shark- I've just been making pocket change trading the ultrashorts. Made $239 today trading TZA/ERY. Obviously I have no interest right now in large position sizes and/or holding periods longer than a few minutes.
tof- I would probably go long at SPX 950 only on the way back up. I wouldn't do it on the way down. That's the one change I would make playing a trend change this time.
2nd - if we trade like the Shanghai, which is closing in on a .318 retracement level of the entire bull run from 2008, then we're trading down to 840 in a slow grind. now black tuesdays, wednesdays, fridays, etc. just slow and steady, stopping out any dip buyers.
GMO - Good point on the 300dma Mark, almost like someone's got their sites set on it going there.
I'll be surprised if it does but probably won't be able to pass up the opportunity.
The one thing that makes me nervous about keeping my current position involves the possibility of direct bad news(such as loss of funding) occurring while it's beat down as opposed to the more indirect market correlations. What are the chances???
Sheesh, seems like China's either serious about taking the off-ramp back to the dark ages or they're forcing the issue with the bums(us) of the world. Surprising to me after all, from what I think I know the lifting of trade bans(ala Clinton) were what finally enabled their growth.
"Economy likely to maintain steady, rapid growth: PBOC
China's economy is very likely to maintain steady and rapid growth in 2010, with more positive factors than last year boosting the economy, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, said Wednesday."
"ICBC to offer loans to US real-estate owners Updated: 2010-06-30 15:09
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China's biggest bank, will offer loans of $100 million or more to US real-estate owners, the Wall Street Journal reported.
ICBC to offer loans to US real-estate owners While most US banks avoid such loans at present, ICBC, which is 70 percent owned by the Chinese government, reckons US real-estate values have fallen far enough for the risk to be acceptable, the newspaper said."
vb - The sentiment is very bearish out there, and we haven't seen a spike in volume like might be expected in capitulation. Yea, we could see 850 no reason to think we won't.
I'm not sure why grains spiked today, just that they did.
2nd - i'd be down for a black july. i'm waiting with cash in hand, making my list. i don't see any reason to be a hero at this point, with the S&P firmly greater than 3% below the 200 DMA.
mark - yeah, i saw that low of the day on AAPL. if it breaks down below 240 all bets are off on this bull market...just one guys opinion tho.
"Jesus Christ David, I'm not gonna make dog jokes, but have you seen ESLR?
The phones, computers and the big wad of silicon they use to make panels is worth more than 68 cents, eh?"
That's exactly what I am thinking. I don't know what the hell is going on with their stock, but the company is not near bankruptcy as far as I can tell, and so it has a good chance of rising about $2 once they finish their expansion in China and investors get their act together.
Remember what Buffet said: the price is something that you PAY, and the value is something that you GET in return. So just like UXG or WGW were not a sell at $0.5 in October 2008, I similarly think that ESLR is not a "sell" under $1 now.
But the hell with ESLR -- they have too many headwinds facing them at this point and it may take them a couple of years to get that cashflow to start coming in and have their stock rise above $2. I think the biggest opportunity right now is in ECU.TO. I got a notification at 1:25pm that someone DID sell me 8500 shares at $0.62 (even though I had a buy limit order for 10000 shares), and now my total position is 37000 shares. If ECU drops under $0.6, I'll buy 10000 more shares.
I called the company a couple of days ago and the investor rep told me that by the end of the summer they are planning to expand their revenue to $2.6m/month (in April they had $2.0m in revenue). Also, he said that they have a pile of gold pyrite concentrate, and by the end of the summer they'll likely announce a contract to start selling it for about $0.6m/month. They have a mill that produces this stuff, and so this $0.6m/month can be a steady cash stream. So in total, by the end of the summer, they are expecting to have $3.3m/month in revenue. Their current overhead expenses are $1.5m/month. This gives them a nice positive cashflow. The problem is that starting November, they will have to pay out their debt at $1m/month for 17 months. However, the rep told me that they are sure that they will be able to refinance it and lower their payments to at least $0.5m/month or even less (since they are in production now). The rep itself has about 700000 shares of ECU, and he said that he thinks the stock will rocket once they make the announcement about the contract to sell their gold pyrite concentrate and then rocket again when they announce debt refinancing. He also said that the whole float has exchanged hands already in the range $0.5 to $0.6, so all the weak hands have probably been already shaken out of this stock. I have been observing it closely for the past months and I also see clear signs of accumulation, as it is really hard to buy the stock at the bid. So I suggest that you call the company yourself (you can talk to the president instead of the investor rep), ask them all the questions you want and then make your decision.
