Tuesday, October 5, 2010

10/6/10 Easy Double SF Giants

On the other hand, what hasn't been working well are stocks which have (IMO) great prospects once the economy takes off, including a few based in the Bay Area.

I'll go on record as saying these four more or less double in price by October 2011:

GPS 37
INTC 38
V 150
WFC 52

62 comments:

  1. 2nd - those doubles assume the market / economy takes off right?

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  2. Of course. But I'm also on record as thinking it does- nothing moves in a straight line, but I believe your kids will come of age during the next Roaring Twenties.

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  3. Otherwise I don't see that happening. In fact, I'd be willing to place a friendly wager on none of them reaching those prices.

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  4. 2nd_ave, I hate to say it, but I don't think the economy will "take off" until 2020, since high levels of government deficit will inevitably slow it down to a crawl and will make recession much more frequent.

    I go on record that we'll have another recession no later than 2012 and a major drop in the stock market no later than early 2012.

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  5. Sure. I'll bet you a post on this blog next October. If prices come within 10% of posted targets, I get bragging rights. If they don't, I'll compose some type of mea culpa post- of course, if prices come within even 30% of those targets, I'll probably be composing on my way to the bank ;)

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  6. Tonight's the second time I've used Paypal this week.

    Hey guys, so seriously, are we headed up again tomorrow? It seems like it to me except at some point we're going to move south again prior to the employment report, right? Or maybe we'll rally into the report and sell the news?

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  7. Hey- the more doubt attached to my predictions, the better. That's the only way we get there ;)

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  8. CP- I have no idea. But I'm betting we see at least a little down side soon, which is why I opened a position in TZA after hours.

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  9. Just to give the trend a little more room, I moved down my stop on CEF just below the lowest point yesterday, at $16.70.

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  10. 2nd - I'm bullish on the markets in general but not nearly as bullish as that. Who knows though. Look at how quickly the Hang Seng is shooting up...anything can happen. All I know is I think I'm done shorting things. I'd probably be up 100 fold over the past year and a half if I didn't try to get cute and time every single move.

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  11. 2nd- WFC was going to do my loan. Same for you? The players in this area have gotten really small. V...no matter what crap Congress throws at these guys the bottom line is we are moving away from currency transactions to plastic ones. Both credit and debit. I haven't carried cash for years, nor have I wrote a check. V has insider ownership of 65%. I like your bet on these two.

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  12. Just to be clear. FINVIZ has insider ownership for V @ 40%. Vickers 55%.

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  13. Interesting. I'm not really sure how much weight I give the WSJ's money flow data. JPM/BAC/WFC/C/V all had imbalances on the buy side today. The top 3 selling on strength? JPM/BAC/WFC, C/V were also on the list.

    Top buying on weakness?..No surprise here I guess. AXP.

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  14. 2009 taxes are finally done. Gotta pay another $10k fed + more to the state. 2009 was a real good year.

    I'm sentencing myself to a 3 day suspension for not stopping out when the stop said give up. I need to find a way to CONSISTENTLY make money, or I should just go racing or sailing or lay on the couch and enjoy what I've got for a living.

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  15. PS: Thats a 3 day sentence to PAPER TRADE all the accounts, just like they were live. The good thing about me is that I get just as greedy or panicked when its fake, so hopefully I'll learn something along the way.

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  16. In addition to placing a sell stop under all my CEF, I also decided to place a sell stop order under all my GLD at $129.5/$129.4

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  17. Landry-

    Random Thoughts:

    WOW. The market rallied nicely out of its short-term trading range.
    This action puts the major indices (and not so major indices) at new multi-month highs.

    As usual, follow through will be key.

    So far, so good though.

    I especially like the sector action. It confirmed all the "looking good under the hood" action I have been seeing lately. In fact, 239 out of 239 of the sectors I track ended higher on Tuesday. I can't every remember seeing this. Maybe in 1999.

    I like the low volatility fake out. I'll cover this in more detail in Thursday's chart show. If you can't wait, I covered it earlier this year. See my website for archives. And again, I apologize for giving away all this stuff.

    Futures are flat and off of their best levels pre-market.

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  18. Adding to TZA @ 24.15 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4706 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 - 09:39 #70879
    I haven't given up on the bull scenario, not by a long shot. Just trying to game the pullbacks that ultimately allow the indexes to move higher.

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  19. VXX @ 16.24 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4707 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 - 09:41 #70880
    For the same reason stated above.

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  20. Seeing if the July low can hold on EQIX. What's up with RAX?

