It Don't Come Easy newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4560 comments) on Fri, 09/10/2010 - 19:35 #68946 http://tinyurl.com/yhr3bmo
Nothing comes easy in the markets. Ain't that the truth.
This blog has quietly returned to what takes any medium to the top- real drama in real time, no punches pulled.
Personally, the market feels like it's slowly wending its way through the Sonora Pass, with its gentle grades and sunlit pastures. Steep cliffs and spectacular drops, of course, await on the other side.
Re It Don't Come Easy Submitted by MarkW (1,822 Comments) on Fri, 9/10/2010 - 19.40 (in reply to #68746)
No it hasn't. I'm sure I speak for everyone here when I say that well though out trades with supporting documentation and certified results are much more helpful.
TOF- Damn. Those are very similar! Can you imagine that guy in a restaurant.....
THANK YOU for SEATING me. I'll have the PASTA SPECIAL without ONIONS. I've worked in THREE RESTAURANTS as a WAITER, COOK, and.....umm...DISHWASHER. If the FOOD isn't good, I will NOT APOLOGIZE for asking it to be TAKEN BACK.
Am I right when I gather Obama has planned to embark on the campaign trail next week?
I don't consider this a presidential duty, it's a political duty, so let me just say in advance, I don't anticipate the campaign activity will be supportive of equities prices.
Does WDC know something positive about the economy that we(I) don't?
CB- Same here. The more simple my trading thesis the better I seem to do.
Let me ask you guys this, and I'm serious...I know, hard to believe. Is the trade BC put on today anyway for a professional manager to trade OPM? If you read that and he had you cash, what would you think?
"I already said I don’t have all the answers. I also said I have a gut feel. But something’s up here and I awoke in the middle of the night with my antennae flashing or whatever they do when my mind gets to thinking there’s about to be some big things happening. First thing I saw was the German bourse opening with Deutsche Bank down about -5%, and I thought, with the other stocks flat at the open, wow, what’s that all about. I googled Deutsche Bank and noted DB was down about -3% yesterday in New York and voila here is the reason. It’s called dilution. But; not just dilution for DB. Think about it. Yesterday afternoon, there was a broad sell-off in the NY market. I now can link the dots.
Now I can go back to bed. Asia-Pacific equity markets were mostly up. Europe started weak, and then recovered, but I thought, for how long. Oh, the Bulls will put up a fight today, but I’m going back to bed comforted with a very aggressive 60% portfolio weighting in a 3x market index short I took yesterday."
That was YESTERDAY'S news and he has to google it this morning? BD's potential offering was all over the place. Of course it was going to sell off. It sold off here YESTERDAY. BTW DB closed up today .85%.
PAL - Yes, I took gains on PAL and held onto CADC/GMO b/c I would like to add there at or below recent lows.
Although I don't have a high degree of confidence on the long side going into this week, my backup plan involves a longer time horizon for the GMO/CADC positions, which I consider core positions, although my GMO position still is relatively on the large side and should have been trimmed slightly near this week's high.
Therefore, I'm more inclined to add to my CADC position than GMO but that depends of course on how the situation progresses from here.
There are other options of course, such as hedging, etc., have to wait and see how things unfold but I do anticipate some upside follow-through prior to a slide into the latter half of next week.
Still looking to short silver, for instance, especially as it continues on this parabolic path to all time heights.
Why I even bother attempting to forecast any of this I don't know, probably just human nature?
Thanks CP. I'm kinda thinking the same thing. All of the energy plays are still at the bottom of the channel, so I wont hesitate to re-open them. All of this grand thinking always seem to get in the way of price action. Remember last year. "OH boy, just wait until after labor day and all the big players are back." Then, "OH boy, this week was just a short one and most are still on vacation. Just wait till next week."
Only price action matters. I am worried about the volume though. I'm thinking a lot of weak hands are in the market right now.
No offense to your death grip TOF. I admire you guts.
"That was YESTERDAY'S news and he has to google it this morning?"
I thought the same thing off the bat this morning but wasn't going to mention it. I really try to ignore BC's posted trades b/c they rarely seem to work. I do agree though that financials action seems to be losing momentum and we probably wouldn't have taken this recent trip to the bottom without Europe's woes (Germany dragged their heels for short-term selfish reasons, IMO).