The recent drop in the TED spread suggests that the risk of some banks *failing* in the near future has decreased in the past couple of weeks. Their expected future income stream has decreased, however, as is indicated by XLF reaching its lowest point in a few months today.
Mark, just search for "ECU silver" on Google. Kaimu was actively advocating this stock a couple of years ago when it was at $2, saying that it will be a nice Christmas present for him (he has accumulated hundreds of thousands of shares, I believe).
Another interesting point about ECU that the rep told me is that they are currently extracting more gold than silver (the base metals are at most 30% of the mix), and as they go deeper, the ratio of gold increases further. So even if silver tanks in the latest round of credit concerns, gold should do much better and might even increase in price.
The market didn't come unglued but it did continue lower out of an oversold condition and it did take out the well watched 1040 support.
So, the trend remains down.
As you know, support, when broken, becomes resistance. Therefore, the longer it stays under prior support the harder it will be for it to get back through it.
Since the market is oversold, use this is an opportunity to take partial profits and trail you stops lower.
There's a good chance that we're just getting started here. So, if you missed the last leg don't worry, they could be more to come.
ADDENDUM 8:30am ET: A moment or two after I published this morning, the US equity futures rolled over and went negative. But the $USD is still weakening and the Euro strengthening, so maybe the Fed and ECB want to own the equity markets in America and Europe as well. However, I do think there will be a temporary plug put in the dike this morning, with another attempt to rally the market, to squeeze the shorts who rushed in yesterday afternoon. Should the $USD keep falling, I feel Gold and Silver (futures at 1241.50 and 18.55 respectively) could burst out to new highs.
Addendum Submitted by Bill Cara (1594 comments) on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:02 #65240 Today is one of those explosive days in the market where I could write an addendum every half-hour. Nobody knows what's going to happen next.
Here is the CS take on the market this morning Submitted by Bill Cara (1595 comments) on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:21 #65243 The tone of markets changed dramatically during the second quarter. The S&P 500 dropped more than 11% during, and traditionally defensive sectors were the relative winners. That much we know. What we don't know is how long and how deep the correction in equity markets will run.
We believe three developments, taken together, played a central role in "taking the oxygen" out of the US equity market. One is liquidity. Or more precisely, the contraction in "excess liquidity" that is now underway. Another is the softening of leading economic indicators that point to a slowdown in S&P 500 EPS growth. And the third is an observed shift in US consumer behavior. Consumer spending is now growing more slowly than labor income. That is traditionally a negative sign for profit margins.
One positive -- we still peg fair value at 1050-to-1150 for the S&P 500 at year-end 2010. So as stock prices have declined, we think expected returns from US equities have improved. If the index moves lower from here, we anticipate putting some of our 10% cash position to work. We will definitely maintain a defensive bias to our recommended portfolio, but we are hunting for an industry or two with solid fundamentals to add to our recommended equity exposure.
NANO back to $9.50, it's really held up much better than anticipated too. I'd been hoping to trade it from $8.50 a couple more times and never got the chance.
And you know...Moving averages were never meant to work this way, regarding the dark cross idea. They only "work" normally when no one knows about them, i.e. in the long ago past.
When literally everyone is doing moving average studies on every single chart they look at, it perverts the action around the averages. They only "work" right when most people don't know about them.
And another thing. Right here there is a hell of a lot of buying as well as selling going on (duh). Since the cross has happened and "all" the stunads are positioned south on way or the other, don't be surprised if tomorrow and next week is a big up market.
This thing never was about logic...don't try to make it logical now eh?
Long PIR at $6.11. Can't pass up this chance at a bounce. It is just above the 200 DMA at $5.95 so its a logical point for a bounce. I may close the trade today.
shark - i agree on the rebound. look at the EUR...it's skyrocketing higher. I wouldn't be surprised to see us close back up over 1,040.
I'm long PIR in a big way because I think it's going to be one of the best performers in a bounce and it's at a low risk technical point, allowing me to stop out at a small loss below the 200 DMA.
