark, good luck with Patricia and the hospital!
I'm pretty much fully invested in overseas stocks at the moment since I see much more value in them. I saw a new fiat commercial today with puff daddy for the new 4 door fiat. Still like that idea but would need a selloff to get in. Probably means it never comes any time soon
DeleteFiat sub, Chrysler outsold GM in Canada last month, so people liking their vehicles, mainly trucks.
DeleteDodge just introduced a diesel 1/2 ton pickup that's getting attention.
Delete