So we're still at the mercy of the little child that Europe loves to be.
So how many different governments and armies, etc. are there in Europe going all different directions, each one of which having their own agenda, anyway, has anyone stopped to think about the nightmare of trying to coordinate and finance these opposing forces while maintaining a unified currency? Has Europe become a logistical nightmare?
I don't know, but I'm getting fed up with the constant back and forth.
Illini- I was hoping you'd stop by. I saw your post at CC about having to cover an SSO short. Can you explain the conversation a little more. I'd be irate if it wasn't a margin call.
To follow up on the SSO short. At Schwab, you can't BUY ultra's using margin. This of course is not true in the settlement period. Perhaps the SEC is going to say you can't short ultra's because the HAVE to always be in margin??
The call was a heads up and explanation to a later e-mail notice (e-mail was just that, a bare bones notice with no explanation).
Apparently big lenders of stock to short sellers have the right to call for it back thru the SEC process. The SEC then sends out this order to every brokerage house to comply based on some kind of random allocation based on how much of that stock they have borrowed. My measly 200 shares of SSO was hit.
Near as I can figure (that aint too deep), someone wants their lent 2x ultra shares back so they can sell them. I just hope I can buy them back before a deluge of selling hits Monday. I may also sell my counter longs if I want to remain at least neutral in this sideways market.
Mark....PUG?? BP yeah but its brave to short a company with assets in the ground. I like to short the dogs, like in retail, like in shoes, like PSS (Payless) which has a lot of debt and no redeeming qualities. Might be a bit late for that one though.
mark, thanks. Next time, we take a caravan up to sonoma and spend the night. (wives too) I can be a tag along, no prob. I am sure all of your spouses are as special
Mark- I'm watching the U-BB turn as well. Was looking at some Fib Lvls... 1039 - 1108 - 1129 - 1150 - 1219 1129 is early Aug highs (the head in the H&S pattern), 1150 is the Doug Kass 'top of range'. Will watch to see how it pushes through the 1115 (200DMA) lvl and the 1129 lvl.
The following comment reminds me of my previous now bankrupt employer that was once a sleepy energy company that turned into an investment bank, hedge fund, or whatever. The following comment was written by Michael Lewis in Vanity Fair. The link to it is on Barry Ritholtz's site. Mark to market and securitization are such scary terms.
"The investment bankers also taught the Greek-government officials how to securitize future receipts from the national lottery, highway tolls, airport landing fees, and even funds granted to the country by the European Union. Any future stream of income that could be identified was sold for cash up front, and spent. "
It Don't Come Easy newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4560 comments) on Fri, 09/10/2010 - 19:35 #68946
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/yhr3bmo
Nothing comes easy in the markets. Ain't that the truth.
This blog has quietly returned to what takes any medium to the top- real drama in real time, no punches pulled.
Personally, the market feels like it's slowly wending its way through the Sonora Pass, with its gentle grades and sunlit pastures. Steep cliffs and spectacular drops, of course, await on the other side.
Best to all for the weekend.
Kyle!!! SPX upper BB has turned UP!!
ReplyDeleteQuickly looking back, because frankly I don't really care, I think I came out ahead on the day. Close.
Mark that Youtube post was hilarious. Reminds me of the Dwight Shrute speech from The Office:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXbbGycK_L4
Re It Don't Come Easy Submitted by MarkW (1,822
ReplyDeleteComments) on Fri, 9/10/2010 - 19.40 (in reply to
#68746)
No it hasn't. I'm sure I speak for everyone here
when I say that well though out trades with supporting documentation and certified results
are much more helpful.
NEXT!....
TOF- Damn. Those are very similar! Can you imagine that guy in a restaurant.....
ReplyDeleteTHANK YOU for SEATING me. I'll have the PASTA SPECIAL without ONIONS. I've worked in THREE RESTAURANTS as a WAITER, COOK, and.....umm...DISHWASHER. If the FOOD isn't good, I will NOT APOLOGIZE for asking it to be TAKEN BACK.