Putting 10% of my LT investing account into SPY at the close. I may continue to do this every 5% lower but my guess is we may have reached some sort of trading low.
FYI - volume looks pretty high today. This reminds me of that day back in February as we bottomed out. We had a big spike down on a Friday with huge volume then rebounded and I think closed green. It went down the next day or two but it never went lower than that Friday's low.
Re: Minera Andes Submitted by papadynamite (175 comments) on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:00 #65272 (in reply to #65271) McEwen has done well on everything he owns. I got Rubicon near the top and protected myself with a stop before it started to sink. McEwen has done very nice on Rubicon up until now but I don't feel that the stock will perform well into the near future because they are near the stage of producing a mine which will probably be accompanied by large costs and their need to get additional funds which could involve share dilution. I don't feel this one is for me anymore.
UXG is a different story. It seems that mining El Gallo could be at a relatively low cost and at the rate they keep expanding the mineralization area, the mine life could be very long and productive. Of course, if Silver breaks out to the $25-30 range, profits will be enormous. In the meantime, I am keeping tabs on the positive drill results.
Does anyone have an idea as to why gold is falling together with $USD today, while the market is falling as well? Up until today, both $USD and gold were considered to be a safe haven, so a drop in both $USD and gold would make sense during a strong market rebound. But the market is falling today!
I expected nothing less from UNG: it formed a clear H&S pattern, then broke downside through the neckline to make sure that everyone got off the northbound train (being a reckless trader, I brought in some more luggage when the train had emptied), and then, in 2 days, it rose back above the neckline and no one probably feels like chasing it now...
Kyle, did "they" say why this trade is getting unwound now? Is this because things in Europe are improving and gold is no longer needed as a safe haven? Or is it just a one-day fierce "short covering" rally to shake out the weak hands from this trade?
Gold Gold also benefited from the increased uncertainty, despite the stronger dollar. Spot gold is consolidating in a fairly narrow range, between $1220 and $1250, indicating buying pressure. Upward breakout would signal an advance to $1330* — confirmed if retracement respects the new support level. Reversal below $1220 is less likely, but would warn of another test of $1170. Twiggs Momentum recovery above 8% would favor a strong advance, while reversal below 4% would indicate weakness.
Oh look, 117.12 for GLD. What do you say? Speak Solar! Solar? Soooolar? Come solar!?
I just noticed that one of my "standing" sell limit orders got hit today for 100 shares at $24 (let's say these were the shares I reloaded a couple of weeks ago at $20). Also, I just sold "manually" 100 more shares of TWM at $23.60 (let's say these were the shares I reloaded at $20.93 last week), since a rising Euro should pull the equity markets higher with it. That is, I have assumed that the currency traders are quicker to react to change than the US institutional investors, who are still selling today because the 1040 support was broken on the S&P yesterday.
We have been here before. I remember this neighborhood. There is a guy named Ben that lives on the corner and he always has a lot of cash for some reason. he loves to throw it around but he never gets the chicks.
There seems to be a steady uptrend in the daily market indices since the morning lows, which suggests that tomorrow might be a real up day.
On the other hand, the ECRI WLI growth index will likely drop tomorrow once again (since bond yields, stocks, and housing are 3 major components in it), and if it drops to -10% then it will seem like a recession is inevitable in the near future, and big money managers might exit their long positions in large numbers... I just hope that they might be smart enough to have a predictive model for WLI, and so the market drop we had this week might already account for the anticipation of yet another drop in WLI on Friday...
David - Steve Grasso just mentioned on Fast that he believes it was a one-day wonder with a particular hedge fund unwinding the Gold / Euro positions. One fund blowing out.
Darn..missed a good day for scalping. Still not sure who was the winner today, but leaning towards the bulls. Today was the second day in a row I saw some panic in the stuff I follow. Perhaps one more time to finally shake them all out?
shark- I've just been making pocket change trading the ultrashorts. Made $239 today trading TZA/ERY. Obviously I have no interest right now in large position sizes and/or holding periods longer than a few minutes.
ReplyDeleteCP- GMO is really right in the middle of it now. Very interesting tests abound from 2.99-3.06. Gap fill at 2.73 would also be right @ the 300sma.
ReplyDeleteCVS - kinda looks like a nice gift here... Must be one of the better balance sheets out there.
