Thursday, September 9, 2010

9/10/10 NSM Spoils The Party> Party With NSM

The ugly reaction to NSM earnings/guidance has me sweeping INTC/AA off after hours- and replacing INTC with NSM @ 12.20 for a dead cat bounce.

Portfolio closes +0.50% for the day. Had I been able to sell OAKBX at the open, I have no doubt gains would have totaled >1%. As it is, OAKBX closed up just a penny. There's really no excuse for limiting transactions on mutual funds to EOD, in my opinion. The restriction has been 'waived' (legally or not) for large institutional customers often enough that it's clear intraday transactions should have little effect on managers' ability to steer the fund- if anything, it would attract more investors to the fund.

No interest in overnight risk right now.

143 comments:

  1. What the hell. NSM @ 12.20. If I had been 5 seconds faster, it would have been 12.15.

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  2. Taking a flyer on NSM newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4544 comments) on Thu, 09/09/2010 - 19:12 #68830
    Opening NSM @ 12.20. The news doesn't strike me as being that bad. Tight stop, however. For (what is likely to be) a dead bounce only.

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  3. JB- Re-PXP....This is an add on a pullback. I'm betting on a few things.

    1- If the market is to go higher, I would expect to see a rotation soon out of financials and into energy.

    2- I'm with David here on natty. We are nearing the end of the summer build and we are still well below 5 year storage rates.

    3- Hurricanes are not out of the question.

    4- The TBT angle. Crappy bid to cover, if rates FINALLY start to lift and the dollar drops, watch out for commodities.

    5- It sure looked to me like the MM ran some stops right at the close to get a large fill.

    6- I was Fing bored and had to do something :)

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  4. Since everyone follows ALL of my trades closely, here's an update....Largest position first.

    PXP +3.27%
    JPM +8.71%
    SWN +1.88%
    REDF + 62.50%
    INTC -4.73%
    HUN +1.63%
    GMO +4.98%
    HEK +5.16%

    In the IRA...

    SSO +6.52%

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  5. TOF- Let me know if you looked at the earnings report...or what you make of it. Gibberish to me :)

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  6. Mark- You have a larger position in REDF than you do in INTC? I don't know how you and tof handle the pressure...

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  7. 2nd - I'm not even married yet and have no kids so to me investing/trading is more a game than anything else, fortunately or unfortunately. I should probably take it more seriously, but whenever I do I get scared out of my winning positions. My position size is probably getting a little too big though.

    Mark - I read it and didn't get anything more out of it than their press release, to be honest. They don't really go into details on the quarterly filings.

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  8. 2nd- I actually didn't realize it was until I looked today. Didn't start out that way. You know I usually put on positions in 1/3. 15/30/45K. REDF was a little more than 1/3 when I opened it. Today it just jumped over ITNC in market value.

    Honestly, I wasn't nervous about it until today. I'm pretty damn sure I would have taken it off if I was here and saw it clearly get rejected right at it's previous high.

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  9. I don't think the Market is done beating up the bears yet.

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  10. I'm looking forward to another chance to play the short side- maybe early next week.

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  11. Mark- We just received our appraisal. Without revealing the actual number, I can tell you it came in slightly above our expectations. Not 33% above, as in your case ;)

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  12. Right on! Got a call today from the title Co. We'll close next week I think. Thanks again. Ted was great to work with.

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  13. Don't forget once you close you owe us a story....

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  14. Did you get to meet Ted in person?

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  15. Here's an example of why I think there's more pain in store for bears:

    Check out the headline, as well as the font size they use to display it.

    http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/freetop.aspx

    Then drop down to the market reaction: +1.44%

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  16. No. Talked on the phone and e-mails. We both always ended our conversations laughing...I like that.

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  17. Here's another: Seoul just broke above 1800 to hit a new 52-wk high.

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  18. "Incubator" bank??...Is something lost in the translation?

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  19. I think it's just the name of the bank. Maybe it positions itself as the go-to place for start-up funds.

