Wednesday, September 8, 2010

9/9/10 Somebody To Love



I found a clip showing a few of today's financial gurus on the road to higher learning in the sixties (illini may have seen one sitting in the back row of one of his classes). Slick was already channeling a warning to those who place their faith in gurus (worse, allow their portfolios to be directed by gurus):

When the truth is found to be lies
And all the joy within you dies
Don't you want somebody to love
Don't you need somebody to love
Wouldn't you love somebody to love
You better find somebody to love

When the golden flowers in the port are dead yes
And your mind, your mind is so full of dread
Don't you want somebody to love
Don't you need somebody to love
Wouldn't you love somebody to love
You better find somebody to love

Your highs, I say your YTD highs may look like his [yeah]
But in your head baby I'm afraid you don't know where it is
Don't you want somebody to love
Don't you need somebody to love
Wouldn't you love somebody to love
You better find somebody to love

Tears are running [ahhh, they're all] running down your breast
And your friends baby they treat you like a guest.
Don't you want somebody to love
Don't you need somebody to love
Wouldn't you love somebody to love
You better find somebody to love

108 comments:

  1. 2nd- Too funny man!!

    CP- V was downgraded today by BAC-Merril. PT 80.

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  2. We rally tomorrow. 1-2%. Why?

    (a) A major rally is on no one's radar screen, whereas-

    (b) A major sell-off would surprise no one.

    That's it.

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  3. Are you kidding?? I had only straight-laced engineers sitting in back of me in 1963. We hitched our slide rules to our belts, like a holster. One guy went on to be Chief Engineer for Boeing's Military Division in Saint Louis (McDonnell Aircraft back when he started).

    I could a been exposed to the other world if I would a gone to the Joan Baez concert but I did not. The only concert I ever went to was Ahmad Jamal and it was great.

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  4. The Don't Pass Line newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4537 comments) on Wed, 09/08/2010 - 21:13 #68764
    We rally tomorrow. 1-2%. Why?

    (a) A major rally is on no one's radar, whereas
    (b) A major sell-off, if not widely expected, would nonetheless surprise no one.

    That's it. In this case (and only IMO), the table is crowded with shorts betting on a continuation of the (recent) down trend, while opening longs would be a quiet bet on the Don't Pass line.

    FD- I'm wrong more than half the time. But I hope to successfully manage being wrong with a combination of tight stops on long positions opened this morning +/- adding an inverse ETF hedge of the position in OAKBX (which only trades EOD).

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  5. How's that for sticking my neck out?

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  6. illini-

    Talk about sixties-deprivation- well, in retrospect it's hard to say if you really missed out, or just dodged a bullet.

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  7. Ahmad Jamal was not a bad 'alternative' to Joan Baez. Some people would even say you had the better experience.

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  8. Re: The Don't Pass Line newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4538 comments) on Wed, 09/08/2010 - 21:25 #68765 (in reply to #68764)
    My other 'impression' right now is that market character tilts more towards 'wall of worry' than 'slope of hope.' Again, that's JMO.

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  9. 2nd, your last words are wisdom.

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  10. Yeah, let's just hope they're not famous last words...

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  11. Right on cue, I already see the ES mocking me...

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  12. REE - That didn't work out too well today unless you bought and sold early... 22x volume.

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  13. We stick our necks out everyday. Unlike gurus.

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  14. A comment on the sideways, yo-yo market: The EMA's in all three time frames (20,63,200) on SPX are all scrunched together around 1090. Tonight we are at 1099 but if we drop a mere 9 points the up-trend will flip to down in those same major time frames. It's a crap shoot. Trend less market per EMA's.

    If you like the 200 Simple MA better, then you have more of an obstacle on the upside to confront before a long term bull is the call @ 1115.5.

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  15. Ut-Oh...Cooper down almost 2% in the blink of an eye.

    http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYMEX_HG.Z10.E&t=&a=&w=&v=s

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  16. Cooper now down 2.8%. Crude has given back all it's gains. I watch this chit all the time and have never seen a move like that in copper this time of day and that fast. Come on guys, we need to find out why.