ReplyDeleteBlack Thursday? Black Friday? Black Tuesday?
ReplyDeleteMan, it just feels like we have one on tap.
If we get one, I'll have to mix a nice Black Russian to celebrate with.
tof- I would probably go long at SPX 950 only on the way back up. I wouldn't do it on the way down. That's the one change I would make playing a trend change this time.
ReplyDelete2nd - if we trade like the Shanghai, which is closing in on a .318 retracement level of the entire bull run from 2008, then we're trading down to 840 in a slow grind. now black tuesdays, wednesdays, fridays, etc. just slow and steady, stopping out any dip buyers.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Good point on the 300dma Mark, almost like someone's got their sites set on it going there.
ReplyDeleteI'll be surprised if it does but probably won't be able to pass up the opportunity.
The one thing that makes me nervous about keeping my current position involves the possibility of direct bad news(such as loss of funding) occurring while it's beat down as opposed to the more indirect market correlations. What are the chances???
Sheesh, seems like China's either serious about taking the off-ramp back to the dark ages or they're forcing the issue with the bums(us) of the world. Surprising to me after all, from what I think I know the lifting of trade bans(ala Clinton) were what finally enabled their growth.
tof- OK, I'll settle for a Black July.
ReplyDeleteColin Twiggs' 6/29 entry:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php
Based on today's close, I would say his downside target of DJIA 9000 is in play.
CVX- At 60.00 the yield would be about 5.5%. If it gets there I'll buy 1000 shares and hold it for 5 years.
ReplyDeleteI don't think I'm GEN anything. Born in 1964. Any ideas?
ReplyDeleteXOM... 57 cents from the cliff.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Did you see the LOD for AAPL was 250.01?
ReplyDeleteSelling in Asia hasn't abated.
ReplyDelete"Economy likely to maintain steady, rapid growth: PBOC
ReplyDeleteChina's economy is very likely to maintain steady and rapid growth in 2010, with more positive factors than last year boosting the economy, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, said Wednesday."
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/
2nd- I've been fighting off the kids. Last time I check the ES it was flat and now it's down .80%. What's shaking in Asia?
ReplyDelete"ICBC to offer loans to US real-estate owners
ReplyDeleteUpdated: 2010-06-30 15:09
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China's biggest bank, will offer loans of $100 million or more to US real-estate owners, the Wall Street Journal reported.
ICBC to offer loans to US real-estate owners
While most US banks avoid such loans at present, ICBC, which is 70 percent owned by the Chinese government, reckons US real-estate values have fallen far enough for the risk to be acceptable, the newspaper said."
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-06/30/content_10041327.htm
i even went short today.
ReplyDeleteit is starting to feel like a war zone. if i have to see another dead fish I might croak.
ReplyDeletehow is everyone here holding up?
vb - JJG jumped up today...
ReplyDeletecp, ah, it sure did! do you own it?
ReplyDeletedo you think we are we going back to 850?
Hey Darling! (Not you CP)...Flat here. How you been?
ReplyDeletevb - The sentiment is very bearish out there, and we haven't seen a spike in volume like might be expected in capitulation. Yea, we could see 850 no reason to think we won't.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure why grains spiked today, just that they did.
Thanks Mark honey!
Schnitzer's (SCHN) non-ferrous metals sales blow through analysts expectations.
ReplyDeleteGood for specialists AA/CENX
2nd - i'd be down for a black july. i'm waiting with cash in hand, making my list. i don't see any reason to be a hero at this point, with the S&P firmly greater than 3% below the 200 DMA.
ReplyDeletemark - yeah, i saw that low of the day on AAPL. if it breaks down below 240 all bets are off on this bull market...just one guys opinion tho.
"Jesus Christ David, I'm not gonna make dog jokes, but have you seen ESLR?
ReplyDeleteThe phones, computers and the big wad of silicon they use to make panels is worth more than 68 cents, eh?"
That's exactly what I am thinking. I don't know what the hell is going on with their stock, but the company is not near bankruptcy as far as I can tell, and so it has a good chance of rising about $2 once they finish their expansion in China and investors get their act together.
Remember what Buffet said: the price is something that you PAY, and the value is something that you GET in return. So just like UXG or WGW were not a sell at $0.5 in October 2008, I similarly think that ESLR is not a "sell" under $1 now.