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  20. Seoul's KOSPI breaks above 1800 to a new 52-wk high newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4545 comments) on Thu, 09/09/2010 - 20:50 #68833
    If the semi sector shrugs off the after-hours NSM/TXN negativity, then I think the next leg of the bull is ready for take-off. No opinion at this time as to whether SMH gaps up or down Friday morning.

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  21. Man, if REDF breaks above 3.44 tomorrow, we need to have dinner again soon...

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  22. REDF- I'm not comparing the 2 co. at all but the tading reminds me of FTWR last year. Cramer was pumping cell stocks and FTWR shot up. Day traders then caught wind of it and drove it from .40 to 1.80. Once it stalled it was an express elevator back to .40.

    If it does get back to 3.44 and I take profits there or any higher, I'll buy dinner for anyone who can make it.

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  23. 2nd - I haven't lightened up my long positions one iota, probably to my own detriment. I just get this feeling that bears are going to be dusted and demoralized after this run. I have no idea where to place my stops but I suspect it would be at about 1/2 of my gains.

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  24. oh and by the way, the Sensex continues to drive higher...just another reason why I'm heavy into REDF. I think investors have fully passed the baton from China to India and its gonna be a multi year thing.

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  25. then again, the Sensex is already up 4 times its value from 2003 so maybe the baton was passed a while ago. i get the feeling, though, that there is a ton of room for that economy to grow. it's a country of 1.2 billion people and their economy is only $1 Trillion. That's like 1/14 our economy and 1/4 Chinas right?

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  26. DJIA +21. Man, I probably allowed myself to get shaken out. I can see another +100 point gap up Friday to 'dust and demoralize' (that's a great phrase, tof) the bears.

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  27. After scrolling through intraday comments on CC, it's clear we still have too many bears. Wish I'd done that earlier, before letting the end-of-day sell-off, and later the NSM news, drive my portfolio decisions...

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  28. OK, just looked at the SPX. 200 is 115.59. If one believes such things, the MACD/histogram/RSI still show plenty of room to the upside.

    There's also a little trading rule that I know some people follow... Look for a low the Thur/Fri the week before OPEX to establish a ST long position into the next week.

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  29. Also just checked all my positions in CC rsi scan. Other than the 7day for JPM, middle of the range.

    I didn't check REDF....too afraid.

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  30. I checked it for you. It's not as bad as you think- it's worse ;)

    My take on these things is- if the RSI is high, it tends to move much higher before it finally drops to trigger the Sell Alert. And of course, we're all familiar with the reverse pattern- if the RSI is low, more often than not prices drop much lower before finally breaking higher to trigger the Buy Alert.

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  31. Something just blew up in San Bruno....Houses are on fire....

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  32. Related....

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/09/09/BADP1FBJRS.DTL

    Wait a minute here...Meth labs blow up....Perhaps it was recently MOVED there from near by.....

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  33. Damn....Knowing my luck it's a natty line PXP owns...

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  34. Mark-

    http://www.emergencystream.com/video_streams/CA/SanFrancisco2.html

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  35. 2nd- Thanks...Damn, I feel horrible for making jokes about this. Looking at the pictures I'm sure quite a few people lost their lives tonight.

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  36. It does conjure up memories of the Oakland Hills fire in 1991-

    Mark- They're saying it's a 24-inch gas main.

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  37. Bet when the dust settles a construction crew hit it.

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  38. One reporter on the scene is saying up to 45 homes affected-

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  39. When the light was better it looked like all of the homes in the area were flattened.

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  40. Got to be way more homes than that.

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  41. More tradegy... I need to shut down the computer on the san bruno explosion. sad

    on a lighter note, I will dream about redf going to 3.70

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  42. Great opening post/ The Departed newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4547 comments) on Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:44 #68860
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4nUFxsZqpA&feature...

    Great blogs are like great films. The first 2 minutes of a lead post draws the viewer in and sets the tone.

    All we're missing is the soundtrack.

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  43. Highly recommend Bill's opening commentary this morning.

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  44. Good Morning !

    re: cree

    Smart trend early report

    http://tinyurl.com/3xcwr4x

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  45. Here's something interesting...