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  21. market looks like it's readying itself for another shot higher. i see financials getting a bid now.

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  22. however tech is stalling.

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  23. http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10880639/1/google-paypal-set-on-android-deal.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

    Yet another reason why eBay is a terrific long term hold. If I didn't see so many potential multi bag investment opportunities out there I would be 100% in eBay.

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  24. Stinky on EQIX @ 70.51...Although it might not be that stinky after all.

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  25. All right TOF...Bidding EBAY @ 24.09 @ S2.

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  26. ADP employment report not so hot. When you're not, you're not!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bzewk-FMgS0

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  27. Looking to add to V @ 74.10...S2

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  28. Incredible how something can move sideways for such a very long time and then on no real enlightening news, just rocket...

    Makes me wonder if I know what important news is or if maybe I'm out of the loop.

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  29. Title Insurance - So if MBS values are in jeopardy as a result of the banking industry not having access to proper ownership documentation, wouldn't title insurance companies be taking a big hit right about now until the issues were resolved?

    FNF - Doesn't look to me like their chart has suffered to any extremes lately...

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  30. ABK - "Lehman Settles $6.1 Billion In Ambac Bankruptcy Claims"

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  31. Wow check out CRM. I wonder if people finally came to their senses on its valuation.

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  32. Just purchased one November $90 put on FCX for $3.90, so as to hedge a little my gains on the long side recently.

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  33. Just sold 1/3 of my CEF at $17.31. I'll experiment with two ways for protecting my profits in gold/silver: scaling out of my CEF and then using a trailing stop for my GLD.

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  34. Re: Adding to TZA @ 24.15/Closed 24.90
    Submitted by 2nd_ave (4709 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 - 13:23 #70897 (in reply to #70879)
    ...

    edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
    Re: VXX @ 16.24/ Closed @ 16.56 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4709 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 - 13:23 #70898 (in reply to #70880)

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  35. FCX and the banks are up...I doubt this market closes in the red.

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  36. Do we want to buy Ambac here?

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  37. "check out CRM. I wonder if people finally came to their senses on its valuation."

    I can't help but think people aren't being sensible due to overwhelming fear, or maybe I just don't understand how market price-cycles normally work b/c I've never had the benefit of witnessing a price-cycle driven market?

    Somehow I think markets have been driven primarily by fear for nearly two years now, so I'm willing to believe CRM (or most anything) is irrationally priced most of the time.

    And then there are the near useless analyst calls that the market doesn't follow to any degree of consistency.

    Seems like market pricing mechanisms have been completely thrown out the window in favor of some mysterious crystal ball somewhere, this is FUBAR....

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  38. Chicken..... silver bidding 23

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  39. GMO...looking good

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  40. ABK - Hell if I know about that one except I'm pretty sure soon as I buy it'll take an immediate dump.

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  41. I hope TOF's right about a green close, this market market is totally mindless.

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  42. Today's chart just looks like a series of lower highs and lower lows to me...

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  43. TOF- You still constructive on NLS?

    High flying techs getting killed today. All on the back of EQIX? CRM/NFLX/RAX/LLNW/INFN...etc.

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  44. Imbalances...

    BUY- AA/C/BAC/DVN

    Sell- APC

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  45. REE gunning to fill it's 6.75 gap?

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  46. speculative positions in bonds and metals
    Submitted by DavidV (27 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 - 15:53 #70913

    From David Rosenberg today:

    There are now, according to the latest Commitment of Traders report, 79,796 short contracts on U.S. Treasuries on the Chicago Board of Trade, and there are 78,361 long contracts. So how is that a bond bubble exactly?

    There are now 70,638 speculative long contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for the euro, versus 35,308 net short positions. Come again? There are twice as many bullish positions on this piece of you-know-what as their bearish contracts? Yikes! The dollar is hugely oversold here.

    And there are now 297,272 net speculative long positions in gold on the COMEX compared with 39,623 net shorts. This has become a very crowded trade, my friends. Silver is far less on the radar screen.

    There are also nearly twice as many speculative bulls as there are bears with respect to copper. The global boom trade is on.

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  47. REE - I suspect it's only going to retest the 20SMA.

    Way too hot of a potato for my comfort.

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  48. Damn, here we are nearly one week into October already... Wonder how the little investors are holding up these days?

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  49. Who says these banks aren't still inventing ways to suck their customers dry? Only now they're just slightly more brazen:

    "Sometimes life can get really hectic. With so many things to worry about, it's easy to miss a bill payment. Now, you can pay a bill that is due today with Quick Payment from Bank of America.