But the hell with ESLR -- they have too many headwinds facing them at this point and it may take them a couple of years to get that cashflow to start coming in and have their stock rise above $2. I think the biggest opportunity right now is in ECU.TO. I got a notification at 1:25pm that someone DID sell me 8500 shares at $0.62 (even though I had a buy limit order for 10000 shares), and now my total position is 37000 shares. If ECU drops under $0.6, I'll buy 10000 more shares.
I called the company a couple of days ago and the investor rep told me that by the end of the summer they are planning to expand their revenue to $2.6m/month (in April they had $2.0m in revenue). Also, he said that they have a pile of gold pyrite concentrate, and by the end of the summer they'll likely announce a contract to start selling it for about $0.6m/month. They have a mill that produces this stuff, and so this $0.6m/month can be a steady cash stream. So in total, by the end of the summer, they are expecting to have $3.3m/month in revenue. Their current overhead expenses are $1.5m/month. This gives them a nice positive cashflow. The problem is that starting November, they will have to pay out their debt at $1m/month for 17 months. However, the rep told me that they are sure that they will be able to refinance it and lower their payments to at least $0.5m/month or even less (since they are in production now). The rep itself has about 700000 shares of ECU, and he said that he thinks the stock will rocket once they make the announcement about the contract to sell their gold pyrite concentrate and then rocket again when they announce debt refinancing. He also said that the whole float has exchanged hands already in the range $0.5 to $0.6, so all the weak hands have probably been already shaken out of this stock. I have been observing it closely for the past months and I also see clear signs of accumulation, as it is really hard to buy the stock at the bid. So I suggest that you call the company yourself (you can talk to the president instead of the investor rep), ask them all the questions you want and then make your decision.
All right David. I'm a sucker for a good penny stock. Do you have a link to the Co. web site?
ReplyDelete"1 and 5 year of TED.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
Comments David?"
The recent drop in the TED spread suggests that the risk of some banks *failing* in the near future has decreased in the past couple of weeks. Their expected future income stream has decreased, however, as is indicated by XLF reaching its lowest point in a few months today.
Mark, just search for "ECU silver" on Google. Kaimu was actively advocating this stock a couple of years ago when it was at $2, saying that it will be a nice Christmas present for him (he has accumulated hundreds of thousands of shares, I believe).
ReplyDeleteAnother interesting point about ECU that the rep told me is that they are currently extracting more gold than silver (the base metals are at most 30% of the mix), and as they go deeper, the ratio of gold increases further. So even if silver tanks in the latest round of credit concerns, gold should do much better and might even increase in price.
David- What do you make of the 5 year chart of TED. As far back as I can chart, 50 seems like a reasonable spread to me.
ReplyDeleteI'll google ECU, thanks.
David- Is ECU a Mcewen play?
ReplyDelete"David- Is ECU a Mcewen play?"
ReplyDeleteI don't think so...
"David- What do you make of the 5 year chart of TED. As far back as I can chart, 50 seems like a reasonable spread to me."
ReplyDeleteSure it is. That's why I said that the risk of any major banks *failing* in the near future is low.
Hi, Marky! just woke up and heading to happy donuts. (one of perks living in florida)
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to check market and say hi. By the way how about TGB?
10-yr yield still trending down. Not a good sign for the markets.
ReplyDeleteSPY RSI(2) is 1.96, I'm expecting a bounce (maybe)...
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market didn't come unglued but it did continue lower out of an oversold condition and it did take out the well watched 1040 support.
So, the trend remains down.
As you know, support, when broken, becomes resistance. Therefore, the longer it stays under prior support the harder it will be for it to get back through it.
Since the market is oversold, use this is an opportunity to take partial profits and trail you stops lower.
There's a good chance that we're just getting started here. So, if you missed the last leg don't worry, they could be more to come.
Cara-
ReplyDeleteADDENDUM 8:30am ET: A moment or two after I published this morning, the US equity futures rolled over and went negative. But the $USD is still weakening and the Euro strengthening, so maybe the Fed and ECB want to own the equity markets in America and Europe as well. However, I do think there will be a temporary plug put in the dike this morning, with another attempt to rally the market, to squeeze the shorts who rushed in yesterday afternoon. Should the $USD keep falling, I feel Gold and Silver (futures at 1241.50 and 18.55 respectively) could burst out to new highs.