    Deutsch Bank is going to be looking for 30 billion in financing....they won't admit why but it's to cover losses in the E.U, which is double-dipping or whatever but noone's talking about it.

    Thinking is after this rally peters sometime this fall it will be "son of credit crisis".

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  46. No disrespect to any gun-toting flag wavers, but I hate what 911 has become.

    Focus totally on the victims, absolutely no interest by our shaggy-haired paper-fetching lap-dog media to ask any of the interesting questions surrounding the events of that day.

    But I was there. And I saw that shit unfold live. And I what happened.

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  47. I agree with 2nd. I think Bill is back.

    TLT down, Dollar up, Landry's arrow sideways.....
    at 1100 resistance, with no real breakthrough.

    I read the Euro bank story last night and it got my attention, but what really did was yesterdays screwy market action of a somewhat down to flat market with bonds losing ground.
    Something's up since the boys of summer are back.
    FF

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  48. Re: Taking a flier on NSM newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4550 comments) on Fri, 09/10/2010 - 09:42 #68873
    bigwad- OK, I took the 10 cents. Off @ 12.30.

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  49. Taking a flier on TZA newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4551 comments) on Fri, 09/10/2010 - 09:52 #68877
    31.39...

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  50. Man, I'm so totally fucked here. Schwab has changed the style/layout of my trading platform. Totally fing blind. Can't believe it....

    What happened to DELL.

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  51. Mark- That's just not right. Is there some way to reset the display to 'Classic View' or something?

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  52. Mark- It's not looking good. We're still green for the day. Here's my recommendation: Sell everything, lock in your gains. No joke.

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  53. If I'm wrong, you will have given up some gains. If I'm right- you will be sidestepping some uncomfortable losses.

    As always, I'm wrong more than half the time...

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  54. You have a 60% gain in REDF? Take it, man. You can buy it back later.

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  55. Craig- Not only is he back, he's back in a big way. 60% weighting in a 3x index short? Holy cow, man.

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  56. Not sure what's propping the market up. I see nothing but supply- who's taking the other side?

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  57. alright...went to the dark side. sold CREE at a nice little loss. out of all of my CREE. and I added a few SPY $112 Sept puts to hedge. Debating selling a bit more. Don't like the news about Basel III regardless of where I think the market may go...

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  58. 2nd- I'm seriously thinking about it.

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  59. screw...went back into CREE long at $48.6.

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  60. by the way, i have no desire to sell REDF right now. let's say i sell right now at $3.05 and let's say the market dips down to 1,050 again because of basel III...i suspect REDF would go to $2.6. However, the minute the market bounces back after fear-ridden selling, REDF will shoot right back up to the low to mid 3's and i'll be left wondering if i should hop back in at a price higher than when i sold. in looking at the volume in this stock over the past few weeks, i'd say there are a lot of people looking for ways to play the india market and the demand for this stock will stay strong. market cap is still only twice their cash.

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  61. RIG - total moonshot...bought back a short call

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  62. Well, it looks as if we won't be bored today.

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  63. OK...it's been a hell of a run. ALL off. Did the best I could for each position. Ended the day up 1.1K. Just a whisper below last Friday's high.

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  64. bought TZA at 31.47, sold at 31.62, net $1050

    Can't keep browser running while trading today, as system is super slow. Running on one laptop only today.

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  65. Here's the thing. We've bumped up against this level 3 times now. If we break out, so be it, but I just don't see the catalyst. And looking at the order flow for the stuff I follow, sell's stacked up across the board.

    BTW...reading BC's comment, his position is reckless. 60% 3X then saying it could happen in OCT.? He used to hammer us for playing at the ultra table.

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  66. sold way too early again..... blahhhhhh!

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  67. mark - i only see us hitting this level once: yesterday at the open. and today isn't over so there's always a chance we bust through today.

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  68. Bill's gut is telling him something...

    Time to buy a Stairmaster!

    No I actually agree with Bill today. Or should I say, Bill finally agrees with me:)

    Europe's going down.

    Oh and in the "I have a dog named Solar" category, ....