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  17. Man, metal prices are all over the place tonight from what I see. DBB held onto it's gains and has been flying off the June bottom.

    You know what they say about base metals having a PHD in economics....

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  18. Wondering whats happening with CU? I hold GLD but not affected as much. Also hold a CEF with miners, etc.

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  19. Come on CP...Your the master of digging this chit up. Something happened.

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  20. S&P E-mini also took a bit of a downturn.

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  21. AUS$ still strong on good unemployment #'s. Shoot...I'm off to the store for dinner. I would like an explanation upon my return.

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  22. No explanations but soybeans took a hit also.

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  23. Mark- If you can manage to remain at the store for 24 hours, I'll try to come up with one.

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  24. CREE: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10855386/1/will-the-bleeding-end-for-cree-led-stocks.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI

    FF

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  25. Silver - That was a higher high today since the highest high on my chart of $21.40, March 2008.

    Silver could be a good short pretty soon? Since it's a byproduct metal, it could be in short supply if mineral extraction has fallen off, which might justify the price. It also has industrial uses, which if manufacturing demand has fallen off might not justify the high price?

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  26. FCX - Chart looks a little toppy here, now on the upper trend line drawn back to mid June. This one's been pretty volatile but could be ahead of itself?

    I sure didn't like the way PAL sunk and couldn't hold it's gains today... but Palladium prices aren't near all-time highs are they?

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  27. Actually, palladium looks a bit toppy on the chart as well.

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  28. After CP mentioned FCX today, I checked out its chart, overlayed it onto the AA chart and saw that FCX has noticeably outperformed AA recently. So now it's AA's turn. Since I already have 900 shares of AA, I think it is a good time now to hedge them by shorting some FCX. So I just placed a sell stop limit order on FCX at $77.80/$77.70, just below yesterday's weak close.

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  29. sold too early again...

    didn't want to take the risk on jobless claims, and instead of worsening, it got better on me.

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  30. Jobless claims drop by 27k-> Bear raid is on...

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  31. Landry-

    Random Thoughts:

    The big blue arrow continues to point sideways.

    At the risk of boring you to death: As a trend follower there's nothing to do when there's no trend to follow. Write that down.

    Futures are fairly strong pre-market. Therefore, for the aggressive, keep an eye out for OGRes. See my website for articles on trading gaps.

    Best of luck with your trading (or sitting on your hands) today!

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  32. shark,
    I bought lvs yesterday (before you suggested mgm). I will take a look at mgm too. Also bought cisco and slw this week

    how about somx?

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  33. Good call so far 2nd. Are you restricted to mutual funds in your LT account?

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  34. Yes, unfortunately. However, I picked OAKBX this time for two reasons:

    (a) It's more conversative (ie, less volatile), and
    (b) No short-term trading fee, so I can trade in and out without penalty.

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  35. On the other hand, it often works to my advantage, as it keeps my hands tied and prevents me from exiting positions too early.

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  36. Odds Off The Don't Pass Line newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4539 comments) on Thu, 09/09/2010 - 09:37 #68786
    BAC/CSCO/WFC/XOM off into opening strength.

    Still holding AMAT/INTC/OAKBX.

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  37. Oh what a beautiful morning, oh what a beautiful day...

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  38. Does Friday's jobs report tomorrow put the nail in the coffin for bears?

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  39. Glad to hear you're having a good day, CP.

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  40. Looks like my DELL/AONE dumps are holding.

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  41. Playing the 6 and 8 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4540 comments) on Thu, 09/09/2010 - 09:53 #68787
    The 6- AA @ 11.19
    The 8- Adding to AMAT @ 11.69

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  42. We probably close +150 on the DJIA...

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  43. PAL's making another run @ the 200. Go baby!

    2nd- The next Jobs report is a month away.

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  44. I honestly can't believe energy is still lagging.

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  45. Right, sorry. But putting it out there in cyberspace anyway is classic Sun Tzu...

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  46. Well, I thought we were about to get hit with lower prices, so anything but, is a pleasant surprise.