Addendum
Submitted by Bill Cara (1594 comments) on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:02 #65240
Today is one of those explosive days in the market where I could write an addendum every half-hour. Nobody knows what's going to happen next.
Well, the 50/200 cross isn't here yet but will be, we'll find out for sure once that happens.
ReplyDeleteDamn- anyone who went long the ultrashorts this morning is getting whiplash right now...
ReplyDeleteHuge drop in dollar...
ReplyDeleteHere is the CS take on the market this morning
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Bill Cara (1595 comments) on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 09:21 #65243
The tone of markets changed dramatically during the second quarter. The S&P 500 dropped more than 11% during, and traditionally defensive sectors were the relative winners. That much we know. What we don't know is how long and how deep the correction in equity markets will run.
We believe three developments, taken together, played a central role in "taking the oxygen" out of the US equity market. One is liquidity. Or more precisely, the contraction in "excess liquidity" that is now underway. Another is the softening of leading economic indicators that point to a slowdown in S&P 500 EPS growth. And the third is an observed shift in US consumer behavior. Consumer spending is now growing more slowly than labor income. That is traditionally a negative sign for profit margins.
One positive -- we still peg fair value at 1050-to-1150 for the S&P 500 at year-end 2010. So as stock prices have declined, we think expected returns from US equities have improved. If the index moves lower from here, we anticipate putting some of our 10% cash position to work. We will definitely maintain a defensive bias to our recommended portfolio, but we are hunting for an industry or two with solid fundamentals to add to our recommended equity exposure.
Other than day trading, who the hell would hold into tomorrows report and a 3 day weekend?
ReplyDeleteFeels like 'everyone' expects a bounce, and thus we will not get one.
ReplyDeleteMark- Rates went down as far as 4.375% yesterday, but that included a point. I would take 4.375%-4.5% at no cost.
ReplyDeleteYield on the 10-yr at 2.945%...
ReplyDeleteBAC is selling off pretty hard.
ReplyDeleteHere's my take- longs are a train wreck waiting to happen...it's a dead trainload cruising.
ReplyDeleteYo- This might be the part where the sled picks up speed.
ReplyDeleteI don't think everyone's expecting a bounce 2nd.
ReplyDeleteBoy, this is getting ugly:)
Not a seller's market.
ReplyDeleteNext support for BAC is 11.90.
ReplyDeleteChicken, it's odd...
ReplyDeleteThe dollar is falling like a stone, the Euro is flying...and yet....
There was a bounce, it went green for a second or three...
ReplyDeleteThere were many the didn't go green though, looks like lower prices are still coming to us...
2nd- You might get your 'F... this shit' day here.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Nobody willing to sell here(yet).
ReplyDeletesharkie - There's nothing odd about the 50/200 cross that can't be avoided. That's what's being sold, IMO.
ReplyDelete10-yr 2.926%...
ReplyDelete10-yr 2.926%...
ReplyDeleteDCI - Finally broke through $42.04, held in there much longer than I thought it would.
ReplyDeleteInteresting how PAL and GMO are priced the same lately, same way gasoline is typically priced during volatility.
ReplyDeleteLookie there, gold ain't risin'... No, it's fallin'!!!
ReplyDeleteLooks like the equities slide is gaining steam.
Phunny, GG (a premium gold miner) has lost more so far today than GMO or PAL...
ReplyDeleteLookie at UXG too...
TNA catching up to SSO.
ReplyDeleteMid-morning lull....
ReplyDeleteSWC target ~ $9?
ReplyDeleteTC target ~ $8?
Yeah it's a messed up market.
ReplyDeleteNo 2 ways about it.
So PAL's gonna close under three even if S&P closes over 1k?
ReplyDeleteFor what it is worth,
ReplyDeleteThis has the feel of an exhaustion sort of crazy selling based on the idea of deflation.
Problem is, the central banks are going to re-stilulate, and these very stocks being killed today will be in great demand, not saying to stay long.
I got stopped out of all but 300 shares, I entered the order wrong for some reason, and I'm hanging on to these and going golfing:)
Not necessarily yo.
ReplyDeleteAlthough it's possible.
Wall Street is so stupid in a way...
You don't need to wait for a report to come out to know that housing is shitting the Pampers....
Talk to any real estate agent and they'll tell you.