    " MARLBORO, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Evergreen Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: ESLR - News), a manufacturer of String Ribbon® solar power products with its proprietary, low-cost silicon wafer technology, announced today that the Company will be presenting at two investor conferences in September.

    Tuesday, September 14, 2010 at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time – 2nd Annual Clean Technology and Industrial Growth Conference in San Francisco.
    Wednesday, September 15, 2010 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time - Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference in New York.

    Representatives from the Evergreen Solar management team will discuss the Company’s business strategy and review recent accomplishments. Presentation materials will be available on the “Investors” section of the website, www.evergreensolar.com."

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  69. Added Cree at $47.6. Position is still small

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  70. S&P green, TZA green, TNA red, SPY green, WTF is going on?

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  71. I decided that I want to have fewer "trading" positions to worry about, and so I just sold at $33.40 the 300 shares of TBT I reloaded at $32.12.

    At the same time, I got stopped out this morning at $0.63 out 5000 shares of ESLR I purchased at $0.68.

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  72. Seems to me only a few brave souls are betting on a breakout based on no catalyst and most everyone else thinks it won't/can't happen.

    I can't argue with the bears, except to say S&P PEG is currently 0.77

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  73. Re: Taking a flier on TZA/ Off newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4554 comments) on Fri, 09/10/2010 - 12:23 #68904 (in reply to #68877)
    Off @ 32.22 for a +2.6% gain. Will be looking to reenter.

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  74. I also see that UNG is having a good day today, after I "spooked" it yesterday by placing a buy limit order that was missed by a penny. Could it be that yesterday's low has actually marked a bottom in UNG for this Fall?

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  75. PAL - I'm out, looking to dump some GMO as well in preparation for rougher seas.

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  76. Good move, CP. I sense increased risk, which is currently not reflected in the bid/ask for VXX...

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  77. My broker made some changes too, took away the "all or none" conditional order.

    The features in this account are moving in the wrong direction... They were supposed to be expanded but that's not happening in a way that works for me.

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  78. PAL - That order of 1000 shares filled mostly in 100 share trades, which if I hadn't set my sell limit low enough could've been a partial fill and accomplished essentially nothing for me.

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  79. BTW, I'm selling today on the advice of my dust-laden stairmaster exercise device.

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  80. Adding 6 long-range missiles>SPY Oct 111 puts newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4555 comments) on Fri, 09/10/2010 - 12:49 #68908
    2.92

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  81. How do you guys typically place orders, these are my new list of options:

    "market"
    "limit"
    "stop"
    "Day"
    "good until canceled"

    Maybe I should reposition this account for the free trading privileges.

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  82. cp - "Limit / Day" is my usual default. Good until cancelled (GTC) is what I use for stink bids.

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  83. "Seems to me only a few brave souls are betting on a breakout based on no catalyst and most everyone else thinks it won't/can't happen.

    I can't argue with the bears, except to say S&P PEG is currently 0.77"

    Chicken - the bearish argument is always the more logical, well thought out argument. Being a bull right now just doesn't make much logical sense. That's part of the reason I'm bullish.

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  84. CP- I almost use 'Market.' When I want an order filled, I'm after an immediate fill.

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  85. Having said that, I'm rooting for lower prices because (a) I can sell my stupid hedges that I put on today at small profits and (b) I can use those small profits to buy more longs. Do I think we could go down to 1,080 short term? hell yes. But I would take it as a gift.

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  86. cp - If you want out 'Right NOW' then hit the bid w/ Market

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  87. Kyle - So you're okay with a partial fill? I'm gonna miss "all or none", do you not have such a function?

    thx,

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  88. tof- You need to reread your post a couple of times. I understand where you're coming from, but sometimes it pays to seek shelter when you see storm clouds on the horizon. We've had a pretty good bounce off 1040 (an awesome bounce, actually)- do you want to lock in a few gains, or bet you can run further out to sea for more before heading home?

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  89. "If you want out 'Right NOW' then hit the bid w/ Market "

    Duh! Man my learning curve just went parabolic!

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  90. CREE - Compare the 1year/Daily chart MACD(12,26,9) with the BP & RIG chart from May-June. A lesson I learned this year is do not even think about buying into a falling knife until the MACD bottoms-out. And even then go short the puts BELOW what you think is the bottom and work up from there.

    CREE short Dec 40 puts MAYBE...

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  91. I hate the thought of having sold to a computer today, that's just so convoluted...

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  92. cp - I never do 'all or none'...the pullbacks in these markets are such that you'll probably get a better opportunity in Oh say 50sec after you hit the buy button...

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  93. Use limit orders mostly. Like Kyle, GTC for stinkys. Use AON for cheap stocks. I HATE partial fills.

    I have to say, I nailed the rotation out of financials and into energy. I also have to say my trading platform disaster this morning shook me up a little. Can't really explain it, but kinda like a dream I seen to have once in a while...Back in college, sitting in class and suddenly there is a test I had no idea was that day....Oh ya, I'm also the only one there naked.

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  94. INTC was looking sad, so I bought at 17.85, sold already at 17.89 adding $120 to today's net.

    Not sure why I bothered, LOL

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  95. 2nd - i have a few SPY puts and some long BGZ as hedges that i entered today between SPY 111 and 111.30. that's enough of a hedge for me. i personally think we pause for maybe a day or two before going to 1,150. i'm hedged for the day or two pause. if i'm wrong, i'm wrong. but i'm not ready to sell my positions.

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  96. TOF- I hear you man. Great pick!! I just didn't like yesterdays trading and looking at today I see 28 red volume bars and 6 green ones. If it's really for real, it should pull back and consolidate forming a new base. If it just takes off, I'll still be happy cause your still in it!!

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  97. CREE - a caller asked Landry about this one if I recall correctly in one of his videos. Look at the 5Year/Weekly chart...200WMA is 33.10 & Aug 09 breakout was from 35 level. It's going there...

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  98. Mark - another thing...i'd say about 70% of the time i go short i lose money. about 70% of the time i go long i make money. continuing to go short would just reinforce the definition of insanity, wouldn't it?

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  99. TLT keeps getting knocked down and keeps trying to get back up. Stubborn SOB that thing is...

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  100. TOF- Tell me about it. I've made money scalping on the short side, but have gotten killed on any short swing trades. I think it's just easier for to play the long side for all the obvious reasons.

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  101. Did any of you guys find out what happened in DELL? Opened down 3% and hasn't changed.

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  102. CP: It's always to a computer. Yours, mine, GS's.....

    FF

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  103. JPM/XLF just broke their respective pivot points.

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  104. mark - a number of analysts are downgrading the outlook for pc shipments and that's killing dell.

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  105. I was just going to see if you were here bro. Fing glad I could get out of DELL for a nice profit.

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  106. FF - My computer doesn't bid the price down fractionally 100 shares at a time with a duration of microseconds but I wish it did.

    Padlocks only serve to keep honest people honest.

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  107. yeah, you timed it good bro. been on the phone with them all a.m.....those clowns are in for a rough go imo

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  108. DBB - Showing losses again today, have base metals topped out in the face of uncertainty while awaiting a new set of marching orders?

    I'm transfixed on silver, the price action is hypnotizing.

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  109. spx just pushed up above r1, maybe today is the day we really ramp up into the close.

    my 62% long portfolio sure hopes so!

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  110. not really loving the trading in STT...I may close it at the end of the day and take my profits. I entered at around $35.8. It tested its gap up at $38.9 and was beaten down. Then again, stocks/markets rarely do just one test of resistance.

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  111. JB- TLT just broke S1 also....I'll wait till about the last half hour before scalping the close on the short side.

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  112. JB..take a look at SDS. Hit S1 at the open, bounced off PP and now just bounced again of S1 with volume...

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  113. Put in sell orders to close out SPY and MDY at the close of trading...will probably close out STT as well assuming it trades below $38 at close. I suspect they close it at $37.99 just to f with me.

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  114. still maintaining a death grip on REDF and long CREE.

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  115. Beijing has moved the release of key economic data for August to Saturday from Monday?

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  116. mark - how funny i was just looking at SDS, think it ends the day right around 31.44-31.48?

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  117. JPM has slowly been breaking down all day.

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  118. i'm pulling some longs because i'd like to see how the market reacts to a pullback, which will probably happen in the next few days. if it gets bought then i will buy back in.

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  119. JB- I'm hoping to get in @S1. I suspect some selling into the weekend, 9/11, etc.

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  120. bought TZA low 31.70's, sold 31.83, sold too soon, made another $500, I think, now at $1790 for the day

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  121. dont get the action in JPM; should be fairly well set for BASAL III, just broke thru S1...somebody knows something

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  122. cocktails on cb!

    nice work.

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  123. TLT still dropping. Come on baby...give me a little more room...

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  124. TOF- There's a 10,000 share bid in REDF @ 3.04. Only large bid I've seen all day. At least you'd know what you could get out at.

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  125. Mark - no desire to sell REDF yet. I see the bid out there, but it's not quite enough to absorb my shares even if i were to sell

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  126. TOF- OK...good. I was watching it all day and the lack of bids had me worried about you. Go get-um!!

    Might just be a big flat nada into the close. Don't force it.

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  127. Re: Adding 6 long-range missiles>SPY Oct 111 puts/ OFF
    Submitted by 2nd_ave (4558 comments) on Fri, 09/10/2010 - 15:45 #68933 (in reply to #68908)
    Closed at 2.78.

    edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
    Re: Adding VXX @ 18.76/ OFF @ 18.56
    Submitted by 2nd_ave (4558 comments) on Fri, 09/10/2010 - 15:47 #68934 (in reply to #68882)
    No interest in holding anything over the weekend.

    Back to 100% cash.

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  128. Think I'll take what I got and walk away flat...

    It was a good week.

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  129. I'll see you guys at the bar.....

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  130. Mark - what I saw in REDF today (down 8% at one point only to close green) is what I'm going to look for when the market drops next week at some point. If it gets bought up its going higher. I'm about 80% long so I think it will continue to go up.

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  131. Re: Adding VXX @ 18.76 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4559 comments) on Fri, 09/10/2010 - 16:05 #68937 (in reply to #68935)
    gforce- Yes, thanks to Vad + seemingly endless practice in 2009, I stop out quickly when I'm wrong.

    I actually ended up with a loss for the day (including several trades I didn't post), but due to (a) proper position sizing, (b) letting the one winner (TZA) run, and (c) taking losses quickly on misplaced bets, the loss comes out to -0.04%, or -0.0004*(total port)> I can live with that.

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  132. tof- Credit where it's due. Right now it looks like holding tight was the right call.

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  133. TLT - Support held @ the 50DMA, but I suppose you guys noticed that too...

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  134. United States Natural Gas Fund LP Falls 0.63% on Heavy Volume: Watch For Rebound (UNG)

    Written on Fri, 09/10/2010 - 1:10am
    By Chip Brian
    United States Natural Gas Fund LP (NYSE:UNG) traded in a range yesterday that spanned from a low of $6.20 to a high of $6.42. Yesterday, the shares fell 0.63%, which took the trading range below the 3-day low of $6.33 on volume of 25 million shares.
    Shares of United States Natural Gas Fund LP are currently trading below their 50-day moving average (MA) of $7.32 and below their 200-day MA of $8.25. Look for these MAs to provide resistance for a short-term rebound in the shares.
    SmarTrend is bearish on shares of United States Natural Gas Fund LP and our subscribers were alerted to Sell on July 08, 2010 at $7.55. The stock has fallen 16% since the alert was issued.
    SmarTrend has the shares in a Downtrend and expects the share price to rebound toward the $6.34 resistance level. Afterwards, we expect it to move downward with its peers in the SmarTrend Oil & Gas- Drilling and Exploration industry.

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  135. For those who don't stop by SOH....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d51QNlxGbWs

    I'm checking to see if I can book this guy as a speaker for our next dinner :)

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