NEXT!!....
I try not to think. It just gets me in trouble.
ReplyDeleteAm I right when I gather Obama has planned to embark on the campaign trail next week?
ReplyDeleteI don't consider this a presidential duty, it's a political duty, so let me just say in advance, I don't anticipate the campaign activity will be supportive of equities prices.
Does WDC know something positive about the economy that we(I) don't?
OK, come on guys!! How many of you checked to see if I posted that at CC??? Fess up!
ReplyDeleteBut your right 2nd. I read the comments today and they were interesting and timely.
CB- Same here. The more simple my trading thesis the better I seem to do.
ReplyDeleteLet me ask you guys this, and I'm serious...I know, hard to believe. Is the trade BC put on today anyway for a professional manager to trade OPM? If you read that and he had you cash, what would you think?
CP- So I guess you took profits today on PAL and held GMO/CADC??
ReplyDeleteThis is the part that makes me go Hun???
ReplyDelete"I already said I don’t have all the answers. I also said I have a gut feel. But something’s up here and I awoke in the middle of the night with my antennae flashing or whatever they do when my mind gets to thinking there’s about to be some big things happening. First thing I saw was the German bourse opening with Deutsche Bank down about -5%, and I thought, with the other stocks flat at the open, wow, what’s that all about. I googled Deutsche Bank and noted DB was down about -3% yesterday in New York and voila here is the reason. It’s called dilution. But; not just dilution for DB. Think about it. Yesterday afternoon, there was a broad sell-off in the NY market. I now can link the dots.
Now I can go back to bed. Asia-Pacific equity markets were mostly up. Europe started weak, and then recovered, but I thought, for how long. Oh, the Bulls will put up a fight today, but I’m going back to bed comforted with a very aggressive 60% portfolio weighting in a 3x market index short I took yesterday."
That was YESTERDAY'S news and he has to google it this morning? BD's potential offering was all over the place. Of course it was going to sell off. It sold off here YESTERDAY. BTW DB closed up today .85%.
PAL - Yes, I took gains on PAL and held onto CADC/GMO b/c I would like to add there at or below recent lows.
ReplyDeleteAlthough I don't have a high degree of confidence on the long side going into this week, my backup plan involves a longer time horizon for the GMO/CADC positions, which I consider core positions, although my GMO position still is relatively on the large side and should have been trimmed slightly near this week's high.
Therefore, I'm more inclined to add to my CADC position than GMO but that depends of course on how the situation progresses from here.
There are other options of course, such as hedging, etc., have to wait and see how things unfold but I do anticipate some upside follow-through prior to a slide into the latter half of next week.
Still looking to short silver, for instance, especially as it continues on this parabolic path to all time heights.
Why I even bother attempting to forecast any of this I don't know, probably just human nature?
Thanks CP. I'm kinda thinking the same thing. All of the energy plays are still at the bottom of the channel, so I wont hesitate to re-open them. All of this grand thinking always seem to get in the way of price action. Remember last year. "OH boy, just wait until after labor day and all the big players are back." Then, "OH boy, this week was just a short one and most are still on vacation. Just wait till next week."
ReplyDeleteOnly price action matters. I am worried about the volume though. I'm thinking a lot of weak hands are in the market right now.
No offense to your death grip TOF. I admire you guts.
"That was YESTERDAY'S news and he has to google it this morning?"
ReplyDeleteI thought the same thing off the bat this morning but wasn't going to mention it. I really try to ignore BC's posted trades b/c they rarely seem to work. I do agree though that financials action seems to be losing momentum and we probably wouldn't have taken this recent trip to the bottom without Europe's woes (Germany dragged their heels for short-term selfish reasons, IMO).
So we're still at the mercy of the little child that Europe loves to be.
So how many different governments and armies, etc. are there in Europe going all different directions, each one of which having their own agenda, anyway, has anyone stopped to think about the nightmare of trying to coordinate and finance these opposing forces while maintaining a unified currency? Has Europe become a logistical nightmare?
I don't know, but I'm getting fed up with the constant back and forth.
What is amazing about the BC mid night revelation is that several responders were fawning all over him, thanking him for his nightmare dream analysis.
ReplyDeleteIllini- I was hoping you'd stop by. I saw your post at CC about having to cover an SSO short. Can you explain the conversation a little more. I'd be irate if it wasn't a margin call.
ReplyDeleteTHANKS!!
This is a site I think is balanced. It's funny, I kinda think this is how the next few months will play out...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/10/using-the-past-to-predict-the-future.html
right 2nd, Nothing comes easy.
ReplyDeleteRight now, i feel like spaghetti
Had a flat tire on major interstate in rush hour traffic, then it was night and then a huge rainstorm.
must be a sign I need a tahoe - Sonora sounds good too.
To follow up on the SSO short. At Schwab, you can't BUY ultra's using margin. This of course is not true in the settlement period. Perhaps the SEC is going to say you can't short ultra's because the HAVE to always be in margin??
ReplyDeleteVB- If you come back, let me know. No way I'm missing another dinner!!
ReplyDeleteFWIW..Even though I didn't sell REDF @ 3.44 or higher, dinner is still on me. We'll toast TOF.
The call was a heads up and explanation to a later e-mail notice (e-mail was just that, a bare bones notice with no explanation).
ReplyDeleteApparently big lenders of stock to short sellers have the right to call for it back thru the SEC process. The SEC then sends out this order to every brokerage house to comply based on some kind of random allocation based on how much of that stock they have borrowed. My measly 200 shares of SSO was hit.
Near as I can figure (that aint too deep),
someone wants their lent 2x ultra shares back so they can sell them. I just hope I can buy them back before a deluge of selling hits Monday. I may also sell my counter longs if I want to remain at least neutral in this sideways market.
THANKS illini- Now THAT makes sense. The lender of the shares always has to right to call them.
ReplyDeleteHow come we never play the obvious shorts like BP and PUG?
ReplyDeleteSorry...PCG.
ReplyDeleteMark....PUG?? BP yeah but its brave to short a company with assets in the ground. I like to short the dogs, like in retail, like in shoes, like PSS (Payless) which has a lot of debt and no redeeming qualities. Might be a bit late for that one though.
ReplyDeleteOh, PCG...but you have to pay a big dividend. And it does have its place at the public spigot.
ReplyDeleteLook at the volume today in PCG. That's institutional money coming out for a high divy player.
ReplyDeleteillini- Yep on the divy, but only if you hold into X-dividend.
ReplyDeleteI do have to say it feels good to be in cash on a Friday. Thanks for looking out for me 2nd.
ReplyDeletemark, thanks. Next time, we take a caravan up to sonoma and spend the night. (wives too) I can be a tag along, no prob. I am sure all of your spouses are as special
ReplyDeleteVB- Sounds great....Or we could still do our SF dinner. I'd love to go on a Sat. as I have friends I can visit during the day.
ReplyDeleteEveryone have a great day. We're off for the day, soccer of course, and wont return until this evening.
Still, come on! NO one looked to see if I posted that comment at CC? I know I would have :).
Mark- I'm watching the U-BB turn as well. Was looking at some Fib Lvls...
ReplyDelete1039 - 1108 - 1129 - 1150 - 1219
1129 is early Aug highs (the head in the H&S pattern), 1150 is the Doug Kass 'top of range'. Will watch to see how it pushes through the 1115 (200DMA) lvl and the 1129 lvl.
thx for pointing that out guys, just looked and yep, that sucker is just starting to turn up.
ReplyDeleteportfolio update:
Equities: 58%
Cash: 33%
Bonds: 9%
need to make the call about allocation as we head into q4 -but i'm a big fat chicken.
The following comment reminds me of my previous now bankrupt employer that was once a sleepy energy company that turned into an investment bank, hedge fund, or whatever. The following comment was written by Michael Lewis in Vanity Fair. The link to it is on Barry Ritholtz's site. Mark to market and securitization are such scary terms.
ReplyDelete"The investment bankers also taught the Greek-government officials how to securitize future receipts from the national lottery, highway tolls, airport landing fees, and even funds granted to the country by the European Union. Any future stream of income that could be identified was sold for cash up front, and spent. "