10-yr 2.894%..
ReplyDeleteNANO back to $9.50, it's really held up much better than anticipated too. I'd been hoping to trade it from $8.50 a couple more times and never got the chance.
ReplyDeleteAnd you know...Moving averages were never meant to work this way, regarding the dark cross idea. They only "work" normally when no one knows about them, i.e. in the long ago past.
ReplyDeleteWhen literally everyone is doing moving average studies on every single chart they look at, it perverts the action around the averages. They only "work" right when most people don't know about them.
And another thing. Right here there is a hell of a lot of buying as well as selling going on (duh). Since the cross has happened and "all" the stunads are positioned south on way or the other, don't be surprised if tomorrow and next week is a big up market.
This thing never was about logic...don't try to make it logical now eh?
Hey, wonder how higher taxes are going to help create the jobs Obama campaigned on?
ReplyDeleteLong PIR at $6.11. Can't pass up this chance at a bounce. It is just above the 200 DMA at $5.95 so its a logical point for a bounce. I may close the trade today.
ReplyDeletePosition size is pretty big.
A STUNNING REVERSAL
ReplyDeleteLook at the charts of usd and euro...
This sucker HAS to go up. It frigging HAS to.
Stinky's on across the board. GL ladies :)
ReplyDeletefor PAL this may be the screwdoodle that refreshes. As 2nd pointed out, only a madman would still be long at this point,
ReplyDeleteAnd I guess you're looking at him:)
Seems to me the action would become more pronounced around the indicators as people become aware of their meaning.
ReplyDeletePerhaps we need a second order layer of indicators based on the primary indicators?
fn(dx/dy)=0, solve for y?
shark - i agree on the rebound. look at the EUR...it's skyrocketing higher. I wouldn't be surprised to see us close back up over 1,040.
ReplyDeleteI'm long PIR in a big way because I think it's going to be one of the best performers in a bounce and it's at a low risk technical point, allowing me to stop out at a small loss below the 200 DMA.
cp - StochRSI is one such indicator
ReplyDeleteI almost bought RBY at 3.20 and am still looking to get long I think.
ReplyDeleteLong NLS at $1.49...Small position and just a trade. Kangaroo Tail Reversal setting up.
ReplyDeleteIs it no surprise gold has fallen further than the U$D? I'm a little surprised it's fallen further than the S&P...
ReplyDeleteKyle - Thanks, I'm not familiar with StochRSI yet.
ReplyDeletecp - see if this link works...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:stochrsi
Kyle - Thanks, I'l look it over tonight.
ReplyDeleteOkay, so I bought some CADC... I think I'm the only bidder but it's cheap now...
ReplyDeleteGood luck to all the knife-catchers out there ;)
ReplyDeleteheres to hoping its a butterknife!
ReplyDeletePutting 10% of my LT investing account into SPY at the close. I may continue to do this every 5% lower but my guess is we may have reached some sort of trading low.
ReplyDelete2nd, ALY looks cheap...
ReplyDeletevb - JJG is still crankin' along... just punched through the 50dma and might just make it through the upper trendline today...
ReplyDeleteFYI - volume looks pretty high today. This reminds me of that day back in February as we bottomed out. We had a big spike down on a Friday with huge volume then rebounded and I think closed green. It went down the next day or two but it never went lower than that Friday's low.
ReplyDeleteSo it could be a good trading bottom here.
Back to 1040 and overhead supply, then down again.
ReplyDeleteThis never happens in a straight line.
Trailing stops all round....
RBY - Some cautious comments over at cc...
ReplyDeleteRe: Minera Andes
Submitted by papadynamite (175 comments) on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:00 #65272 (in reply to #65271)
McEwen has done well on everything he owns. I got Rubicon near the top and protected myself with a stop before it started to sink. McEwen has done very nice on Rubicon up until now but I don't feel that the stock will perform well into the near future because they are near the stage of producing a mine which will probably be accompanied by large costs and their need to get additional funds which could involve share dilution. I don't feel this one is for me anymore.
UXG is a different story. It seems that mining El Gallo could be at a relatively low cost and at the rate they keep expanding the mineralization area, the mine life could be very long and productive. Of course, if Silver breaks out to the $25-30 range, profits will be enormous. In the meantime, I am keeping tabs on the positive drill results.