    With Quick Payment you can:

    * Make a same-day bill payment when you really need to
    * Avoid late fees and costly service interruptions

    All for a $10.00 service fee"

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  50. Mark - I still am holding NLS...I bought it at $1.35 I think. I wouldn't say I'm constructive but I think if they do manage to turn things around then it could be an absolute home run. So I would say if you want to put money into it then keep the position small because they could go under. They were killed because their lender wouldn't extend credit to their customers. They just signed a new deal with GE Capital that will allow their customers to buy more products from them. That should help sales. Even if they get back to like 1/3 of what they were previously, that's earnings of $0.60 to $0.70/share. That would equate to a $10 stock price. So I would say there's a 50% chance it goes under and a 50% chance it goes to $10. Not a bad payout if it happens and worth putting a little money into it. There are dozens of companies like this that I think are worth taking a flyer on. Just put some in 5 of them. If one of them pans out it will cover the investment of the other 4 easily.

    ACMR, RAS are just a couple...

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  51. Well, it was a long day. The disk drive on the main laptop failed. The only thing I lost was recent and old pics, which weren't backed up.

    Spent the morning papertrading on the backup laptop instead, and ended the day up $3730 in the pretend world using a max of $600 loss stop per position, and a $100k pretend account. I played /GC the gold contract, mostly long, sometimes short, and played a max of 6 contracts. Max drawdown was therefore $600, because any more and I stopped out. Win/loss percentage was very high, over 80%. I only stopped out 3 times, and there were 90 buys, so thats at least 15 or 20 trades.

    Later in the day I dissassembled the laptop and pulled the drive apart and found that I could read data off it using one of my linux towers, so I got my pics, and basically grabbed everything else I'd put on the drive while I was at it. I'll get a replacement drive off Ebay tonight, and ordered a recovery DVD from HP.

    It was a lot of orders to do the stops and cancel them/move them up, etc, but it did work and prevented me from easily doing dumb things...

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  52. Oh, and I found out I owed the state an additional $7k for 2009. Oh well, could have been worse.

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  53. Vad offered a couple of sentences from his up-coming Taoist Trader course...

    [11:55] {Threei} or, to give you a sneak preview of the upcoming course, quote (unedited):

    [11:55] {Threei} A winning trader accepts the market for what it is a loosely structured highly liquid environment governed by numerous forces interacting in a principally non-computable way, where observable patterns obey the laws of human psychology and defy the false premises of stiff logic.

    [11:56] {Threei} He enjoys the process of deciphering the way in which Tao manifests itself in the markets; he is enthralled by the elegance and ruthlessness of these manifestations.

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  54. Re: speculative positions in bonds and metals new
    Submitted by DavidV (28 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 - 18:21 #70921 (in reply to #70915)

    Good question, BillySundance. David Rosenberg was probably using the "aggregated" definition of positions, which are: commercial and noncommercial (a.k.a. speculative). The commercial holders are those who are "engaged in business activities hedged by the use of the futures or option markets," while speculative holders are not "officially" hedging themselves.

    Recently, CTFC started providing more disaggregated Commitment of Traders (CoT) reports, which classify holders as follows: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, Managed Money, Other Reportables and Nonreportable (who do not meet the minimum position size requirement for reporting). So in fact it may be most interesting to look at positions by "Managed Money" and "Nonreportable" holders, who represent the crowd. In order to see their track record, below are some samples of the net long position in these two categories from the previous CoT reports:

    February 16 (intermediate bottom for gold): 157K & 31K
    June 22 (intermediate top for gold): 219K & 50K
    July 27 (intermediate bottom for gold): 153K & 39K
    September 28 (latest report): 224K & 45K

    So the size of the current net long position in the "crowd" category is at the level of the previous gold top.

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  55. historical net long positions by the crowd in copper
    Submitted by DavidV (30 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 - 18:45 #70929

    Net long position in copper futures for Managed Money & Nonreportables

    January 5 (intermediate-term top): 17K & 2000

    February 2 (intermediate-term bottom): 16.5K & 450

    April 20 (intermediate-term top): 22.5K & 560

    June 22: (intermediate-term bottom) 3K & -2600

    September 28 (latest report): 29K & 1600

    So I would say that copper is even more ripe for a serious correction now than gold.

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  56. "Even though gold and silver have broken into new 52-week highs, platinum, copper, and other base metals haven't broken into new territory."

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