    Still looking forward to the silver battle around $21.40.

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  47. Their still hammering away on X.

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  48. i tell ya...this market wants to go much higher...everything i have except CREE is working which is a nice thing.

    meanwhile, freaking CREE can't get out of its own way.

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  49. CP- Lower prices? You've been reading the wrong blog...

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  50. 2nd - I didn't get my notion from a blog really, I got it from looking over the charts.

    Long term I still believe we're gonna pull out of this slump and these past couple years have presented a historic buying opportunity.

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  51. Shanghai lost elevation last night, wonder what happened there?

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  52. Natty in line....But still less than the 5 year average.

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  53. Chicken - I don't pay much attention to Shanghai to be honest.

    I decided to buy 2 more CREE October $50 calls at $3.4. Not sure if it will bounce but it is down about $22 in one month so a bounce is more than likely in order.

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  54. still holding my REDF, in fact I think i have a death grip on it.

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  55. TOF- LOL...I was just going to ask about it. Same here, but it has now gone from a 1/3 position to a 2/3 position without any adds. I keep thinking I should sell enough shares to let it ride with the houses money. Great call bro.

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  56. tof/Mark/vb- If you held REDF through the Tuesday/Wednesday volatility, then you deserve the outsized gains. It had to be a gut-wrencher.

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  57. SWN has to be the worst preforming energy play out there. Still nicely green, but come on....

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  58. hey Mark - yeah i've been looking at how these breakout stocks act after they have broken out and the vast majority of them just continue higher for several months/a year before breaking down at much much higher prices. i'm not saying it's definitely gonna happen but i'll take my chances. generally speaking it pays to have patience with these and wait for a breakdown back through the 200 DMA before selling

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  59. I think the market's pausing here basically to jettison a few passengers.

    As Bill likes to say, 'The pause that refreshes.'

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  60. added a couple more CREE calls at $3.2. I'm done with this one and will just wait it out. Company has $12/share in cash and is trading at 14 times earnings.

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  61. STT looking good...still holding long on that one. let's see if it can break through $40.

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  62. Mark- Glad you caught the lateral moves- probably comes from having an umpire in the family.

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  63. Back above Friday's highs, no thanks to SWN.

    TOF- OK, thanks. I'll let your call the plays on this one. It's your baby.

    GL guys....

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  64. Mark - Keep in mind that if this gets to $10 I might have to call it quits on this because I'll be able to quit my day job at that level!

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  65. "Wall Street Rises on Upbeat Economic Data"

    These reactionary moves are my proof the market can't project into the future any further than ~72 hours.

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  66. right on CP, primary reason why I've cut my "normal" position size down

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  67. Good grip on REDF, TOF!

    I, on the other hand, feel highly suspicious of this spike up (it looks very unusual), and so I just sold my last 1000 shares at $3.30 (which I purchased at $2.05). So I'll remember REDF for an amazing trading gain, rather than an amazing contribution to my overall portfolio balance...

    Another reason for selling REDF is a desire to make a lateral move into HNUZF, since NG storage is edging closer and closer to the 5-year average every week. At some point this coiled spring will explode upwards, and I want to there when it happens. I placed an order for 1000 shares of HNUZF at $3.70.

    Still holding TBT from yesterday. I have a feeling that it should rise above $33 even if it is just making another lower high and will then make a lower low.

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  68. V just dropped below S2...ouch!

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  69. re: CREE:
    http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2010/pi2010099_505618.htm?campaign_id=yhoo

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  70. BAC below it's opening price.

    V...damn.

    REDF got .01 above it's high on 4/20. Hard to say, but I'd probably bailed at that point. Let's see if it's better I wasn't here.

    Overall market looking very weak right now, crude off, financials giving back all the daily gains, on and on....

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  71. I just checked back with the market, saw it tanking, and decided to take profits on the 200 shares of TBT I added yesterday at $31.90. I sold them at $32.85 a minute ago and immediately TBT spiked up to $33.

    It seems to be very sensitive to my actions: yesterday it tanked immediately after I bought another bunch of 200 shares at $32.15. I have the power! :)

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  72. Yeah, I'd have made a killing had I waited to sell mine, but I trust nothing anymore.

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  73. vb - i think we just need to be patient with CREE. it's currently being grouped in with the rest of the LED semiconductor sector that is highly leveraged to the LCD market. This makes up a tiny fraction of CREE's revenues so I'd say a dip from $80 to $48 has fairly priced that in. Keep in mind this has $12/share in cash. Also, if this tax writeoff on equipment goes through then it could help CREE out a lot as GE's LED lighting solutions will be coming out soon (GE licensed CREE's technology in their new bulbs back in April) and companies will be able to save significantly on these LED lighting solutions (and be enviro conscious at the same time).

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  74. Tranys in the red...

    TBT- Was just looking at that one. Might put a floor in the market here, buy crap, we're already below 1105, Dow basically flat.

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  75. I have SPY hitting the 200 on the button. Hard to believe we will have the guns to get through now.

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  76. i'd like to see spx make a nice move off 1103.87, with some vol.

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  77. OK, I admit it...Kinda sent a whinny e-mail to MOG re-energy. This was his responce...


    "Dont worry about the energy, give it a little time. We will see $100 oil over next year unless the economic maiaise extends abroad or Harry Reid is re-elected."

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  78. TNA is pretty damn red considering S&P is nicely green.

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  79. $100 oil is just what oil sands needs to happen. I still can't believe anyone can actually make money by extracting oil from sticky-gooey tarpit sand but whatever!

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  80. The next thing I expect to witness is oil moving to $10 while oil-sand companies do a moon shot...

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  81. Oil sands "work" @ $80. Best player in that group is SU.

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  82. Next little support I can find for V is about 65. Unreal. I WILL get into this one at some point and file it away.

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  83. TBT trying to break out to new highs. Me might not be done with this yet.

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  84. Oil sands "work" ($80) - Even when/if Harry Reid is re-elected? ;)

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  85. Everyone can wake up now. Close coming up...

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  86. Best chance we have for a good close will be lead by the financials. No other way.

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  87. CREE coming to life a little. I'll stick to my 3 day rule.

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  88. I'd almost rather have the market crash than this water torture...

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  89. Damn! I see that HNUZF missed my buy limit order by one penny!

    Well, instead I just purchased 300 shares of INTC at $18.06 and placed a sell stop limit order at $17.75/$17.74, just below yesterday's low.

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  90. WTF is this???/ INTC leading the charge :))

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  91. TOF- Did you see REDF's Q2 came out today?

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  92. Just as I was placing an order for PXP @ 24.14, they ran the stops right to it and bounced. Order still in.

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  93. spx holds just a bit above r1....another roller coaster day, but still no real vol

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  94. bro - pxp right at s1, buy it for a quick trade or a hold?

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  95. nsm has a nice qtr but as so many co's have been doing guides down near term outlook: "However, in the near term, slower growth in our end markets and distribution channel, along with some likely inventory reduction, will mute the seasonal growth that we would normally see in our business during this time of the year."

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  96. Re: Odds Off The Don't Pass Line newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4542 comments) on Thu, 09/09/2010 - 16:09 #68824 (in reply to #68786)
    I ended up (mentally) pacing back and forth for the final hour of trading. At the half-hour mark, I marked positions in OAKBX for transfer (back) into cash. (An additional reason for selecting OAKBX in the buy-and-hold accounts was the lack of any ST trading penalty.)

    Still holding AA/INTC.

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  97. mark - no i missed it...thanks for pointing it out.

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  98. Schwartznegger travels to China, S. Korea, and Japan:

    http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/menuitem.2af62ecb329d3d7733492d9253a0a0a0/?vgnextoid=aefac70d467fa210VgnVCM100000360a0a0aRCRD&ss=Companies&s=Business

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  99. This morning, when I saw the market move up and FCX move down, I decided to cancel my sell short stop order on it, as I was afraid that the order would get triggered and then FCX would rebound in sympathy for the general market. Now I decided to place that order again just below the low price for today, at $77.50/77.40.

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