CNAM - catapulting.
ReplyDeleteYea, UXG was a steal @ $3 for sure.
ReplyDeleteBC - Quite a move today.
ReplyDeleteTC - Somebody like it today.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone have an idea as to why gold is falling together with $USD today, while the market is falling as well? Up until today, both $USD and gold were considered to be a safe haven, so a drop in both $USD and gold would make sense during a strong market rebound. But the market is falling today!
ReplyDeleteI expected nothing less from UNG: it formed a clear H&S pattern, then broke downside through the neckline to make sure that everyone got off the northbound train (being a reckless trader, I brought in some more luggage when the train had emptied), and then, in 2 days, it rose back above the neckline and no one probably feels like chasing it now...
ReplyDeleteDavid - They've been talking about an unwind of the Long Gold / Short Euro trade all day. DZZ & FXE are getting it done (for now).
ReplyDeleteKyle, did "they" say why this trade is getting unwound now? Is this because things in Europe are improving and gold is no longer needed as a safe haven? Or is it just a one-day fierce "short covering" rally to shake out the weak hands from this trade?
ReplyDeleteThey're discussing it right now on cnbc
ReplyDelete2nd....the song for the next thread is the Who, we won't get fooled again....
ReplyDeleteThe view is great from the 50 yd line.
Gold
ReplyDeleteGold also benefited from the increased uncertainty, despite the stronger dollar. Spot gold is consolidating in a fairly narrow range, between $1220 and $1250, indicating buying pressure. Upward breakout would signal an advance to $1330* — confirmed if retracement respects the new support level. Reversal below $1220 is less likely, but would warn of another test of $1170. Twiggs Momentum recovery above 8% would favor a strong advance, while reversal below 4% would indicate weakness.
Oh look, 117.12 for GLD. What do you say?
Speak Solar! Solar? Soooolar? Come solar!?
I just noticed that one of my "standing" sell limit orders got hit today for 100 shares at $24 (let's say these were the shares I reloaded a couple of weeks ago at $20). Also, I just sold "manually" 100 more shares of TWM at $23.60 (let's say these were the shares I reloaded at $20.93 last week), since a rising Euro should pull the equity markets higher with it. That is, I have assumed that the currency traders are quicker to react to change than the US institutional investors, who are still selling today because the 1040 support was broken on the S&P yesterday.
ReplyDeleteWe have been here before. I remember this neighborhood. There is a guy named Ben that lives on the corner and he always has a lot of cash for some reason. he loves to throw it around but he never gets the chicks.
ReplyDeleteThere seems to be a steady uptrend in the daily market indices since the morning lows, which suggests that tomorrow might be a real up day.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, the ECRI WLI growth index will likely drop tomorrow once again (since bond yields, stocks, and housing are 3 major components in it), and if it drops to -10% then it will seem like a recession is inevitable in the near future, and big money managers might exit their long positions in large numbers... I just hope that they might be smart enough to have a predictive model for WLI, and so the market drop we had this week might already account for the anticipation of yet another drop in WLI on Friday...
Isn't tomorrow the jobs number?
ReplyDeleteSomewhere around 8:30 AM edt?
Clarity, conviction, consensus?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/clarity-conviction-consensus/
Yes, jobs tomorrow morning as I understand it. Have any been created?
ReplyDeleteDavid - Steve Grasso just mentioned on Fast that he believes it was a one-day wonder with a particular hedge fund unwinding the Gold / Euro positions. One fund blowing out.
ReplyDeleteBJ - I guess someone must think BJ's is/was under-priced.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Not looking too good there, guess families without jobs can't make mortgage payments.
ReplyDeleteObama better send these banks some more money soon!
He may as well take more money from bond holders and give it to unions as well, they're gonna need it too.
Gold - There's always some nebulous excuse that can't be verified...
ReplyDeleteBAC - I've still got some money set aside to buy BAC @ $3, but now I'm wondering if maybe it'll go to $1.50 this time around...
ReplyDeleteDarn..missed a good day for scalping. Still not sure who was the winner today, but leaning towards the bulls. Today was the second day in a row I saw some panic in the stuff I follow. Perhaps one more time to finally shake them all out?
ReplyDeleteCADC- OK, CP. Make the case.
ReplyDeleteGot my FTFL divy today. Man, it was more than I expected.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete